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you see it. an

4:00

audience, being able to

4:02

mute the mics would be a

4:04

detriment to President Trump. But if

4:07

anything, he seemed more controlled, more

4:09

moderated. Now, how both

4:11

candidates characterize each other's presidencies were just

4:14

not correct. There were a lot of

4:16

falsehoods, I think, honestly, on both

4:18

sides. But

4:20

the reality is that President Biden did

4:22

not fact check President Trump. And

4:25

of course, the broader issue here is that

4:27

he just underscored all of the concerns about

4:30

his age. And President Trump, on the

4:33

other hand, looked energetic.

4:35

He was confident. And he was very much on

4:37

his talking points. He talked a lot about immigration.

4:39

He talked a lot about inflation. I

4:41

think from a market's perspective, we didn't

4:44

hear anything about deficit restraint. I

4:47

think if anything, both gentlemen really reinforced

4:49

the importance of Medicare and Social Security.

4:51

There was no really whiff of reform.

4:53

President Biden talked a little bit about

4:56

it. And they talked

4:58

about tariffs. And so I think that the big

5:00

themes for the markets, higher

5:02

deficits, and more tariffs,

5:04

more hawkishness on China. Those are, I

5:06

think, if you're trading in front of

5:08

your screen this morning, those are kind

5:10

of the big takeaways. John does that.

5:13

Here at Bloomberg's surveillance, Tucker's doing meme

5:15

stocks here. He's trading. But

5:17

those, I think, are the big takeaways.

5:19

Obviously, the chances of President Trump being

5:21

really elected are higher this morning than

5:23

they were yesterday. I think after yesterday's

5:25

debate, it's clear that style over substance

5:27

was the big takeaway from the proceedings

5:29

of 90 Minutes. I

5:31

guess the question now is, how does the White

5:33

House regain control of the narrative versus how do

5:35

Democrats as a party regain control of the narrative?

5:39

Yeah, well, I think there is no really indication

5:41

from Biden or at least the campaign world that

5:43

there is a problem. I do

5:45

think that it sounds like from what

5:47

folks are saying, that internally in the

5:49

White House, there are concerns. I think

5:51

it's kind of the broader question is,

5:53

even though folks are talking about an

5:55

open convention or replacing President Biden, the

5:57

only person who who can make that

5:59

decision as Biden himself. They're, we are

6:01

not in the 1960s, right? This

6:04

is not 1960, this is not 1968, where

6:07

you had party elders in the back

6:09

room smoking cigars. This is not LBJ

6:11

after the Tet of Benson. No, and

6:13

we keep reinforcing that to clients, is

6:15

that they're just, the party mechanics are

6:17

so different from those days. And so

6:19

really only President Biden can make the

6:21

decision on whether he is going to

6:23

continue to be on the ticket. And

6:26

this is his decision alone. With PIMCO and particularly

6:28

with the Allianz on the

6:30

continent of Europe, you've always had an

6:33

international feel. Foreign affairs, and I give

6:36

foreign affairs great credit, they had two Biden,

6:39

Trump, foreign analysis within

6:41

the latest issue. And the democratic side

6:43

of course was done by Ben Rhodes.

