0:09

Welcome to another episode of age of information.

0:12

My guest today is mark Walbert.

0:14

Also known as yellow bowl 11 on Twitter.

0:16

Mark is an analyst in the uranium space and

0:19

hosts a biweekly uranium

0:21

newsletter called the contrarian codex. I will

0:23

link both of these his Twitter profile as well as

0:25

the contrarion codex in the show notes. So

0:28

mark, welcome to the. Thank you very much

0:30

for having me looking forward to discussing uranium

0:32

manipulators today. Great. So, you

0:34

know I think a great place to start this is to get

0:36

your approach to investing.

0:39

I think there's a lot of information asymmetry

0:42

in uranium. And so what that means is you

0:44

know, information isn't widely distributed or efficiently

0:46

distributed. And so I'm curious to know,

0:48

you know, how do you approach researching companies

0:51

in uranium? How do you find your edge? I

0:53

would say that it's very important to

0:56

really really make sure that you get the

0:58

right company because that's, that speaks for itself.

1:00

Right. But I think that's very underestimated,

1:02

especially as bull market matures. I think I tweeted

1:04

something along those lines today as well, that

1:07

the higher the price goes higher and the

1:09

secret upward trajectory gets,

1:11

the more companies will be entering this space. We're

1:14

at roughly 80. 85

1:16

companies. Right now we had 500

1:18

companies around 500 companies at the peak

1:20

of the last bull market. I think we may

1:22

reset number again because when

1:24

something is hot, everybody wants to participate.

1:27

So that's why due diligence is so important.

1:30

And we need to do due diligence, not only

1:32

to find the right opportunities, but also to build

1:34

a necessary confection because with

1:36

the amount of volatility we are seeing in the radio,

1:39

With 20, 30% swings,

1:42

every say every few bonds and 10%

1:44

swings almost every week. If

1:46

not every day, sometimes you

1:49

really need to have that confection in place. So

1:51

how do I go about picking the right companies while

1:54

I look at the three key things, first of

1:56

all, look for an experienced management team. I want a

1:58

management team that has. mine

2:02

into production or develop you or any mind, or

2:04

really explored and found uranium.

2:07

I don't want a management team that has developed

2:09

a gold deposit somewhere in south America.

2:12

And is now looking for uranium in the alphabet basins.

2:14

You want relevant experience. And

2:16

I also want them to of course, be aligned

2:18

with shareholders all the large,

2:20

or at least a significant part of the company.

2:23

So that if sh if shareholder

2:26

value is created, they benefit

2:28

from it. Just as much,

2:30

if not more than the shareholders

2:32

of the company. The second thing I'm looking

2:35

for is just the quality of the assets, because

2:37

a good management team gets you very far, but

2:39

a good asset. It's just necessary to get that

2:41

extra edge. And I think it's important

2:44

to look at things like cure section, but also

2:46

has this area or this district

2:49

historically been a good place to

2:51

mind. Or explore

2:53

for uranium fix like

2:55

the Athabaska basin, but also Namibia

2:58

are two very, very good places

3:00

to, for very good examples of that. And

3:02

the first one is, it sounds very

3:05

simple but simple, but they need to have a good

3:07

plan because you need to have a company

3:09

that has really focused. On.

3:12

All right, we got this asset. We're going to do this and

3:15

this and this with it. We're not going to Duluth

3:17

for the sake of having the ability

3:19

to buy a fancy suit or a better

3:21

car. No, we, what we are going to

3:23

raise capital to make sure

3:26

that the effort mentioned shareholder value

3:29

is brought to the table. So

3:31

those three things I think are very key and

3:33

how I would go about constructing the uranium

3:35

portfolio. But you could go for URL,

3:38

U R N N, ETF. Which

3:40

is good. It's a pure play ETF

3:42

and it's it's the main ETF I would personally go

3:45

for. But if you're not going for that,

3:47

I think that most investors will be best

3:49

served in trying to go for what I described

3:51

as a pyramid approach, where you

3:53

start with like the main building blocks

3:55

and bigger companies, those with the

3:58

best of the best developers, producers

4:00

companies like Samsung. Chemical,

4:03

this broad fiscal uranium trust next

4:05

year, and Dennis and mine's global pharma companies

4:07

like those to make up. The,

4:10

the, like the base of that

4:13

pyramid. And then you can start building to get

4:15

more toward more upside

4:17

potential, perhaps with more risky explorers.

4:19

But if those do not work out, you always

4:21

have that base. That is what I keep

4:23

telling people. And of course, everybody has

4:26

a different investment strategy. Everybody has different

4:28

risk tolerance, but I've noticed

4:30

that this is this.

