Episode Transcript
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0:00
I. John, it's time for everyone's
0:02
favorite corner. It is time for
0:04
random anniversary corner. Or excited.
0:07
Oh no. What's
0:09
what's worse? This or less puns
0:11
the that think those plans or
0:14
worse. But ah ha ha, that's
0:16
what that's a heartless John. How
0:19
and the earth of the of
0:21
you See how that works. The
0:23
see it now. Ah, a lotta
0:26
right. Concentrate people. So odd. Atp
0:28
Episode Four Hundred Seventy Six dated
0:31
the thirtieth of March, Twenty Twenty
0:33
Two Two years ago. Now John
0:35
absolutely blindsided. Us by announcing he
0:38
had gone independent. So. John have
0:40
less two years then really? is that was a
0:42
date yet early? That's that's what I wrote down
0:45
anyway. so I sure hope of Hr I really
0:47
haven't yet learned by now. Trust Casey with any
0:49
kind of anniversary. Chances are he knows it better
0:51
than we do. Man, I'm trust but verify Let
0:53
me check. Ah, maybe
0:56
that's what. Maybe that's when I talked about it on the show
0:58
as of March Thirtieth. Or I did. I visited the blog posts
1:00
at the same day. House. Last year's been.
1:02
Now you can time not very into adversaries it
1:04
because if you had asked me how long it
1:07
had been a be like. It's. Gotta
1:09
be over a year now. Ride for the
1:11
prime a be right carry out An idea
1:13
of the President. I guess it's gone Okay
1:15
again. I'm the only. Thing.
1:17
I have to think about as like okay there was the
1:19
tax year. Where. I had job to job
1:21
income plus self employment income than there was a
1:23
taxi or what. I just had self employment income.
1:26
And though I remember those two things
1:29
as being different actors and or
1:31
is annoying but otherwise are Now I'm
1:33
hanging in there. said I've had a
1:35
thing. Six What I'm saying overwhelming paying
1:38
big college bills, thinking about the second
1:40
kid entering college at the same time.
1:42
the first one a stolen car. just
1:45
slightly terrifying. So yeah, but I have
1:47
any Atp.effect for as not a up.
1:51
Lion, you're You're enjoying life. I mean I'm not
1:53
actually here to interrogate your finances. Despite what it
1:55
sounds like, you're you're enjoying life. You're still happy
1:57
you to remain afternoon see us does every. The
2:00
Nog. Not exactly. I mean the
2:02
the level of stress is. Still,
2:05
Higher than having like heads out as
2:08
I feel ago the acclimation period to
2:10
being self employed and I'm still a
2:12
sense of i threw that picked. Up
2:15
with everything you know you'd like to eat.
2:18
it used to it. I
2:20
don't I guess that was acclimation period for
2:22
me as as we having a regular job
2:24
and self employment income which is very hectic
2:27
but then eventually was just too much. Ah
2:29
and there's no getting used to the idea
2:31
that the only income you have it your
2:33
self employment income is. I think.
2:36
Difficult. Like balancing how much how how
2:38
forensically you are trying to work to make
2:41
that happen and looking for other things or
2:43
whatever at the same time As I don't
2:45
like this I I would imagine that I
2:47
would have less stress than I am currently
2:49
experiencing but it's still us them when I
2:52
was doing two things at once. So it
2:54
says that that a net positive. Ah
2:58
let's do some follow up our we're breaking news due
3:00
to do do to do today do that we have
3:02
to be to be Dc lottery results and I am
3:04
overjoyed to tell you that for me it seems ever
3:06
was no invites me. I. Also
3:08
don't have unlimited was also not invited threw
3:10
for three the other. like the lottery it's
3:13
like how many people with I was like
3:15
maybe two thousand. Twenty five hundred is right
3:17
as like half the number, less than half
3:19
the number that used to be like I
3:22
won their division or is the not at
3:24
Apple Park. Ah so it's very few tickets
3:26
for a very large number of applicants. So
3:29
does to be expected or well And I
3:31
really I can't complain because I have gone
3:33
to so many to everybody sees like since
3:35
and I I still absolutely love whenever. We
3:38
get a press imitation that that's wonderful.
3:40
I kind of feel bad taking on
3:42
as a developer. Tickets. You. Know
3:44
because there are certain people who who like I think
3:47
deserve it more than I do have been to so
3:49
many so I'm glad and on a level they didn't
3:51
get the developer take up you rather go to someone
3:53
who had like their first time or and or else
3:55
I hope the a press access to that doesn't take
3:58
a dump it again. The
4:00
way I join us some feedback and regard
4:02
to Affinity Designer Hi, what's going on there.
4:05
Are both may have to show last episode of my
4:07
Struggles with the Sex During App and how. Didn't
4:10
see my god a bunch of the operation some had
4:12
like like the conflicted with each other you could do
4:14
one thing and not the other are you to them
4:16
separately but when you combine them on cancel out the
4:18
other and with about are. Striking.
4:20
A path me outside of shape but then
4:22
once it stops being a shape or the
4:24
stroke moves to be centered on the path
4:26
and said on the outside no sign of
4:28
frustrating. Ah couple of people road and with
4:30
possible solutions and I said at the risk.
4:33
To wait for the actual shirt designs because
4:35
they had long since been completed and submitted
4:37
are still on as as they didn't play
4:39
right of I was curious had know how
4:41
to do it's a marker suggestion. Oh
4:43
he's is he the terminology her pin
4:45
code I believe I. Get.
4:47
That will work is just different vocabulary to
4:50
the every app called the something Different on.
4:52
One. Thing that was tripping me up an affinity
4:54
designer is there is a thing called convert to
4:56
Curves that will take shape and courage to a
4:58
bunch of mine segments and I was hoping that
5:01
would do it for me but it didn't Ah,
5:03
but the the thing I need to use was
5:05
called expand Stroke and if any designer and it's
5:07
only going on about the teacher, I had to
5:09
use that feature when I made eighty pixels shirt
5:11
like that we sold our last sale. expand struck
5:14
with the key for me for getting that to
5:16
work. But since making that shirt and now apparently
5:18
Casey like I totally forgot about expense that must
5:20
have been obsessed with Convert Curves. And
5:22
convert to curves on doing it. So yes,
5:24
I want expand. Stroke does is it takes
5:26
Whatever your stroke is the you got your
5:28
shape and you're struggling on the outside of
5:30
the line. Freezing Me Sake, Expand Stroke. It.
5:33
Takes that stroke and turns it into a
5:35
funny sit closed polygon rights. Obviously it draws
5:37
an outline around the strokes of you draw
5:39
stroke that was just a line it would
5:42
just like on a single line segment an
5:44
era be a fat stroke on other has
5:46
some you know centered on the line but
5:48
when you turn into expand stroke entrance to
5:50
a rectangle. So. That the line that was
5:52
through the middle is gone and all you have is
5:54
a rectangle it outlines. The strokes are expense rock ludicrous.
5:57
once you do that. He was the ability to edit
5:59
the stroke as a. The why to be
6:01
will still said that when they do it they are We save
6:03
the stroke in a layer below. Its or have you ever want
6:05
to go back to the struck you can beat of high ballet
6:07
or does all sorts of things like that So that's one expand
6:09
struck. A veto wrote
6:11
in with a solution using and
6:13
fifty designer peach, peach or is
6:15
also in know sort of another
6:17
name I called offset path using
6:20
the contour tool. Ah, this is
6:22
important if he wants to. Say.
6:24
You make a pass and you want to draw
6:26
path around that and you.is one like stroke the
6:29
outside a line. You can actually move that path
6:31
inside the sabre outside the say by an arbitrary
6:33
amount and you can do that to sort of
6:35
simulate the outside struggling with no control how far
6:37
from the original path the line his. Arm
6:40
and so it. When a recenter the cell have you
6:42
moved out have a distance it over center and still
6:44
be on the outside. That was interesting. I'm not sure
6:46
I would use that. could I be on the zebra?
6:48
It's good to know because. Ah the
6:50
solution I thought that was most interesting
6:53
and maybe for new to that are
6:55
only was from Julian just meant ah
6:57
who suggested using a create compound. Which.
6:59
Is a feature Nothing new designer where.
7:02
Are you take a bunch of state shapes
7:04
instead of like using the bullying operates on
7:07
shapes Are you take like a circle and
7:09
you overlay with a rectangle and you do
7:11
of us attraction and on a rectangle take
7:13
a chunk out of several right? Those features
7:16
are just under things under, But the destructive.
7:18
You can apparently put them in a nested
7:20
layer and essentially do non destructive bullying operations.
7:22
Say like this layer group are all these
7:25
layers apply. With these billion operations giving you
7:27
a resulting object, they retains all of it's
7:29
flexibility. So. It is like it's in
7:31
our one object, cutting another object, cutting out another
7:34
object. But all the objects. It's not destruct. All
7:36
the objects are still. In their whole
7:38
at a double form a new to sort. Seeing the union of
7:40
them and not at all was really cool. And.
7:45
The Ice I didn't actually try Navy's on
7:47
the products I'd already messed up all my
7:49
path and himself says mutilated them until they
7:51
are to visit. but I will try to
7:53
remember all this for the future. And by
7:55
the way Create compound is also place or
7:57
also pat Pat comes in handy because if
7:59
you haven't already their shape. My.
8:01
God they trample on some of the demo videos as
8:03
the government a snowman shape like three balls and top
8:05
of each other to there are stuck together like snowman.
8:08
And. If you were to try to.
8:11
Draw. Big Snowman That a little snowman inside
8:13
the big snowman. such that when you put
8:15
the little snowman inside the big snowman, You
8:18
get my gotta stroke along the outside. You very
8:20
quickly find that the only ship that works with
8:22
as a circle and any said that is not
8:24
a circle. if you simply scale the safe and
8:26
put it inside itself you won't get it even
8:29
stroke all around. Because that's
8:31
not the way geometry works. You instead have to
8:33
have a specific tool that lets you offset the
8:35
past And so he's off that path to make
8:37
your. Smaller. Snowman shape that
8:39
will. Work. And finally, Christen
8:41
Meyer said I can confirm that Adobe
8:43
Illustrator has also treated open shaping close
8:45
Eight strokes, definitely for the last twenty
8:47
years. To. As twenty plus
8:49
years or so probably this is a our. Cultural.
8:55
Traditions? maybe invective drawing programs, but if
8:57
you don't know, it's like I didn't
8:59
It is quite surprising and annoying. Some.
9:02
Fun! Hi I'm glad that you are doing that
9:04
so I don't have to remember that. I think
9:07
I'm just looking for another shirt raw or get
9:09
the use my new compound or or create compound
9:11
and expand stroke still have an African have I
9:13
don't forget The Mob is renowned and excerpt. Oh
9:16
my word site are we got some see
9:18
back about a real time I was in
9:20
cars. I figure I think this was the
9:22
toward the end of the mean So last
9:24
week or we were discussing you know what's
9:26
real time O S, what's what's not in
9:29
weird his car play say it were with
9:31
this new car play version to what they're
9:33
calling it a where would that sits and
9:35
up front of So Sam Wilson made from
9:37
wheel bearings wrote in to say that a
9:39
car to textures that Android Automotive runs in
9:41
a container and the real time O S
9:43
usually something like you Annex Wind River or
9:45
Greenhill Software. runs and another container with
9:47
an underlying line linux destroy and all of
9:49
it is running on a qualcomm snapdragon cockpit
9:52
eighty one sixty five the rules on the
9:54
west controls the instrument cluster displayed in many
9:56
cases into an automotive a project data two
9:58
parts of the class such as
10:00
showing Google Maps on the Volvo. The hypervisor
10:03
makes sure that the real-time OS gets priority,
10:05
which is required to meet Federal Motor Vehicle
10:07
Safety Standards requirements for displaying driving info like
10:09
speed and warning quote-unquote lamps, which
10:11
themselves are now usually virtual. We also got some
10:14
anecdote from a handful of people who said,
10:16
hey, you know, when my infotainment crashes, which
10:19
seems to be a common thing on cars other than Teslas, turns
10:21
out that oftentimes their,
10:24
you know, gauge cluster will show
10:26
a speedometer, or sometimes even will
10:28
continue to do, if I remember
10:30
this anecdote right, will continue to do
10:32
like quote-unquote autopilators, you know, assisted
10:34
steering or what have you, even when the infotainment
10:37
has crashed, which on the surface, I mean, that
10:39
makes sense, right? They should be totally different systems,
10:42
but yet they feel so intertwined when they're all,
10:44
you know, sucked into that same main display. So
10:46
there you go. Yeah, the people
10:49
saying that one-on-one thing crashes, the
10:51
other thing stays up, that doesn't mean either
10:53
one of them is real-time, that just means
10:55
they're two separate systems. Yeah, yeah. And it's
10:57
interesting that the real-time OS is like controlling
10:59
the cluster, but allowing stuff from non-real-time OSs
11:01
to display itself into it, the example I
11:03
gave her is maps, but like, I do
11:05
wonder how much of the stuff
11:07
displayed in the instrument cluster is
11:09
coming from a non-real-time OS, and
11:12
when that OS crashes, like some people said, like,
11:14
oh, well, the instrument cluster then displays some stuff
11:16
on its own, right? I'm
11:18
also kind of interested in, like, I didn't quite
11:20
understand this arrangement of real-time OS and Hypervisor that
11:23
is like, I kind of get
11:25
it, like it's running two containers, one is running Android automotive,
11:27
which is not real-time, and the other is running, like, say,
11:29
QNX, which is real-time, and the Hypervisor
11:31
makes sure that the real-time one gets, you
11:33
know, a reserve slice of those resources, so
11:35
the real-time OS is still real-time, and the
11:38
other thing isn't, but boy, it's getting
11:40
complicated in there, isn't it? And that also, like,
11:42
that throws the Apple's iPhone thing, another thing into
11:44
the mix is, I'm
11:46
not sure what the status of any
11:49
kind of real-time subsystem is in iOS.
11:51
Apple's not particularly forthcoming with technical details
11:53
like that, but it
11:55
seems to me that what would be happening there
11:57
is that the iPhone would be projecting. whatever
12:00
it's drawing onto the
12:02
instrument cluster, which may be run by a real-time OS.
12:04
But if Apple is covering the whole thing
12:06
with, like if every pixel of the instrument cluster is
12:08
produced by the phone, then is
12:11
the real-time OS simply acting as a video
12:13
ferrying device until and unless the phone crashes
12:16
or disconnects, at which point it takes over
12:18
and shows a cruddy speedometer? I don't know,
12:20
it's still kind of mysterious. And finally, I did
12:23
try to look up in the federal, the United States
12:25
Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards to see if I could
12:27
read the text of these standards to see like what
12:29
does it say about, you know, the
12:32
speedometer and warning lamps and everything
12:34
that would either necessitate a
12:36
real-time operating system or be well
12:39
suited to real-time operating systems. I confess I drowned
12:42
in the legalese. There's
12:44
a lot of words in there and weird language and
12:47
there is all sorts of stuff about lamps and stuff
12:49
like that. But I didn't, I couldn't find anything that
12:51
was like, oh, I can see
12:53
to comply with this standard of real-time OS is
12:55
either necessary or would be the easiest way to
12:57
do it. But I'm sure I gave up before
13:00
I found whatever regulation
13:02
is the appropriate
13:04
one. I did find a lot of regulations related to
13:06
it, but maybe not all of them. So yeah,
13:08
I'm glad I'm not making a car and probably so is
13:11
Apple. Good
13:14
news, this is our Dacia Sandero segment and that's
13:16
the reference for some of you. The
13:18
error network changed. The fix is in
13:21
the Chrome 124 beta. John,
13:23
are we pulling our party poppers? Are
13:25
we excited? What's going on here? Well,
13:28
you see the scare quotes around the word fix. The
13:30
document here. So if
13:32
you get Chrome beta, which I
13:34
did, it's the Chrome version
13:36
124 beta, that includes this
13:40
change. And what I did
13:42
was I pulled up Gmail, which is constantly sending requests
13:45
in the background. So it's a good test case. I
13:47
pulled up the dev tools and I filtered the output
13:49
to see only errors and I waited to see if
13:51
I saw any error network changed. I also like repaired
13:53
my iPhone with Xcode and did all the things to
13:56
try to induce the error. And
13:58
I ran it for a day and a half with that. a
14:00
dev tool window open the entire time, and
14:03
I never saw our network change. I'm like, I
14:05
think they did it. But keep in mind, when
14:07
we talked about the fix, we looked at the
14:09
diff and how they're doing it. They're looking for
14:12
a specific interface that's like, okay, if an interface
14:14
appears and it's one of these, and it's an
14:16
IPv6, and it's a local thing, and it's this,
14:18
and it's that, and it's that, then don't freak
14:21
out. Otherwise, freak out. It
14:24
didn't happen to me in 24 hours of
14:26
trying. But since this fix
14:28
went out in the Chrome Beta,
14:30
somebody in the bug
14:33
tracker comments said, hey, I'm using the Beta, and it
14:35
did happen to me. And then
14:37
the person asks, can you tell me a bunch of information on
14:39
your system or whatever? And I think it's because their supposed fix
14:41
is just sort of putting an include list
14:43
of like, look, if this
14:46
very specific thing happens, ignore it. Otherwise,
14:48
do what you normally do. And
14:50
I think that's the wrong way to fix this problem. Like,
14:52
because you're just gonna be chasing these rather. It's like, oh,
14:54
this person had their home kit thing come
14:57
online, and this person had something
15:00
like who knows what will happen on these people's
15:02
systems based on network stuff that's happening. You'll be
15:04
chasing these forever. It's better to, I
15:06
would think, it's better to figure out, look, what
15:09
kind of changes to the network does Chrome
15:11
actually care about? And only flip out when
15:13
you see one of those, and
15:15
ignore everything else. So I hope this is an
15:17
evolving system. Anyway, I'm continuing to run the Beta
15:20
because, hey, I didn't see it in 24 hours.
15:22
And I did an A-B test. I had the
15:24
Beta and the non-Beta running at the same time,
15:26
both open to Gmail, and boy, it's still there
15:29
in the non-Beta. And it just fills with our
15:31
network change. Like, after a few hours of running,
15:33
the screen was just filled with our network change
15:35
errors, from top to bottom, whereas the other
15:37
window didn't have in 24 hours. So I
15:39
think they're making good progress. I'm not sure if this
15:41
fix is the right fix, but if this is happening
15:43
to you, try the Chrome 124 Beta.