6:45

Who else? Ben Rhodes last

6:47

night on Twitter. Just think

6:50

about what that debate looked like

6:52

to people and leaders around

6:54

the world. You mentioned

6:56

this earlier, Scarlett. How will this be

6:58

taken particularly by Beijing? Nick

7:01

Burns has to deal with Beijing over

7:03

there. Yeah, I mean, and I actually,

7:05

by the way, that foreign affairs article,

7:07

Ben Rhodes article is very interesting. Robert

7:09

O'Brien's article in that latest issue, I

7:11

would say if you're interested in what

7:13

a Trump 2.0 foreign policy

7:15

will look like, that is worth a read because

7:17

he sort of lays out the roadmap for foreign

7:19

policy. Of course,

7:21

President Biden is not only a candidate, he is the President

7:23

of the United States. What

7:26

signal did he send both our allies

7:28

but also to China? Well, he did

7:30

not, of course, restore any confidence that

7:32

he can manage four more years, let

7:35

alone next 90 minutes. So I think

7:37

it really undermined, I

7:42

don't wanna be hyperbolic here. We don't wanna over

7:44

extrapolate from one debate. But again, it reinforced all

7:46

the- Okay, cut to the chase. What do you

7:48

tell Jerome Schneider today? He's

7:50

in short term paper. What's

7:53

the market effect for Jerome Schneider at PIMCO

7:55

that you see in Washington? Well, again,

7:57

I think that the big takeaway from

7:59

last night is that deficits are gonna continue

8:01

to go up because neither candidate is

8:03

going to reform the entitlements. They

8:06

may not be able to spend a lot more,

8:08

but they're not gonna do anything about our structural

8:10

deficit issue. And again, tariffs are

8:13

likely to go up. I thought the

8:15

interesting conversation around tariffs was that President

8:17

Trump was not defensive of his tariff

8:19

plan. He was leaning into it. He

8:21

was talking about how it wasn't going

8:24

to increase inflation, how it was a

8:26

good thing for the United States, both

8:28

from a national security perspective, and

8:31

economic perspective. He talked about deficit reduction in terms

8:33

of tariffs. So I think the big takeaway, Tom,

8:36

is, and this is true if Biden's

8:38

elected too, deficits are going up and likely

8:40

we're gonna have more hawkish relationship with China

8:42

and tariffs are going up. Libby, thank

8:44

you. Libby Cantrell with Public Policy and PIMCO

8:47

here after this historic debate.

8:55

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10:25

The first smart note

10:27

last evening was from

10:29

Terrence Haynes. He's with Pangea Policy.

10:32

He's been doing this forever. You know

10:34

he was prepared, but the

10:36

bottom line is Terry Haynes absolutely

10:39

nailed it last night with perspective

10:41

over what we saw. Scarlet Fu

10:43

and Tom Kean now with Terry

10:46

Haynes. Terry, I'm not gonna

10:48

mince words off your note. I'm gonna

10:50

pick a couple ideas here as I

10:52

can. Others,

10:55

the Democrats particularly, are like nervous

10:57

for next week until

10:59

the polling consequences fully shake

11:01

out. How low

11:03

will the polling be? How

11:05

will they adjust after President

11:08

Biden's performance? Well,

11:10

you know, I don't think the polling's gonna

11:12

change a great deal over the next 10 days.

11:14

That is instinct on my part. But

11:16

compare this. Biden at

11:18

three points. Biden is at roughly 42% right

11:20

now. He and Trump are

11:23

tied. 33%

11:26

of those surveyed in the CNN

11:28

Flash post-debate poll thought Biden won

11:30

the debate. And you know, there's

11:32

a bunch of different snark we

11:34

could respond to. But

11:36

they, you know, but there's a third of those, not

11:38

too far off the 42% thought that he won. So

11:43

I think what you're probably gonna get is some sort

11:45

of a dip. But you know, short

11:47

attention span theater here is gonna move on

11:49

to Trump immunity, Trump

11:51

sentencing, conventions, all kinds of other things.

11:53

Meanwhile, Biden's got a lot of time

11:55

to try to correct the ship. And

11:58

Democrats have nowhere to go on this,

12:00

frankly. Okay, well, that's a really important

12:02

distinction now the zeitgeist this morning as

12:04

they do have a place to go

12:07

Why can't they go? To

12:09

a president who decides with his family

12:11

to in some form

12:13

not run for a second term And

12:16

there's seven or eight other people that can make this

12:18

look like Grover Cleveland Alexander in 1880. Why can't they

12:20

do that? That

12:24

was Grover Cleveland not Grover Cleveland. Excuse me.

