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Elementary, all new. Wednesdays

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9-8 central on ABC and stream

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on Hulu. The

1:00

DFS studio is brought to you by

1:02

Draft Kings. Welcome

1:18

to the Fantasy Footballers DFS and

1:21

Betting Podcast with your hosts Kyle

1:23

Borgannoni and Matthew Betts.

1:31

Welcome back ladies and gentlemen. It's

1:35

February 9th, the final

1:37

edition of the DFS and

1:39

Betting Podcast of this season. I'm your host

1:41

Kyle Borgannoni and I'm joined as always by

1:43

Matthew. He's playing for all the Marvel's bets.

1:46

This is it dude. One

1:48

last hurrah before you and I,

1:50

you know, get a little two month vacation off work. Hibernate.

1:54

We're doing nothing for the next two months. Kicking up our feet.

1:56

Corporate can't tell us what to do. Always

1:58

a bittersweet time of year man. I love

2:01

the off season. It's really exciting

2:03

because we get to just unwind from

2:06

everything that happened and actually take a step back and try

2:09

to wrap our heads around it and how we can improve moving

2:11

forward. But also, I love

2:13

this show, man. And I love the season, I love

2:15

the weekly grind of the DFS schedule and all that

2:17

sort of stuff. I know a lot of people that

2:19

listen, a lot of people that play, love that too.

2:21

So it's always bittersweet, but one last hurrah, man. We'll

2:23

try to make someone a million bucks on this show.

2:25

What do you say? That

2:28

would just be, that would mean the world to me. If

2:31

it was a listener, if it was me. More

2:33

importantly, if it was me, let's be honest. Okay,

2:35

all right. Betts and I obviously

2:37

have a binding contract that anything we

2:39

say on this podcast, if

2:41

you win money from it, you can just forward that. I

2:44

have a great Venmo, I'll send you later. But,

2:48

yes, it's the big game. It's Super Bowl,

2:50

we're gonna talk through this game from

2:53

a DFS level. So, you know, showdown

2:55

on DraftKings is different than how we

2:57

usually talk about DFS. So we

2:59

have a lot of takes, there's a lot of nuance to

3:01

it. So we can say, I really

3:03

like this player at the flex position, I will not

3:06

be playing this player in the captain position and vice

3:08

versa. I'll be underweight, overweight. On

3:11

this build, I'll use this player and

3:13

this other one, they don't even exist. So

3:15

we'll go through all of the nuance of that with

3:17

you. We will prop it like it's hot, and Betts

3:19

and I will give you a healthy

3:22

dose of our props

3:24

and hopefully, at the very end,

3:26

when we reveal our master parlay, you can ride

3:28

with us. We've had some good runs and good

3:30

sweats with the team and the

3:32

people recently. So, yes, it's the

3:34

final episode of the quote unquote

3:36

2023 season. And

3:39

then Betts and I just go on a very short

3:41

hiatus. Okay, so Betts

3:43

and I are off season schedule for this podcast

3:46

as we take a quick break. And the beginning

3:48

of April, we come back and

3:50

we go through the NFL draft from betting

3:53

and props perspective, the over under lines.

3:56

Behind the scenes, Betts and I have already started

3:59

sharing our comments. confidence intervals of what's out

4:01

there in the market. There's not a ton of

4:03

props. You know, it's like Caleb Williams to go

4:05

number one overall at minus 900. You

4:07

probably don't want to lay that. But

4:09

Betts and I are kind of going through and talking about how

4:11

we feel about these picks, looking at our

4:13

draft boards. We're also participating

4:16

in the Dynasty podcast. So our actual

4:18

prospect evaluation is mixed in with

4:20

the betting markets. So we'll be doing that

4:22

for April. In May, we do

4:24

a lot of team projections and win totals, which

4:26

is by far the strongest thing we do with

4:29

this podcast every single year. Those

4:31

episodes win people a ton of money

4:33

in season-long projections. June and

4:35

July, we do the summer of Bestball. We have our Bestball

4:37

rankings that come out. And then August,

4:39

we get you ready for another season of DFS.

4:42

So my question for

4:44

you is, what do you do

4:46

for the next two months, Betts? Like what? What

4:48

are you personally? This is just a look inside your

4:50

life. Oh, man. What are you looking forward

4:52

to for the next two months? Like what's on your radar?

4:55

Well, you see, when you're a dad

4:57

of two screaming one-year-olds that

4:59

are fully in toddler mode, that's

5:02

mostly the priority here. My wife has

5:04

been an absolute saint all season. So I plan to help her

5:06

out a little bit more over the next couple of months when

5:08

I can. Also, I'm looking forward

5:10

to a little bit of golf when the weather

5:12

finally does warm up a bit, put down on

5:14

the course whenever I can. But from a work

5:16

perspective, like you said, we're really for

5:19

you and I, and Dynasty last year for us,

5:21

the Dynasty podcast was new. And

5:23

that didn't really launch until April. So

5:25

now we actually kind of have a new offseason

5:28

schedule where you and I are seriously like in

5:30

the weeds on every prospect from their analytical profile

5:32

to their film, talking about it

5:34

with one of the ballers on our show,

5:36

Dynasty podcast weekly. So we'll be

5:38

doing that every week. And I really do think

5:41

that that is going to

5:43

help not only listeners this summer

5:45

when we come back on the show, but also you and

5:47

I, when we kind of think about like forecasting the

5:51

award markets of Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive

5:53

Rookie of the Year, how

5:56

you approach those rookies in best ball because sometimes when

5:58

you see the ADPs in best ball, Yeah,

6:00

like I know that name. He'll probably go in the third round like

6:02

sure why not? But we know every

6:04

year there's a Joel and Jalen Tolbert who the analytical

6:06

profile does not look good on and we're gonna have

6:08

our Heads wrapped around that pretty good as

6:10

we come back in April May and June So I'm

6:13

excited just to get down in these rookies man. It

6:15

should be an awesome season for the dynasty pass which

6:18

On Super Bowl Sunday in just a couple days will be out for

6:20

you to get Yes,

6:22

I know for me. I'm looking forward to

6:26

My son Truman is starting starting baseball starting tee

6:28

ball But he's a lefty and so, you know

6:30

I've been training him since birth when I tied

6:32

his right arm behind his back and forced him

6:34

to become a left-handed Oh, so he throws left-handed.

6:36

Oh He's oh, he's all

6:39

me and sell a lefty Dude,

6:41

I should have you want he's Someone's

6:43

gonna run with that and say I really did

6:45

that and report me But no like he it

6:47

is fun teaching someone how to play a sport

6:49

that like my brain has to think differently because

6:51

I'm a variety. I played shortstop growing up like

6:53

I So that's not

6:55

in his future. He's not probably not

6:58

gonna be a left-handed shortstop But so

7:00

I'm excited about that part of the spring

7:04

Yeah doing some house projects and then yeah a lot

7:06

of this is behind the scenes projection

7:08

stuff the ultimate draft kit Yeah,

7:12

I like that side of the offseason to be

7:14

more creative and then Betts and

7:16

I we've mentioned this before But every

7:18

offseason we do a little book club With

7:22

People that listen to this podcast also that

7:24

want to stay connected on this cord and

7:26

this year the book that we chose is

7:29

score casting Which is

7:31

the hidden influences behind how sports are

7:33

played and games are won by Moscow it's

7:35

in Wertheim You can find it on Amazon

7:37

or wherever else. It's actually an older book But

7:41

I think it's worth Having

7:43

conversations with people about the behind the scenes

7:45

stuff with sports and having more nuanced takes

7:48

So if you're one of those people that I've already

7:50

read that book Well, I'm about to send out probably

7:52

a list of about four or five others that are

7:54

on my that are in my pile This

7:57

offseason, so I've got a couple but that's the one that and

8:00

I are reading together and I know we'll have some more people.

8:02

So what could be cooler than

8:04

an off-season book club with people that just

8:07

ended their podcast for a couple of weeks?

8:09

I mean, when kids, you know, when

8:11

they grow up, they're like, what do you want to be? I

8:13

would love to be a fantasy football analyst who

8:15

reads about sports forecasting. I mean, that's what dreams

8:18

are made of, Kyle. Am I right? Yes.

8:21

And apparently we only read books that end in

8:23

casting. A couple of years ago, we did super

8:25

forecasting, which was probably

8:28

one of my favorite reads we did together. We started

8:30

this process. That was a great book. If you haven't

8:32

read super forecasting, we

8:34

were joking about it beforehand. My wife went

8:36

to my son's preschool class and they had like kind of

8:39

a career day and she's a

8:41

teacher. So she got to explain like,

8:43

here's what I do. Here's my name tag. Here's how a teacher

8:45

plans. And I was at dinner with

8:48

my wife. Of course, you know, where

8:51

are we at? You should

8:53

let everyone know about this. This was so good.

8:56

Obviously at Chili's. I was obviously at

8:58

Chili's with my wife, but because she texted me and said, hey, you

9:00

want to go on a date? And

9:02

I said, ooh, where? And all she said was

9:04

that little, you know, red hot pepper chili emoji.

9:07

And I knew I was in. So what'd

9:09

you get? It was what

9:12

did I can't. This is

9:14

this how much I know I love my wife because when we sat

9:16

there and by the way, people,

9:19

great, great establishment.

