0:00

You're listening to an Airwave

0:02

Media Podcast. K90,

0:07

where is he? Probably

0:10

20 feet from our wingtip. So

0:12

he's inside of our wingtip. We

0:15

began this series with a near

0:17

disastrous event in 2001, when a

0:19

US spy plane collided with a

0:21

Chinese fighter jet over the South

0:23

China Sea. Where's that bomb? It's

0:25

on that one. Where you got the bomb? The

0:28

US spy plane made an unauthorized

0:30

emergency landing on Chinese territory.

0:34

That incident ended with some

0:36

impressive diplomacy. But

0:38

as we've discussed throughout this series, I

0:41

question whether we'd get the same

0:43

results today. Nowhere are

0:45

tensions between the US and China

0:48

more clear than on Taiwan. More

0:51

than any single issue, Taiwan has long been

0:53

at the center of tension between the United

0:55

States and Beijing. Some

0:57

experts warning that Beijing's use of force to

0:59

claim what it sees as its rightful territory

1:01

is drawn closer. President Biden

1:04

is making clear just how far he'd go

1:06

to defend Taiwan in an attack from China.

1:09

Would US forces defend the island? Yes,

1:11

if in fact there was an unprecedented

1:13

attack. I

1:17

first went to Taiwan in late 2022. My

1:21

first impression was of a hardworking place.

1:24

Every young person I met seemed focused

1:26

on getting ahead in the tech industry.

1:29

Taiwan is after all the headquarters

1:31

of the world's most important and

1:33

valuable semiconductor factory TSMC.

1:37

It's strategically vital for both the

1:39

US and China. One

1:42

person I met there was Shaoru Shirley Lin.

1:45

Shirley is the author of

1:47

the recent book, Taiwan's China

1:49

Dilemma. And as a

1:51

young girl growing up in Taiwan in

1:54

the 1970s, she experienced

1:56

what she describes as a

1:58

low-lying but brittle tension. beneath

2:00

every ordinary moment, even

2:03

at grade school. Since I was a kid,

2:05

the threat of war was always there, all

2:07

of my life. She's talking of the

2:10

threat of mainland China forcibly

2:12

taking control of Taiwan. Emergency

2:15

drills at school were

2:17

a regular occurrence. We had these

2:19

wooden tables and we

2:21

knew exactly what to do. We need to duck

2:23

under the desk and we would do

2:26

it a couple of times every week. The

2:28

idea was that we had to be ready,

2:30

we had to defend ourselves. While

2:32

kids in Taiwan today are not still

2:35

practicing duck and cover drills under their

2:37

desks, as you've heard, the

2:39

threat from mainland China is

2:41

more intense than ever. Economically,

2:44

China is Taiwan's most

2:46

important partner and biggest threat. And

2:49

this is a dilemma that the Taiwanese people

2:51

have to face every day. I'm

3:01

Jane Pirlas and this is Face Off, a

3:04

podcast about the dynamics in the

3:06

US-China relationship. And in

3:08

this final episode, we'll look at how

3:10

this tiny island, 100

3:13

miles off the coast of mainland

3:15

China encapsulates so many of the

3:17

issues we've discussed throughout this series.

3:20

And of course, Rana Mitter will

3:22

join me to tie it all together.

3:29

Before we jump in, it's important to

3:32

note that a new president, Lei Ching-tai,

3:34

has just taken the reins in

3:36

Taiwan. He's part of a

3:38

progressive movement that's been taking hold in Taiwan

3:41

for some time. His leadership

3:43

is likely to spark even more

3:45

tensions between the island and mainland

3:47

China. Speaking

3:50

with me today is Lyle Goldstein.

3:52

He's a military strategist and a

3:54

professor at Brown University. He

3:57

keeps a close watch on the Taiwan

3:59

Strait. Our conversation

4:02

went to some surprisingly dark

4:04

places. I began

4:06

by asking him to explain

4:08

why the US and China

4:10

are so fixated on Taiwan.

4:15

This island, the beautiful island,

4:17

as it's called, really

4:20

has been at the heart of US-China

4:22

relations for really going back to 1949.

4:26

This has never gone away. My

4:28

view is that from the Chinese

4:30

perspective, this is kind of how

4:32

they have constructed their

4:35

national ethos, going back to the

4:37

foundation of the party. They see

4:39

themselves as liberating China, as

4:41

unifying China. From the US perspective,

4:44

we're very proud of our long relationship

4:46

with Taiwan. We've seen it flourish, a

4:49

transition to democracy, some in the realist

4:51

camp. I call myself a

4:53

realist, but I don't agree with this view.