12:26

Sorry Anyway, the But

12:31

the the the point is really twofold one

12:33

is that Biden's got a tight grip on

12:35

the on the party Secondly, you

12:38

know a lot of the party's been enabling

12:40

send pockets of the media as well Not

12:42

this not this network but pockets of the

12:44

media have been enabling Democrats

12:47

Particularly corporate Democrats in Washington trying to

12:49

ignore this as best they can, you

12:51

know, now the reckoning is here You

12:54

know The last thing I think they will do is

12:56

make a snap decision To

12:58

jettison the sitting president off the ticket and

13:00

the sitting president will resist that with every

13:02

fiber and his being he's been after this

13:04

for 50 years So, you know

13:07

reality will set in and the plan B

13:09

will be you know How do we how

13:11

do we prop this up and move forward?

13:14

Let me bring in Scarlett foo in for

13:16

Paul Sweeney this morning Scarlett Terry We know

13:19

a lot of Americans don't like

13:21

the candidates running for president in

13:23

November and they want someone else

13:26

Does the debate boost any

13:28

third-party candidates? You

13:30

know, I don't think it does Scarlett There

13:33

and you know, there's a huge disparity

13:35

in a lot of things related to

13:37

this election One is the appetite for

13:39

a third-party candidate Compared

13:41

with the actual third-party candidates, you know

13:44

I thought at one point probably back

13:46

in January or so February that Bob

13:48

Kennedy had a pretty decent shot at

13:51

becoming a serious candidate He's

13:53

decided to turn himself into a niche candidate

13:56

and his numbers reflect that the

13:58

air is slowly being let out of the balloon

14:00

and will continue to, I think, continue

14:02

in that direction. The other thing I want

14:05

to point out to you, it's implied in

14:07

your question, is, you know, where do people

14:09

go? If this was

14:11

any other Republican other than Trump,

14:14

you'd see wholesale flight from Biden

14:17

to that Republican candidate, I think.

14:20

Polling shows, continues to show, though, that

14:22

even though people are kind of marginal

14:24

on Biden, they don't want to go

14:26

to Trump. There's no such thing as

14:29

a somewhat disapproves of Trump. It's all

14:31

strong disapproval. So, you know, these people

14:33

are in a bit of a quandary,

14:35

which, you know, in a backhanded way

14:37

works in Biden's favor, I think. Okay.

14:40

So that's how it stands with voters.

14:42

What about our allies, our

14:44

rivals in the global theater? As

14:46

Democrats wait for polls to come

14:48

out and you said it'll be

14:50

a couple of days, how does

14:52

Europe, how does China prepare to

14:55

think about what might happen in November? Well,

14:57

you know, I've been banging the drum on this

14:59

for nine months to

15:02

a year, I think. You know, we've got the highest

15:04

geopolitical risk in over 50

15:07

years already. So,

15:09

you know, the net net of last

15:11

night's debate is that it's negative for

15:13

geopolitical risk and it's negative for U.S.

15:15

domestic political risk as well. You

15:19

know, our ally, or excuse

15:21

me, our foes already feel somewhat emboldened.

15:24

That's a whole other conversation as to why, but

15:26

they do. And, you

15:28

know, allies now

15:31

officially are probably going to be a

15:33

little bit more disquieted. I'm trying to

15:35

avoid the, you know, the 24 hour

15:37

culture war cable TV talk, Terry, but

15:39

I got to go to a single

15:41

sentence of your brilliant note from last

15:43

night. It's the first thing I read,

15:45

folks, last night coming off this debacle.

15:48

You said of the president of the

15:50

United States, sometimes over prepped and

15:52

was without humor, a sin

15:55

for an Irish American politician.

15:58

This was no JFK last night.

