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continue on ABC. Touchdowns

1:27

hopefully this season. Chris Godwin, we're looking at

1:29

you. Some players who might score fewer touchdowns

1:31

this season. Jordan Addison, we are looking at

1:33

you. Can Brandon Iuke, Nico Collins, George Pickens,

1:36

Amari Cooper, can they be as

1:38

efficient as they were last year? We're

1:40

also going to talk about some tight

1:42

ends. There's regression for basically all of

1:44

the time. Not all, but many of

1:46

the top tight ends. LaPorta, Ingram,

1:48

David Nijoku, Trey McBride, and Dalton

1:50

Kincaid. They are on the regression

1:52

list. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to

1:54

fantasy football today. It is Thursday,

1:57

June 13th. We will not have a show

1:59

tomorrow. We will have four shows going

2:01

forward for the foreseeable future. And then I think once we

2:03

get into July, we'll be up to five. Adam,

2:06

Dan, Jamie, and Heath here.

2:08

Heath, we ready for some

2:10

more regression? Monday was so good.

2:12

We brought you back for another. Well,

2:15

you brought me back. Like I'm, I'm only here

2:17

for this. Like I appreciate it. Thanks for having

2:19

me on a couple of times. I don't think

2:21

I can do a guest spot again next year.

2:23

Hey, hey, hey, because you're doing FFT Dynasty, which

2:26

everyone should listen to twice a week. You haven't

2:28

been on the show as much. But

2:30

we enjoyed the first regression show. We made

2:32

it a two-parter. Anyway, who are some of

2:34

the, I think one or two of the

2:36

biggest regression candidates at wide receiver and tight

2:38

end, our special guest, Heath Cummings today. Yeah.

2:41

I think with your work, what do you

2:43

do? Yeah. Can I tell people

2:45

where they can find my work? No,

2:48

I think at

2:50

wide receiver, it's probably a couple of

2:52

guys in, in similar

2:55

offenses, Nico Collins and Brandon Ayuk.

2:58

And we see this happen

3:00

in the, the Shanahan type system with wide receivers. We

3:02

saw it with Jalen Waddle a couple of years ago.

3:04

We had a Debo Samuel year where he averaged like

3:07

18 years, yards of catch and

3:09

12 yards per target. And

3:11

that's kind of what Ayuk and Nico did last

3:13

year. Now they can make up for that

3:15

with an increase in volume this

3:17

year, probably easier to believe for

3:19

Nico than it is for Ayuk.

3:21

Just because that pause past volume

3:23

situations pretty set with kid

3:26

old Debo Ayuk and them running a McCaffrey

3:28

and running a more run heavy scheme at tight end.

3:30

I would say it's definitely Evan Ingram. He's he's the

3:32

guy that I get a lot. How did he have

3:35

20 more catches than everyone else last year and nobody

3:37

wants to draft him as a top five tight end.

3:39

We'll talk about why. So

3:43

Debo and Nico Collins, there

3:45

have been some wide receivers recently who have

3:47

had these remarkably efficient years, you know, big

3:49

yards per target. Yack eight, I don't like

3:51

high eight odd and high yak. I'd

3:54

mentioned this with Nico. And then the numbers go down

3:56

the next year in terms of the rates, but a

3:58

lot, but the targets might go up. So

4:00

the two that come to mind are Jamar Chase. I think I said there

4:02

were a lot there aren't that many, but Jamar

4:04

Chase and AJ Brown, they

4:07

had these great, really efficient breakout seasons. They

4:09

didn't keep up the rates the following year,

4:11

but they earned so many more targets. They

4:13

were better in fantasy, but let's

4:15

talk about that. Like who, how much can

4:18

Nico Collins and Brandon and IU gain in

4:20

targets? Nico was 109 targets in 15 games with Tank

4:22

Del playing

4:26

a half a season and Stefan Diggs on

4:28

the bills. IYUC was 105 targets in

4:30

16 games. So

4:32

fewer targets and one more game. Do you think

4:35

either of them get to 120 targets, which

4:38

is really not that much? I

4:40

think it's way more likely for Nico to get to 120

4:43

targets than it is for IU.

4:45

The flip side of that is we've seen IU,

4:48

well, he hasn't been near as good as he

4:50

was last year in terms of yards per target

4:52

or yards per catch. We've seen him like three

4:54

or four years produce like an elite wide receiver.

4:58

This was the first time we've seen it from Nico.

5:00

So I think you have to be more concerned about

5:02

how much regression there is for Nico, but

5:04

there is a better chance for Nico to earn the targets

5:06

to make up for it in my opinion. Do

5:08

you go into this with players like

5:11

that where it's

5:13

really a one year sample size? And I know

5:15

you could say offense for the 49ers because it's

5:17

been the Kyle Shanahan system, but Brock

5:20

Purdy for first full year as a starter. And

5:23

it feels like that's their guy and they're going

5:25

to continue to build around him obviously. Now

5:30

there's been some changes clearly, Houston adding Stefan

5:32

Diggs and Tank Dell coming

5:34

back, San Francisco adding Ricky Pierce also, we'll see

5:36

what that means. But I

5:38

just wonder if like what we saw from those

5:40

two guys, I mean the breakout season

5:42

for Collins and the efficiency for IU, how

5:45

much that as a result of, okay, they finally

5:47

have an established quarterback to help them. We know

5:49

that was the case for Nico, but just in

5:51

case of both these guys, like the quarterback has

5:53

now maybe elevated what the system has allowed these

5:55

guys to do. And maybe now this

5:57

is going to become the norm. And I don't know. the

6:00

answer to that. I'm just asking the question, you know, like, is,

6:02

is the quarterback in place and

6:05

allowing the system to flourish going

6:07

to help these two guys in particular, not

6:10

necessarily need the huge jump in targets to be

6:12

as successful as they were. I

6:15

think like when you look at Nico, I think

6:18

you can say like halfway yes

6:20

to that question of is this

6:23

just the new reality? Because like

6:25

his jump was

6:28

absolutely massive. He went from 7.4

6:31

and 7.3 yards per target his first two years

6:33

in the NFL to 11.9 last year. I like

6:38

to give kind of the baseline of 10, nine

6:42

to 10 is nine's elite. Ten is probably that's

6:44

the best you're going to get on a year

6:46

over year basis. And that's about where Tyreek Hill

6:48

has been. That's where Tyler Lockett was for a

6:50

lot of years with Russell Wilson. So

6:53

I think at best you were

6:55

looking at Nico being two yards

6:57

worse per target. And I

7:00

mentioned Waddle, who was I think 11.6 two

7:04

years ago and fell to

7:06

nine the next year. I mentioned

7:09

Deebo who in this, and

7:11

then the reason I bring these guys up is because it's

7:13

the same offensive system. Deebo two, three years ago, 11.6 fell

7:15

to 6.7 the next year. So with IU like he's always

7:23

been pretty elite in that nine range.

7:26

It just spiked to what do you average 18 yards of

7:28

catch last year. So

7:30

I don't think there's any chance that's a new

7:32

reality for Iuke. It's semi the

7:35

new reality for Nico. I don't

7:37

think Dan has spoken yet, but Dan, who if

7:39

you're on the clock, who would you take Nico

7:41

Collins or Brandon Iuke? I'd

7:44

be taking Brandon Iuke. I just think there's a

7:46

little bit more of a condensed target share there

7:48

in San Fran, but I think

7:51

Heath is right. If we're looking at who's going to have

7:53

a better chance to be like more of the big play

7:55

guy, it's going to still be Nico Collins. The way that

7:57

system is run and how he's used within that system, in

7:59

my opinion. from what I've seen and the verticality

8:01

of that game of that passing game. But

8:04

I took to me, it's proven

8:06

it on a longer track record and

8:08

most importantly, didn't have Stefan Diggs at

8:10

the offense this offseason. So,

8:12

yeah, we're going to talk about George Pickens and

8:15

Amari Cooper. Also, if you look at the top

8:17

three wide receivers and yards per catch, Heath

8:20

was talking a little bit about yards per

8:22

target, but yards per catch. Pickens was at

8:24

eighteen point one. I was at

8:26

seventeen point nine. Amari Cooper was seventeen

8:28

point four. Nico Collins was eighth

8:30

in yards per catch at sixteen point two. This is, by

8:32

the way, a minimum of 50 targets.

8:35

So I went back and I looked at

8:37

the previous three years. There were eleven wide

8:39

receivers who average 17 or more

8:41

yards per catch as Pickens, I. You can

8:43

Cooper did last year. But the three years

8:46

before that, there were eleven wide receivers. The

8:49

only ones who came even close to 17 yards per

8:51

catch. The following year, the only ones who averaged more

8:53

than 15 yards per catch were MVS

8:55

and Gabe Davis twice. And those are

8:57

guys who run really deep routes, don't

8:59

catch a lot of balls. So

9:02

I mean, there might be there might be a four

9:04

yard drop in yards per catch for those guys. And

9:06

like I said, you know, you get more targets

9:09

from these guys sometimes, but it's just so interesting

9:11

for you can Nico that they don't

9:14

seem to have that path to being like 140 target guy.

