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Hello, this call is being translated. Welcome.

1:15

To the Fantasy Footballers D, S

1:17

and Betty podcast with your homes.

1:20

Kyle Morgan only and Matthew

1:22

mans. Welcome

1:29

and we're. Back Friday, May Twenty

1:31

four summers here are the fans but Mahler's

1:33

Dfs embedding podcast I'm Heroes com Bargnani and

1:35

I enjoyed as always by Matthew is swim

1:38

trunks are on bets it sign maybe it

1:40

was we are here dude summer like he

1:42

said I mean I guess technically hasn't started

1:45

but like I am and for summer mode

1:47

like you know my kids are you still

1:49

pretty young bittern two and a few weeks

1:51

which is in be really fun but we

1:54

have a splash pad and or park and

1:56

many the splash pad is lit okay it's

1:58

it's where it's our. So you know

2:00

I've got the trunks on, the dad trunks. We

2:02

got a beach trip coming up here in about

2:05

a month. So I'm ready for summer. Just mowed

2:07

the grass yesterday, Kyle. Things

2:09

are looking up. I've realized

2:11

that I just alienated all of our

2:13

listeners in the Southern Hemisphere because

2:16

they're looking at this and they're going, what are

2:18

you talking about? A foot of snow outside. It

2:21

blows my mind that that is how

2:23

it works because you're ingrained, same calendar,

2:25

same Gregorian calendar we're working with. And

2:29

yeah, it's May here and it's the summer

2:31

of Bestball. So if you're one of those

2:34

listeners, Southern Hemisphere shout out. It's

2:36

the winter of Bestball. Yeah. For

2:38

those folks. It is a different time

2:40

of when you are drafting your teams.

2:43

We are glad that you're with us on this episode. We're going

2:45

to be talking about the edges that

2:47

you need. Finding edges in Bestball. So Betts and

2:49

I came up with a list of our top

2:51

five best things to target

2:53

and think about. It's more of a

2:56

strategy session, but also we'll be going

2:58

through ADP and saying, hey, if

3:00

you've taken this many players before this

3:02

round, you might be

3:04

screwed. And so we'll talk about that. Talk about some

3:07

player exposures. Guys

3:09

we like, guys we don't like. All of those, we'll

3:11

get into it. The Bestball primer

3:13

is just a week away. I realized next week

3:15

when we were recording our episode, Betts, we'll

3:18

basically be telling people that, hey, jump in there. It's

3:21

going to be there. And we'll even

3:23

give you a preview of what that looks like

3:25

on this podcast. But a lot of time, a

3:27

lot of effort in updating our rankings. So you

3:29

get up to date ADP for underdog and a

3:32

team by team approach, which I think is different

3:35

than a lot of content out there for Bestball.

3:37

It's usually like, here's the players, here's the sleepers.

3:40

We're giving you a team by team approach so you

3:42

can think about stacking. Yeah, for sure.

3:45

And I'm in the middle of going through every

3:47

team as you are. And when I do it,

3:49

it's such a good exercise every year because rather

3:52

than like getting so in the weeds of like,

3:54

this player's stats, not player's efficiency and all that,

3:56

like just take a step back and looking at

3:59

the team from a... top down perspective, the

4:02

coach, the play caller, how aggressive we think there'd

4:04

be, their pace, what's gonna change, and kind of

4:06

trying to forecast that, I think can give you

4:08

an edge. So I

4:10

have adjusted the ranks for myself since doing some

4:12

of this work. I will continue to do that.

4:14

So over the next few days, keep monitoring. You

4:17

might notice a few tweaks that I came across

4:19

some stuff in the primer, which you'll be able

4:21

to read very soon, man. I

4:23

love this time of year. June 1st, man, it

4:25

is Christmas morning. A

4:28

little rankings tweak. I like

4:30

that, Betts. I like that you are just in, you're

4:33

not in off-season modes, you're in in-season mode for

4:36

people that wanna draft all the time because of

4:38

their degenerates. One of

4:40

us. I get it. Yeah, one of

4:42

us. You're a part of the group.

4:44

So ultimatedraftkit.com, if you want in, you

4:46

want the best ball primer, all of this will be coming

4:49

to your app. And I'll just also give

4:51

another little tease for the

4:53

people that the entire experience for the

4:55

finished footballers is about to change in

4:57

how we get to interact with people, how you

4:59

get access to all of our tools. It's

5:02

all gonna be in one place. Andy jumped

5:04

the gun as the footballers do and

5:06

sent out an email, I believe it was last

5:09

week saying, hey, we're hitting our 10-year

5:11

anniversary and we've decided that

5:13

we wanted to make sure everybody has

5:15

everything in one place. So ultimatedraftkit.com and

5:18

kind of stay tuned because over the summer,

5:20

we're gonna be launching some other stuff, some

5:22

exclusive stuff. Betts and I are also writing

5:24

some exclusive articles that are in the ultimate

5:26

draft kit plus. I

5:28

have a quick question for you. And I'm

5:31

calling this little quick question Betts, the

5:33

beat report bounce. I realized I could have come

5:36

up with a better name, but

5:38

the beat report bounce is simply looking

5:40

at recent news and

5:43

asking yourself, does this matter for best ball at all? You

5:46

talked about tweaking the ranks. You

5:48

talked about things changing and shifting and looking at

5:50

these teams. It's very easy

5:52

to see things shift in ADP when

5:55

a tweet comes out. And I wanna give a

5:57

special shout out to a couple of different... if

6:00

you're not following them on X. It's

6:02

CoachSpeak Index, which

6:04

does a really good job of kind of tracking over

6:06

time. What does this coach said and are

6:09

they just a liar? Hint, hint, a lot of them are

6:11

liars. And then 32 Beat

6:13

Riders does a great job of

6:15

aggregating all the information, all the intel from

6:18

every single team's Beat Rider and putting it for you.

6:21

I was on their podcast earlier this week,

6:23

getting to talk through some super flex stuff,

6:25

but I really respect what they do. They're

6:28

really great guys who get to put together,

6:30

you know, I'm not gonna follow and know

6:33

every single thing that goes on at Seahawks camp. I

6:35

don't know all of the Beat Riders, but

6:37

they have them all for you there. So I really respect

6:40

those two accounts. I'm gonna read you

6:42

something, Betts, and you tell me if it's

6:45

crazy or it doesn't

6:47

matter, but these are specifically from

6:49

Beat Reporters, okay? These

6:52

words were about Kyron Williams, who

6:56

detailed his injury history, buddy. It's

6:59

not good, right? Not great, Bob. It's

7:02

not great. Yeah, so go ahead and read the

7:04

quote and then I'll jump in on it. Okay, so Sean

7:06

McVeigh was talking, he said, oh, Kyron's good. And

7:08

I'm kind of using Sean McVeigh's voice because I've heard it so

7:10

much over here. Yeah, can you please give a full McVeigh,

7:14

you know? Kyron's good. He had a little foot

7:16

issue, but we're gonna be smart with him. He's

7:18

really, he's gonna be ready to go for training

7:20

camp. That wasn't bad, man. That

7:23

was pretty good. Georgia boy, by the way. Of

7:25

course. Yeah, so Sean

7:27

McVeigh has been very truthful with injury

7:29

recovery for the most part. And I

7:32

do believe Kyron Williams would be back for training camp. So

7:34

really, I'm not adjusting this news a

7:36

ton based off of I'm worried he's

7:38

gonna miss three weeks of camp and will he be ready for

7:40

week one? I'm not really worried about that. So I'm not really

7:42

adjusting Kyron in my ranks a ton. But

7:44

I will say this most recent injury

7:46

on top of what he's had in the past, combined

7:49

with last year's workload and the draft

7:51

pick of Blake Corum, does

7:53

sort of just give you some puzzle pieces of like,

7:55

maybe this guy doesn't average 21.7 touches per

7:58

game this year. Maybe he's not out there. on

8:00

putt returns. Sean McVay is sicko. Maybe he's

8:02

not, you know, playing 90% of the snaps.

8:05

Like clearly we should expect some regression there. Doesn't mean

8:07

he's a bad pick. Like he can still be so

8:09

efficient if the Rams are great, all those things. But

8:11

just a touch on the injury history. I mean, he

8:14

had a Jones fracture his rookie year in June from

8:16

OTAs in 2022. Then has

8:18

the high ankle sprain in week one, basically misses,

8:21

you know, three fourths of the year. Then

8:23

this pasture, another high ankle sprain, obviously in the middle of

8:25

the season, lands on IR. Comes back,

8:27

he's great. But now again, another foot injury.

8:29

And we don't know what specifically this injury

8:31

is, which is kind of tough because

8:34

there's not a lot of great reporting around OTAs and there's no

8:36

video of the injury and all that sort of stuff. So we

8:39

have now two foot injuries and two high ankle sprains since

8:41

Kyron Williams has played in the NFL, which is not that

8:43

long. And so it does give

8:45

you, I think, some concern of, like I said,

8:47

does Kyron see 20 plus

8:49

touches per game this year? I would take

8:51

the under, just historically, that's not usually what happens.