16:00

I get it, but the over-prepped,

16:02

I think, is brilliant, Terry. His

16:04

first answer, I was

16:07

thunderstruck by the factoidness of

16:09

it. Yeah,

16:11

yeah, I think so. You know, I heard

16:14

that a bunch in the debate where, you

16:16

know, you could almost see the, you know,

16:18

you can almost hear the click and, you

16:20

know, like, you know, this

16:23

is the spiel that works, you

16:25

know, with pollsters

16:27

and fact-gatherers, and, you

16:29

know, this is my answer, you know,

16:32

kaboom. And, of course, you

16:34

know, that's a double-sided sword, too,

16:37

because that whole Medicare staff happens

16:39

when he forgets

16:41

the line and the transition.

16:43

So, you know, Biden's

16:45

coin throughout his career has been

16:48

affability and relatability, and neither showed up

16:50

last night, and that's unfortunate for him.

16:52

Terry Haynes, thank you so much, and

16:54

for all of us at Bloomberg, thank

16:56

you for your perspective across many conversations

16:59

in the past 24

17:01

hours. Mr. Haynes is with Penn, Jesus.

17:08

I know he'll be here on July 5th, and

17:10

that is Neil Dutta. As all of you know,

17:12

I thought he did a phenomenal job in 2023

17:15

of being optimistic. Neil Dutta of Renaissance,

17:21

Red Mac, I should say. Are you

17:23

still optimistic about the American

17:25

economic experiment? I

17:29

mean, my optimism is getting a little

17:31

bit shaken because I think the Fed

17:33

is, you

17:35

know, on the wrong side of the

17:37

eight ball here. You know, their rhetoric,

17:39

I think, doesn't really match the

17:42

tone of the incoming economic information that we're

17:44

seeing. You know, they're going

17:46

around telling people that the economy is strong.

17:50

Over the first five months of this year,

17:52

real consumption is growing below 1%. New

17:55

home sales, we just learned,

17:57

are running at their lowest level since last November.

18:00

Yeah. Ending home sales

18:02

are at fresh record lows. And

18:05

over the last six months, core capital goods

18:08

orders and shipments are

18:10

basically flat. And I think the reason

18:12

that matters is because one of the

18:15

things the Hawks have been saying is

18:17

that financial conditions are too easy. They're

18:20

too easy, so the Fed can't cut. If

18:23

financial conditions are so loose,

18:25

why is it that things that

18:27

you'd expect to respond to the

18:30

sort of standard financial accelerator model

18:32

like housing, like business investment, they're

18:35

flat on their back. So either

18:37

you're looking at the wrong financial

18:39

stress variable, maybe

18:42

it's things like loan rates for

18:44

private households more so than corporate credit

18:46

spreads, maybe it's the strong dollar, maybe

18:48

it's just high interest rates generally, more

18:51

so than equity prices. That really is

18:53

what we should be focusing on. Scarlett,

18:55

by the way, Tom, I haven't talked

18:57

to Scarlett, I feel like in so

19:00

long, so it's good to hear. Yeah, it's great

19:02

to hear. You know, I mean, she's like doing

19:04

the 24 hour shift today, but the real issue

19:06

is Dudders with his kids in the afternoon. He's

19:08

like, you know, forget about Scarlett. Neil

19:11

Dudders with Scarlett Phil. Good morning, all.

19:14

Neil, let me ask you about the core

19:16

PC and just dig into it a little bit

19:18

more because it's slowing down. The gains are slowing

19:20

down in large part because oil

19:22

prices have come down and I know we're

19:24

talking about core versus non-core, but in any

19:26

case and declining goods prices, but services,

19:29

which does include things like home insurance

19:31

or auto insurance that remains sticky. I

19:33

got the bill for my home insurance.

19:35

It was stunning. And when I asked

19:37

the broker to look into other other

19:39

policy premiums, couldn't find anything better. So

19:41

I was stuck with it. And we're

19:43

not talking about 2.6% increase. We're talking

19:45

about 20% per

19:49

se. But your house price has gone up.

19:52

So it's a wash. Oh, listen to you.