9:21

Also a great bit on this podcast. It is. It

9:24

can be both things. It is both things. I

9:27

know. And people don't understand that. But

9:30

we were sitting there and she goes, imagine getting

9:32

something else. That's the way she said it to me. And

9:34

I was like, I love you. KZD

9:36

Explosion Salad Man with extra dressing on the side

9:38

and chips and salsa. Take her on. Yeah.

9:41

No, it was good. But she said

9:43

at the table, she goes, what would you tell people

9:46

like if you went to our son's class, like what

9:48

would you say? What would you show them you do?

9:50

Are you going to print off some spreadsheets? So

9:52

she roasted me. I

9:55

was going to walk in there and tell all

9:57

these kids about third downs for running backs and

9:59

how they mean nothing. for fantasy, it's

10:01

just really helping shape the future

10:03

of this world. I

10:06

mean, if we've learned anything on

10:08

this podcast, people, hopefully you've heard

10:10

me say it over and over again. I know

10:12

I have strong takes sometimes, but third downs, come

10:14

on. Don't, but they don't

10:16

matter for running backs, unless

10:18

you're Christian McCaffrey. In

10:21

that case, you are awesome. So it'll

10:23

be a good off season. Um, feel

10:26

free to message Betts on Twitter at

10:28

the fantasy PT. I'm at Kyle underscore

10:30

board on Twitter. And yes, the fantasy

10:32

ballers team. I

10:34

mean, we're still producing tons of podcasts every single week

10:36

to on the main show, one of

10:38

the dynasty podcasts, a foot cast for foot

10:40

claim members. And then yeah, Betts

10:43

and I will be coming back in April and staying

10:45

with you all year long. So let's

10:48

talk about this, uh, apparently really,

10:50

really, really big game. And

10:54

here's the drop Kyle. State

10:59

of the main slate. And

11:02

I couldn't even find the drop. I feel like I should have

11:04

been in that peak mode at the

11:06

very end of the year, but here

11:08

we are. You're already in the mode. I

11:11

know I'm already, I'm already checked out here. Let's talk

11:13

about from a top

11:15

down perspective about this game. And by the way,

11:17

on the website, that's written up the Vegas report.

11:19

I wrote a pace of play article that was

11:22

a joy to drill

11:24

down on just one game. And we're, that's, we're about

11:26

to talk for the next like 30 plus minutes about

11:28

one game. And I feel

11:31

like we're only going to scratch the surface. Yeah, it

11:34

is pretty wild how you can kind of talk yourself

11:36

in and out of not only just different players in

11:38

the game, but how you see the game

11:40

going, um, game scripts, all that sort

11:42

of stuff. So yeah, dude, but I feel like when

11:44

we do have this much time to talk about one

11:46

game, you really do uncover

11:48

a little bits of information that, you

11:50

know, on a main slate, when we're, we're pushed for time

11:53

to analyze 12 games or something, you know,

11:55

you do miss a couple of details here and there, but really

11:57

when you can dive into all the data, think

11:59

about content. around each player, like it really

12:01

does help. So I'm hopeful that we can uncover

12:03

some edges and if you did not read Kyle's

12:05

pace of play, oh brother,

12:08

I mean, it's really funny. In

12:10

Slack, when you post the article link, it gives

12:12

you a little description of how long, roughly

12:15

it would take to read the article. Kyle

12:17

posts it 15 minutes to

12:19

read one article about one game. So

12:21

Kyle's a sicko and he's here for

12:23

you people. I

12:25

am here for you. Quick question though, before

12:28

we get into the lines and everything else we got asked this

12:30

question and I thought it was an appropriate

12:32

kind of table setter, a little tease, a little icebreaker,

12:35

as I do like to tease. This is

12:38

from Bea Goldfish on Discord. Ask

12:40

what our top three Super Bowl apps

12:42

are. So do you

12:45

have a quick couple? I

12:48

mean, this is probably, this is the chalk

12:50

selection, but how do you watch the

12:52

Super Bowl without Buffalo Chicken Dip? I mean, that to

12:55

me is at the top. That's my number one. So

12:57

good. I'm also a

12:59

huge fan of charcuterie boards and

13:02

actually in season, my wife and I, it's really fun. For

13:04

the four o'clock slate, we usually make one as kind of

13:06

like an appetizer. So charcuterie board for me

13:08

is up there. Buffalo Chicken Dip is

13:10

up there. And I

13:13

know Mike mentioned his special dip

13:15

on the main show. So I'm gonna throw that

13:17

into my, as my third as well, because that's

13:19

a great one to have. Yeah,

13:22

dips is kind of at the top for me. Like

13:24

I just, I'm fine with that. Don't

13:27

mind wings, but I'm not, I'm not thinking like I

13:29

have to have wings. I want

13:31

Buffalo Chicken Dip. Number one, I just

13:33

wanna dip as many tortilla chips as

13:35

possible on that thing. You

13:38

know, sliders are great. If you have a couple of those sliders,

13:40

I'm fine with that too. But man,

13:43

just give me some pizza and I'm

13:45

good to go. I'm totally happy. Dip it in

13:47

some ranch. I'll

13:49

be a happy person. But these days, like

13:51

going to Super Bowl parties with kids is

13:54

like, oh, well, we're gonna go to like halftime and

13:56

then we're gonna go, you know, put them down. Like

13:58

it's not as exciting as the year. It's always to

14:00

be, so. Times are changing. I

14:03

know. All right, so right now, the

14:05

line has pretty much stayed stable at San

14:07

Francisco minus two, the over-under is 47 and

14:09

a half. Any

14:12

leans on, or any

14:15

information about how the public still been betting

14:17

this, because it's kind of been one-sided, and

14:20

how you feel about that? Yeah,

14:22

so I put a lot of the details of

14:24

what I'm gonna talk about in the Vegas report, just

14:27

giving us an idea of how I think the general

14:29

public thinks this game is going to go, and

14:32

then trying to use that for DFS purposes. So basically,

14:35

everything that I'm seeing, no matter what book you

14:37

track, people that are on

14:40

social media will post this kind of stuff and give you information, but

14:42

I'm seeing so much money, dude,

14:44

pouring on KC Moneyline, KC

14:47

plus two and a half. And the

14:49

line, like you said, hasn't really moved. I mean, it

14:51

is bouncing back between one and a

14:53

half to two, two and a half back to two, so it

14:55

has kind of matured over the course of the last two weeks.

14:59

And I put this out on Twitter as a poll, just like, hey, what do

15:01

you guys think? And the results were 68%

15:03

of KC plus two, and

15:07

only a fraction of people in on San Francisco

15:09

to win the game at minus two. So I

15:11

think a lot of people just think the Chiefs

15:13

should be favored here. And even last week when

15:15

we talked, I felt that way. So I'm

15:18

always hesitant when I see

15:21

something that 70% of people

15:23

agree with, because we know these lines are so

15:25

efficient, that the other side, if you just kind

15:27

of blindly assume that Vegas, when you look at

15:29

kind of how the money works out is correct

15:31

more often than not, I think

15:34

49ers heavy builds on

15:36

the slate are a great way just from a

15:38

top level perspective to get contrarian, because I do

15:40

think everyone is like, how can I not play

15:42

my homes this week? Like, oh my gosh, how

15:44

can I not play Kelsey, a captain this week,

15:46

right? So there's a lot of love, I think,

15:49

for KC just in general in the market, but

15:51

the line is not really moving, so I am

15:53

very skeptical on that. Yeah,

15:55

I have a hard time, you and I were talking about

15:57

this behind the scenes, but it's one thing

15:59

to... see public money on the Chiefs and

16:02

there's just, you know, your buddy who's like, of

16:04

course I'm taking my homes and Kelsey and it's,

16:06

you know, Chase money on, that's fine. It's

16:09

another step to then look at this from

16:11

a, we're playing a game that

16:14

has salary constraints and the

16:16

wrinkle in it this time is, you know, you're, you know,

16:19

whoever you're playing a captain their salary goes up one and

16:21

a half. So is that reflected

16:23

in at first? I was like, Oh, that's, you know,

16:25

it's still going to be pretty even people are going

16:27

to 49ers, but we're seeing a lot

16:29

of bills in roster percentage that is reflecting what

16:31

the betting market's doing, which is a lot of

16:34

chiefs and a lot of Travis Kelsey,

16:36

which makes sense. He's been on a roll. We'll

16:38

talk about in a second, but a 30% target

16:41

share in the playoffs is very different than the

16:43

Travis Kelsey we saw, you know, from

16:45

week 12 on. So I'm

16:48

a little hesitant to just go

16:50

fully in on 49ers, but

16:52

you and I talk all the time. The

16:54

way you get different in showdown builds is

16:56

if you have four, two or five, one

16:58

bills. In other words, you have four players

17:00

from the side that is winning this thing.

