0:02

Bankless Nation! Question for you

0:05

today on Bankless Takes. Is the bull market

0:07

over? David, I was scanning crypto Twitter, catching

0:10

up on the weekend, and it certainly seemed like it by

0:12

the sentiment. Everyone's bearish. Yeah, why

0:14

did crypto sentiment flip

0:17

bearish? It was like four things. It was

0:19

the ETH ETF will be nothing, was a

0:21

take. Gox, Mt. Gox is gonna dump on

0:23

you. There's no new

0:25

crypto use cases this cycle. It's

0:27

not like 2021. There's too much

0:30

token supply. No new retail. Yeah,

0:32

no new retail. Oh, and also Germany's

0:34

dumping on us. An entire

0:36

country. Yeah, what the heck? Come on, Germany,

0:38

get with it. So I guess the question

0:41

for today, is this just summertime slowness or

0:43

is the bull market over?

0:45

Did we hit all time

0:47

highs? Yeah, was that it? Was that it? I mean,

0:49

so the last bull market, 2021, I

0:51

think everyone said ended really abruptly and

0:54

kind of prematurely. So are

0:56

we getting that twice? Is that just what crypto

0:58

is? Maybe crypto is always

1:00

just like, we're destined to be sub $5 trillion

1:02

market gap. That's just what we are. I

1:04

think that's the topic for today, right? We

1:06

wanna gauge the sentiment. We wanna talk about

1:08

the bear case for a while. And then

1:10

maybe the other side

1:12

of that, maybe the bull case and what

1:15

we actually think towards the end of this.

1:17

David, as we're going to this episode, prices

1:19

were down actually significantly, like a fair amount,

1:21

but they kind of popped before this episode.

1:23

So no idea what prices will be

1:25

by the time you were listening. But like we got a

1:27

little bit of a, should we call

1:29

it a dead cap bounce? Can I

1:32

call it that? So Bitcoin dropped down below $60,000 to 59

1:34

and a half. We

1:37

are currently almost back up to $62,000. Ether

1:41

did something pretty similar. Ether's at 3,400.

1:44

We've seen these prices recently.

1:48

We've seen these prices, what was it? Like

1:50

before the ETF was approved, Ether got down

1:52

to 2,900. Its

1:54

bottom was 3,300. So

1:57

like we are at a higher or low. But

2:00

sentiment is at a lower low like

2:02

sentiment is just like, you know what?

2:04

I'm jumping. All

2:06

right, guys. So that's the episode today. We're going

2:09

to give you a, the diagnosis here on what's

2:11

going on in bearville is that is the bear

2:13

is the bull market over and

2:15

what do these things mean? The Mount Gox,

2:18

uh, news, if you haven't heard about that,

2:20

we'll get into it. E T F flows.

2:22

Maybe they're not what people will hope we'll

2:24

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6:00

on Bitcoin in more than a year. We

6:02

felt the knock on effects of a slow

6:04

bleed down from 70K, but really hard to

6:06

put to words how strong today's selling was

6:08

relative to the last few months. We got

6:11

an 8% sell off of

6:13

Bitcoin candle down. In a one day

6:15

candle. Okay. Like no wonder

6:17

people are failing bearish after

6:19

this. What's going on here? Well,

6:22

there's a bunch of different things all putting it

6:24

together. I think the big news that we're going

6:26

to talk about is the Mt. Gox

6:28

distributions. That is kind of the new thing that's

6:31

in the meta. And if you've

6:33

been around in crypto before, you know that Mt. Gox

6:35

always comes back. There's been this supply

6:37

of Mt. Gox of Bitcoins that is

6:40

perceived to be going to be sold by the market. As

6:42

soon as Mt. Gox creditors get

6:45

their Bitcoins, Mt. Gox, the of

6:47

course, infamous crypto exchange that got

6:49

hacked. 15% of

6:51

the Bitcoins were recovered. Uh, and over

6:53

the last like 11 years, creditors of

6:55

Mt. Gox have been squabbling over like

6:58

the distribution details. And it seems

7:00

to be like that those arguments, those debates

7:02

have finally come to a head and they

7:04

have finally determined a release date for

7:06

the Mt. Gox coins. Uh, and this has

7:08

created just the bearish act like the price

7:11

action, uh, perceived to be the reason behind

7:13

the bearish price action. Um, but

7:15

I would call it like, it's

7:17

not just Mt. Gox. It's just

7:19

like Mt. Gox is like the next sucker

7:21

punch out of just like a

7:24

seemingly lack of ability to get some momentum,

7:26

like we, we crossed all time highs in

7:28

Bitcoin and that was it. And then we

7:30

went down below them. Like we haven't, we

7:32

haven't had the bull market that we wanted. And so

7:35

I think Mt. Gox is just like another sucker punch

7:37

to the gut and people are tired

7:39

of just like, why am I getting punched? I

7:41

thought I was getting a bull market. Yeah. They're

7:43

saying, uh, this wasn't the bull market we were

7:45

promised and we hoped for. So what's going on

7:47

here? And is, is that kind of the end?

7:49

And this is a Jim Bianco commenting on that

7:52

8% down, like the

7:54

largest, uh, Bitcoin candle down in a

7:56

year. If this holds, it will be

7:58

Bitcoin's worst day since. March

8:00

2023, you know what happened in March 2023? Not

8:03

only were we still kind of in the bear market,

8:06

it was the Silicon Valley bank panic.