9:18

Right. At least not not

9:20

easily on paper. OK,

9:23

anyway, I mentioned FFT

9:25

Dynasty. Our guest today, Heath Cummings, does

9:27

host that show. Fantasy Football

9:29

Day Dynasty on Tuesdays and

9:31

Fridays. He had Ben Gretsch

9:33

on a Tuesday who Ben thought that I

9:36

made a very fair trade with Heath Dan

9:38

thought it was a terrible trade. It's funny.

9:40

Ben liked that trade from your standpoint. No,

9:42

no. Ben was nice and said he would

9:45

lean my way because Adam was there. And

9:47

then all fair. He told you the truth.

9:49

No, he liked it for both

9:51

of us. That seems more likely. I mean, you

9:53

moved up three spots in the game, gave up

9:55

Trae McBride. It made no sense. Really. I got

9:57

another second round pick and I got Malik. gave

10:00

up Gardner Minshew for that second round pick. I

10:02

did, yes. And it's Superflare. Right. So

10:04

Dan, of course, is part of the reason

10:06

I made that trade. Because all you talk

10:08

about is how Trey McBride's not that good.

10:11

And so now you hate my trade

10:13

for giving up Trey McBride. Well,

10:15

there's another trade that could be going down soon.

10:18

This one between me and Adam, though. I will

10:20

say this about the Bake Burger League. I'm a

10:22

big fan of this Bake Burger League. Because I'm

10:24

in a few dynasty leagues. This is honestly one

10:26

of the more active ones. I'm not even on the

10:29

clock yet. I'm on deck. And I have four

10:31

people talking to me about a trade. I mean,

10:33

it's obviously somebody's falling that shouldn't have been

10:35

there. So I understand why. But let's

10:38

just say I love this league. It's very active. And

10:40

we are going very quarterback heavy in this first round.

10:42

Bo Nix is already off the board. He may see

10:44

PENIX come next. Yeah, Bo Nix is super flexy. Bo

10:48

Nix and PENIX will probably be the

10:51

10th, or the 11th pick, the 10th

10:53

pick. He needs to trade out.

10:55

Don't take PENIX back. He's trying to trade

10:57

out. I hope he takes PENIX now. I

10:59

think he advertised the wrong player. Like he

11:01

advertised you can get PENIX right here. No, you

11:03

can get Xavier Worthy right now. Yes, exactly.

11:05

Well, everybody wants Xavier Worthy. Come on at

11:07

112. Everybody wants

11:09

Xavier Worthy. We're at 112. The thing I don't understand, Dan,

11:11

is why you didn't move up. You have the ammunition to

11:13

move up. One spot up. Like that. No, but I mean,

11:15

even further. Like you could have taken your

11:17

two picks and moved up. I could have taken a two

11:19

pick. But I have a lot of guys falling that I

11:21

like. I'm about to get two guys I like. Yeah, you're

11:23

in a good spot for that too. Yeah, I don't want to

11:26

give that pick up. All right. Let's do a check out

11:28

FFT Dynasty News and Notes real quick here. Actually, we're going

11:30

to take a break. We'll take a break. We'll come back.

11:32

We'll give you some news and notes, including a pretty interesting

11:35

tweet about Javante Williams. We'll

11:37

be right back on Fantasy Football today. Robert

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limited by state law. Here

12:44

are your news and notes. Aaron Rodgers and Hassan

12:46

Redick have not been at mandatory minicamp for the

12:48

Jets. Breece Hall, though, okay, we know about the

12:50

whole Rodgers situation, but I thought what Breece Hall

12:53

said about Rodgers was interesting. He said Rodgers is

12:55

still trying to get back to feeling right from

12:58

his injury. That

13:00

was that was surprising. Remember, he took like

13:02

an alternative path toward recovery. Didn't he? Isn't

13:05

that the whole thing? Yes. Yeah, maybe

13:07

not the best move. Okay,

13:10

what did you guys make of the note

13:13

from Cecil Lamy?

13:15

Cecil Lamy? Cecil Lamy? Cecil

13:17

Lamy? You don't know? Have

13:19

you ever seen the name Cecil in your life? Or

13:21

in the fantasy industry? A literal Hall of Famer on

13:23

the way. Unbelievable.

13:27

Yeah, well, he said the top Denver running back looks

13:29

like you're not the only one who said it though.

13:32

Yeah. Okay, Adam is

13:34

definitely no one. No, no, he's Cecil. First name

13:36

that way. Cecil Lamy is someone else. They both

13:38

said it. No. There's

13:42

been multiple Denver media

13:44

members who have said that that Julia McLaughlin's

13:47

look like the best running back. There's definitely

13:49

not two Cecil Cecil Lamy's. There's a Cecil

13:51

and a Cecil Lamy. There's brothers, Dan. The

13:55

top Denver running back looks like Jaleel McLaughlin. Will

13:57

Jevante Williams even make the team? Wow.

14:01

That's the part that's

14:03

glaring. Wow. Yeah. I

14:06

don't know. My first reaction

14:08

is that's crazy. Like take it back. And

14:11

then I remember the Sean Patons, the head coach there. And

14:14

Sean Paton didn't bring J'Vante Williams

14:16

onto the Broncos. And

14:19

so, you know, maybe.

14:22

But I'll say this about that because I was looking into

14:24

this last night when I saw this. There

14:27

was a drop off in touches

14:29

for Jalil McLaughlin. Is it McLaughlin?

14:31

I don't even know. Is that how you

14:33

pronounce it? McLaughlin? McLaughlin. I

14:36

don't want to pull in a hazer here.

14:38

Jalil McLaughlin. After his like

14:40

initial breakout last season and then his touches fell off

14:42

and you could see it in the game log. So

14:44

he was already with Sean Paton and they dialed it

14:47

back. I'm not so sure what would change that. Maybe

14:49

he feels more comfortable with him in the system, but

14:51

he's still only 180 something pounds.

14:54

There's no workhorse role for somebody who's

14:56

180 most likely the other side of

14:58

it. Yeah. What'd you say, Jamie?

15:01

I was going to say the other side is what's interesting

15:03

because J'Vante Williams, everyone assumes, oh, you know, now he's really

15:05

one year removed from that ACL. He'll be fine. But

15:07

he didn't look the same at all. And there are some

15:09

guys who come back from the ACL, like Wanda Robinson came

15:11

back from the ACL last year, looked pretty damn close to

15:13

what he was. And he's not the only player who did

15:15

that. Breece Hall. There's plenty of examples,

15:18

but like J'Vante Williams, but not

15:20

Breece Hall. No, I was just, I

15:22

think that was the first time in podcast history. That

15:24

somebody put one Dale Robinson and Breece Hall in the

15:27

same category in terms of how they look last year.

15:29

Just ahead of Breece Hall, no, he's got more upside

15:31

explosive off the ACL, not comparable talents,

15:36

but J'Vante didn't look like that at all.

15:39

Really looked like he lost a lot of

15:41

what made him special at North Carolina, which

15:43

is that force miss tackle ability and

15:45

the yards after contact per attempt. So if those

15:47

two things aren't there, he's kind of just applauding.

15:51

I don't even know what I would compare them to type of

15:53

back, maybe a Zach Stacy type, but like late

15:55

career Zach Stacy type. So I

15:57

wouldn't be surprised if the latter comes true. Okay.