17:04

And although the 49ers are favored, it

17:06

seems like the public thinks that the chiefs

17:08

are a better play as moneyline

17:10

play. So my early take in this game, and I

17:12

think you and I feel the same is

17:14

I'm just going to lean more into builds where

17:17

the 49ers come out winning this thing. Yeah. And

17:19

just to speak to kind of what our opponents are going to do when

17:21

you think about, um, three three,

17:24

meaning three chiefs, three four niners, or,

17:26

you know, two, four, four, two, what have you the

17:29

vast, vast majority of lineups on this slate

17:32

are going to feature one of three, three

17:34

or Casey for San Francisco

17:36

to most likely is kind of what

17:38

we're seeing. So, and

17:40

you know, in tournaments, especially where

17:43

you really do just care about the tail end outcomes,

17:45

not what happens most of the time, what happens just

17:48

this one time. If the game goes

17:50

sideways and you think the

17:52

chiefs smash a five, one chief spilled is

17:54

ultra contrarian. The

17:56

49ers five, one build is

17:58

very, very contrarian. and almost no

18:00

one is doing that. So again, probably not gonna

18:03

happen that many times, but if you simulate this

18:05

game a thousand times, and it happens a handful

18:07

of times, and those times that happen you have

18:09

the lineup, you will get paid off

18:11

handsomely. So I'm thinking about that from just the tail

18:13

end outcomes of yeah, I'm willing

18:16

to understand if I don't cash

18:18

with a contrarian build, that's okay. I'll take

18:20

my lineups and move on to next year, but if

18:22

it does hit, you'll get paid out massively. So I'm

18:24

thinking about just how the field's gonna play their lineups

18:26

with that three-three build, and trying to

18:28

get off that a little bit as well. Betts

18:31

and I approached this from a

18:33

tournament-only perspective. We don't really

18:35

play cash. Now, if you're one of those people that play with

18:37

your friends, you have a season-long league, there

18:39

are high floor picks, so we'll kind of mention that. I'm

18:42

probably gonna have Isaiah Pacheco in a lineup if

18:44

I'm playing that, just because the salary,

18:46

the opportunities, everything else, like mixes with that,

18:49

but you're gonna have to get different. And

18:51

just to give you some perspective, last year,

18:54

sorry, your Eagles lost, but

18:56

it was a wild Super Bowl that

18:59

smashed the over, and the winning

19:01

lineup, I went back in the Million Maker, the winning

19:03

lineup was a four-two Eagles

19:05

build with Jalen Hurst

19:07

as captain, stacked with A.J. Brown, Devonta

19:10

Smith, Jake Elliott, and

19:13

then the two chiefs were Patrick

19:15

Mahomes and your boy

19:17

Jodie Fortson at $200. You

19:21

could have given me 20 guesses, but

19:23

I never would have pumped with Jodie Fortson. No,

19:26

because you scored as many DK points as him

19:28

last year. It was about his

19:30

salary. Yeah, and

19:33

so I bring that up,

19:35

not to say like, oh, we'll just copy that, or find

19:37

the $200 person. Just

19:39

get weird, people. It's totally fine,

19:41

it's the last one of the year, it's the

19:43

last dance, so make sure you have

19:46

fun with this. But I think roster construction matters

19:49

more to me than player takes only,

19:51

and when you construct your roster, you're

19:54

going with the game flow that says, okay, the 49ers roll, or

19:56

the 49ers come back, and if the 49ers

19:58

come back, Here's the combination of

20:00

players I need. So for instance, we'll

20:03

talk about Jawan Jennings. He's

20:06

4K, which is actually kind of expensive for the role

20:08

that he is. So I just

20:10

can't see Jawan Jennings being a player I

20:12

have to have at 4K when there's so

20:15

many other cheap players. But in

20:17

builds where I have the 49ers coming back and

20:20

he's on the field more in three wide receiver sets, sure,

20:23

he makes a ton of sense. And you know, maybe he

20:25

gets a touchdown somewhere, gets three

20:27

or four catches and he can pay off. But

20:30

at 4K, if I compare him to Noah

20:32

Gray or the Chiefs wide

20:34

receivers or CEH, it's like

20:36

that's pretty expensive. So the context

20:38

of each player, their cost,

20:40

how they fit in really matters and

20:43

how they combine together. So

20:46

when looking at these two teams, the

20:48

San Francisco offense, almost every single metric,

20:52

they show up as just number

20:54

one, number one in EPA per play, number

20:56

one in EPA per pass, number

20:59

one in EPA per rush, play success rate,

21:01

explosive rush rate. They're awesome.

21:04

And yet this Chiefs defense is the best one

21:06

that we've seen in the Patrick Mahomes era, minus

21:10

one key statistic, and that's

21:12

against the run. So I want to

21:15

start the conversation there when we come back from

21:17

break, because I think Christian

21:20

McCaffrey is what you and I would

21:22

say is the most important part of this slate. And

21:24

the thing that if you get Christian McCaffrey right, and

21:27

you figure out how to use him best, then I think you can

21:29

win this. So let's take a quick break. Ryan

21:36

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protein. Protein. That's pro you.

22:11

I mean

22:15

the anticipation of me building up and

22:17

then saying we're going to talk about

22:19

the best running back on the planet

22:21

in just a hot second and

22:24

people are here for it. So let's

22:27

start with Christian McCaffrey because he's the most expensive player on the

22:29

slate at 12 K and just to

22:32

go back I went through the Super Bowl last four years. My

22:35

home is 12 K one year and this is

22:37

it. McCaffrey a running back at

22:39

12 K is insane. Is

22:43

he worth it on this slate but as a captain

22:45

and a flex play to you. He is and

22:48

you know this is kind of one of those areas where I'm

22:50

not really looking to get different like Christian

22:53

McCaffrey's projection is unreal.

22:55

When you think about the role he's had in the

22:57

regular season and then you zoom in on the

22:59

playoffs. Elijah Mitchell literally

23:02

only touched the ball against the Lions because McCaffrey

23:05

fell on his head at the goal line came out

23:07

for a couple of plays and Elijah Mitchell fell in

23:09

the end zone. Otherwise, Christian McCaffrey projects

23:11

to touch the ball 99% of the time

23:13

when he's in there. It's the

23:16

last game of the year. They're not saving him

23:19

for anything. Obviously when you consider his workload projection

23:21

you consider the usage in the passing game. You

23:23

consider his goal line role and you consider the

23:25

matchup as you mentioned against this KC defense that

23:27

you can run on. To

23:30

me he's just an unbelievable play and you

23:32

know looking at the season long numbers when San

23:35

Francisco has been on an island game. We've

23:37

had showdowns. He's been rostered a captain

23:39

roughly 24% of the time give or take.

23:43

I think he's end up optimal. You

23:45

play this slate like I said a thousand times. I

23:47

think he ends up optimal as the captain more often

23:49

than that number. So I plan on and this is

23:51

going to be a shocker Kyle being overweight Christian McCaffrey

23:54

at captain. I know play the best plays am

23:56

I right? It just

23:58

makes so much sense to me because because he's

24:01

proof, I think, in either game script

24:03

where, yes, if they fall behind, it's

24:06

not ideal, but he's gonna be out there on passing

24:08

downs, he's gonna get work from Brock Prote in the

24:10

passing game, or if you think that the Niners actually

24:12

do win this game, he

24:14

can have a path for 100 rushing yards and two

24:16

scores, obviously. So, yeah, it's me, Christian McCaffrey, you don't

24:18

overthink it. I think both from

24:20

a tournament perspective and cash games, at

24:23

Captain, I love him, and if you are playing cash

24:25

games, he is absolutely 100% a lock. Kansas

24:30

City ranks 28th in EPA per rush, so

24:32

the matchup says you can play him, everything

24:34

about Christian McCaffrey says you can play him,

24:36

and the way that the 49ers actually run

24:38

their offense is a lot of 21 and 22 personnel. Look,

24:41

so you're getting two running backs on the field, and

24:43

that second running back is Kyle Juszczyk. So,

24:47

it's a different type of look from

24:50

what the Kansas City defense has looked at this

24:52

year. The one thing I will say is

24:55

that they've limited big plays, and so that's why I

24:57

think kind of the hardest thing is

25:00

looking at McCaffrey, you don't really have to worry, the

25:03

big plays are going to come, the

25:05

volume's also on his side, so you kind of get

25:08

this combination of, he's obviously

25:10

had the best odds to get a

25:12

touchdown, he's gonna see 15 plus touches

25:14

minimum, and then on top of that, you're

25:17

gonna kind of see him involved in the screen

25:19

game, and that's another place

25:21

where Kansas City's kind of weak. So, I'm

25:24

with you. Whatever a roster percentage is show, I

25:27

will be above that, and I

25:29

think captain-wise, I think he's gonna land

25:31

somewhere at 25%, but I think he should be

25:33

like 35%. Yeah, I agree, and

25:35

that's what I was saying. If you are gonna play a 150 set or

25:37

a 20 max set, and

25:40

you wanna get well over weight, get yourself

25:42

40% McCaffrey captain, something like that, you'll have

25:44

leverage on the field as far as how

25:46

often you're playing at captain versus how often

25:48

we think the field is gonna play him,

25:50

if that makes sense. What

25:53

also McCaffrey does is, it

25:57

forces the chief's defense to... kind

26:00

of look at this team

26:02

and go, well, okay, if I can stop

26:04

Christian McCaffrey, then I can limit it. But

26:06

the problem is Brock Purdy has

26:09

slayed all year in the intermediate and deep layers

26:11

of the field. So play action pass. I'm giving some

26:13

football takes here, but like that

26:15

is where Brock Purdy has been good. And obviously you've

26:18

seen some really, really bad weeks. Like,

26:20

listen, there are stats out there that show here's

26:22

where Brock Purdy could fail this week. He's had

26:24

some terrible games, especially against Baltimore that

26:27

you saw. And then he's

26:29

also had some other games where he's just been on fire.