15:47
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17:46
Khan writes regarding the conversation about multiple monitors, has
17:48
Casey tried turning the two side monitors to portrait
17:51
orientation. I find this incredibly useful to have Safari
17:53
Windows open as reference and not need to scroll
17:55
them. Especially useful for dev documentation. Having them in
17:57
portrait orientation also reduces the impact of the internet.
18:00
impact of head turning significantly. I
18:02
use BetterTouchTool keyboard shortcuts to move a window
18:04
to a specific monitor, which makes window management
18:07
much simpler. So this is one
18:09
of those things that on paper,
18:11
100% could not agree more. I absolutely agree
18:15
that it makes sense for one, if
18:17
not all three of my monitors should
18:19
be portrait. I would make a strong
18:21
argument that the Xcode designated monitor, which
18:23
is the one directly in front of
18:25
me, that should probably be portrait, except
18:27
then my main monitor is portrait and
18:29
that feels super icky and weird. And
18:32
I have briefly tried to do this in the
18:34
past, and I just can't.
18:36
It just feels so
18:39
wrong. And I wonder if maybe I forced myself
18:41
to stick with it for more than half an
18:43
hour, if maybe it would get good
18:45
to me and maybe I would enjoy it. So
18:47
maybe I should give it another shot at some
18:49
point, but it's one of those things where it
18:52
almost gives me the heebie-jeebies. It just looks so
18:54
incredibly incorrect, even though again,
18:56
for all the reasons that
18:58
we're all cited, makes perfect sense. So
19:00
I don't know. We'll see. Maybe if
19:03
I'm having a quieter day,
19:05
maybe I'll mess with myself and turn one of
19:07
my monitors vertical and see what happens. I don't
19:09
know. I feel like our field of vision, like
19:11
our two eyes have a place where they overlap,
19:13
but then there's sort of a place that's exclusive
19:15
to the left eye, exclusive to the right eye,
19:18
because our eyes are side by side on our
19:20
head, not top and bottom. So I
19:22
feel like our field of vision better matches the landscape display.
19:24
And I also feel like it's maybe slightly more comfortable to
19:26
move your eyes side to side than up and down. And
19:30
like even for things like Xcode, there's only so much
19:32
code you can take in at a glance. I
19:35
guess it's good that you don't have to scroll. And I
19:37
guess it's good that the console on the bottom can take
19:39
up room and stuff like that. But I still feel like
19:41
I'd rather arrange things side by side than top to bottom,
19:43
unless there's a case where I really do need to see
19:46
like, if I need to see two vertically stacked
19:48
pages and something that's going to be printed like in
19:50
print layout or something like that. But again, that's kind
19:52
of the origin of like back in the old days,
19:54
the Mac had like a portrait monitor that
19:57
You could put one eight and a half by 11 page
19:59
on at like with. The Regret Lucian ah and
20:01
then data to pay to monitor would give
20:03
it to pages side by side by don't
20:05
think anyone ever wanna a a matter of
20:07
the give it to pages top and bottom.
20:10
Although I have seen it was in love
20:12
with a growth and so on. Like: square
20:15
Monitor literal nowhere aspect ratio monitor. That
20:17
super weird is as think well he others
20:19
decide to don't think I'll be able to
20:21
find want to put the but I'm willing
20:23
to put in the centers for somebody in
20:25
the last year come out with like I'm
20:27
saying I believe was a square aspect ratio
20:29
but it was designed to be effectively to
20:31
landscape monitors. The. And I seem to the
20:33
didn't have a hinge in the middle or something like
20:35
that. I forget exactly with situational. Another one thing I
20:37
will actually kind of small. they are weird small square
20:39
mile and their mind and body was it's a It's
20:42
weird that with Santa at I don't object to the
20:44
park your honors but I think it does that. Ninety
20:46
ticketing Justin are certain point the become like a really
20:48
so I did. you know I think. Both
20:50
agree that was my first gonna be ours
20:52
but the first place they are can go
20:55
into portrait mode and I'd turned in that
20:57
direction when I first got it and it's
20:59
hilarious. Assessments as smart as a hit your
21:01
ceiling specific it feels like any to get
21:03
a stepladder to reach the Appleman. Goodness
21:07
gracious, I'd Simone Rizzo rights regarding your idea
21:09
for an Apple Id verification via a quarter
21:12
for real Id, passport, etc. My guess is
21:14
that Apple may not want to have this
21:16
option for privacy reasons as the what a
21:18
full back door of moving. Ownership of
21:20
an Apple Id is technically possible. It
21:23
might be used by governments by large
21:25
additional order to transfer ownership and obtain
21:27
private info to the point. Yeah
21:29
so this is over type of us timers
21:31
and like bought a and ultimate safeguard of
21:33
someone steals your Apple Id or whatever if
21:35
you had previously verified with your I government
21:38
ideas response to you Can I get back
21:40
the technically minor thing when I am sour
21:42
apple give it back to you. Apple doesn't
21:44
have any power over your Apple Id. They
21:46
don't have a secret backdoor that they used
21:48
and seems like making the system would have
21:50
to give apple seeker backdoor. Well.
21:53
Yes and no. There's a way you can do this to
21:55
this. more secure in less secure
21:57
unless you're away as stay apple has domesticated
21:59
everyone's apple who does this. That's not great.
22:01
We don't want that. Because then Apple could get a subpoena and
22:04
get access to your stuff without you even knowing it, right? The
22:06
government could force them to do it and Apple would have the
22:08
power to do it. And Apple could say,
22:10
okay, well, if that user, you know,
22:12
signed up for this system of verification and showed us their
22:14
past part, then we do have a key to their
22:16
stuff. But if they didn't, then we don't, right?
22:19
But the slightly more secure way to do this,
22:21
and I say slightly, is
22:23
to instead, when you do the ID
22:25
verification, like you go to the thing and you show them
22:27
all your IDs and you prove that it's your whatever, what
22:30
happens is that they would put essentially
22:33
an unlock key and like the secure enclave
22:36
on your devices, like iCloud synced, you know,
22:38
end-to-end encrypted iCloud synced, so that all of
22:40
your devices in the secure enclave, there
22:42
was a key that Apple could get, but
22:44
only if it had access to your device,
22:47
right? So if the government came to Apple
22:49
and say, we need to unlock this person's
22:51
thing, here's a subpoena, and they'd be like,
22:53
Apple can truthfully say, we can't do that.
22:55
The only place our Apple key exists is
22:57
on their device, and we can't reach out
22:59
and get it off of the device, right?
23:01
It's locked inside their device or whatever. Maybe we'd
23:04
have to be locked in the device with a backup code or
23:06
whatever. Anyway, I say it's slightly better,
23:08
because at least Apple couldn't do things behind your
23:10
back, but only slightly because the government can just
23:12
come to your house and take your phone. For
23:16
us to open a face ID and duals. I
23:18
read a story recently where the FBI raided
23:20
some person's house, and the person
23:22
answered the door with their phone in
23:24
their hand, and their phone was unlocked at
23:26
the time they answered the door, and the FBI yanked it out
23:28
of their hand. So now they have the person's unlocked
23:31
phone. So many loopholes were
23:33
like, yoink. No, we
23:35
didn't force you to unlock it, but we got
23:37
it, and now it's unlocked. So
23:40
having the keys only on your individual devices
23:42
in the secure enclave in a place that Apple can't
23:44
get at it remotely means that Apple doesn't have a
23:46
master key back at headquarters, but it doesn't actually protect
23:48
you that much more. But yeah,
23:50
this is the tradeoff between convenience and security, and I
23:52
think it's a tradeoff that I personally would make. And
23:54
as long as it's opt-in, and only the people who care about
23:57
this would have to do it, I would give
23:59
Apple the ability to do it. to unlock
24:01
my Apple ID for me. I would give them the
24:03
key, they can keep it in their headquarters and that's
24:05
just to save my butt in the future if I
24:08
prove that I'm me, right? Because I trust Apple to
24:10
do that. And I would
24:13
prefer that to totally losing access to everything
24:15
associated with my Apple ID in an unrecoverable
24:17
way. But lots of other people wouldn't prefer
24:19
that. So there would be, that choice is up
24:21
to them. All right, and with
24:23
regard to Apple IDs, Eric writes, Apple IDs are
24:26
not required to be email addresses. I still use
24:28
an Apple ID like quote unquote J Smith and
24:30
I hope I don't have to change it to
24:32
an email address if the rumor about Apple accounts
24:34
turns out to be true. I
24:36
thought this was still legacy
24:39
accounts. I thought that they
24:41
were still allowed to do this. It's just
24:43
that Apple, it really, really encourages you not
24:45
to but yeah, we'll see what happens in
24:48
the future. Yeah, the reason we all forgot
24:50
about this is because developers were literally forced
24:53
to not do this. So everybody that we know had to change all
24:56
our old non-email address Apple IDs, if we wanted
24:58
to continue to be Apple developers, you could not
25:01
log into any of Apple developer stuff which you
25:03
needed to do to do stuff like release apps
25:05
on the App Store, right? So I avoided
25:07
it for a real long time but there was just no
25:10
way, eventually, this was years ago, there was no way around
25:12
it. But I'd forgotten about, hey, if you're
25:14
not an Apple developer and I guess if you'd never
25:17
touch anything that makes
25:19
you change it, that you just continue to just use
25:21
your phone or whatever, you could have an Apple ID
25:23
like J Smith and still exist. Wow,
25:26
that blows my mind but I guess they're still out there. And
25:29
then finally for followup, Ben writes, I
25:32
was podcast transcription, Apple's first real attempt
25:34
at heavy cloud computing, iMessage,
25:36
Apple Music Mail, et cetera, are all massive
25:39
but not compute intensive. All the other cool
25:41
stuff like photos, metadata, spotlight and news aggregation
25:43
seem to happen on device. If
25:45
I'm not missing anything, this seems to be a
25:47
good low stakes test for cooler AI stuff to
25:49
come. That's a really good point, I didn't think
25:51
about that. Yeah, like the more we've learned about
25:53
the podcast transcriptions they're doing, this
25:56
is not just them running a whisper model
25:58
and calling it a day. Because even
26:00
that is, that would be substantial for the
26:02
amount of data that they
26:05
are processing. Believe me, I know from experience. Of
26:07
course, immediately upon launching this, I
26:09
thought, oh boy, I have to do
26:12
this now. I have to match this feature in Overcast. And
26:14
so I've looked into what would it take to match
26:16
this feature in Overcast? I already have the
26:19
knowledge of which podcasts are subscribed to.
26:22
I know when new episodes come out for
26:24
each one. So I could theoretically do something
26:26
like this. But they're
26:28
not just running Whisper. From
26:31
what I gather, they seem to have bought a company
26:33
that was working on podcast transcription a few
26:36
years ago. This is like a few years long
26:38
effort, it seems. And they're
26:41
doing a lot of very
26:43
specialized processing. It isn't
26:45
just a basic transcription model that's like off
26:47
the shelf. They've customized it like crazy. And
26:49
they seem to be running a whole lot
26:51
of this stuff all on their server.
26:53
So first of all, good on them.
26:55
That's a great feature for accessibility and
26:58
navigation and everything else. And
27:00
for me to congratulate Apple Podcasts on a
27:02
new innovative feature does not happen that often,
27:04
because they are a direct competitor. And the
27:06
whole reason I made Overcast is because I
27:08
didn't like Apple Podcasts very much. So
27:11
they did a really good job on this. There's
27:14
no ifs, ands, or what's about it. I cannot
27:16
fault them for anything they've done here. It's really
27:18
impressive. And for the time being, I
27:20
can't match it. And I don't know when I'll
27:22
be able to if ever. But this is going
27:24
to be just Apple Podcasts is
27:26
going to win with this feature compared to Overcast
27:29
for the foreseeable future. And so to answer the
27:31
question, yeah, this actually is a surprisingly
27:33
big deal for Apple to
27:35
be doing this much server-side
27:37
advanced AI type processing. I
27:41
don't know if there's really
27:43
any other efforts they've undertaken
27:45
that at least have such visible results.
27:48
So yeah, this is new. And
27:50
I think because this is
27:53
very specialized to podcasts, keep in mind
27:55
the scale we're dealing with here. We
27:58
are not dealing with content. being created
28:00
by every iPhone. So if
28:03
you think about, oh, would they ever run
28:05
photo recognition server side? No. Because
28:07
think about the data volume of that, even if you
28:09
can get around the whole privacy and
28:11
encryption angles, which you can't. But even if you
28:14
could, the data volume of every
28:16
photo ever taken on every iPhone
28:18
in the world is way bigger
28:21
than podcast episodes that get released.
28:23
So this is a big
28:26
step, but I wouldn't necessarily extrapolate it
28:28
to much else that Apple could be
28:30
doing server side in the near future
28:32
for their other products. Because most
28:34
of their other products, the area
28:37
of use of this kind of computation
28:39
would be so massive that we'd be
28:41
talking about a whole different ballgame. We
28:43
talked about this when we were talking
28:45
about Apple potential licensing Google
28:47
Gemini or Chat GPT for an open AI. And it's
28:49
like there is sort of a difference
28:51
in difficulty. So
28:56
Apple has many things that are iPhone scale,
28:58
iMessage is the example I gave last time.
29:00
iMessage is iPhone scale. A lot of iPhone
29:02
users use iMessage, surely billions, right? And
29:05
there's a lot of traffic on that. But
29:07
computationally, varying the messages around,
29:09
even though they're like end-to-end encrypted, most of
29:11
that is done on the end devices anyway
29:14
and dealing with the key management, it's not
29:16
that big a deal. It's shuffling bits around
29:18
some small, fast computation on optimized hardware. That's
29:21
it. Something like transcription
29:23
is not like that, which is part of the
29:25
reason this is untenable for Marco at this point.
29:27
It's not like, oh, I'll just run a one
29:29
or two second little job every time an episode
29:31
comes out. It's going to take you longer than
29:33
that. It's going to take a lot of CPU
29:35
time to do for a unit of podcast
29:37
listening time. And
29:40
the AI stuff, we were talking last
29:42
time about how much, how
29:44
does inference, which is like when you ask
29:46
an AI model a question, how expensive is
29:48
that compared to training? And training is obviously
29:51
more expensive, but how much more expensive is
29:53
it? But setting all that aside, comparing the
29:55
cheapest thing in this sort of large language
29:57
model world, which is inference, comparing that. to
30:00
shuttling an iMessage from one user to
30:02
another, it's the deal doing the
30:04
L.M. thing has got to be so much more
30:07
expensive in terms of how many CPU cycles do
30:09
you need. So the question, you know, bringing this
30:11
up with the transcription is like, has
30:14
Apple ever attempted anything at iPhone
30:16
scale that is computationally difficult, that
30:18
is not just moving bits around,
30:20
sending small packets of data from
30:22
place to place? Even things like,
30:24
you know, iPhoto, you know, the
30:26
iClos Photo Library and stuff, you take a picture,
30:28
a bunch of computation happen on your phone, but then
30:31
when the picture is done, it's just a bucket of
30:33
bits that they shove up into like S3 or
30:35
whatever they're using on the back end, right? Computationally not
30:37
expensive, but all this large language
30:39
model stuff, the stuff that can't run on the
30:41
phone, that uses really large, large language models that
30:44
has to run on a server or
30:46
podcast transcription, I'm not sure Apple
30:48
is equipped or prepared or has
30:51
invested enough to do that type
30:53
of computation at iPhone scale. So podcast scale is less
30:56
than iPhone scale, as Marco just pointed out. So this
30:58
is kind of a good start for them. And
31:01
maybe I'm forgetting something, maybe there is something that Apple
31:03
has been doing that is both computationally expensive and also
31:05
at iPhone scale, but nothing is occurring to me right
31:07
now. So this is a good point by Ben. All
31:10
right, moving on. John,
31:13
do you really need me for this one? Because this is
31:15
basically Mac Pro Corner, isn't it? Well, it's Mac Studio Corner.
31:19
All right, so there's been some theorizing
31:21
going around that there is no
31:24
ultra fusion interconnect on the M3
31:26
Macs, or at least none that
31:28
we can tell. So, John, can you remind
31:30
us what this ultra fusion interconnect is in the first
31:32
place and why it's relevant? Yeah, so when
31:34
we were looking at the M3 and the M3
31:36
Macs came out and we were looking at die
31:39
shots, pictures of the silicon die of the M3
31:42
Macs, and we look, they all, those are the
31:44
rainbowy looking pictures with lots of little tiny features,
31:46
looks like a city from a uniform above, right?
31:48
We were looking at the layout of the chip,
31:51
and what I said at the time was, well, if
31:53
you look at the M3 Macs and you look at
31:56
the M2 Macs and the M1 Macs, the layouts are
31:58
pretty similar in terms of where are the big rectangular
32:00
blobs are, where the
32:02
major structures are. The structures themselves are different,
32:04
there's different cores, different amounts of stuff, different
32:06
GPU cores. The things are different, but they're
32:09
laid out very similar. And
32:11
both the M1 and the M2 max were
32:14
constructed so that you could take two of them,
32:17
stick them end to end, and make it
32:19
either an M1 or an M2 Ultra. So
32:21
when the M3 max came out, we said,
32:23
well, this M3 max looks just like the
32:25
M1 and M2 max. So probably they're going
32:27
to take two of these M3 maxes, stick
32:29
them end to end, and
32:31
you'll get the M3 Ultra. And the
32:33
thing, when you stick them end to
32:35
end, the thing that connects them is
32:37
that Apple's branded Ultra Fusion interconnect, it's
32:39
a silicon interposer that lets them weave
32:42
together these two chips into a
32:44
single Ultra chip. So
32:47
my expectation for the M3 was, it'll
32:49
be the same thing as the M1 and M2. And
32:51
what that also meant is, probably
32:54
there won't be any kind of M3
32:56
extreme that's like four of them connected or whatever. It just
32:58
looks like, just like the M1 and M2, you'll be able
33:00
to stick two of these end to end. So
33:03
somebody posted on Twitter, in Chinese,
33:05
which is a barrier for me
33:08
to understand, a
33:10
picture of the M3
33:12
max die. And if you
33:14
compare to the M1 and M2 max, and if you
33:16
compare them and the M1 and M2 max pictures at
33:18
the bottom of the die, you see this like
33:20
long strip that is
33:22
that Ultra Fusion silicon interposer thing. It looks kind of
33:24
like a pin out, very tiny pin out, some like
33:27
a little thing that you slide into a slot, but
33:29
it's just, anyways, it's a bunch of little, a strip
33:31
of little connectors or a strip of little contacts. Those
33:33
are all the wrong words because this is microscopic stuff.