4:32

If you construct your portfolio in this way, It

4:35

usually works out and you can deal

4:37

with better with volatility in that regard

4:40

as well. But of course everything's very personal

4:42

and everything. From what

4:45

equities, you pick all the

4:47

way to what exit strategy

4:49

you implement, everything has a personal

4:51

touch to it. So that's important to note. You

4:54

mentioned a jurisdiction. One

4:56

of the most interesting things and kind of funny to me is that

4:59

earlier on Canada and, and sort of the

5:01

Jewish of access, there was so great and everybody

5:03

was so bullish. And then that sentiment has sort of flipped

5:05

now where Africa is,

5:07

is far more bullish, but, you know, earlier it was like very

5:10

bearish. What do you make of that? What do you make

5:12

of the very quick flip-flopping

5:14

that we're seeing in terms of sentiment based

5:16

on Jewish. I get it

5:19

because what you are looking for right now,

5:21

especially because this uranium bull market is

5:23

likely going

5:25

to come and go faster than

5:28

what most people previously fought.

5:30

I personally, at a timeline last

5:32

year. For between two and four years,

5:34

I think we're entering the market.

5:37

And with the contract six cycle in the

5:39

tour market now slowly but surely

5:41

heating up, I think that his timeline

5:43

has shifted to one or two years. So you want

5:45

to have uranium projects? I

5:47

will. First of all, I would say Is there a sexual diversification

5:50

is good. You never want to be fully

5:52

allocated to a single country because something

5:54

can go wrong, no matter how great

5:56

the jurisdiction may be on paper or

5:59

in practice, because if we can always

6:01

happen. But the one thing I will say

6:03

is that what Africa has, especially

6:05

in countries like Namibia, but also Nisha

6:07

or global tonic and Goviex are located

6:10

and maybe aware of several

6:13

European companies located like. Elevates

6:16

uranium, like detail like

6:18

Bannerman and a bunch of others. What

6:20

they have as, as burn

6:22

advantage over countries like

6:24

Australia, the U S and

6:26

the Canada. Permits,

6:29

which are so important, exploring, developing,

6:32

and producing uranium because it's such

6:35

a well political

6:38

commodity, so to speak, you want those permits

6:40

in place. And in Africa, the permanent

6:42

process just goes fast and we've seen that

6:44

time. And again, and I think that

6:46

is one of the reasons why people are looking

6:48

to Africa. As one

6:52

of the better Uranian jurisdictions to pick

6:54

their companies and especially Namibia,

6:56

which is politically stable, which

6:59

is very friendly to minors and

7:01

which is also fast. And it's permitting

7:03

process for most

7:05

companies. It's definitely

7:07

something to look out for. And yeah,

7:10

I think that that jurisdictional diversification

7:12

very, very much includes Africa. Sure.

7:15

Let me touch on China really quickly. I think

7:17

I actually posted a thread on Reddit, which you

7:20

yourself saw and got a lot of community

7:22

feedback on, you know, what's top of mind for

7:24

some investors. And one of the common themes

7:26

is. where do we stand on China?

7:28

Because like I said earlier, the information asymmetry,

7:30

especially from China, it's just so asymmetric.

7:32

Do we know if the information is actually

7:34

correct? And how would you best suggest

7:37

that investors could get exposure

7:39

to the Chinese. All the

7:41

main thing about China is that they're off

7:43

course the biggest growth story in this space.

7:45

They are the demand driver

7:48

for the next 5, 10, 50 years,

7:50

especially after we've seen them

7:53

coming out and discussing the possibility

7:55

of adding 150 new reactors

7:57

to that grid by 2045

7:59

and investing $440 billion

8:02

in process. That is a major, major

8:04

statements. And. Well,

8:06

they make it that far will knows, but

8:08

they have time. And again, show that they

8:10

want that energy security. They want

8:13

to make sure that they have enough

8:15

uranium in place to

8:17

have that energy security for us. Nuclear power plants.