8:54

And the drafting of Blake Corum says we should probably expect that

8:56

to come down a little bit. Now again, I said he could

8:58

be efficient, it could be fine. But I

9:00

have found myself like in draft the last three or

9:02

four days being like, I like

9:05

Kyron. I think the community will react

9:07

to this negatively. Maybe I can just wait on Kyron

9:09

and get a better price in the next week or

9:11

two. It's hard when

9:13

I look at the Rams, they feel like such a

9:15

fragile team. That when

9:18

they're great, they were great. Like when Stafford was in and

9:20

Kyron was in last year, the offense

9:22

rolled and you kind of saw that down the stretch.

9:25

But when somebody goes out, Cupp was dealing with

9:27

injuries, it's tough.

9:29

I look at the ADPs, Puka, Kyron and Cupp, all

9:32

go in the first three rounds. And then

9:34

there's this massive gap where until

9:36

round 11, you don't

9:38

see another Ram go off the board. Does

9:41

that feel like a little off for a

9:43

team that feels like this

9:45

powerhouse, like there is

9:47

some risk in this team. Like Puka, you're

9:49

giving a really high pick, I think it'll

9:51

be fine. But Kyron's injury issues,

9:54

Cupp's certainly declined in a lot

9:56

of efficiency metrics. Stafford's always

9:58

dealing with injury issues. I

10:01

worry a little bit about this team and if it's able

10:03

to hold you know and be the

10:05

same efficient group Yeah, I think

10:07

that's fair. I mean the tricky thing

10:09

is like you said, I mean pook is

10:11

gonna be great I've taken him a ton in round one. I

10:13

think he is the guy you want over Cooper cup and the

10:15

market agrees But with Cooper cup,

10:17

you know, this is a guy like you

10:19

said that we've kind of seen the decline

10:22

a little bit obviously, we had the hamstring

10:24

plague injury last year kind of affects the

10:26

entire season, but We

10:28

see it all the time with these guys, right? It's like once

10:30

they kind of show you the fall-off like usually

10:33

at this age of the career They don't bounce back to being

10:35

elite and when I say elite I mean worthy of like a

10:38

top 36 pick a top, you

10:40

know Overall 24 wide receiver like it just

10:42

doesn't happen super often So I

10:44

do think like there is fragility to both,

10:46

you know Kyron and Cooper cup and if

10:49

those guys go down or not them themselves

10:51

that were last year There's a

10:53

good chance Matthew Stanford is not the pick that you want

10:55

right? But like you dropped it if you're

10:57

right and I think that if you are investing in puka

10:59

and or Cooper cup Then you are expecting this

11:01

team to be efficient stay healthy and all those things but with

11:04

that volatility I think there's value somewhere later

11:06

in the draft. I Don't

11:09

know who it is. I think it's DeMarcus Robinson,

11:11

maybe But this is

11:13

a guy that play with back to my homes for years Did

11:16

nothing and then all of a sudden last year turned it

11:18

on so I'm not sure honestly

11:20

And then you have the Tyler Higbee injury to

11:22

it, right where I'm not drafting him at all

11:24

this year And so I think it's Colby Parkinson

11:26

is the guy that you want quietly got a

11:28

lot of guaranteed money, which yes is shocking And

11:31

I think he's probably the Rams tight end you

11:33

want if you're looking for, you know,

11:35

hey, I got puka. I missed on cup I missed

11:38

on Corum. I did take Stafford. I need a second

11:40

guy Colby Parkinson's usually there around

11:42

18. Yeah Corum is a fine

11:45

Zero-rb target if you want to use in there. I

11:48

will probably be underweight on Kyron I just it's

11:50

tough for me to pay the price And

11:53

look at efficiency and what he did via touchdowns

11:55

to repeat that. All right next report

11:57

here Raiders OC Luke

12:00

Getsey, who I know is one of your favorite people on the

12:02

planet, stated the other day that

12:04

the QB1 job will

12:06

come down to which quarterback takes

12:08

better care of the ball. What

12:11

can you tell me about these two quarterbacks? Because I feel like

12:14

we've been running into the same exact problem, that they're

12:16

the same dude. Yeah,

12:18

for the most part, they are. And what's funny is

12:20

last year, Gardner-Minchy's turnover rate

12:23

was 3.0%, but

12:25

Aiden O'Connell smashed in that department

12:28

2.9%. So

12:30

again, they are the same player. So, you know,

12:33

I think the terminology here of like, we

12:36

gotta take care of the ball, just, it's

12:38

what they wanna do, right? Like they're limiting past

12:40

attempts. I think they genuinely want to feed Zemir

12:42

White 20 carries if they can every game, and

12:45

just be conservative. And that's what we saw with Antonio

12:47

Pierce last year. That's what Luke Getsey's offense was the

12:49

last couple of years in Chicago. So

12:52

it doesn't really change anything for me. I'm not

12:54

really drafting either quarterback right now. And

12:56

I've shied away a bunch from De'Monte Adams in

12:58

round two, where there's a premium pick

13:01

associated with that, that I just wanna take other

13:03

guys in round two that I prefer at that

13:06

ADP. So it doesn't change a lot for me, but you

13:09

know me and Luke, man, we're

13:11

in a little bit of a tiff right now, okay? I need your offense

13:13

to come into the year 2024. Yeah,

13:15

I kinda went back and forth. Do I care

13:17

who the starting quarterback is for best ball or

13:19

for our Raiders under that we talked about last

13:22

week? I don't think I care. Like

13:24

I don't think it matters. There are some shares of

13:26

Jacoby Myers, where I'm totally fine with him.

13:28

If you need to get him as your wide receiver four, five,

13:31

whatever, but I will be underweight

13:33

this entire team. I did, I need to

13:35

say this, I need to confess to the people.

13:38

I auto drafted Brock Bowers

13:41

the other day. Uh-oh. Was

13:45

it ahead of ADP, behind ADP? Behind

13:47

ADP. Oh, you got a value. Yeah,

13:50

I got a value. Dude, that's positive EV, man.

13:52

You like it. That's how I'm telling myself. No,

13:54

I was at that kid's camp for the weekend

13:56

in the mountains and I looked up, was like,

13:58

ah, crap. Brock Bowers I said

14:00

I was going to take him anywhere. But. I'll

14:03

take the back next. The best I'll pick

14:05

story that we have must couple years is

14:07

when. You touch Kevin Durant a

14:09

by mistake see eg. like he had Lamar

14:12

and doesn't even a like for those that

14:14

are just joining us are like whatever we

14:16

like the why does the reform Baltimore Sun

14:18

the like two years ago and Kyle he

14:20

had ensued up. Auto Drafted like for

14:22

five rounds early by mistake. Me:

14:25

Literally two weeks later. same exact mistake.

14:27

Alex last internet connection in in like

14:29

got it back and I was in

14:31

a fast draft. So when that happens

14:33

or kind of Alec has been suggested

14:35

ever do it as the Ground Nine

14:37

that he did not do very well.

14:39

I'm a sucker here. Hey

14:43

Devin have been a have have had a moment

14:45

moment in the sun or it to more

14:47

here Head Coach Todd Bowles. On. The

14:49

teams plans to play Chris gotten more the

14:51

slot. He's an inside guy by nature. He

14:53

can play outside, but he can make a

14:55

living doing a bunch of things for us.

14:57

We plan to let him do a lot

14:59

of things that he does best. Imagine that

15:02

bats someone saying this, players good. At

15:04

what he does best. So Chris Godwin in

15:06

the slot is kind of significant. With.

15:09

Liam Cohen their new of see. My.

15:11

Question for you. He's. Being

15:13

drafted at wide receiver Forty one.

15:16

Feels. Kind of close to his for like

15:18

and there's is there any room for upset.

15:20

Have you been taken? Goblin are all obviously

15:22

other wide receivers are pushed up but seventy

15:24

second Overall feels like a fair price to

15:27

pay. Yeah actually haven't taken quite

15:29

a bit. A goblin as likes you know your

15:31

wide receiver three if you grab a couple sides

15:33

early or for if you're blowing kind of of

15:35

the choose your Rv team or whatever. but you

15:38

know this is a guy that of last three

15:40

seasons as been the wide receiver thirty one, twenty

15:42

and seventeen. so. He really does

15:44

our performance atp often and I think there's a

15:46

good chance he could. Outperform it

15:49

by a wide margin out on these and be a top

15:51

ten guy. thought if the guy but like. I

15:53

think top. Thirty. one with a

15:56

blessing top twenty fourth on the table it just

15:58

the touchdown lock comes back is why This is

16:00

a guy that's seen 142 and 130 targets over

16:03

the last two years. He's seen, and has caught

16:05

just five touchdown passes. Like that amount of volume

16:08

should bounce back to more touchdowns if he gets

16:10

six, seven, eight, and a thousand yards.