26:32

He has been not just a

26:34

good deep ball passer. I went all the way

26:36

back to 2006 bets. It was a lot of

26:38

scrolling, a lot of spreadsheets. He had

26:40

the highest deep ball completion percentage of

26:42

any quarterback in the pro football

26:44

focus era. So like last 25

26:46

years or so, he's

26:49

been awesome. And I think that

26:51

combination of Christian McCaffrey, running the ball,

26:54

open up play action and the intermediate

26:56

to deep layer of the field is

26:59

where I think they can have success. So there's

27:01

a reason 49ers are still favored.

27:03

There's a reason they're number one in the league and

27:05

EPA per play. And it's this kind

27:07

of this combination. So Brock Purdy is

27:09

not somebody that I'm really excited about

27:11

and captain because I usually lean into,

27:14

you know, the wide receivers that have

27:16

a PPR ceiling or in this case,

27:18

Christian McCaffrey. But I think Brock

27:21

Purdy might be pooped on a little too much

27:23

this week. And I'm interested in coming

27:25

ahead of the field. Yeah, I think he's a really

27:27

good flex play as leverage. I don't think I'm gonna

27:29

get there at captain. Like you said, there's just, there's

27:31

so many guys on the slate that can beat him at captain.

27:34

You think about Mahomes on the other

27:36

side, you think about both running backs

27:38

and then all the passengers, Kelsey, Kittle,

27:41

Ayuk, Rishi Rice, Diba, like those

27:43

guys could all easily beat Purdy

27:45

when you think about a ceiling performance. So I'm

27:47

not gonna get there at captain. But in flex,

27:49

I do think he'll be rostered less often than

27:51

he is optimal. When you think about, again,

27:54

especially in large field, if you're playing lower stakes stuff,

27:56

people know the name of homes if they're only kind

27:59

of playing just this one showdown slate because I want

28:01

to have some skin in the game. Like people

28:03

are flicking Mahomes instead of Brock Purdy because they

28:05

know Mahomes. But on top of that, like it

28:08

just makes so much sense. If you want to flip

28:10

the narrative that's out there, that Purdy is, I think

28:12

everyone assumes Purdy is definitely going to struggle. I think

28:14

people assume it's going to be ultra heavy, run heavy

28:17

game script. I think that's what they want to do

28:19

San Francisco, but we've seen just

28:21

so much efficiency from this offense that, you

28:23

know, or the last two games they've played,

28:25

it has not looked pretty. But

28:28

if you zoom out, this is a quarterback

28:30

we've been excited to play all year long. Right. So I want

28:32

to have that longer term mindset of not just zooming in on

28:34

the last couple of weeks, but playing

28:36

him probably a little bit more than the field at flex.

28:39

And if you are going to play him to me, when

28:41

you do play him in those scenarios, you stack him

28:43

with one of his pass catchers or McCaffrey in those San

28:45

Francisco heavy builds at captain. Yes.

28:48

Like, I mean, if you have builds where

28:51

you have Ayuk or Deebo as captain,

28:53

then obviously you want to bring Purdy alongside with

28:55

him. I like builds where I'm

28:57

building a game script where the

28:59

chiefs get a lead early or

29:01

even a defensive touchdown early. So you can

29:03

use Pacheco, you know, as captain, or you

29:05

can use, you

29:08

know, Pacheco as a flex or the Kansas City defense in the

29:10

flex, and then you're playing Ayuk, you're playing

29:12

Deebo in the captain role, and then you're having

29:14

Purdy saying he's got to get there in the

29:16

second half and the volumes kind of increased on

29:18

his side. So that's the game kind

29:20

of flow that Betts and I always talk about. I was like,

29:22

you have to write a story, run

29:25

with it, and you're not going to get it perfect, but

29:28

at least you're saying, Hey, I can see volume

29:30

on his side and efficiency's clearly been on his

29:32

side for most of the year. So, so

29:34

far, it seems like we're very pro 49ers. Um,

29:38

you know, pro Chris McCaffrey as captain, Purdy

29:41

in the flex we're good with. Maybe a little

29:43

overweight. Where do you want to go next? Uh,

29:46

let's keep just going with the San Francisco side of

29:48

them. We'll talk Casey after this. Um,

29:52

all right. Good. Good. You're, you're

29:54

in charge, Kyle. I'm just a guy you

29:56

go. I'm the

29:58

captain now. Okay. So let's sort out. Debo

30:00

and I you because I all year

30:02

we've kind of been Choosing

30:05

which one is it and what week is it

30:07

and what matchup is it? Because that's kind of

30:09

how Kyle Shanahan rolls like oh This is a

30:11

Debo week and he schemes it, you know for

30:13

him or one of the players is out So

30:15

it's a kiddo week I've

30:18

gone back and forth. I started this week saying all

30:20

this is going to be a Debo week because You

30:22

know you just look at how he's been used He's number

30:25

one among all wide receivers in the playoffs in yards per

30:27

out run When they were in the Super

30:29

Bowl a couple years ago against his team. He had 12 opportunities.

30:31

He gets those rushing attacks and

30:35

I like him in that sense I

30:37

also like that he is leverage on CMC because

30:40

he has the rushing role and

30:42

we've seen games Like I had a big week

30:44

where I was really heavy on Debo and he

30:46

had an early rushing touchdown and It

30:49

kind of negated some of CMC. So

30:51

I like Debo is leverage But

30:54

at 9200 he's more expensive than I uke. So

30:56

how do you feel about Debo? Yeah He's really

30:58

interesting on the slate when you talk about the

31:00

price because as much as we love

31:02

Christian McCaffrey and I'm gonna play a ton Of lineups,

31:05

you know and just try to kind of have

31:07

my spots where I pick and choose where I want leverage Getting

31:10

a little bit overweight the feeling you don't have to

31:13

get a ton of Debo in your captain spot to

31:15

get some leverage On the field this week. It's really

31:17

tough to fit him if you want to play my

31:20

homes and Purdy and McCaffrey

31:22

right like I think he's just gonna get lost in the

31:24

shuffle because of pricing I mean you think about where these

31:26

guys are priced talking about their flex Their

31:29

flex salary like Debo at

31:31

9200. I can easily see people saying you know

31:33

what? I don't want to pay that Maybe

31:35

I dropped down to Brandon I uke if I want exposure here or

31:37

I don't want to pay that for I uke

31:39

I know he's gonna go against luxurious need I'll get my

31:41

San Francisco exposure with kiddo and I'll just save the salary

31:44

Which he has 6400 so I do think he is a

31:47

good value But when the roster percentage is going to follow

31:49

that which I do think it will with kiddo I

31:51

think he's a decent fade just because

31:54

you know in his range of outcomes He

31:56

can give you 20 which if you're playing him, that's what you're hoping

31:58

for but if you fade him We know

32:00

he's very capable of giving you two to five drafting

32:03

points any time he steps on the field Not

32:05

to mention and this is kind of a doubt plate and I

32:07

don't think it's a huge issue But it is worth pointing out.

32:09

He has been on the injury report with a toe injury the

32:11

last couple of weeks So

32:13

just when the when the roster percentage follows

32:15

a guy like kiddo I want

32:17

to look at his teammates and just say I'll play those

32:20

other guys and get massive leverage on him So that's why

32:22

I'm attacking the San Francisco pass catchers and

32:24

I mentioned last week and I'm still kind of stuck with it

32:26

I think it is a big debo spot to

32:28

me. He's just so unique in how they can use

32:31

him He's the chess piece that Kyle Shanahan can use

32:33

to win this game in my opinion So I love

32:36

debo this week at captain He's gonna be a guy that I

32:38

plan to get a little bit overweight and I mentioned you don't

32:40

have to do a ton Like if you give yourself 12%

32:43

13% captain debo exposure You're

32:46

gonna have leverage on the field because he's easily gonna

32:48

get squeezed here in the spot If

32:51

you're playing debo does that cause you

32:54

to play less McCaffrey in

32:56

the flex in those lineups? Probably

32:58

but to be honest, I haven't really

33:00

built yet So I don't know what kind of leaves

33:02

you salary wise because if you're playing debo captain You

33:04

obviously want purdy and

33:06

then if you play him see like you're you're really

33:08

going dump your diving So to me, it's more of

33:11

a I think a leverage play on CMC than

33:13

anything else. I Like

33:15

I uke as another captain

33:17

spot these 8800 Enrolls

33:21

where they're having to come back and you're getting these

33:23

massive yards like I Uke

33:25

leads this slate in route percentage in air yards.

33:27

We can't forget that like the Yards

33:30

per outrun number he put up this year were

33:32

bananas and against man coverage He

33:35

was 3.8 yards per out run. I

33:37

mean, that's like off the charts kind of stuff So he's

33:39

been awesome and I think the

33:41

narrative that we're seeing in the media is Lagerious

33:44

need was an all-pro player and He

33:47

shut down people look at all these stats against wide

33:49

receiver ones I get that the thing

33:51

in DFS is when you do that you end

33:53

up double counting against a player And

33:56

so you kind of have to look at roster percentages

33:58

and say okay is the field doing this? And

34:00

people are playing IYUK, right? This isn't like,

34:02

oh, well we're fading in because of the matchup. So in

34:06

game scripts where they're coming back, I feel like he's a

34:08

priority flex to me. And he's

34:10

worth a captain spot if you want to go

34:12

that route where you're playing

34:14

him, you're playing Purdy in

34:17

the flex. And you're also at least adding

34:20

another pass catcher to just say like the way

34:22

this offense gets there is multiple touchdowns

34:24

through the air with Brock Purdy. So I

34:26

like IYUK a lot. I feel like I wanted to come

34:28

in and say, well, I'm gonna pick one or the other.