19:54

Oh, John, I don't think I had to

19:56

cut the dogs back from fancy Hills dog

19:58

food to some, you know, keep

20:00

Costco thing because of

20:02

the insurance continue, Scarlett. So, Neil, talk

20:05

a little bit more about the services

20:07

inflation that we're seeing and the stickiness

20:09

there and whether we're not

20:11

paying enough attention to it. Well,

20:15

I think we're paying too much

20:17

attention to it, quite frankly, because

20:19

this is being used as a rationale

20:21

for sort of holding off on

20:23

rate cuts. And frankly, I think what's

20:25

interesting is that we

20:28

can say why core services inflation

20:30

has been strong, but

20:32

I think it's more challenging to lay out

20:34

a coherent rationale for why it will stay

20:37

strong. One of the reasons why we look

20:39

at core services is because of the labor

20:41

market sensitivity. If you look at unit labor

20:43

costs over the last year, they've been growing

20:45

less than 1% at an annual rate. So

20:49

where's the inflation coming from? You talk

20:51

about insurance costs, and it's true that

20:53

insurance costs have gone up, but it's

20:55

also true that the underlying value of

20:58

the asset you're insuring is not rising

21:00

as rapidly as it once was, whether

21:03

that be housing or more importantly,

21:05

autos. Auto adjacent services,

21:07

things like motor vehicle insurance,

21:09

maintenance and repair costs, those are

21:12

ripe for a disinflationary pressure because the

21:14

value of the car is declining. I

21:17

mean, if we look at wholesale auction

21:19

prices for used vehicles, it looks like

21:22

used car prices will continue deflating over the summer.

21:24

We already know that new car prices are down

21:26

about a percent since last year. So I

21:29

think it's just important to kind of think about first

21:31

principles. And what do we know?

21:33

People are talking about how we're done with the

21:35

disinflation and goods with the dollar breaking out to

21:37

year to date highs. So how does that work?

21:39

I mean, most of what we import are consumer

21:42

goods. So anyway. Well,

21:45

Neil Dudda with us, and we're going to continue with

21:47

Mr. Dudda. Gina Martin Adams with us as well. We

21:50

are commercial free for you in this 8 o'clock. Our

21:53

lot's going on. Future stabilize up 18, then

21:55

out to up 24. Now

21:57

back to up 18, marked it up 19.

22:00

right now, S&P futures, NASDAQ

22:02

up half a percent as

22:04

well. Neil Dotto, we just

22:06

had an economist time talking about sub 2% real

22:09

GDP for six months, Q1 and Q2. Do

22:13

you buy into that, that the American economy

22:15

is that moldy? I

22:19

mean, you could talk me into something like that. I mean,

22:21

we had sub 1.5% growth in the first quarter. I

22:27

do think that it looks

22:29

like Q2 is running about 2.5% and

22:31

so the average that out, you're

22:35

talking about around 2% for

22:37

the first half of the year. I think

22:39

what's important is that private domestic demand is

22:42

clearly slowing. I mean, one of the reasons

22:44

why there was a little bit of enthusiasm

22:46

in the first quarter is because we

22:49

had such a strong private domestic demand

22:51

backdrop in Q1. But remember

22:53

that a lot of that was premised on

22:55

a 60 basis point increase in residential investment,

22:57

which we know is not going to repeat

23:00

in Q2 and probably not in Q3. And

23:04

so again, I think housing was a

23:06

steady tailwind for GDP growth over the

23:08

last several quarters. That's unlikely to

23:10

be the case through the summer. So

23:13

private domestic demand will look a strong

23:15

and we're having a big inventory restocking

23:17

right now in the second quarter. But

23:20

with orders still kind of sluggish, it's hard

23:22

to see how long that inventory boost

23:24

lasts. And that's going to ultimately

23:27

win manufacturing. So yeah, I

23:29

mean, I think you really have to have quite an

23:31

imagination to say that we're running at 2.5%. I

23:34

think, you know, maybe 1.5% that

23:36

that's possible for a quarter. But

23:40

2% I think is sort of where I'm kind of

23:42

settling out. To hear this from Neil Dudda is extraordinary.