16:12

Like this ADP will pay off. So yeah, I've taken

16:14

a lot of Chris Goblin. I actually kind of buy

16:16

this. I do think he is a better fit

16:18

in the slot. The only issue for me in question mark is like,

16:21

they just took Jelen McMillan in the third round. And

16:24

at Washington, he pretty much only played

16:26

the slot with Polk and Romadunzi on

16:28

the outside. So something's got to

16:30

give here, but I do think that this is a good fit

16:32

for him if this actually is true. Yeah,

16:35

I think the sentiment is, oh,

16:37

he's aging. He's done. But like,

16:39

I think Chris Godwin still is at a point in

16:41

his career where he can be a

16:43

difference maker at this ADP. I haven't been taking a

16:45

lot of Buccaneers, to be honest. I have

16:47

my own Rashad White, Worries. I've shared

16:49

those with Betts, a bunch

16:51

of just the efficiency stuff. Baker

16:54

and Evans are a lot more expensive than they were

16:56

last year, but I like Godwin at his price. And

16:59

I like K.Dot and at his price. Shocker.

17:02

Yeah. He's one of the dudes. All

17:04

right, one more piece of information here. This

17:07

is from our guy, George Pickens,

17:10

who I have talked about a lot already,

17:12

this off season, but he said, and I quote, I'll

17:14

pull all-nighters just thinking

17:17

about football. So my question for you, Betts,

17:20

does that mean that George Pickens is a

17:22

confirmed dog? Or George,

17:24

what are you doing? Get some sleep, dude.

17:27

Yeah, this is not optimal. He's

17:29

gonna be tired. Bad

17:32

performance, increased risk of injury moving forward. You gotta

17:35

take him off your board. This

17:37

was hilarious when you sent this to me, by the way. I

17:40

don't know what he's doing, but I will say, since you talked

17:42

about George Pickens a couple of weeks ago, his

17:44

ADP is through the roof. And

17:46

I don't know that I love the new price.

17:50

Mm. Moving

17:53

the line. Ah, man. I

17:57

don't like moving it either. I don't

17:59

like talking about certain players. I see it all the time on

18:01

X when people are like, shh, don't

18:03

talk about this player anymore. It's like, whoa, we're

18:05

gonna talk about every single player from every single team

18:08

and things are gonna move. My

18:11

question was, does he got

18:13

that dog or is it, like Randy Jackson, that's

18:15

a no for me dog at this ADP? 46th

18:18

overall, I know it's underdog,

18:20

I know it's wide receiver skewed and all

18:22

that stuff, but 46th overall for Arthur Smith's

18:25

wide receiver one with Russell

18:28

Wilson and or Justin Fields, like, I

18:31

don't know, man, it seems, like,

18:35

how many targets could he see, like best case scenario,

18:37

where was he, Kat? See,

18:41

the number that came to mind for me was like 120. I

18:45

think the ceiling is a little higher

18:48

for someone who could be

18:50

an alpha, like could be an absolute

18:52

alpha talent wise on

18:54

this team. I get

18:56

the passing pie sucks, but

18:59

I think it's there. Now, what is his

19:01

yardage ceiling to you? If

19:06

he does take a year three leap and

19:08

he gets this 130 targets you talk about, I

19:12

don't know, 1200 yards, 1300 yards? Okay,

19:14

I was thinking 1400. So

19:17

I think it's a slobber thing. You love George

19:19

Pickens. Oh my gosh. I told

19:21

you, do you remember what I said who my

19:23

guys are? I can say this on the podcast,

19:26

right? My early votes, it's either

19:28

George Pickens or

19:31

it's Kenan, no, it's not Kenan. It's

19:33

Chris Olave. Those are my two favorite players that I

19:35

want to bet on at their cost. Wide

19:38

receiver 28, I like better than 46 overall. Yeah,

19:41

just curious. Do you know where you have them overall in your ranks?

19:45

I can look, I've been ahead, but

19:47

I need to look, I mean, I did a little update, but. I

19:49

got it right now. You're right here, you're

19:51

at 46. And I'm at 55. So

19:54

I will take him at times, but

19:57

I'm not aggressively targeting him like you are. So

19:59

I've been here. all along. I've just

20:01

been hanging out, 46 overall, glad

20:04

people can. But yeah, George gets some sleep, man. It's

20:07

not optimal. I'm reading

20:09

another summer book about how

20:12

to engage fully with your work and everything else and

20:14

the main thing, they're just like, just get sleep. It's

20:16

not a complicated process, but are

20:18

you sleeping? And if you have young kids,

20:20

you might not be. So

20:23

we'll figure that part out. Let's take a quick break

20:25

and we'll be right back. Another

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may apply. We

21:36

are back, ready to talk through

21:38

some best ball edges that we've kind

21:40

of grinded the edges we've

21:42

mined. What else do you do

21:45

in best ball to like you grind, you

21:47

mine out, you what else? What

21:49

are we doing? You know,

21:51

I don't know. You search,

21:53

you look everywhere. We're

21:57

doing a lot behind the scenes. We're doing all those things. We're doing

21:59

all those things guys. All the things for

22:01

the people. Let's go for it. Ooh. Best

22:07

ball bonanza. Ooh. Beth

22:12

and I are gonna give five edges that we

22:14

think you need in Best Ball this year. 2024

22:18

specific, because although you could look back

22:20

at last year, we used

22:22

the same thing over and over. It's

22:24

descriptive of what happened. It's not prescriptive

22:26

of this is what you need to

22:29

do. However, there are some tried and true

22:31

things over the years that

22:33

people that drafted a certain way, it makes sense. We're

22:36

not gonna tell you to do four tight ends because the people that

22:38

did it probably didn't advance. So

22:40

there are some simple things that are tried and true

22:42

that work. But before we do that, I

22:45

wanted to give a tease because that's what

22:47

I do every single episode. I'm addicted to

22:49

a podcast tease, an audio tease. And

22:52

what I wanted to do is to give people

22:54

a little picture into what our Best Ball primer

22:57

is. So I have taken out our

23:00

content for the Arizona Cardinals. That's

23:03

has given us the team metrics. But I think one

23:05

of the things that was the biggest insight that you

23:07

gave is how this team changed. Like you can think

23:09

about the Cardinals and how bad they were last year.

23:12

And then if you just look at when Kyler

23:15

came in with really a crappy supporting cast, it

23:17

was pretty good. So give me a little snippet from the

23:19

Best Ball primer of this team, and then I'll talk about

23:21

how you could stack them. Yeah,

23:23

so basically what we do in the primer is

23:26

pull some of the metrics that we

23:28

care about the most. And it'd be

23:30

so tough for us just from a visual format

23:32

standpoint to list pre-post by. And

23:34

this guy was injured, that guy was injured.

23:36

So we just list the season. But in

23:38

the team outlook blurb, we talk about what

23:40

actually has changed and what to expect. So

23:43

look at the Cardinals, 25th on the season in

23:46

points of play. There were 25th in neutral

23:48

pass rate, 22nd in EPA per play on the season. But then

23:50

you zoom out and you say, okay, Josh

23:52

Jobs was starting for this team for two months.

23:54

Clean and tune, gotta start for this team, if

23:56

you recall. Which was a totally terrible experience for

23:58

all of us. And Kyler comes

24:00

back. When Kyler came back, this offense was top

24:03

10, knee paper play, top 10

24:05

in points per drive. They were

24:07

ninth in place for games. So you saw

24:09

the pass volume come up, you saw the

24:11

pace come up, the efficiency come up. And

24:13

now this team adds, Marvin Harrison Jr., this

24:15

team adds an explosive running back in Trey

24:17

Benson. Zach Ertz is gone. All

24:20

those things have changed just completely.

24:24

Low calorie, empty calorie routes from Rondelmoor to

24:26

the slot, those are gone. So now you

24:29

inject so much life into this offense with

24:31

Kyler who, I know you talked about

24:33

it, is a priority target right now for a lot of us.

24:35

Yes. Just the way that this team sets

24:37

up this year with how much has

24:39

changed, you also get a second year of the coaching

24:41

staff to kind of build continuity. So I really like

24:43

this Cardinals offense, like the way it sets up. Just

24:45

from a team level standpoint, I think they're gonna be

24:47

faster, I think the offense is gonna be

24:50

a lot more efficient, and they've got a ton of really

24:52

good skill players at their disposal, which last year clearly was

24:54

not the case. And then for

24:56

each team, we also talk about what we call

24:58

stackability. How does the board set up? Can you

25:00

stack this team easily? And does

25:03

it help? And so we mentioned that Kyler is one of those

25:05

priority targets for us because he's going to QB8,

25:08

it's later in your draft, it's at

25:11

a point where you can easily stack him. If

25:13

you took Marvin Harrison at the one-two turn, you

25:15

took Trey McBride in the fourth round, you

25:18

can get Kyler and just easily stack that.