4:56

Many of you, Taiwan is the cork in

4:58

the Chinese bottle. That is, if you're going

5:00

to prevent China from vastly expanding its power

5:02

across the Pacific, that this is where you

5:04

need to draw the line. I don't agree with

5:07

that, but that's the argument that's quite fashionable in

5:09

Washington. The idea is

5:11

that Taiwan might be the first

5:14

step to China doing other things

5:16

in Asia if it was allowed

5:18

to, quote-unquote, conquer Taiwan. Exactly.

5:21

I don't agree with that, but some people call

5:23

it the canary in the coal mine. This is

5:26

the one where China will

5:28

take its major first step in

5:30

a pattern of aggression as

5:32

they see it. They fear that

5:34

this is just the first step

5:36

and that it will encroach on

5:38

Japan, on Philippines,

5:42

both of which are US allies. People

5:45

spin out these scenarios. I

5:47

don't see this pattern. I

5:50

think Taiwan is a kind of peculiar

5:54

situation. the

6:00

previous leaders of Communist China,

6:02

they've all insisted that Taiwan

6:04

is a sovereign part of

6:06

China. Why is Taiwan

6:08

considered a sovereign part of China? I

6:11

mean this goes back hundreds of years and I

6:13

won't walk you through all the history. China

6:16

did you know rule the island formally

6:18

for a couple of hundred years until

6:20

Japan took it. Now Japan at that point took it

6:23

in 1895 if I remember correct

6:25

after a decisive

6:27

war in which they defeated China

6:30

handily and at that point they took other

6:32

parts of China and that was really the

6:34

beginning of a very brutal

6:36

pattern of aggression by

6:38

Japan in which they came to occupy

6:40

large portions of China and committed you

6:43

know really terrible atrocities. So

6:45

in the Chinese mind they are addressing

6:47

the wrongs of that period and that

6:49

is why that's why I think a

6:51

lot of Americans don't understand this link

6:54

between a Japanese aggression and the

6:57

sense that Taiwan must come back to China

6:59

that it really is about addressing those wrongs.

7:01

So again that's a Chinese perspective Americans

7:03

tend to dismiss all of

7:06

this history but in the Chinese mind it

7:08

is a part of correcting

7:11

those historical issues. What do

7:13

you think is Xi Jinping's

7:15

timeline for what he calls

7:17

unification? Well it's a big unknown

7:19

there's quite a bit of speculation of

7:21

some kind of timeline in the

7:24

kind of 2027 time frame you

7:26

know but on the other side plenty

7:28

of specialists have pointed out

7:30

that we have no evidence of any kind

7:33

of firm timeline. I

7:35

think there's a broader sense that Xi

7:37

Jinping would like to accomplish this on

7:39

his watch that he said quite specifically

7:41

that this is not a problem that

7:43

can be handed down to the next

7:45

generation but somehow this

7:48

problem has been handed down and down

7:50

and down and there does seem to

7:52

be significant patience and it's to state

7:54

the obvious you know this would cost

7:56

China immensely. There are definite reasons why

7:59

China would let's say

8:01

hold its fire and remain patient and we

8:03

will all hope that's the case but I

8:05

must say I am quite concerned we could

8:08

face a near-term crisis or even a war.