8:08

Remember all that? That chaos? That's

8:11

what precipitated it last time, an 8% down. And

8:15

like, I guess maybe Mt. Gox and

8:17

other just bearish sentiment precipitated it this

8:19

time. How about this? To

8:21

give you an image of how much Net Delta

8:23

was sold today across Futures and Spot, Bitcoin major

8:25

exchanges on Bitcoin alone, we sold more than 57,000

8:27

Bitcoin or 3.4 billion net. That's

8:35

how much dollars was sold into

8:37

the market. So implying that

8:39

actually like, there's also that much buying. But

8:42

like, yeah, so like 3.4 billion dollar like

8:45

what hit the market in a cell pressure. Here's

8:48

a colorful chart. What are you showing

8:50

here? This is a chart of Bitcoin

8:52

as well as like a bunch of

8:54

column art altcoins, just random altcoins like

8:56

Litecoin, Cardano, Doge, XRP,

8:59

YFI. And

9:01

Bitcoin is down worse than all of them.

9:03

Bitcoin in this chart is down like 2.3% while

9:06

most of these things are down like 1% or

9:08

less. And

9:10

this is uncharacteristic where like Bitcoin is usually

9:12

the safe haven. As you

9:14

go down the market cap stack as things get

9:16

more illiquid, they they usually just get absolutely wrecked

9:18

when Bitcoin goes down 2%. Bitcoin

9:21

going down 2%, that means other things are going down 6%

9:23

or greater. This

9:25

is kind of the inverse. And so like

9:27

what's up with these uncharacteristic like

9:30

decreasing Bitcoin price? Usually not what happens.

9:33

Also saw this tweet thread that kind of summed

9:35

it up from Jason Choi. He says he titles

9:37

the whole thread. It's kind of a long one.

9:39

Welcome to Bear Town. I'm not going to read

9:41

it all. But he goes through all of these

9:43

different metrics that he's seeing that makes it feel

9:45

kind of like crypto feel toppy,

9:47

let's say. And I'll

9:49

point out this one, a qualitative observation.

9:52

He talks about large VC funds and

9:54

kind of like LPs being more reluctant

9:56

to kind of like invest. So LP

9:58

capital. in private crypto funds kind of

10:00

drying up. And then he also says

10:02

this, celebrity coins usually signal

10:05

an increasingly frothy market. While these

10:07

once hailed as crypto Twitter's heroes,

10:09

they're now castigated as the scapegoat

10:11

for the pains of the market,

10:14

all reliable signs of late cycle. The

10:16

TLDR is the qualitative signals that he,

10:18

Jason observed in late 2021, have

10:21

reared their heads in alternative forms today. It's

10:23

been kind of a weird cycle for that

10:25

too, right? Like we already got the celebrity

10:27

involvement, Iggy Azalea and like Andrew Tate, like

10:30

launching their own coins. Oh, Jay's burrellas here

10:32

now. Yeah, Jay, really? And

10:34

it's like these

10:36

tokens have pumped and then sold off.

10:38

So Jason's saying, hey, there's the qualitative

10:40

metrics too that make this feel a

10:43

little toppy and it's like

10:45

falling off the top including

10:47

celebrity involvement and celebrity endorsement. There's

10:50

another take I saw in my timeline that I

10:52

thought was just like emblematic of the times in

10:54

quotes, crypto trading close to all time high arguments

10:57

are logically flawed as they lack timing

11:00

and benchmark decisions. Yes, crypto is still

11:02

trading below 2021 highs. That's

11:05

a problem. It's a sign

11:07

of weakness, not a strength. And so I think

11:09

I've said this, maybe we have said this is

11:11

just like, yo, like Ether still below all time

11:13

highs, Bitcoin crossed all time highs but fell back

11:15

down below. Still plenty of like upside left in

11:18

this market. And this individual is

11:20

giving the opposite side of account. Like

11:22

the SPY is massively at all

11:24

time highs. Like many equities are at huge

11:27

all time highs and crypto is not, that

11:29

is a sign of weakness, not strength. And

11:32

so just like another bullish or bearish take

11:34

that has been like circling around like my

11:36

feed these last weeks. And I'm kind of

11:38

reminded of the episode we did

11:40

with Chris Berniskey not too long ago, the last

11:42

episode we did where bearish takes go viral when

11:45

everyone is bearish. And of course,

11:47

vice versa, bullish takes also go viral

11:49

when like the market is like looking

11:51

for bullishness. And like bearish takes, we're

11:53

going viral over the last like three

11:55

days, four days. Yeah, sentiment is reflexive,

11:57

but I do think there's something to

11:59

this underlying. tweet is like people are

12:01

looking over at the S&P and like

12:03

the stock market and they're seeing all-time

12:05

highs over there and they're looking at

12:07

crypto and they're seeing like no all-time

12:09

highs, nothing close. And so like

12:11

there's almost a question of like what happened?

12:13

Maybe this, the glass half full

12:16

interpretation of that is like wow this is

12:18

a sign of weakness. Is there something structurally

12:20

wrong with crypto? The reason we have all-time

12:22

highs in the stock market but we don't

12:24

have them in crypto. It's like one interpretation

12:26

of this is has the whole like has

12:28

a whole market liquidity kind of pivoted

12:30

to AI and videos like sucking in

12:32

all of these gains. It's like smoking

12:35

things whereas crypto is stagnant and off

12:37

all-time high. So that's kind of the

12:39

sentiment right now that we're looking at.