16:01

Jonathan Brooks may not be ready for training camp. Jamie, I

16:03

know you're pretty high on Jonathan Brooks. What do you make

16:05

of that? Well,

16:08

first there was a report that he would be ready for training

16:10

camp and then minicamp started and they said he might not be

16:12

ready. So look, they don't know. I mean, why

16:14

would you rush him back to

16:17

unless he's at, you know, at 100% and so I think

16:21

he's got more of the long term upside

16:23

that you're looking for as opposed to the

16:25

short term. I think for him to

16:28

be a starting fantasy option

16:30

in September, I'm hoping he's going to be

16:33

a starting fantasy option midway through October to

16:35

the end of the year and that would

16:37

be close to the year

16:39

mark. He suffered the torn ACL in November and

16:41

to Dan's point, we

16:43

probably have to start to readjust our timeline a little

16:45

bit about the ACL because of how modern medicine has

16:47

changed, how these guys recover and get back and perform

16:49

at a high level and, you know, Bresol is a

16:51

great example that Jevante to be playing

16:53

even is a great example that, you know, still

16:56

producing at a

16:58

decent enough level. You know, I

17:00

think that comes down to the athlete and again, I

17:02

continue to reveal the magazine a little bit. Jacob

17:06

Gibbs is taking Jonathan

17:08

Brooks, I think in every draft we've done with him and

17:11

he did so in the magazine and asked him, you know, that's the

17:13

first running back that he drafted, I believe he drafted in round five

17:16

and the question to him was, you know, how, you

17:20

know, what are your expectations for him to be, you know,

17:22

a starting fantasy option for you because that's the first running

17:24

back he drafted. And he said,

17:26

you know, he's confident, similar to Bresol that I

17:28

think he's 20 years old, 20

17:31

year old Jonathan Brooks can get back to playing at

17:33

a high level soon or soon enough

17:35

that he can produce, you know, good enough

17:37

numbers. So for redraft, you know,

17:39

when you start to get into that range of, you

17:41

know, RB 20 to 26,

17:43

27, I think that's where he belongs to me. He's at the

17:45

start of it though. Like I'm taking him ahead

17:48

of DeAndre Swift, James Connor, Remondre Stevenson, you know,

17:50

that whole group, Najee Harris, you know, I just

17:52

think there's more upside with him if he hits,

17:54

especially in Dave Kanell's office. And I

17:56

would probably like to get one or

17:58

two of. Raheem Mostert

18:00

and Zeke later. If

18:03

I'm gonna do maybe, I mean, you could just pair him up with

18:05

Chuba Hubbard too, but like Mostert's

18:07

probably gonna have 15 plus touches the first few

18:09

weeks of the season. He seems like

18:11

a good partner for Jonathan Brooks. Can

18:13

I just say something here though, because we keep mentioning

18:16

Breece Hall as if he was just

18:18

fine last year. But if you

18:20

compare last year to his rookie season, which

18:22

granted was only 80 carries, I mean, it

18:25

was not even close. Yards per carry down

18:27

1.3 yards. Everything

18:30

was worth yards before contact, yards

18:32

after contact, explosive run rate. 15%

18:34

as a rookie, 6.7% in his

18:36

second season. I

18:40

mentioned he had one of the worst

18:42

rates of negative or zero yard runs.

18:45

25%, 24.7% of Breece Hall's carries were

18:49

for zero or negative yards. So the fact

18:51

is he just caught the ball a ton.

18:53

He got so many carries. He had a

18:55

good year, but he wasn't the same player.

18:57

He wasn't the same player. I agree

18:59

with all that, Adam, but you could see in the open field,

19:01

he still had a different level of burst. It wasn't the same

19:03

as before the injury. It's gonna take a year. My point, exactly.

19:05

It wasn't the same. But it was still burst in the open

19:07

field. Like I think a lot of those rate stats are had

19:09

to do with the Jets. Just horrific situation

19:11

on the offensive line. Barrett Tucker, like everyone getting

19:13

injured there, but it is what it is, especially

19:15

those zero or one yard carries personally. I feel

19:17

that way about those, but it is what it

19:20

is. He wasn't perfect, but it was a different

19:22

level of like return recovery with Javante

19:24

Williams. Like he didn't look at all the same.

19:26

He didn't look, he looked like to me, at

19:28

least somebody who barely belongs on the

19:30

field. Yeah, he didn't have a

19:32

very good year at all. All right, let's fly through the

19:34

rest of these news and notes here, and then we'll get

19:36

back into the regret. Can I just say one more thing

19:38

too? Cause I don't know the context. Like

19:41

you referenced that 15% explosive run rate and

19:43

6.7% last year. It

19:47

sounds to me like he was, like

19:49

nobody's gonna have a 15% explosive run

19:51

rate every year. He was a running

19:54

back coming off of an ACL that had an 83 yard run, a

19:56

72 yard run, a

19:58

50 yard run, a 43 yard run. run and three

20:00

more runs over 25 yards. That's

20:03

pretty awesome. I'm

20:05

not sure if I don't able to have

20:07

one run over 25 yards. We're not comparing

20:09

Breece Hall to Givante Williams. No, I know

20:11

that all I'm saying is every every metric

20:14

was worse last year for Breece Hall than

20:16

it was in his rookie season and and

20:18

not just worse significantly worse. So I do

20:20

you know, there is there

20:22

is still a recovery from ACL. I

20:25

just think yeah, that's all I'm saying. I

20:28

expect him to be better than Givante Williams coming off

20:30

the ACL because he's better than Givante Williams without the

20:32

ACL injury. You know what I mean? Like

20:34

the bar is higher. Right.

20:36

I think I was just saying like his rookie year,

20:38

he averaged 5.8 yards per

20:41

carry and 11.5 yards per

20:43

catch. There was 0% chance

20:45

if he was 100% helping. He was repeating that.

20:47

I know it's nobody does that year over year.

20:49

I know it was it was just a huge

20:51

drop off from okay. Anyway, Giants

20:54

rookie running back Tyrone Tracy could be the

20:56

passing downs back, which makes sense. He's converted

20:58

wide receiver. Brian Dable, it appears will be

21:01

back to calling plays for the Giants. Joe

21:04

Burrow said he'd be ready for the start of the season

21:06

as he continues to recover from a wrist injury.

21:08

He's talked about the mental toll that all the

21:10

injuries have taken and when we talked to Marty

21:13

last week, our injury guy, Burrow

21:15

was someone who we came away with. Jamie and I came

21:17

away with saying, All right, even if we maybe felt felt

21:19

this way beforehand, but definitely if you draft Joe Burrow, you

21:21

probably want to have a backup as

21:24

of right now. As we look at his injury status, Josh

21:27

Allen is tweaking his mechanics. He said

21:29

his mechanics changed last season as

21:32

he dealt with a week six shoulder injury. By the

21:34

way, that's two years in a row that Allen has

21:36

gotten hurt mid season and played through it.

21:38

Jamie, it's weird to hear a guy say

21:40

he's tweaking his mechanics when he's this established.

21:42

Does this concern you at all? No,

21:45

I think you know, look, there's

21:48

probably been any number

21:51

of quarterbacks that have done this throughout the course of their

21:53

career that they tweak their mechanics because they're not happy with

21:55

something or trying to make themselves better or somebody told them

21:57

something that they found on on film that we just don't.

21:59

I don't always hear about. I

22:02

think he's just got to get used to, you know, checking it down

22:04

to James Cook a lot, because that's going to be a big part

22:06

of this offense. I'm

22:08

not worried about him, no. I have one thought

22:11

on this. I spoke with Sean McAvoy, a

22:13

quarterback trainer, who has worked with

22:15

a lot of NFL quarterbacks. And this is actually

22:17

something that Josh Allen has done throughout his career.

22:19

It's this new age thing that some quarterbacks do.

22:22

It's this different way to tweak your

22:24

mechanics, this biomechanics thing. And it's using

22:26

like, it's kind of like if anyone's ever done

22:29

like a swing evaluation from golf tech, it shows

22:31

you the percentages where you are and your drop

22:33

back throughout your whole throwing motion. And he's used

22:35

this throughout his career. It's not new. It's just

22:37

something he's going back to now. OK,

22:39

man, you love golf. It's kind of just

22:42

like I do. But like those last two,

22:44

and I've been leaning this way a little

22:46

bit, and it's like I'm not going to reveal anything for

22:48

the magazine. But there's going to be a bold prediction for

22:50

me about Patrick Mahomes in the magazine. Go. And

22:54

Joe Burrow, like got these

22:56

injury concerns. Josh Allen doesn't have any wide

22:58

receivers. Now he's tweaking his mechanics. Jaylen Hurts,

23:00

the second half of the season, didn't look

23:02

like he was the same guy. It's

23:05

feeling more and more like there should be a little

23:07

bit of separation between Mahomes and everybody else in

23:10

fantasy drifts. We're the only ones

23:12

that seem to believe that. Yeah, tell that to ADP, right?

23:14

It's crazy. It's Allen is still like number

23:16

one. It's not crazy. It's not crazy.

23:18

It's just that we don't. Right. We are the only

23:20

ones that seem to feel that way. Sam

23:23

Darnold is going to be the,

23:25

I'll get to this YouTube comment in

23:27

a second. Sam Darnold is going to be the

23:29

Minnesota starter as training camp opens. And then we'll

23:31

see what happens from there. Matt Weber

23:34

on YouTube said, did Dan remodel his bathroom?

23:36

Dan was tired of being on the can. He

23:38

changed locations. But we are way behind in time.

23:41

And we have to make fun of Dan for

23:43

something else in a minute. So let me finish

23:45

up the notes here. Don't worry. I make it

23:47

easy for you guys. Rams running back. Blake Corum

23:49

said that they're using him more like a three

23:51

down back. And that pass blocking is very important

23:53

to the Rams. So that's something

23:55

that Kyron Williams is good at. Hopefully Blake

23:57

Corum can be good at that as well.