8:19

The beautiful thing about uranium is you can store years

8:21

and years for supply. And that's

8:23

what they're secure right now. We've already seen

8:26

two. Chinese contracts for

8:28

uranium being signed with Casella prom. And

8:32

they are saying that more, that of

8:34

course, that's subject to disclosure

8:37

agreements. And we do not know the details of that,

8:39

but they have mentioned that more Chinese

8:41

utilities are in the market to secure

8:43

more uranium. And I think that we will continue

8:45

to see it up. And one thing

8:47

that isn't the case

8:50

that. That information

8:52

is cemetery, because a lot of information

8:54

is very clouded. You have to really

8:56

dig to get some of the details and even

8:59

then you will probably never get

9:01

the full story. So we have to go

9:03

with what we get. You can reach out

9:05

to perhaps CGN to get

9:07

more information. And that brings me

9:10

to what you discuss. If

9:12

you want to have exposure to the Chinese growth

9:14

story and to China really. Really securing

9:17

more uranium. I would say that

9:19

you need to take a close look at CJ. And

9:22

of course you have the political uncertainty

9:24

to a certain extent you have that

9:27

information is information or cemetery,

9:29

but I think CGN is what

9:31

can be, or it can be

9:33

one of those stops here built in blocks

9:35

for Euro preferable uranium

9:37

pyramid. So that will be

9:40

my way to get exposure to the. Perhaps

9:43

also exposure in Africa, because if

9:46

the, if the Chinese go to secure

9:49

future uranium production, productive

9:51

capacity, Africa

9:53

will be one of the first places they will

9:55

look besides the obvious subjects

9:57

like gas Exxon or

10:00

within their own borders or respect is

10:02

some countries like that. So

10:04

that is also one way to get exposure to China

10:07

and really trying to secure those necessary

10:09

pounds because those hundred 50 reactors

10:11

alone will be consuming,

10:14

not including from bloating, approximately

10:16

6 67 0.5 million

10:18

pounds a year, which. An incredible

10:20

amount. So shifting topics a little

10:22

bit, I did want to touch on seasonality.

10:24

You know, I think a good signal of whether

10:27

seasonality is occurring is whether there's contracting

10:29

happening in the space between the utilities. So

10:31

far that has not been happening. Right. And so that would

10:33

suggest that seasonality is really not occurring. What's

10:35

your take on why contracting is

10:37

not occurring? I would say that

10:39

some contracting is occurring, but

10:41

what is more important to see right now

10:44

is that at least if

10:46

not all marked and off-market. Conversations

10:49

are being had for those contracts. We've

10:52

seen RFPs, which stands for

10:54

request for proposal. We seen those

10:56

hit the market. We see utilities really testing

10:58

the waters, and we've seen utilities

11:00

noticing that, Hey uranium,

11:03

with, to handle you already even have three handle

11:05

may not be available anymore well

11:08

is not really available anymore

11:10

in most cases. So we're not looking at uranium

11:12

beforehand. That's where the discussion shifted.

11:14

And I think that will shift. Very

11:17

quickly too. You're going to move a five handle

11:19

and then you can go from there. Most

11:22

conventional equilibrium price

11:25

levels that are discussed are between 60,

11:27

$65, something around that

11:29

range. But. I

11:31

think we will go higher than that. And

11:34

I, we can get into that later. I think that

11:37

will fit very much under a topic

11:40

of things that may not be discussed

11:42

enough. But going

11:44

back to to what you mentioned about contracting.

11:46

Daniel major CEO of Gulf JAKKS

11:48

has gone out to mentioned that contracts

11:51

are being signed and contracts

11:53

are being signed, going out to

11:56

20 30, 20, 42,

11:58

which is a very, very long time with ceilings

12:00

for first two years, $55. And

12:03

for the years after that for $78,

12:05

and those are just early stage contracts,

12:08

I think that once this cycle really starts

12:10

heating up, you will see a real price discovery.

12:13

And you will see those contracts being sites. So

12:15

it all starts with off-market conversations.

12:18

The negotiations will take place, they

12:20

will speed up. And in the next one or two

12:22

years, in my opinion, we will

12:24

see that major contract cycle

12:26

happening. And that is where you get

12:29

most of the movement in the uranium market. Because

12:31

of course we're all very focused on the

12:33

spot price, especially now in

12:35

the market, but the Terremark.

12:39

Most like 70 to 80%

12:41

of all activity happens. That is

12:43

where to may focus. Sure,

12:45

sure. You know I actually saw a really interesting theory

12:47

posted on Twitter and they said that it

12:49

could be that contracting is not happening

12:52

because. Some of these bigger conferences

12:54

that typically occur this time of year are not

12:56

happening because of COVID. Do you think that

12:58

could really be a reason why that that contracting is

13:00

not happening with these conferences or getting. I

13:03

think it could play a part. I think it's all

13:05

speculation at this point, of course. So you can

13:07

never have one sure-fire explanation

13:09

for why something is or is not happening.

13:12

But I would say that COVID has definitely not

13:14

helped in really creating

13:16

opportunities to meet, to discuss contracts,

13:19

either on board meetings or

13:21

either. On these big conferences.

13:24

So yeah, I think, I think

13:27

it might've played a part it's of course it's all speculation,

13:29

but if we didn't have COVID, perhaps

13:32

it might have sped up that that

13:34

part of the cycle a bit, but, but we'll have to see.

13:37

Sure, sure. I also wanted to get to Europe, so

13:39

you're based out of Europe. I think you're based out of the Netherlands.

13:41

Is that correct? I actually just

13:43

recently learned about the EU taxonomy.

13:46

I'm not super familiar with it. Could you describe

13:48

what the EU taxonomy is and

13:50

sort of how that plays into the larger narrative

13:52

in Europe? For uranium? Well, without

13:55

really trying to describe everything and boring

13:57

your listeners to death, I'll

13:59

just do a very basic explanation. The

14:01

EU taxonomies, something that is discussed right

14:03

now, and it will.