12:41

So I think we should dissect these

12:43

one by one like

12:45

kind of like the FUD and then we'll talk about

12:47

the bull case too. The

12:49

ETH ETF will be nothing. Gox is going

12:51

to dump on you. There's no new use

12:53

cases in crypto. There's too much token

12:56

supplies. Let's take some of these one

12:58

by one. David, there was a thread

13:00

that went somewhat viral on the impact

13:02

of the Ethereum ETF and analysis. So

13:05

many folks had been saying including like

13:07

you know our take, bankless take is

13:09

that Ethereum ETF is going to be

13:12

absolutely massive. Not necessarily- verify

13:14

is going to love the ETH ETF. Yes

13:16

and not necessarily immediately but like inflows will

13:18

steadily like come in and we'll get like

13:20

you know 20% of the inflows or so

13:23

of the Bitcoin ETF and maybe that's a conservative

13:26

estimate and those flows will be

13:28

good for Ethereum because there's not

13:30

very much ETH supply on the

13:32

market. This take, this analysis from

13:34

Andrew Kang does the exact opposite.

13:37

So his analysis is that

13:40

the ETH ETFs will be basically nothing.

13:43

What's some of the summary of Andrew's take

13:45

on this? Yeah he says,

13:47

personally I believe the expectations of crypto

13:49

natives are overinflated and disconnected from the

13:51

true preferences of tradFi allocators. So I

13:53

think that's kind of the main punch line

13:56

here is that the true preferences of

13:58

tradFi allocators is actually just not- on

14:00

the radar of crypto natives.

14:02

We just aren't tuned to what they

14:04

actually want. And he goes

14:06

in and says some of the things that

14:08

we actually have frequently said about Ether and

14:11

why TradFi might like it. Like, Ether, it's

14:13

a cash flowing asset. It does a buyback

14:15

and burn. Like you can model this out.

14:17

You can put it in DCF. This is

14:19

something that TradFi can reason about. It's a

14:21

tech asset. But then Andrew Kangen

14:23

goes into some of the actual metrics with

14:26

$1.5 billion 30-day annualized revenue, which

14:30

gives Ethereum, Ether, a 300X price to

14:32

sales ratio, which is like very

14:35

expensive, with negative earnings to PE ratio

14:37

after inflation. He says that how, look,

14:39

if we, it's a tech asset, these

14:41

metrics are dog shit. It's

14:44

a dog shit tech asset in the grand scheme of things.

14:47

And then he also goes to say

14:49

that like, well, we got net Bitcoin

14:51

inflows at around $5 billion, $5

14:53

billion of buy pressure. There's

14:55

$15 billion of net inflows into the Bitcoin

14:58

ETFs, but some of that is doing a

15:00

bunch of Delta neutral stuff. So some of

15:02

that Bitcoin ETF inflows is also selling on

15:05

some different exchange. So net

15:07

inflows are $5 billion. That's Andrew Kang's

15:09

math. And then he thinks when

15:12

you do the, how the correlation with how

15:14

much is going to go into Ether, he's

15:16

thinking 0.5 to 1.5 billion, which

15:19

is a much lower number. That's not a

15:22

very high number at all. He says this in

15:24

conclusion, before the ETF launch, I expect ETH to

15:26

trade from 3K to 3,800. So

15:29

that's within range of where we are now. After

15:32

the ETF launch, my expectation is 2,400 to

15:34

300. So

15:37

David, a price point lower than we are

15:39

now, after the Ethereum ETF

15:41

products go live, right? It's like, I

15:43

think a lot of the bull

15:46

case would be like, obviously new inflows

15:48

were going to go up. And he's

15:50

saying we go down because the inflows

15:52

will actually disappoint crypto investors and the

15:55

market in total. He also had another

15:57

tweet like on the back of this,

15:59

compared Ethereum charts. and the ETH Bitcoin

16:01

ratio to Intel, actually. And it

16:03

shows like kind of Intel, sorry,

16:05

hit an all-time high and then just like

16:07

never fully recovered in terms of all-time

16:10

highs against some sort of indices. And

16:13

the question is, has Ethereum lost its

16:15

steam too? Will the ETH ETF flows

16:17

disappoint? Anyway, we gotta get the bear

16:20

cases out before

16:22

we get to the bull case, but that

16:24

is the bear case on the ETH ETF.

16:26

And we talk about Mt. Gox again. Gox.

16:29

How many times should we talk about Mt. Gox in this

16:31

podcast? All right, Mt. Gox, this

16:33

was actually breaking news. After how many years

16:35

has it been, David? 11. Like 11

16:38

years? Is

16:40

the Mt. Gox, is all of that supply

16:42

finally going to become unleashed on the market?

16:44

What are we looking at here? Not

16:46

all of it, but yes. We actually

16:49

are getting a date that is gonna be July,

16:51

early July is what they said, which is, you

16:53

know, that's like two weeks. So

16:56

the rumor is that $9 billion of

16:58

Bitcoin is gonna become available and

17:01

distributed to creditors of Mt. Gox. It

17:03

is perceived by the market, the classic

17:06

like Mt. Gox FUD is that, well,

17:08

these creditors have had their capital locked

17:10

up in these like Mt. Gox distribution court

17:12

cases for 11 years. And

17:14

Bitcoin has, you know, what's 11 years of big

17:17

price action. It's like really, really good. A

17:19

lot. It's a lot. And so they would,

17:21

they're gonna sell. Clearly they're gonna sell. They're like

17:23

forest holders for 11 years. That's

17:26

gonna be selling pressure. And so it's

17:28

been perceived by the market that when these Mt.

17:30

Gox coins finally get put into the hands of

17:32

their owners per the distribution of the courts, then

17:35

all of those people are gonna sell. And

17:37

that's why like this Mt. Gox FUD has been

17:39

like overhanging the market as long as I've

17:41

been in crypto. I, 2017, it's just been this like meme

17:46

that has just been passed down through the generations.

17:48

Yeah, it's like one of those like China's

17:50

banding crypto type recurring like cycles. Mt.