24:00

Travis Kelsey said he'll play until the

24:02

wheels fall off. AJ Brown, let's start

24:04

the best shape of his life list.

24:07

He says he's in the best shape of his life,

24:09

motivated by the late season injury. George

24:11

Pickens is working out of the slot. He's happy

24:13

about that. He likes working out of the slot.

24:16

Not obviously exclusively, but they'll move him around more.

24:18

Amari Cooper, Miss Minicamp, he's a free agent

24:20

after this season. Ooh, we're gonna talk about

24:22

Pickens and Cooper in a little bit. And

24:25

Washington rookie wide receiver Luke McCaffrey has

24:27

been taking some handoffs. I'm

24:29

interested to see how they use him, Heath. All

24:32

score. It's going to be very interesting with the

24:35

kickoff rules. There was a note

24:37

about Deontay Foreman taking kickoff reps for the Browns.

24:41

What some of these guys are doing, there was a video

24:43

of Zach Gertz working on special teams. You

24:46

know, just trying to get his release point off.

24:48

Mike McDaniel said that he thinks that by the

24:51

end of the year, every single star skill player

24:53

is gonna be asking to be on the kickoff

24:55

guy. The

24:57

Dolphins are one of the more fascinating ones because of all that speed

24:59

that they have. So like from a

25:01

DSD perspective. That's

25:03

the thing, exactly. Cause that's for the DSD. It's gonna change

25:05

a lot of how we've used DSD. And

25:08

then we may bring back like points for

25:10

special teams and fantasy, things like that. We

25:12

100% should do, like if the NFL is

25:14

making this change because they want more returns,

25:17

I'm going to push to get at least a

25:19

couple of our leads to add some return yard

25:21

points. I know Scott Fishbowl is getting ready to

25:24

start pretty quick. And that's one of the things

25:26

he changed this year is there are points for

25:28

return yards and return touchdowns, of course. I

25:30

had no idea. I had no idea. Of course you had no

25:32

idea. So

25:34

yeah, absolutely love that. One other McCaffrey

25:37

note I saw, Jaden Daniels

25:39

was talking about how he gets to

25:41

the facility at 5.45 every day. And

25:45

there's one guy there with him and it's

25:47

Luke McCaffrey. So like, we

25:50

may have a new breakfast. Oh, this is the

25:52

Cooper cut Matthew Stafford breakfast. This may be the

25:54

new breakfast. No, it's the new breakfast fair duo.

25:57

It's the breakfast club, Adam's favorite movie. Very

26:00

awful. So, not awful,

26:02

not awful, just over it. It's not awful, not

26:04

good though. Yeah. Alright, alright. Listen, so I have

26:06

one other thing because we talked to Megan Schaup

26:09

yesterday about schedules for playoffs and how in best

26:11

ball people really pay attention to that. I just

26:13

want to let everyone know. Tua's on the by

26:15

Loa and the Dolphins really struggle in cold weather.

26:17

They have at least in the past and you

26:20

don't want to start him in cold weather games

26:22

and Tua is at Cleveland in week 17. So

26:25

if you have him, even if you have maybe Jalen

26:27

Waddle, I can't imagine you're sitting Tyreek Hill. Just be

26:29

aware they're at Cleveland in week 17. But

26:32

one advantage... That's not to do with that defense by the

26:34

way, just the weather. Well, yeah, no, it's bad. Both

26:36

things are bad. I don't know

26:38

that they have a single cold weather

26:41

game all year other than that. They

26:43

are at Green Bay on November 28th. That's

26:46

the only other one that might be a cold weather

26:48

game. Unfortunately they do have the Jets

26:50

in week 14, the Niners in week 16, but

26:52

those are home games at Houston. I mean,

26:55

it's a tough schedule. Bad defenses down the

26:57

stretch. I just wanted to... Good

26:59

defense. Yeah, bad matchups, good

27:01

defenses down the stretch. Jets,

27:04

Texans, 49ers, Cleveland, that's their last four,

27:06

my goodness. Maybe by then it'll

27:08

stop raining. Oh yeah, I'm sorry. I

27:10

hope it's not too bad over there. I know a lot of flooding.

27:13

Okay, let's see what happened on

27:15

Monday on CBS Sports

27:17

Network was we played Fantasy Feud and

27:20

I tried to explain the rules to Dan and... You're

27:24

saving this one, huh? Let's

27:26

roll the clip. We played Fantasy Feud, Dan

27:28

versus Jamie, and go ahead, let's

27:30

roll the clip. The

27:33

way you buzz in is just by saying

27:35

your name. That's the best we're going to

27:38

do here. Let's go to our first category.

27:40

The top six answers are on the board.

27:42

Here's the category. Tight

27:44

end, touchdown, catch leaders.

27:47

Jamie. Top six answers.

27:50

Jamie. Sam LaPorta. He

27:53

is the number one answer. Would you like to pass

27:55

or play? Oh, it's more fun to

27:57

watch Dan sweat. Let's pass. I

28:00

happen to agree with you about this one.

28:02

Okay, you got five more touchdown catch leaders

28:04

at the tight end position from last year.

28:06

Sam LaPorta is off the board. Who else

28:08

led the position? Okay,

28:11

Dan, let's go with. I

28:15

already missed the rule.

28:21

Oh, we love it. Dan. I

28:23

can't be the only one who's never watched Family Feud. But

28:27

you knew it was your turn to answer.

28:29

And then you still have to. Yeah, I heard Jamie go,

28:31

Jamie, before his answer, right? Yeah, because that's how the round.

28:33

And so then I thought that's how you start a thing

28:35

off. It's like a Jeopardy thing. Like, you know, you have

28:38

to ask a question. This is a similar thing. You gotta

28:40

say your name. Oh, man. All

28:42

right, back to the regression candidates. We talked about

28:45

Nico, we talked about IYUC. Just curious,

28:47

Heath, where do you have them ranked? I

28:50

think Nico is wide receiver 16 and IYUC is 18

28:52

or 15 and 17. They

28:56

are very, very, those Nico, Debo,

28:58

IYUC are all very close.

29:02

I really want to move Tank Dell up and just put those

29:04

four right in a row, honestly. Hmm. Okay,

29:07

so then let's go to Amari

29:09

Cooper and George Pickens. These are

29:11

two other wide receivers that have

29:13

efficiency regression coming. We have a

29:16

lot more that have touchdown regression,

29:18

but Amari Cooper and George Pickens.

29:21

Yeah, Cooper last year in his age 29

29:23

season averaged

29:26

what, two and a half more yards per catch

29:28

than he ever had in his career. More

29:31

yards per target than he had since 2019. And

29:35

like, you just don't, you

29:38

don't want to bet on that repeating

29:40

itself. Now, I think with both

29:42

Cooper and Pickens, there's reasons to think they can make

29:44

up for it because Cooper was

29:47

so much better when Deshaun Watson was there.

29:49

And it's the inverse for David Najoku. Like,

29:51

if Deshaun Watson plays 17 games, David

29:53

Najoku might be on the waiver wire by like

29:55

week six, but that's

29:58

the hope is that. Lots in playing a full

30:00

season if he does that will be

30:03

good enough for Cooper in terms of targets that

30:05

he makes up for it. The hope for Pickens,

30:07

who was, he led the NFL in yards per

30:09

catch, right? And he's going to see

30:11

a huge regression in terms of that. The

30:13

hope for Pickens is he's the clear number one wide receiver

30:16

in this offense. And we know what a number one wide

30:18

receiver in Arthur Smith's offense can do. Yeah.

30:22

And in four games that he played without Deontay

30:24

Johnson, it was just 127, 75, 25, and 130 yards.

30:30

He had two touchdowns. He had huge games against Cleveland

30:32

and Baltimore. He had a 29% target share, 26.4% target

30:35

per out run rate. So

30:39

Heath, I mean, that's the thing with

30:41

Pickens. Do you think that unlike Debo,

30:43

unlike Nico and Iuke, that

30:45

this guy could see 140? Is

30:47

that a lot? 140 targets for Pickens? I

30:51

think that's probably a little bit too much, but

30:54

I would say 125, 130 is certainly possible.

30:58

You could think that many in an Arthur Smith system. I

31:04

think it's possible.