8:10

You know the Chinese military very well

8:12

you've been to China many times you

8:15

speak Chinese you've spoken to people in

8:17

the Chinese military do you

8:19

think the Chinese military the People's

8:22

Liberation Army PLA as it's known

8:24

do you think they're in sync

8:26

with Xi Jinping on

8:28

his plans for Taiwan I would

8:31

go a step further Jane and say that

8:33

they they are pushing the matter from what

8:35

I can tell now that's sort of in

8:37

a more general sense I think there he

8:39

does feel pressure from the PLA on the

8:42

other hand it's been pointed out by military

8:44

theorists that militaries like to

8:46

prepare for war so they don't necessarily like

8:48

to start to actually execute them that could

8:50

be the case in China here where they're

8:52

they're constantly saying this might happen and they

8:54

have to get ready for it but they're

8:56

not eager to pull the trigger honestly as

8:59

I watch this and I do watch it very carefully

9:01

I have noticed in

9:03

the past maybe the past

9:06

six months that the PLA

9:08

sources seem to be lowering

9:11

their level of rhetoric on this which

9:14

is somewhat encouraging it

9:17

is possible that that could be part of

9:19

a kind of strategy a ruse yeah

9:22

exactly as Sunza said all war

9:24

is deception so before one would

9:26

strike you would want to lower the

9:29

threat perception I mean it does

9:31

seem extraordinary that Chinese military is even

9:33

ahead of Xi Jinping and itching to

9:36

go for Taiwan because after all they

9:38

haven't fought a war basically

9:40

since 1949 when they communist forces

9:42

took over the mainland they invaded

9:44

Vietnam in 1979 they were there

9:46

for a couple of weeks and

9:48

they basically had to retreat because

9:50

they were clobbered by the Vietnamese

9:53

so what's their experience

9:56

well in that case Vietnam had a

9:58

very combat experience Army. I've

10:00

seen some PLA sources from the Chinese

10:02

military talk about something they call peace

10:04

disease Which means they're very

10:07

concerned that their army You know precisely what

10:09

you just said that their military has not

10:11

been in combat and it's a problem But

10:13

why would they want to try it out and

10:15

such a huge adventure is taking Taiwan

10:18

and possibly confronting the Americans quite

10:20

true There's substantial evidence that they

10:22

realized they have an issue here

10:24

on the other hand we should say that you

10:27

know, we might suggest that the US military

10:29

for example has a lot of combat experience,

10:31

but combat experience fighting in

10:33

Afghanistan or you know Iraq or something

10:35

like that would be very very

10:37

different than what we call a you know

10:39

A war against a peer competitor and you

10:41

know I worked for the US Navy for

10:43

20 years and I can tell you the US Navy has not

10:45

been in intensive combat

10:47

since 1945

10:50

saying that that one side of this has combat experience

10:52

the others Doesn't is

10:54

I think not not quite accurate

10:56

at the same time the US

10:59

is in the last few years

11:01

It's become quite concerned because they

11:03

see the Chinese military growing the

11:05

Chinese Navy is now bigger more

11:07

ships than The United

11:10

States that doesn't necessarily mean more skills, but

11:12

more ships and the air force is getting

11:14

bigger by the day so

11:18

There is a trend now the United

11:20

States trying to beef up Taiwan's military

11:23

We hear about the United States Engaging

11:25

in a porcupine strategy with Taiwan. What

11:28

what does that mean? You're

11:31

smiling a Friend

11:33

of mine, I think coined this phrase. Who is

11:35

that? Can I ask? He's

11:38

a submariner actually William Murray He

11:41

wrote a very foreign article naval war college

11:43

review which is cited all the time where

11:45

he argued that Taiwan has a completely wrongheaded

11:47

strategy buying Nice

11:50

fighter aircraft and and frigates and so forth and

11:52

that from the United States. Yes So yes, the

11:54

United States was making a lot of money off

11:56

these sophisticated Items,

11:59

but. He pointed out that

12:01

these aircraft and ships were likely to

12:03

be lost in the first hours of

12:05

a campaign. That what does that mean?

12:07

What is your friend recommending and has

12:10

recommended and what is being put in

12:12

place? A lot of this comes down

12:14

to kind of much show. lower budget

12:16

systems are focusing on no land warfare.

12:18

Time once a tiny island and you focus on

12:20

land. War says well among the services

12:23

and I won. It does seem

12:25

like the army actually the ground

12:27

forces have been neglected but I

12:29

mean most assessments think that the

12:31

Chinese will quite easily destroy those

12:33

to Taiwan, navy and airforce so

12:35

it will come down to the

12:37

army tried him resists you know

12:39

Chinese landings and we've seen in

12:41

Ukraine. I think that the you

12:43

Know armies remain a highly relevant

12:45

to to reach out to. Be

12:47

saying is that the

12:50

American ships and aircraft

12:52

at add descending Taiwan.

12:54

Spilled could be ruined, could

12:56

be. Put. Out of action very quickly

12:58

by the Chinese, and therefore. Hold on. I

13:00

don't think China would attack us assets. Off

13:02

the bat. I think they'll be that very

13:05

reluctant to do that. There were like to

13:07

give the skiff Washington and out and say

13:09

we we're going to take Taiwan and you

13:12

should stay out and and they will make

13:14

they'll put the U S in the situation

13:16

of having to fire the first shot. There

13:18

are quite quite certain of that. Until

13:21

would be up to the the Oval Office and

13:23

that and depending on to decide whether to go

13:25

on the A. Really? whether

13:27

to get involved at all. And

13:29

and that would be a very hard

13:32

decision for for an American president. You

13:35

have said that they would be huge casualties is

13:37

if the decision was to go ahead. A

13:39

military predictions about wars are full of fab

13:41

mistakes. If Ukraine has taught us nothing else

13:44

I think it is is is also that.