17:52

Gox like a supply is going to

17:55

become released. But this time it actually

17:57

looks like it's gonna be true. And we're talking about a

17:59

substantial amount of Bitcoin. $9 billion

18:01

worth of Bitcoin. Earlier in this podcast, we just

18:03

talked about how $3.4 billion was net sold on

18:05

Monday. That

18:08

was the big red candle day. And

18:10

so the market is like, we got

18:12

nine more billion to get sold. Yeah.

18:15

So maybe like obviously part of the Monday price

18:17

drop was your price drop was

18:19

front running some of that activity, but like

18:22

we actually haven't seen the pressure. So when

18:24

is that happening? Am I

18:26

reading July? Early July. Yeah. And

18:28

then the lump sum all nine billion is available right

18:30

away. No, we'll talk about that.

18:33

But does the market know that? I'm not

18:35

so sure. Interesting. And

18:37

to add insult to injury, David, do you know that

18:39

Germany, the country of Germany is actually dumping on us?

18:43

Where did Germany get Bitcoin? Yeah,

18:45

they got it in a seizure.

18:48

So there was, I don't know, it was like,

18:50

I'm just not the pirate bay, but it's some

18:52

sort of, you know, like, yeah, black market, gray

18:54

market type of thing. Government intelligence seizure of crypto.

18:57

Yeah. German government sees $3 billion

19:00

worth of Bitcoin. They've started to sell and

19:02

they're continuing to sell. You can see their

19:04

transactions on chain. Yeah. So

19:06

our country of Germany, our comm is doing

19:08

this. So yeah, they're paper handing. I

19:11

don't know. Maybe they have to buy law. It

19:13

feels like maybe like they should kind of, they're going to regret that

19:15

in 10 years. They should change that. Anyway,

19:18

they're dumping on us too. It's not just Mount Gox.

19:21

And that's not all the foot. The flood kind of

19:23

continues. So how about this? We have

19:25

no new use cases in crypto tech like the

19:28

best we can do are these cheap

19:30

celebrity meme coins. We've got nothing new. What's

19:32

what take are we looking at here? Yeah,

19:34

this is a cigar who I

19:37

wouldn't say that this take is this. Well,

19:39

this take is actually old. This is June 14th. So

19:41

like a little bit over a week ago, but it's

19:43

a take that has been like brewing and a

19:46

lot of the recent, like I'm saying, a lot of

19:48

the recent sucker punches that we've got just recently, the

19:50

Mount Gox, the Germany selling, all this kind of stuff

19:53

is like layer on like this

19:55

previously like nihilist sentiment about the

19:57

current state of crypto. All

20:00

these like current events that's happening this week just

20:03

feel way worse because we have these like

20:05

there's no new use cases for crypto this

20:07

cycle. So Saigar he tweets out 2017 we

20:09

had ICOs 2020 we had DeFi

20:11

summer 2021 we had NFTs 2024 what the hell do we have? He says the real

20:17

mania begins when a new paradigm comes around

20:19

and brings in new entrants to crypto. My

20:22

guess the innovation this time around will evolve

20:24

around consumer friendly apps that are unlocked by

20:26

better tooling but where

20:28

is the apps? Where are the apps?

20:31

And so we have these ideas about where the apps are

20:33

but like right now we have celebrity meme coins

20:36

and Jason Derillo is coming back to launch his

20:38

like fourth or fifth like rug

20:40

that he's been in crypto. Oh he's done

20:42

this before? He's done this like four times

20:44

before. Jason Derillo. Zach XPT is like in

20:46

his mentions in his replies like every tweet

20:49

saying like just FYI this guy's a scammer.

20:51

He actually got community noted by the Twitter

20:53

app saying like hey by the way this

20:55

guy has done this before he's this is like his fourth

20:57

time like don't buy his bullshit. And

20:59

so like no you don't get to put

21:01

like celebrity meme coins as like the the

21:04

mania that is bringing people in in 2024.

21:06

Am I right that he usually does this

21:08

like near cycle tops so it's like when

21:10

things get in bear markets that's for

21:12

sure. Yeah he doesn't do it bear markets. This is

21:14

a David Phelps take which is related this has to

21:16

be the strangest error in crypto I can remember the

21:18

tech is finally ready to be used at scale but

21:20

almost nothing useful is being built. This is

21:22

nearly the exact opposite of how it was in 2017 2021. 2017

21:24

we just discovered programmable

21:29

money and smart contracts and some early use

21:31

cases like ICOs as a result of that.

21:33

That was a magical time. 2021 it was

21:35

the world waking up to DeFi and what

21:37

do we have this time David? That's

21:41

a good question. What do we have this time? Yeah

21:43

that's why all the apps that I'm using are

21:45

the apps I've been using. That's

21:47

why it's a weird market cycle. This

21:50

is Miles making the case that you

21:52

like crypto media is suffering as well.

21:54

Crypto YouTube views are disproportionately lagging the

21:56

Bitcoin price. I don't know if these

21:58

are his YouTube views. Oh It's a

22:00

whole bunch of. Yeah, so even we're in there.

22:02

I thought that that's what kind of why I

22:04

included in this. So like, this is just all

22:06

crypto, like YouTube views. So like we're on there.