34:31

But Deebo to me is more

34:33

of like a game wrecker than like

34:35

he correlates well with everybody else. So he's kind of

34:37

one of those guys that ends up stealing a lot

34:40

of the valuable points away from

34:42

IYUK. So I don't think I'll be

34:44

playing those two together. No, I don't think I would

34:46

either, especially at their salaries. It's a little cost prohibitive

34:48

in some ways. And like you said, when

34:51

you do play a certain guy captain, you're

34:54

correlating it and you're saying, if Deebo has a

34:56

ceiling game where he is the optimal captain, certainly

34:58

IYUK is not having a ceiling game as well,

35:01

right? We've seen that week after week with

35:03

this offense. It's kind of a one guy or

35:05

the other. And sometimes with how

35:07

much Christian McEnally is used, it's one of the pass

35:09

catchers in CMC kind of to get there and no

35:11

one else does. And that's kind of where I wanna

35:13

lean with Deebo. So I'm with you in

35:15

that front. And I think with IYUK too, he's

35:18

a guy that, you know, it's kind

35:20

of a nuanced conversation because I agree the matchup's

35:23

tough. I personally, we didn't take this as an

35:25

official prop. I personally took under 63 and a

35:27

half yards. I do think it is gonna be

35:29

kind of tough sledding, but that's

35:31

a median outcome that I care about. If I'm

35:33

playing a captain, I don't care

35:35

about the 80 times he fails. I want the 20% of

35:37

the time that he is the dude. So again, you have

35:39

to think about it that way, not just the median outcome.

35:41

And he has absolutely on this slate, he

35:43

has a ceiling that's worth chasing. All

35:46

right, I'll mention Juwan Jennings and we'll finish up with

35:49

some of the other guys on their side, but Juwan

35:51

Jennings, it's just

35:53

hard. They just don't run through wide receiver sets a lot. He

35:55

has fewer than two DK points in

35:57

nine of his last 12 games. And

35:59

so, So I just don't

36:02

see him being a priority play at all for

36:04

me. I looked this up. He has worse touchdown

36:06

odds than any of the Kansas City wide receivers

36:08

who are way cheaper than him. So

36:10

it just, to me, it's just too expensive at 4K. So

36:13

if he beats you. I

36:16

didn't say that I wouldn't, I

36:18

would play every single player. I

36:21

don't think I'm gonna play. I will. Straight up. I

36:25

will only play him, like I said, in 49ers, like,

36:27

okay, we gotta come back. They're

36:29

down two or three touchdowns and he ends up with

36:31

a couple of catches, but I just don't see, I

36:33

just, that's way too expensive. Yep, definitely. When you can

36:35

play MVS at 3K. That's the guy

36:37

you need. And

36:39

then we mentioned Kittle. We

36:42

will probably come in a little underweight. We'll

36:44

talk about him more. Let's talk about defense

36:46

and kicker because, you know, showdown, we get

36:48

to. San Francisco's defense,

36:50

man, the last two

36:52

games in the playoffs have not been good.

36:55

Like some negative EPA per play performances against

36:57

Green Bay and then Detroit. They

37:00

were really, really bad. Like they gave it some

37:02

really big play. Steve Wilkes, their defense coordinator came

37:04

out and there was an article in ESPN

37:06

that was really, really good behind the scenes saying like he

37:09

ripped them. Like he destroyed them when they watched the

37:11

film and said, like you gave up all of these

37:13

and so they vowed, all right, we're gonna give a

37:15

bigger effort. All right, narrative stuff

37:17

aside, is San

37:19

Francisco's defense kind of irrelevant? I mean,

37:21

they're $4,400. That's a thousand dollars more

37:23

than KC. I'm finding myself not

37:26

wanting to use them a ton. I mean, it's

37:28

just, it's lineup dependent. And this is what we always talk about.