33:35
But anyway, the strip on the bottom, where you connect
33:37
them end to end, except the
33:39
M3 die shot does not have that
33:42
strip at the bottom. Did someone
33:44
just crop it out of the M3
33:46
max picture? I don't know.
33:48
You can't tell. And the
33:50
Chinese texts translated by competing translation things,
33:52
Google Translate and like the Twitter Translate
33:54
thing were like, there
33:57
is a wiring layer. And then in parentheses,
33:59
although wiring layer peeling is not
34:01
listed on X. And the
34:03
other translation is with wiring layer, all the
34:05
wiring layer peeling is not included in X.
34:09
I don't know what that means, but some
34:11
people like MacRumors and a bunch of other
34:13
like MaxTek or whatever took this ball and
34:15
ran with it and said, M3max has no
34:17
silicon interposer, M3max doesn't have ultra fusion. And
34:20
they spun that out to mean that the
34:22
two M3maxes will not be stuck together to
34:24
make the M3 ultra. And in fact, what
34:26
will happen instead is there will be a
34:28
new chip called the M3 ultra that is
34:31
not the max at all, but a new
34:33
chip entirely. And what they were saying
34:35
about this new chip based on some other vague rumors
34:38
was that the M3 ultra
34:40
will just be one big standalone chip, not
34:42
two of anything stuck together. And that one
34:44
big standalone chip will not have any efficiency
34:46
cores because it doesn't need them at the
34:49
desktop only chip, no efficiency cores, only power
34:51
cores, and a bunch of them. So if
34:53
you can imagine the M3 ultra being like
34:55
a bigger chip than the M3max with all
34:58
the efficiency cores removed and that new space
35:00
taken up by just having the power cores.
35:02
And then if you take two of
35:05
those ultras and stick them together, you would
35:07
get the M3 extreme, which would
35:09
then go in the MacPro. I
35:11
want to believe this rumor, but
35:14
basing it on an image posted in
35:17
a language I can't understand on Twitter where
35:19
someone might have just cropped out the interposer
35:22
is not reassuring to me. I just wanted to
35:24
talk about it now to say, Hey, help
35:27
Springs Eternal. And despite the rumor
35:29
we had a while ago that nothing good
35:31
will ever happen to the MacPro until after
35:33
the M7, I keep reminding
35:35
myself, who knows?
35:37
Maybe there's a possible a WWDC, presumably
35:40
the new MacStudio and maybe new MacPro will be
35:42
announced. I would love to see an M3 ultra
35:44
chip that is not two of anything stuck together
35:46
that had no efficiency cores that only power cores.
35:48
And I would love two of them to be
35:51
stuck together to make an ultra in the MacPro.
35:53
That would be super cool. So fingers
35:55
crossed for the WWDC that I'm currently not
35:57
going to be able to attend in person.
36:00
This is the kind of thing I would love for this to be
36:02
true, but I just, I
36:04
can't imagine that they're doing enough sales
36:07
volume of these very, very large chips
36:09
to make it worth custom engineering to
36:11
make a custom chip. I
36:13
hope that's wrong. I would love to be proven
36:15
wrong on that. But so far,
36:17
the amount of effort they have shown
36:19
so far for these very high-end
36:22
chips is not large,
36:25
let's say. And so I
36:28
just have doubts. But that being said, if you
36:30
look at the M3 series, the
36:32
M3 – this is the first time
36:34
that the M3 Pro and Max are
36:37
actually fairly different chips. That
36:40
for the M1 and M2 Pro and Max, the
36:43
Pro was basically a chopped-off version of
36:45
the Max that chopped off some of
36:47
his GPU cores and maybe had some
36:49
disabled CPU cores for bidding reasons. But
36:52
the M3 Pro is
36:55
a totally different and custom design compared
36:57
to the M3 Max and the regular
36:59
M3. It's closer to the regular
37:01
M3, but it's still a very custom design. It
37:03
is not just one of those with something chopped
37:06
off or disabled. So
37:08
they are, with the M3
37:10
line, expanding it to more
37:12
unique designs. So maybe
37:14
this has some merit and some
37:16
promise, but I
37:18
bet they sell a lot more pros than
37:20
extremes or ultras or whatever. So I don't
37:23
want to get my hopes up too much
37:25
in this because it seems unlikely to be
37:27
leading to anything that we actually want. Some
37:30
of the other vague things that are
37:32
making people hope about this is that in addition to
37:34
the M3 Max being separate from the Pro, the
37:37
M3 Max is also substantially beefier than the
37:39
M2 Max was. You know what I mean?
37:41
In terms of scale, you have a small,
37:43
medium, large, whatever. The M3 Max has lots
37:45
of stuff in it, and
37:48
it's more powerful comparatively. For
37:52
example, the M3 Max is contending with the M2
37:54
Ultra in many benchmarks. Just one Max compared to
37:56
the M3 Ultra, which is not the thing you
37:58
saw with the M3 Max. the M1
38:00
versus the M2, the M2 versus the M3, a
38:03
single Mac competing with the M1
38:06
Ultra or M2 Ultra. So, not in
38:08
GPU benchmarks, I guess, but the
38:11
M3 Mac does look beefier. And I
38:13
believe the whole like no efficiency course
38:15
rumor was based on some kind of
38:17
source code leak thing somewhere, maybe again,
38:19
can't lend too much credence to these
38:21
things, but that
38:23
makes sense to me, both for
38:25
the Mac Studio and for the Mac Pro.
38:28
Those computers are never going to run on
38:30
battery, you hope, if you're running after your
38:32
UPS. So, efficiency cores may
38:35
not, especially a huge number
38:37
of efficiency cores, it's just wasted, it's wasted silicon,
38:39
right? Not that the efficiency cores are bad or
38:41
anything, but if you wanna make a powerful machine
38:43
like the Mac Pro, that case is huge, efficiency
38:46
cores are probably not a
38:50
worthwhile use, especially if you have like six
38:52
or 12 of them are worthwhile use of
38:54
your silicon space, right? That said, I kind
38:56
of feel like no efficiency cores is too
38:58
few, 12 may be too many,
39:00
but zero may be too few, but I
39:03
kept thinking like, okay, but what would be the point
39:05
of them? I guess for heat maybe, or I don't
39:07
even know, like you don't really care
39:09
about the power, like you
39:12
don't care about the electricity your Mac Pro takes, but one
39:16
efficiency core, you know, ticking away doing
39:18
some trivial job versus one power core
39:20
ticking away, in the grand scheme
39:22
of the power envelope of a Mac Pro, you're
39:24
not gonna notice that, right? So I
39:26
don't know, I'm intrigued by this rumor
39:28
and I'm anxiously anticipating new
39:31
hardware at W3C. So
39:33
with that in mind, if you permit a
39:35
slight tangent, what is your vibe check on
39:38
replacing your Mac Pro? I mean, last I
39:40
remember you saying anything about it, which as
39:42
we've already covered, my memory is garbage, but
39:44
last I remember is you were gonna keep
39:46
on keeping on until you don't get macOS
39:48
updates anymore and then you'll start thinking about
39:50
it, but what's your current thinking? Yeah,
39:52
I'm still probably gonna keep
39:55
holding out until I don't have OS
39:57
support anymore, you know, or I can smell.
39:59
I'm not having it. I'll know that I don't have
40:01
OS support before that OS is released, right? And then I'll
40:04
make a decision. I
40:06
suppose something could be released to WWDC that's
40:09
so compelling, that would just make me wanna
40:11
get it. And it might
40:13
even be just like, you know, an
40:15
M3 Ultra Mac Studio or something, right? Because
40:17
maybe I still wouldn't bother with the extreme
40:20
because there's still the whole question of like,
40:23
the gaming situation and what good is a giant GPU
40:25
like that. But, you know, never say never, but
40:27
right now I'm still gonna keep holding out this
40:30
Mac Pro for as long as I can. Fair
40:32
enough. All right, it seems like
40:35
everyone's getting a little bit of antitrust
40:37
pressure because apparently Microsoft has decided to
40:39
do what they've already done in the
40:41
EU and split teams off from Office.
40:44
So reading from the Verge, Microsoft possibly
40:46
hoping to deflect the blow of an
40:48
ongoing antitrust investigation in the EU is
40:50
spinning teams off from Office 365 to
40:53
sell as its own separate app globally. A
40:55
company spokesperson told Reuters it was making the
40:58
change to its business chat and
41:00
conferencing app quote, to ensure clarity for customers
41:02
quote, after already doing so in
41:04
the EU last year. So
41:06
the background for this, for people who weren't
41:09
working in jobby jobs in the past five to 10 years
41:12
is that Slack came out and
41:15
Slack was one of those sort of backdoor work
41:17
items, kind of like the iPhone was and Mac
41:20
in some cases where employees start
41:22
using it without the blessing
41:24
or knowledge of management just
41:26
to help them do their work. Cause Slack was free, people
41:28
could download it on their computers if they
41:30
were lucky enough to be able to install software on
41:32
their work computers, which many people are, especially developers. And
41:36
so they just started using Slack. And then
41:38
eventually enough people used it, that look our employees
41:40
love Slack and it's helping them get their work
41:42
done and they're more productive. We should get a
41:44
license for Slack and they would go to Slack
41:47
and they would buy a license and however many
41:49
seats they have to pay for, for their company.
41:52
And yay, the company is now using Slack and
41:55
employees are enjoying it. And
41:57
they're using a little a
41:59
emoticon underneath there, not emoticon.
42:01
emoji reaction things and making
42:03
custom animated rainbow dancing
42:05
parrots they can put under messages and they're
42:07
making all sorts of channels about the frisbee
42:09
club at work and everyone's loving
42:11
it. Slack is great, having lots of fun. I
42:13
live this, it was a real thing. It was
42:17
like IRC, but for people who couldn't use IRC
42:19
and it was fun and everyone was using Slack.
42:22
Then what happened was Microsoft said we
42:25
don't like it when other people pay somebody
42:27
other than us for their
42:29
office software. Microsoft created
42:31
Teams which is a terrible Slack
42:34
clone that everybody hates as
42:36
well they should. It is a very
42:38
bad program. What they said is, hey
42:40
company that's currently paying for Slack you're
42:43
already paying us for exchange in
42:45
office because everybody is. Why
42:51
are you bother paying Slack? Because Slack is
42:53
kind of expensive. Why don't
42:55
you just use Teams? You get it for
42:57
free with the thing you're already paying for.
42:59
You're already paying for exchange, you're already paying
43:01
for office. Guess what? Now
43:03
you get Teams. No additional cost to you, it just
43:05
comes free as part of the thing you're already paying
43:07
for and that caused
43:10
pretty much every company that
43:12
has anybody who's in charge
43:14
of finances to stop paying for
43:16
Slack and force everyone to change the
43:18
Teams. Because they'd say how much
43:20
are we paying for Slack per year? How many
43:22
millions of dollars are we paying for Slack every
43:24
year? I can just cross that
43:27
line item off the budget and I just saved
43:29
this company 1.5 million dollars per year. You
43:32
know and all I have to do is tell everybody,
43:34
hey you were using Slack now you're using Teams and
43:37
this happened to me personally and when it was happening
43:39
to me I complained to it to my friends and
43:41
they all said yeah this is happening to me too.
43:44
So everybody said all the employees were
43:46
like but we don't want to
43:48
leave Slack. We love Slack. What about all our
43:50
chats? What about this? What about that? All sources
43:53
employee feedback sessions but in the end the
43:55
CFO would just point to 1.5 million dollars
43:57
per year versus zero. And
44:01
that was an unstoppable force that
44:03
met the very movable object of
44:05
employee dissatisfaction. And so
44:08
Slack was phased out, Teams was phased in,
44:10
and the wailing of the masses who were
44:12
forced to use Teams, which was and is
44:14
incredibly buggy and was and is a pale
44:16
shadow of Slack, happened across
44:18
the entire universe. And apparently,
44:21
and I didn't even know about this because I'm not paying
44:23
too much attention after I left my joby job, in the
44:25
EU, they said, that seems like
44:27
anti-competitive behavior, where you're using
44:29
market power in one realm, like
44:31
your office applications or Exchange Server,
44:33
whatever, to force, you
44:36
know, to gain leverage over another market, which
44:38
is the market for these communication apps. Which,
44:40
by the way, it totally is. Well,
44:43
so I talked about it on Mastodon a little
44:45
bit. And a couple of you will ask questions
44:47
that said, well, wait a second. How
44:50
is Slack or Teams separate
44:55
from, quote unquote, office?
44:57
Because office includes like
45:00
Excel, Word, Outlook, PowerPoint,
45:02
SharePoint, you know, Exchange
45:04
Server, Trigger Warning. Yeah, like, but
45:07
all like, and you're saying so,
45:10
quote unquote, office software is one market,
45:12
but things like Teams and Slack are
45:14
a different market. And
45:16
what I said to the person I responded to said, like,
45:19
Microsoft would love for you to believe
45:21
that all of these things are just
45:23
quote unquote, office applications, because office
45:25
applications is a flexible enough term to encompass anything
45:28
anybody makes that is remotely useful to someone who
45:30
works in an office. And the
45:33
fact is, historically, we have allowed this to
45:35
go on to the point where Microsoft Office
45:37
and the Office suite of applications, or the
45:39
365, whatever they call it now, encompasses
45:42
way more than it already should. But
45:45
that's not a reason to say, okay, but they're
45:47
allowed to do this to literally any other thing
45:49
that, you know, so Slack had a product that
45:51
people were using because they liked it, and they
45:53
charged people money for it. And Microsoft came in
45:55
and said, we will leverage our existing market power
45:57
to essentially push you out of the market with
46:00
free application, Internet Explorer style, because free
46:02
is better than paying. And
46:05
while I do see why that's bad and it happened
46:07
to me and it didn't feel good and it does
46:09
feel anti-competitive, if you look at it
46:11
from a logical perspective, what you say is, okay,
46:13
but also I see other things that happened in the past
46:15
that Microsoft did that were also bad and I agree with
46:17
that. How did we let them draw
46:20
a line around everything that is currently in Office 365
46:22
or whatever and say that is
46:24
one market? I think that is
46:26
the result of doing this same thing multiple times in
46:29
the past and getting away with it. That's not a
46:31
reason to let them get away with it again, but
46:33
it is kind of perverse. So the
46:35
reason I put the line item in here is like, okay, EU
46:39
did this thing and Microsoft is saying, we're
46:41
going to do this for the whole world. EU made us split
46:43
it out and charge money for it separately,
46:46
right? And now we're going to do it for the whole world.
46:48
And this, this of course made me
46:50
think of Apple in
46:52
a couple of different ways. Self-regulation,
46:55
we've talked about this about Apple many times.
46:57
Apple, the regulators are coming for it. People
46:59
are upset. Governments are upset. How about
47:01
you voluntarily do something to head them off of the pass
47:03
and Apple is like, nah. I'd
47:06
rather not. They're basically
47:08
like, make me, make me do it. Pass
47:11
the law, win the lawsuit. Come
47:14
and make me do it. I'm not going to preemptively do something
47:16
in the hopes that we'll keep you away. And
47:19
this looks like Microsoft saying, oh, the EU made us do
47:21
it. Maybe the US is going to make us do it.
47:24
Why don't we just preemptively say, look, we already did it in the EU. Why
47:26
don't we do it everywhere? It's kind of like if Apple said, you
47:28
know what? Side loading everywhere. EU is making
47:30
us do it. So we're just going to make it global. Apple
47:33
has not done that. And arguably Apple has also
47:35
not done that in the EU either, but we'll
47:37
see. It turns out. So
47:39
there's that one thing. But the second thing is I look at this and
47:41
I say, Microsoft doing
47:44
this now is like, okay, we
47:48
use this strategy to
47:50
push out Slack for
47:52
years and we got away with
47:55
it. Now that we've essentially won
47:57
and Slack has been pushed out. Yeah, sure.
48:00
We'll make it separate. It's
48:03
like if you let Microsoft do this
48:05
for, I don't know, five to ten
48:07
years and they push out the competitor
48:09
and hurt that company so badly that
48:11
they essentially, like all the companies that
48:14
were going to use Teams
48:16
simply because it's free, by now they have.
48:19
Like the only ones still holding onto Slack are the
48:21
few companies that can bear to see that line item
48:23
or maybe they don't pay for Microsoft Office or whatever.
48:26
It's like closing the barn door after the horse has
48:28
already left. When
48:31
I look at this, I'm like, do you see Apple as a
48:33
different way to be evil? If
48:36
you do the anti-competitive thing and
48:39
get away with it for long enough, then
48:42
you can quote unquote self-regulate
48:44
the first time you're forced to do this in
48:47
any jurisdiction, oh, the EU forces do it, now
48:49
we'll self-regulate and do it globally. Aren't we a
48:51
good company? There's so much
48:53
of a better, more shrewd strategy than Apple is
48:55
doing from my perspective because you get to have
48:58
your cake and eat it too. They
49:00
got to crush Slack, right? They got to
49:03
replace it in all these places and now
49:05
they also presumably will head off anti-trust about
49:07
the specific issue in any other country because
49:09
you know what? The EU made us do
49:11
it and we're voluntarily doing it every place
49:14
else. That is just genius,
49:16
evil genius, but genius. I
49:18
mean Microsoft's really good at that. Microsoft
49:20
has also seen what the
49:23
DOJ can do. They have been
49:25
directly affected by it and we
49:28
can quibble about whether the big DOJ Microsoft case
49:30
in the late 90s, like what that actually did
49:32
or accomplished, but the reality is Microsoft had to
49:34
deal with it for a long time and it
49:36
was a huge pain in their rear end. They
49:40
know what the DOJ can do. The
49:42
difference here is that I think Microsoft,
49:44
when they're doing things that are blatantly
49:47
anti-competitive, they know it. Whereas
49:49
Apple, I get the feeling still that
49:52
Apple's upper leadership and honestly many people in
49:55
the company, but certainly the upper leadership, they
49:57
are so convinced that they are... completely
50:00
entitled to do what they're doing, I
50:03
don't think they even see the possibility yet
50:06
that they could be wrong and that they could be forced
50:08
to do other things. Even now that
50:10
the EU has just forced them to do other things,
50:13
I still think Apple is
50:15
still going to fight it tooth and nail.