22:08

Altcoin Daily is here. BitBoy Crypto is there. Just

22:11

like data dash. Bunch of just like YouTube

22:14

or crypto YouTubers. And the

22:16

Bitcoin price is up, epic at all

22:18

time highs, but just like views on

22:20

YouTube have not followed. Like we had

22:23

our like Mark Cuban interview in the middle of 2021

22:25

that got like literally at

22:27

one million views. And we

22:29

don't have anything like that this cycle. Like the

22:31

people searching crypto terms on YouTube just aren't the

22:33

same as it was in 2021. Yeah,

22:36

again, it's retail. It's not here. We don't have any tweets

22:38

on this, but we could add to the, like there's a

22:40

feeling of too much supply. The number of

22:42

tokens out there are at all time highs. There's

22:45

a lot of VC unlocks that have been coming. And

22:47

people are like, you know, people are getting sick of

22:49

the airdrop meta. People are getting sick

22:51

of the, you know, high

22:54

low float, high FTV like token is. The

22:56

beginning is first unlock in like four weeks

22:58

coming up soon. So like that's going to

23:00

be fine to watch. Like if you're a

23:02

world coin investor, like you're selling, that's what

23:05

you're doing. You're up a bajillion X. Well,

23:07

I don't know what it is now, but I remember seeing

23:09

like a close to $100 billion market

23:13

cap for this thing, at least from,

23:15

sorry, not market cap, fully diluted valuation

23:17

at least, which is absolutely crazy. All

23:19

right, so that's the bear case. I

23:21

feel like we've established that enough. David,

23:24

give me some hope, man. Where's the hope

23:26

coming from? Right after we talked to some

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world on celo.org/quest. David, I asked for hope

26:08

you give me a commercial. What's going on

26:11

here, man? Well, you got

26:13

to make money down, man. The views are down. Here's

26:18

some hope maybe from Eric.Eth. Once

26:20

crypto Twitter is bearish, you're too

26:22

late. Rest in peace. This

26:24

is something that I definitely learned pretty like early in my,

26:27

well, late in my first cycle, but

26:29

like relatively early in my crypto career

26:31

is like, if everyone around you is

26:33

bearish, that's because the

26:36

bearish price action has already happened. Yeah. If

26:38

everyone is around you is bearish, like you

26:40

can't sell, but you can't

26:42

sell on that bearish. You can sell for whatever reason. You

26:44

can sell whatever you want, but you can't sell because like,

26:46

oh, everyone's bearish. Now I'm going to sell everyone's bearish because

26:48

the price went down. And so like,

26:50

and being bearish is like bearish and it's being

26:52

priced in. And so like you are not like,

26:54

oh, everyone around me bearish, maybe I should sell.

26:57

I don't think that's like a valid, valid

27:00

statement. And so this is why you always

27:02

have like the line of be greedy when

27:04

everyone's fearful and be fearful when everyone's greedy.

27:06

Right now, everyone's fearful. Everyone's scared right now.

27:08

Everyone's in dire straits. Yeah. By

27:10

the way, on this because it's bearish, you got

27:12

to focus on the bearish, but the inverse is

27:14

also true. It's like once crypto Twitter gets really

27:17

bullish, uh, you better think

27:19

about your cell plan. Like in particular start

27:21

executing on that. Yeah, I did. I did.

27:23

I think I remember talking about this take

27:25

and I generally agree when

27:27

there's retail here, but I think

27:29

all of crypto Twitter was extremely

27:32

bullish. Like the

27:34

end of 2020 I'm talking,

27:36

I'm talking a drunk, stupid,

27:39

exuberant, like supercycle, that type

27:41

of, yeah, we hadn't, we

27:43

hadn't uttered the word supercycle.

27:45

Yeah. I'm talking

27:48

about that level of bullishness, not the kind

27:50

that we see, which was like relatively tame

27:52

bullishness. Uh, but anyway, so, so Eric says

27:54

like, um, you know, once

27:56

people are already bearish, it's, it's, it's

27:58

too late. And there's. Like now don't

28:01

do anything. So when everyone's bear bullish a

28:03

tweet from miles here who says it's equally

28:05

as easy to make a Bull case too.

28:08

And this is in response to Andrew King

28:10

who elicited like all the reasons to be

28:12

bearish So Michael just responds. It's

28:14

easy. It's also easy to be bullish We

28:16

have the election in November which people think

28:18

is gonna a put eyes on crypto and

28:20

just be Donald Trump's gonna be the pro

28:22

Crypto president that's that's and he's gonna put

28:24

attention around it shift in regular story

28:27

stance towards crypto That's definitely true. EAT

28:29

ETF imminent equities rotate their profits into

28:31

crypto and also the markets oversold The

28:34

sentiment is max bearish. And

28:36

so basically saying like hey bearish takes

28:38

go viral when everyone's feeling bearish But

28:41

that doesn't mean like bullish takes aren't

28:43

valid And so he just lifts off a bunch of in

28:46

my opinion valid bullish takes the glass is half full

28:48

You can look at it from the opposite perspective as

28:51

well. Let's get into some details though on

28:53

some of these actual bear cases Let's start with

28:55

maybe a mount gox when you get to the

28:57

details. I'm not sure how bearish it actually is

29:00

What's this tweet? This is the take that? Insiders

29:03

who knew that this mount gox

29:05

disbursement announcement was coming front ran

29:07

that announcement because we know that

29:09

gox Like disbursement FUD has moved

29:11

the market frequently moved the market in

29:13

the past and so the real one which this is

29:15

the one we got We got the actual real one

29:17

of like the tokens are coming the bitcoins are getting

29:19

distributed Insiders front run that by just

29:21

selling the bitcoins which made the price go down

29:23

and then the announcement was made Which

29:25

means that this was already priced in Kind

29:27

of kind of another side to the same coin of Eric Connor's

29:30

take of like if everyone's bearish then it's too late And

29:32

then he continues to say after in

29:35

my in my opinion This probably means the

29:37

nuke on the announcement was the final pricing

29:39

in I continue to view the macro front

29:41

as quite bullish So I've been confused about

29:43

cryptos weakness lately. This may all make sense

29:45

now because of the announcement Based

29:47

on all these this view as the final

29:50

pricing in it's time to deploy a bit

29:52

of cash today Like

29:54

I said deploy David Yeah,

29:57

so he's basically saying the markets

29:59

reaction of this all already happened. When

30:01

you saw that 8% drop

30:03

on Bitcoin, that was the candle down that

30:06

like just now priced all of that selling

30:08

in. And it's like, we don't have to

30:10

worry about it from here on out. Yeah.

