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apply. Welcome

1:00

to the Fantasy Footballers DFS

1:02

Embedding Podcast with your hosts

1:05

Kyle Borgannoni and Matthew Betts.

1:14

Welcome in. We're

1:16

back. It's the Fantasy Footballers DFS

1:18

Embedding Podcast. I'm your host Kyle

1:20

Borgannoni and I am joined by

1:22

a special guest Andy

1:25

Holloway. I'm happy to be here Kyle.

1:28

It's been a while. It's

1:31

been a minute. Yeah, and my

1:33

cadence was thrown off because every

1:35

episode I try to do the same thing. I

1:37

try to come up with a nickname for Betts. Oh,

1:39

you don't get to do that. How about like

1:42

not at work guy? Guy

1:44

that decided he wanted to go to the beach.

1:48

You would never take a week off ever. No,

1:50

no, not when I'm needed Kyle and today I

1:52

was you know, you said you put

1:54

out the call the bat signal went up and

1:57

I responded because I care

1:59

about this city. you

2:01

care about the people. And

2:03

on this episode, I'm interested

2:05

of Andy's perspective. Okay, so we're

2:07

gonna be talking best ball ADP

2:10

movement, but Andy's gonna have his

2:12

projections that are in the ultimate draft kit available

2:15

to kind of talk through some of these players. It's easy

2:17

to be in a draft to take a

2:20

player based on sentiment or this is what my

2:22

team needs. And forget, we actually

2:24

are looking at real projections of what they're

2:26

doing in each game. So we've

2:28

been building that out all summer. You

2:30

just, I mean, you do some tweaks all the

2:32

time. I saw some Jayden Daniels tweaks. Who will

2:34

talk about on this episode? That,

2:37

did your opinion change or just like, hey, I got

2:40

this offense. Yeah,

2:43

slightly more optimism around what

2:45

they might be able to do. I

2:48

think one of the biggest challenges for fantasy

2:50

players every off season is not

2:52

just hitting repeat on

2:56

certain offenses and teams because

2:58

you're fatigued and tired and hated watching

3:00

them play football. And Washington was one

3:02

of those teams last year, Carolina, New

3:04

England. Every year there's a handful

3:07

of teams where they become the punchline, right?

3:09

By the second half of the season, it's ineptitude

3:12

is part and parcel with

3:14

thinking about them. So just

3:17

understanding that the

3:19

floor for Jayden Daniels of healthy, which look,

3:22

you can make whatever jokes you want about

3:25

whether he has the physical capability

3:27

to stay healthy at the NFL

3:29

level. He's going to stay alive.

3:31

Yeah, pretty much. Yeah, whether the

3:34

very popsicle stick built man

3:36

will survive, but you

3:39

presume health. And

3:41

if he's healthy and he starts for

3:43

the Washington commanders, there's going to be

3:45

a baseline, a rushing baseline that is

3:48

going to vault him above, maybe even

3:51

where his NFL success will be. The

3:56

team might be well below 500, but. the

4:01

dynamic nature of what he does,

4:03

I think, and the weapons that

4:05

he has, McClaren's capable, Echler out of the

4:07

backfield, Brian Robinson showed a lot last year.

4:10

You know, if this team is losing ballgames,

4:12

he's going to have to do a lot.

4:14

So keeping an open mind to

4:16

that, I think allowed me to move. I think what

4:18

my adjustment was was just getting his rushing yards, a

4:21

tick above 700 on the season. I

4:24

had him in the 600 range and

4:27

just found that to be a little bit unrealistic for 17 weeks.

4:30

We try to take a team by team approach when

4:33

we look at the rankings and in our best ball

4:35

primer of just like, how does this team work? And

4:38

then you look at the ADPs. And so it's very

4:40

rare to find a rushing quarterback at

4:42

that point in the draft, you know, quarterback 10,

4:44

11 is where he's going in best ball that

4:47

can elevate all the other players, you

4:49

know, it's tough to click Terry McClaren.

4:51

When you think about what they did last year, it's

4:54

tough to click Jehan Dotson, but in a best ball

4:56

format, it's like you can easily stack those two

4:58

together with Jayden Daniels and

5:01

kind of go along for the right. And then I've kind of

5:03

come around to Cliff. I, it's easy for

5:05

me to make the jokes, but looking

5:07

what he did with Kyler early on, I kind of forget.

5:09

And I know you were in the thick of it there

5:11

in Arizona, but it's like Cliff and

5:13

Kyler was a good combination for a couple of years.

5:16

Yeah, I think what made Arizona fans frustrated

5:18

was certain player utilization, but that didn't mean

5:21

that the offense wasn't in the top half.

5:23

Kyler had very successful fantasy seasons.

5:26

You know, Jayden Daniels is a very good

5:28

passer. Like this

5:31

off season feels like it's been defined in part

5:33

by everybody being on board with Anthony Richardson, you

5:35

know, some people to the degree of a top

5:37

three, top four player. And

5:40

here's Jayden Daniels, who

5:42

isn't coming off of multiple injuries, who isn't

5:45

still sore and throwing with the opposite hand.

5:47

He's a better passer. He's a much better

5:49

passer. I mean, just like Kyler is a

5:51

much better passer than a

5:53

lot of the Russian quarterbacks beforehand. So, you

5:56

know, we need to keep that in mind and

6:00

not just- let the Washington funk

6:02

from last year kind of

6:04

permeate and overwhelm our senses in my

6:06

opinion. So definitely a lot of opportunity

6:08

there. And Jane Daniels, I mean, I

6:11

have them at 12

6:13

in six point quarterback leagues. And

6:17

I think that's the highest of the group. That's not,

6:20

you know, that's not where Anthony Richardson is being

6:22

statted out. So, you

6:25

know, Richardson came into the league with

6:27

very little experience, throwing the football and

6:31

doing it well. I put

6:33

this, I just sent this to you because this

6:35

stat the other day blew my mind. I got

6:37

to give a shout out to on Twitter, McNamara

6:39

Dynasty, since he graduated high school,

6:42

Anthony Richardson has only thrown 477 passes. Like

6:44

that's, that's,

6:47

that's like a year. Oh, yeah. It's like one

6:49

year. It's funny

6:51

to think about that. And obviously that's just part

6:54

of it. The rushing upsides there, but you can

6:56

get all of those, all those projections you want

6:58

in the ultimate draft kit or best ball rankings,

7:00

best ball primer. We're updating that

7:02

thing all the time. And Betts and I are even

7:04

putting out some season long player props if you want

7:06

to be a part of that. But I

7:08

had a quick question that is specific to

7:11

you, my friend. And I think it's specific to

7:13

the show because our experience

7:15

with DFS Betts and I've been, I think

7:18

this is your five, maybe six, five of

7:20

us doing this podcast. Hey, didn't you celebrate a

7:22

five year anniversary at some point with this show?

7:26

I did. I thought you posted that. Yeah. I

7:28

think, I think it's maybe five. It's a, it's

7:30

my ninth year with, with

7:32

ballers and it's your 10th year. So

7:35

we've been around the block. Goodness. DFS

7:39

is a little new to Arizona and relative to

7:41

the podcast. It was 2021, I believe, 2020, somewhere

7:47

around there where it started becoming more and

7:49

more normal. Yeah.

7:51

Regulation. Embedding. Yeah. Yeah.

7:54

Regulation started to sweep the country

7:56

and become legalized and we couldn't

7:58

participate before. So

8:01

that was a big part of us

8:03

getting interested. Yeah. And so Betts and

8:05

I got to lead that for a while. And then all of a

8:07

sudden Andy gets to just

8:09

put his toes in and

8:12

way back in 2021, just to reminisce

8:14

here, you, my friend, won the

8:16

Millie Maker on a Thursday night

8:18

game, which is just a wild thing. And I went

8:20

back that night and searched, you

8:22

know, what happened because I think what you're really good

8:24

at, and I think this is really a good tease

8:27

for the season, is that showdown strategy

8:29

is just kind of how your brain works. It's

8:31

kind of your thing when it comes

8:33

to DFS and Betts writes a weekly article on

8:35

just the Thursday night game. But that

8:37

night went from you and Jason

8:39

thought things were going to go a certain way with

8:41

Christian McCaffrey and then thought

8:44

things were completely over because he

8:46

was injured and done to

8:50

my friend, you won the Millie Maker with, thanks to

8:52

Sam Darnold. Yeah. I mean, Sam

8:54

Darnold, I think he had a couple of rushing

8:56

touchdowns that night. I had Chuba Hubbard stuffed in

8:58

the lineup. So the CMC injury meant

9:00

that Hubbard came in and produced. I

9:03

remembered, I feel like the best call

9:05

of the night was, was

9:08

actually Anthony Miller, who had

9:10

recently arrived in Houston and they utilized

9:12

him. He scored a touchdown in that

9:14

game. I don't remember,

9:17

like you, you linked the video of

9:19

when I comically announced it on the

9:21

main podcast and put on

9:23

my golden million dollar bill hat

9:26

that we had laying around the office to

9:29

prove that I hadn't changed at all after

9:31

winning it. Same guy. But, but

9:33

what was funny about that night, and I

9:36

don't remember if I shared it on

9:38

the main podcast or on the foot cast or anything

9:41

was the fact that

9:43

I didn't get to follow the game live

9:45

with a friend for the fourth quarter. So

9:47

I had been, I had been

9:49

following it along. I was nowhere near the top in

9:51

the first half. I was

9:54

happy about the ice. I remember the Anthony Miller touchdown happened

9:56

in the first half and I was like, oh, that's awesome.