14:06

From what I've concluded from my

14:08

own ratios, et cetera, will play a major part.

14:11

If nuclear is included in making nuclear

14:13

more economically viable. So

14:16

it's just a taxonomy that will make

14:18

sure that nuclear efforts

14:20

included can play on a level playing field

14:22

with things like solar and wind, which

14:24

are also included in this

14:27

sustainable taxonomy. So,

14:30

yeah, so it's will be, this

14:32

is being discussed right now and it will be.

14:34

I think a phone is due on the 22nd of

14:36

December and I've heard some

14:39

good noises being being shared that,

14:41

that nuclear may be included

14:44

in the taxonomy itself or may be included in a

14:46

different bill. But yeah, again,

14:48

we have to wait and see, but I think

14:50

this taxonomy will not only

14:53

help. Make nuclear you're

14:55

more viable, which is definitely necessary

14:57

because we are in the middle of an energy crisis

15:00

and with countries so dependent on natural gas

15:02

and coal, and with

15:04

those being in such high price right now.

15:08

Nuclear power as we've seen in France

15:10

can offer the solution out of this energy.

15:12

Well, maybe not out of this current energy crisis, but

15:15

hopefully it makes sure that we do not have an energy

15:17

crisis, the same severity in future.

15:20

So that will definitely help. But what I

15:22

also, the 200 fix

15:24

that I also think will really help

15:26

with. This is one, it will help public sentiment

15:29

and your political sentiment towards nuclear

15:31

power because people will see our

15:34

nuclear is being included

15:36

in this. Green sustainable

15:39

European taxonomy. That has

15:41

to mean that nuclear is a

15:43

good way to create green

15:45

based or power to meet zero

15:48

carbon goals by 20 50, 20,

15:50

60. So that's one thing

15:52

that's very key. And the other

15:54

thing that I absolutely think is key

15:56

is that if this is included, it will also

15:59

mark uranium and nuclear

16:01

S E S G and festival. We've already

16:03

seen some ESG funds invest

16:06

into the space, but once this

16:08

has, once this really gets

16:10

labeled as a green

16:12

sword, or it's a green way to invest,

16:16

it will open the door to a lot of capital.

16:18

I think. Currently there

16:20

are 17.1 around $17.1

16:22

trillion of capital of ESG

16:25

cap. In the United States

16:27

while it does not directly linked to

16:30

Europe, I'm very aware of that. It

16:32

does put into perspective the

16:34

amount of capital that could come

16:37

in, even if it's just some tiny, like

16:39

half a percentage point

16:41

of that capital going to nuclear and

16:43

or uranium. So that will also

16:45

make all the difference in a tiny market

16:47

that. I think that all the broad

16:49

equities that are publicly traded

16:52

right now are trading at approximately 36

16:54

30 $7 billion,

16:56

which is absolutely driving

16:58

that's around the same model gap as dovish point, which

17:00

is ridiculous. It's funny. So, you know, you actually

17:03

just mentioned the public sentiment in Europe, towards

17:05

uranium. I want to hear more about that. How, you know, how do people

17:08

you know, around you, whether the Netherlands or Europe

17:10

more broadly feel about uranium, are they talking about

17:12

it? Is it in the sort of the mainstream current. It's

17:15

getting better. It's getting a little better. I've seen a lot.

17:17

I've seen a few polls, both in the Netherlands in

17:20

Belgium that really asked

17:22

to ask the population of the

17:24

country, or at least in part, because you can

17:26

hardly ask an entire police to fill in an

17:29

online poll, but you've

17:31

seen that either. They are for.

17:34

The keeping nuclear power

17:36

is for the energy mix, because both Netherlands,

17:39

as well as Belgium use nuclear power, the Netherlands

17:41

only for small part, but we still have a nuclear

17:43

power plant or they're willing,

17:46

or they are open to the idea.

17:49

Really expanding the nuclear power

17:52

as a percentage of the grid structure.

17:55

So yeah, no, I think we've definitely, I've

17:58

personally seen the sentiment around

18:00

nuclear power, really improving, and

18:02

I think that's something we've seen all around

18:04

Europe. I've even seen protests

18:07

in brussel and Berlin in

18:09

favor of nuclear power and only they're against.

18:11

So that's one thing that's also very, very

18:13

good to see. So, yeah, no, I

18:16

think public sentiment is improving because

18:18

people see the way that society is shifting and

18:20

people are starting to slowly,

18:22

but surely to become aware that nuclear

18:25

power is and will be

18:27

part of the solution. Great. Great.

18:29

So, you know, I'm thinking now I can sort of switch over

18:31

to some of these questions from Reddit. And so just

18:33

for context for the listener, I ended up after

18:36

my last episode of Justin posting on

18:38

a subreddit called uranium squeeze.