30:12

Alex Thorne, who works at Galaxy, who understands

30:14

how these markets work. They do just, they

30:16

do a bunch of market analysis, market structure

30:18

stuff. He says that it's,

30:20

there's a chance that people are overshooting

30:23

the bearishness. He says,

30:25

creditors have been stuck in Mt. Gox bankruptcy for

30:27

10 plus years. Finally, trustee says,

30:29

in kind distribution of Bitcoin will begin in

30:31

July. We think, we as Galaxy

30:33

will think that fewer coins will be distributed

30:35

than people think. And it will cause less

30:37

Bitcoin sale pressure than the market expects. Here's

30:39

why. And then basically it goes

30:42

through a bunch of analysis that says the real number

30:44

of distributed Bitcoin is 65,000 Bitcoins, not the 142,000 that's

30:48

frequently reported, which means that $4 billion

30:50

is distributed, not $8 billion also. The

30:54

people that are being distributed the Bitcoins aren't

30:57

necessarily like these long-term holders because

30:59

you can sell your claims on

31:01

Mt. Gox. Mt. Gox claims

31:04

have been like- It's already super liquid?

31:06

A decently liquid market since this,

31:08

for many, many times. And so people

31:10

have bought claims. And the people that

31:12

have bought claims are like hedge funds, people that are

31:14

trying to buy Bitcoin at a discount, like long-term holders.

31:17

And so a lot of that sell pressure has actually

31:19

already been expressed in the private markets. And

31:21

so of the Bitcoins that

31:23

are actually going to go to these like long-term

31:25

holders, people that have been identified as

31:27

like, I'm a long-term holder of these Mt. Gox

31:30

claims are by definition long-term

31:32

holders. That's what they had the option to

31:34

leave. Yeah. And so they could have left. Alex

31:36

brought the full analysis here. I got to say a

31:38

plus one for Alex, like he was dead on right.

31:40

Do you remember we had him on the podcast, we

31:42

were talking about the Bitcoin ETF and kind of like

31:44

flows and the analysis there. And he nailed that. Like

31:46

he totally killed it. Yeah. So, you know,

31:48

in this type of case, like he might

31:50

be more informed than the general market about

31:52

this. You're like one other tidbit, David, is

31:55

not just the Bitcoin that unlocks from Mt.

31:57

Gox. It's all the Bitcoin cash. Okay.

32:00

That is bearish. That part

32:02

is very bearish. Bitcoin Cash is

32:04

going to zero. Oh my God.

32:06

Imagine all of that liquidity of

32:08

Bitcoin Cash. All that the infinites

32:10

of liquidity for Bitcoin Cash. Is

32:13

it going to be a race to hit the sell

32:15

button on that one? So maybe don't be in Bitcoin

32:17

Cash would be some

32:19

advice that holds. Okay. How about the

32:21

ETF FUD does that hold? Perhaps.

32:24

I mean, we're not going to know until after

32:26

the fact, but there's plenty of reasons to be

32:29

bullish in addition to like the perceived bearishness that

32:31

people are giving takes of. I

32:33

mean, the real question is like, does

32:35

the ETF attract a meaningful amount of capital?

32:37

That's always been the question. Some

32:40

people are saying it's not going to. Some people are saying it is

32:42

going to. Now just

32:44

the loudness of the bears are

32:47

getting louder because this is, it's bearish time.

32:49

Bearish takes go viral during bear times. However,

32:53

this is another tweet from Zaheer.

32:55

ETH CME open interest in ETH

32:57

terms has officially hit an all

32:59

time high. And so this is the

33:02

CME open interest for Ether futures because you

33:05

don't have the actual ETF, but the Ether

33:07

futures is at all time high interest. And

33:09

that just means like buying pressure, basically. And

33:12

so, well, I mean, that's a pretty clear sentiment

33:14

of just like demand. Maybe there's some trading going

33:16

on here. Maybe they're going to try and do

33:18

some arbitrage, but just like you can't say it's

33:20

bearish if futures interest is that.

33:22

That's very, very trad-fi. I mean, it's the

33:24

freaking CME, right? So open interest all time

33:26

high is kind of bullish. Additionally,

33:29

ETH supply on centralized exchanges are at

33:31

all time lows. This

33:33

is also, I think a lot of people

33:35

are missed the fact that like, this is

33:37

also because exchanges are staking the ETH. So

33:40

there is supply on exchanges, but they have

33:42

put it away. The

33:44

supply is off the order books, but it

33:46

is, but Ether is being staked by exchanges. And so that's

33:48

why this, this ETH

33:50

supply on exchanges at all time low, I don't

33:52

know how much signal there is in that, but

33:54

nonetheless, like it's not on the order books. It's

33:57

crazy all time low too. I guess ETH seeking

33:59

explains a portion. of this, but probably not all

34:01

of it, right? Yeah, definitely not all of it. Here's

34:03

a retort from a DC investor, which is like kind

34:05

of like striking the balance here.

34:07

He says a few things. Yeah.

34:09

Some people are saying, by the way, that Ethereum

34:12

ETF getting launched in the summers, like Max

34:14

Barish, because you know, tradfis sell in May

34:16

and then go away. Everyone's on summer vacations.