23:44

I mean, I get this from the gloom crew, but

23:47

Mr. Dudda is not the gloom crew.

23:49

No, he's been the opposite of that.

23:51

You know, I think about how last

23:53

summer we got this unexpected lift from

23:55

spending on going on vacation, Taylor Swift

23:57

concerts. Is there anything on the horizon,

23:59

Neil? which you see Americans would be

24:01

more willing to spend freely on? You

24:06

know, Scarlett, I don't think about consumption

24:09

like that. I mean, if it wasn't Taylor

24:11

Swift, maybe you'd have more people at the

24:13

Beyonce Renaissance Tour. I mean, I think people

24:15

go out and they wanna spend money based

24:19

on what their real disposable incomes are doing.

24:22

And fortunately, the last month was a good

24:24

month for real disposable income, but generally speaking,

24:27

what we know is that labor

24:29

market dynamics are consistent with the

24:31

cooling off of income growth. And

24:34

that's going to weigh on consumer spending over time.

24:37

You know, the good news is that inflation should slow, so

24:39

that should kind of keep real incomes on a steady, you

24:43

know, steady here. And that's why I'm, you know,

24:45

I'm not really lighting my hair on fire over

24:47

recession risks. Well, what I'm talking about really is

24:49

just a recalibration of monetary

24:51

policy. No one's talking about a wholesale

24:54

easing. I don't think the economy requires

24:56

that. But

24:58

the Fed does have a role to play. They have

25:00

to play a long year. I mean, they can't just

25:02

keep saying, you know, the

25:05

economy's strong, we don't have to do anything

25:07

when evidence is showing something else. So I

25:09

think they just need to kind of set

25:11

their rhetoric to the incoming data and we'll

25:13

be okay. Neil Dotta, thank you so much

25:16

with Renmack. Just can't say enough about his

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real world folks of Bloomberg's surveillance

27:01

is 20 people, well now

27:03

23, we've got three interns

27:05

helping us out. Piecing the show

27:07

together depends what time. And

27:10

of course with the shock of the debate, literally

27:12

during the debate, our team

27:15

with the leadership of Sparta was blowing up

27:17

the show. And

27:19

the real world folks is I sit on a

27:21

leather couch in my living room and

27:23

Vet Bill's sitting there on my lap and you

27:25

know I'm hanging out with a cell phone. And

27:27

the first email I said was

27:30

get Henrietta. And there

27:32

is only one Henrietta. She

27:35

has the sharpest note, you

27:37

know, with Terry Haynes. Henrietta

27:39

Traeze joining us from VEDA Partners. It

27:42

will be ugly. It

27:44

must be fast. And in

27:47

your list of people to save

27:49

the day, Henrietta Traeze, you have one of

27:51

my favorite people. Governor

27:53

of Rhode Island, Gina Raimondo,

27:56

the former Secretary of Commerce. How

27:59

can Gina Raimondo or others save

28:01

the day for the Democratic Party? Well,

28:05

thank you for that very generous info

28:07

intro, Tom. I appreciate it. I

28:10

was really kind of surprised last

28:12

night as I was speaking with Democratic

28:14

staff throughout the evening. Gina Raimondo's name

28:16

came up in every single conversation repeatedly,

28:19

whether that was campaign operatives sort

28:21

of in the think tanks, whether that

28:23

was folks on the Hill, people

28:25

who've worked on campaigns. She was

28:27

perpetually there. And I think it

28:29

speaks to exactly what you get

28:31

at Commerce. Secretary Raimondo is highly

28:33

competent. She has been tasked with

28:35

probably the largest job in the

28:37

Biden administration this year, which is

28:39

rolling out the combination of the CHIPs

28:42

bill and the Bible Artisan

28:44

Infrastructure Act, not all at the same

28:46

time, but through building out, you know,

28:48

a 200 person team at Commerce

28:50

to get all this across the country, and that

28:52

is no small task. That's what she's undertaken. And

28:55

I think there's a lot of respect for her

28:57

within the Democratic Party, maybe like

28:59

a slightly under the radar possibility.