9:58

That's like a, that was a dart throw. He's like, I

10:00

got $200 a player or something and I got it. And

10:03

then I had like, I had a coffee date

10:05

with a friend where we were supposed to like

10:07

a long time, hadn't seen him in forever, just

10:10

to catch up with an old friend, it was the one night

10:12

we could do it. And I, you know, look, nobody goes into

10:14

their showdown. I, despite

10:16

what they say, thinking they're about to walk away with

10:18

a victory. So you

10:21

might put your lineups in, a lot of people play,

10:23

you know, 10, 20 lineups, whatever. I

10:25

had two lineups in. So

10:27

I definitely wasn't gonna follow it super closely. Other

10:29

than the fact I watch every football game. So

10:32

I'm, I'm sitting there and like, I'm having this,

10:34

you know, chatting with an old friend from high

10:36

school, we're catching up on life

10:38

and kids and family. And then I'm starting to get

10:40

blown up on my phone. And

10:43

people are like, you know, Jason knew

10:45

what my lineup was. And he's like, hey, this

10:47

just happened. Then this just happened. And

10:49

then I just, I remember it to this moment. Like

10:51

I'm sitting there just sipping on a coffee and

10:54

I pull my phone up and it says first. Like

10:56

it says I'm in first place in

10:58

the fourth. And then at this point, I'm

11:01

a bad friend from that point on because I'm

11:04

trying to have this conversation, but I can't

11:06

help but check my phone every few minutes

11:08

to see what happened. And then

11:10

it was like, the game just

11:12

ended. Like it was, it was

11:15

absolutely, I know it'll be a

11:17

once in a lifetime because that's just such an

11:19

impossible thing. But I think I

11:21

tied with 12 people or something like that or 20 people. I

11:23

don't remember what it was. Yeah, you got to

11:25

split it. And it was just a funny night because it

11:27

was from, terror

11:30

because Christian McCaffrey went down.

11:32

Yeah. And to quote Jason, I

11:34

stopped watching because I stopped living. It

11:37

was such a tough night to then go

11:39

from that. And yeah, it

11:41

was really fun. But I wanted to point

11:43

out that there's something with the showdown strategy

11:46

with DFS that a lot of people

11:48

who feel like, hey, I can't throw 150 darts in the

11:50

MilliMaker every

11:52

single week, you can have fun.

11:54

And we have contests for that, but showdown

11:57

is a different strategy. We're going one game at a

11:59

time. and you're going to game theory. So the

12:01

way that you built your lineup was a

12:03

non-CMC lineup. And Jason

12:05

kind of pointed out to you like, hey, if you

12:07

don't have CMC, might as well have Chuba Hubbard in

12:09

there. We don't wish for injury or anything like that.

12:11

But the theory part- Yeah, if this,

12:13

then that. Yeah, the theory part I

12:15

think is what is most valuable. And

12:18

we go through a lot of strategy related stuff.

12:20

We'll talk about all those all throughout the year.

12:22

So is Showdown still your favorite part

12:24

of DFS? It's my favorite

12:26

part of DFS because I

12:29

feel like I can concentrate the

12:32

appropriate amount of effort on one night. Like

12:35

I'm not a heavy DFS player, but

12:40

that night is isolated. And I feel like I

12:42

have the bandwidth to think about the

12:44

game at the kind of critical level

12:46

for DFS in isolation

12:48

and have a chance and follow it

12:50

along and enjoy it. So it's an

12:52

enjoyment thing. Like obviously I could spend

12:56

DFS concentration on every

12:58

single matchup for

13:00

Sunday. Because you have to think differently for

13:03

DFS and how you're building lineups

13:05

for the MilliMaker every week. And

13:07

I just don't enjoy that process

13:10

and that much time invested. Because

13:13

it's not why I play fantasy. But on

13:15

Thursdays, I didn't set out when

13:17

the regulation happened. I thought, would I like props? Would

13:19

I like the Sunday? Would I like the Showdowns? The

13:22

Showdowns was at the bottom of the list. But

13:24

I do enjoy them the most because it adds

13:27

a little something to the weekend

13:29

and I'm watching one game that

13:31

I can think about critically. Yeah,

13:33

and I think for our company, we get to

13:35

compare lineups and stuff like that where it's so

13:37

hard on a Sunday. There's just so many things

13:39

going on. So I also encourage people like for

13:42

your league, we have certain prizes in

13:44

one of my leagues where whoever does best on that

13:46

Thursday night, you can do a free

13:48

contest, you can do a dollar contest, whatever. But

13:50

you can actually win prizes. It's

13:52

another way for your league to be even more invested

13:55

on a Thursday night. So yeah, I'm just

13:57

excited for... It's right down... right down

13:59

the pipe, right? We're like a month and a half away from

14:02

DFS. It's super fun and just

14:04

to throw one other thing in there, I think

14:06

it's the interdependency thing for Sunday that makes

14:09

me love Thursday night or isolated games too,

14:11

because you can nail what's

14:13

gonna happen in a game for

14:15

three or four or five games on Sunday, but

14:18

if you got one or two wrong, it's

14:21

over. But if you nail what happens on a

14:23

Thursday or a Monday night or an

14:25

isolated game, you

14:28

win. Yeah,

14:30

I mean, that's it. Yeah,

14:33

and you were able to take

14:35

the winnings, give a bunch

14:37

back and stuff like that, but I

14:39

think a lot of our winners over the time, like in

14:41

our Discord are like, oh, I'm getting how to play this

14:43

game and this is actually fun. So we try to make

14:45

sure we give out an approach where you get to teach

14:47

stuff, but all of our stuff in the DFS pass. Today,

14:50

we're gonna be talking some best ball. Best

14:57

ball bonanza. We're

15:03

gonna look at the biggest ADP

15:05

changes in best ball over

15:08

the last month or so. It's really

15:10

easy to look back in February

15:13

and start poking fun of like, oh man, what do we

15:15

not know? The best example

15:18

is Drake London, because there is

15:20

a point where Drake London in February, if you

15:23

were one of those DJs that were playing best

15:25

ball in February, you could have gotten Drake London

15:27

at wide receiver 26. Wow.

15:30

Which just sounds juicy. And

15:33

I found a show where I actually got mad at you,

15:35

Andy. I really like looking back. Yeah? Yeah,

15:38

I was pretty mad because you guys

15:40

talked up Drake London, we had done some research

15:42

of what the offense could look like. They didn't

15:44

have Kirk Cousins yet. And

15:47

in March, his ADP rose three spots within

15:49

a day. I was very, very mad about

15:51

that. And now he's going as

15:53

wide receiver 10. So, you know, you're

15:56

not gonna get the value anymore. It's done. We're

15:58

not gonna talk about players like this. because that's

16:00

a dramatic change for Drake London to change a

16:03

quarterback and

16:06

then draft another quarterback for some reason. Real

16:09

quick though, wide receiver 10.

16:12

Do you feel like he's being drafted at his ceiling? I

16:15

do, yeah, I think that's exactly what's happening.

16:17

And I think that there's a tremendous amount

16:19

of risk associated with drafting him

16:21

at his ceiling with just

16:24

the variables in the offensive philosophy

16:26

change quarterback. I

16:29

think he's a super talented player. I

16:31

feel like I, I feel like I stated

16:34

him with a tremendous amount

16:36

of respect to the talent we talked about

16:38

and I guess heard his ADP earlier in the

16:41

off season. I have wide

16:43

receiver 17 right now as

16:45

my ranking, but

16:48

I don't think the ceiling is top five. I don't

16:50

think the ceiling is even, I

16:53

think 10 is about right. It's

16:56

so tough when you are drafting in

16:59

a room and you're in the middle of the second round and

17:01

you're staring down Drake London as

17:03

your wide receiver one. Because the format

17:05

with best ball is so wide receiver heavy that

17:07

if you do skip it for a round or

17:09

two, then you feel like you have to play

17:11

catch up. One of the rules that Betts and

17:13

I bring up a lot is like you need

17:15

at least four wide receivers in best

17:17

ball format since you're starting three and you're probably

17:19

flexing another. You need at least four wide receivers

17:22

through the first six rounds or seven rounds. And

17:25

when you're banking on a player at his ceiling to do

17:27

this, it's really tough. So I

17:30

like Drake London. I've tried to make sure that

17:32

I look at him without a Falcons lens, but

17:34

at this point you are drafting a player like

17:36

that at his ceiling where he was going in

17:39

a very different spot a couple months ago. But in

17:42

general. He can have a monstrous uptick

17:45

in every important measurable stat

17:49

and still end up disappointing based

17:51

on that ADP which would be really

17:53

sad. I know last year

17:55

you can chalk it up to whatever, but

17:57

we've done that before, right? We did that with DJ Morr for four

17:59

years. We did that with Terry McClaren for four years. He

18:03

was 69 for 905 and two last year. Like

18:08

six touchdowns, you

18:10

know, you want to give him 90 catches, cool. You want

18:12

to give him 1200 yards, cool. That's not

18:14

enough to get wide receiver 10. Yeah.