18:41

And getting some questions from the community.

18:43

And I think some of these are really interesting. One

18:45

question is what is the power

18:48

of I always pronounce this incorrectly cause cause I prom

18:50

in the world or any market. Okay.

18:53

So the problem is the biggest player. They are responsible

18:56

for 23% of global uranium production.

18:59

And Kazakhstan itself has 12%

19:02

of the entire global uranium reserve.

19:04

I've been the only country that beats their uranium

19:06

serve is Australia. And they have nowhere

19:09

near the same focus on

19:11

uranium mining as, as gas

19:13

Exxon house. So it's safe

19:15

to say that they are a huge, huge player and

19:17

they will continue to be a huge, huge player.

19:20

And for the rest of this decade, the

19:22

one key focus that I that

19:24

I think should be mentioned. I

19:27

said, people are always worried because yes, Casa

19:29

has this massive power. So why

19:31

don't they just flood the market? Well, in

19:33

recent years, ever since they publicly

19:36

floated the part of their company, they've really

19:38

been focused on. Quality

19:40

of quantity. So they have been

19:42

produced for the past few years, if we're producing 27

19:45

and 20% below there. So user agreements

19:47

for maximum output and

19:49

data really helped stabilize this

19:51

market and really bring it from

19:53

a supply from an

19:55

office supply markets to a marketing

19:58

deficit. And they have

20:00

publicly said, Taiwan again, there have been. Pounding

20:03

the proverbial table, even just

20:05

a few weeks ago that no, they're not looking

20:08

to, to fro the spine on the

20:10

window note are not looking to expand the production

20:13

and they will keep to their production costs

20:16

for next year and 2023. What

20:18

happens for 20, 24 and after who

20:20

knows, but it's already great to see that they're

20:22

committing to. K

20:25

production 20% below those aforementioned

20:28

subsoil use agreements. And

20:30

it's really helped us market. But

20:33

after that, when

20:35

you look at, at the end of this decade, what

20:37

we've seen as we've seen Casella prom also

20:41

also spend less

20:44

than they might've wanted to. I don't

20:46

know what their targets were over

20:48

the past decade on the development of new uranium

20:51

projects. They also need. To

20:53

get more capital in so they can use

20:55

that on cap X spending on new projects

20:57

or exploration development and bringing

21:00

into production those new projects

21:03

because after 20 28, 20

21:05

29, you see production

21:07

from foam roll off a cliff. And

21:10

they've publicly stated that

21:12

after 2028, Around

21:14

the end of this decade, we're going to need one

21:16

Navy, two more, seven prompts. So

21:20

yeah, they hold a lot of power in

21:22

the uranium sector, but they too

21:24

are looking far ahead to make sure that they

21:27

can keep that massive

21:29

uranium production going and

21:31

they want to replace their sources. And they've mentioned

21:33

that those new

21:35

assets, those new productive capacity

21:38

may not be as good as the ones

21:40

that they started out with, because that makes

21:42

sense. And yeah, that's

21:44

definitely something to look out for. And

21:47

I want to mention one thing, and it's

21:49

said they, as the biggest Jurnee

21:52

mine in the world, they see the way that the wind is blowing

21:54

and they see that there that

21:57

the amount of uranium. May

21:59

not be able to meet the amount of demand

22:01

because that keeps on growing with new reactors

22:04

being saved and new reactors being constructed

22:06

are poised to be constructed. And

22:09

in one of the last presentation, they actually put

22:11

a quote that I use quite often

22:14

because it encapsulates everything we're talking

22:16

about social wealth, so that there may

22:18

not be enough guaranteed supply for everyone.

22:21

And I think that's something that will ring very true

22:23

in the next year. Sure.

22:25

So another question posted here is how

22:27

often do you Rainium ETFs

22:30

change the mining companies held in their portfolio

22:32

and based on what criteria,

22:34

maybe we can talk about a specific ETF or whatever,

22:37

whichever one you're familiar with. Well, we

22:39

can talk about the two biggest one. You have

22:41

three uranium NCS or now U

22:43

S H U R a U F

22:45

U R N M U R a. Well,

22:47

let's touch upon the two biggest one. You are a URM,

22:50

you are a Brighton. How, as a, I think they have asked

22:52

some management of approximately $1.3

22:54

billion, so pretty significant,

22:57

and also has a lot of effects on

23:00

this uranium bull market. And

23:03

what there they will.

23:05

I think they will be. Rebalancing

23:08

their index in January.

23:10

Yeah. January for URA and March

23:13

for around mid-March for your and

23:15

M and what you, what

23:17

a company needs for to be

23:19

included in URA is a total

23:21

free flow market capitalization of 50

23:23

million us dollars. And

23:26

that is not on the day that

23:28

they select which companies get into the. Or

23:31

at least for the million, for companies that

23:33

are already part of the index for URM,

23:36

that is a little bit less. That is a freeform

23:38

market capitalization of $40 million

23:41

at a minimum market cap for at 60

23:43

index holdings of 25 million.