25:20

But you can add a third option. Zay

25:22

Jones is somebody that we think is

25:25

gonna run a ton of routes. Like he's gonna be on the

25:27

field a ton, and Zay Jones

25:29

has had his moments where he doesn't have to

25:31

do what you need so many other

25:33

wide receivers to do. So it's really easy to

25:35

stack this team, but I like

25:38

the running backs. We'll talk about Trey Benson more today,

25:40

but he's probably gonna gain some more

25:42

meaningful touches down the stretch. And

25:44

if you look at James Connor splits, he's

25:46

going two spots ahead, the RB28, compared

25:50

to Benson, but Connor has

25:52

averaged four fewer opportunities, two

25:55

fewer fantasy points with

25:57

Kyler on the field. So like This team

25:59

is shi- That it's identity you saw on

26:01

the path like was James Conner were given

26:03

the touches. And. With Tyler, it's a

26:06

little difference can be spread out and then when

26:08

you look at their week six, he matchup and

26:10

week seventeen. There's. Some other

26:12

cheap options. Week sixteen is that Carolina you

26:14

can see gets too cheap. Rookie sub you

26:16

want a good job and Brooks was a

26:18

really get like that's really easy to make

26:20

happen. And. Then last year when

26:23

the Rams. In. Court of plays with

26:25

Tyler part of his fifty one combined point

26:27

so it's a good matchup to Targets if

26:29

you have Rams and Cardinals or the of

26:31

Carolina so. All. Of that to

26:33

say will also share our. Players that

26:35

we have the most exposure on so kind of

26:37

gonna show up for both of us. As.

26:40

A player? Is there? Another player that you're targeting is

26:42

a Benson. Yeah. There's there's a

26:44

couple, I mean trailer for sure. I'm

26:46

I'm not going to be overweight

26:48

or underweight. Mcbride or. Monitors.

26:50

Junior their take him if they're They're guys I want

26:53

and I'll take matter their kind of thing about reaching

26:55

obviously the early draft for them, but I have taken

26:57

a lot of Benson and it's more just. The.

27:00

However, to draft were alex draft a lot of

27:02

hero and zero Rb teeth or be a building

27:04

teams and Benson Or and round pick one hundred

27:06

Makes a lot of sense on those builds especially

27:09

if I already got an A bride early or

27:11

up a Marvin Harrison generally so he fits and

27:13

those teams taxes well whether you have Tyler or

27:15

not. The. First

27:18

edge. That. I want to give

27:20

us. His. I'm telling

27:22

it How to feel life. Drafting.

27:24

Running Backs: okay, If. You really want

27:26

to feel alive when you're playing. Since football, it's

27:29

usually waiting on the position like we talked about

27:31

the other day. I die. Supporters like you're in

27:33

a soup, reflects on a draft like oh man,

27:36

I don't have a quarterback yet. I am I gonna

27:38

be screwed. It can feel that way with running backs.

27:41

But. We know that zero Rb crushes

27:43

internment play. And will we talked about

27:45

zero are be. The. Reason is were

27:48

leaning into wide receivers and historically

27:50

that's been really good. That's taking

27:52

at least for wide receivers. To.

27:54

The first seven rounds okay bets you have is

27:56

your Rb article. That. we've been updating

27:59

and we will update all summer long that

28:01

gives you the targets. And

28:03

I think it can be tempting for people to

28:06

go, okay, well, if everybody's doing this, I'm

28:08

going to go the other way. Like that is tempting for me. And

28:11

I look at people like, no, this year, the

28:13

high T builds are going to

28:15

work. I'm taking three running backs. I'm going Christian

28:17

McCaffrey, Derek Henry, and Devon

28:20

HN, and it's just going to work through the

28:22

first three rounds. The

28:24

problem is, is that you're inviting a ton

28:26

of risk. And here's even the better part

28:28

that I, that I, I think this tweet

28:31

from Hayden Winx helped me out

28:33

so much. Zero RB is popular, but

28:35

only 49% of teams last year had

28:38

four wide receivers through round seven. So

28:40

half the field is doing this

28:42

strategy. It should be more like 75% if we're honest.

28:45

And so a lot of people will go the other way.

28:47

I think it's still going to end up around the same

28:49

percentage. You know, you're going to look at the

28:52

ADPs pushed up, but you know, if 55 to 60% of

28:55

the people are doing it, still not enough.

28:58

So the last couple of

29:00

years, the edge has been, if you

29:02

got four to five wide receivers before

29:04

round seven, round eight, that's

29:06

crushed, but I want to focus more on the running

29:08

backs because it's one thing to say, I'm going to

29:11

hammer wide receivers and there's a lot

29:13

of good wide receivers. I want to talk about the

29:15

biggest edge is taking a two-prong approach where you are

29:18

body bagging the dead zone running backs

29:20

and you're betting on ambiguous back fields.

29:22

So some of these guys

29:24

will be in the zero RB targets, but

29:27

if you are drafting the second running back,

29:30

if the running back one is trending

29:32

in the wrong direction with efficiency, it's

29:34

probably a good bet. Right? Like, so

29:36

you've been hating on Josh

29:38

Jacobs all year long because

29:40

the efficiency numbers are going in

29:43

the wrong direction. Najee Harris, efficiency

29:45

numbers going in the wrong direction.

29:47

Alvin Kamara, efficiency numbers going in

29:49

the wrong direction. Remindre

29:51

Stevenson, Tony Pollard, all of

29:53

these guys are being taken ahead and there's

29:56

an RB two that we like. So of

29:58

the list I just gave you, I mean. I mean all of these guys

30:01

are zero RB targets. Antonio Gibson who I will

30:03

talk about on every single podcast. Kendray

30:06

Miller, Jaylen Warren, Marshawn Lloyd,

30:08

Tajay Spears. These

30:10

are the dudes that were drafting, right? You

30:13

basically just told people what the zero RB targets are for

30:15

this. Dang it. And

30:17

this is such an edge in that. And I

30:20

agree with you and you shouldn't get

30:22

so locked in on, like

30:24

these are the guys you have to take. Obviously we

30:26

give out those picks as like these who we are

30:28

trying to take, drafts change and ADPs change and whatever,

30:30

but just this concept is so good to take home

30:32

this year and for next year and the year after

30:34

and moving forward. It's like, it has been

30:37

such an edge, especially in the middle rounds, where

30:39

there is a running back that you're like, yeah,

30:41

you signed this two year contract or three year contract, but

30:43

like, what is the talent level? Like,

30:45

is he actually going to be, you know,

30:49

like can he actually hold on to the job? And if he

30:51

does, great, but like does it matter? Like even though he has

30:53

more touches, is he efficient enough? Does he outperform

30:55

this ADP? Can his teammate beat him? And when

30:57

you look at these examples of like, you know,

30:59

Alma Kamara clearly on the decline, Najee, they declined

31:01

the fifth year option, three years in a row,

31:03

efficiencies dropped, Josh Jacobs was the worst running back

31:05

in football last year. Like clearly

31:07

there's a cohort of these guys

31:10

that are going to fail. And if you

31:12

have the guys that are their teammates that

31:14

benefit directly because they either fail or get

31:16

injured, you outperform your ADP massively because

31:19

right now the ADP and the rankings

31:21

are based off, you know,

31:23

base level projections. Everyone's healthy, everyone's good, everyone's

31:26

playing 17 games, all those things that we know, chaos

31:28

happens, and when that happens, your running back that

31:30

you have that is the RB2, can

31:33

produce like a top 12 running back if things

31:35

break right. And so this cohort here is who

31:37

I love, and I've taken a ton of all

31:39

these running backs. Yeah, I feel like

31:42

you're Opus, like if you were to write something this

31:44

off season, it's been you betting against

31:46

running backs that have turned into the

31:49

wrong way, efficiency wise, for like three years in a

31:51

row. Like I feel like that's been something

31:53

we, you know, we talked about Kamara a ton, and

31:55

Najee where you just look at the trends and it's really

31:57

not that hard, but it's like. hey,

32:01

this is not going in the right direction and

32:03

they're hitting an age curve and there's this other

32:05

running back. All of these signs point to,

32:07

maybe this is a really good bet to draft

32:09

these other players and you're also

32:12

getting leverage, right? You're getting leverage on

32:14

all the other teams that are drafting

32:16

the Remondre Stevenson, Alvin Kamara types

32:18

earlier. And I know Remondre, does that hurt your

32:20

heart a little bit? Cause he was

32:22

a big deal for you two years ago. Man,

32:25

I loved Remondre that year, but part of

32:27

it was like the same exact thing of

32:29

like- Damien Harris wasn't that good. He just

32:31

fell in the end zone a ton, which

32:33

I mean, I love touchdowns, I'm gonna be

32:35

wrong. But like when you're looking at, is

32:37

that repeatable year over year? Ask Jamal Williams,

32:39

okay? Last year and that Saints contract was

32:41

just ridiculous. It doesn't

32:43

happen, right? So that was why I was on Remondre the year

32:45

prior was, Damien Harris really wasn't

32:48

that great from a talent level, from an efficiency

32:50

level. Like there's a good chance for Remondre

32:52

who's younger could take over and he did. And

32:54

this year you're making similar bets with certain running back, you know,

32:56

back fields. And I think you're gonna hit on a couple of

32:58

those. Yeah, so the edge

33:01

comes in body bagging the dead zone.