18:18

You know, I've seen teams where they're taking Breece in

18:20

the first round, then they're following up with Drake London.

18:23

And you're going into round three saying like,

18:26

I need to still make up wide receiver.

18:28

So I think London's being drafted a

18:30

bit high. If you want to get Kirk Cousins later on a

18:32

stack, that's fine. But in general for ADP,

18:34

it's really hard for a player to rise that much,

18:37

unless there's a dramatic change. Like if you're looking at Drake

18:39

London over the last, you know, 30 days,

18:42

there's not really been a change. He's going where he's

18:44

going. People are drafting him there. When

18:46

it does change, it's usually a news blurb

18:48

that recently happened. Some type of coach speak

18:51

or somebody got injured. And I

18:53

hate telling people this, but in the next

18:55

month or two, there will be guys that

18:58

change everything. And I hate that part. That's

19:01

why some people say drafting more in May

19:03

is great because you get values, but you're

19:05

also about to hit all these other

19:07

players. We always tell people

19:09

draft a bunch in May and June, maybe wait a

19:11

little bit if you want to, but then August, September

19:13

is where we actually get the real

19:15

piece of news of like, this guy's the real backup

19:17

running back. Right now, there's so many

19:19

running backs that people are drafting that are just dead spots. They're

19:21

not even going to be on the roster. They're going to get

19:23

cut. You know, Kyle, the more you talk about it, the

19:26

more it just feels like maybe you're gambling a

19:28

little bit. Potentially.

19:31

Yeah. Especially an

19:33

outcome with best ball too. It's like you

19:35

are drafting a team and

19:37

waiting for an outcome that's happening in December.

19:40

Yep. And

19:42

then we're trying to, you know, get everything in a row

19:44

and tell me what's going to happen. So

19:46

many things that can go wrong with best ball. Let's

19:48

take a quick break. And then we'll talk about the

19:50

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20:25

store, like now. Go! So

20:32

I figured I'd look at May 1st since

20:34

that's post the NFL Draft and

20:37

then up to now. So about a month and a

20:39

half and I chose a random day just to do

20:41

it so in the last... Oh

20:44

yeah, random. Yeah, just decided to

20:46

use that. But the largest rise

20:48

in ADP of any player, we'll go through some

20:50

of these fun ones in their specific positions. The

20:52

largest rise in ADP since May 1st makes a

20:55

lot of sense. 78

20:57

spots from undrafted to RB39

20:59

is Ezekiel, Elliott, and Bestball.

21:03

Have you sorted out the Dallas

21:05

backfield at all of, I

21:08

think it's going to be more Zeke. I mean,

21:10

Rico's in year, what, five or six and we're kind

21:12

of saying like, we think he could be the guy,

21:14

he's younger, but I don't

21:16

know. I feel like they could still even add another

21:18

player to that backfield. Yeah,

21:20

I mean, he's Rico Doudel, man. He

21:25

jumps off the page as somebody that

21:27

can plug a hole, not

21:30

a linchpin. So yeah, I mean, Zeke having

21:32

a team seems to be a major

21:36

driver in his ADP moving

21:39

forward. I don't have

21:41

either of these players having meaningful fantasy seasons,

21:44

but if you get the

21:46

opportunity to capture the

21:48

touchdown situation in Dallas from time to time,

21:50

when things go that way, I mean, I

21:53

believe, and I don't have the number in

21:55

front of me, I

21:57

believe they threw the football at quite a bit in

21:59

the. in the red zone. I don't know

22:01

if you remember out off the top of your head. It

22:03

was just that Pollard was so efficient. He couldn't get

22:05

in. Yeah. And then the touchdowns did

22:07

go that way. So it's right. Like when you look at

22:10

their numbers inside the red zone, it was like, man, Dak

22:12

was awesome. But Pollard was also

22:14

so bad. It was 16 carries inside the

22:16

five, turned into three touchdowns. So I think

22:19

there's opportunity. I think what we're saying is somebody

22:22

there could be valuable for best ball purposes,

22:25

you might say, you might guess the right one for

22:27

a couple of weeks, and then it ends up being

22:29

the other. So I'm fine taking shots of where they're

22:31

going. I mean, right now Zeke is 127. So

22:35

really he's like your RB three or four, but you're

22:38

also banking on a lot from a 28 year old. I

22:40

mean, yeah, I think your peak, your

22:43

dream is that you have the

22:45

Dallas Gus Edwards situation. That's

22:48

kind of how I look at that, which would

22:50

be awesome. I mean, if you did anything like Gus

22:52

last year, maybe

22:54

Zeke's entering his Lindale white phase of his career.

22:56

I don't really know, but I know that Dak

22:59

and Citi will drive the offense and Zeke

23:02

is, it's hard to be worse

23:04

than Pollard in the red zone. So

23:07

with wide receivers, I was looking at some

23:09

of the bigger declines because in general, this

23:11

is a wide receiver format. Everybody's drafting all

23:14

these guys. This year of

23:16

the top 36 picks, 24

23:19

of them are wide receivers. So in other words, two thirds

23:21

of the first three rounds are wide receivers. It's

23:24

just up the board. We're seeing this in redraft and

23:26

everywhere else. There was

23:28

one player though that had the

23:30

largest decline of any wide receiver. And he was

23:32

a rookie, which is super rare to find a

23:34

rookie wide receiver going down. It

23:37

was Troy Franklin, Andy. And I don't know if you need

23:39

a victory lap. I don't know if you need to tell

23:41

everybody, but it's kind

23:43

of a big deal to go from a round 10,

23:45

11 player right after the draft

23:47

to right now, he's going as wide receiver 77.

23:50

I think the people

23:52

are sun setting on the idea of like,

23:54

you know what? Maybe I held

23:56

onto my priors for too long. Cause I liked

23:58

Franklin before the draft. You weren't as high, but

24:01

I mean, that's so late. I

24:04

mean, that's drop of almost like six rounds. I like how you

24:06

put that. I was less high. Like, cause you and Jason

24:09

were clearly very high when you had

24:11

your opinion. No, that was almost the

24:13

biggest like bully peer pressure situation I've

24:15

ever had. Of course, yeah. Because I

24:17

was not, like we all do film

24:19

study. We all watch the tape and

24:21

it's subjective and that's how scouting works.

24:23

And there aren't universal, you

24:26

know, outside of the statistics, there aren't universal things

24:28

with your eyeballs that you're like, ah, you know,

24:30

you think this player's good. You think they're not.

24:33

I didn't like him that much. I thought maybe I just

24:35

watched the wrong stuff. I mean, am

24:38

I gonna victory lap? Yeah, I'm not

24:40

victory lapping on the ADP on victory lapping

24:42

on the draft selection that the NFL didn't

24:46

think he was as good as the draft

24:48

knit community, but it doesn't

24:51

mean he has no chance of producing. It just means the

24:53

chances are low. Yeah, we

24:55

did this study a couple episodes ago where

24:57

it was like, if you were drafted on

24:59

day three, you basically have

25:01

like a 7% chance of

25:04

being a top 24 wide receiver in

25:06

any stage of your career. Like it's just not

25:08

happening. So I think in year one, there's a

25:11

lot. You can put whatever narrative you want

25:13

with Bo Nicks, Troy Franklin, but

25:15

you know, that decline makes sense to me. Like

25:17

that's the biggest thing that I wanna take away

25:19

from this episode is when we look at the

25:22

ADPs that have changed, does it make sense with

25:24

this player, with their role in

25:26

the offense and what you need for best ball.

25:28

So rookies in general, see a

25:30

pretty big rise. Like it's very rare for a rookie

25:32

wide receiver just to fall off unless there's an injury.

25:34

So we've talked a lot that

25:37

the ADPs this year for rookie wide receivers

25:39

are just out of control.

25:42

And so I wanna get your temperature on

25:44

some of these guys that this is where

25:46

they're at the rookie wide receivers. And

25:48

then you kind of go through your projections Andy and

25:50

tell me like, does that make sense? So like Marvin

25:53

Harrison Jr., he's held pretty

25:55

steady this summer as wide receiver

25:57

nine 13th off the board. He's a fringe.