13:46

However, whereas I read for example some of

13:48

these were games you know a long history

13:50

of word games that have come into the

13:52

public realm. A war game after war games

13:55

seem to suggest that. Time. It

13:57

tends to win these games. My

14:00

sense is that casualties could be very

14:02

high. Door and picture for

14:04

us about how the casualties, what happens

14:07

to American assets. You know that

14:09

is Us carrier as about five thousand sailors

14:11

and then even let's see if I just

14:13

take this game for together by C S

14:15

I S which is a leading Us think

14:18

tank and had pulled together the right experts.

14:20

They said that's within the first couple of

14:22

turns or for it first few days of

14:24

any a conflict in almost all their interactions

14:27

of their a game that that you know

14:29

this is a twenty twenty three game that

14:31

they would lose or to us aircraft here

14:33

So you know we can think that in

14:35

the first few days we could be losing.

14:38

Our well over ten thousand young Americans

14:40

said sounds incredible the that that occurred

14:42

in almost every iteration. That should be

14:44

incredibly disturbing of because this war could

14:46

go on for years. You know you

14:49

could involve a nuclear exchange. Also, I

14:51

think we we need to say that

14:53

up front to. Nuclear. Powers

14:55

have never gone to war to. Have

14:57

a war of the Taiwan go on

14:59

for as long as you say. Given

15:02

that it's an island and the data,

15:04

twenty three million people there and those

15:06

people have to eat. That. Assist

15:08

to size imagination to know had twenty three

15:10

million people in an island and to live

15:13

through this kind of war. Fogarty.

15:15

Point that out because I think I'm.

15:18

A. Lot of defense analyst think that

15:20

rather than an invasion that the

15:22

most likely scenario is blockade. Ah

15:24

and and a blockade would very

15:27

much involve. you know. The

15:29

Food and Energy Security of the People

15:31

on Taiwan Or I would just like

15:33

to make one more common on the

15:36

nuclear issue because I feel strongly that

15:38

of defense analyst partly out of convenience

15:40

like to put that aside because it's

15:42

such an unpredictable factor. But it will

15:44

say I've just seen some new reports

15:46

circulating in Washington that show a new.

15:48

Step in this consideration of the nuclear

15:50

factor in it. I was arrow and

15:52

these reports openly advocate for Us first

15:55

use of nuclear weapons and a talents

15:57

narrow in the logic is as follows

15:59

is that. I know. As. A

16:01

More force. Our navy and airforce remain

16:03

bigger, but the amount of force that

16:05

can be point against the island in

16:08

a short time times conventional power vastly

16:10

outweighed what you know, the amount of

16:12

Us force that can be committed. So

16:14

the only way to effectively destroyed China's

16:16

invasion is through the use of nuclear

16:18

weapons. Now if that makes you recoil

16:21

incompatible, recoil, a break out in a

16:23

sweat and so forth, Join the club.

16:25

I'm very upset to read this and

16:27

I think this is lee of coming

16:29

from of the Atlantic Council. Just put

16:31

out to reports like that in in September and

16:33

November. Two thousand Twenty three I'm I'm very disturbed

16:36

to read this. I think percent A written. By

16:38

as for the Pentagon officials, a little are

16:40

they written by. The or I'm in

16:42

His people are very well informed their their

16:44

insiders and I have to believe therefore that

16:47

this is probably close to real Us policy.