37:30

You tell yourself a story with the lineup you build. And

37:33

if you're playing McCaffrey or captain and

37:36

you want to play Purdy and you want to say they

37:38

control this game and you want to do a four, two,

37:40

or a five, one San Francisco build, throwing

37:42

them in and saying they control the clock. They

37:44

have a, you know, a couple of turnovers. They

37:47

get a couple of sacks, whatever. And

37:49

they're the flex that you need. And they,

37:51

any of these defense, truthfully, I'm kind of a

37:54

conversation similar with KC and San Francisco, just

37:56

depending on how you build. But like at

37:58

these prices, would you be surprised if. eight

38:01

points from one of these defenses beats MBS

38:04

or Justin Watson or Noah

38:06

Gray or CEH I

38:08

would not be shocked at all so I actually

38:10

kind of like them on this slate because and

38:13

we'll talk about how you build certain

38:15

scenarios but I like the under in this game and

38:17

to me if the under is hitting I think

38:20

there's a somewhat decent chance one of these guys one of

38:22

these defenses can end up in the flex I'm

38:25

just finding combinations where I get in you

38:28

know either super cheap guy like

38:30

you know Ritchie James or somebody or CEH

38:33

that affords me to get another stud as

38:35

opposed to it's just there's this four

38:37

to six K range that

38:39

is really hard to figure out and showdown because normally we'd

38:41

be like alright well I have this much salary left over

38:44

I need to play

38:46

this guy but like between them the kickers

38:49

George Kittle those kind of guys in there

38:51

I'm just like I don't love their projections

38:54

so I'm finding that I don't love San Francisco's defense

38:56

there were 26 in pressure rate which is not

38:59

what you would think with Nick Bosa and company but

39:02

their front is not as imposing as you

39:04

would think Kansas City has been really good

39:07

you remember that Super Bowl couple years ago against Tampa Bay

39:09

where it's like oh Patrick Holmes is under pressure they've

39:12

really like changed course of like how they're

39:14

protecting the homes and the type

39:16

of plays they're not like these long developing

39:18

plays where he's running around or trying to

39:20

throw it deep so a lot of

39:23

these short area stuff they're just not getting the sack

39:25

totals that you would think and

39:27

so I just think I'll be underweight on

39:29

San Francisco's defense now in builds where you're

39:31

playing McCaffrey is captain it correlates

39:34

super well you can play San Francisco defense that makes a

39:36

ton of sense but Jake

39:39

Moody shocks

39:41

that he's more expensive than Harrison Booker

39:44

but a 5200 he's kind of just a

39:46

flex play if this game hits the under

39:48

but like a low-end one I'm not like

39:50

super excited yeah I pretty much echo what

39:53

you said I think both kickers are in

39:55

play especially with under game scripts it's just

39:58

really tough from a salary standpoint And

40:00

that's gonna keep the Ross percentage in check. So this is one

40:02

way that you can get unique is one of these kickers but

40:06

like at five fifty two hundred and five K It's

40:09

it's almost like it feels dirty But

40:12

the field is gonna feel that way right and like I said

40:14

just if you scroll the Salaries here

40:16

and you look at like who's down in that that

40:19

range like as soon as you drop below 5k It's

40:22

Juan Jennings. It's MVS. It's Elijah Mitchell

40:25

if those guys are not what you need and

40:27

the combination is like Kyle

40:29

use check in a defense or you know a

40:31

kicker in Kyle's use check or whoever that's

40:33

cheaper than that That to me

40:35

is really interesting and just trying to get off

40:38

these insanely fragile plays that are in that like

40:40

2k to 3k range Kind

40:43

of like butt cur What'd

40:45

you say it's so scared? Georgia

40:49

Tech man, here's some butt cur Okay,

40:52

let's go to Kansas City side start off

40:54

with my homes work our way down and then Beth and

40:56

I have just we Went through the same side. We'll go

40:58

to Kansas City side and then we'll also kind of wrap

41:01

it up and say here's some game flows Here's

41:03

will be overweight on captains and flex and

41:06

then we got a question where bets can reveal

41:08

who's gonna Hopefully not beat

41:10

him on the site. So talk

41:12

to me about my homes Yeah, he's

41:15

another guy that I don't think I'm gonna play at

41:18

captain right now kind of across different

41:20

industry projections I'm seeing anywhere from like 9

41:22

to 12 percent a captain. I

41:26

Don't know man, this is a guy that certainly

41:28

any week could have a ceiling performance. So I'm

41:30

not saying it can't happen It's just you

41:32

look at the game logs and you look at how this offense

41:34

is operated. It really hasn't been there from

41:36

my homes He has not hit

41:38

21 DK points since week seven. He's

41:41

been like a guy to me

41:43

that profiles as more likely to be

41:45

in the flex than the

41:47

captain spot It

41:50

just I think unlikely to hit the 300 yard bonus

41:53

Unlikely to throw for three touchdowns, which is crazy to say

41:55

with a guy like my homeless But he just has thrown

41:57

one or two almost every game, you know, it's

41:59

not a Lamar where you he can break the slate with

42:01

his legs. So I just, I don't see a

42:03

huge ceiling performance for me personally to have him

42:05

there. So I will have no captain Mahomes, but

42:07

I will have him in flex, especially if I'm

42:09

playing someone like, you know, Kelsey

42:11

or Rashid Rice. That's

42:14

kind of where I'm at too. It's just, you're

42:17

not getting the massive plays. You're

42:19

getting an accumulator who ends up

42:21

with, you know, 265 yards and you look up and

42:23

you go, how did he get to 265 yards? Like

42:26

the longest play felt like it was like 25 yards. And

42:29

that's kind of how you have to do things against

42:32

the San Francisco defense. Like they run a lot

42:34

of cover for, which is

42:36

quarters coverage. And for those

42:38

at home, basically you end up having to do a

42:40

lot of underneath stuff. You get out routes, like underneath

42:42

option routes, mesh routes, and that's

42:44

kind of where Rashid Rice and Kelsey

42:47

have been living. That's why you've seen a clear

42:49

distinction between, there's two dudes and

42:52

everybody else in this offense. So

42:55

it's easy for me to paint a story

42:57

where Patrick Mahomes is essential in

42:59

the flex and Rashid Rice or Kelsey are

43:01

what you need in the captain's spot. And

43:03

you just kind of, you know, start

43:05

off with that stack and you look at this team, you're

43:09

just not seeing these explosive, like

43:11

three touchdown games. Now I

43:14

say all that to say, I kind

43:16

of want to make builds where he goes off, just

43:19

to like stick it to myself. Just because

43:21

you know, you know, he lies like, right? Yes,

43:24

of course he can. So

43:27

Mahomes is one of those players that I think only

43:29

makes sense to me if I'm flexing. Now

43:32

I read you the lineup from last year. No

43:34

one, I mean, the winning lineup did not have

43:37

Mahomes stacked anybody but Jody Fortson. So what do

43:39

I know? Hey man, this

43:42

could be another slate where that happens. It's

43:44

actually really interesting when you think about kind of when these

43:47

guys end up in the optimal lineup and kind

43:49

of how often they're paired with their teammates. But

43:52

KC is like the perfect example of an

43:54

offense where that can

43:57

happen where, you know, if Kelsey has five

43:59

or 50. And Rashi Rice has like 6 for

44:01

60. That might not be enough

44:03

to land in the optimal, but like Mahomes still

44:05

throws a couple passes to MBS, one to Watson,

44:07

one to Blake Bell, or, you know, and Pacheco

44:09

out of the backfield. And like he just kind

44:11

of accumulates 250 and 2. And

44:15

it's not the captain, but he's in the flex.

44:17

Like it certainly can happen. These offenses where it's

44:19

so spread out, that's when the quarterback is capable

44:22

of landing in the flex without a teammate. How

44:25

often does it happen? I don't

44:27

think very, but it certainly can, as we saw last

44:29

year. Yeah, last year

44:31

was the Skymore and the what, Kedarius Tony

44:33

short little bunny touchdowns that

44:36

got there. So moving down with

44:38

the Chiefs, let's talk about Pacheco. Kansas

44:41

City runs a lot of outside

44:43

zone stuff. And you look

44:46

at the matchup and season long stuff will say, wow, San

44:48

Francisco's a defense you don't want to run against. And the

44:50

playoffs, they have been destroyed. Green Bay, 111

44:53

rushing yards in the division round. And then

44:55

the NFC title game, Detroit, controlled that game.

44:57

They probably should have won that game from

44:59

a game flow perspective, 182

45:02

yards against them. So

45:04

I think Pacheco at 8K is appropriately

45:07

priced. And I like him a

45:09

lot as a flex play. In

45:11

wins this year in Chiefs wins 94 total

45:13

yards in losses 66. So in

45:15

game scripts where the Chiefs are winning, makes

45:18

a ton of sense to include him in the flex. How

45:20

do you feel about him as a captain? I

45:23

think he's interesting just in the event that,

45:27

the public is so right, right? If people really think Mahomes

45:29

and the Chiefs should be favored here and they do. In

45:32

the under. In the under hits and maybe 100 scrimmage

45:34

yards and a touchdown is really all you need. And

45:36

the game is kind of a snooze fest, which would

45:38

really stink for Super Bowl parties. Would

45:41

be good for your captain, Pacheco lineups. I

45:44

think you should be in your pool as a captain.

45:46

We've seen games, remember like, I think it was the

45:48

Jets game halfway through the year. He

45:50

was an awesome showdown play on that slate as

45:52

leverage off of his teammates. I could

45:54

see a similar situation here where it's like, okay,

45:56

you know, the field is trying to jam in

45:58

McCaffrey. I think. people are really excited

46:01

to play Trampus Kelsey. We

46:03

talked about the San Francisco guys. I could easily

46:05

see Pacheco at captain, really get

46:08

deflated in roster percentage at captain, especially in small

46:10

field stuff. He can come in at six,

46:12

seven percent. And to me on this

46:14

slate, that's really good leverage, I think. Yeah,

46:17

I can't see him getting above 10%. Obviously

46:21

McCaffrey, we go through the captains and

46:24

go, okay, who's gonna be popular? Probably

46:26

gonna be McCaffrey, one. Mahomes

46:28

or Kelsey is gonna be two or three. And

46:30

then from there, you're looking at, who is

46:32

it gonna be next? Like maybe Rice or Ayuk. Purdy's

46:35

probably gonna be further down than he should be,

46:38

just because people don't wanna play him. But Pacheco

46:42

is gonna end up, I don't know, six,

46:44

seventh, eighth on the list? Yeah,

46:46

probably. So

46:49

I think there's enough there that, in certain

46:51

games, it makes sense. So we

46:53

like Pacheco, we like him as a flex play

46:55

in certain, the opportunities are there. CH

46:59

is only $1,200. And

47:01

I feel like CH is one of

47:03

those players that's lost me money in DFS over

47:05

the years, lost you money in DFS over the

47:07

years, I think I talked about him as a

47:09

late round best ball pick this year. I

47:14

wanted to just write him off, man. Just like, who

47:17

cares? But at $1,200, if he got

47:19

20 scrimmage yards and

47:22

maybe a reception, maybe

47:24

that's fine for $1,200. Could

47:27

be, yeah, it's hard to say, right, with these kind

47:29

of fringy guys. It just depends on

47:31

what the other players do. And like I

47:34

was kind of mentioning that example of like, if Kelsey gives

47:36

you five for 50 and Rashid Rice is fine, but not

47:38

great. And like, it's the combination

47:40

of the higher priced guys and like

47:42

Stars and Scrubs builds that is optimal,

47:45

it certainly can work. So he should be in your player pool.