50:17
They're still going to never change their minds
50:19
about what they are entitled to do. And
50:23
I think it will take – similar to what
50:26
Microsoft has now, I think it will
50:28
take a new generation of Apple leadership
50:30
before we start to see them play
50:32
better ball with regulators. I
50:35
don't see that happening with the current leadership
50:38
and not only just
50:40
like Tim Cook in particular, the current
50:42
generation of leadership. Everyone
50:44
at the Apple SVP level who
50:46
was over say age 60, which
50:48
is I think most of them
50:50
or at least like 55, there's
50:52
like one generation of Apple power
50:54
that's really in right now. I
50:57
think they will all have to go
50:59
and be replaced before there's
51:01
even a chance of the
51:03
current entitlement culture being
51:06
a little bit more pragmatic with the environment
51:08
they're in now. I mean
51:10
that happened to Microsoft too. Yes. In the
51:12
Ballmer era, it was just a continuation of the Gates
51:14
era essentially and it took Sachin Nadella to come into
51:16
– among many other things. But he did many smart
51:18
things to turn the company around. But
51:21
that was the dividing line between old Microsoft and
51:23
new Microsoft because Ballmer was just a Gates extension.
51:27
And Nadella was like, I have a new idea about how
51:29
Microsoft can be. And I
51:31
feel like Nadella also has a new idea
51:33
of how to deal with regulation, with
51:36
this self-regulation after already getting most of the benefits of being
51:38
a monopoly. And by the way, I think –
51:40
don't quote me on this so you can read the article in the
51:42
notes to find out the details. But I believe part
51:44
of the thing of breaking it out separately
51:47
was like all the companies that are currently getting
51:49
it as part of their contract for office, their
51:51
price doesn't change. So it's
51:53
only like for new customers going forward, like not only
51:55
did we get all those wins and push Slack out,
51:57
we're going to consolidate them. But
52:00
not because if they went to all those customers and say,
52:02
oh, by the way, now teams cost an additional 1.5 million
52:04
per year, the employees would say, hey, wait a second, that
52:06
was zero dollars on the budget just went to 1.5 million.
52:10
Can we just give that to Slack instead? And there would be much rejoicing. But
52:12
that's not what they did. Yeah,
52:14
I don't know. I just as Marco said, you know,
52:16
we're both really I really wish that Apple had taken
52:19
the initiative to self-regulate because
52:21
I genuinely think if they
52:24
showed even an ounce
52:26
of I don't know if contrition is
52:28
really the word I'm looking for, but
52:30
if they showed an ounce of responsibility
52:32
and conceded
52:34
even the littlest bit that, hey, maybe
52:36
we should pull back a little on
52:38
our entitlement, which I know we've covered
52:40
it a million times, but I'll say
52:42
it again. I couldn't agree with Marco
52:44
more that they feel entitled. And
52:47
so if they had
52:49
shown even just the teeniest bit
52:51
of willingness to give on this,
52:53
I genuinely think that there would be considerably
52:56
less antitrust pressure globally.
52:59
But because there being such petulant children
53:01
about it, here we are. And so,
53:04
you know, you eff around and
53:06
now they're finding out. So this is
53:08
what happens. And again, I think it
53:10
will take a generation of their leadership to turn
53:12
over before we see the
53:15
satin Adela of Apple, like the kind
53:17
of like the newer generation, the more
53:19
pragmatic for the current
53:22
conditions kind of leader. You
53:24
look at Apple now and all those people
53:26
who were in leadership positions at Apple now in
53:29
that upper leadership, they were there when Apple
53:31
was the underdog. And so they still have
53:33
so much of that underdog mindset. It's
53:35
going to take the rising through the ranks and the
53:38
time for a new generation
53:40
of Apple leadership who came up while
53:43
Apple was already the big dominant,
53:46
honestly, bully slash monopolist, however you wanted
53:48
to find it. It's going to take
53:50
that generation of leadership in the company
53:52
to Inherit Power before we see
53:55
meaningful change in this area because the
53:57
current generation just will never, ever see
53:59
it. that way I mean you know
54:01
he made a comparison to Bomber and
54:03
look, I know Tim Cook did a
54:05
better job by most measures then Steve
54:07
Ballmer. But make no mistake, Tim Cook
54:09
is a Steve Bomber type doing a
54:11
Steve Bomber role. He says doing had
54:13
better, but it's exactly the same side.
54:15
It's physician and Tim Cook is exactly
54:17
the same kind of leader in a
54:19
lot of ways to get them a
54:21
better job of it than Bomber did.
54:23
I know any better values? I would
54:25
say like that Bomber did not have
54:27
a baby girl. Environmental plus Yes. but
54:29
but. Cook Saw has many of the
54:31
same strengths and weaknesses that is Evelyn
54:34
extension of because he came up with
54:36
jobs like and hopefully Apple won't have
54:38
the experience of Microsoft like transition. Big
54:40
assert Paredones transition was that Microsoft was
54:42
essentially a fading star. Like the dominance
54:44
of the place where I was dominant
54:46
like in you know, Office and Pcs
54:48
and stuff like that became less important
54:50
and all bombers attempts to bring Microsoft
54:53
into the future did not pan out.
54:55
There was a lot of big acquisitions,
54:57
ah, you know all the time Said
54:59
mobile failed. By Nokia wasn't great idea of
55:01
Skype purchase than the was like other people
55:03
were doing things a Microsoft was trying to
55:05
do things the old way, windows and office
55:07
but also new stuff and it just you
55:09
know windows everywhere in the furthermore him and
55:11
finances were not about the threats so that
55:13
Adele's said take over with was kind of
55:15
like. Are you should make
55:17
me the new Ceo because Microsoft despite like
55:20
you know the stock price and of and
55:22
you know that the numbers the bomb or
55:24
applied to to say I've been a great
55:26
cel look at these numbers and some cook
55:28
has even begun a prospective. Despite all that
55:30
the board could see that like look Microsoft
55:32
is not. Minnesota not ascendant, right?
55:34
Yes, they're making a lot of money, but they're making
55:36
a lot of money ago. if I got. A
55:40
trailing indicator like they they have a lot of
55:42
existing businesses that have incredible amount of inertia and
55:44
Bomber is good at continuing to milk them and
55:47
make tons of money and grow that business. But
55:49
what is the future like like in it and.
55:52
Microsoft. Did phase of the point where. they
55:55
wanted a a new leader who
55:57
could put the sign back on
55:59
microsoft And I would hope that Apple
56:02
doesn't have to get to that position where
56:04
either the place where Apple was dominant becomes
56:06
less important, which I don't think is any
56:08
fear of happening anytime soon, or that Apple
56:11
is not seen as having a future beyond
56:13
the stuff that it has done. I
56:16
don't think that has happened yet either. The generational thing
56:18
was like, oh, Tim Cook will retire and all those people
56:20
will retire. But I
56:22
think for the... I mean, that's the good thing
56:24
about Apple. Because if they don't screw things up,
56:26
and they certainly haven't, again, Tim Cook has done
56:28
amazing things with every metric you could possibly measure
56:30
at Apple. If
56:32
they don't screw things up, maybe you
56:34
just do need a generational turnover to say, we're going
56:36
to continue to do all the things that Apple used
56:39
to do, but we don't be jerks about certain stuff.
56:42
It's not a big change, but it is type of
56:44
like, you need a new sheriff in town, right? Or
56:46
you need a big change of heart from Tim Cook,
56:48
which doesn't seem to be forthcoming, right? So
56:50
I really hope it's not like Apple, the
56:52
fading star, never got into hollow headbands, like their Vision
56:54
Pro was a flop, but the hollow headband from some
56:57
company we've never heard of is taking the world by
56:59
storm. And yeah, Apple still has the phone market, but
57:01
phones are less important now that we have hollow headbands.
57:03
And you know what I mean? That's where Microsoft was
57:05
when Adele took over and said, it's not going
57:07
to be the Windows company anymore. We're going to
57:09
ship Linux. We're going to put our software in
57:11
every platform. That strategy,
57:14
Balmor would never have done that. Gates would never have
57:16
done that. And there's all sorts of things that Tim Cook
57:18
would never have done. But honestly, I don't think Apple needs
57:21
that kind of turnaround. They just need leadership that takes
57:23
a different view of their
57:26
place in the ecosystem that they've
57:28
created. It's a
57:30
course correction, not a revamp. Because
57:32
if Apple gets to the point where it
57:35
needs a revamp, that
57:37
means things have gone really badly. I mean, that's
57:39
where they... If they're 90 days from
57:41
bankruptcy, like they were in 97 or whatever, yeah,
57:43
new leadership has a lot of leeway to do
57:45
all sorts of great things. But I hope they
57:47
don't get to that point. Well, I
57:49
mean, so two clarifications on that. I mean, first of all,
57:52
I think we... The
57:54
story has yet to be finished, but We
57:56
haven't seen how Apple's handling AI stuff
57:59
yet. And so I
58:01
think that is one area where. He.
58:03
Could reveal problems if they really dropped the
58:05
ball on it. Now we'll see what happens
58:07
they again like. We have lots a strong
58:09
rumors of big stuff coming in just a
58:12
few short months so we'll see that. Yeah
58:14
we don't know how the story and yet
58:16
but that is one area where it is
58:18
possible that Apple could still dropped the ball
58:20
and have a lot of the tech industry
58:22
disrupt Apple's businesses by using that. So we'll
58:24
see what happens there are there is the
58:26
reason I for the reason I was thinking
58:28
that wouldn't be as bad with because the
58:30
thing that. Really hard Microsoft
58:32
was the rise of mobile. Yes,
58:34
and mobile is za saying right
58:37
now. So. Even if the
58:39
current large language models are a big thing
58:41
and out before really behind them. The.
58:43
Phone is still nothing and yes the phone is
58:45
less valuable the doesn't have a good L am
58:48
in. I mean like I can see how they
58:50
could. You know they can fall behind in this
58:52
area. but as long as they continue their I
58:54
phone dominance at the same level. Or
58:57
close to it. That not like.
58:59
That's why give a whole had banned fictional
59:01
example. There's not some new realm of the
59:03
tech sector, some new platform that is now
59:05
the shell. The. Phone will still be the
59:07
show even with a I. Com.
59:09
It isn't enough. It is possible yikes that
59:11
if they do such a bad job on
59:14
a I'd been doubled during the I phone
59:16
or whatever. But there's so much else to
59:18
recommend the I phone that I don't That
59:20
could hurt not much. but like medicine, just
59:22
me being in the large language, My pessimism,
59:24
they're they're very useful. Apple should use that
59:26
technology, but I don't think it's so revolutionary
59:28
that if Apple is a poor job of
59:30
it, it's going to hurt the I phone
59:32
to in the same the same way that
59:34
mobile hurt the Pc. i mean
59:36
we'll see i think you're probably right
59:39
my was a don't bet against smartphone
59:41
i think you're probably right but the
59:43
this generation of young modern a i
59:45
techniques and the types of models that
59:47
are that aren't being created and deployed
59:49
now in in really compelling way than
59:51
a lot cases i think this is
59:53
the most credible attack yet on the
59:55
smartphone be as in many cases he
59:58
added that we talked about it And
1:00:00
over time, a couple weeks ago, the Rabbit
1:00:02
R1 and its idea of the large action
1:00:04
model. And yeah, there's a lot of reasons
1:00:06
right now where we're looking at version one
1:00:08
of this and saying, well, that has all
1:00:10
these shortcomings. It probably won't be very good.
1:00:13
Here's why we might not want
1:00:15
to use it or where it might fail. But this
1:00:17
is version one. The things we're seeing,
1:00:19
look at the Humane AI pin. That
1:00:21
is something that I don't think
1:00:24
has much of a use right now in
1:00:26
what we see now, but that is also
1:00:28
a direct attack on the smartphone. At
1:00:31
some point, one of these attacks might
1:00:33
actually succeed because we're seeing
1:00:35
really only the very early versions of it. But
1:00:38
if one of those does eventually take
1:00:40
off and start really undermining
1:00:43
the smartphone in some way, Apple
1:00:45
better be there. And so I think that
1:00:47
kind of a Balmer moment could happen to
1:00:49
Apple. We can see it. We can see
1:00:51
how it could happen. If
1:00:54
it comes from an area where Apple is not
1:00:56
strong, and I think – we'll see
1:00:58
how that goes. When we talk about the
1:01:00
Rabbit R1 and the Humane AI pin though, that stuff so
1:01:02
wants to be on a phone. So I think the only
1:01:04
way that would happen to Apple is it ends up being
1:01:06
on Android phones but not on iPhones through to stupid App
1:01:09
Store policy reasons. And that
1:01:11
would hurt Apple, but those things so clearly want to
1:01:13
be on a phone. It's just that the companies putting
1:01:15
them out don't have a phone platform to put them
1:01:17
on. So they're trying to go down their own with
1:01:20
pins and the little play date type thing. But
1:01:23
those things just feel so naturally at home on
1:01:25
a phone. And it remains to be seen, like
1:01:27
we said, when we talked about the Apple AI stuff
1:01:29
most recently. Is the AI stuff a
1:01:31
commodity or is it a competitive advantage?
1:01:33
Because if it's a commodity, Apple will just license it or make some
1:01:35
of its own or whatever. But
1:01:38
if it's a competitive advantage, how big is that advantage
1:01:40
and how much is the way against all the other
1:01:42
stuff? That's why I threw a whole headband out there
1:01:44
because it's like what if there's something that replaces the
1:01:46
phone? But a lot of that AI stuff is going
1:01:48
to be perfectly – its natural home is on the
1:01:50
phone. It's the computing device that you already have that
1:01:52
already has microphones, that already has cameras, that
1:01:54
already is connected to the internet. You already pay for
1:01:56
that connection. It already has a platform and software and CPUs
1:01:58
in it. all the stuff you
1:02:00
need and you just need to connect it to the large language model. And
1:02:03
yeah, Apple could screw that up by being dumb and
1:02:05
everyone else connects to a large language model and no
1:02:07
one wants to license it to Apple or Apple has
1:02:10
a KERDI1. But I just
1:02:12
look at how much the terribleness of Siri
1:02:14
has hurt the iPhone and the answer is not
1:02:16
that much. Despite the fact that the voice systems
1:02:18
on every other platform have been better significantly
1:02:20
for years, it hasn't really hurt the iPhone too
1:02:22
much. So I still feel like the... I
1:02:26
keep saying hollow headband and people probably thinking I'm saying
1:02:28
Vision Pro, but I'm trying to think of some fantastical
1:02:30
future thing that obviates our need to hold rectangles with
1:02:32
screens. Well, and so this actually
1:02:34
leads me into the second refutation or kind
1:02:36
of clarification I want to make on this
1:02:39
whole topic is the way that I think
1:02:41
we've all characterized it here and there in
1:02:43
this conversation with Apple's behavior now, we've kind
1:02:45
of said like we wish they would be
1:02:47
a little like let go a little bit
1:02:50
or be a little bit nicer or more
1:02:52
gracious with some of these App
1:02:55
Store related policies. The
1:02:57
failure of leadership here is not
1:03:00
that they are not being nice enough and
1:03:02
for them to ease up their grip a little bit
1:03:04
on some of these areas would not
1:03:07
be them being charitable. I think
1:03:09
it's actually strategically the right move
1:03:11
to have done that for lots
1:03:13
of reasons that would generally benefit
1:03:15
the company and its users and
1:03:17
developers all because the grip they
1:03:19
have held has been so damaging
1:03:22
to the entire ecosystem and to
1:03:24
them and their products that
1:03:26
has invited so much of this
1:03:29
regulation and the regulation comes with
1:03:31
it the possibility to significantly
1:03:33
negatively affect them if for instance, if
1:03:35
you look at what the DOJ is
1:03:37
asking for in the lawsuit, they're
1:03:40
asking for some pretty significant changes
1:03:42
to the way Apple makes integrated
1:03:45
products. That is
1:03:47
a massive attack on Apple's
1:03:49
entire method of making products.
1:03:51
It is a huge attack
1:03:53
on key components of their
1:03:56
operating system, their hardware, their
1:03:58
integration. If the DOJ
1:04:00
gets what it wants, even if the DOJ only
1:04:03
gets part of what it wants, it
1:04:05
could really negatively impact Apple.
1:04:08
And for Apple's leadership to have basically
1:04:11
driven the ship directly into this
1:04:13
and invited these attacks from governments
1:04:15
by being so incredibly
1:04:17
anti-competitive in so many areas for
1:04:19
so long, I think
1:04:22
that shows a failure of leadership and a
1:04:24
failure of strategy. When I say I
1:04:26
wish Apple would have avoided some of this by loosening the
1:04:28
grip a little bit, I'm not saying that
1:04:30
they should have been nice, that they should have been
1:04:32
charitable, that they should have been generous. No, I'm saying
1:04:34
they actually made a strategic error that will cost them
1:04:37
more in the long term in much larger areas. Yeah,
1:04:39
we've been saying that for – it feels like
1:04:42
for years now, but the problem is Apple disagrees
1:04:44
with us so quickly. So characterizing it
1:04:46
the way we do of like that they should loosen
1:04:48
their grip or they should be nicer is trying to
1:04:50
tell them what behavior they should change, but the argument
1:04:52
has always been Apple – if you do this,
1:04:55
it will literally be better for you in the
1:04:57
long run, which I've always said is supposed to
1:04:59
be – Apple is always going on about how
1:05:01
like we take a long view, we don't care
1:05:04
about the ROI, we do what's right. And
1:05:06
they have done – Apple has done – it's
1:05:09
not just hype. Apple has done many, many things
1:05:11
since the return of Steve Jobs going on for
1:05:13
decades, including in the Tim Cook era,
1:05:15
decisions that are bad in the short term but
1:05:17
good in the long term. Apple does that all
1:05:19
the time except in this one area. And the
1:05:21
reason is because they disagree with us. They don't
1:05:23
think it's going to happen in the long term.
1:05:26
We obviously think it is, but we don't run
1:05:28
Apple. So yeah, when we say they should be
1:05:30
nicer, it's not because we were telling them to
1:05:33
be magnanimous or to give up money or whatever.