34:19

DC is like, yeah, it probably would have

34:21

been more bullish if they launched in fall rather

34:23

than the summer, but it's better early than never.

34:26

At least we have it. And so what if it starts

34:28

out a little bit slow? It can kind of like catch

34:30

up. He also says, I don't

34:32

expect fireworks out of the gate and there

34:34

could be some initial sell the news, just

34:36

like with Bitcoin. But it's more

34:39

about the slow type melt up. So even

34:41

if we don't see fireworks out of the

34:43

gate, it's like all of the

34:45

inflows getting tracked on a weekly basis.

34:47

You see these ETFs that are like

34:50

25 percent ETH and 75 percent Bitcoin.

34:54

Those will start like moving into tradfi circles.

34:56

And also he said, you know, the comment

34:58

we were reading earlier from Andrew Kang about

35:01

ETH being sort of a cash flow asset.

35:03

DC says that's just the cherry on top.

35:05

I don't think Wall Street will analyze ETH

35:07

on a cash flow basis as this is

35:09

not the value prop of ETH. Instead, he

35:11

says, ETH will be pitched as a tech

35:13

platform with financial and other apps built on

35:15

top of it. Right. So it's not necessarily

35:17

about P.E. Certainly Bitcoin is not being rated

35:19

on a P.E. ratio perspective.

35:21

And so tradfi will take a broader

35:24

take on the whole asset class. So that's

35:26

a take that maybe balances the difference between

35:29

the bear and the bull. And I think

35:31

is pretty rational. Yeah. Yeah, that's right. All

35:33

right. So we talked about Gox. We talked about

35:36

the ETHTF. What about this? Hey, there's no new

35:38

use cases thing. And I mean, there's truth to

35:40

that. We haven't seen any breakout use cases this

35:42

cycle. Do you have a silver lining on that,

35:44

David? Not like a

35:47

global silver lining for the entire market,

35:49

but I will say Polymarket at the

35:51

prediction market platform. They have open interest

35:53

in all time highs in like activity.

35:56

So I don't know if they measure it in TVL,

35:58

but it's like the most amount of like. gambling

36:00

bets money being placed on poly market bets is

36:02

at all time highs. And

36:04

so that's pretty cool. Like it's great to actually

36:06

have like prediction market like taking off in a

36:08

very big way. Yeah, we

36:11

got one. We got one. Yeah, I'll actually

36:13

plus one that because like, you know, prediction

36:15

markets were an old use case for

36:18

crypto. And I think like we

36:20

don't need new use cases because the old

36:22

use cases were pretty damn awesome. We have

36:24

some ideas in crypto. Let's just dig some

36:26

up from the grave. Exactly. Like DeFi hasn't

36:28

been fully realized. Uniswap is now doing trillions

36:31

in value. Stablecoins are just continuing to rise.

36:33

That's going to be transformational on its own.

36:36

When you look at some of the DeFi

36:38

blue chips like Maker and Aave, collateralized lending,

36:40

that's all at all time highs

36:42

in terms of profit as well. DeFi revenues are

36:44

at all time highs in like a very big

36:46

way. Yeah, so the old use cases, I'm actually

36:48

more bullish on than some like net new thing

36:50

that we haven't discovered. Let's just finish up the

36:52

old use cases. Cause like we're talking about a

36:55

global financial system for the world. That's

36:57

huge. That's absolutely massive. We

37:00

haven't been able to realize that because we've

37:02

needed better onboarding. We've needed better UX. And

37:04

now we have cheap blocks base. We have easy

37:06

wallets. They're kind of getting there. We

37:09

have exchanges in the game. Like base is

37:11

going to onboard so many people from crypto

37:14

exchanges on chain for the first time.

37:16

We have tradFi liquidity, getting to Stablecoins

37:19

on chain, Treasuries BlackRock is on chain

37:21

right now. We have a solve for

37:23

fragmentation, I think. Vitalik put a tweet

37:25

out and he's just like, we don't

37:27

need full synchronous composability. The internet runs

37:29

on asynchronous composability. What we kind of

37:32

need is some adoption of UX standards

37:34

basically, right? And he goes through a

37:36

few short-term gains and how we can

37:38

get there. So the building blocks are

37:40

in place for user experience. And I

37:43

feel like we are closer than ever

37:45

to tying all of that together, to

37:47

realizing the old use cases. We don't

37:49

need new use cases. Like crypto

37:52

is a use case in itself. We will take some new

37:54

use cases. We will definitely take some new use cases. Take

37:56

what we can get at this time. I

37:58

will say just like a lot of. of the conversation that

38:01

you and I have on the show. And

38:04

especially when we talk about market stuff that like we

38:06

do is like the market, the

38:08

crypto market is so short term. It

38:10

is so short term focused. Oh yeah.

38:12

We think of things maybe 10 days

38:14

in advance. Some drama will happen and

38:16

we will forget about it like a

38:18

week later. And I think you and

38:20

me, like we are just long-term people. We've been here for,

38:23

I got you out in 2016, I got in 2017. We've

38:27

the whole content editorial policy of

38:29

Bankless is like thinking long-term, long

38:31

timeframes. So like we don't really

38:33

do well in like short-term markets because like why

38:36

would you care about the short-term? Just like, just

38:38

let things cook. And there's

38:40

like so many things that I just

38:42

want to let things cook. Coinbase fixing

38:44

like the leading the charge on like

38:46

fixing UX with like the base and

38:48

the integrated wallet and then

38:51

getting base up to a gig of

38:53

gas and like onboarding a bunch of

38:55

people. Circle's marketing campaigns, Bitwise's marketing campaigns,

38:57

Coinbase's ads. These are all like phenomenal

39:00

like marketing campaigns for the industry. Stablecoin

39:03

growth, just slowly grinding up. Revenue

39:06

and yield of DeFi apps have, like I said, has

39:08

been up. BlackRock tokenizing Biddle and

39:10

like they're not stopping there like all

39:13

like Larry Fink is bullish on tokenization.