26:00

one, two turn kind of guy. I

26:03

feel like he goes where he's supposed to go,

26:06

but it's still hard clicking a button for the

26:08

highest rookie wide receiver ever drafted. I

26:11

agree, and it always will be. It'll always be

26:13

hard to click that button. I have them at

26:15

nine exactly in my projections. So I

26:18

think that you have the highest probability

26:21

of a rookie wide receiver to come

26:23

in and break a bunch of rookie

26:25

records with Marvin Harrison

26:28

alongside Kyler Murray this year. No

26:32

competition. Murray has

26:35

had MVP stretches in his career.

26:38

We've seen him with DeAndre Hopkins

26:40

for long periods of time. You

26:42

know, hyper target, the best talent, and all the

26:44

reports out of camp are

26:46

just exemplary for Marvin Harrison, which is why

26:48

he was drafted where he was drafted. So

26:51

Harrison feels okay. I

26:53

wonder too if likability

26:55

factor impacts people

26:59

wanting these guys on their team, right? Like it's

27:01

not just probability. I love him

27:03

so much. Every day I've clicked trying

27:05

to get a jersey or a shirt because my

27:07

son's already like him a lot, Marvin

27:10

Harrison. And I'm sure everybody loves him

27:12

there. So yes, he's very

27:14

like, well, I want him to do well.

27:16

I'm selfishly want him because of my dynasty

27:18

rosters because you'll never touch him, Andy. You'll

27:20

never ever get him first. Like

27:23

outside of your bias, did

27:25

any of my offers even approach realistic?

27:27

No. Okay. We're so

27:29

smitten and so excited. I mean,

27:31

so if I offered you like

27:34

CMC and Josh Allen today for

27:36

him. We

27:38

could talk. Yeah, okay. Well, that's way too

27:40

much. So

27:43

let's talk about some of these other rookie wide receivers.

27:45

Malik neighbors has been pretty steady. I think we've kind

27:47

of come around like, okay, the volume's going to be

27:49

there, but this could

27:51

be an inefficient offense. Roma Dunsey is the

27:54

one that has dropped

27:56

in ADPs down six spots from where

27:58

he was a month ago. Is that

28:00

why? Wide receiver 38, do you think that people are

28:02

souring a bit on like, okay, I was excited about

28:04

this offense, I love his draft capital, but it's like,

28:06

I think he's gonna be the wide receiver three on

28:08

this team. So that's a rich price to pay when

28:10

he was wide receiver 32. Yeah,

28:13

and you're getting more to the place

28:15

where I think

28:17

it's attractive for the upside. You

28:22

know, in Chicago, you can see them having

28:24

a very successful season without

28:26

a lot of a dunes a dependency. You can't

28:28

see that for New York. They need neighbors. You

28:31

can't see that for Arizona. They can't

28:33

succeed without Harrison, but

28:35

people, I mean, even today, I think Roma dunes,

28:37

a returning punts was brought up as they talked

28:39

about a dunes, a the, I don't know if

28:41

it was the head coach or the offensive coordinator

28:44

talking about him being

28:46

a four down player referring to punt return.

28:48

So like, that's

28:50

cool. There you go. I mean, that's like, it

28:53

tells you a little bit more about where he slots in.

28:55

Now I know enough from playing

28:57

for, you know, doing this job for 10 years

28:59

and playing for 20 years that it's

29:02

like two games, right? Like if a player comes out

29:06

and a dunes a has 200 200

29:09

yard game, like it's over, like it's

29:11

done. Like he he's going to have the opportunities

29:13

the rest of the season. He comes out and

29:15

has a monstrous week, one, two, three. It

29:18

changes everything. But the probability

29:20

has gone down because people see the path wide

29:24

receiver 38. I mean, I don't

29:26

think I have him ranked anywhere near that. I

29:29

think in best ball. So he's like,

29:31

what's that a six round pick. So now he's

29:34

in the forties for him. Okay.

29:37

So in terms of the format though, in the upside, you

29:39

get where he's going. Oh, I think this is okay. I

29:41

think that's why I was saying like 32 does seem a

29:44

little bit like

29:47

it's going to mess you up a lot. If

29:50

you take him there and it doesn't work out.

29:52

Whereas 38 40 42, depending on your draft, I

29:56

think he's worth the upside for what he could

29:58

produce. Yeah. in this format, it's

30:00

like if he's your wide receiver, four, you

30:02

feel happy. You've already gotten your studs, you

30:04

get to go away. A couple more, Lad

30:07

McConkie is up five spots from where he

30:09

was May 1st. That's

30:11

fine. What do

30:13

you think? I think that the

30:15

Chargers offense has been one that we've talked about,

30:18

it's like there's values. It's like nobody

30:20

really knows where to go in. The first

30:22

drafted player is McConkie, and

30:24

then it's like Herbert's down the road, Johnson's

30:27

down the road, Palmer's kind of gone up a

30:29

bit in the last month, but really

30:32

this is an offense. It's like it's rare to

30:34

take a team that has a projected win total

30:36

of nine and a half wins, and

30:38

they don't have a player that shows up until 70th

30:41

off the board. It's like this is a good team.

30:43

They're gonna have wins, they're gonna score points. Yeah, these

30:45

are always opportunities for value. I mean, I don't have

30:47

any of the top three wide receivers in Los Angeles

30:49

inside my top 50, but

30:52

I have no question that someone on

30:54

that roster will be inside the top 50. So

30:56

it's just what can I

30:59

stat these guys out for, and

31:01

who's going to be able to get it done? I mean, they

31:03

also have DJ Charck in the mix over

31:05

there, and who knows, Charck could end up being the highest

31:07

producer. I don't think that's an

31:09

impossibility on that offense. So

31:13

on the main show, yesterday I talked about the

31:15

fact that when I brought up

31:17

Quentin Johnson as a possible sleeper candidate, it

31:20

was in the context of the worst offenses

31:22

in football last year, Carolina

31:25

with Adam Thielen, Denver with Cortland

31:27

Sutton. I know

31:29

this one's wild, but New England, in the first four

31:31

weeks, I think there were two monster weeks from Kendrick

31:34

Bourne, there

31:36

are always opportunities on

31:38

bad offenses, and

31:41

Los Angeles is not gonna be a bad offense.

31:43

They might be a lower pass volume offense, but

31:45

there'll be a good offense, which means touchdown opportunities.

31:48

Yeah, exactly. Yeah, so I

31:50

think a lot of these wide receivers, Brian Thomas

31:52

has been down a couple of spots, but I

31:54

still like where he goes. That's interesting to me,

31:56

by the way, because I saw this list that

31:58

you had in the show, Doc. And

32:01

I saw the rookies and then I just went and I

32:03

was trying to figure out how Brian

32:05

Thomas went up and he didn't.

32:08

Now, was this just because

32:10

the reaction was really strong when

32:13

he was drafted and now we're

32:15

balancing? I think that's what it

32:17

is. I think over time, the way that drafters are

32:19

is that it kind of, I mean, you get a

32:21

better feel for where players

32:23

are going. And also a lot

32:25

of this with best ball is where's their stacking

32:27

partners going? So a lot of players kind of

32:30

filter to certain sides of the board. Like you

32:32

see it with the Eagles now where it's like

32:34

that three, four turn, it's

32:36

going to be people saying like I'm going to stack

32:38

Devonta Smith and Hertz together where Brian

32:40

Thomas is kind of lining up where people

32:42

are stacking him with Lawrence, especially after that

32:44

contract extension. But there's also some movements, some

32:47

other guys in this range is also

32:49

a lot of the Kansas city wide receivers, which they're

32:52

all together. No one really knows what to do with

32:54

worthy. Hollywood Brown is one of my

32:56

least favorite. I brought it up on this podcast. Like I

32:58

don't like his ADP. And then Rishi

33:01

Rice is one of those where after

33:03

the news broke in May, I mean, his

33:05

ADP took a free fall. And

33:08

now it's actually starting to rise up again where

33:10

it was like this overcorrection of the pendulum where

33:12

it's like, oh, well, yes, he could

33:14

get suspended but this is still a really good player

33:16

who might be the wider CBR one for this team.

33:18

So overcorrection is Kanaker. I think

33:20

I like where Brian Thomas is going. I

33:22

just took him on a best ball mania team, but

33:25

with Rice that's the one I wanted to bring up is like his

33:28

spot. He's dropped 27 spots since May

33:30

and it makes sense knowing his suspension.

33:33

Do you think he's still the wide receiver one

33:35

on that team apart from Kelsey? Like how do

33:37

you have them stat it out? Not knowing the

33:39

suspension. Yeah, I mean, the suspension is really tough

33:43

obviously. And it feels like the same kind of variable

33:45

you're talking about when you draft in February or

33:48

when you suffer a pre-season injury, like you're

33:51

making bets, you could get

33:54

lucky on the right side of that bet.