16:49

So and what that means not trying to

16:51

ruin your day or. Give

16:54

you nightmares. By this means that

16:56

the idea of nuclear war over

16:58

Taiwan. Is for real and. Wondering

17:00

why there hasn't been. Ah, more written

17:02

about this. I haven't seen this in the

17:04

mainstream press flies that I think frankly, we

17:07

have to. Major. In

17:09

catastrophic wars underway in Gaza and Ukraine and

17:11

and people are totally focused on that in,

17:13

I hope this will get more attention for

17:15

my part. I would like to see yes

17:18

sir, United States go toward a no first

17:20

use policy were we to say unequivocally that

17:22

when asked when used to fire weapons in

17:24

any of these situations unless another power does

17:27

first by the way, China does have it

17:29

no first use policy. I must say that

17:31

in these recent Atlantic Council report, they said

17:33

that the United States should negotiate an agreement

17:35

with Taiwan that we might use nuclear weapons

17:38

against. i want to destroy or these

17:40

the chinese amphibious force coming ashore on

17:42

a and again this is extremely disturbing

17:44

but can you imagine as having this

17:46

conversation with i once you know yes

17:49

for math to use nuclear weapons against

17:51

the highlights and in their that's their

17:53

defense the authors of the atlantic council

17:55

report say well this as we had

17:57

similar agreements in the cold war with

18:00

West Germany that we would strike parts

18:02

of German territory

18:04

if necessary. Well, Taiwan has a

18:06

new leader, President

18:09

Lai. What is his take

18:11

as far as you understand it? We're

18:13

all kind of standing by to get

18:15

more details on President

18:18

Lai's outlook. I'm hoping

18:20

he'll you know follow President Lai's footsteps

18:22

and take a kind of moderate approach.

18:25

But I must say I read in the New York Times the

18:28

day that Lai was elected that this

18:31

very senior official advising

18:34

Lai was saying there's no need for

18:36

Taiwan to declare independence because they're already

18:38

independent. And I mean, you know, well,

18:41

I mean, as you can imagine

18:43

that will not go down well in

18:45

Beijing. I'm very worried Jane. I

18:48

mean, I think that... Worried in on

18:50

what specific in the... Well, I was

18:52

told very clearly by I won't name

18:54

names, but on my last trip to

18:56

China, in Shanghai, a

18:58

very senior strategist said to me, you

19:00

know, if the DPP wins again, that

19:02

means war. Well,

19:04

I think China's got a few

19:06

economic problems on its hands. So maybe that's going

19:09

to play in favor of a bit of delay.

19:11

Yes, I hope that was just bluster, but I

19:14

don't know, you know, I think I'm somebody who thinks we

19:16

need to take Chinese at their word. So to

19:18

turn away a little bit from that

19:20

really grim outlook that sort of makes

19:22

my stomach churn, to be honest. And mine

19:25

too. Let's talk about the

19:27

Taiwanese. Most people in

19:29

Taiwan, the 23 million people in

19:32

Taiwan prefer keeping status quo, an

19:34

ambiguous situation between China and the

19:36

United States. Exactly. A decent

19:39

majority support that view. And then

19:42

a minority, you know, possibly I think 30%

19:46

favor a more robust step toward

19:48

independence and then a rather small

19:50

minority, I think 10% or

19:53

less favor unification

19:55

with the mainland. So

19:57

yeah, people, not surprisingly,

19:59

They are happy with the status

20:01

quo in the sense that they want to

20:04

maintain their autonomy. They

20:06

also favor peace. So I mean, if you

20:08

will, they would like to have their cake

20:10

and eat it too. But

20:12

I mean, I will emphasize the role of

20:15

two kind of events in the last five

20:17

years. One is, of course, what happened in

20:19

Hong Kong, where Hong Kong's

20:21

autonomy was curtailed. That certainly has inspired

20:24

a lot of people to be more

20:26

active safeguarding Taiwan's autonomy.

20:29

But the Ukraine war also had a major

20:31

effect. And that is also inspiring

20:33

Taiwanese, I think, to take

20:35

their defense more seriously. They have increased

20:37

their defense spending. But there's

20:39

another side to that, Jane, which is that

20:41

they've seen the immense destruction of the Ukraine

20:44

war. And I think they are rather

20:46

sobered. I mean, China's

20:48

defense budget is much bigger

20:50

than Russia's defense budget. So all of that

20:52

firepower could be applied against the island. People

20:55

don't want to see their island destroyed. So

20:57

there are many voices in Taiwan that are calling

21:00

for Taiwan to kind of move

21:02

away from any extremist positions and

21:04

really try to, again, open dialogue

21:06

with the mainland. I

21:08

must say it's been a little bit more than a

21:10

year since I was in Taiwan for

21:12

a visit. But I was struck by

21:15

the fact that people in their

21:18

20s and early 30s really

21:21

did not want to join the military. Do you

21:23

think that's changing? I think

21:25

you are correct that

21:27

Taiwan has, and we

21:29

should applaud really this

21:32

island that has seen

21:34

a remarkable transition to democracy, but

21:37

also is an economic powerhouse, an

21:39

innovation powerhouse that's recognized around the

21:41

world. So part of that, guess

21:43

what, is by its

21:45

conscious choice to not be fully militarized.

