0:00

With wars underway in the Middle

0:02

East and Europe, America's role in

0:04

international affairs is a priority for

0:07

many voters this election. Free

0:09

free Palestine! Free

0:11

free Palestine! Some 40

0:14

percent of Americans think foreign

0:16

policy should be a primary

0:18

issue in this election. That's according

0:20

to an AP News poll, and that is

0:22

up from last year. The two

0:24

major presidential candidates have laid out

0:27

very different visions for how the

0:29

U.S. should interact with the rest

0:31

of the world. Here's Donald Trump

0:33

from his inauguration speech in 2017. We

0:36

assembled here today are

0:38

issuing a new decree to be

0:40

heard in every city, in every

0:43

foreign capital, and in every

0:45

hall of power. From

0:48

this day forward, a

0:50

new vision will govern our

0:52

land. From this day forward,

0:56

it's going to be

0:59

only America first. America

1:02

first. Joe Biden,

1:04

meanwhile, used his inauguration speech as

1:07

a direct rebuttal to Trump, making

1:09

it clear that on his watch,

1:11

America would once again be a

1:14

leader in international diplomacy. We

1:16

will repair our alliances and

1:18

engage with the world once again, not

1:21

to meet yesterday's challenges, but

1:24

today's and tomorrow's challenges. And

1:28

we'll lead not merely

1:30

by the example of our power, but

1:32

by the power of our example. At

1:35

the time of his inauguration, Biden's

1:37

biggest foreign policy challenge was getting

1:40

the United States out of Afghanistan.

1:42

But the chaotic withdrawal from that

1:44

country was criticized by both Republicans

1:47

and Democrats, and it angered allies.

1:49

Now Biden is juggling Russia's invasion

1:52

of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war.

1:54

Both conflicts are politically divisive, something

1:56

Trump has tried to use to

1:59

his advantage. Here he

2:01

is in November speaking to Univision. Three

2:03

years ago, we had no problems. We had no

2:05

inflation. We had no Ukraine

2:07

problem. We had no Israel

2:10

problem. We had no problems. Biden

2:12

has been pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza, following

2:15

global outcry over the deaths

2:17

of thousands of Palestinians. But Biden has

2:19

also made clear since the Hamas attack

2:21

on October 7th that

2:23

he supports Israel and will continue

2:25

to do so. So

2:28

in this moment, we must

2:30

be crystal clear. We

2:32

stand with Israel. We

2:35

stand with Israel. Consider

2:38

this. Trump has signaled that in

2:40

a second term, he would make big changes

2:43

to U.S. relationships with allies and

2:46

pull back on U.S. commitments of

2:48

global defense. Biden has signaled

2:50

his commitment to fight global threats

2:52

to peace and freedom, and

2:54

he's vowed he would continue to help

2:57

Ukraine and Israel. How

2:59

much will their opposing views

3:01

influence how Americans vote in

3:03

November? Coming

3:06

up, NPR's Greg Myrie and Franco

3:08

Ordonez on how Trump and Biden's

3:10

outlooks on international events could

3:12

impact the U.S. elections and how

3:14

America is viewed in the world.

3:16

From NPR, I'm

3:19

Mary Louise Kelly. Thank

3:47

you. books

4:00

are sold. This message

4:02

comes from NPR sponsor Charles

4:05

Schwab with its original podcast

4:07

On Investing. Each week, hosts

4:09

Lizanne Saunders, Schwab's chief investment

4:11

strategist, and Kathy Jones, Schwab's

4:14

chief fixed income strategist, along

4:16

with their guests, analyze economic

4:18

developments and bring context to

4:21

conversations around stocks, fixed income,

4:23

the economy, and more. Download

4:26

the latest episode and

4:28

subscribe at schwab.com/On Investing

4:30

or wherever you get your

4:32

podcasts. It's

4:40

Consider This from NPR. America

4:42

is facing two very different futures

4:45

on the world stage under a

4:47

potential second term for Biden or

4:49

Trump. Schwab promises

4:51

to fundamentally reevaluate the NATO

4:53

alliance, reshape global trade, overhaul

4:55

the Pentagon, State Department, and

4:58

intelligence agencies. He has

5:00

largely avoided explaining how he would

5:02

handle the conflicts in Europe and the Middle

5:04

East, yet says he can settle the

5:06

war in Ukraine in 24 hours. What

5:09

is clear is that Trump plans to pick

5:12

up where he left off during his first

5:14

term and then push farther.