33:03

So then we talked about the running

33:05

back, you can take, but also betting

33:07

on ambiguous back fields, okay? Mike is

33:09

doing some research. He's got an article

33:11

that's exclusive in the ultimate draft kit

33:13

plus. Mike was in the spreadsheets

33:15

deep within and we were going

33:17

through these numbers, but he looked over the last three

33:19

years. So that's really been best ball season that

33:22

we've been talking about 2021, 22, 23, and

33:26

found that there were 26 NFL teams that

33:29

did not have a running back drafting

33:31

the top 24. Okay, so that makes

33:33

sense. Like you're gonna have these other ones, but

33:36

the second running back often

33:39

was the guy who came through. He found that

33:41

of those 26 teams, 18

33:44

of them had a top 24. So it was

33:46

a 69% hit rate of finding someone that ended up

33:48

in the top 24. Last year,

33:51

eight out of nine teams actually

33:54

had somebody in the top 24. It was an 89% hit rate. So

33:57

last year's URB was awesome. And

33:59

this year, There are some examples of Trey

34:01

Benson. I love him going

34:04

after James Connor because you kind

34:06

of get that late season boost that you probably will

34:08

get. It might be rough at the beginning. We

34:10

know for a fact James Connor doesn't finish seasons. He's

34:13

never done in his career. Tajay Spears,

34:15

you mentioned earlier, he's

34:17

a great choice. And then Zach Moss and

34:19

Chase Brown. It's probably

34:21

going to be Moss, but we've never really believed in the talent.

34:24

And I don't even think Chase Brown is that good, but

34:26

it is a bet on a younger player who

34:28

can be more efficient in the passing game if

34:31

they give him the opportunity in an offense that

34:33

we like and he's cheap. So it's finding ambiguous

34:35

back fields, taking the second running

34:37

back. That is the approach. That is the edge.

34:39

If you are drafting your wider receivers early, I feel

34:42

like I'm not saying anything that's crazy. I'm

34:45

just giving numbers to back it up. For sure. And

34:47

it's tough when you're on the clock and you're like, you

34:49

know, I'm sitting here at pick like 98, Tony Pollard

34:51

is still on the board. It's a little value. Like,

34:53

you know, should I do it? I

34:56

don't know, man. I think this

34:58

is a massive edge. People like these, all

35:00

these players that you're talking about that are going

35:02

earlier, it's projection

35:04

based, but I'm not sure that they're that

35:06

good. I'm not sure they hold on to the job and

35:09

chaos happens every year. Right. And

35:11

that's what you're saying is embrace that ambiguous situation.

35:13

Like the Tennessee one to me is pretty

35:16

clear. Like I know that there's a

35:18

lot of people that say, well, didn't you hear Tony Pollard

35:21

talking about he felt healthier down the stretch last year and

35:23

that's when his numbers got better. And it's like,

35:25

well, that could be true. But to me,

35:27

there's way too big of a gap in ADP. Like Taji

35:29

Spears is what, five years younger.

35:32

He's entering year two in the league. That's when players

35:34

make the leap and you just talk

35:36

about the efficiency stuff. Tony Pollard fell off a cliff last

35:38

year and the Cincinnati one for me is

35:40

so tough because I'm going to take some of both these guys

35:42

because I do truly feel like it's kind of a coin flip.

35:45

But again, second year player and Chase Brown, I'm

35:48

not sure he's that incredible, but at this ADP, he

35:50

doesn't have to be. So that's, that's the

35:52

thing. I've talked about it with Zach Moss to it. You

35:54

know, it's one of those things that last

35:56

year at this time, everyone was like, do Zach Moss is

35:58

out of the league. This guy is. and everyone's

36:00

like, dude, Zach Moss could be the running back

36:02

one for Cincy. Are you kidding me? It's

36:05

so funny and you'd rewind a little

36:07

bit and you're like, you know what? That

36:09

seven week stretch, that six week stretch in Indy. That

36:12

was a really fun Zach Moss story, wasn't it? I

36:14

don't think we would be shocked if all of a

36:16

sudden he's terrible again, but I see

36:18

a path where it works, so I'm gonna take both these guys. But

36:20

this edge I think is massive, I think not a lot of people

36:22

do this. Yeah, with running

36:24

back, you're hoping that your team

36:26

gets stronger over the course of

36:28

the season. You're hoping that the people that took it

36:30

early either, sadly, have injuries

36:33

or your wide receivers just come

36:35

through. So there's a reason why

36:37

this strategy works because in best ball, you're

36:39

not playing the waivers. If you're

36:41

playing redraft, you are terrified if you're going

36:43

into your season with zero RB because

36:46

you have all these other people that can

36:48

outmaneuver you. But if you have five, six,

36:50

even seven running backs on your squad, you

36:53

really only need three to hit and

36:55

you're totally fine, your team can be resilient. So Betts,

36:57

you got the next one. Yeah, and

36:59

this one really does just tie in perfectly with

37:02

what you were talking about, especially at the running back position.

37:04

But I think too, wide receiver and tight end

37:06

as pass catchers is, I think the

37:08

biggest edge for me from a player take standpoint, and

37:10

we were talking a little bit before the show, it's

37:12

like player takes matter, but they're

37:14

not the only thing and sometimes people overvalue them.

37:16

And some people think they have an edge, but

37:18

it turns out you're wrong. So I

37:21

like player takes, I think they're important. But I

37:23

think player takes from a high level down is

37:26

really important. Thinking about archetypes. And what I

37:28

mean by that is, are

37:30

you prioritizing your roster for late

37:32

season upside and prioritizing talented

37:34

players that are going to be the guys you need

37:37

in December? Like think about how

37:39

silly that concept is. Like we're trying to

37:41

predict in May, June and July, who

37:43

the guys are that you need in December, week

37:45

15, 16, 17. Where

37:48

if you're playing in a tournament, that's what matters.

37:50

That's where the money is. You have to have the upside there.

37:52

And so I think about that and what our opponents are

37:54

doing and what everyone does when they enter the draft. Sit

37:57

down, you open your app, look at the ADP. And

38:00

as I just mentioned a couple minutes ago, the

38:02

ADPs and the projections are based off of, everyone's

38:05

healthy, week one, week two, week three, week

38:07

four. That does not matter

38:09

at all. You need to

38:11

be thinking about what happens later in the draft and thinking

38:13

about the players and the archetypes that are gonna get there,

38:15

who is it? Younger players,

38:17

generally, younger players that

38:19

are very talented, that have a

38:22

path to break into the upside category because

38:24

they're going late in drafts, but a teammate

38:26

might fail, just like you said. I think

38:28

about last year's example is like, where

38:30

guys are going and kind of how they get pushed up

38:32

the board because of projection in week one, Alexander

38:35

Madison, you know, truthfully, I

38:38

fell into that trap a little bit too, I'm gonna try to be better this year.

38:41

But you think about Alexander Madison, the writing was

38:43

on the wall, that he probably wasn't that talented.

38:45

Over the last two years, his

38:47

efficiency numbers had dropped, he was one of the worst running

38:49

backs in football. When you look at his yards

38:51

after contact per attempt, we

38:54

see it every year or every time, right, these

38:56

running backs that haven't ever gotten volume, and

38:58

then they're not that good, Alexander Madison, not

39:00

the guy you needed, Ty Chandler, massive smash

39:03

ADP. Let's

39:05

do it again, you know what Kyle, nine years in a row,

39:07

let's talk ourselves into Odell Beckham Jr. Like

39:09

think about how crazy that is in hindsight, like Odell

39:11

Beckham Jr. was a top 100 overall player

39:13

that was drafted in ADP as of early

39:16

August. This is not like hindsight in May,

39:18

this is August where people were like, this

39:20

is the depth chart, this is who you

39:22

need, these are the guys, I took Lamar,

39:24

I'm gonna get Odell Beckham, I took him.