23:45

So. I've seen

23:48

a lot of people discussing I've been discussing it myself

23:50

as well when discussing companies

23:52

that are not in those ETFs

23:54

yet, but to now because

23:57

of the recent run-up and if they can hold that market

23:59

capitalization qualify to

24:01

be included in those ETS. And if they are included,

24:04

that will cause a lot of indiscriminate

24:06

buying off the underlying sheriffs,

24:08

that company to make sure if they are

24:11

included into the ETFs. So,

24:13

yeah, that's definitely something to look forward to. I

24:16

do not plan to trade around this. I

24:18

do not recommend trading around this because

24:20

it can get very volatile and

24:23

there was never like a perfect formula

24:25

for this. But if you have a

24:27

really good company that now

24:29

fits the criteria, it's not part of the ETS yet.

24:31

It can really put extra fuel on

24:33

the proverbial fire. So yeah,

24:35

those Those are definitely things to look out for.

24:37

And I think that the ETFs are

24:40

going to play a major, major role

24:42

in in taking capital and buying

24:44

those underlying equity. Got

24:47

it. I almost feel like I need to say that none of

24:49

this is investment advice, but absolutely

24:52

this is for informational and entertainment

24:54

purposes only. Okay. So moving on how

24:56

do you see the interest rate yields

24:58

spiking, and how has that, how do you

25:00

think that's gonna affect a uranium stock? So the

25:02

uranium. Yeah, that's definitely,

25:04

that's, that's a pretty hard topic to cover because

25:06

that's very like broad macro oriented

25:09

orientated. I think that I'm personally

25:11

a, for that with yields can't really

25:13

spike that much before the debt becomes

25:15

literally unpayable. But even

25:18

if you'll spike in the short term, I

25:20

think that. It will cause

25:22

a sell off in the markets and that this federal

25:24

step in once more to

25:27

put like a floor in the markets to make sure that

25:30

it stays, like it says up

25:32

and that the mantra of stocks only go

25:34

up, it rings through, which is it's

25:37

something that can hold through forever, but they've

25:39

certainly been trying to do a good job

25:41

to make sure it holds that way for

25:43

the past, the past year and a half. But

25:46

what I think is that in that environment,

25:50

You are really looking at if the

25:52

broad markets also

25:55

crashes or corrects that

25:57

uranium equities, because they're so

25:59

small, they're so illiquid, they get dumped

26:02

right along with it. And we've seen

26:04

it in the past few weeks. We have seen

26:06

energy performing relatively weakly,

26:08

and we've seen uranium, especially

26:10

without spot buying. I

26:12

really like trade together with energy

26:15

and they have, they've sold off massively

26:17

between 30 and 50% or sometimes

26:20

more. And that is what happens to the smaller liquid

26:22

market. And that's where you also get lots

26:24

and lots of volatility. So I think

26:27

that looking at. Market headwinds.

26:29

And I figured that those broad sort

26:31

of macro headwinds, and I think those are clear.

26:33

And I think that in the next month,

26:35

and in January, we are looking at risk

26:38

or assumption of that, of course, projectory in

26:40

uranium, equities, especially as

26:42

energy also picks up again to get with oil,

26:45

for example. So. Yeah,

26:48

no, I think that problem markets headwinds

26:51

and macro news are definitely

26:53

something to watch and they should not be

26:56

dispensed because they have a big influence

26:58

on this market, as well as all the

27:00

uranium and nuclear specific news

27:02

that we're seeing. Got it.

27:04

Got it. I asked this sort of question to Justin,

27:07

but I also want to ask you this. Cause I feel like you have a different

27:09

point of view coming from Europe and also just being younger

27:11

obviously the retail traders and Robin

27:13

hood and retail traders on Weebo and some

27:15

of these other applications have some sort

27:17

of impact. How significant of an impact

27:20

do you think they have right now? And as maybe

27:22

the culture starts sort of seeping into

27:24

uranium and uranium sort of seeping into the culture how much

27:26

impact do you think they'll have? I think

27:28

they will have a pretty big impact because I

27:30

think that if you're already in being a cyclical

27:33

industry, I think that this cyclical

27:35

industry. There

27:38

this bull market will go the way of

27:40

previous bull marks. And we've seen with

27:42

a big blow of top top. And

27:44

after that big drop, because what

27:46

happens is price move on

27:48

justifies the narrative is as simple as that

27:51

combined that mantra with.

27:53

The fact that you want nature doesn't change and

27:55

you have a recipe that especially now

27:58

with so much easy money floating

28:00

around so many people, so

28:02

many people are investing. And so many people have

28:05

easy access from the click of a button.