33:57

But, you know, I think Rice is the

33:59

number one. Yes, I think, I think when he's healthy and back

34:01

on the field, the

34:03

answer is yes. Now, if the suspension is 10

34:06

games or 12 games or something, uh,

34:08

to where the team can build a complete offense

34:10

and rapport without him, you're going to throw some

34:12

worry into the mix if Hollywood

34:14

plays well, uh,

34:16

if Xavier worthy shows something.

34:19

So, um, the way

34:21

it's tough, because the way I have him set it out

34:23

is, you know, he's a wide receiver 56, but that's because

34:25

I'm not giving him. The

34:27

majority of the season and I, and so

34:31

when it's a even playing field, when everybody's on

34:33

the field, yes, I think Rashi Rice is going

34:35

to be the guy. Yeah. It's

34:37

so hard to give clear advice of this

34:39

is what will happen. Betts has been pretty

34:41

bullish saying like, Hey, he's dropped to the

34:43

point where I am drafting him, where he

34:45

was going in the eighties and

34:48

now it's at the point where it's kind of going up

34:50

again in the seventies. So I think, do you look at

34:52

it the same way as a player that the

34:55

injury return is mysterious and

34:58

you know, like, let's say there's another star, like

35:00

you could pick somebody outlet, uh, let's

35:03

just say DJ more, right? Let's say DJ more,

35:05

you know, he's going to miss the first six weeks due to, you know,

35:08

whatever, uh, they put them on their pop

35:10

or something. Um, do

35:13

you view it the exact same way or is it, is the, the

35:16

suspension adding an extra negative

35:18

variable? I think the

35:21

suspension in best ball, because it's like

35:23

I'm drafting, I'm not having to figure it out anything

35:25

else is like, I want to draft as if I

35:27

get first. It actually encourages me to

35:29

take shots at these kinds of players because

35:31

there isn't some injury thing we're dealing with. Like

35:34

Kamara last year, you could have said like,

35:36

Oh, I don't really want to buy into him once

35:38

you knew the suspension, you were like,

35:40

okay, his ADPs going to be at a spot where

35:42

then it's, I know what I'm going to get, know

35:44

what I can count on weeks for through whatever when

35:46

he was awesome. He was like the RB two from

35:48

week four to 15. So in best

35:50

ball season, I'm fine

35:53

with this. If it's not now, morally speaking, there's all

35:55

the other things that you're dealing with with actual

35:58

suspensions, but Rishi right. Rice

36:00

seems like a player that if you're getting as your

36:02

wide receiver four on a really

36:05

good offense where Patrick Mahomes is kind of

36:07

ping ponged on his TD rate, this

36:09

seems like a year where things can

36:11

blow up. And I want a part of that. Rice

36:13

was awesome, awesome down the stretch. I

36:15

mean, he was way better than Kelsey. He became their

36:18

number one guy. And then the playoffs, Kelsey

36:20

became a little bit more important. But yeah,

36:23

it's just funny the way that drafters are. It's like,

36:25

oh, we don't want this guy. He's getting suspended. And

36:27

then there becomes a certain point. Maybe I do

36:30

this player. Yeah, because we all want an edge.

36:32

I mean, we all want to be the ones

36:34

that win the lottery. It's funny in

36:36

fantasy, you can draft all the right players at

36:38

the right time. But the thing you're the most

36:40

happy about is the

36:43

moment that I signed Kurt

36:45

Warner in the preseason right after he

36:48

played well, or I added Marshawn Lynch

36:50

to my roster before he signed with

36:52

the Raiders. If you have a

36:54

chance of winning that lottery, that feels the best. Yes,

36:57

no, Betts and I always joke with each other. It's

36:59

like, hey, did I win? I don't

37:01

know, but I got closing line value. And so I

37:03

feel really, really smart. And I

37:05

want to tell people about it that, Jeremy's telling

37:08

us right now, we picked up Pukov waivers. Like

37:10

that's- I remember. If we, yeah,

37:12

and we'll tell you every single time. I

37:14

mean, who hasn't been dynasty is the line

37:16

we use in our company. Yeah,

37:19

because it makes you feel like a sharp. Who

37:23

has tank Dell in dynasty? I can't remember that either. You

37:26

probably- Yeah, you probably do. Yeah,

37:28

no, no, we're feeling good about where we're at in

37:30

our dynasty team. All right, so let's talk about some

37:32

more ADP changes. Quarterback is one of those positions that

37:35

the market's fairly efficient. Like, you know, there'll

37:37

be some changes in spots. You've seen Jay

37:40

Daniels rise a bunch because people are like,

37:42

oh, he runs. Why am I not drafting

37:44

him more? But in general, most

37:46

quarterbacks stay where they are. There's

37:49

some later guys that have moved up. I think Will Levis

37:51

is one of those guys that over time are like, well,

37:54

I don't know if this could work, but in best

37:56

ball, who cares if it works? Oh yeah. And

37:58

you talked about Calvin Ridley a lot. a lot recently is

38:00

like, okay, well, I mean, he's,

38:03

Calvary and Will Leves are a perfect late

38:05

combo to take in stacking because you're

38:08

getting the boom weeks and you can live without the other ones.

38:11

I'm kind of really excited to see what happens

38:13

in Tennessee. Andy,

38:16

I know you because what you're saying

38:18

is Calvary is shaping up to be

38:20

a potential my guy. Yeah,

38:22

I mean, he's definitely on the board right now as a

38:25

leader in the clubhouse. The

38:27

ADP could jack it up for me, but I don't

38:29

think it will. I said this on the show the

38:31

other day, if I did a full dedicated Calvin Ridley

38:33

episode, three

38:35

times in a row, I don't think it moves him. I

38:37

think the view on him is

38:39

ironically much more like

38:41

people view Hopkins, like players

38:44

beyond the peak who are

38:47

still pretty good, but not bankable.

38:51

But I think Will Leves is the great,

38:53

wonderful variable. What if Will Leves is Jordan

38:55

Love? Like what if

38:58

Will Leves has, Jordan

39:00

Love mixed with Jamis Winston. What if he comes out and

39:02

they let him throw it around and

39:04

he's much, much better than people expect and maybe they don't

39:06

win a lot of games, but I

39:10

think that's what makes it very exciting and interesting.

39:13

It's not like you're going into the season with

39:15

this game manager, nothing of a quarterback. You

39:18

could completely lose the ball game, the

39:20

bat rather, but he's

39:23

capable of driving the ball down the field. Yeah,

39:26

Will Leves is quarterback 24. Betts

39:28

and I talked to him and I was like, if you

39:30

need a backdoor stack, like you're not counting on Will Leves,

39:32

obviously it's your quarterback one, but quarterback two, quarterback three in

39:35

your best ball builds, that sounds great. Calvin

39:38

Ridley is going as wide as super 35 in best ball,

39:40

so a little bit ahead of where he is a redraft,

39:42

but I'm going to give you some names.

39:44

You tell me in best ball, so shooting from the moon

39:46

here, who would you rather

39:48

have? These are guys going ahead of Calvin Ridley, Terry

39:51

McCloryn. Oh, give me Ridley. Hollywood

39:54

Brown. Ridley.

39:57

Okay, watch your mouth here, Keenan Allen.

40:00

Yeah, I'm taking Ridley. I think I'd

40:02

take Ridley too. I mean, give me somebody

40:04

that I cannot choose Ridley though. Uh,

40:07

uh, Amari Cooper. Yeah, I

40:09

mean, I think that's the one. I think that's the

40:11

one. He's going ahead and Pickens is going ahead. So

40:14

those are players that we have ranked very similarly. One

40:16

more, Jaden Reed. I

40:18

think I would go Calvin Ridley. Yeah,

40:21

I'm looking at our rankings right now. It's like one of

40:23

those players that I want to... I want to make sure

40:25

people have them on their rosters, that they're not scared off

40:27

by the stink of last year. I

40:30

think that's what it is. Like, oh, it's kind of really good. It's

40:33

the expectation, right? Like, oh, Calvin Ridley is supposed to

40:35

be a wide receiver one. And you

40:37

were reading it off. Like he finished pretty much where

40:39

he was drafted last year, except the ride was... Yeah,

40:42

it was not fun. No, it wasn't. But, but

40:45

neither... I mean, watching Trevor Lawrence throw

40:47

the football is a

40:49

different ride as well. Because sometimes it works, sometimes it

40:51

doesn't. Let's

40:54

take a quick break and we'll be right back. I'm

41:04

going to keep talking some ADP changes. And

41:06

the one that... The

41:08

one quarterback that's fallen the most over the last

41:10

month and a half is CJ Stroud. And

41:13

we brought him up. Mike brought him up on the

41:15

bus episode of the main show. He's

41:17

down 16 spots since the

41:19

beginning of May. It's kind of

41:21

been a slow, steady decrease. He's

41:25

QB6 right now. So in best ball, you think

41:27

about his wide receivers that go ahead of him.