1:05:35
It's because we literally think it will make the
1:05:37
company more money in the long run, like so
1:05:39
many other things that they have done that were
1:05:41
sort of counter to conventional wisdom, counter to what
1:05:43
their competitors were doing that seemed like a bad
1:05:46
move that took years to come to fruition. So
1:05:49
many of those are why Apple is where it is
1:05:51
today. And we're trying to say this is another one,
1:05:53
Apple, and they're saying they disagree. And
1:05:55
what Marco was saying, if he was ready to make this
1:05:57
reference, he could have. The
1:06:00
more Apple tightens its grip, the more developers will
1:06:02
slip through its fingers. We
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for your consideration, and now back to the show.
1:07:53
Apple Vision Pro personas can now be
1:07:55
3D and float freely across different apps.
1:07:57
So reading from the Verge. Starting
1:08:03
today as Virg writes, Vision Pro Personas will be
1:08:05
able to do more than hover like a ghost
1:08:07
in FaceTime calls. Now you can use them in
1:08:09
SharePlay-enabled apps to collaborate, play games, or watch media
1:08:11
with other people. Apple is calling this
1:08:13
a spatial persona. The idea is to make it feel
1:08:15
like you're in the same physical space as another user.
1:08:18
It was part of what Apple showed in
1:08:20
developer previews last year but hasn't been available
1:08:22
in the actual persona beta until now. I
1:08:24
will point you to this week's Connected where
1:08:27
they discussed this and had a really good
1:08:29
conversation about it. I do plan
1:08:31
on trying this in the next couple of days.
1:08:33
In fact, I was trying to get some time
1:08:35
with Mike from Connected in
1:08:37
order to try this before we recorded it. It
1:08:39
just, our schedules didn't work out today. I apologize
1:08:41
to all of you for not having been able
1:08:43
to make that work but stuff happens. Check
1:08:46
out Connected if you're interested in that. Marco, I'm
1:08:48
assuming you haven't tried it because you never asked
1:08:50
me to. I'm not sure how many people you
1:08:52
know with Vision Pro. What
1:08:55
is your understanding here? You're
1:08:57
right. I have not tried it. In fact,
1:09:00
my Vision Pro is not even in
1:09:02
my house right now. I actually lent
1:09:04
it to a friend
1:09:07
for a few days because I
1:09:09
hardly ever use it. I wish that
1:09:13
this was not my answer to this question but I
1:09:16
don't think this is going to change my usage
1:09:18
of the Vision Pro at all because, I mean,
1:09:21
first of all, I still can't get it to look right with my eyes.
1:09:24
That's a separate problem. I guess that's a me problem
1:09:26
just like how AirPods never fit me until the AirPod
1:09:28
Pros. The Vision Pro does
1:09:30
not work with my eyes. I
1:09:33
know it's not my eyes fault because when I
1:09:35
put on my son's $500 Metacrest 3, everything is
1:09:39
tack sharp. I can see every single
1:09:41
sharp edge of all of those blocky
1:09:43
pixels on those little resolution screens. With
1:09:46
no adjustments, all I do, I crank the little head thing back
1:09:48
because he's a kid so he has a head smaller than mine.
1:09:50
I just crank the little head thing back to make it bigger,
1:09:52
stick it on my head. No adjustments,
1:09:54
no setup, perfectly sharp. And
1:09:57
I put on the Vision Pro no matter what I do with the Vision
1:09:59
Pro. I've tried everything,
1:10:02
believe me, everything I've tried
1:10:05
and it is a blurry mess. And so I
1:10:08
have a very hard time using it for anything.
1:10:12
Even if I get past that, I think
1:10:15
this is – first of all, I have major concerns about the Vision
1:10:17
Pro. I'll get to those in a little bit when we talk about
1:10:19
the soccer video, but I'm
1:10:21
not motivated to use it. I'm going weeks
1:10:24
at a time without even putting it
1:10:27
on because I'm just not finding those
1:10:29
compelling use cases that fit into my
1:10:31
life. Yeah, so
1:10:34
recently – I don't know, maybe it was a
1:10:36
couple of months back – I added a shortcut
1:10:39
to – and I think we might have talked
1:10:41
about this on the show. I added a shortcut
1:10:43
to both my iPad and the kids' hand-me-down iPad
1:10:46
that will send me a push notification when either
1:10:48
of those iPads falls below 20% battery. And
1:10:51
I did that because even
1:10:53
though the iPad is not an essential device
1:10:55
for me and is mostly not an
1:10:57
essential device for the kids, I
1:11:00
am never happy when it's completely
1:11:02
discharged. And I would notice probably
1:11:05
relatively quickly and probably
1:11:08
at an inopportune moment
1:11:10
I have no idea what the battery state
1:11:12
of my Vision Pro is ever. And
1:11:16
that's mostly okay because I'm just not using
1:11:18
it that much. And I think
1:11:22
it's a few different reasons. You guys
1:11:24
covered this really well from a developer in like
1:11:26
business perspective under the radar or the most recent
1:11:28
under the radar. There's
1:11:31
obviously more to it than just the business perspective, but
1:11:35
from a personal and user perspective, I do very
1:11:38
much like the product. And
1:11:42
I think it is, as everyone has
1:11:44
said, a technological marvel. I
1:11:47
don't have a lot of occasions for
1:11:49
it in my life. And
1:11:52
I think a lot of that is because
1:11:54
it's so immensely antisocial. I think Apple did
1:11:56
as good a job as they possibly could
1:11:58
with making it social. But inevitably,
1:12:00
you have a humongous set
1:12:03
of goggles on your face between you
1:12:05
and your eyes and the other person's
1:12:07
eyes. And
1:12:10
that's just never going to work. You're never going to be
1:12:12
able to watch something together because my
1:12:14
limited experience with Share Play is not great. And
1:12:17
what are you going to do? You're going to have one person looking
1:12:19
at a TV and the other person looking at the Vision Pro in
1:12:21
the same damn room? Like, that's, that's, yeah, Aaron, why don't you sit
1:12:23
next to me with these idiotic goggles on
1:12:25
my face while we watch this movie together
1:12:28
because the fidelity on the Vision Pro, you
1:12:30
just don't understand, honey. It's just that much
1:12:32
better. Right now. We're going
1:12:34
to spend $7,000 on Vision's Pro instead of
1:12:36
getting, instead of just using our TV together.
1:12:38
Right, right, right. And as we established,
1:12:40
the fidelity actually isn't better if you have a
1:12:43
4K television, decent 4K television that you're a reasonable
1:12:45
distance from. Or a subwoofer. Yeah, right,
1:12:47
right, exactly. So anyways, there
1:12:49
are occasions when it is freaking
1:12:52
magical. And I really do mean
1:12:54
that. I mean, being, I will
1:12:56
forever and always be dumbfounded and
1:12:58
incredibly impressed by Mac Virtual Display.
1:13:02
And the handful of times I brought the
1:13:04
Vision Pro to like the library to work,
1:13:07
I have used the Mac Virtual Display
1:13:09
and it is just chef's kiss. It
1:13:11
is just incredible. I could not
1:13:13
say enough good things about it. The
1:13:15
problem though is that you're that idiot at the
1:13:18
library wearing the Vision Pro. And so the only
1:13:20
times I've been able to do it because I
1:13:22
just haven't had the gumption to do it otherwise
1:13:24
is when I'm in a private room that granted,
1:13:27
you know, has glass walls on behind me or
1:13:29
whatever. But I'm facing an interior wall and
1:13:31
so the only thing that people can see as they walk
1:13:34
by is the back of my head. And
1:13:36
I'm secluded from the rest of the library.
1:13:39
And the other day I went back to Wegmans to work for
1:13:41
the first time in a long time. And
1:13:44
it's really delightful at Wegmans. You know, there's really
1:13:46
great Wi-Fi, and no, not to say our libraries
1:13:48
are bad by any stretch. But
1:13:50
anyways, Wegmans is really nice. It's got comfortable chairs, really
1:13:52
great Wi-Fi, power all over the place. And
1:13:55
you know, if I'm thirsty or hungry or whatever, I can go
1:13:57
and grab a snack. But I'm not going
1:13:59
to use the Vision Pro. there. It's just too look
1:14:01
at me, look at me. And so
1:14:03
I haven't had a
1:14:06
lot of places where I think to myself, you know
1:14:08
what? Now is vision pro
1:14:10
time. And the only times I can really
1:14:12
think of other than when I'm working privately
1:14:14
even in a public spot is
1:14:16
on the rare occasions that Erin has a social thing
1:14:18
in the evening so she's out, the kids are asleep,
1:14:21
and then hell yeah I'll put that on and watch
1:14:23
a movie because I'll watch something in 3D or what
1:14:26
have you or I'll do
1:14:28
something along those lines and that's pretty cool. And
1:14:31
bringing us
1:14:33
to the next topic, you know
1:14:35
the immersive stuff is
1:14:37
just phenomenal even though this new
1:14:39
video kind of wasn't. So
1:14:42
what am I talking about? So when
1:14:44
Apple first debuted the vision pro there
1:14:46
were several immersive experiences and again just
1:14:48
to set the table or set the
1:14:52
conversation, there's 3D
1:14:54
where you're looking at say
1:14:56
a rectangle and there's
1:14:59
depth to the images in that
1:15:01
rectangle, right? But you can't
1:15:03
change your perspective at all. You're
1:15:05
still always looking at a fixed,
1:15:07
from a fixed camera, you're looking
1:15:09
at something that now has depth in
1:15:11
a way that my television on my wall does
1:15:13
not but it's still
1:15:16
a rectangle. There's nothing you can do about that. And
1:15:18
when you mean fixed camera just to be clear, what
1:15:20
you basically can't do is you can't move the camera
1:15:22
forward or backwards up or down left or right but
1:15:24
you can rotate because the camera's field of view is
1:15:26
larger than your field of view so you can turn
1:15:28
your head, imagine your head, the camera's replaced with your
1:15:30
head, you can turn your head, you can look up,
1:15:32
you can look down, you can look up, you can
1:15:35
look right but you can't take a step forward. But
1:15:37
I know what that's, you're getting ahead of me. I'm
1:15:39
talking about just vanilla 3D like Marvel movies is what
1:15:41
I'm saying. Same answer though, same answer. If
1:15:43
you're sitting close to the screen you can't ever change
1:15:45
your perspective in a 3D movie
1:15:48
same way. Like even if you're sitting in the front row you
1:15:50
can turn your head to the left, you can turn your head
1:15:52
to the right, you can look up, you can look down but
1:15:54
you can't take a step forward and see like more of the
1:15:56
back of something like, oh I can't see what's written on the
1:15:58
side of that truck, let me take two two steps forward and now
1:16:00
I can see it. That's not how 3D
1:16:02
movies work and that's not how Vision Pro
1:16:05
3D works for these things that we're recording.
1:16:08
Right, but I mean, just to make sure we're saying the
1:16:10
same thing, 3D is when you're
1:16:12
watching a Marvel movie or something along those lines
1:16:14
and there's depth to that movie in a way
1:16:16
that there isn't depth in your TV. But
1:16:19
you have zero control over the perspective of what you're
1:16:21
looking at. You are along for the ride. With
1:16:24
immersive stuff, and I think this is what
1:16:26
you're describing, John, with immersive stuff, yes, you
1:16:28
can turn your head, you can
1:16:31
go up and down left or right, and
1:16:33
that will actively change what you're looking at.
1:16:35
You have, you are immersed in
1:16:37
this environment. You have agency
1:16:39
over where you're looking. Well, it's definitely just because
1:16:41
the screen is really wide and really tall. Yeah,
1:16:45
it's basically using a 180 degree camera. It's
1:16:49
like you're sitting extremely close to a
1:16:51
very large 3D movie. The
1:16:54
screen that wraps around you. Yeah, you still
1:16:56
can't shift your head left or right and
1:16:59
look around objects. That's not a thing
1:17:01
you can do. You're still fixed
1:17:03
in what you are seeing, but
1:17:05
your field of view is way bigger.
1:17:09
And the comparison in the Vision Pro world is
1:17:11
the immersive environments that are 3D modeled where
1:17:14
you can actually take
1:17:17
one step forward before you go in and
1:17:19
turn your head to the side of the
1:17:21
surroundings. Those are 3D modeled and you're essentially
1:17:23
changing the position of the camera because the
1:17:25
camera is your eyes in those immersive 3D
1:17:27
model environments. Right, so
1:17:29
in any case, what we're talking about
1:17:31
is when the Vision Pro was released,
1:17:33
there were I think four off top
1:17:35
of my head immersive experiences. So there
1:17:37
was a thing with a woman on
1:17:39
a tightrope on a fjord in Norway,
1:17:42
I guess. There was a completely computer
1:17:44
animated dinosaur experience. This is not the
1:17:46
thing that everyone got in the demo
1:17:48
in June. This is like your, it's
1:17:50
a video effectively, but it's an immersive
1:17:52
video. So you can look around and
1:17:54
change your perspective. There
1:17:56
was a thing about rhinoceroses
1:17:59
or something along those. lines where this was a
1:18:01
documentary, a very brief documentary. And then
1:18:03
finally, there was the something like half
1:18:05
an hour, 45 minute Alicia Keys concert
1:18:08
where you're in a studio
1:18:10
space and the perspective occasionally changes between
1:18:12
cameras. But the point is you can
1:18:14
look around and you know, if if
1:18:16
the bass players just jamming out and
1:18:18
doing something incredibly exciting, you can turn
1:18:20
your head and watch the bass player,
1:18:22
which is pretty freakin cool. So that
1:18:24
was the only four things. And for
1:18:26
the Rhino one and for the, the,
1:18:28
um, the tightroping one, tightrope
1:18:30
walking one, they were listed as episode
1:18:32
one back in February two or whatever
1:18:34
it was that this came out. And
1:18:37
we still haven't gotten anything since. But,
1:18:39
uh, last week, Apple released their
1:18:41
immersive video sports film on Apple
1:18:43
vision pro. And this was an
1:18:46
immersive video featuring highlights from the 2023
1:18:49
major league soccer cup playoffs. So this
1:18:51
is the American soccer slash football, uh,
1:18:55
what the Brits would call football, um, uh,
1:18:58
playoffs and, and in finals. And
1:19:00
the first time I watched it, I
1:19:03
was really,
1:19:06
really disappointed by it. And it's been
1:19:09
talked about a lot. I forget specifically where,
1:19:11
um, Jason Snell talked about it at six
1:19:13
colors a bit and Ben talked about it
1:19:16
on strip. Ben Thompson talked about it on
1:19:18
Stratecory a bit. And also I think it
1:19:20
was covered on dithering if I'm not mistaken.
1:19:22
But the problem with the immersive video, the
1:19:24
soccer video is that it
1:19:27
was edited like a commercial
1:19:29
for regular old TV. So
1:19:32
it was, Oh, look over here. Change. Look over
1:19:34
here. Oh, look at this thing. Now look at
1:19:36
that thing. Now look at this thing. Now look
1:19:38
at that thing, which is fine.
1:19:40
If you're watching something where you don't
1:19:42
have any influence on what you're looking
1:19:44
at, but so
1:19:46
often I would be put in
1:19:48
a situation where I'm, I'm maybe the
1:19:50
players are walking onto the field on either side of me. You
1:19:52
know, you're at the edge of the field, the perspective of the
1:19:54
cameras at the edge of the field, the players are walking by
1:19:56
you onto your left and to your right, going to the center
1:19:59
of the field. do like a coin
1:20:01
toss or whatever. And you're naturally panning and
1:20:03
tilting your head, you know, and trying to
1:20:05
see different things that are happening in the
1:20:07
scene. And by the time
1:20:09
you're just getting a feel for like, okay,
1:20:11
I see the scene, I get what's going
1:20:13
on here, and I'm now going
1:20:16
to concentrate on wherever the video appears to
1:20:18
want me to concentrate. Well guess what? Now
1:20:20
we're somewhere else. And what made it even
1:20:22
worse was a lot of times there would
1:20:24
be a soccer ball rolling down the field
1:20:26
as people are kicking it down the field.
1:20:28
And you would get this like view from
1:20:30
way off in the corner. And you'd be looking
1:20:32
Oh, where's the soccer ball? There it is. All
1:20:34
right, I'm gonna focus on soccer ball, which is
1:20:37
approximately, you know, down to my left. And then
1:20:39
next thing you know, Oh, now the soccer ball
1:20:41
is over to my right. And it
1:20:43
was infuriating.
1:20:46
The second time I watched it, which was about an hour ago, knowing
1:20:49
what I was getting into, I liked
1:20:51
it a lot more. But it's really
1:20:54
damn annoying. Because the whole point of
1:20:56
immersive video where you can change the
1:20:58
perspective by tilting your head all around,
1:21:00
is that you want to give that
1:21:02
some space and some air to breathe,
1:21:05
you know, and you want to be
1:21:07
able to look
1:21:09
where you want to freakin look. And
1:21:11
the Alicia Keys thing did this so much
1:21:13
better because they had nothing we talked about
1:21:15
this on the show, like several of these
1:21:17
different position or as positioned
1:21:19
throughout the studio space, and they
1:21:22
would cut between them, but they would do
1:21:24
it like every minute or two.
1:21:26
And so you can really settle in to
1:21:28
where the camera is, and look around and
1:21:30
take in what you want to take in.
1:21:32
And yeah, it occasionally was annoying if like
1:21:34
you were positioned on one extreme end of
1:21:36
the studio. And that bassist who's just killing
1:21:38
it is way on the other end of
1:21:40
the studio. So you so they're far away,
1:21:43
and you can look over where they are,
1:21:45
but they're far away. And that's annoying.
1:21:47
But it's still nice that you have
1:21:50
the space to settle in and look
1:21:52
at what you want to look at.
1:21:54
And with this, it was just rapid
1:21:56
fire in a way that was extremely
1:21:59
off put. So I have
1:22:01
some quotes to read, but Marco, you said you did
1:22:03
watch this, is that right? I have not. I mean,
1:22:05
because honestly, like every time
1:22:07
I've watched video on my
1:22:09
Vision Pro, I've gotten eye strain and a
1:22:11
headache, and I have to stop. Because again,
1:22:14
I can't get it to be that sharp.
1:22:17
And again, I've tried everything.