47:48

I will say seeing him get pushed up somewhere

47:50

around 20% would

47:52

not be surprising. And to me, that

47:54

feels a little rich. I

47:56

don't know if he's going to be like 12% or 13%. I'd

47:59

say, hey, let's play that. But like

48:01

20% for a guy who literally could come out

48:03

and give you a point Feels

48:05

like somewhat of a decent fade to a guy

48:07

that I probably will try to come in underweight

48:11

Yeah, he had eight touches against Miami, but remember they

48:13

were ahead It was a game in the cold like

48:15

it made a lot of sense and then he had

48:17

a 25 yard run against the bills So

48:20

like you if you're just box score watching you can

48:22

look at like, okay Well his last four games have

48:25

been two point four four points two point six two

48:27

points Like if you got four points from a $1,200

48:30

player in showdown that could work out

48:32

theoretically if the game hits the under So

48:34

that's the only way I'm really using CH

48:36

is like, okay, it hits the under

48:39

it's a gross game environment They're running out the clock

48:41

he gets instead of getting like two

48:43

carries He ends up getting four carries and

48:46

maybe a reception and that works But the

48:48

Ross percentage is a bit high for a player

48:50

that you know doesn't have a ceiling I mean,

48:52

yes, he could fall in the end zone, but

48:55

Don't really like him too much let's

48:57

move on to the wide receivers because I

49:00

think sorting out these guys behind Rishi rice

49:02

is the biggest

49:04

question mark and the biggest

49:06

roulette of this so Rishi

49:08

rice I Can't

49:11

say anything negative about him and I don't want

49:13

to say anything negative since week 12. He's averaging

49:15

9.3 targets 86

49:18

receiving yards per game He's only 7,600. So

49:20

he's Kind

49:23

of cheap for a wide receiver one

49:25

for a team. I know Kelsey is Marketed

49:27

that way. I know that he's priced that way. But

49:29

like would you say Rishi rice

49:31

is the wide receiver one on this team? I

49:33

know the playoffs is different. But like 70s 100

49:35

is cheap. Yeah, he's super interesting to me I

49:37

actually really like him and I plan to be

49:40

overweight both flex and captain on

49:42

Rishi rice in this spot And there's a

49:44

couple reasons why one is he's obviously direct

49:46

leverage off of Travis Kelsey Who I think is

49:48

gonna be a little bit more popular The

49:50

other thing is his price makes a lot of

49:52

stuff work really well where if you do play

49:54

him at captain You know, he's not the McCaffrey

49:56

level salary. He's not the Mahomes level salary that

49:58

kind of gets cost prohibitive So you can

50:00

build some of these more balanced builds, which helps

50:03

you get off of the fragile guys

50:05

like CEH or MBS or

50:07

whoever so I love him for those two reasons,

50:09

but we just look at kind of how he's

50:11

operated I know the last couple weeks. It's been

50:13

like playoff. Kelsey has come back and he's been

50:15

awesome But if you zoom

50:17

out on the entire year, especially after week 12

50:19

when he kind of became a full Route

50:22

rate player Rishi rice has led the

50:25

duo of him and Kelsey in, you know Target share

50:27

first read share all that sort of stuff and it's

50:29

like if the field's just gonna overreact to kind of

50:31

the last Two games when we have and it's

50:34

still a small sample, but we have you know eight

50:36

nine ten games on what has happened with

50:38

this offense and No one's gonna

50:40

play in the captain like Rishi rice to me is one

50:42

of the better leverage plays on the slate Especially

50:45

if you think the Chiefs fall behind here and

50:47

Mahomes does have to increase that pass rate and throw a

50:50

ton So I'm very in on Rishi rice on the slate

50:53

Yeah, he's just he's been awesome against

50:55

zone coverage this year Top

50:57

four in yards per out run so

51:00

That's what I like to see in a wide

51:02

receiver and like I like to see against a

51:04

scheme where you have to do those short Area

51:06

things and then he has the yak ability that

51:09

he can actually do something after the catch So he's he's

51:12

just been awesome, man. I will say I

51:14

completely whiffed on him as A

51:16

prospect and how he would be used because

51:19

he wasn't used the exact same way in

51:21

college. So Yeah,

51:23

I think he's a player that I will be at

51:25

least there at flex and then in captain I will

51:27

probably have a couple of lineups where you

51:30

know, you stack them with Mahomes and you move on from there MVS

51:33

is the wide receiver to the last

51:35

two weeks in route participation MVS

51:38

also used up all of his good, you

51:40

know good mojo So

51:42

I don't know man this

51:45

roster percentage is 16% It's

51:48

fine But I don't

51:50

I don't I just feel like

51:52

MBS I already took the under on his receiving yards last

51:54

week. Oh Man,

51:56

Kyle, what was what was the

51:59

MBS playoff MBS? like and

52:01

it's the meme crying

52:03

and just how special it was when you remember these last

52:05

couple of weeks yeah

52:07

man it's he's the exact type of archetype where

52:09

if he's popular I'll

52:12

fade him and hope for the best if he's not popular

52:14

you lean into the fact that he's gonna be on the field the

52:17

most of all the other dudes like speaking about

52:20

like Kedarius Tony and Justin Watson

52:22

and Richie James and

52:24

you just hope for the best right like it's hard to

52:26

give analysis on him because we know the story at 3k

52:30

I think the price is fair relative to the other guys

52:32

16% I'll be honest doesn't

52:34

feel like a ton so

52:36

I get it and if you do want to

52:38

include them in your lineups I think it's totally

52:41

fine just understand kind of what you're hoping for

52:43

and you're hoping for one or two catches one

52:45

of them is a long play and hopefully falls in the

52:47

end zone would be like you know

52:49

the 90th percentile outcome yeah

52:52

I like Justin Watson in builds

52:55

where they're coming back so

52:57

at 2400 he has the

53:00

second highest area shared on this slate which is a

53:02

really fun fact that might not mean anything if

53:05

they're ahead so you

53:07

know 26% area chairs behind only

53:09

I uke he's

53:12

fine too but I he's not one of those

53:14

play this game's hitting the under I'm not probably

53:16

playing Justin Watson and

53:19

then I just it's so hard because Kedarius

53:22

Tony been on his

53:24

little rants you know talking trash like dude Super Bowl

53:26

why are you why are you doing this right now

53:29

and any reason well we'll see

53:31

if he's gonna play and then

53:34

you know Skymore injury

53:36

report Richie James 13 routes

53:38

the last two weeks tell

53:41

me about the rest of these jabronis I didn't mention Nicole

53:43

Hardman who sometimes should not see

53:46

the field yeah it's these guys are just

53:48

so thin where you're literally hoping that you

53:50

catch fire and get lucky with a catch

53:52

or two that happens to go for a

53:54

good chunk of yards I

53:57

think if you are gonna look for one guy as leverage

53:59

on off the MBS, it's Justin Watson. If

54:02

you're looking for like, man, I really hope they just

54:04

scheme him another touch or two close to the goal

54:06

line. I think it's Michael Harmon,

54:08

but truthfully, I don't know who he's been to last week.

54:10

So these are all guys that if you're running a 150

54:12

set, especially for really large field stuff,

54:15

you want them in your pool just in the event that it happens. But

54:18

man, there's nothing positive really you can say about

54:20

any of these guys. I

54:24

have a Richie James, I

54:26

won't even call it a feeling, but at

54:29

$400, it

54:31

makes things, makes sense. And he is the type

54:33

of player in his role is that

54:35

he can kind of replace whatever they're doing with

54:37

Tony, if they don't trust him, Hardman if they

54:39

don't trust him as a short area slot guy.

54:41

The same way that Sky Moore was supposed to

54:43

do that too. So I'm just

54:45

saying right now, kind of like Richie James

54:47

as a flex play, just because of

54:50

the salary that he opens up as the cheapest, but I

54:52

mean, it's a complete dart. I

54:54

mean, you mentioned too, Judy Horton was in the lineup last

54:56

year, like even if Richie

54:58

James, excuse me, air balls, the

55:02

combination of like the salary savings plus what you can get

55:04

to in your lineup might make him

55:06

optimal. So you need to think about it that way too. Whereas

55:08

like MBS, Justin Watson, those

55:11

guys kind of have to do something at their

55:13

salary, right, to end up optimal, same with CEH.

55:15

So I think it makes a ton of sense.

55:17

And actually I'm seeing like 4%, 6%

55:19

somewhere in there. So like

55:22

in a large field, yeah, why not? I

55:25

mean, I'm seeing some of them even lower, but the

55:28

best part about Richie James is that if

55:30

he fails, you can say, I didn't even need it.

55:32

You know, I was just born dollars. And I think

55:34

he'll be on partner too, right? So

55:37

you might get a little, I mean,

55:39

it doesn't happen often, but if it happens, like he's in your

55:41

lineup. Yeah, and

55:43

you just correlate him with the DST, get that

55:45

double TV, the Jeko hit the under. I

55:48

mean, things are looking up. All

55:50

right, I'll say it out loud then just

55:52

so, put it out there in the atmosphere.

55:54

Pacheco captain with the

55:56

Richie James, Kansas

55:59

City, DST. defense brought

56:02

along. Okay, so you got three there.

56:05

You got my homes, McCaffrey,

56:08

and then however else you finish out the lineup.

56:11

That's up to you. That's just the, hey, I said it, so if it

56:13

happens, I get to take credit. There

56:15

you go. All right, we gotta

56:18

move to Kelsey, and then we have to talk about

56:20

Noah Gray, which, man, a

56:22

lot higher roster percentage than I thought, but

56:25

he's cheap. So Travis Kelsey is expensive,

56:29

right? $10,200 on DK. The

56:34

target share has been awesome, and San Francisco

56:36

has kind of been leaky since week 11

56:38

against Titan position. 24th in schedule adjusted, fantasy

56:40

points allowed from week 11 on in the

56:42

regular season, and Sam LaPorta

56:45

saw 13 targets in the

56:47

NFC title game. So

56:51

Travis Kelsey is a player that I

56:53

personally have always

56:55

gotten wrong in all formats

56:57

of fantasy. Let's just be honest. Except

57:00

for, in best ball, I think there was

57:02

times where I said, I'm not gonna pay this price, I'm

57:05

not gonna, and I felt good. In

57:07

showdown, he is a killer, because if you

57:10

don't have Kelsey, you're done.

57:12

I had him, and I was

57:14

overweight him in the AFC title

57:16

game, and I felt great about that, because he balled

57:18

out. Tell

57:21

me what to do, Bets,

57:23

because Kelsey's so hard. I mean, you know

57:25

what you're getting into, right? If you faith him,

57:27

you know what he can do to you, and it is 100 yards

57:29

and two touchdowns, then you're done. I

57:32

will say, my strategy is to be

57:34

underweight the field. I'm not saying that's what everyone

57:36

should do. I will be

57:38

terrified from start to finish, but

57:40

when I think about not

57:43

just can he be the optimal captain, the answer is obviously

57:45

yes, but at his salary, he's

57:47

the third most expensive player on

57:49

the slate, right? He has to be, not just, he can't

57:51

just give you five or 50. He needs to find the

57:53

end zone, he needs to have a really good game. Obviously,

57:56

he can do that, but if I'm the Niners, man,

57:58

how am I winning this game? I am NOT

58:00

letting Travis Kelce beat me. That's how

58:02

I would scheme it and I think that they will you've got a Really

58:05

good defense over the middle of the field Specifically

58:07

where Kelce runs a ton of those routes So

58:11

again, it's a scary fade. But again, this is

58:13

all about if you win this kind of one

58:17

If your takes hit kind of in one situation you

58:19

get paid off in a massive way That's how I

58:21

plan to approach it But I mean you can't argue

58:23

he's been great the last couple of weeks and it's

58:25

the playoffs and Mahomes loves him So I totally get

58:27

it and you know, I'm gonna play a ton of

58:30

lineups I'll have a little bit of Kelsey captain, but

58:32

my overall stance is I plan to be underweight the

58:34

field If he

58:36

ends up being the second most popular captain, then

58:39

I will probably be underweight, but that is a

58:41

personal You know if everyone's doing

58:43

it, I'm not gonna do it kind of thing I'm

58:47

probably gonna be at What

58:49

the field is doing for flex? But

58:53

It's really hard. Like I probably won't have them in Pacheco

58:55

lineups Or at least underweight

58:58

in Pacheco lineups thinking the

59:00

touchdowns go there but He's

59:02

a good play. He's just expensive. Yep.