39:27

It is mind blowing that thinking that 31

39:29

or two or whatever it is now, Odell

39:32

is the guy you need, he hasn't been the guy

39:34

you needed for four years, five years in a row

39:36

even, his efficiency numbers fell off a cliff, yards per

39:38

target, yards per out run, four years in a row

39:40

at decline, yet people were still like, yeah,

39:43

ninth round, 10th round, sure, sign me up for

39:45

Odell Beckham. And I'm not gonna be harsh, but

39:47

it's so true when you think about it in

39:50

hindsight, isn't it? I feel

39:52

like I'm having a come to Jesus

39:54

meeting right now. Like because you

39:58

look at rosters and you get to that... point

40:00

in your draft and you just go like I need

40:02

I just need somebody like you know Madison we were

40:04

fortunate we drafted him a ton before the news but

40:07

Beckham was like at this point was like I love Lamar

40:09

I want to pick one of

40:11

the wide receivers I bet it could be Beckham they

40:13

gave him all that money guaranteed I mean

40:16

even even the Ravens didn't know what they were doing true

40:19

another one that you know stuck out to me is

40:21

Darren Waller who if you remember at one point in

40:23

the summer in August before he had the hamstring issue

40:25

he was like a top 50 pick

40:28

like the hype on Darren Waller was

40:30

crazy yet when you look

40:32

at Darren Waller's numbers fantasy

40:34

points for game targets for outrun yards

40:37

after the catch yards for outrun every single

40:39

stat dropped in three straight years before he

40:41

got to New York the writing

40:44

was on the wall now he got injured so I'm not

40:46

saying it couldn't have ever worked but the writing was on

40:48

the wall that just from a process standpoint that was probably

40:50

a bad pick like not the guy that you think you

40:52

need in December another

40:54

couple and I'll just I'll just throw these in here real quick

40:57

Skymore and Kaderi's Tony and

41:00

I just like you

41:02

know I like kind of I'm baffled because

41:04

it's like there's Tony when

41:06

you have to tell yourself excuses year

41:08

after year after year that player is

41:10

probably not the right guy right like it's

41:13

like it's so funny and you know I

41:15

fell into this trap too again last year

41:17

with someone like Van Jefferson in LA there's

41:20

gotta be a wide receiver to hear that wins

41:23

out it's gotta be a wide receiver maybe it's

41:25

too too out well it's probably not a Venge

41:27

ever sin and B it's probably not the guy

41:29

that's 160 pounds it's been in the NFL for

41:31

three or four years right like that from a

41:33

process standpoint is so so bad yet we all

41:35

do it so my big take home here is

41:37

prioritize talent think about the player you're taking and

41:39

think about the archetype is this

41:41

guy gonna be the key piece of my lineup

41:43

not in week one not week two in

41:46

December and January I

41:48

love it and there's a lot of guys you

41:51

have listed here Kamara we've talked about a in

41:53

Eclure where things

41:55

have been trending in the wrong direction for a while and

41:58

I don't know if Washington is going to be it. If

42:01

you think Jay Daniels is going to check it down to

42:03

him in time, it could work out, right? Like Brian Roberts

42:05

can get injured and whatever, but those

42:07

are the kind of things where you just go like,

42:10

this isn't the player you need. You take him if

42:12

it falls behind ADP, it's fine, but

42:14

I would not go overweight, those kind of players. I'm

42:17

going to give an edge and I'm calling it

42:19

knocking on the back door. I

42:21

don't know if you were one of

42:23

those kid's bets, but a sign of

42:26

respect for my family was if

42:28

you knew us well enough that you just walked right in.

42:31

That's when you're a kid, it's not

42:34

like, hey, can somebody come over and play? It's like, you're

42:37

in the house, we're going to go play, we're

42:39

going to go outside, we're going to play basketball, baseball, whatever.

42:42

The back door for best

42:44

ball is something

42:46

I want to talk about where you're completing a stack,

42:48

but the way you're completing it is towards the end

42:51

of your draft round, 16, 17,

42:55

18. In best ball, you can win with two quarterbacks,

42:57

you can win with three quarterbacks. It's actually been pretty

42:59

close over the last couple of years, so I really

43:01

don't lean one way or the other, it just depends on

43:04

what quarterbacks you have and where you took them early. If

43:06

you do take a late quarterback to pair with

43:08

a stud and you're doing two quarterbacks, then

43:11

it's totally fine. You took Josh Allen, where

43:13

you took Josh Allen, you

43:15

need him to be Josh Allen. You don't need

43:17

him to be anything less. You're counting on his

43:20

score, so your QB two you should take after

43:22

round 15. That's where historically it's been. If you're

43:24

doing three quarterbacks, then you really

43:26

are taking those guys late, 15, 16, 17, 18. You are completing your

43:31

stacks at the very end, even

43:33

three quarterback builds. Keep in mind, when

43:35

you're taking a quarterback this late, you're

43:38

not thinking they're going to be a dead spot on your roster.

43:40

There are so many guys in this range around 15, 16, 17,

43:42

18 that might not even get on the

43:46

field ever. We're just assuming they're

43:48

the guy. Kimani Vidal could be

43:51

awesome. There's also a chance

43:53

he's Isaiah Spiller and he never sees the

43:55

field and this team goes in a different

43:57

direction. So keep that in mind. are

44:00

going to be playing and you're

44:03

not getting dead spots in your roster, you're

44:05

not getting the wide receiver 5 for Denver

44:07

and you're just guessing who that person is.

44:09

You're not putting Ques Watkins or

44:11

whoever the Steelers are running out there. They have a

44:14

bunch of dudes, right? Denzel Mims and all

44:16

the dudes. All the boy. The

44:19

Bills wide receivers. Right

44:21

now you could give me about 10 guys. They

44:23

all could possibly be the wider receiver 3 for

44:25

that team. It could be Matt Collins could

44:28

be whoever else they're trying out there. So we

44:31

know late quarterbacks can work in over the last couple of years. It's

44:34

been guys like Brock Purdy last year who

44:36

killed it 29% advance

44:38

rate CJ Stroud last year

44:40

Baker Mayfield Sam Howell Jordan

44:43

love all of these guys Jared Goff the

44:45

year before. You know

44:47

Smith was incredible, but

44:49

it's not just you saying I'm going to tack a

44:51

quarterback you're completing a stack and I think this is

44:53

one of the edge that when you

44:56

stack these teams together and they're

44:58

really low in 80 P. They

45:00

all can elevate your team because you don't need them

45:02

to do as much as a quarterback

45:04

in around 5 or around 6 so last year

45:06

for instance. The reason why

45:08

CJ Stroud worked is because one he's freaking awesome

45:11

and the Panthers are dumb for not taking

45:13

him, but also he had cheap options

45:15

right? It was tank Dell who was going at

45:18

186 overall. It was Nico Collins 124th overall. It's

45:22

really hard to repeat something that good, but

45:24

if you stack those players together the way you

45:26

did it was you took Nico early. You're like

45:28

I guess I need a wider receiver. I'll

45:31

take him at 124th overall and then later on

45:34

you could go you know what I

45:37

need another quarterback here. I'm going to stack him with Stroud

45:39

maybe he's a little bit better than what is 80 P

45:41

suggests and those teams had a 39% advance

45:44

rate if you stacked all three together bets

45:47

your team's advance rate was 57%. Oh

45:50

baby that's hot. Yeah, I

45:52

was comparing it's like the San

45:54

Francisco stacks killed if you had purdy CMC

45:56

and like D. Bo or or I uke

45:58

and then Dallas. you had Dak, CD

46:01

and Turd Ferguson, you did really well

46:03

too. But in

46:05

2024, we have a couple of

46:08

quarterbacks going late that

46:10

you can complete a backdoor stack with

46:12

for these builds. And I also found

46:14

that it's tempting to wanna

46:16

complete your stacks really early. You're

46:18

like, oh, I got the Pajaro Holmes Kelsey

46:20

stack. And then I got

46:23

Anthony Richardson and I don't know, Pittman

46:25

or something else. But like, you

46:28

basically have your stacks, you did

46:30

your quarterbacks. Those teams did not advance

46:32

really well. If you're taking two quarterbacks before

46:34

round nine, it's

46:36

really, you're taking a stud and then you're finding the

46:38

other ones. But this year, I want you

46:40

to tell me if you believe in these guys

46:43

and their stacking options. These are late quarterbacks going

46:45

after pick 180. It's Will

46:47

Leves, JJ McCarz, the

46:50

Garrett Carr and the

46:52

aforementioned Bryce Young. Are

46:54

you in on any of those late stacks? I'm

46:56

in on all four of those guys, which

46:58

is terrifying. Which is terrifying. Half will definitely

47:00

fail. Oh, for sure. What

47:02

do you think about, I think about

47:05

this from a game theory standpoint, think about DFS.

47:08

If this was a salary cap structure type of

47:10

game where Justin Jefferson is 8K

47:12

and Jamar chases 8.3 every week or

47:14

whatever it is, or Tareika's 9500 and

47:16

CMC's 9500, it's

47:20

hard to fit all those guys in your lineup. The way that you

47:22

get a perfect mix and match

47:24

of studs and guys that outperform their

47:26

ADP or outperform their 4K price tag

47:28

on DraftKings is the guys

47:30

that the market is not correct on.

47:32

And every year from a game theory standpoint, there are

47:35

stacks that the market is just wrong on. The

47:38

Texans last year, our perfect example, you

47:40

just don't know in this range, right? Which is why they're going

47:42

where they're going. But if the outcome

47:45

exists where things work out well for you

47:47

and the stack does hit, combining

47:49

that with your early elite quarterback stack is so

47:51

powerful to have across the entire season and in

47:53

the playoffs. So yeah, I've taken a bunch of

47:56

these guys. I mean, we talked a lot about

47:58

the Derek Carr in New Orleans, St. Louis. with pre-snap motion

48:01

and I just think the targets are

48:03

gonna be so condensed, like so condensed

48:05

between Alabe and Rashid Shahid.

48:07

I think with Bryce Young, it's obviously a very scary click

48:09

that you laid out a very good case for it a

48:12

couple weeks ago. Dave Kounalas has

48:14

worked wonders. What if he can do it again, right?

48:16

Baker Mayfield, 2.0. JJ

48:18

McCarthy, I really like because especially if

48:21

you're worried about, well does he start week one or

48:23

not, if you took someone in the first, you know,

48:25

eight rounds or so, doesn't matter. Like you're counting on

48:27

that guy's score for the first two, three months of

48:30

the season, and McCarthy could be

48:32

a late season boost. Throwing to some guy

48:34

named Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, who I

48:36

do like. And I've been pretty down on

48:38

T.J. Hockinson as like a pick, but I

48:40

think by December, when you're hoping McCarthy really

48:42

hits, T.J. Hockinson should be back

48:44

on the field too. So like that group of

48:46

pass catchers is awesome for JJ McCarthy to succeed.