31:07

I mean, first off, yes, there's

31:09

no other wide receivers, but also I

31:11

think it's possible that we see more pass

31:13

attempts from an Arthur Smith system if Russell

31:15

Wilson's the quarterback or Justin Fields is the

31:17

quarterback as opposed to Taylor Heinecke or Marcus

31:20

Mariota or Desmond Ritter. See,

31:23

that's a great point, Heath, because you got

31:25

to go back to Smith's first season in

31:27

Atlanta when he had Matt Ryan. And that's,

31:30

I referenced this a few times over the last couple of years

31:32

when I spoke to him for the

31:34

magazine story, and this is not revealing anything, for the

31:36

magazine story last year on Bijan Robinson. And

31:39

I asked him about Drake London and Kyle Pitts,

31:41

and it was kind of telling what he said

31:43

about Pitts, which was when we had

31:45

a veteran quarterback, we threw the ball more. And that

31:47

was the case. When he had a guy that he

31:49

trusted, whether you believed in Matt Ryan or not, he

31:51

did. And he believed that he could

31:53

at least keep this offense from a passing standpoint

31:55

afloat as opposed to what he had the last

31:58

two years in the Mariota Ritter.

32:00

or a Heineke situation. And so

32:03

whether you believe in Ryan Tannehill and what he had

32:05

in Tennessee, whether you believe in Russell Wilson now or

32:07

Justin Fields, whoever's gonna start the majority of those games,

32:10

I think he will allow that offense to throw the

32:12

ball more to whatever degree it is, whether it's 10%

32:14

more, 20% more, 50% more. I

32:17

don't think that'll be the case, but 10 to 20%

32:19

seems more realistic with Russell Wilson. And for Pickens, I

32:22

mean, my gosh, you said it, the receiving core behind him

32:24

could be absolutely atrocious. And

32:27

we hope Roman Wilson can step in and be that

32:29

second guy. It's why I like Pat Friermuth. I think

32:31

he's in line for a big season as

32:33

that second target getter, because I think that's what it'll be.

32:36

But Mark Kibali, who covers

32:38

the Steelers for the Athletic, he was talking

32:40

about Van Jefferson right now as

32:42

the starter, but it's just a hodgepodge of

32:44

guys that they may be throwing into that

32:46

second spot. I think they're viewing Wilson more

32:48

as the slot guy. It's

32:51

just an opportunity for Pickens to absolutely dominate

32:53

targets. And I think he's gonna have an

32:55

absolutely monstrous season. That's

32:59

easy to see. Why, though, do you

33:01

think people are not taking Amari Cooper

33:03

seriously? He's about to

33:05

be 30 years old. I

33:07

think he turns 30 in like two

33:10

days, Amari Cooper. And I get that,

33:12

but man, he was so good last

33:14

year. He's mentioned, I

33:16

mean, the efficiency too high. Basically, at his best season in

33:18

terms of efficiency. But that was also

33:20

a few games with Dorian Thompson Robinson dragging

33:22

him down. So when it was Flacco or

33:25

Watson, the guy was one of the elite

33:27

receivers in the league. Yeah,

33:30

I don't know. He's about wide receiver 29, 30,

33:32

depending on ADP. I

33:35

don't really see, all right,

33:37

I'll just go ahead and say it. I'd take

33:39

him over Tankdell and I'd take him over Zae Flowers.

33:41

And I don't know that many

33:44

people would do that. Is anybody really that? But do

33:46

you not have any concern about another mouth defeat in

33:48

this offense on top of the fact that the quarterback

33:50

is coming back from a shoulder injury? So,

33:53

more so the Watson thing. You're talking

33:56

about Jerry Judy. Cooper

33:58

was pretty good last year with a lot. more

34:00

getting a lot of targets with Watson. Watson

34:02

really liked Elijah more. I

34:05

think it's gonna be like Nijoku and

34:08

more obviously who suffer target wise more

34:10

than Cooper, personally. And

34:13

yeah, I am worried about it, but getting him at wide receiver 29 or

34:15

even 24 is

34:17

a lot. Yeah, but even if it's like

34:19

24, that's still like a lot

34:22

worse than what he was last year. I

34:25

think it was 15th per game last year. Yeah, I

34:27

mean, look, he's the Tyler

34:29

Lockett. He's the Brandon Cooks. He's the

34:31

guy that we, and to

34:33

whatever degree you wanna rate those guys, but he's the guy that we're

34:35

gonna say, I don't want him, I don't want him. And then he

34:37

out produces his ADP and performs at high level because he's a good

34:39

player. But last year there was some

34:41

career numbers there that you have to be a little bit concerned about.

34:43

And I think this is where the regression comes in. I

34:46

think a career high in yards, I'm not mistaken. And

34:49

you're asking him to overcome

34:52

a couple of things that

34:54

I think could be hard for him to overcome. And

34:56

look, if part of what he was able to

34:58

do last year, and this sort of plays

35:00

into, pros and cons of what you think

35:02

of Nick Chubb, but the run game wasn't the same. And

35:05

if the run game is back to being what

35:07

the Browns I think wanted to be, then

35:09

maybe the past game isn't as successful and they're

35:11

not asking their quarterbacks to do as much. And

35:13

so I think that's a factor also. So for

35:15

me, Cooper's a high end number three receiver. I

35:18

don't mind taking him as early as 24. I

35:20

would personally take Tank Dell over him, but I

35:23

would take him ahead of Zae Flowers. I think there's a

35:25

little bit more safety there just given the track

35:27

record and what he should still be able to do, especially with

35:30

Derrick Henry joining the Ravens. But that's

35:32

splitting here. If you want the younger guy, that's gonna

35:34

be clearly the number one receiver on his offense as

35:36

well. You can go that route. But

35:38

Cooper, I think is a high end number

35:40

three receiver with a chance to finish still in the

35:42

top 20 if everything works out well. But that's asking

35:45

a lot for what Watson is coming off of and

35:47

the addition of somebody else. Anybody

35:49

like Malik neighbors better than Cooper? No

35:52

chance. You like Cooper better than neighbors? You. No,

35:55

I'd take Cooper. I

35:57

think Adam's ranking goes CD. lamb,

36:00

Tyree Kill, maybe

36:02

Jefferson, St. Brown

36:04

Chase, neighbors. And

36:08

then you got to put one deal in there

36:10

somewhere. No, that's dead. All right. If

36:13

we said enough about Amari Cooper, anybody want to add anything?

36:17

All right, we can be good. I think it's good. All right. Let's

36:21

take a break. Before we go to break, I just want to say something.

36:23

There's a character on The Simpsons. His

36:25

name is Cecil Terwilliger. It

36:28

was a hitter on the Tigers and

36:30

the Yankees. His name was Cecil Fielder.

36:33

None of this has anything to do with

36:35

Cecil Lamy. Okay, but I think he was

36:37

like, have you never seen the name Cecil

36:39

written out before? No, I thought

36:41

he said, have you never heard of Cecil Lamy

36:43

who's been in the fantasy industry for years? Yeah,

36:45

no, you said that. And

36:48

that's not me. But the Cecil

36:50

Cecil, Cecil, I actually think I'm

36:52

right about that. Obviously, let's go to

36:54

break and talk about touchdown regression when we

36:56

come back. Car.

36:59

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Kroger, fresh for everyone. Fuel restrictions apply.

38:00

names here. So

38:02

touchdown regression wide receivers heath if

38:04

we break it into two categories.

38:07

You had Jordan Addison who had 10

38:09

touchdowns on 108 targets. Brandon

38:11

cooks who had eight touchdowns on

38:13

81 targets. Jaden Reed

38:16

who had eight touchdowns on 94

38:18

targets and two rushing touchdowns. Those

38:21

are the the regressing, you know,

38:23

down in terms of touchdowns. So that

38:25

would be Jaden Reed, Jordan

38:28

Addison and Brandon cooks. And

38:30

then the guys who hopefully will score more

38:32

touchdowns are Michael Pittman, Chris

38:35

Godwin, Garrett Wilson and Drake London. I

38:37

think I've got them all. All right,

38:40

let's start with the Addison, cooks and

38:43

Jaden Reed group

38:45

there. Too many touchdowns last year based on the

38:47

targets. I'm guessing that's what we got. Well,

38:50

and I think like it's easy to just real

38:53

quick. If you look at what Addison did last year,

38:55

you would think he's a number three wide receiver and

38:57

he's young. And so maybe he takes a step forward

38:59

and maybe he's a low end number two wide receiver.

39:02

You're just looking at his fantasy production. And

39:04

I don't think that's the case. I like

39:07

Jordan Addison a lot, but with Sam

39:09

Darnold maybe starting the season at quarterback

39:11

and then maybe going to a rookie

39:13

quarterback, it's hard to project a big

39:15

jump in terms of efficiency and

39:17

the touchdown regression is going to hit hard. I think

39:19

with Brandon cooks, you could look at it and say,

39:21

man, there's no other wide receivers there. And he was

39:24

somewhat relevant. Sometimes he was only relevant when he scores

39:26

touchdowns. I don't think Brandon cooks matters at all. Hmm.