21:48

I mean, they could turn themselves into

21:50

a kind of

21:52

porcupine, a fortress Taiwan,

21:55

almost like a North Korea that

21:58

has caves everywhere and where every

22:00

Everybody wears a uniform and is constantly ready

22:02

for battle. That is not the Taiwan we have

22:04

today. Jane, one scenario that really

22:06

worries me, and this is why that 2027 could

22:09

be the timeline. One

22:14

reason it sort of makes sense to me

22:16

is that if Taiwan does engage in this

22:18

kind of crash program to build itself up

22:21

into a fortress Taiwan, that

22:23

could cause China to

22:26

want to make this

22:28

war earlier rather than later. China

22:30

may see a window where it can

22:33

today or tomorrow could

22:35

attack Taiwan and

22:37

succeed quite

22:39

easily, whereas in five years from

22:41

now when all these javelins, harpoons,

22:43

and all these caves are in

22:46

place and defenses, they

22:48

may feel the need to go earlier rather

22:50

than later and fear that if they don't

22:52

go now that Taiwan will forever slip from

22:54

their grasp. So I am

22:57

very concerned about the next several years.

23:00

If there was war over Taiwan, it

23:02

would mean basically world war.

23:04

We have a war in the Middle East.

23:06

We have a war between

23:08

Russia and Ukraine, and a war over Taiwan

23:11

would mean a war in Asia. That

23:13

amounts to world war, does it not? I think

23:16

a few years ago we would have laughed out

23:18

loud about this kind of possibility,

23:20

but it seems all

23:22

too real today as we look

23:25

at the wars unfolding. I've

23:28

been strongly advising against escalation

23:30

and all these conflicts, particularly in

23:32

Ukraine, but I'm very

23:35

concerned that China

23:37

is watching the Ukraine war and

23:39

thinking, my goodness, they

23:41

may think this is an opportune time that

23:43

the US and Europe are on the back foot,

23:46

and I can add to that that if

23:49

the war in the Middle East was

23:51

to simultaneously escalate, I have to wonder

23:53

if Xi Jinping would at

23:55

that point say, well, this is clearly

23:57

the opportunity we've been waiting for, and we have to.

23:59

to go for it. I'm not sure I

24:02

would go so far as to call it World War III, but boy,

24:04

it would be something approximated now, yes.

24:07

Will we take that very seriously, and Lyle

24:10

Goldstein, thank you very much for

24:12

your sober depiction of what could

24:14

happen. Thanks so much for having me, Jane.

24:18

Lyle Goldstein is a military strategist

24:21

and a professor at Brown

24:23

University. Up next, when

24:26

historian Ron Emitter joins me for

24:28

our final chat of this first

24:30

season of the podcast. Hi,

24:39

I'm Shirley Lim. I'm a columnist for The

24:41

Boston Globe. I want to tell you about a

24:43

new podcast that I'm hosting. It's called

24:45

Say More. On Say More, I'll be

24:47

talking to the doers and benders behind

24:49

the biggest ideas of our time.

24:51

How business works, how cities thrive,

24:54

politics, technology, culture. I want

24:56

to bring you into those

24:59

conversations. Say More, a

25:01

new podcast from Boston Globe is

25:03

here. Find it wherever you listen

25:05

to podcasts. I'm

25:14

back with Ron Emitter. Ron,

25:16

I had to believe it's the last

25:18

episode. The last episode, but in a sense,

25:20

this is a story, Jane, that's going to go on and on. I

25:23

hope we'll have a chance to pick it up again

25:25

in future. In fact, I'm pretty confident we will. Hope

25:27

so. What is subject to end

25:29

on? Taiwan. The thing on everyone's mind

25:31

when it comes to Taiwan is

25:34

the possibility of war with China. At

25:37

first, Lyle was reluctant to go

25:39

for a timetable for possible war.

25:41

But then he threw caution to

25:43

the wind, saying if

25:45

Taiwan starts to build itself up

25:47

militarily with American

25:49

help, that could tempt China to go

25:52

to war earlier, maybe as soon as

25:54

2027. I

25:56

feel that's a bit of Washington hysteria.