41:30

Niko, you're getting digs, you're

41:32

getting dealt. And then people are stacking with

41:34

CJ Stroud right after. So I'm

41:36

actually okay. And it makes

41:38

sense. I'm glad that he dropped because

41:41

I think that's what it's supposed to. Now I haven't been

41:43

drafting him at all in best ball over the

41:45

last two months. So I feel good about

41:47

that. But are you okay in this format where you're

41:49

just living on the highs and lows? If

41:52

you had CJ Stroud as your quarterback one,

41:54

you stacked him with two Texans. But

41:58

then you're, I still feel like you need another. their

42:00

strong quarterback with CJ Stroud. And

42:02

so like Jayne Daniels is my favorite guy to like

42:04

kind of pair with him. So are you fine with

42:07

where he's going now, which is in the sixth round?

42:11

I think the Stroud conversation

42:13

is super interesting. I

42:17

think I'm okay with that. You

42:19

know, I brought up on the

42:22

show, on the main show yesterday that like,

42:25

you know, I was just looking at the top finishers

42:27

at the position. And

42:31

the majority of the young quarterbacks that have

42:33

had success, Hurts, Allen,

42:36

Lamar, Lawrence, Burrow,

42:40

you know, Herbert, and

42:43

about five others. Like the majority that finished near the

42:46

top of the rankings right now, their

42:48

fantasy finish improved from year two

42:50

compared to year one. There

42:54

was like one player, Dak, who was, you know,

42:56

he had that kind of outlandish rookie season. And

42:59

then he dropped from six to 10, which is not wild.

43:02

It's just the, it's the

43:05

pocket passer discussion that

43:10

scares people off. And it's drafting him in at

43:12

his ceiling because he's not a rushing quarterback that

43:14

scares people off. But

43:18

yeah, I mean, I think I'm okay there. And I

43:20

just don't, I don't want to swing the pendulum so

43:22

far. Right. Like what

43:25

are the odds that CJ Stroud takes

43:29

over the league this year? You

43:32

know, there's the possibility that he's

43:34

in MVP discussions. For

43:36

sure. I think one of

43:39

the things that I care about the most

43:41

when we're talking about fantasy football projection analysis

43:43

is you can have a nuanced approach about

43:45

a player in so many different formats. In

43:47

Dynasty, I would kill to have CJ Stroud.

43:49

Like I would love it, you know, in

43:51

a Superflex league or, you know,

43:54

it's like, we're going to be playing CJ Stroud in DFS,

43:57

but this is about an opportunity cost thing. And

43:59

so I think the market, got to the point

44:01

now where it makes more sense in

44:03

best ball. And I wonder in redraft, if he's just going

44:05

to hang out in the fourth round. Cause that's, we've

44:07

said before, like I'm not, I'm not taking a quarterback

44:09

there in a one quarterback league at all. It's

44:12

just not going to happen. The spike weeks is what

44:14

kind of scares me a little bit. Last year, my

44:17

memories of CJ Stroud was that

44:19

Tampa Bay game where he threw five touchdowns and it

44:21

was just bananas. And then I went back and I

44:23

was like, wait, that was his only game

44:26

with three passing touchdowns all last year. I

44:28

mean, he rushed a couple of times. He had

44:30

three rushing touchdowns, but in best ball, I want spike

44:32

weeks. And the fact that it only had two top

44:34

five games does scare me

44:36

off when I think about the rushing floors,

44:38

not there. So I think that's why I've

44:41

had him ranked. I have Kyler in best

44:43

ball ranked ahead of CJ Stroud, just because

44:45

I like the stacking options and

44:48

he's just going to run the ball more, but they're right around

44:50

the same spot. You just don't have to pay the same thing

44:53

with CJ Stroud. So that's my issues. The

44:55

spike weeks actually weren't there last year at all, but

44:57

maybe he levels up. I don't know. Yeah,

45:00

it's very difficult for me to look at

45:02

that the rookie season

45:05

for a quarterback that

45:07

shows a lot of talent, they

45:10

had a handful of bad match-ups. It's just hard

45:12

for me to make that prescriptive. Like that's just

45:14

a mental challenge that I have. It's like, I

45:16

don't like looking at the trends of a rookie

45:18

season for a rookie quarterback because the

45:21

accelerated learning curve, the weapons,

45:24

all of those factors, it's just like, it's all we

45:26

have to go on. And so it's

45:28

going to be the backbone of an argument, but

45:31

I just miss it quite a bit when I

45:33

see a player with tremendous talent. And

45:37

I just believe that, what do we

45:40

see in fantasy? We see special

45:42

MVP-like seasons. We see Kyler with a

45:44

quarterback too. We see Lamar

45:46

going when the MVP after

45:48

years of being lower ranked.

45:51

So it's just a matter of whether you

45:53

believe Stroud's reign begins now, whether you believe

45:55

it will ever begin. I

45:59

don't think we as fam- fantasy players really enjoy the fact

46:01

we only get, you know, one season

46:03

of data. For sure. I mean,

46:05

my home's year two MVP, Lamar year two MVP.

46:07

So he's definitely has that as range of outcomes.

46:10

The one thing that- Yeah, Burrow was on pace

46:12

for it too, right? I mean- Yeah.

46:14

The one thing he didn't do is they didn't give him a

46:16

lot of play action stuff because I found

46:18

this stat out. He had the most turnover worthy plays

46:21

in the league on play action. So

46:23

they just like over time, like, we're not going to put

46:25

your back to the, to the defense. We're

46:27

just gonna let you do what you're really good at. It's like my

46:29

comp for him is he's a point guard. He's like

46:31

a six, three, six, four point guard out

46:33

on the field. So if it's Noah Brown, whoever

46:36

it is out there, like he can, he can find them

46:38

and make them into awesome players. So we

46:40

like CJ Stroud. It's just- Yeah. I

46:42

mean, you might like somebody- At the market's better spot. It's probably

46:44

likely that a lot of people like lower

46:47

options, draft

46:49

wise, a lot more. I

46:52

mean, that's the most likely outcome for most people.

46:54

All right. I want to go through some positions that

46:57

have some, some dirtier names. I

46:59

mean, names that I think at the end of the day, nasty,

47:01

they're nasty because in best ball, people

47:03

are trying, I mean, I mean, these are degenerate people, Andy.

47:06

These are people that are drafting- Yeah, I've heard, I've heard.

47:08

I try to stay away, but yeah, I've heard. They're

47:10

foaming at the mouth just to draft, I don't

47:12

know, backup,

47:15

backup, backup, running back still. That's where Betz

47:17

is, right? He's in a hospital somewhere. This

47:20

is not a vacation. Yeah, that's

47:22

what he put in the company calendar. Yeah. But

47:25

we know that he's just- He's just

47:27

sitting by the beach, best balling. Yeah. And

47:29

calling at work. That's what he's probably going to say. Hey guys, I

47:31

was working while I was off. So

47:34

there's some cheaper running backs that have risen a

47:36

lot. And one of the points we bring

47:38

up a lot with best ball is at this point in the

47:40

off season, we're guessing on the RB two

47:42

and RB three have a lot of rosters. It's like,

47:44

I think it's this guy, I wanted to be

47:47

this guy. And then you look up later, you're like, they cut him.

47:49

Oh yeah. They didn't want him at all. So I

47:52

was reading some stuff from Nick Underhill the other day,

47:54

the Saints beat writer. It's like, he really likes Jamal

47:56

Williams and thinks that he's getting me. I was like,

47:58

Jamal Williams wasn't even my race. But

48:01

I think he has a contract. He's

48:03

going to get some stuff and I haven't been drafting him at all. So

48:06

there's things we're going to get wrong at this point. The

48:08

biggest riser of the last month and a half for

48:10

running backs is Braylon Allen of

48:12

the Jets. And I think part of that is

48:14

due to this Breece Hall. He's coming

48:16

along slowly. We'll figure out what it is. But he's

48:19

up 31 spots right now where

48:21

people are drafting him in round 16-17. Do

48:25

you have any read on that backfield? Is he

48:27

the one that you're like, okay, well, I'm

48:29

going to take a stab and I'm not hoping for Breece to get

48:31

injured, but at least he's big. Yeah,

48:35

I mean, this was a player that I think some

48:37

people projected early in the draft season

48:40

to be a high selection

48:43

with an opportunity early in his

48:45

career to carry the load. So

48:49

it's nice when you check that box of being

48:51

a three down type of backup,

48:53

as opposed to, you know, the team's going to

48:55

shift to this amalgamation of,

48:58

you know, an ensemble

49:00

of different characters. So it makes sense with

49:02

Braylon Allen. The reports have been pretty positive.