1:22:19
I have tried the reader lenses. I've
1:22:22
tried different settings. I have tried the
1:22:24
different hacks for the face shields, having
1:22:26
no face shield, different gaskets. I
1:22:29
have tried everything. It doesn't look good
1:22:31
enough. I would feel a lot better just watching something on
1:22:33
a laptop. But that being said,
1:22:35
this isn't particularly for me because I'm not a
1:22:38
sports person. I understand what people
1:22:40
are saying and what you're saying about how it's
1:22:43
edited like a traditional
1:22:45
video and it's not really
1:22:47
edited for the new format. And
1:22:50
I forgive them for that, for the very
1:22:52
first tease or whatever in
1:22:55
most ways. I think
1:22:57
the way that I have concerns,
1:23:01
it points to the larger concern I have
1:23:03
with the Vision Pro, which is did
1:23:06
no one at Apple think
1:23:08
this was a problem? Did they
1:23:10
watch it? Because so far, everyone
1:23:13
who has watched it who knows
1:23:15
sports and who knows the Vision
1:23:17
Pro in our tech press group
1:23:20
here, everyone's had the same feedback. I'm like,
1:23:22
oh yeah, this is not the right style for this. It's disorienting.
1:23:24
It's not good. Did
1:23:26
Apple not know that? Did they not put it through a
1:23:29
test audience of any kind? Apple's
1:23:31
a big company though. And I think
1:23:33
the evidence that Apple institutionally does know
1:23:35
this is all the demos they actually
1:23:37
gave on the Vision Pro thing, all
1:23:40
of those had, not just the Alicia
1:23:42
Keys thing, but the typewriter walker, all
1:23:44
those things had a stationary camera without
1:23:46
lots of cuts. The people
1:23:49
who made those must have understood that because
1:23:51
there was such a variety of content in
1:23:53
the short little demo and all of it
1:23:55
was like the one thing that did move
1:23:57
was like the slow moving demo. drone
1:24:00
shot that you see in like the Apple
1:24:02
TV screensaver, it's just so slowly like no
1:24:04
fast movement, no fast cuts, like so somewhere
1:24:06
in the organization, probably in the Vision Pro
1:24:09
team, are people that know this. Now who
1:24:11
put together this MLS thing? Probably
1:24:14
an entirely different set of people. And
1:24:16
you know, big companies, like people
1:24:19
in one org aren't communicating with people in the other org, or
1:24:21
if they are, they don't want to be told what to do.
1:24:24
And that's where I give some forgiveness because it's like,
1:24:26
look, the people who did this, either
1:24:31
didn't know, hadn't taken on board the
1:24:33
institutional knowledge that clearly exists in Apple
1:24:35
related to Vision Pro stuff, or
1:24:37
they had heard that advice but thought, well, but
1:24:39
we've been cutting sports together for our entire career,
1:24:41
so we know better. So we're going to try
1:24:44
it like this, right? And
1:24:46
there is a little bit of a dance here because
1:24:48
the dance is between the person doing the editing and
1:24:50
the person doing the watching. Casey was watching in the
1:24:52
way that he chose to watch immersive content, which was
1:24:54
finding the things that he wanted to look at and
1:24:57
looking at them. You could also look
1:24:59
at immersive content without moving your head at all and just
1:25:01
look at what's in front of you and enjoy the 3D
1:25:03
effect, which is the way some other people may do it.
1:25:06
Obviously they haven't worked out the kinks here, but I
1:25:08
think maybe if
1:25:11
this knowledge was communicated, maybe
1:25:13
the sports people said, well, that's too limiting. Yeah, that
1:25:15
works fine for your demo where you have a locked
1:25:17
off camera and you change from
1:25:19
one camera to another once every 90 seconds. But
1:25:22
that's not going to work for an exciting
1:25:25
sports thing. And by the way, I think the biggest
1:25:27
problem with the sports thing was that it was a
1:25:29
five minute highlight reel that is
1:25:31
not teasing you for any longer content because there is
1:25:33
no longer content. You know what I mean? And
1:25:36
it's a five minute highlight reel for games that happened last
1:25:38
year. It's a highlight reel. What would be great when you
1:25:40
can watch the whole game in immersive video? You can't. So
1:25:44
anyway, but yes, I hope
1:25:46
this is just one of the stung-ups, but I will point out that so
1:25:49
this how to handle
1:25:53
making things exciting in video while also making it trackable is
1:25:55
also a thing in 2D video. And despite the by this
1:25:57
point, I think it's a very good idea to watch the
1:25:59
whole game. 100 plus years of making
1:26:01
moving pictures and how to edit them, still people get it
1:26:03
wrong. And even the most recent example, I was thinking about
1:26:05
this, Casey, when you were saying looking at the base player
1:26:08
or looking off to the side of the soccer ball, the
1:26:11
most recent example that people know from being
1:26:13
on the internet and reading various articles
1:26:15
and reviews about it is Mad Max's Fury Road. Have either
1:26:17
of you saw this movie? Casey must have seen it, right?
1:26:20
I've seen it. Actually, I just rewatched it maybe a
1:26:22
month ago. Parker, have you seen it? Of course not.
1:26:25
Okay. Anyway, when that
1:26:27
movie first came out, one of the many genres
1:26:29
of like sort of, you know, press
1:26:31
surrounding the movie was about the director
1:26:33
and specifically about a technique the director
1:26:36
used, and I'm sure there's a YouTube
1:26:38
video showing it, where there's lots of
1:26:40
quick cuts and lots of actions in action movie. People
1:26:42
are fighting and jumping and crashing cars and shooting and
1:26:44
doing all sorts of stuff like that. And
1:26:46
it does use a lot of fast
1:26:49
cuts. And the technique the director used to make it
1:26:51
so that the audience doesn't get lost is
1:26:53
that when it would do
1:26:55
cut, cut, cut from one, one camera to another
1:26:58
camera to another camera to another perspective, another perspective,
1:27:00
he would doggedly keep the most
1:27:02
interesting thing that you needed to
1:27:04
look at dead center in
1:27:07
the frame, which is not a
1:27:09
thing most people do. Most people are like, Oh, we're
1:27:11
going to compose the image on my frame, and I'll
1:27:13
use rule of thirds, and I'll try to guide the
1:27:15
eye to this thing or whatever. But George
1:27:18
Miller, I think that's the direction I'm correctly realized that if
1:27:20
we're going to do lots of fast cuts in action, I
1:27:22
want people to track it. I don't want them to have
1:27:24
to every time there's a cut figure out where the point
1:27:26
of interest in this frame is. So we kept a dead
1:27:28
center, which are typically seems like it's not so super boring.
1:27:31
Like you're drawing a bullseye and you're like, look, when we
1:27:33
go to this camera, whatever I want them to look at,
1:27:35
I want them to see this hand punching this face. I
1:27:37
want to see this knife being stabbed in
1:27:39
this direction. I want to see just
1:27:42
put a dead center in the frame so
1:27:44
you can put your eyes in the center
1:27:46
of the movie screen or your television screen
1:27:48
and endure incredibly fast, exciting cuts and never
1:27:50
have to move your eyes because whatever they
1:27:52
wanted you to see, most importantly, with dead
1:27:54
center in the frame. And maybe those frames
1:27:56
aren't as artistically interesting if they had been
1:27:59
composed in a. more painterly manner
1:28:01
or whatever, but it allows
1:28:03
very fast action to be more easily
1:28:05
tracked by the people watching it. It
1:28:07
doesn't require them to do anything interesting.
1:28:09
So I would say that if
1:28:12
you go into these immersive things and you never move
1:28:14
your head and you keep your eyes dead center, A,
1:28:17
you're sacrificing one of the
1:28:19
things that's cool in an immersive video, but
1:28:22
B, I bet they would actually work better.
1:28:25
You don't get to look at what you want as cool, but
1:28:28
at least you'll survive the cut. So maybe, Casey, I was going
1:28:30
to ask you, the second time you watch it, did you move
1:28:32
your head less? Probably,
1:28:34
yeah. I didn't think
1:28:36
about it consciously, but yes, probably. It's
1:28:40
too bad, too, because I am
1:28:44
a very enthusiastic viewer of
1:28:47
concert videos. In Plex,
1:28:49
I have probably a couple hundred different concert
1:28:51
videos, and only maybe a hundred of them
1:28:53
are deemed at these concerts. But anyway,
1:28:57
I really enjoy a concert film. I really, truly
1:28:59
do. And I would consider Hamilton, for
1:29:02
example, I know it's not a concert, but I don't
1:29:04
think it's too dissimilar. And
1:29:07
I love a
1:29:09
concert film. I love watching
1:29:11
certain sports. And one
1:29:14
of the most, did
1:29:17
we talk about this on the show? I don't recall
1:29:19
if we have, but one of the most, and I
1:29:21
hate the way they use this term, but the most
1:29:23
blowaway experiences I've had in the intro was when I
1:29:26
use the app, which is currently in beta, I believe
1:29:28
it's called Room. I don't
1:29:30
know if I'll be able to put my hands on a test
1:29:32
flight link or not because it's a test flight only at the
1:29:34
moment. But what Room does
1:29:36
is it lets you use
1:29:39
your F1 TV subscriptions. This
1:29:41
is where you pay to
1:29:44
get the F1 season that you can stream and
1:29:46
watch much later, watch live, what have you. And
1:29:49
F1, being super nerdy, is all about data.
1:29:51
And so they have immense amounts of telemetry
1:29:54
that you can get from F1 TV. They
1:29:57
have camera feeds and audio feeds for every
1:29:59
single day. every single car on the racetrack
1:30:01
they have obviously the footage that's being broadcast
1:30:03
on say ESPN if you're here in the
1:30:05
states but what room does is it says
1:30:07
right we're gonna take the main theme but
1:30:09
dead center in a rectangle right in front
1:30:11
of your face but you can
1:30:14
optionally add several
1:30:16
other panels around it
1:30:18
so you can do i believe that you could do
1:30:20
two panels to the left of the main panel to
1:30:22
panels to the right of main panel so you have
1:30:25
six panels so you have your main feed that's jump
1:30:27
in between you know all the different racers and whatnot
1:30:29
and then upper left you have your favorite driver bottom
1:30:31
left you have that driver's teammate because there's you know
1:30:33
two drivers per team and then maybe upper right you
1:30:36
have your rival uh... in bottom bottom right
1:30:38
you have their teammate or you know however you want to do
1:30:40
it even cooler is
1:30:42
below all this you can optionally put a
1:30:44
3d rendering of the racetrack and you can
1:30:47
see little dots racing around the
1:30:49
racetrack i cannot overstate how
1:30:51
incredibly f***ing cool this was
1:30:54
it is unbelievable
1:30:56
how cool it is
1:30:59
and so and and that's the thing you
1:31:02
can do there's an app called multi
1:31:04
viewer uh... for the desktop
1:31:06
that works okay uh...
1:31:09
but i've tried it in the past and i i i have
1:31:11
not had a good experience with it uh...
1:31:13
you can't do this near as well
1:31:16
on a desktop as you can with uh...
1:31:19
the vision pro and this moment
1:31:21
these moments like and that's not immersive at
1:31:24
all that they're well i get it it's
1:31:26
not really a mercy in the way we're
1:31:28
talking about but it concert an immersive concert
1:31:32
amazing when when
1:31:34
you watch immersive sports granted i'm
1:31:36
getting all these damn cuts all
1:31:38
the time for the brief
1:31:40
way for the three seconds before another cut happens
1:31:43
incredible and for me
1:31:46
i don't feel like i'm just up close
1:31:49
to a screen the way that you guys
1:31:51
have described it to me i
1:31:53
feel like i'm pretty man i really really do
1:31:56
and at the end they do their in your
1:31:58
in the locker room in the team celebrating
1:32:00
and I'm glad I actually watched it again because I
1:32:02
could swear that all these dudes had like vision pros
1:32:04
on even though they're spraying champagne at each other and
1:32:06
I was deeply confused by it. It turns out they
1:32:08
just have some sort of goggles on. I don't know
1:32:10
why I don't know enough about soccer to know what
1:32:12
why those goggles were there in the first place but
1:32:15
regardless in any case you
1:32:18
feel like you're there you feel like you're
1:32:20
in the locker room you feel like you're
1:32:22
about to get sprayed with champagne it is
1:32:24
immersive that's why they call it that and
1:32:27
it has so much
1:32:30
potential it would be
1:32:32
unreal and I think Ben in particular has
1:32:34
been banging the strum for a while it would
1:32:36
be unreal to have say courtside seats in an
1:32:38
NBA game just unreal because you can look up
1:32:41
at the jumbotron if you want you can look
1:32:43
at where the action is I don't
1:32:45
know if this could happen live and certainly given that
1:32:47
it took like three or four months for this to
1:32:49
get put together after the MLS season ended I don't
1:32:52
know if it would happen in a timely fashion
1:32:55
but if it could holy freaking
1:32:57
smokes it's amazing so let me quickly read
1:32:59
a couple of summaries
1:33:01
from Ben and Jason because I think it's relevant Jason
1:33:04
writes as you might expect from the run from the
1:33:06
runtime this video is a highlight package with lots of
1:33:09
quick cuts videos all about quick cuts but immersive video
1:33:11
doesn't work with quick cuts I don't think several times
1:33:13
during the MLS highlights video my head was turned in
1:33:15
one direction taking advantage of the 180 degree immersive space
1:33:17
to watch something happening off to my left or right
1:33:20
only for the vantage point to change to a different
1:33:22
perspective now I was staring at nothing it would take
1:33:24
a few seconds for me to scan my surroundings reorient
1:33:26
oftentimes a delay that led me to miss the highlight
1:33:28
I was meant to be viewing Ben
1:33:31
writes in short this video was
1:33:33
created by a team that had zero understanding a
1:33:35
sufficient pro or why sports fans might be so
1:33:37
excited about it I never got the opportunity to
1:33:39
feel like I was at one of these games
1:33:41
because the moment I started to feel the atmosphere
1:33:43
some amount of immersion there's another cut and frankly
1:33:45
the cuts were so fast I rarely if ever
1:33:48
felt anything this edit may have been perfect for
1:33:50
traditional 2d video posted to YouTube the entire point
1:33:52
of immersive video on the vision pro though is
1:33:54
that it is an entirely new kind of experience
1:33:56
that requires an entirely new approach now to jump
1:33:58
in for a second i cannot
1:34:00
overstate the stuff like it is unlike and
1:34:02
need thing i have done with just a
1:34:04
two d rectangle no matter how great my
1:34:06
two d rectangle is which my t.v. is
1:34:08
pretty good and certainly was a really good
1:34:10
back in twenty nineteen my god this
1:34:13
is just a whole different level so then continue both
1:34:15
of the good that is three days showing different picture
1:34:17
to your left and right i thought that the comparison
1:34:20
to a movie screen via piercing avatar in three d
1:34:22
with the three d glasses and you
1:34:24
are close to the screen you can turn your head left to the
1:34:26
right that would be the closest analogy of as we we
1:34:28
talked about the vision for originally differences vision for
1:34:31
the cut the brightness and half for
1:34:33
each of your eyes because of the civil rights but
1:34:35
it but again it's more though it's it's it's so
1:34:37
much more than that though i really think you're under
1:34:39
selling it when you say that because with avatar in
1:34:42
three d you don't get to change your perspective did
1:34:44
the perspective is your perspective but you don't be used
1:34:46
to establish that you don't have to change the perspective
1:34:48
of the massive video you can turn your head only
1:34:50
if avatar within three d and you didn't have to
1:34:52
work for a ride glasses like if you could see
1:34:55
avatar it's basically like avatar in the vision pro but
1:34:57
it wrapped around you like it wasn't a rectangle in
1:34:59
front it's just essentially a screen wrapped around
1:35:01
you spiritly different picture for left and
1:35:03
right i know uh... no uh... brightness
1:35:05
loss and a high-resolution and that's
1:35:08
not i mean i think just that because
1:35:10
that is significant and that's why they so
1:35:12
profoundly different feeling but it is essentially just
1:35:14
different pictures for your left and right i
1:35:17
i i i hear what you're saying that may
1:35:19
be technically accurate but the experience of it is
1:35:22
vastly different than that the boy and it's not
1:35:24
it's not like a real it's not known when
1:35:26
you're going on and i'm not going to you
1:35:28
you're too hung up on the the technical aspects
1:35:30
you know that but that but that's that is
1:35:32
the difference that is that that is why it
1:35:34
feels that i felt the difference myself i've watched
1:35:36
on the three-d movies like i said i thought
1:35:38
it feels different it's kind of like the touchscreen
1:35:40
on the i-thon felt different well it's just a
1:35:42
touch screen tomorrow's fun to yeah when
1:35:45
you cross the threshold something happens to
1:35:47
make it feel different to your point i think that's
1:35:49
vision pro and i think the thing is that if
1:35:52
you put me in an iMAX
1:35:54
you know theater with let's
1:35:57
suppose i had perfect no break
1:36:00
brightness altering glasses so that
1:36:02
I got a perfect view of this
1:36:04
IMAX screen that's rapping all around me.
1:36:06
I still
1:36:08
would be hard pressed to feel like it would hit
1:36:10
quite as well as a Vision Pro does. Well, but
1:36:12
that technology doesn't exist. That's why you've never felt that
1:36:14
there. Even still. Like, it really, I
1:36:16
cannot stress about how much it is. I mean, that
1:36:18
technology is just, that's the headset. That is, it's a
1:36:20
pair of glasses with no brightness cut off and high
1:36:23
resolution. Right. But all I'm saying is,
1:36:25
even if you're imagining like a 3D movie where
1:36:27
it wraps around you, like, I feel, I genuinely,
1:36:29
to me anyway, feel like it's more than just
1:36:31
that. Well, anyway, to finish up Ben continues, today
1:36:33
is April 1, 2024. The Vision Pro is available
1:36:36
to customers on February 2. In other words,
1:36:38
it has been just short of two months and there
1:36:40
isn't an episode two of any of these videos. There
1:36:42
is, as noted, only one additional immersive video that MLS
1:36:44
highlight reel that I'm so disappointed by. This
1:36:47
is frankly bizarre given that immersive videos arguably
1:36:49
the single most important thing in terms of
1:36:51
standing up the Vision Pro ecosystem. Maybe
1:36:54
this is all still going to happen, but
1:36:56
it is baffling to me that there's been
1:36:58
such a paucity of new immersive content from
1:37:00
Apple. But maybe this MLS clip explains why.