26:00

take, Rana? Well, I think Lars is a very

26:02

serious analyst, and the point is that we need

26:04

all sorts of analyses, including bleaker ones, as well

26:06

as more positive ones. So I think having it

26:08

there in the mix is important. But I would

26:11

say that one of the stories that I think

26:13

is going to dominate when it comes to Taiwan

26:15

and China's relations in at least the immediate future

26:18

is an economic one. China's own domestic

26:20

economy is really still in the place

26:22

where it needs to push for growth. And, you know,

26:24

I don't know, and it turns out that

26:27

most attorneys' leadership don't know exactly what's needed

26:29

to get the Chinese economy revving again.

26:31

But I can tell you without any

26:33

kind of specialist knowledge whatsoever that the

26:35

one thing that would really deep-six it

26:37

is getting some sort of confrontation in

26:39

the region. That would be terrible, not

26:42

just for the economy, but of course

26:44

for the wider stability of the region.

26:46

The other economic story, though, is about

26:48

Taiwan itself. And by some counts, something

26:50

like 80% of Taiwan's economy is linked

26:52

one way or another to the mainland.

26:54

Now, think about the kind of economic

26:56

leverage that gives you a few months

26:59

ago. We had what was briefly

27:01

called the Pineapple War. Fortunately, it wasn't a

27:03

real war if it was more like a

27:05

trade conflict. But China wanted to show that

27:07

it could stop the flow of Taiwan's exotic

27:10

fruits into the mainland if it wanted to.

27:12

A very small example of how it has

27:14

much greater leverage over Taiwan's already in some

27:16

ways quite turbulent

27:20

economic situation. So it's important to note what

27:22

might happen in terms of the military side,

27:25

but let's not forget the economics. Well,

27:27

yeah. I mean, I was going to

27:29

say, you know, one way that China

27:31

can start its effort to get Taiwan

27:33

back into its fold would

27:35

be to do a blockade of Taiwan

27:38

first, a really serious blockade, more than

27:40

pineapples. They could aim to cut off

27:42

Taiwan's access to energy, food, even water.

27:44

Do you think that could be successful?

27:47

And what would the United States do

27:49

in that situation? Well, use

27:51

the word successful there, Jane. I

27:53

find myself asking what does success

27:55

look like in that context? And

27:57

I think the idea of recapturing

27:59

Taiwan through some means that essentially

28:02

destroys large parts of the island, but

28:04

it's the economy, whether it's the people,

28:06

whether it's the society, is not something

28:08

that's going to look that great either

28:10

in the outside world or in Taiwan

28:12

itself. Clearly, there are lots of ways

28:14

in which China could manage to reincorporate

28:16

Taiwan, but the ways that enable China

28:18

to do that and still maintain this term

28:21

that we've heard over the years, soft power, the

28:23

idea that people will still look at China and

28:25

think, this is a place that has its own

28:28

attraction, this is a place that knows how to

28:30

get things done. Putting in a

28:32

blockade, I think, will be an absolute denial

28:34

of China's ability to project that sort of

28:36

image in the world. Talking

28:39

about that also reminds me of TSMC,

28:41

which is basically the crown jewel of

28:44

Taiwan. They make almost all the

28:46

microchips in the world, and certainly 90% of

28:49

the sophisticated chips that

28:51

go into military hardware and other high-end

28:55

equipment. If

28:57

there was a war, God forbid, what

29:00

do you think would happen to TSMC? Would

29:02

one side or the other target it? Obviously,

29:04

this has been one of the ways in which

29:06

Taiwan has become most prominent in the world, and

29:08

in a sense, the small island that sits

29:10

at the heart of the global supply chain, the

29:13

global technological story, that's an astonishing development. The

29:16

difficulty is, I think, at the moment

29:18

for all sides, that there's a certain

29:20

element of geopolitical blackmail going on. It's

29:23

certainly the case that if China

29:25

were looking to assault the island

29:27

in a very military sense, then

29:29

there are ways and means, no

29:31

doubt, of destroying at least parts

29:33

of the capacity. But whether

29:35

or not, in fact, that would be something

29:37

that would hurt China more, because it's still

29:39

also dependent on chips from that factory, is

29:41

quite a moot question. The

29:44

other thing is also to remember

29:46

what TSMC often point out themselves,

29:48

which is that it's not just

29:50

about the factories, it's about the

29:52

people, it's about the ecology, it's

29:54

about the very, very carefully crafted

29:56

and curated ecology within which

29:58

those chips are made. And that

30:00

could be much easier to damage, even with

30:02

the threat of conflict or war, let alone

30:05

the reality of it. So concentrate on the

30:07

factories, but remember what makes the factories run.