49:04

He's capable in the passing

49:07

game, I think, if something happened to Breece. So

49:10

it makes some sense that people would take that

49:12

shot. Yeah. Another one

49:14

is Elijah Mitchell, because we got some news recently

49:16

that Isaac Garendo is going to be maybe doing

49:19

more special teams. That's another player that if you

49:21

were drafting early and you said, hey, oh, well,

49:23

they drafted this guy who was good at the

49:25

combine and you were taking him, you might

49:27

have a dead spot on your roster. And San Francisco

49:29

is the worst one to guess because we've

49:31

been through this white, Ty Davis

49:34

Price, Jordan Mason, Trey

49:36

Sermon, all these guys that like we thought were

49:38

the backup dudes or the dudes, it doesn't matter.

49:41

But I think Elijah Mitchell is shaping up to

49:43

be a really good best ball pick

49:45

because he's the dude if CMC is out. I

49:48

agree. And I don't have any, I don't, I don't really

49:50

have any different narrative there. I

49:52

think it's 100 percent Elijah Mitchell. I

49:55

think the blind shots on the other names.

49:57

I mean, look, Elijah Mitchell gets hurt.

50:00

all the time. That's your bet on

50:02

somebody else. But if Elijah Mitchell's happy, he's

50:04

gonna be the guy. Yeah.

50:07

All right, some fallers, I just wanna quickly mention it running

50:09

back and then we'll hit some wide receivers before we're done.

50:12

Nick Chubb right now, he's

50:14

been in a free fall since May and

50:16

it makes sense. The news has been not overly

50:20

negative, just neutral. No direction. Yeah,

50:23

and I think when that happens in best ball, people

50:25

go, well, I can't be bullish on this player. I'll

50:27

let somebody else guess and take him.

50:29

So he's at the point now where he's

50:31

RB 43. And

50:34

I get the upside. I love Nick Chubb, loved him

50:36

since his days at Georgia. But

50:38

I mean, we haven't been clicking the button and Betz is

50:40

one of those guys. I just trust whatever Betz says

50:43

for the most part of like, hey, the recovery is

50:45

gonna be longer than what you think. So

50:47

could he be a player at the end of the year that

50:49

balls out and we were like, oh man, I wish I'd had

50:52

him. I think in redraft, you're just gonna let

50:54

somebody else take him and they're gonna put

50:56

them on IR and they're just gonna wait. In best ball,

50:58

I'm pretty much hands off. Yeah,

51:00

it makes sense. I mean, right now we don't have

51:02

any direction from the team. No timeline. Like

51:05

you said, the news hasn't been like overtly negative, but it's

51:08

stuff like, hey, he's running on the track down at the

51:11

gym and is he full speed? Is

51:13

he not? Did you

51:15

burn a pick? Did he set it on fire? Possible.

51:20

It's so hard because he's one of those guys

51:22

that is a superhuman. If you've ever seen him

51:24

like in shorts, he looks like a

51:26

superhuman and then you put pads on soap. His injury was

51:29

one of the saddest ones that I can remember in recent

51:31

years. I won't say that I traded

51:33

for him in dynasty a week before, but I did.

51:36

Oh my gosh. I know. I

51:38

was like, I just need a running back. Sounds like you need a week off by

51:41

the beach. I do need that. Josh

51:44

Jacobs has dropped over around in the

51:46

last month. Do you have any read?

51:48

I know Jason's been talking up Marshawn Lloyd. I

51:51

would assume that's the reason why, right, Lloyd? That's

51:54

it. It's the news blurbs from

51:56

Lloyd is causing Jacobs to kind of go down

51:58

in people's minds from where... where he used to

52:00

go, which was about top 40. So

52:02

I still like Josh Jacobs. I still think he can

52:04

be fine, but in best ball

52:06

you're hoping for a home run and there's an outcome

52:09

where Josh Jacobs is just meh.

52:11

And you took a running back in the fourth,

52:13

fifth round. It's like, hey, this guy didn't really

52:15

help me. RB 15, if he finishes RB 15,

52:19

that's fine in redraft. But in best ball, that

52:21

would kill your roster because you're missing up a

52:23

ton of upside. So, are you fine at RB

52:25

12? Fine

52:28

is the best way to put it.

52:30

I'm a little uncomfortable. I did

52:32

compare the situation to ETN and

52:35

Bigsby and it

52:38

happened to be like on the number.

52:40

Like pick 88 was Bigsby, pick 88

52:42

was March Von Lloyd, incumbent

52:45

Jacobs and ETN. And it went wrong for

52:47

those that bet against ETN last year. A

52:50

rookie has a lot to prove and I'll repeat this

52:52

a million times. It's not

52:55

just, is he

52:57

a good player? It's that,

52:59

is he well rounded enough to earn

53:01

any semblance of trust from the coaching

53:03

staff? It takes two fumbles. It takes

53:06

a misread on a pass protection. It

53:08

takes a dropped pass. And

53:14

you could be kind

53:16

of ostracized for six, seven weeks at a time

53:18

before you get another shot. Like these

53:20

guys don't mess around. A lot of these coaches, they just

53:22

don't mess around. Why do it? They

53:25

do, they brought back AJ Dillon. Like

53:27

AJ Dillon, we don't like

53:29

to watch him play football, but that

53:31

doesn't matter. Because if their head coach, if

53:34

Michael Ford, Matt LaFoure wants to

53:36

go put him out there

53:40

because he trusts him in pass protection, that's what he's

53:42

gonna do. It's not gonna matter how fast March on

53:44

Lloyd is. Yeah, I

53:47

think Lloyd has been a player we've talked

53:49

about a ton as if you're going

53:51

zero RB, we want them on rosters,

53:54

but it's easy to swing the pendulum too far. I think

53:56

at the end of the day, that's what I did last

53:58

year with Bigsby, to be honest. I was like, I like.

54:00

Bigsby, Jason liked Bigsby. Maybe there's

54:02

gonna be more opportunity here. And I think I just

54:04

whiffed on ETN. ETN was what, RB3? I

54:07

mean, he was really, really good for

54:09

a long time. And the first half of the year, he

54:12

was winning you a lot of weeks. All

54:14

right, let's follow up and just finish with some wide

54:16

receivers. And I'm gonna bring up some guys that are

54:19

not pretty by any means. But

54:23

in best ball, people are just trying to

54:26

stockpile, right? They were just like, I need

54:28

eight wide receivers. And so guys like Joshua

54:30

Palmer, the least sexy name,

54:32

you could be, but is he gonna

54:34

be like, we talked earlier

54:36

about McConkey, we talked about Quentin Johnston. Is

54:39

Palmer gonna be an every down player? Yes.

54:42

That sounds so sad because I don't think

54:45

he's like a great NFL player, but

54:47

I also think he kind of fits with this,

54:49

like he's DeMarcus Robinson. He's

54:51

somebody that's gonna get on the field,

54:53

he's gonna have a couple of spike weeks, and he's

54:56

going at a 107 overall. So,

54:59

I mean, it makes sense, but

55:01

like is there a chance that he outscores McConkey?

55:04

Yes, absolutely. Yeah,

55:07

I mean, I think all four wide receivers in

55:09

Los Angeles could finish as the top fantasy producer.

55:11

That's the problem. Chark, Quentin,

55:13

McConkey, Palmer. All

55:15

four of them are in, not

55:18

even odds, but they all have the potential to

55:20

actually be the highest fantasy score. And

55:22

that's why they're being drafted where they're drafted. And

55:26

to me, that's a buying opportunity and it's also landmines.

55:28

Because I wanna guess, I wanna guess, right? I

55:30

wanna be the smart person in the room that

55:33

gets Quentin Johnston ahead of everybody else

55:35

who slept on him, but I

55:37

also know there's risk. If I had to put it

55:39

in, maybe it helps to put it in snap order,

55:42

total snaps. I think it

55:44

goes Palmer, Johnston, McConkey, Chark.

55:48

Yeah, Chark, Chark, you've doubled him. How

55:51

would you put that in

55:53

snaps? I have no idea how

55:55

to adjust McConkey in my mind from watching

55:58

him at Georgia and saying like, oh, this is... This is

56:00

how he was effective on a per route. And

56:02

this is how he will be used in this

56:04

offense. I

56:06

mean, they, it was

56:08

a high pick. They also gave him, I don't know

56:10

if you saw the blurb, it was like some of

56:12

the most money ever for his draft slot. Yeah, I

56:15

did, I did. He took a while to sign. Yeah.

56:20

Gotta get that money. I

56:24

don't have the button for that. You

56:26

don't have, oh, see, does that pipe through? I don't know if

56:29

it does. If

56:31

not, there are cricket sounds as. Have you ever done

56:33

that to yourself on a show? Just

56:35

today, yeah. Okay, well, we won't tell

56:37

anyone else. A couple more names

56:39

here. We talked about Troy Franklin. Mike

56:41

Williams has dropped almost a full round. And

56:44

I personally, we were writing this in our blurbs in the best

56:46

ball primer. I'm just terrified of

56:48

the Jets in general. Like I hate investing

56:51

in a team where

56:53

there's more variables than people think. And I think

56:55

they're really thin. Like I think it's a really

56:57

thin roster on offense

56:59

that's hanging on a 41-year-old's arm.