39:30

It doesn't matter to you at all that

39:32

Brandon cooks was sixth in the NFL and

39:34

end zone targets and that, and

39:37

Dak Prescott, I mean, the Cowboys were fourth

39:39

in pass rate inside the 10 yard

39:41

line, which I thought was kind of interesting. And they

39:43

didn't have their goal line back last year. Yeah, I

39:45

know. I know. But, but they don't have a good

39:47

running game and Zika's he's

39:50

back, he's back, but they've actually been top eight

39:52

in that stat in two of the last three

39:54

seasons. I mean, does that, does that matter

39:56

to you that he had that role? He, that Dak seemed

39:58

to trust him by the way, see these. land was

40:00

second in end zone targets. Cook's was sixth. Dak

40:02

threw 57 passes into the

40:04

end zone, which was a career 67 passes

40:06

into the end zone, which was by far career

40:08

high. But does that role do anything for you?

40:10

Does it translate from one season to the next?

40:13

Not at the level of Brandon Cook's target share. No.

40:17

Okay. Does

40:19

anybody think Jaden Reed could reach

40:22

10 touchdowns? Well, let's take away the

40:24

rushing touchdowns. Eight touchdowns for Jaden Reed

40:26

this year. I

40:28

would have to take the under on that. So much

40:30

target competition there. I

40:33

think it comes down to how healthy Christian Watson

40:35

is and the asymmetry between his

40:37

legs. The,

40:40

uh, the,

40:42

look, he's going to be a big focal point of the offense,

40:44

but like Dan said, there's a lot of mouths to feed there.

40:46

Um, most of his

40:48

big games came when Watson wasn't there, but I think he

40:50

did have to factor in the rushing production.

40:53

No, two rushing touchdowns. I don't think you want

40:55

to count on it, but you

40:57

know, they seem to want to use him in this Debo Samuel type

40:59

role. Now only 11 carries. I think we kind of make a little

41:01

bit too much of it, but, um, there,

41:03

there's still an opportunity for him to be a factor

41:06

there. And again, that was 11 carries as a

41:08

rookie who knows if that role increases with

41:11

or without the addition of, of Josh Jacobs,

41:13

which should hopefully have a better run,

41:15

add a better run game to the Packers. I

41:17

think in a lot of ways, the production from

41:19

Jaden Reed as a rookie that was fueled in some ways,

41:22

really a lot of ways by the touchdowns, which I

41:24

think will regress has him very mispriced.

41:26

I liked you and read a lot as a talent,

41:29

but that to me, that Packers wide

41:31

receiver core is going to be a lot more spread

41:33

out than people realize or think. And there's going to

41:35

be a lot less predictability. And yet Jaden Reed seems

41:37

to go considerably ahead of a

41:39

lot of these players, specifically Dontavian, Wicks

41:41

and Romeo Dobbs. And I'm not so

41:44

certain the gap makes too much sense

41:46

for me, at least. My

41:48

expectation with that. And I was tweeting about

41:50

this yesterday. Like I think Dobbs is the

41:53

guy who's probably not coming off the field

41:55

very often. I like that a lot too.

41:57

He's their professional Like

42:00

the other guys are more explosive and are more

42:02

fun for fantasy and they're going to have these

42:04

huge spike weeks, which I like. But

42:07

yeah, I've got, I've got Reed

42:10

projected for 6.2 receiving touchdowns and

42:12

0.4 rushing touchdowns.

42:15

Jayden Reed has had a 72%, 72.3% slot rate

42:18

last year. It

42:22

is difficult for a player to play that

42:24

much in the slot and have a great

42:26

season. Maybe the slot

42:28

rate comes down, but the only

42:30

guy I've brought this up before that had

42:32

like a true standout fantasy season with that

42:35

kind of slot rate, 70% or

42:37

higher, I would say would be Tyler Boyd in

42:39

2018. So

42:43

you know, and yeah, Jayden Reed didn't quite have

42:45

a standout season despite those touchdowns. He was 25th

42:48

per game in full PPR. It was a very

42:50

good season. Also

42:52

the target chair. I mean the

42:54

weeks 4 through 13 with Christian Watson, he had

42:56

a, he was on pace for 83 targets, 83

42:59

targets, 19.4% target per out run rate for

43:01

Jayden Reed, of course could get better as

43:03

a second year guy, but Watson hurt

43:05

him for sure. All right.

43:07

Then how about the other guys? Michael Pittman who

43:11

had it well in his last

43:13

in four seasons, he's had one, six, four,

43:15

and four touchdowns. Michael Pittman

43:17

Garrett Wilson had three

43:19

touchdowns last year and two

43:21

of them were the first two weeks of the season. Drake

43:24

London, two touchdowns on 109

43:26

targets and Chris Godwin

43:28

five touchdowns in his last two

43:30

seasons on 272 targets. That's

43:33

two years in a row for Chris Godwin.

43:36

So what do we do with that? Heath? It

43:38

happens two years in a row sometimes like 17 games

43:40

is a really small sample size. 34

43:43

is better, but how many fantasy baseball decisions do you

43:45

want to make for the rest of the year based on 34 games? I

43:49

mean, I thought the Royals were good

43:51

before this week. I mean, exactly. Yeah. It's

43:54

been a tough week for them. I'm glad that I waited to

43:57

start watching baseball until the Celtics were done winning the

43:59

championship. Yep. Oh, wow. I haven't quite

44:01

done yet. But yeah,

44:04

I think I completely

44:06

lost my train of thought. He snuck in

44:08

the trolling really. I haven't even. Heath,

44:10

how did you become a Celtics fan? I

44:14

lived in rural Missouri in the 80s.

44:17

There was no basketball team within seven hours of

44:19

me. I chose Larry Bird. So you

44:21

just picked one of the best teams that this

44:23

is a class. It's like the New Jersey Cowboys fans. Who

44:26

should I have chosen, Dan? I

44:29

guess just choose the best team. I mean, look, you know,

44:31

Jason Tatum, it must a nice life when

44:34

you just root for all of the best teams. I

44:36

went through the Antoine Walker years. OK, OK. It's

44:41

my walk. I want a championship. All he does is

44:43

win. No, he left before all the best. No, no, you want to. He

44:45

you want to. Oh, OK. Yeah. Go

44:49

ahead, he's. With

44:51

what? I have no idea. So

44:54

we trolled our way into a.

44:57

Michael Pittman, Garrett

44:59

Wilson. I'm going

45:01

to take I think I think everyone expects a

45:03

lot of touchdowns of Garrett Wilson. We got the

45:06

Aaron Rodgers thing. So Pittman, London and Godwin. Do

45:08

any of them score eight touchdowns this year? I

45:14

could see London potentially doing it. I

45:16

guess the three doing it. Pittman is the hardest one

45:18

to get there, but I think it's the hardest one for me to get there

45:20

on. I

45:22

yes, I agree that it's

45:25

possible. I don't project that for any

45:27

of them, but I think they all

45:29

score more more touchdowns than Jaden Reid.

45:32

I agree with that. Interesting.

45:36

Cool, let's go to tight end. I

45:38

think the thing for for for London and

45:41

for Wilson is, I mean, the

45:43

quarterback upgrade is just so huge. Like, you

45:46

know, we have somebody in the in the chat continuing to not

45:49

be in favor

45:51

of of London, which

45:53

is fine. You know, you don't have to draft him if you don't want to. But

45:56

it's hard to overlook the pedigree and what he

45:58

should be able to accomplish. you

46:00

know, and so I

46:02

don't know what you have a projected for Heath. I would

46:05

say for me the baseline for all four

46:07

of these guys, you know, maybe outside of Godwin would

46:09

be six touchdowns with the help of them, you know,

46:11

getting to that number and anything north

46:13

of that should be great because what they should be able to

46:15

do with their catches in their yards will

46:18

hopefully overcome that. Now, clearly that's a PPR, non

46:20

PPR thing, but I think

46:22

for these guys, you know, you could be talking

46:24

about 90 plus catches for almost all of them.

46:29

Right. Yeah. I've got, uh, in fact,

46:31

I think I have that for all of them except

46:33

for London. I think I have in the eighties, but

46:35

I don't know. I don't understand how many I think

46:38

we're kind of just guessing on how many times they're going

46:40

to pass. They keep talking like and you're

46:42

by at least from, from our group, the, the low

46:44

down London, which makes sense. So

46:47

what do you think if I were going to look

46:49

at a stat and see how it

46:51

correlates to touchdowns, I'm

46:54

thinking maybe explosive play rate among

46:57

these wide receivers, not

46:59

so much tight ends necessarily. Maybe what do

47:02

you think end zone targets red, red zone

47:04

targets for me, red zone targets. Cause

47:06

this is the problem with Pitman, right?