5:16

President Piers Franco Ordonez took a closer

5:18

look. Speaking

5:22

at a campaign rally in South Carolina,

5:24

former President Donald Trump recalled a European

5:26

leader asking if the U.S. would defend

5:29

the country if they were invaded by

5:31

Russia, even if they had

5:33

not met NATO spending targets. No, I would

5:35

not protect you. In fact, I would encourage

5:37

them to do whatever the hell they want.

5:40

You got to pay. You got to

5:42

pay your bills. It was a stunning

5:44

admission that was seen as a shot across

5:46

the bow to European allies and the foreign

5:48

policy establishment. The statement was less about the

5:50

threat that allowing Russia to do whatever

5:53

it wanted would mean for the

5:55

countries involved and more about what

5:57

it says about Trump's view of

5:59

alliances. Yevo Doleiter served as

6:01

the U.S. ambassador to NATO in the

6:03

Obama administration, so it makes sense he'd

6:05

be critical. But his larger

6:07

point, which is being echoed across party

6:10

lines, is that Trump is reducing the

6:12

importance of a 75-year alliance to the

6:14

U.S. being an army for hire, and

6:17

that NATO isn't something that is

6:19

fundamental to U.S. security. A Trump

6:21

return to the Oval Office means

6:23

that an alliance like NATO, which

6:26

is built fundamentally on trust, will

6:28

suffer because people will not be

6:30

able to trust Donald Trump to

6:32

defend them if and when the

6:34

emergency arises. Trump's dissatisfaction with

6:36

NATO is nothing new. He's been

6:39

critical of Western allies and cozied

6:41

up to authoritarian leaders like Russia's

6:43

Vladimir Putin and Hungary's Viktor Orban.

6:46

From the campaign trail, Trump's raised concerns

6:48

that the U.S. is paying too much

6:51

to support Ukraine. He's promised again to

6:53

withdraw from the Paris climate accord. And

6:55

he's floated the idea of a 10 percent

6:58

tax on imports from all countries, and a

7:00

much higher tax on China. Is China

7:02

eating our lunch right now? Foreign

7:05

policy veterans like John Simon, who served

7:07

as ambassador to the African Union in

7:09

the Bush administration, take issue with Trump's

7:12

approach to Russia and Ukraine, and

7:14

worry he'll dismantle key tenants of

7:17

American foreign policy, like standing up

7:19

to totalitarian aggression. My

7:21

great fear is that a second Trump

7:23

administration would have all the hallmarks of

7:25

his first administration without any of the

7:27

guardrails that were provided by the more

7:29

experienced foreign policy folks who were around

7:32

him. He would be like a child

7:34

without any parents to stop him

7:36

from doing really bad things. In

7:38

Europe, the idea of Trump's return

7:40

brings a mix of excitement, resignation

7:42

and fear. Last time

7:45

round, actually, Trump had a

7:47

fairly unifying effect on Europe.

7:49

Natalie Tocey, a former top EU

7:51

foreign policy adviser, says leaders rallied

7:54

together during his first administration, as

7:56

the U.S. seemed to check out

7:58

from the transatlantic relationship. But the

8:00

political landscape in Europe has changed.

8:02

And she says a second potential

8:04

Trump term has some keeping their

8:07

heads in the sand, unable or

8:09

unwilling to face that prospect. So

8:11

it's more like, you know, this kind of fear

8:13

of something that is happening and you think it's

8:15

going to happen and you're more and more convinced

8:17

that it will happen. But it's so scary that

8:19

you just prefer not to think about it. European

8:21

parliamentary elections this week that saw

8:23

a rise in far right parties

8:26

further worry more establishment leaders. She

8:28

says Trump's election could inflame those divisions.

8:31

We may see a rather unseemly

8:33

show of European leaders kind of rushing

8:35

into Washington to kiss the ring. Without

8:38

mentioning Trump's name, Biden nodded to

8:40

some of those concerns while traveling

8:42

in France last week for the

8:44

80th anniversary of D-Day. Isolation

8:47

was not the answer eight years ago and

8:50

is not the answer today. Trump

8:53

has dismissed the criticism blaming Biden

8:55

and the foreign policy establishment for

8:57

creating a more dangerous world. Brian

9:00

Lanza, a former Trump aide who remains close

9:02

to the campaign, says Trump

9:04

was right to challenge NATO members to

9:07

step up their defense contributions. Now

9:09

Trump feels validated. The criticisms that

9:11

exist from the foreign policy community,

9:14

those are criticisms because they

9:16

don't want change. Of course, it's

9:18

impossible to predict Trump's exact policies,

9:20

which has only increased feelings of

9:23

uncertainty. Heather Conley, who worked

9:25

on European issues in the Bush State Department,

9:27

says it's important to remember that many of

9:29

the policies will be the same, whether it's

9:32

Biden or Trump. I

9:34

often tell European colleagues there

9:36

is more continuity to U.S.