28:07

They can buy a thousand shares in

28:10

any given uranium company, for example,

28:13

to just and that is way easier than it

28:15

was in previous bull markets. So I think

28:17

they will have a big influence. And I think that. Once

28:21

things start rolling really, really hard. And once

28:23

you really starts being the talk of the town,

28:25

just like Bitcoin was

28:28

in 27, Africa was 2017 and 2018

28:31

when they when it first stopped out or

28:33

cannabis stocks or uranium in the last

28:35

bull market. Yeah,

28:38

those are the moments that a lot of retail

28:40

capital will come in and that's what causes

28:42

these blow up top. So yeah, I think there will

28:44

have a massive impact. And sadly,

28:46

I think cyclicality will

28:49

not take any personal response

28:51

cycle turns. So when people

28:53

are thinking of exit strategies,

28:55

I would highlight. Recommend

28:59

scaling out in tranches, do not

29:01

try to time. It's up to not try

29:04

to hold on to everything until

29:07

you see some ridiculous number. You need to have

29:09

a personalized exercise, energy

29:12

that really folks on a few,

29:14

maybe it's four, maybe it's 10. Doesn't

29:16

really matter. It needs to fit you as

29:18

an investor, but don't do it all

29:20

at once because deadly,

29:23

she prone to either leaving a lot of

29:25

money on the table or. Even

29:27

worse, Alicia

29:29

pro riding this cycle back down

29:31

because the other side of the short will be just

29:33

as steep as the way. Sure.

29:36

That's great advice. That's great advice. Yeah I

29:38

think that's, one of the more important things that I also

29:40

want to think about is and also focus on is, you

29:42

know, what's the downside, like when are we going to see the

29:44

downside? How are we going to prepare for it is going to be stop-loss

29:46

orders. Maybe we head we're hedging a little bit. I

29:49

think that's something that will also enter the conversation

29:51

further down the line. So to wrap up this interview

29:53

here with a few questions, so I have one

29:55

sort of medic question for my own personal curiosity.

29:58

What is, I think, a very successful newsletter and

30:01

P paid newsletter. So I'm curious to know, you know, what

30:03

is the most important lesson you've learned in

30:06

writing this newsletter? That's a great question.

30:08

I think the one thing that I've learned is that you really

30:11

need to make sure that things are. Easily

30:13

understandable. And that may sound very

30:15

easy to say, but it's very hard

30:18

to put it put into action because

30:20

this market can be so opaque. And

30:22

I have a lot of when I read something or

30:25

when I do research, there is a lot

30:27

of thoughts that go through my head that I want to put on

30:29

paper, but I know that most people

30:31

that. That just wants to get to

30:33

the point. Most people just want to get to the point now.

30:35

All right. How does this affect my investment? What

30:38

do we do with it? Is there any action I should take?

30:40

And I think the one thing I've learned is to

30:42

really try to put very complex

30:44

information into a very easy

30:46

to understand and easy to digest

30:49

package. And yeah.

30:51

And what I've also learned is that it's great

30:53

to have a group of like-minded individuals

30:56

to share this bull market with,

30:58

because with the triune codex, I

31:00

have a discord server that

31:03

NA that has a few hundred people

31:05

that have now joined. And it's, it's amazing to see.

31:07

I'm very, very grateful for it. I just want to

31:09

say that first and foremost, what I've seen

31:11

is it's great because. I will give you

31:13

one example. I personally do not use

31:15

any options. It's just, it's just my

31:17

way of investing and I completely respected

31:20

some people. Definitely do you

31:22

use option because they can have

31:24

great potential. If people

31:26

ask questions like that in this court server, we have

31:28

a bunch of people that use ops. They

31:31

have advice and they have different few points,

31:34

and it's also great to get to really get a feel

31:36

for things like public sentiment. People

31:39

are talking like somebody just makes, like, I've been talking

31:41

to a few friends of mine. They sell fig FSA

31:43

into uranium is ridiculous guys. We're still

31:45

early, things like that. So it's

31:48

great to have that community in place.

31:50

And yeah, no, again, I'm very grateful.

31:52

I've been doing this full-time for a little over

31:55

a month now. Honestly, couldn't be happier.

31:57

Keep working and keep improving

32:00

the contents. Great, great. You

32:02

know, I, I read my own newsletter and my thing has

32:04

been like, you know, how do I work? Am I providing value?

32:06

Am I even providing value for my readers? So that's always

32:09

where my question in the back of my head. So this is, this is great. Communicating

32:11

with them, keep communicating. Sure. It's fair.