47:08

Just on the surface. He

47:11

doesn't, he hasn't. I still think he's capable

47:13

of more. So I just want to say

47:15

that. And I guess I throw London in

47:17

there too, but Pippin like Pitman has not

47:19

made explosive plays. He's had a low a

47:21

dot and he doesn't make explosive plays. I

47:23

don't think he's ranked higher than 50th in

47:25

explosive play rate among wide receivers with 50

47:27

or more targets in any year of his

47:29

career, maybe one. And,

47:32

and he's not getting a ton of like

47:34

end zone targets. So how do

47:36

you score if you're not making big plays? Well,

47:39

you do what he did last year, which is

47:41

to insert absurd amount of volume, but in score,

47:44

he only scored four touchdowns. Right. So I'm

47:46

maybe I'm going to try to look into that and see if

47:48

there is a stat that helps

47:50

us predict touchdowns a little bit more. Cause it's not

47:52

just getting targets. Some people do

47:54

more with their targets, they big plays or they're, or

47:56

I think a dot is a big part of this

47:58

too. The

50:00

last two years they've thrown 35 combined. That

50:03

was Rivers, right? That's still not that good though. I think Rivers or

50:05

Wentz? Right. No, Rivers was his rookie season. It

50:07

was Wentz. Wentz. It's still not that

50:09

good. Six touchdowns, it's not great. It's

50:11

harder for him to be, if you're

50:13

drafting him like, oh, he could be a top five receiver. He can't

50:15

do it with six touchdowns. Six on 129, if you're looking at 150,

50:18

now we're at seven. Okay,

50:21

all right. You're also not drafting him

50:23

as a top five receiver. Heath, I'm gonna let you

50:25

host the end of the show. You

50:27

have your tight end list? Yeah.

50:30

Yeah. All right, I am sorry. I

50:33

have to run and be a father for

50:35

like 10 minutes when no one's home except for my daughter.

50:38

Thank you guys. Good show. Heath, let us

50:40

know where we can find your work and

50:43

enjoy the rest of the event. See

50:46

ya. So, like

50:48

the guy at tight end who starts

50:50

the list is the guy who's a lot of

50:52

people's tight end one. And

50:55

when I run my projections, he actually

50:57

doesn't come out as tight end one

50:59

because his production last year was based

51:02

pretty heavily on the fact that he

51:04

scored 10 touchdowns on 120 targets at

51:06

Sam LaPorta. He had 86 catches

51:08

for 889 yards. That's awesome for a

51:10

rookie tight end. But I think

51:12

the question is, with Jamison Williams role

51:15

increasing Jamie, is

51:17

Sam LaPorta going to see a big enough increase

51:19

in catches and yards to make up for the

51:21

fact that he's probably going to score like seven

51:23

or eight touchdowns if the volume's the same as

51:25

it was last year? So I

51:27

guess the big question would be is

51:29

how much of Jamison Williams role is

51:31

going to increase. There's 64 targets, I

51:34

believe, that are vacated with Josh Reynolds

51:36

gone. And so does he see

51:38

50 of those, 40 of those, 30 of

51:40

those, how much of

51:42

it obviously is sustainable year over year, the exact same numbers. The

51:45

thing that I like about LaPorta is what you talked about.

51:47

He did this as a rookie. And typically when we see

51:49

these guys make a leap, it's in their second year because

51:52

they understand things a little bit easier and their

51:54

role changes a little bit. And so I

51:56

don't necessarily want to count on him scoring 10 touchdowns. I think

51:59

eight is realistic for him. But

52:01

I also love the fact that Ben

52:04

Johnson stayed, Jared Goff is still

52:06

there. They lost at least a piece of

52:08

the passing game. And I know they

52:10

said Jameer Gibbs love a bigger role and obviously David Montgomery and

52:12

we've talked about this time and time again in the two years

52:14

that this regime has been there. They've scored

52:16

a lot of rushing touchdowns. But I

52:18

don't think you paid Jared Goff what you paid him to necessarily

52:20

say we're just going to continue to be a run heavy team.

52:22

They're going to be balanced and they're going to continue to put

52:25

the ball in the hands of their playmakers. And to me, he's

52:27

their second best playmaker in the passing game behind Mount Russ St.

52:29

Brown. So for me, he is my

52:31

tight end one. It's not based on the touchdowns, it's based on

52:33

the other things improving. But clearly

52:35

this is why we're going to have a lot of debate

52:37

over him versus Kelsey mostly, but

52:39

I think you throw in McBride, you throw in Andrews

52:42

as who else could be tight end one, those four

52:44

guys are going to be very heavily debated. For

52:47

me though, I'm banking on La Porta improving in year

52:49

two in some of the other areas while the touchdowns

52:51

may come down by a couple. So

52:53

Dan, of course, I wanted to save this guy

52:56

for you because he's a former giant. You probably

52:58

have a jersey of his in your closet. Evan

53:01

Ingram, one of

53:03

the guys that I think I get complaints about

53:05

the most because he

53:07

was so much better in terms of I

53:09

didn't full PPR last year. He may have

53:12

ended up finishing like first or second. He

53:14

finished tight end two, but let's be clear.

53:16

The reason he finished that until he went

53:18

into week 18 as tight end six and

53:20

scored 18 point something points like in a

53:22

game that most fantasy managers are not counting

53:25

toward their season week 18. I

53:27

don't take that away from him. He actually scored

53:30

24 points in week 18, but

53:32

it started way before that weeks one

53:34

through 12, Christian

53:36

Kirk was healthy. Evan Ingram

53:39

averaged seven and a half targets per

53:41

game. Week 13, Christian

53:43

Kirk got hurt. Evan

53:46

Ingram averaged 10.2 targets

53:48

per game. And

53:50

virtually his, all of his fantasy value was

53:52

the fact that he just had a ton

53:54

more catches than anybody else. He still didn't

53:56

really score touchdowns. He still wasn't super efficient.

58:00

He never really used his tight ends and Houston didn't

58:02

have as much talent there as a new joker type

58:04

but it's just not how he reads the field in

58:06

my mind. They've also added Jerry Judy to the mix.

58:08

They also drafted another receiver with a day two pick

58:10

I think. Second year in a row

58:12

they've done that Cedric Tillman year before and I'm blanking

58:14

on who they drafted in this class but it

58:17

was somebody solid. And now I'm blanking

58:19

on the team. Yes, Thresh. Maybe that's day

58:21

three receiver but somebody who's actually a talented receiver

58:23

come out of Louisville. So, I just

58:25

think that this is not a

58:27

situation. Joe Flacco also historically used

58:29

his tight ends back in Baltimore using Joe

58:31

Gu so I think there's a lot of

58:34

it was dependent a lot on the quarterback

58:36

situation. Plus, I'm not even sure like I

58:38

want to buy into Cleveland Browns passing game

58:40

with a quarterback coming off shoulder surgery who

58:42

didn't look good at all before the shoulder

58:45

surgery. So, there's a lot of factors there that lead

58:47

me down a path that I'm just avoiding him probably

58:49

altogether in my drafts. I

58:51

think you could just avoid the Browns at least

58:53

in the single digit rounds and if somebody is

58:56

available in the double digit rounds then maybe it's worth a

58:58

flyer but you know, my Mario Cooper was also really good

59:00

with Sean Watson last year so maybe not. Jamie, we have

59:02

to start with you on Trey McBride

59:04

because Dan well documented how much he hates

59:06

Trey McBride. I don't hate him as much

59:09

as it's documented. Let me be clear. I

59:11

just don't like his ranking that high. But

59:13

I think like the question is how

59:16

much does Marvin Harrison impact his volume? So

59:18

how much does the volume regress because they

59:20

have a true number one wide receiver? And

59:23

then the second side of that is like

59:25

Trey McBride played most of last year with

59:27

either terrible quarterback play or Kyler Murray coming

59:30

off of the long absence. How much does

59:32

because and Ben Gretsch said

59:34

this on the Dynasty show. I watching

59:36

him saw this. Dan doesn't necessarily feel the

59:38

same way but he made some plays just

59:41

physically catches over the middle and stuff

59:43

after the catch. You

59:45

look like an elite tight end. Do you

59:47

think that the efficiency gets enough better to make

59:50

up for the loss in volume for McBride? There's

59:53

so much at play for him. You know you mentioned

59:55

the addition of Harrison but it's not just him. I

59:57

mean they've kind of retooled this receiving corps with Harrison.