30:10

One final thing to ask you. You know,

30:12

I started this project with the idea and

30:15

the intention of steering clear of all

30:17

the babble in Washington, particularly the end

30:21

of the world interpretation of China

30:23

that's so popular there at the

30:25

moment. Do you think there are

30:27

political solutions or a great grand

30:29

bargain that can diminish the

30:31

prospect of conflict that they talk about down

30:33

there? I think what I do know is

30:36

that the only way in which

30:39

such a bargain, such an agreement that

30:41

both sides have or

30:43

should undertake to make sure that the relationship doesn't

30:45

get out of control is if

30:47

both sides are talking to each other

30:50

all the time constantly. Sometimes often about

30:52

relatively trivial things about sort of day-to-day

30:54

mundane things, but being in contact. Dialogue

30:57

isn't enough on its own. It has to

30:59

lead somewhere. It has to build. But without

31:01

the dialogue, there's clearly going to be no

31:03

opportunity to create that space there. There are

31:05

thinkers like Australian ambassador to the United States,

31:07

Kevin Rudd, who have written about this issue.

31:10

His book is called The Avoidable War. That's

31:12

a great title. It points out that there

31:15

is no inevitability. We are not

31:17

hurtling towards a confrontation that has

31:19

to happen. And if people

31:21

are sensible, if people are thoughtful, if

31:23

people think through what the possibilities are

31:25

and the horrific consequences of getting it

31:27

wrong, as Margot Goldstein talked to us

31:29

about, then they will make sure that

31:31

the war is not just avoidable, but

31:33

avoided. Thanks

31:35

so much, Rana, for all your thoughts this

31:38

entire first season of the podcast. And

31:41

I can't wait to be sitting behind mics

31:43

again, discussing much more in the near future.

31:45

I look forward to it. I

31:53

want to leave you with a quote that I've

31:55

gone back to again and again while reporting this

31:57

season of the podcast. It's

31:59

from Philip Z and Robert

32:01

Blackwell, two very experienced

32:03

diplomatic hands. They put

32:05

it this way, the US and

32:07

China are well on their way to confrontation,

32:10

which could eventually lead to war,

32:12

they wrote. There'll be no

32:15

grand bargain, because each is

32:17

seeking primary leadership in Asia.

32:20

Only quality diplomacy will rescue

32:22

them from catastrophe. That

32:25

seems right on the money to me, with

32:28

a special emphasis on quality. We're

32:31

going to need more quality conversations, and

32:34

that's what I've been striving to do on

32:36

the podcast. I hope to continue

32:38

these conversations in the next

32:40

season. Thanks

32:50

so much for listening to season one

32:52

of Faith Off. It's been

32:54

such a pleasure to delve into what is the

32:56

most important relationship of the 21st century.

33:00

Please share this podcast and

33:02

leave us a review. It helps so

33:04

much. And stay tuned

33:06

for season two. This

33:09

project is made possible by the generous

33:11

support of the Carnegie Corporation. Faith

33:14

Off is produced and reported by

33:16

me, Jane Perles. Special

33:18

guest, Rana Mitter. Executive

33:21

producer, Mia Lobel. Senior

33:24

producer, Nina Puzuki. Sound

33:28

design and mixing by John Myers

33:30

and Alex Lewis of Rojo

33:32

Productions. Original score

33:34

by Alex Lewis. Show

33:36

art by Good Tape Studio. Research

33:40

by Luz Ding. Special

33:42

thanks to Paul Burgards and Maggie

33:44

Taylor. Special thanks also

33:46

to the Belster Center at the

33:48

Harvard Kennedy School for their support.

34:01

Row Home Productions. Hi,

34:07

I'm Shirley Leon. I'm a columnist for the

34:09

Boston Globe. I want to tell you about

34:11

a new podcast that I'm hosting. It's

34:14

called S.A.I.M.E. On S.A.I.M.E. I'll be talking

34:16

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34:18

biggest ideas of our time. How business

34:20

works. How cities thrive. Politics.

34:24

Technology. Culture. I

34:26

want to bring you inside those conversations. A

34:30

new podcast from Boston Globe opinion.

34:33

Find it wherever you listen to podcasts.