48:49

I think he's low key very good as a

48:51

passer. And you know, it really

48:53

doesn't hurt that Kevin O'Connell as his OC and

48:55

head coach who is going to throw a ton

48:57

no matter who's under center. So

48:59

these guys all right here, this group, makes so much sense. Yeah,

49:02

I love all the wide receivers. You

49:04

mean you can stack up Kendry Miller with Derek Carr.

49:07

I like all these guys. Part of me wants to

49:09

double tap. The only problem is I look at their

49:11

tight ends and like, oh gosh, are we going to

49:13

do check again? Am I going to do check again?

49:16

Hockinson basically, yeah

49:18

probably. Hockinson's essentially off our board. There's no

49:21

way Hockinson's going to end up on our

49:23

teams. New Orleans, I feel like

49:25

I'm going to guess wrong with Juwan Johnson, but

49:28

you could do that. And then Carolina, they

49:30

don't give two farts about the tight end position.

49:32

Yes, they took Taveon Sanders, but it's Tommy Trimble,

49:34

it's Ian Thomas, like they don't know what they're

49:36

doing. So I wish there was a tight end

49:38

in this group that could also attach to it.

49:40

But yeah, if you go early quarterback and you

49:42

want to grab one of these guys just complete

49:44

a two QB build, I think it makes a

49:46

lot of sense. We're going to take one more

49:48

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to your happy price, please. We've

50:56

got two more edges we're

50:59

gonna give. Beth's gonna

51:01

go first, and then we're gonna do a group one.

51:03

How about that? All right, so

51:06

this edge, and this is gonna sound funny if you've been

51:09

playing for years, is still an edge.

51:11

And it is the basic roster construction

51:14

components of best ball. What

51:16

I mean by that is, you draft as if you're right, and

51:19

you stick to it. And when you look

51:21

at kind of your teams and you look at how you draft, if

51:23

you're pretty good at this, you probably are a pretty good best ball

51:25

player. But man, there are so many

51:27

drafts that I come into that people

51:29

are just making so many silly

51:31

mistakes. You know, you think about this game, it's evolved

51:34

over the last two or three years, and the mistakes

51:36

we used to see were egregious. Time

51:38

after time after time after time. The edge has

51:40

gotten a little smaller because there's more content around

51:42

best ball. People are talking about it all summer.

51:46

More people are playing. Just like any game, it

51:48

gets more efficient. But there are still so

51:50

many people that make mistakes with how they construct their roster,

51:53

whether it's not the right

51:55

positional allocation, not the right

51:57

ADP allocation to certain positions, not

51:59

the right like. build like the

52:01

four, four, seven whatever builds,

52:03

like four quarterbacks and four running backs,

52:06

like that's probably not it,

52:08

right? Like there's a really good chart in

52:10

one of Hayden's articles recently over on Underdog

52:12

Network that basically looked at like

52:14

the most common roster constructions were the best

52:16

roster constructions. You know, it's like two or

52:18

three quarterbacks, it's two or three tight ends,

52:20

it's five to seven running backs, like it's

52:22

what you would expect, but people that

52:25

do the opposite and try to get really unique of like

52:27

I'm going bully tight end this year, I'm going bully quarterback

52:29

this year, doesn't really work, yet

52:32

I see it all the time in my draft. So it

52:34

sounds silly if you've been listening for a while, if

52:36

you played yourself for a while, but I still think

52:39

one of the biggest edges you can have is just

52:41

sound roster construction, draft after draft

52:43

after draft, mix in that with a

52:45

couple of your player takes, a couple of archetypes that you

52:47

like, get some stacks and

52:49

eventually it will work out for you

52:51

and you will land on a very, very good team. So

52:54

that's a big edge to me, I just keep going back

52:56

to it. If you have a roster construction edge and it

52:58

works for you, keep doing it. You're

53:00

telling me that, you

53:03

know, when someone says, hey, I

53:05

need to have four quarterbacks, I'm looking

53:07

at one you posted here, by pick

53:09

158, that? Probably

53:13

not gonna work. Yeah, I did include here

53:15

in our little docs, these were all drafts by the way

53:17

that I did in the last week

53:20

of opponents that I drafted against. So the first

53:22

team. People we will not name. Yeah, yeah, I

53:24

took the names off, I'm not gonna embarrass anybody.

53:26

But this is a team that took Josh Allen

53:28

and Patrick Mahomes. So they spent two

53:31

picks in the top 46 on

53:34

two of the best quarterbacks in the game. And

53:36

you might think to yourself like, that's great, they're

53:39

gonna get the quarterback one every week, but you're

53:41

just wasting a score. Basically every

53:43

week of it could be an elite running

53:45

back, elite wide receiver or tight end. They

53:47

also had one wide receiver through

53:49

the first 90 picks. This

53:51

team is dead. Next team,

53:54

Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson, and Aaron

53:56

Rodgers all on the same team. That

53:58

team is dead. You keep scrolling. rolling down, I was

54:00

in a draft this morning, this man

54:03

is the highest T draft I've ever

54:05

seen. Bijon, Saquon, Josh Jacobs, Rashad White,

54:08

and David Montgomery threw 80 picks all in the

54:10

squad, five of them in a row, then Michael

54:12

Pittman and Jaden Reed. That's the squad through,

54:14

you know, what is that, seven rounds. This

54:17

stuff happens, and there's such

54:19

an edge in just sticking to what has worked

54:22

and continuing to do that. People will go sideways

54:24

with their drafts, it will not work, we just

54:26

wanna make sure our opponents make the mistakes, not

54:28

us. Yes, same thing we always

54:30

talk about in DFS. When we talk about cash, it's

54:33

like, there's a reason that you

54:35

can have a high floor team, and then at the

54:37

end of the year, you hope that

54:39

things just pop off, like in a tournament we talk about

54:41

with DFS, but for best

54:43

ball, you're just hoping you make it through,

54:46

and there's a reason that the Rashad Constructions

54:48

make their way through, and we always talk

54:50

about like, hey, just two to three quarterbacks,

54:52

you know, two to three tight ends, like,

54:55

this is what works. And when

54:57

other people are changing the board, it

54:59

can be like, oh, well, this draft

55:01

was different, because, you know, this

55:03

person was super high T, and I need to

55:05

do something different. Well, that

55:08

person is trying to come in

55:11

to a sword fight with like Jerry Judy

55:14

as their wide receiver too, or whoever it

55:16

is, like that's, there's one

55:18

that you posted here, they took CD-Lam, so I'm

55:20

like, oh, cool wide receiver. Who's their wide receiver

55:22

too? Romeo Dops, Brandon Cooks,

55:24

Tyler Lockett, who we like as

55:27

wide receiver sixes, not your

55:29

two and three that you're counting on. So yeah,

55:31

it really does come down to Rashad Construction. It's

55:34

still an itch. Still an itch. Still the thing,

55:37

still cool. All right, we have a group one, and

55:39

I figured let's do this together. Look

55:41

at those guys, look at them. They're

55:44

the bash brothers. Oh man, I have

55:47

a new favorite thing for podcasting.

55:50

It's see if I can find a

55:52

Mighty Ducks quote that we can use on the

55:55

podcast that makes somewhat sense for what we're doing.

55:58

I think this makes sense. Bash broin?

56:01

Yeah. Okay, so before we

56:03

get into that big question here, are

56:05

you more of like the full read or the

56:07

Dean Portman of the Bash Bros? Or? Bournery

56:10

dude, obviously. Okay.

56:13

Why, you wanna be Fulton? Well, technically

56:15

there's a third Bash Brother in D2

56:17

when Kenny Wu gets in penalty box

56:20

and the nouns are like, no, there are three Bash

56:22

Brothers. Yeah, but we're not talking about that. We're

56:24

talking about the OG. I mean, I'll be

56:26

Dean Portman. Like you don't care. Fine. He's

56:29

a contrarian. So

56:31

Betts and I are gonna talk about this

56:33

and the title that I'm giving is Unnecessary

56:35

and Indecent Exposure. Because

56:41

if you haven't done this recently, you

56:43

can find your exposures in Underdog

56:45

and saying, hey, I've done, I don't know how many you've done,

56:47

20, done a hundred drafts, a thousand drafts, whatever you've done,

56:49

you sickos, you

56:52

can see your player exposures. Keep

56:54

that and kind of ask yourself the question, is

56:57

this a little too much? Like are you over the

56:59

edge? And Betts and I will kind of give you

57:02

some parameters around

57:04

this. But when you're drafting,

57:06

you kind of get into the same habits and that's kind

57:08

of how we are as people. You'll end up in the

57:10

same routines and you look up after a couple drafts, you're

57:12

like, whoa, I am way

57:14

overweight this player and I don't even know if I meant to.