1:37:02
Apple has what I think is compelling
1:37:05
footage, but they didn't release it until it
1:37:07
had been heavily edited because I guess they
1:37:09
thought it looked better that way, even though
1:37:11
I think it looks worse. This is the
1:37:13
antithesis of a highly iterative experimental approach to
1:37:15
figure out what works, but perhaps Apple isn't
1:37:17
as capable of that as we might have
1:37:19
hoped. I think the explanation of this is,
1:37:21
you know, the sort of slow start is
1:37:23
mostly explained by the fact that Apple hasn't sold a
1:37:25
lot of these. And so the amount
1:37:27
of money, I feel like it's a penny pinching way
1:37:29
to do things, but say, look, why are we
1:37:31
going to spend millions and millions of dollars doing production
1:37:34
on this stuff when we know the
1:37:36
total potential audience, the TAM as they
1:37:38
would say in business speak, total addressable
1:37:40
market is so incredibly small
1:37:42
that it's around Europe because we just haven't
1:37:44
sold that many of these stupid headsets. So
1:37:47
it's like, wait, how much are we spending
1:37:49
per Vision Pro user to make
1:37:51
this sports video? And what I
1:37:53
would say to Apple, what Apple would say to itself, it's like,
1:37:56
well, it's chicken egg. Like you're never going to get more present
1:37:58
vision pro users if you don't make those videos. But
1:38:00
I know you don't want to make those videos at
1:38:02
a cost of $1,000 per Vision Pro user or whatever
1:38:05
it is, right? And so yeah, Ben's point is
1:38:07
like, they need to do it, if only to
1:38:09
get better at it, or at least to
1:38:11
spread the knowledge about how to be good at, to spread that
1:38:13
around and to work out the things. But I
1:38:16
still currently, I may be proven wrong, but
1:38:18
I still currently believe that Apple does have
1:38:20
pipelines of Vision Pro immersive content going. We
1:38:23
just haven't seen any of those pipelines push
1:38:25
the first things out the end. This
1:38:28
thing seems like a one-off or whatever, but I feel like
1:38:30
those pipelines are currently ramping up
1:38:32
and running. And I think
1:38:34
they will start spewing forth content maybe
1:38:37
sometime in the middle of the year or next
1:38:39
year. And is that part
1:38:41
of Apple's plan? Do they plan
1:38:43
to be, have those pipelines coming out sooner? If they
1:38:45
had gotten an NFL Sunday ticket, would it have changed
1:38:48
their plans? Are they waiting until they
1:38:50
have a few more Vision Pros sold? Are they waiting
1:38:52
until version two? There's all
1:38:54
sorts of explanations that you might have for this. From
1:38:56
the outside, it definitely looks like a miss. It looks
1:38:58
like a miss to people who own Vision Pros because they're
1:39:00
like, I bought this thing. It's sitting in my house.
1:39:03
I would like to be able to use it for something.
1:39:05
And Apple's like, yeah, yeah, we're getting to it. We're getting
1:39:07
to it. Hopefully they're saying we're getting to it and they're
1:39:09
not saying, oh, we never actually planned to make any immersive
1:39:11
content. We assume developers would do it because they love us.
1:39:14
I mean, first of all, I think there probably is
1:39:16
some of that for sure. I hope
1:39:19
not. I hope not too. But
1:39:21
it's very difficult to
1:39:24
look at the Vision Pro launch so far. Here
1:39:26
we are two months out to look at the Vision
1:39:28
Pro launch so far and say this is
1:39:30
going the way it was supposed to. I
1:39:34
have a really hard time believing that.
1:39:37
This is kind of a weird time in the sense that we
1:39:40
haven't seen WWDC yet. However,
1:39:43
that being said, given
1:39:45
that it seems like Vision OS
1:39:47
is just barely done now, I
1:39:51
honestly don't expect a lot from what they're probably
1:39:53
going to call Vision OS 2, which will
1:39:56
probably be debuting at WWDC and then
1:39:58
coming out this fall. I
1:40:00
wouldn't expect much from Vision OS 2. I
1:40:03
think Vision OS 2.0 will come with the App Store, right?
1:40:06
Because the thing is, if you look at it
1:40:08
again, where it is now, it launched basically
1:40:11
halfway through this Apple product year. It's
1:40:14
barely at a 1.0 –
1:40:16
I mean it's 1.1 now, but logically
1:40:18
it's kind of still a 1.0 product. It
1:40:21
barely is there now, and so
1:40:23
I don't see it somehow getting
1:40:26
massively more mature in the next two months.
1:40:28
That just seems too aggressive, software-wise. So I
1:40:30
don't think – if
1:40:32
you look at where it is now product-wise, I wouldn't
1:40:34
expect massive upgrades for 2.0. Okay,
1:40:36
what about apps? Well,
1:40:39
as I talked about under the radar, as Casey mentioned,
1:40:43
from a developer's point of view right now,
1:40:46
the install base of Vision
1:40:48
Pro owners is just so
1:40:50
tiny, and it seems like very
1:40:53
few apps really make sense on it right
1:40:55
now, that it's very difficult
1:40:57
as a developer to justify working on
1:40:59
it and porting an app or bringing an app or
1:41:02
writing a new app to it. There's
1:41:04
really not much reason for developers
1:41:06
to give any attention right now.
1:41:09
So that kind of rules up developers. So
1:41:11
there's also not that many apps for it that
1:41:13
kind of harms the computing angle.
1:41:16
So then that brings us back to content. Okay,
1:41:18
where's the content? That's still a big question
1:41:20
mark. And, you know, John, I hope you're right that
1:41:22
there's just a big pipeline and we're seeing none of
1:41:25
it yet, but I keep
1:41:27
going back to why did
1:41:29
they launch it? Most of
1:41:31
the content that was there on day one,
1:41:33
which is almost all of the content that
1:41:35
is still there now, that was mostly what
1:41:37
they had last June when they were doing
1:41:40
the press demos. It
1:41:42
seems like they haven't really put out
1:41:44
much new content in not two months,
1:41:46
but like seven months. I
1:41:49
don't know what they're waiting for. They
1:41:51
have this big splash and they launch
1:41:53
this big product, and
1:41:55
it's been crickets since then.
1:41:57
There's no apps. There's no
1:41:59
content. There's no
1:42:01
users. It's very difficult for
1:42:03
me to look at it right now and
1:42:06
to see Apple
1:42:09
putting what is necessary into
1:42:11
this to make it succeed. It seems like they
1:42:14
put it out there almost
1:42:16
reluctantly and they
1:42:18
just kind of hoped things
1:42:20
would support it. And that's not
1:42:22
going to happen because of the volumes and everything. So
1:42:25
Apple has to support it. And where
1:42:27
is that support? I
1:42:29
don't see it. It seems
1:42:31
like Apple itself is
1:42:33
not giving the Vision Pro what it needs to
1:42:35
succeed. I don't know what
1:42:38
you're talking about Marco because I have almost earned
1:42:40
back the cost of my developer strap from all
1:42:42
of my call-sales. Almost. $260 baby. So I actually
1:42:44
have another $100 to go, $150 to go, something like that.
1:42:49
Don't forget tax. The
1:42:51
thing with the Vision Pro is it
1:42:53
is a new product and
1:42:55
platform. And so first
1:42:59
I still do think there's a pipeline there
1:43:02
and everything. And the fact that it's such
1:43:04
an expensive product, the pipeline could have been
1:43:06
intentionally set up such that it doesn't really
1:43:08
start pushing the content until they
1:43:10
get the cheaper version out or whatever. But that just
1:43:12
screws everyone who buys it now. Honestly, if
1:43:14
you ask me, who should buy
1:43:16
the Vision Pro right now? My honest answer
1:43:19
is nobody. I wouldn't say that. I
1:43:21
would. Honestly, the more I've owned it,
1:43:23
the more I've shown it to other people, the
1:43:26
more we see that there's no content. Who
1:43:29
should buy the Vision Pro right now? My answer
1:43:31
really is nobody. No, I would
1:43:33
disagree. I think it's frequent travelers who do
1:43:35
not care about being that person. But
1:43:37
it's sex as a travel device. It's too big and clunky.
1:43:42
There's nothing equivalent to that except
1:43:44
for other similar VR products. The
1:43:48
VR experience in a plane, you need a VR thing
1:43:50
to do. And the Vision Pro is an expensive one
1:43:52
and there are a couple of cheaper ones that are
1:43:54
similar, but I can see that. It's
1:43:57
an early adopter product at this point, but the reason I mentioned it being a
1:43:59
new product is because it's a new product. is because one
1:44:01
of the things that is often true about new products at regular
1:44:03
companies, and this may or may not be true at Apple, I've
1:44:05
never worked there so I don't know, is
1:44:07
that new products
1:44:09
have plans about
1:44:12
their launch with predictions
1:44:14
about what will happen. And
1:44:17
very often, the thing that happens
1:44:19
next depends on how closely that
1:44:21
product matched the predictions. So
1:44:23
unlike something like the iPhone, it doesn't really have to
1:44:26
prove itself in the market because people
1:44:28
continue to buy iPhones or whatever, they just really
1:44:30
need to not screw up, right? This
1:44:32
thing needs to come out and they said, and we think when this
1:44:34
thing comes out, we're going to sell this many this fast. And
1:44:37
assuming we do that, then that
1:44:39
will trigger this pipeline to start churning
1:44:41
on this video or whatever. And it
1:44:44
could be that this new product has
1:44:46
not met Apple's internal expectations, which has
1:44:48
caused them to slow down on their,
1:44:50
like, hold your horses on those plans. And yeah, we were
1:44:53
going to invest $200 million into sports
1:44:55
content starting on the day of the launch,
1:44:58
if the launch went like X, but the launch was 10 times
1:45:00
worse than we thought it would be. So
1:45:02
maybe we'll hold back on that. Maybe
1:45:04
we'll hold back on that until the cheaper one
1:45:06
comes or whatever. Because
1:45:08
it's a new product, I think there
1:45:11
may be benchmarks that it had to
1:45:13
pass in order to get it that
1:45:15
next stuff ASAP. And
1:45:17
the reason I think about this is something that came up earlier in the
1:45:20
show, podcast
1:45:22
transcriptions. Doing
1:45:24
that podcast transcription stuff is
1:45:26
expensive. It's as expensive
1:45:28
as probably spinning up one small pipeline
1:45:30
of Vision Pro stuff, right? And
1:45:32
that's free free application. All
1:45:35
right. You know, Apple podcast is not despite
1:45:37
the premium podcast thing they rolled out, I
1:45:39
don't think of the huge moneymaker, right? But
1:45:41
because it's part of the iPhone, it's just
1:45:43
like, this is just another thing that makes
1:45:45
iPhones valuable. The iPhone is established
1:45:48
product, the iPhone, they're going to sell an
1:45:50
expected number of them. And
1:45:52
so someone had to get the budget to say, hey, we
1:45:54
want to do podcast transcriptions. Here's how much it's going to
1:45:56
cost every year forever and ever. single
1:46:00
podcast, here's how much it's costing computing, whatever,
1:46:02
and what is that offset by? We think
1:46:04
it will make the iPhone more valuable. No,
1:46:06
we're not gonna charge for this. It's gonna
1:46:08
be free for everybody. The podcast app is
1:46:10
gonna be free in the app store, right?
1:46:12
We're just gonna do it for free for
1:46:14
now anyway, right? That is a
1:46:16
big difference, but it does show that Apple, when
1:46:19
it has a product that is
1:46:21
performing as expected, is willing to put
1:46:23
a fairly large amount of money into
1:46:25
it, even with no return, whereas this
1:46:28
is saying, okay, why don't you just put a large amount
1:46:30
of money in because it's gonna make people buy more Vision
1:46:32
Pros? And it smells to me like either the pipeline was
1:46:34
always super delayed and they were aiming for when they get
1:46:36
the cheaper one, or they were gonna
1:46:38
go like gangbusters until they saw the first
1:46:40
month of sales, and they're like, you didn't
1:46:43
hit expectations, Vision Pro, you know, executive. And
1:46:46
so we're switching to the slower plan,
1:46:48
the plan that spaces
1:46:50
out the content production so that it lands
1:46:52
closer to when we have version two or three
1:46:55
of this and it's cheaper or whatever. With
1:46:57
Apple secrecy, we don't know, which
1:46:59
one of these things is right, but what we do know
1:47:02
is out here, as people who own Vision Pros, it doesn't
1:47:04
feel good. It feels like you got a product
1:47:06
and you're not sure what to do with it and it costs
1:47:08
you a lot of money and it's disappointing. And
1:47:10
I think that is part of
1:47:12
the risk of being an early adopter. It's a new platform, you
1:47:14
don't know how it's gonna do. You took the risk right along
1:47:17
with Apple. You paid the money, you got the thing. By
1:47:20
the time content appears, maybe version two is out and you're like,
1:47:22
oh man, I really wanted version two,
1:47:24
but I already spent all this money in version one. It's
1:47:29
tough launching a product. Not every product is a
1:47:31
guaranteed success, but I think for the most part,
1:47:33
Apple still has at least as much faith in
1:47:35
this as it did in, for example, the Apple
1:47:38
Watch and they're gonna keep turning on it
1:47:40
despite the fairly slow launch.
1:47:43
Is the slow launch slower than they expected or
1:47:45
is it exactly as slow as they expected? We
1:47:47
don't know, because again, they're not sharing their
1:47:50
numbers with us. We did know that there was a ceiling on how much
1:47:52
they could make just because of the screens and it
1:47:54
seems like even if that ceiling wasn't there, they probably wouldn't
1:47:56
have sold anymore, but it's a $3,100 weird headset. You
1:48:00
have to get special try-on stuff and
1:48:02
deal with the prescription stuff, and the batteries to
1:48:04
purchase it are high. So we
1:48:06
are very far from the iPhone 6 moment. We're
1:48:08
not even at the iPhone
1:48:11
OS 2.0 App Store moment. That was a joke about
1:48:13
the App Store. Yeah, the vision OS already comes to
1:48:15
the App Store, but you might be forgiven for thinking
1:48:17
that it doesn't. And what did iOS firmware 2.0 come
1:48:19
with? iOS
1:48:22
firmware 2.0 came with not
1:48:25
too much past 1.0, but
1:48:28
it did have the App Store, and that was a big
1:48:30
thing. So I also have very low expectations for vision OS
1:48:32
2.0 at WWDC. But
1:48:35
I continue to think that if
1:48:37
Apple sticks it out with Vision Pro, the year you
1:48:40
should pick your head back, I tell everyone
1:48:42
today should go do the free demo, because why wouldn't
1:48:44
you get used to expensive product for free? And it's
1:48:46
really cool. And to Casey's point, it does feel like
1:48:48
nothing you've ever done before unless you've used another headset.
1:48:52
And then wait a year or two and see
1:48:54
how this shakes up, because version two and three of this
1:48:56
is going to be better, but I honestly don't even think
1:48:58
the one that's really better than this is going to be
1:49:01
out for several years, because I think
1:49:03
first I'll do the cheaper one that's about as good, and
1:49:06
then you'll get the more expensive one or
1:49:08
the equally expensive one that's better. And
1:49:10
it's going to take a while for this ball to
1:49:12
get rolling if it starts rolling at all. And then
1:49:14
we'll find out how big this ball is, to torture
1:49:17
this analogy. The Apple Watch did
1:49:19
take off a lot faster than the people expected, but
1:49:21
it still seemed like it took years of the Apple
1:49:23
Watch kind of wandering the wilderness until people settled on.
1:49:27
It's a rich person's fitness tracker, right? And
1:49:30
that turns out to be a fairly
1:49:32
lucrative niche, but it took a
1:49:34
while to get there. So as someone
1:49:36
who didn't spend 35 minutes on this, I'm
1:49:38
willing to give it time
1:49:40
to grow. And I'm going to check back in on it
1:49:43
each year and see how it's doing. And I don't have
1:49:45
the bitterness of someone who bought one of these things, especially
1:49:48
if you bought it for development purposes and now you sold
1:49:50
two copies of your application, but welcome to my world. You
1:49:54
know, for the record, I'm not currently
1:49:57
bitter about it. I mean, I'm
1:49:59
bitter. in general that it's so damn expensive. But
1:50:01
I mean, I knew it going in and I'm not currently
1:50:03
and you didn't you didn't even charge extra for your vision
1:50:05
Pro thing. You're just leaving literally dozens
1:50:07
of dollars on the table. I
1:50:11
mean, yes, that is true. I'm not bitter
1:50:14
about it. And I think the
1:50:16
thing if I'm bitter about anything,
1:50:18
it's that there is to
1:50:21
my eyes, an immense amount of
1:50:23
potential here. And I can't get a good read, Marco,
1:50:25
if you agree with that or not, I'll give you
1:50:27
a chance in a second. But I
1:50:29
think there's an immense amount of potential
1:50:32
here. And there are moments where it
1:50:34
is. I mean, life
1:50:36
changing is traumatic. I wouldn't say
1:50:38
that. But I cannot. I mean,
1:50:40
like that room app, it is
1:50:42
unreal. And I don't particularly particularly
1:50:44
want to watch F1 any other
1:50:47
way. I literally will sit in the family room
1:50:49
if that's where everyone happens to be, such that
1:50:51
I am available to people. And I will put
1:50:53
the vision Pro on to watch F1, even if
1:50:55
F1 is showing on the TV right there, the
1:50:57
same thing I was making fun of people, you
1:50:59
know, this hypothetical of me saying to Aaron, Oh,
1:51:01
I'm going to be in my vision Pro. I
1:51:03
literally would do that for room because it is
1:51:05
that much better. It is that incredible. Anything
1:51:08
else I wouldn't bother like 3d avatar.
1:51:10
And I wouldn't bother I just watched
1:51:12
on the TV. But nevertheless, there
1:51:15
are so many things about this device
1:51:17
that are unreal. Again, Mac
1:51:19
virtual display for me and for
1:51:22
my eyes and literal and figurative
1:51:24
sense is incredible. The
1:51:27
immersive stuff, if we can get more
1:51:29
of it is incredible. The room app
1:51:31
as silly as it is to keep
1:51:33
harping on this, it is that incredible.
1:51:35
So there's so much potential here. And
1:51:37
I don't regret having bought it. But
1:51:41
knowing what I know now, I
1:51:44
don't know, like, I think it was a, a
1:51:47
professional responsibility, especially for the show,
1:51:49
but into some degree for call
1:51:51
sheet to buy one. But leaving
1:51:53
that aside, I don't think
1:51:55
it would have been a smart purchase. And I don't
1:51:57
think I would have purchased it were it not for
1:51:59
my professional. But I don't know, Marco, do
1:52:01
you see potential here or do you think it's
1:52:03
just a complete waste? I
1:52:06
think it is possible for this
1:52:08
product to succeed, but I am
1:52:11
not yet seeing any evidence that Apple will
1:52:13
be able to do what it takes to
1:52:16
make it succeed. So
1:52:18
what I think it will take is
1:52:20
Apple needs to dramatically
1:52:23
over-invest in it in a way
1:52:25
that does not make financial sense
1:52:27
directly in terms of
1:52:30
content, apps, games. Because
1:52:32
what they've made here is a really
1:52:35
great technology product that has
1:52:37
absolutely nothing in its ecosystem.