29:02

You are expert at the

29:04

machinery. If the president

29:06

says, I'm going to not resign,

29:08

let's be clear on that, folks, but just

29:10

step aside, who decides

29:13

who becomes their candidate?

29:16

I think the person that everyone should be watching

29:18

right now is House Representative Jim

29:21

Clyburn. I mean, he is the one who

29:23

orchestrated the win for Biden in South Carolina.

29:25

If y'all remember that primary schedule, I mean,

29:27

Biden was down and out for a while.

29:29

Bernie Sanders, if y'all remember that primary schedule,

29:32

I mean, Biden was down and out for

29:34

a while. Bernie Sanders was the front runner

29:36

in all the betting markets for a while.

29:39

And Joe Biden really needed Jim Clyburn in South

29:41

Carolina to pull it out for him. And one

29:43

of the contingencies was that Kamala Harris needed to

29:45

be the vice president. He plays kingmaker in

29:47

the party. And I would encourage folks to watch

29:49

him most closely in the hours ahead. That

29:52

is super valuable to keep an

29:54

eye on Clyburn. Investors

29:57

and companies know Gino Raimondo because.

29:59

of her role in all that

30:01

important legislation that affects economies, affects

30:04

the markets, but voters don't. Voters

30:06

know Kamala Harris. So

30:09

if something happens and Biden

30:12

steps aside, wouldn't Kamala Harris be kind

30:14

of the default presidential

30:16

candidate? Absolutely, no

30:18

question. And I appreciate you mentioning that

30:20

because I think a lot of

30:23

the street washes over her and

30:25

sort of immediately steps into a Gavin

30:27

Newsom or Gretchen Whitmer type candidate. And

30:29

I think that's a mistake. Kamala Harris

30:31

is the city vice president. She is

30:34

the highest ranking female official in American

30:36

history. She is highly competent

30:38

herself and has served as the United

30:40

States Senator, Attorney General in California. There's

30:42

no reason to skip over her. I

30:45

think it would be a massive affront to

30:47

a huge population of the American public and

30:49

the Democratic voting base if they were to

30:51

supersede her sort of unceremoniously. This

30:54

is gonna be at this point a

30:56

party line decision. The primary season is

30:58

over. So for the most part,

31:00

Democratic voters and people who are in the individual

31:02

states that participate in primaries and caucuses are not

31:04

gonna have a say now. This is a party

31:06

decision. It's my opinion that Kamala has to be

31:09

the front runner. She is the front runner behind

31:11

Biden should he step down. And it would be

31:13

incumbent upon her to decide whether or not she

31:15

wanted to actively bow out to cede room to

31:18

someone else if that's a decision she wants to

31:20

make. I think she's next in line and it

31:22

would be, as I said, incumbent upon her to

31:24

say, you know what? I'm gonna step aside with

31:27

the entirety of the ticket. If Biden's out, I'm

31:29

out and sort of clear the way for the

31:31

other four people I list in my note this

31:33

morning. So the punditry is

31:35

clear in terms of calling yesterday's debate

31:38

a disaster for President Biden. Is the

31:40

Democratic Party united in understanding the debacle

31:42

that was the debate? Are they united

31:44

that something needs to be done? I

31:48

mean, I would say my cell phone

31:50

was a death march of Democrats last

31:52

night. And the kindest thing I could

31:54

say about that is that they were

31:56

united in that assessment. I don't think

31:58

you can talk to any Democrat right

32:00

now. who would tell you that last

32:02

night went well, or that the biggest

32:05

problem with Biden's age is not the

32:07

age itself, it's not the number, it's

32:09

the fact that Donald Trump lied

32:11

30 plus times repeatedly

32:13

on every issue from January 6th

32:15

to abortion. And because of

32:18

Biden's age, he could not combat those

32:20

lies in real time. That's the problem.