9:38

policy than we sometimes suggest

9:41

because we personalize this and

9:43

these personalities certainly have different

9:45

approaches to allies very specifically.

9:47

She points to similarities in their trade

9:50

agenda and how Biden maintained the Abraham

9:52

Accords, a key Trump victory. Both

9:55

leaders kept a strong relationship with

9:57

Israel and a hawkish approach

9:59

to China. — Underneath, sometimes the

10:01

policy can look awfully similar. —

10:03

Despite the differences in personalities, she

10:05

says they're going to have to deal with the substance

10:08

of those policies, regardless of who is

10:10

in the White House. Franco

10:12

Ordonas, NPR News. —

10:14

Okay, turning now to President Biden, who

10:16

within months of taking over the

10:19

White House, ended America's longest war

10:21

by pulling U.S. troops out of

10:23

Afghanistan. Since then, two new

10:25

wars have erupted, sparked by

10:28

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, 2022, and

10:30

the October 7th Hamas attack in Israel in 2023. And

10:37

here's Greg Myrie explains how

10:39

these wars are defining Biden's

10:41

presidency and complicating his reelection

10:43

bid. — When Ukraine came under

10:46

Russian assault, President Biden's response was

10:48

swift. — I think

10:50

Biden surprised the world. He certainly

10:52

surprised the Russians by his

10:54

decision in 2022

10:57

to create a broad

10:59

democratic alliance to defend Ukraine. —

11:02

And Applebaum is an author and historian

11:04

who writes extensively on this war. And

11:07

in the Israel-Hamas fight, Matthew Cronin

11:09

at the Atlantic Council gives

11:12

Biden high marks for jumping in

11:14

immediately to back Israel. —

11:16

I think the Biden administration's instinct right

11:18

after the October 7th attack was the

11:20

correct one to have Israel's back in

11:23

its skull to eliminate Hamas. — Both

11:25

wars have their own distinct dynamics. And

11:28

like most conflicts, the longer they grind

11:30

on, the messier and more complicated they

11:32

become. Biden's backing of

11:34

Ukraine still has broad support in the

11:37

U.S. and the West. However,

11:39

his embrace of Israel faces

11:41

widespread criticism, mostly over the

11:43

high death toll for Palestinian

11:45

civilians. Stephen Walt is

11:48

a professor of international relations at

11:50

Harvard. — The United

11:52

States has provided unconditional support

11:54

for an Israeli approach that

11:56

is both unlikely to eradicate

11:59

Hamas and has done enormous

12:01

humanitarian damage. Biden is calling

12:03

for a ceasefire in Gaza

12:06

and has publicly chastised Israel

12:08

over Palestinian civilian deaths. Yet

12:11

he still supports Israel's effort to fully

12:13

defeat Hamas and has stepped up

12:15

U.S. military assistance. In

12:18

Ukraine, Biden remains wary of provoking

12:20

a Russian escalation and repeatedly sets limits

12:22

on the kinds of weapons sent

12:24

to Ukraine and how they can be

12:27

used. There's been an indecision.

12:29

Again, Matthew Kronig. Should we

12:32

provide tanks? First the

12:34

answer was no, then it was yes.