57:02

Psych, did you ever go to the beach

57:04

as a kid? And sometimes in California, there

57:06

would be these sandcastle

57:08

builders, like these guys that would come along

57:10

and maybe they do it for tips, but

57:12

they build these beautiful sandcastles. Pacific

57:15

Ocean, you say. Pacific Ocean, yeah. And

57:19

they're still sandcastles, man. They look

57:21

really pretty, but they're just waiting

57:23

for a wave. They're waiting

57:25

for the tide. They're not standing

57:27

forever. Like we all know that the Jets, like

57:31

this isn't a 10-year thing, this isn't a five-year

57:33

thing. So yeah, I

57:35

mean, we're all terrified because we

57:37

know that like you could just, the wind blows

57:39

the wrong direction and all the cards come crumbling

57:41

down. I

57:43

want you to look at the Jets projections real quick

57:46

because Mike Williams has always been a better and best

57:48

ball player, right? Like we had an

57:50

article a couple of years ago where he was the

57:52

cover boy. If you want volatility, Mike

57:54

Williams is the guy. And right

57:56

now he's going around pick 115. I

58:01

have such a hard time clicking the

58:03

button for him because I'm not stacking Aaron Rodgers. So

58:06

I'm not really interested in getting part of that team. And

58:09

I know Mike Williams at this point, he's

58:11

there for a couple and he could be injured and out

58:14

because he jumps and flops on the

58:16

field. I love my playing. He's not even playing right

58:18

now, right? I need to look it up. I'm pretty

58:20

sure that that's why, that's part of why his ADP

58:22

is going down is that you're getting nothing because I

58:24

don't think he's playing football right now. I

58:27

think he is like maybe jogging on the

58:29

sideline or working to the side. I don't know if he's

58:31

doing much. Mike Williams,

58:34

I feel like he's been a favorite of yours for

58:36

a while of just like, I like this player as

58:38

he's fun in the NFL, but

58:41

there's just so much. Those days have come and

58:43

gone for me, brother. Oh,

58:45

big Mike. 64 for 805, that's where I've got him. I

58:50

do see him in his Jets uniform, but he's

58:52

just taking pictures. That's, he can do that. Yeah.

58:57

I mean, Salah has talked him up a little bit, a

58:59

little bit of like, once he gets up to speed, once he's

59:01

a part of the offense, once we get him in.

59:04

Once he's healthy. Yeah.

59:07

I just, I've been passing him by and I

59:09

think it's been really sad because in best ball has usually been

59:11

a guy that we want to target.

59:15

A couple of tight ends. And there's one specifically

59:17

that you opened my eyes to and

59:19

it's Noah Fant. I've been, I've

59:23

been on the fence of just saying like, okay,

59:25

if you get a tight end two later on, here's

59:28

these other guys. We've named a bunch of other dudes,

59:30

K. Daughton or, Isaiah

59:33

likely a player that we like

59:35

a lot, Hunter Henry. And then

59:38

Noah Fant sitting there and he's risen

59:40

about two rounds in the

59:42

last month. So Noah Fant's one of those players that

59:45

it's easy to just kind of think like, oh, I

59:47

know what he is. He wasn't that involved, but

59:49

they don't have any other tight ends there right now.

59:52

Like they basically said, we don't care. They drafted A.J.

59:54

Barnard, but he was a blocking tight end. So

59:56

Noah Fant, I think, I

59:59

think is setting up to. to be one of the

1:00:01

sneakier names and their offensive coordinators talked about him. We've

1:00:04

kind of talked him up a little bit. So I

1:00:06

don't know, like has your perspective on him being like,

1:00:08

I think he could be sneaky. Yeah,

1:00:12

I think it's all the things that you laid

1:00:14

out is why he at least has risen in,

1:00:16

you know, our

1:00:18

attention. It's hard when

1:00:20

a player caught 32 passes last year

1:00:22

to, you know, he's had some years

1:00:25

where, you know, he caught 68 passes in 2021. He

1:00:28

was tied in 12, two years in a row. And

1:00:31

then we knew the death sentence of being traded over

1:00:34

to Seattle. Still had an

1:00:36

okay season in

1:00:38

terms of, you know, no, he

1:00:40

didn't. No, he didn't. I mean, Denver was where it

1:00:43

was good. Last

1:00:45

year, the only thing you can hang your hat on is

1:00:48

like a 12.9 yards per catch. And

1:00:51

the fact that he had, he can make, you know, he's going to

1:00:53

make some big plays here and there, but

1:00:56

his snap percentage was the lowest of his career last

1:00:58

year. That's where you're hoping he's back up in the

1:01:00

seventies. He's just

1:01:02

that really, what

1:01:04

if they built the offense with

1:01:07

him as an integral piece question? Yeah,

1:01:09

I was looking up some quotes the other day because like you

1:01:12

were talking about him in our slack and I was like, I

1:01:14

haven't thought about Noah Fant at all in

1:01:17

these formats. And some

1:01:19

of like their team was looking at like what

1:01:21

he's done on a per

1:01:25

catch basis, which like, yes, the volume's been

1:01:27

low. He's still athletic, right? He's

1:01:29

what, 25, 26? He's

1:01:31

still fairly young. So I think

1:01:33

they can use him. And

1:01:36

this is an offense that we're kind of buying

1:01:38

in. It's a new offense, right? It's three wide

1:01:40

receivers. It's Ryan Grubb, what he brought over from Washington.

1:01:42

So I think that could be good. One

1:01:45

more name I want to bring up, and this is

1:01:47

my sneaky name. It's

1:01:49

Jelani Woods of the Colts

1:01:51

because he is one of the highest risers over

1:01:53

the last month. He's up almost a

1:01:55

full round where people are now taking him at the end

1:01:58

of the draft, tied in for the Colts. in

1:02:00

case you deleted that from your brain. I

1:02:03

think it's just people wanted to stack with Richardson. At the

1:02:05

end of the day, it's like, I need somebody, I need

1:02:07

somebody late, he's athletic. Maybe Richardson takes

1:02:09

the leap. Any

1:02:11

thoughts on Woods? I mean,

1:02:13

there's like 30 tight ends there anyways. Yeah, I

1:02:16

mean, Mallory, you've

1:02:18

got Mowally Cox still there, you've got Kylan

1:02:20

Granson, but I'm

1:02:22

with you. No, I think Jelani Woods, if you don't

1:02:24

know the history there, very

1:02:27

talented, flashed, and then dealt with

1:02:29

massive injuries. I believe he

1:02:31

missed all of last year. Yeah,

1:02:34

he was hurt for, I can look it up. He either

1:02:36

missed all of last year, or got hurt like right

1:02:38

out of the jump. I think he was hurt the year before.

1:02:42

The coach speak has been positive. Or

1:02:45

am I wrong? He was out all

1:02:47

last year. He was out all of last year.

1:02:49

And then the year before he actually had kind

1:02:53

of a handful, he had an eight for 98 game, which

1:02:56

is wild to be able to do that.

1:02:59

He's humongous. 6'7",

1:03:01

250, definitely seemed like the

1:03:04

most athletic of their giants. Their

1:03:08

Monstars? Of their Monstars. So yeah, I

1:03:10

don't mind on

1:03:13

a team where you have a

1:03:15

little bit of ambiguity outside of Pitman, target

1:03:18

wise, to at least keep him on your radar.

1:03:22

That's gonna do it for this show. If

1:03:24

you wanna get all of those rankings, you can get

1:03:26

them in the Ultimate Draft Kit. Andy, lots of projections,

1:03:29

lots of stuff that you've been in the lab working

1:03:31

on. I mean, it's a labor of love from going

1:03:34

from the draft to this point,

1:03:37

and you're still tweaking. You're still working on stuff. Yeah,

1:03:39

we got the Draft Analyzer coming out here on July

1:03:41

1st too, which lets people import teams and get a

1:03:43

grade. And so we're gonna keep making updates on that.

1:03:45

I know you were working on that with our team

1:03:48

the other day as well. So we're

1:03:50

gonna continue to improve. Just got a bunch

1:03:52

of feedback from the Foot Clan, and

1:03:54

we're just gonna keep pumping up the Ultimate Draft Kit,

1:03:56

making it better every week. Yep,

1:03:58

that's gonna do it for us next week. Betts

1:04:00

will be back. We'll be talking best ball champions

1:04:03

and league winners. We'll see you

1:04:05

next week. Thank

1:04:10

you for listening to another edition

1:04:12

of the Fantasy Footballers DFS and

1:04:15

betting podcast. Don't forget to visit

1:04:17

us on the web at the

1:04:19

fantasy footballers.com