57:17

But then you have to go into this, you

57:19

know, whole thing where you go, dear Lord, please

57:22

let this combination of Kyle Pitts,

57:24

Keon Coleman, Tyler O'Geal and Kamani

57:26

Vidal hit and it will be

57:28

perfect this year. And you look

57:30

up and you're like, you're asking for

57:32

four random players to basically be

57:35

everything for you and

57:37

that just gets scary. It's really

57:39

scary. So anything above 25%

57:41

and it obviously matters based on how many

57:43

drafts you've done. If you've only done like

57:45

five drafts or 10 drafts, don't worry

57:48

about this. But if you've done 50

57:50

or more drafts and you

57:52

are above 25%, that

57:55

is quite bullish for somebody. You are saying I

57:57

really, really like this player. Just so you know.

58:01

8.3% is normal because there's 12 teams and

58:04

you know only one person gets picked.

58:06

So anything about 25% is

58:08

really bullish. I've had years where I've

58:10

been 35% on

58:13

a player and that's really really high but

58:16

we want diversity in our team and so

58:18

Pat Corain and even give him a shout

58:21

out he was the one who had some

58:23

great stuff recently. He won best ball mania

58:25

3 so I don't know.

58:27

Pat knows what he's talking about but he did

58:29

some research and found that it's

58:31

more focusing on your team rather than just

58:33

your player takes and I feel like best

58:36

ball can easily become just

58:38

a player take scenario. I like this player. I think

58:40

he can break out. I think he'd be good. That's

58:42

part of it but he looked at

58:44

teams that maxed out this pasture in best ball

58:47

mania meaning they put 150 entries. They put up

58:49

a lot of money and it's a lot of

58:51

data a big data set. He found the average

58:53

advance rate for the least diversified teams was only

58:55

14.6%. The

58:58

average advance rate for the most diversified was 18.7

59:00

so it was above expectation. When

59:04

you concentrate only on player takes when

59:07

you're correct it's awesome. It hits. You

59:10

know upside is there. You were right.

59:12

I like Antonio Gibson this year but

59:15

I understand that there is risk if I only take

59:18

Antonio Gibson teams and I think this team

59:20

depends on Antonio Gibson. It's one thing if

59:22

he's my RB 3 or

59:24

4. If I'm going into this thing

59:26

riding dirty saying Antonio Gibson's my RB 2 that's

59:29

pretty dangerous and I could be wrong.

59:31

Is it possible

59:33

to have a team like that? Isn't

59:35

he going like 170? Oh dude he's

59:38

in the 160s now. Okay but

59:40

before being if you're waiting till that to take your RB 2 your

59:44

team is done already Kyle. I hate to inform

59:46

you. No my main point was

59:48

basically saying if you're saying I know that

59:50

this is right about a player Antonio Gibson

59:52

or anybody else out there

59:54

you're just like I know that this player is going to hit.

59:57

There is risk and so when you

59:59

have a flatter exposure rate, it

1:00:02

can do that. Now this doesn't mean, okay

1:00:04

well I'm on the clock and I've been taking a lot of this

1:00:06

player, I'm gonna take somebody else that

1:00:08

I don't like. Like we're not telling you

1:00:10

to do that, we're just telling you to avoid

1:00:12

the habit of taking the

1:00:14

same player combos. It's the Antonio Gibson

1:00:17

plus, you know, Rashid Shahi plus whatever,

1:00:19

and you end up looking at Josh

1:00:21

like, I have four guys that are

1:00:23

almost on every single roster. So

1:00:25

we're talking more about mixing it up and that we want

1:00:27

a pool of players. I

1:00:30

know there's some guys that you're overweight on, but it doesn't

1:00:32

mean you're gonna take the combination on every single team. Yeah

1:00:35

for sure, and this is one that I think is really interesting

1:00:37

because some people like to play more

1:00:39

aggressively and say like, I love this group of

1:00:42

six players and I wanna try to get a

1:00:44

really good amount of exposure to them, and that's

1:00:46

fine, and I'm not saying you shouldn't do that because there are guys

1:00:48

that I will probably try to do that with this year, to the

1:00:50

come to mind off the top of my head, like fifth

1:00:53

round Mark Andrews is gonna make a break in the season, like

1:00:55

straight up. Like I think he's way too undervalued. He's never done

1:00:57

that before for us. Never done that before. Kyle,

1:00:59

you know what, he was great last year, that dang high ankle

1:01:01

sprain. The hip drop tackle man, and

1:01:04

Jalen Warren, and I purposely want to be

1:01:06

20%, maybe 25% on those guys. I

1:01:10

don't wanna be 50%, but I also don't want

1:01:12

every team I draft to have both Jalen Warren

1:01:14

and Mark Andrews and the same guy who was

1:01:16

taking round six and the same guy who was

1:01:18

taking round 12, right? Like you get into trouble

1:01:21

when all your teams kinda

1:01:23

start to look alike except for like three

1:01:25

or four guys. Like you really wanna have

1:01:28

exposure to different teams that

1:01:30

can take it down. Again, don't wanna be focused so much on

1:01:32

this is the player I need, but this is

1:01:34

kinda the combination that might get me there is kinda how

1:01:36

I think about it. And so I think

1:01:38

about that throughout the summer. I really think one issue that

1:01:40

a lot of people have is like you draft all summer,

1:01:43

you're having a great time, you're hanging out

1:01:45

by the pool, you're on the deck with a drink, you're drafting all

1:01:47

summer and all of a sudden you get to like August 15th and

1:01:49

you're like, I didn't really want,

1:01:51

you know, 50% of, I don't know, feeling

1:01:55

a right to running back or something. Yeah, a Rico

1:01:57

Daddle and you're like, now I gotta fix it, right?

1:01:59

and you go into drafts like the last two or three weeks, and

1:02:02

you're just trying to like take anybody with Rico

1:02:04

down, so then you're not drafting your team to

1:02:06

win, you're just drafting to try to fix your

1:02:08

exposures in the last month of the season, which

1:02:10

you don't wanna do. So think about it all

1:02:13

summer long as you're drafting. I try to, for

1:02:15

me, I try to look at my exposures every,

1:02:18

I don't know, like two weeks, and just kinda make sure

1:02:20

I'm in check with something I actually wanna do. The

1:02:22

worst thing is when you get to the end of the season,

1:02:25

you're like, I did not want that to happen, but now you're

1:02:27

locked in and you can't really change it. And

1:02:31

it's about having a pool of players at

1:02:33

every single, like you don't need to queue

1:02:35

up right now a player and

1:02:37

auto draft Devin DuVernay or whatever else you're gonna

1:02:40

do, but instead you have a pool of players

1:02:42

every single time, like, hey, I would love this

1:02:44

player was there, but there's

1:02:46

three or four guys right here, and there's always three

1:02:49

or four guys, people need to realize that there's not

1:02:51

just one player at every single pick that's the only

1:02:53

pick, you know, there's a pool of guys,

1:02:55

there's lots of wide receivers that are, you know, when

1:02:57

you see they're all grouped together, it's like, is

1:03:00

Garrett Wilson that much different than Drake London and

1:03:02

Chris Olave? They've been pretty similar so far. London's

1:03:05

had the lowest volume, but like, they're

1:03:08

similar and they might end up similar,

1:03:10

like they totally could. So keep that

1:03:12

in mind. Also think about team stacks.

1:03:15

You want different exposure to a team and how it

1:03:17

could end in week 16, week 17. So

1:03:20

when I was talking about the Saints earlier, it's like, I would

1:03:23

love Olave and Derek Carr, but

1:03:25

I could also see it being Kendra Miller and

1:03:28

Juwan Johnson, and that's how you

1:03:30

get to add that other piece on, and

1:03:32

it's totally fine. So we care about team

1:03:35

and team environment and team combinations. So

1:03:38

it's kind of this weird give and take because I

1:03:40

can't tell people this across

1:03:42

the board directive of you

1:03:45

just need to concentrate on having a more

1:03:47

diverse team because then we're pushing

1:03:49

inside the player takes. It's a give and

1:03:51

take, and it's more saying that they both

1:03:53

can work. You can have player takes

1:03:56

and then not go to 50% on

1:03:58

whoever you want to take. Realize

1:04:01

that a lot of people you will never

1:04:03

have because you won't be on that side of the board. You

1:04:06

know, you're just, like, you know,

1:04:08

you're that person that thinks that Underdog is

1:04:10

out to get you and has a conspiracy theory, they're always giving you

1:04:12

a late pick. Just

1:04:14

know everybody has the same thing. Everybody, I get

1:04:17

messages every single year. Why am I only getting

1:04:19

a late pick? You're just

1:04:21

gonna be on different sides of the board. So focus on teams

1:04:23

that win, not just a player

1:04:25

or a player take. Yeah,

1:04:28

that's our little edges. Do you think

1:04:30

this year we will have somebody who

1:04:32

takes down one of the big tourney?

1:04:36

I mean, I think if you follow this, you

1:04:38

are guaranteed to print money. I think that's just how it works,

1:04:41

Kyle. That's, and contractually, how much

1:04:43

do they have to give? Oh,

1:04:45

only 10%. Yeah, it's only 10%, it's not that bad.

1:04:48

Okay.