1:00:00

Jones, you know, and so just adding

1:00:02

pieces, whatever you think of, you

1:00:04

know, Jones and hopefully healthy Michael Wilson

1:00:06

and Greg Dorch, you know, who, as

1:00:09

Kyler Murray said, if he's six foot three, he's the best receiver in

1:00:11

NFL history. You know,

1:00:13

they still have two pass catching backs now and

1:00:15

Connor and Benson. And so, you

1:00:18

know, you said it, he did it last

1:00:20

year, really, it was most of it was

1:00:22

with Kyler Murray, because week six was when

1:00:24

they they got rid of Zach Ertz. And

1:00:26

I believe Kyler was back in

1:00:28

week 10, if I'm not mistaken. So

1:00:32

part of that also the Marquis Brown being in and out of

1:00:34

the lineup, too. I do

1:00:36

think that he belongs in the upper echelon,

1:00:39

the top tier of tight ends, you know, and I think,

1:00:41

you know, this is a different year, because we're not going to

1:00:43

say Kelsey is by himself and then the rest of the

1:00:45

group. I think there's a tier of four with

1:00:48

with Kelsey LaPorta and Andrews. The

1:00:51

question is, a, will he score no touchdowns? Because that's not

1:00:53

something he did last year to a high level.

1:00:56

B, how much do you trust Kyler Murray coming back

1:00:58

from the ACL tier and see, can

1:01:00

he support two guys because we're drafting two guys

1:01:02

in the first four rounds in

1:01:04

Marvin Harrison and Trey McBride

1:01:07

to that level, which we really haven't seen from him consistently. You

1:01:09

know, there was a stretch with Marquis Brown and DeAndre Hopkins, but

1:01:11

for the most part was one or the other. And

1:01:13

Larry Fitzgerald, I think at the beginning of of

1:01:15

Kyler's tenure, if I'm not mistaken, was the guy

1:01:17

there. It's

1:01:20

just a lot to ask of Kyler. That

1:01:22

being said, I think this offense,

1:01:24

you know, you talked about Kemp Stefansi's offense, where

1:01:26

does this office coordinator come from? It comes from

1:01:28

Cleveland. What did we see from this offense last

1:01:30

year? It wasn't just that stretch of production from

1:01:32

McBride. It was Zach Ertz doing some nice things

1:01:35

in the beginning part of the season with Josh

1:01:37

Dobbs, who we know is not exactly the most

1:01:39

prolific passer. So I think the offense

1:01:41

is catered to McBride being successful. I think the quarterback

1:01:43

will be able to rely on

1:01:45

him and produce enough for him that

1:01:48

he should be in this group. But

1:01:51

is he going to come near the touchdown total

1:01:53

for LaPorta and hopefully Kelsey

1:01:56

from what we usually see and even Andrews

1:01:58

probably not. receptions aren't

1:02:00

to the same level that we saw last year,

1:02:03

then I think that bumps him down a little bit even further.

1:02:05

And so for me, he's fourth. And I've

1:02:07

said this a few times, I think he's closer

1:02:09

to Kincaid as Titan five as

1:02:11

he is to Laporta Kelsey as

1:02:13

Titan one. And that's not a knock on him by any

1:02:16

stretch. It's just that I would rather have him as the

1:02:18

fourth Titan as opposed to the first Titan. Jamie

1:02:20

hit on something Dan that I wanted to follow up and

1:02:22

ask you about because I've heard a lot of people this

1:02:25

off season talking about Hunter Henry, the

1:02:27

Patriots, Titans and Alex Van Pelt showing up there and

1:02:29

how they throw a lot of tight end screens. We

1:02:31

saw those go to David and Jokku last year as

1:02:33

well. That was something I noticed

1:02:35

with McBride. He had averaged at the target

1:02:37

of six yards downfield, I think when the

1:02:39

quarterback got in trouble in Arizona, a lot

1:02:41

of times it wasn't a dump off to

1:02:43

the running back. It was a dump

1:02:45

off to Trey McBride in the flat. I

1:02:48

do think that's going to be more open with

1:02:50

Marvin Harrison on the field. Like I think

1:02:52

he is going to help the efficiency of

1:02:54

McBride this year. I think that's

1:02:56

definitely true. McBride will have more efficiency. I

1:02:59

don't want it to seem like I'm dragging McBride.

1:03:01

I think we did a beyond the box where

1:03:03

I watched him make some spectacular catches away from

1:03:05

his frame over the middle of the field. My

1:03:07

issue with McBride is I always felt like he

1:03:09

had more of a Jason Witten type ceiling. I

1:03:11

don't see that much post catch explosion or red

1:03:13

zone prowess. He only had three touchdowns last season.

1:03:15

I think that number could stay the same with

1:03:17

Marvin Harrison there. My question is, will those dump

1:03:20

downs be more likely to go to a player

1:03:22

like Trey Benson now in the mix who was

1:03:24

really good at the screen game at Florida State?

1:03:27

Maybe it's not the case. Maybe the way that

1:03:29

offense works is through the tight end in those

1:03:31

situations as a safety valve, which I still think

1:03:33

could be the case. I could be looking back

1:03:35

at this thing like, you know what? McBride has

1:03:37

so many receptions. It's a one-two

1:03:39

offense. It's very concentrated there. It's

1:03:43

the touchdown upside that caps me from seeing

1:03:45

the total ceiling there. The

1:03:47

last tight end I want to talk about, and

1:03:50

we mentioned him already, Dalton Kincaid, the guy that

1:03:52

Jamie has right behind Trey McBride. Jamie, I think

1:03:54

that the key for Dalton Kincaid having his big

1:03:56

breakout is the touchdowns. Dawson

1:03:59

Knox is still there and despite the fact

1:04:01

that Dawson Knox missed some time last year,

1:04:03

he had one fewer red zone target than Dalton

1:04:05

Kincaid who really had a decent rookie year

1:04:07

except for the fact that he didn't really

1:04:09

score. How do you

1:04:11

think those red zone targets are distributed between Knox

1:04:13

and Kincaid this year? Can

1:04:15

he be a guy who challenges like Laporte to score 8

1:04:17

to 10 touchdowns? I don't know if

1:04:20

that's necessarily the role that they're going to ask them

1:04:22

to play. I think Knox's role stays the same. I

1:04:24

think Kincaid sort of is going

1:04:26

to be a little bit of a Diggs replacement,

1:04:28

a little bit of a Davis replacement, a lot

1:04:30

more of what Kincaid was able to accomplish and

1:04:33

sort of make him the focal point

1:04:35

of the offense. That's not necessarily because he's that

1:04:37

talented. I think it's just because of what's happening

1:04:39

around him. Khalil Shakir is a nice player. He

1:04:41

doesn't profile as an alpha and he's already banged

1:04:43

up. Keon Coleman should eventually become

1:04:45

that guy, at least that's the hope, but he's a

1:04:48

rookie. Curtis Samuel we know is

1:04:50

not that guy. So Kincaid is going to be

1:04:52

somebody that has the opportunity similar to what Travis

1:04:54

Kelsey has done to lead his

1:04:56

team in targets. If that happens from a

1:04:59

passer and a player like Josh Allen, I

1:05:01

don't think the touchdowns necessarily have to just be red

1:05:03

zone touchdowns. You mentioned Dawson Knox and his numbers spiked

1:05:06

in terms of Kincaid when Knox wasn't there. His

1:05:08

numbers also spiked from a target share perspective

1:05:10

and also production perspective when Gabe

1:05:13

Davis missed week 18 through the

1:05:15

playoffs. That was sort

1:05:17

of again, somebody missing, he

1:05:19

stepped up and was more involved. If

1:05:22

you're Joe Brady and you're looking at the pieces that you

1:05:24

have right now at your level, it's

1:05:26

Coleman, I think with a question

1:05:29

exclamation point, like could be great, but we don't

1:05:31

know. Shakir, similar. Samuel,

1:05:34

you know what you have, but not necessarily to the same potential

1:05:36

upside, at least in my mind, as those other guys. And then

1:05:38

as we spent some time earlier this week talking about, I think

1:05:40

James Cook is going to be a guy

1:05:42

that went from 50 catches in the nine games

1:05:44

with Joe Brady to maybe 70 catches in this

1:05:47

offense with Joe Brady. And so

1:05:50

can Kincaid get to eight touchdowns? I think that's

1:05:52

realistic. Again, I don't want to count on that, but I

1:05:54

do think he could be a 90 catch guy. I

1:05:56

think he could be a 900 yard kind of guy. get

1:06:00

six to eight touchdowns, then he's going to be in the top five

1:06:02

range. So that's kind of the player that I'm looking at here is

1:06:04

somebody that has a skill set as a receiving

1:06:07

threat that can take that next step forward. That

1:06:10

will do it for wide receiver and tight

1:06:12

end regression candidates. As Adam mentioned

1:06:14

earlier, my name is Heath Cummings. You can find

1:06:16

me on Twitter at Heath Cummings SR. You can

1:06:19

find me on Tuesdays and Fridays at FFT Dynasty

1:06:21

for Adam, for Jamie, for Dan, for Thomas. We'll

1:06:23

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