32:22

Okay, so what's the timeline here to

32:24

Scarlett's good question? I

32:27

mean, my answer is, in talking to Margaret

32:29

Brennan with CBS, there's a

32:31

timeline which is collegial, oh, Chicago,

32:33

oh wow, August

32:36

will come back from summer, the

32:38

third week is September, baloney. What's

32:41

the Henrietta Trace timeline for

32:43

Friday afternoon, Saturday,

32:46

the Sunday talk

32:48

shows, and you get the

32:50

Mondays. Anybody talking a shorter

32:52

timeline, Henrietta Trace? Yes,

32:54

absolutely. One of my favorite people in the world,

32:57

Kevin Casey, well, shout out, my mentor when I

32:59

was on the Ways and Means Committee, working

33:02

with him on the Ways and Means Committee. The

33:05

first thing to think about is that Democrats

33:07

feel like they have a little bit of

33:09

breathing room. There is a moment here where

33:12

Trump versus the United States is going to

33:14

be decided by the Supreme Court. We're gonna

33:16

find out if the claims of presidential immunity

33:18

are gonna hold or not. That could come

33:20

as early as today within the next couple

33:22

of hours. That is something that immediately gives

33:24

Democrats a sense and a little bit of

33:27

breathing room. On July 11th, Donald Trump is

33:29

gonna be sentenced for the 34 felony guilty

33:31

counts that he received in

33:33

the hush money trial about

33:36

election interference with a porn star in 2016. Then

33:39

you'll have the announcement of Donald Trump's running

33:41

mate, the vice president. So there's gonna be

33:43

other pieces taking up oxygen for the next

33:45

couple of days that Democrats are really hoping

33:47

will clear some of the air and give

33:49

them room to sort of breathe and work

33:52

behind the scenes. I don't expect a solution

33:54

or a conclusion to the, well, he won't be

33:57

step aside question anytime soon. Henry, let me get...

33:59

Henrietta, let me get this in, because we're gonna

34:01

go to Rick Davis on this in a moment,

34:03

folks. Stay with us for the half hour. This

34:05

is gonna be special. But I

34:07

mean, have we ever really tested the 25th

34:09

Amendment before on succession

34:12

and disability of a president? Not

34:17

really, and it's interesting you bring that up.

34:20

I think there's a lot of confusion about this on

34:22

the street. I've been marketing the last couple weeks and

34:24

I spent a lot of time walking through how, it's

34:27

actually not a constitutional crisis to have the vice

34:29

president step in and take place for the president.

34:31

That is literally what the constitution instructs us to

34:33

do. Then you go to the Speaker of the

34:36

House and so on and so forth. So

34:39

it's an issue of relaying

34:41

and sort of socializing the American public to

34:43

sort of what happens next. The good news

34:46

for Democrats here, other than Trump, to be

34:48

on the ticket. So if it's gonna happen,

34:50

this is oddly enough kind of the

34:52

best way. It's been speculated about all year. You can

34:54

see it from the predictive markets. There has been at

34:57

least 20% odds that Biden would

34:59

not be the nominee. I think that's much higher this morning.

35:01

I haven't checked, but I assume it's about 40%. And

35:04

that is going to give you a baseline

35:07

to start with on these sort of otherwise

35:10

wildly extreme circumstances that are pretty normalized

35:12

this year. A lot of the American

35:14

public is socialized to the fact that

35:16

this might happen. Certainly the investment community

35:19

is. Henrietta, just fabulous. Thank you so

35:21

much. Henrietta Trays with the

35:23

Spaveta Partners. This is

35:26

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35:28

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35:30

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