32:14

So I like to end these interviews by asking this

32:17

question, which is, what's a topic in this field

32:19

that you feel isn't discussed enough or

32:21

is discussed incorrectly or

32:23

hasn't gotten enough. I

32:26

think the one thing that I've already touched

32:28

upon in the bed early in this interview, I

32:30

think the one thing that really need

32:32

to realize is that yes,

32:34

there was all of Sholem production and

32:36

yes, some companies have that show

32:39

or hold a show in production. It could bring it back online,

32:41

a company like Palo, then we'll have Langer Heinrich

32:44

company like boss we'll have the honeymoon projects,

32:47

a company like Lotus as well. They

32:49

have production capacity that That

32:51

can provide those pounds of uranium

32:53

going forward. But with inflation

32:56

now, running rampant and with supply bottlenecks

32:58

also in place the cost

33:01

to bring the mind back online is significantly

33:03

higher. The timelines bring this blow

33:05

because we're, we've only been talking about material

33:07

and inflation, but also just

33:10

human capital. Just literally

33:12

finding the right people for the deal. Then once

33:14

you've come to a uranium, mine to bring it back online,

33:17

I think that. Timelines will be longer

33:19

than expected to bring these, to bring this

33:21

shedding capacity online. I think

33:23

costs will be higher than was first

33:26

anticipated. And I think

33:28

that will. Be part

33:30

of the reason why we will probably get

33:32

a delayed supply response as well

33:35

as go to a higher equilibrium

33:37

price level. And of course we, of

33:40

course, in my opinion, we will go

33:43

up and beyond that equilibrium price level.

33:45

But I think equally are being missed now close to

33:47

75 or $80 before

33:50

we see that balance because

33:52

of those higher costs because of those supply bottlenecks.

33:55

So yeah, I think that's something that really needs to be. So

33:58

sh sure. You're saying that maybe the supply bottlenecks

34:00

have not been priced in as of yet the

34:03

timeline. I do not think they've been pricing

34:05

yet. No, I think that is something that that we need

34:08

to see how it develops. Maybe the supply

34:10

bottlenecks are clear, maybe they're not, but

34:12

I think that 20, 22 will be

34:14

a year that gives a lot of clarity

34:16

where this bull markets could go and

34:18

also gets a lot of clarity of what we perhaps

34:21

can expect in terms of severity.

34:24

Sure. Okay. One other contrarian question for you.

34:26

What do you think is the strongest to bear case against

34:28

uranium or strong burgers

34:31

against uranium? But the most obvious one

34:33

is of course, a normal nuclear disaster with

34:35

modern power plants being so,

34:38

so safe with so many safety,

34:40

stringent safety procedures

34:43

implemented, and which is very necessary, which

34:45

is great. Apart from that, I think that

34:48

China potentially put

34:50

it from cold wet blankets onto

34:52

the uranium bull market. Either with

34:55

them coming out to say that they might don't need

34:58

those nuclear build-out plans or

35:00

just scaling those plans

35:02

back entirely or

35:05

releasing some of that strategic reserve to

35:07

try and quell the price a bit. I

35:09

think that is very unlikely.

35:12

And I think that is a long ways out,

35:14

but it's something that, that has

35:16

to be kept the two account. I also

35:19

think that. There are other ways that

35:21

either governments or utilities

35:23

could, could use to

35:26

try to cap the price of it. I don't

35:28

think they will. They will

35:30

do anything that could stop the price, going

35:32

to the equilibrium price level that I think. I

35:35

discuss, but it will

35:37

perhaps cap the peak price and we will

35:39

see. So, and

35:41

in the final bear case, I think

35:43

that is also a bit longer term,

35:45

but you can never fully discount it for the next

35:47

one or two years. It's some disruptive

35:50

technology really. Entering

35:52

this phase and really making extracting uranium

35:54

easier. We've seen seawater extraction

35:56

being discussed as one of those things, but

35:59

see what our extraction is not only not

36:01

economically viable at around $200

36:04

per pound of uranium, it's also

36:06

not scalable on

36:08

a full on industrial level right now because

36:10

it's still very much in the early stage of adaptation.

36:13

So, yeah, even though we have 40 trillion,

36:15

tons of uranium on earth and

36:17

a million of that is recoverable

36:21

only a very small percentage of that

36:23

without those new technologies is recoverable

36:25

for low triple digits, uranium. So

36:28

yeah, I think that there are definitely barricades

36:31

and you should never discount.

36:33

Those will be the first one to tell you that. And

36:36

definitely there'll be the last one to tell you that. But

36:39

I think that the should really take us

36:41

into account, but right now the

36:43

bull case for uranium has,

36:46

in my honest opinion, never looks stronger

36:48

and it only is only

36:50

getting stronger in the months

36:52

ahead. And I think I think that will be the prevailing

36:55

trends for this. Mark.

36:57

Thank you so much for joining us on the age of information.

36:59

This has been wonderful. I learned a lot. I hope the

37:01

listeners got some more context for the really experienced

37:04

ones. And then if you're new to the space, you also learn something.

37:06

So thank you for joining us again. Thank you very much

37:08

for having it's an absolute pleasure.