12:36

Should we provide aircraft? First the answer

12:38

was no, then it was yes. Should

12:40

we allow Ukraine to strike into Russian

12:42

territory? First it was no, then it

12:44

was yes. And Applebaum says Biden should

12:46

say explicitly how he wants the war

12:48

in Ukraine to end. I would

12:50

like him to say clearly that he

12:52

believes the Ukrainians can win the war

12:55

and that he understands that a defeat

12:57

of Russia is the only way the

12:59

war can end permanently. In

13:01

contrast, Stephen Walt says Biden has

13:03

been too willing to go along

13:06

with Ukraine's goal of driving out

13:08

all Russian troops, a goal Walt

13:10

finds unrealistic. We've let Ukraine basically

13:12

determine the war aims. And

13:15

so the United States, you know, has

13:17

not put any meaningful pressure on Ukraine

13:19

to cut a diplomatic deal. And

13:21

I think is unfortunately presiding

13:23

over a long war of attrition

13:26

that is doing enormous harm to

13:28

Ukraine. In short, there's no way

13:30

Biden can please everyone. He's

13:33

popular among the Ukrainian and Israeli

13:35

publics for his strong support. His

13:38

relationship with the leaders of those countries

13:40

is trickier. Biden and Ukraine's

13:43

President Volodymyr Zelensky met in Paris

13:45

on Friday. Biden announced

13:47

more weapons for Ukraine and

13:49

Zelensky expressed his gratitude. But

13:51

Zelensky has also signaled frustration with

13:54

Biden's policy of placing limits

13:56

on U.S. weapons. Again,

13:58

and Applebaum. Clearly

14:00

Zelensky and Biden have different goals. You

14:03

know, Biden is fighting an election. Zelensky

14:05

is fighting a war. They have

14:08

a different timeline. They have a different sense of

14:10

urgency. And I think it's fully

14:12

understandable that there can be misunderstandings. Meanwhile,

14:15

Biden has a long history of

14:17

friction with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin

14:19

Netanyahu, and the Israeli

14:21

leader has often defied Biden's wishes,

14:23

says Stephen Walt. The

14:26

Biden team believe that by embracing

14:28

and supporting Netanyahu, they would have

14:31

influence over his actions, and that

14:33

influence seems to be paltry at

14:35

best. As Biden faces a reelection

14:38

battle against Donald Trump, the conventional

14:40

wisdom is that issues abroad rarely,

14:42

if ever, determine a presidential contest.

14:46

However, as Matthew Cronig notes,

14:48

the Middle East war is

14:50

provoking strong emotions and ongoing

14:52

protests against Israeli military action

14:54

and Biden's support for Israel.

14:57

And so I think Biden wants to get these

14:59

conflicts to die down before

15:01

the election. President Biden hasn't and

15:03

insists he won't send U.S. troops

15:05

into the conflict zones in the

15:07

Middle East or Ukraine. Yet

15:10

he still faces tough decisions, says Stephen

15:12

Walt. The danger is

15:15

that you can get dragged into these

15:17

things the longer they continue. And I

15:20

will give Biden credit for

15:22

having resisted that temptation up

15:25

until now, remains to be

15:27

seen if he will continue to resist it

15:29

if the situation gets worse. And

15:32

both wars are sure to deliver more

15:34

surprises. Greg Myrie, NPR

15:37

News, Washington. This

15:39

episode was produced by Erica Ryan,

15:41

Megan Lim and Karen Zamora with

15:44

audio engineering by Ted Miebain. It

15:46

was edited by Jeanette Woods, Andrew Sussman

15:49

and Megan Prattz. Our

15:51

executive producer is Sami Yinnigan. And

15:54

in case you haven't heard, you can

15:56

now enjoy consider this in newsletter form,

15:58

just like here. on the podcast, we

16:00

will help you break down a major

16:02

story of the day. But you

16:04

will also get to know our producers and our

16:06

hosts and we'll share some moments of joy

16:08

from the All Things Considered team. You

16:11

can sign up at npr.org slash

16:13

Consider This newsletter. It's

16:21

Consider This from NPR. I'm Mary

16:23

Louise Kelly. Last

16:26

year, over 20,000 people joined

16:28

the Body Electric Study to

16:30

change their sedentary, screen-filled lives.

16:32

And guess what? We saw amazing

16:35

effects. Now you can try

16:37

NPR's Body Electric Challenge yourself.

16:40

Listen to updated and new episodes

16:42

wherever you get your podcasts. Support

16:47

for NPR and the following message come

16:49

from IXL Online. Is your child asking

16:52

questions on their homework you don't feel

16:54

equipped to answer? IXL Learning uses advanced

16:56

algorithms to give the right help to

16:58

each kid, no matter the age or

17:00

personality. One subscription gets you everything. One

17:02

site for all the kids in your

17:05

home, pre-K to 12th grade. Make an

17:07

impact on your child's learning. Get IXL

17:09

now. And NPR listeners can get an

17:11

exclusive 20% off IXL

17:13

membership when they sign up

17:15

today at ixl.com/ NPR. This

17:20

message comes from NPR sponsor, Viore.

17:22

Jump into a new perspective on

17:24

performance apparel. Viore makes products

17:26

that stand the test of time

17:29

and hope to inspire others to

17:31

live vibrant, healthy lives, empowering your

17:33

best life in clothing that can

17:35

be worn for just about any

17:38

activity from running to yoga. Visit

17:40

viore.com/NPR to receive 20% off

17:42

your first purchase and enjoy free shipping

17:45

on any US orders over. versatility

17:48

of Viore clothing.