1:52:40
There is no content. There are no
1:52:42
games. There are no apps. There are
1:52:44
no users. How do you
1:52:46
solve this? You seed
1:52:48
it somehow. You invest money upfront
1:52:50
as the maker of the hardware
1:52:53
to fund the creation of content
1:52:55
to get users to buy it.
1:52:58
And eventually, if you succeed at
1:53:00
doing that, then you can
1:53:02
start relying more on third-party investment.
1:53:05
Like with Apple TV+, another great example,
1:53:07
they put so much money upfront to
1:53:09
millions of dollars to make those TV
1:53:11
shows so people would buy their service.
1:53:13
And that was a huge upfront investment
1:53:15
that only probably now has started to
1:53:17
finally pay off in terms of getting
1:53:19
subscribers. But what
1:53:21
they have here is a totally
1:53:24
clean slate that is empty. Like
1:53:28
when you turn that dial and you
1:53:30
are put into the, you know, the
1:53:32
Mount Hood environment and you
1:53:34
just hear the wind blowing by, that's
1:53:37
what the content ecosystem is like. It's
1:53:39
an empty field that just wind is
1:53:41
blowing by and there's nothing there. Even
1:53:45
the environments, there's still the two that are coming
1:53:47
soon that aren't even there yet. Like,
1:53:49
say what soon, man? No,
1:53:52
like I...it seems like nothing is
1:53:54
coming. And so hopefully I'm wrong. That's
1:53:56
just, I'm just saying that's how it
1:53:58
looks as... an outsider and
1:54:00
as an owner of this device. It seems like
1:54:03
nothing's there and nothing's coming. And I
1:54:05
can tell you for sure from the
1:54:08
developer side, there's no reason to bring
1:54:10
anything there. So Apple needs to see
1:54:14
that ecosystem themselves. They need to maybe pay
1:54:16
developers to make apps for it, maybe make
1:54:18
more apps themselves. Even Apple's own apps are
1:54:21
barely there. They have many of their own
1:54:23
apps that are still in iPad compatibility mode
1:54:25
for it or that aren't there at all.
1:54:28
So it seems like even Apple isn't
1:54:31
visibly investing in the content ecosystem. Maybe they are
1:54:33
behind the scenes and we haven't heard about it,
1:54:35
but it sure looks like they
1:54:38
don't have their foot on the gas either.
1:54:40
And one thing I
1:54:42
have learned over the years is to not care
1:54:45
about any of Apple's products more than Apple cares
1:54:47
about them. That is a
1:54:49
recipe for heartaches, see also the HomePod. And
1:54:52
so whenever Apple doesn't
1:54:54
care about a product that much, I shouldn't
1:54:56
either. And so far, it
1:54:58
seems like we are just
1:55:00
waiting for Apple to start investing
1:55:02
in the content ecosystem of this. And
1:55:05
until they do, I don't know why
1:55:07
we should. So I'm very
1:55:09
pessimistic on this product right now because I
1:55:13
don't see the evidence that they're gonna be able to
1:55:15
do what it takes to make it succeed. And
1:55:18
right now, the way it looks right now
1:55:20
today, I
1:55:22
would be surprised if they ever launched another
1:55:24
Vision Pro product. Oh, I
1:55:26
don't know about that. Now, hopefully that's wrong,
1:55:29
but that's just how it looks now two months
1:55:31
in. Again, this is still early days, but
1:55:34
where are the signs that they are investing
1:55:36
in what it will take to make this
1:55:38
succeed? Right now, I don't see those signs.
1:55:41
That's my concern, is that it seems like
1:55:44
even Apple is having trouble justifying making software
1:55:46
or content for this. And if they can't
1:55:48
even figure out the reason, then we sure
1:55:51
can't. So everything that I've said that I
1:55:53
wanted me, before this came out, I was
1:55:55
very excited about it. Everything I've said that
1:55:57
I want to do with it, possible
1:56:00
applications for it that I think I will
1:56:02
have, that all
1:56:04
depends on software and content coming
1:56:07
out for it. That
1:56:09
can't happen yet because it makes no
1:56:11
sense to get there until Apple really
1:56:13
pushes and seeds the ecosystem themselves. So
1:56:16
everything I hope this device could do, I
1:56:19
still hope it can do it, but today
1:56:21
it can't. Maybe someday
1:56:23
it will. We just have
1:56:25
to see what Apple will do to
1:56:27
invest in it and right now we're
1:56:29
not seeing nearly enough of that. So
1:56:32
hopefully I'm wrong or hopefully it will turn around and
1:56:34
we'll be looking back on this in a year and laughing.
1:56:37
As of today right now, I think this
1:56:39
product is a massive failure. So I
1:56:42
really hope that it has turned around soon. I've
1:56:45
always been on the three year mindset for this product because
1:56:47
I didn't think like everyone's like, oh next year it will
1:56:49
be even better. I'm like no, next year. I think even
1:56:51
since I showed back when I came out, next year it
1:56:53
won't be that different. And in two years it probably won't
1:56:55
be that different. So I'm on the three year after launch
1:56:58
timeline of things. Three years after those goes by, at that
1:57:00
point there should be a new version of this hardware and
1:57:03
the ecosystem should have moved a little bit. And
1:57:05
that's a good check-in point. It doesn't mean that
1:57:08
if three years they haven't done X it's doomed
1:57:10
or something, right? But in three years, assuming the
1:57:12
product still exists and hasn't gone big home potted
1:57:14
into the mystery closet before it pops out
1:57:16
again, that'll be a good time to look at
1:57:19
progress. Because I think it's unfair to look at
1:57:21
this after one year. I think it's unfair to
1:57:23
look at it after two years because
1:57:25
it is an unproven product and an unproven market
1:57:27
because Apple is not doing what all the other
1:57:29
headsets makers did and tried to make a video
1:57:31
game thing. They're not doing that. They're doing a
1:57:33
new thing, right? A mass market device
1:57:36
that you can use for productivity and addition. They're
1:57:38
taking a different approach. So I'm going to give
1:57:40
them three years to figure out what the heck
1:57:42
this is and to field new products and to
1:57:44
update the OS. So we'll check in again. And
1:57:46
I guess three years from launch, I guess I'll check in with a
1:57:48
note of my calendar or something. What would that be? 2026? 2027-ish? Yeah.
1:57:54
I mean, but the problem is like, yeah,
1:57:56
sure. Three years before it matures maybe,
1:57:59
but... Not mature. It's
1:58:01
three years before we figure
1:58:03
out if it's going to work at all. But
1:58:06
I think the big challenge is between
1:58:08
now and three years from now, what will make
1:58:10
people buy it? Yeah, I'm
1:58:13
assuming Apple is going to continue to spend money
1:58:15
on this for the next three years, if only
1:58:17
out of sheer bloody-mindedness, as they say across the
1:58:19
pond. Because Tim Cook is all in on this
1:58:21
thing. This is the thing he shipped and not
1:58:23
the car. I think despite
1:58:25
the pace of investment being unsatisfactory
1:58:28
trust on the outside, I believe
1:58:30
there are at least three years
1:58:32
of continued real investment in this
1:58:34
product line from Apple. So
1:58:36
that's why I'm putting the three-year timeline on it. If that isn't
1:58:38
true and they may stop funding it, well, no, because there will
1:58:40
never be another one. But I think there's three
1:58:42
years of money backed up behind this
1:58:44
sucker, if all goes to plan. I
1:58:46
hope you're right. Because I think alternative
1:58:49
timeline here, I think in
1:58:51
two months we start talking about iOS 18 and we
1:58:53
never come back to this. We
1:58:55
may not come back to it, but I think there's people at
1:58:57
Apple who are doing stuff and I think there's money
1:58:59
being put towards it. We'll find out. Again, this is
1:59:01
about internal benchmarks. If there was some benchmark that said we
1:59:03
have to sell this number of these things, this amount of
1:59:05
time or others, we're canceling a project, if that happened, Apple's
1:59:07
not going to tell us immediately. But
1:59:09
companies, there are consequences. We're going to put
1:59:12
this out, here's what we predict is going
1:59:14
to happen, and if it catastrophically doesn't, we're
1:59:16
going to have to have a serious meeting
1:59:18
about the future of this product line. But
1:59:20
you're never going to know about that. For
1:59:23
all we know, that's what happened with the HomePods. We were talking
1:59:25
about people buying HomePods two years after launch and they were getting
1:59:27
a model that was manufactured two years ago. That
1:59:30
is a product that disappeared, but it came back, sort
1:59:33
of. So who knows? We'll see.
1:59:36
I mean, there is one thing though that is, I think,
1:59:38
a red flag in
1:59:41
that, did you see the other day that Woot
1:59:43
had the Vision Pro on sale? Oh,
1:59:45
yeah. That's not good. We
1:59:48
were speculating for the last six months.
1:59:50
We were saying, the Vision
1:59:52
Pro is going to be backordered throughout this entire
1:59:54
year. It's going to be supply constrained. They're going
1:59:56
to be selling every single one they can make.
2:00:00
That doesn't seem to be happening and
2:00:02
that doesn't seem to have been happening
2:00:04
since launch day like we were saying
2:00:06
there's really not a lot of lines
2:00:08
there's it's really surprisingly easy to get
2:00:10
them. It seems like
2:00:12
they're not selling to what they
2:00:14
expected and they already have discounted
2:00:17
and gotten rid of a bunch of them
2:00:19
through. That's not
2:00:21
good so i am concerned
2:00:23
i really am concerned for this product
2:00:25
if i had to guess. It
2:00:28
seems like it's selling well below expectations and
2:00:30
apple is not investing in it and that's scary
2:00:32
for two months out. You might have
2:00:34
a collector's item. I don't want
2:00:37
that. I wanted to succeed. No really what's going
2:00:39
to happen is John you're going to have a
2:00:41
collector's item because Marco is going to ship it
2:00:43
to you as packing chips or packing peanuts in
2:00:45
a few years. I never bought a
2:00:47
g4 cube either but I did review on. Oh
2:00:50
my god. I want them to get
2:00:52
to version two so I can maybe have a chance
2:00:54
of it being sharp for my own. Three years Marco three
2:00:56
years. Oh god. All
2:00:59
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2:02:12
A S E Y L I
2:02:15
S S S S K C LIS M
2:02:17
A R C O A R
2:02:19
M E N T Marko Armand S I
2:02:21
R A C S
2:02:25
I R A C S
2:02:28
I R A C E
2:02:32
E E E E S
2:02:35
I R A C S
2:02:38
I R A C People
2:02:41
just heard a new song. Ah,
2:02:44
yeah, yeah. So we had asked
2:02:46
and been asked, well, we've been asked many,
2:02:48
many, many times to have
2:02:51
our friend Jonathan Mann do something with the theme song.
2:02:54
That mentions Twitter. Because the three of
2:02:56
us haven't used Twitter in how long?
2:02:58
Yeah, yeah. It's not that
2:03:00
it was not from like a desire, but
2:03:03
first of all, we didn't really want to put a lot
2:03:05
of stuff on Jonathan's plate. And
2:03:08
we love the original so darn much
2:03:10
that we really didn't want to screw
2:03:12
with it too badly. But Jonathan reached
2:03:14
out to us, I guess, a week or two ago
2:03:16
and said, hey, I'm going to take another stab at
2:03:18
it and and do see what I can
2:03:20
do to make it sound a little different. And
2:03:23
so, yeah, that's what you just heard unless you are
2:03:25
listening to the bootleg, in which case I'm not sure
2:03:27
what you're going to do. But you're going to have
2:03:29
to listen. Just go download the regular version and go
2:03:31
to the chapter of the theme song. Yeah, there you go.
2:03:34
Yeah. And literally the only change
2:03:36
is we've changed the line about Twitter and I
2:03:38
refer to Mastodon. That's it. Everything
2:03:41
else is the same. Yeah. Jonathan did a
2:03:43
more a more different version. But
2:03:46
it turns out it's very difficult to or
2:03:48
at least difficult for us or for Marco
2:03:50
to blend vocals recorded a decade later with
2:03:53
vocals recorded a decade earlier. I
2:03:55
like your voice sounds different. You know what I mean?
2:03:57
And so to try to get them to be to
2:03:59
go together. seamlessly. It turned out
2:04:01
to be beyond our capabilities so we
2:04:03
did the surgical strike. And I have to say that when we
2:04:05
talked about this before, I've saved a little link in my notes
2:04:08
document that I send to people whenever they ask about the theme
2:04:10
song. We did talk about it ages
2:04:12
ago and one of the beautiful things about the original
2:04:14
theme song is that well,
2:04:16
A, it's kind of like a nostalgic historical
2:04:19
record and B, specifically the part about Twitter,
2:04:22
it had one out from the beginning which is
2:04:24
that if you're into Twitter, it's conditional. So the
2:04:26
conditional becomes false. We all became
2:04:28
not into Twitter but whatever. And
2:04:30
B, after we had
2:04:33
talked about that, the
2:04:36
guy renamed Twitter, right? So it's like
2:04:38
not only does this have a conditional
2:04:40
statement, it's a conditional statement about a thing that essentially
2:04:42
doesn't exist but still does because you can't figure out
2:04:45
how to change the domain name because he's an idiot.
2:04:47
Anyway, so
2:04:49
I was perfectly fine having the historical theme
2:04:51
song be there forever and ever and ever.
2:04:55
But now that we have a modified version,
2:04:57
you'll see it's slightly modified. There are a
2:04:59
few other modifications that I think would be
2:05:01
useful but incorporating them is difficult. So we
2:05:03
still have the ability to modify
2:05:05
it elsewhere. So to give an
2:05:07
example, the little verse with
2:05:09
John didn't do any research. Marco and Casey wouldn't let
2:05:11
him as dated from back when they were convincing me
2:05:13
to do a tech podcast with them and I was
2:05:16
afraid I was going to burn out because I was
2:05:18
doing too many things at once. Obviously, that
2:05:20
is not the case anymore. I don't even have my
2:05:22
job a job anymore. But that thing is
2:05:24
still in there and the out on that one, it's all
2:05:26
past tense. Wouldn't let him in the
2:05:28
past didn't do any research. I
2:05:31
love that you're lawyering our theme. I know. I'm just
2:05:33
saying like, and I have a
2:05:35
modification that makes it even more clear that it was in
2:05:37
the past but it still kind of works. But anyway, we
2:05:40
love the theme song. We hope you love the theme song. We hope
2:05:42
you love the new theme song. And if we have to change it
2:05:44
again in 10 years, I guess eventually we will. Yeah,
2:05:46
extra, extra thanks to Jonathan
2:05:48
Mann for first of all
2:05:50
working with John. But also
2:05:53
for doing this in the first place
2:05:55
10 years ago or whenever that was
2:05:57
and also doing it again now. We
2:06:00
are very thankful. Check out his work, jonathanman.net.
2:06:02
We love his stuff. And
2:06:05
I love the song for us, and we've used
2:06:07
it all this time. I
2:06:10
think it fits the show very well, and I know a lot of our listeners
2:06:12
love it. So, yeah, thank you
2:06:14
very much to Jonathan for that, again. For
2:06:16
many of our listeners, the theme song is the only
2:06:19
thing they like about the show. And I'm speaking of
2:06:22
people's children and spouses that are forced to hear
2:06:24
a tech podcast in a car ride, and they
2:06:26
hate every second of it, but they like the
2:06:28
theme song. Or at least it sticks in
2:06:30
their head. Yeah. Golly,
2:06:34
Jonathan's been writing a song
2:06:36
a day for 15 years,
2:06:38
since January 1 of 2009.
2:06:42
Gracious. That is a long time. A lot of songs.
2:06:46
The funny thing, too, is like, so he,
2:06:48
years ago, like if
2:06:50
you notice that the ATP ad bumper
2:06:54
music bits are actually parts of the
2:06:56
theme song. That's because years ago, when
2:06:58
we first started doing basically
2:07:01
audio bumpers into ads, I tried a
2:07:03
few different sound effects, and
2:07:06
John hated them all, and they
2:07:08
were all kind of awkward, and
2:07:10
JonathanMan emailed me. He's like, hey,
2:07:12
here's the original logic tracks
2:07:14
to the theme song. If
2:07:16
you want, you can use this to
2:07:18
formulate some kind of ad bumper music.
2:07:21
So I did, and that's how we got our music theme
2:07:23
ad bumper, and it was great. So
2:07:26
with this, it was great. He literally just
2:07:28
recorded a new song, new vocal
2:07:30
tracks, and he just gave me all the tracks
2:07:32
again, and we were able to just drop in
2:07:34
the vocals, and I was able to make some
2:07:36
adjustments to make it match, and it was great.
2:07:39
But I also wanted to point out, because
2:07:41
I have all the original tracks to
2:07:44
it, I as a non-musician
2:07:46
had no idea how
2:07:49
many tracks are in a song
2:07:51
like that. Because first of all,
2:07:54
Jonathan is the only singer, but
2:07:57
if you listen to the song, there's backing
2:07:59
vocals. There's also not just
2:08:01
one backing singer. The backing vocals,
2:08:03
there's like six different
2:08:05
backing vocals that are all just
2:08:08
him overlaid doing like a six-part
2:08:10
harmony as backing
2:08:12
vocals behind the main vocals, and
2:08:14
then there's like 17 different
2:08:17
instrument tracks. So to write
2:08:19
a song every day, that's
2:08:22
like even just the writing part,
2:08:24
like the composition and the writing
2:08:26
the words, that's its
2:08:28
own challenge. But then to
2:08:31
actually record these like many
2:08:33
track compositions and recordings every
2:08:36
single day is no small
2:08:38
feat. There's so
2:08:40
many layers, there's different instruments, like
2:08:43
there's all these like seven
2:08:45
or eight different vocals. It's really
2:08:47
impressive. I don't know how he does
2:08:50
it, and the
2:08:52
more that I dove into this Logic file,
2:08:55
the more impressed I was. Well
2:08:57
at least you're using Logic for what it's actually designed for for once. Yeah.
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