39:15

Just like a lot of things you

39:18

just need to let cook. Give it a minute,

39:20

give it a minute guys. And then that includes

39:22

the Bitcoin ETF which has like a pause and

39:24

flows. That includes the ETF once

39:26

we get it. Like everything just needs to

39:28

cook. But like time is on

39:30

our side with all of these things. And I think

39:32

like with the Bitcoin price hitting all time highs but

39:35

not discovering price action, Ether's not there. It's just like,

39:37

just let things go. Just let things go. Yeah,

39:40

I totally agree. And if this is your first cycle or

39:42

your second cycle and you're kind of like panicking, this is,

39:44

is this asking yourself, is this the

39:46

end of the bull market? Just realize

39:49

everyone always asks themselves this question in

39:51

the midst of a bull market. Like

39:53

it happens every single time. And

39:55

also this bull market has been just so

39:57

mellow and not crazy. It

39:59

has been. The only place it's been crazy

40:02

is in like illiquid salon and meme coins.

40:04

But like that's not, it's not like the

40:06

whole entire market has not been crazy. So

40:08

like my mind is like, it's a bear

40:11

bull market over. I'm like, it kind of

40:13

hasn't started. We have just been slowly cooking

40:15

this entire time. This is Chris Sperninski. He's

40:17

retweeting something he tweeted in the depths of

40:20

the bear market, November 12th, 2022, November 12th,

40:22

2022, right after FTX. He

40:28

says bullish from near the bottom, hope to

40:30

see y'all at 10 trillion. He's talking about

40:32

the total market cap of crypto. We're at

40:34

about 2 trillion, 2.3 trillion, 2.5 trillion, something

40:36

like that. He thinks we'll go to 10

40:38

trillion. And he says this, he repost that

40:41

and he said, unwaveringly, 10

40:43

trillion remains the target we're still

40:45

on target. Like that, that

40:47

is, um, like around the estimates of what

40:50

we've been talking about as well. In fact,

40:52

I think that might be the base case

40:54

estimate, sort of a conservative estimate, but he

40:56

thinks we're still on target too. Yeah. On

40:58

target for 10 trillion stable coins. David,

41:03

uh, should we end with, end with some charts here?

41:05

What's this? I feel like this could still be in

41:07

the end. Two charts that I pulled out from my

41:09

trader friend who does this, uh, way

41:11

better than I, and he posted these charts on June

41:13

22nd, 21st, 22nd, right

41:17

before the crash. And he goes, I feel

41:19

like this could still be in the cards.

41:21

And he is showing a, uh, the Bitcoin

41:23

price falling down to literally exactly where it

41:25

fell 59,000. Uh,

41:27

and same thing with the ETH price, both the Bitcoin

41:29

and the ETH price falling down exactly where they fell

41:31

and then bouncing back up. Uh, so

41:33

I'm just kind of shouting out him that he kind of

41:36

called that he needed for the next part for him to

41:38

be right. We have to go up, but

41:40

there are traders, there are traders out there who are saying

41:42

like, yeah, first we're going to go down and then we're

41:44

going to go up. And we've actually just did the down

41:46

part. Uh, hopefully we do the up

41:48

part. That's so that was the hard part. But like

41:50

before up, we could be like in stasis for a

41:52

while. We could be back to no man's land. We

41:54

could be in like what we sell call the crab

41:56

market. Like this could be a slow summer. Yeah,

42:00

and I'm totally fine with a slow summer

42:02

and maybe we could kind of like summarize

42:04

and close this out, right? Might

42:06

might take here David is the the

42:09

crypto gods have blessed us yet again

42:11

We get another mid bull cycle accumulation

42:13

opportunity this summer And it's

42:16

like obviously you have to buy with a

42:18

long-term in mind So think in

42:20

years not months when you're buying crypto asset And

42:22

if it's not worth holding for the long term

42:24

like don't buy it and if you're scared

42:27

Dollar cost average in and if

42:29

you're terrified buy more lump sum,

42:31

right? But be prepared to wait

42:34

this could take a while be prepared to

42:36

wait years Right so that you can

42:38

like every single month not be like, oh is price

42:40

going up yet? Is price going up yet and

42:43

overall I would say just like for as long as

42:45

I've been in crypto I'm the

42:47

least worried that I've ever been

42:49

about my positions and about

42:52

This bull market feels pretty secure

42:54

like building more than ever. We've

42:56

solved some fundamental problems We've got

42:58

regulatory tailwinds that are starting to

43:00

like move in our direction things

43:03

that matter. Yeah Yeah, the

43:05

biggest risk I think is being offsides and

43:07

getting shaken out by these markets, right? And

43:09

so like not people lose more money in

43:11

crypto by actually not having exposure to crypto,

43:14

right or selling at the wrong times And

43:16

you also I would not want to be offside

43:19

in this market either, but that's what we always

43:21

say So that

43:23

is what we always say and I'll end with something

43:25

else We always say of course, you know crypto is

43:27

risky. You could lose what you put in but we

43:29

are headed west This is the frontier not for everyone,

43:31

but we're glad you're with us on the bankless journey.

43:33

Thanks a lot I

43:54

Hope to see you all at 10. Sorry

43:56

for Murphy. Hold on is his birthday, but he's being

43:58

an ass Hahahaha.