59:05

That's it Like I can't can't

59:07

tell you not to but I probably won't go there too much

59:09

in captain Noah Gray is $1,800

59:12

and I came in this week ready

59:14

to fade Noah Gray But now

59:16

I'm at the point now or I

59:18

I understand his roster percentage I'm

59:20

not saying you have to play it but at 1800 What

59:23

does he have to do and what is the game script? He has

59:25

to do so He's

59:28

been targeted on 19 and a half percent

59:30

of his routes in the playoffs like that's

59:32

really really good They've done a lot of two tight

59:35

end sets against Miami when it was really cold and

59:37

against Buffalo when they had all their linebacker injuries But

59:41

you know if I told somebody you're getting targeted on

59:43

almost 20 percent of routes back sweet Who's this wide

59:45

receiver? His name is Noah Gray. So

59:47

on this on this slate That's

59:49

really good. It's third best on the

59:51

Chiefs right like that's right there behind

59:53

rice behind Kelsey and Gray's

59:56

in a good spot He's

59:58

also seeing the type of area targets

1:00:00

that matter so since week 12 he has

1:00:03

15 targets in the 0 to 9 ADOT

1:00:05

range that's third behind

1:00:07

Rice and Kelsey so he's

1:00:10

being targeted more frequently than MVS than

1:00:12

Watson these kind of boom bust players

1:00:15

so I think that there could be somewhat of

1:00:17

a floor if they run too tight in sets

1:00:20

but it just kind of depends on the game script like if they're

1:00:22

behind a ton you know do

1:00:25

they employ him as this other

1:00:27

wide receiver and he's used that way or

1:00:29

if they're ahead do they

1:00:31

go run heavy and he's kind of there on

1:00:33

play action stuff so at 1800

1:00:36

I feel like the reward outweighs

1:00:38

the risk yeah I think that's really well

1:00:40

said and especially when you talk

1:00:42

about these guys that are so fragile like I

1:00:44

just like to compare to the other guys in the

1:00:46

salary range when you think about Elijah Mitchell where

1:00:49

to mention Justin Watson Sky Moore Michael Harbin Kaderius

1:00:51

Tony CEH like those are the names around him

1:00:53

and would anyone be surprised if if you needed

1:00:55

someone in this group if it would be Noah

1:00:57

Gray I don't think anyone be shocked by that

1:00:59

and it's not like he's like 30 or

1:01:02

40 percent like he's gonna be about 20 to

1:01:04

24 I think somewhere in that range which on

1:01:07

this plate I think is manageable I would

1:01:09

rather play him than Justin Watson I think

1:01:11

personally I'd rather play him than CEH at

1:01:13

a similar awesome percentage personally so yeah I

1:01:15

think Noah Gray is solid as a salary

1:01:17

saving option it's

1:01:20

weird to say because usually we'd look at this and go

1:01:22

like okay this is

1:01:24

the backup tight end behind

1:01:28

you know the slate's like number one

1:01:30

priced wide receiver essentially what Travis Kelce

1:01:32

is so it's a

1:01:35

it's a weird spot to be in and I'm

1:01:38

seeing people playing them in captains you know four

1:01:40

or five percent and roster percentage and you can

1:01:42

do some weird fun stuff man I will

1:01:46

not be doing that personally you

1:01:49

don't want to get weird with Noah Gray no dude I don't

1:01:51

like it weird with Noah Gray come on could

1:01:55

be fun could be fun but yeah I

1:01:57

don't mind the flex right there at 1800 Kansas

1:02:00

City defense, I'm kind of like the

1:02:02

sweep. It's in

1:02:05

builds, like we said earlier, that they get ahead

1:02:07

early. They've also kind of

1:02:10

been unlucky. I've seen a couple people, C.D. Carter

1:02:12

of Roto World brought this up too, which I thought was really

1:02:14

good. But they've been a really good defense.

1:02:16

Second in pressure rate, they've been, this is the best

1:02:19

defense in the Patrick Mahoney era. They're

1:02:21

only 25th in turnover percentage. And turnover is one of those

1:02:23

things that just kind of even out over time. It's

1:02:26

just you can't really predict it. So I

1:02:29

think at 3400, the fact they're $1000 cheaper than San Francisco and they've been

1:02:33

the better defense in the playoffs. I

1:02:36

kind of like Kansas City and then I kind of like Butker.

1:02:39

I'll give out reasons more later. But

1:02:41

any final takes on their defense special teams? No,

1:02:43

I kind of mentioned it with the Niners. I

1:02:45

think both these defenses should be in your pool,

1:02:47

just again, considering what's around them. And

1:02:49

if five or six points from a defense is what you need in

1:02:52

the optimal, makes a ton of sense. And

1:02:55

then a Chiefs onslaught, you should have the

1:02:57

KC defense. If you're playing, I think Pacheco

1:02:59

captain, they correlate well with him and flex.

1:03:01

So that's where I'll be getting my KC

1:03:03

defense exposure. All right. So

1:03:05

just to review the captain's bets that

1:03:08

you want to be overweight on

1:03:10

our Christian McCaffrey, Rashi

1:03:12

Rice. I'm in. I'm in. I

1:03:15

think I'm in. Okay, let's do

1:03:17

it. And

1:03:19

then let's talk about the flex players

1:03:22

because obviously we're going to exposure to everybody,

1:03:24

but who are the flex players that you want

1:03:27

to be underweight on? And maybe the best way

1:03:29

to do this is Samuel White's question from Discord.

1:03:31

Who is Betz's if he beats me, he beats

1:03:33

me play of the week. I think it's

1:03:35

the H. I think that's the guy for me that 17

1:03:38

to 20% feels a little too much. So

1:03:42

I'll be underweight him. Cardi,

1:03:44

I already mentioned Juan Jennings. I just don't

1:03:46

think I can get there. I think Kittle,

1:03:48

it's a terrifying position to be, but he

1:03:51

just, he has the lowest target rate when those

1:03:53

three have all been in there with D-Bo, Iyuk,

1:03:55

and Kittle. He's seeing the fewest targets,

1:03:57

so I'll just hope that he doesn't have that 30 point.

1:04:00

and came and pray basically. And

1:04:02

then at captain for me, underweight is

1:04:04

Kelsey. I

1:04:06

think so, Kittle's probably the one I feel strongest

1:04:09

that I'll be underweight. And

1:04:11

then I think it's probably gonna be MVS, man. You

1:04:14

know for sure this is the week then that

1:04:16

you're off MVS where he just randomly catches that

1:04:18

50 yard bomb and buries you. I'm

1:04:21

rooting for him, man. Should be fine. Like I'm

1:04:23

rooting for him in Watson. Love, love me some

1:04:26

Justin Boyson. All right, we're

1:04:28

gonna give our Vegas picks and just so you know, the

1:04:31

ballers gave their picks on Thursday's

1:04:34

main show and

1:04:36

they actually asked for ours. And I

1:04:38

said, you better listen to the Fancy

1:04:40

Ballers DFS Embedding Podcast. If you

1:04:42

want our official Vegas picks. So Jason

1:04:45

and Mike both

1:04:47

took the Chiefs and

1:04:50

Andy took the 49ers in the

1:04:52

points. So what are you doing?

1:04:54

So I'm gonna be honest. I have

1:04:56

already put in my bet last

1:04:58

week as one of the public

1:05:00

backers. Well hit it again. Chiefs

1:05:02

money line. I'm not gonna lie,

1:05:05

man. I think

1:05:07

the Niners are the right side. Okay,

1:05:10

now I'm taking the Niners too. I just think

1:05:12

about whatever, you

1:05:14

cannot go anywhere right now without someone telling you

1:05:16

the Chiefs should have been favored, right? And if

1:05:18

you just say, you know what, hands up, I'm

1:05:21

probably wrong. I'll just do it the books, the

1:05:24

opposite of what everyone's doing at the book. You

1:05:26

win more often than not. So Niners, I think, pull

1:05:28

out the win. All

1:05:30

right, one more section. We're gonna go through a ton of

1:05:33

props. Prop

1:05:37

it like it's hot. All

1:05:40

of these props will be available in

1:05:42

the DFS Path. They're right there. Betts

1:05:44

published them for you. We gave

1:05:47

some props last week, including Brock Purdy's under

1:05:49

on his past attempts. Mikol

1:05:51

Hardman's under on his first reception. MBS is

1:05:53

under, which I did. And then

1:05:55

we talked about some long shot MVP bets

1:05:57

and teams to punt. Betts

1:06:00

and I will kind of blitz through these really quickly and

1:06:02

then he will give a final parlay But Betts we just

1:06:04

talked 45 minutes about that game Not

1:06:07

shocked to be honest All

1:06:10

right, hit me with your first one at quarterback Yes And just

1:06:12

so everyone knows on the website you can see all this stuff

1:06:14

in written form too if you kind of miss a piece of

1:06:16

The puzzle or whatever The first one

1:06:18

for me, I'm gonna take the under 21 and

1:06:20

a half Draft Kings points for

1:06:22

Pat Mahomes That is minus 140.

1:06:24

So it's a little juicy, but

1:06:26

this is a line. He just hasn't hit we talked

1:06:28

about the fact He's not usually throwing for 300 yards.

1:06:31

He hasn't had those three touchdown games He

1:06:33

has been under this mark in 16

1:06:35

of 19 games played this

1:06:38

season I will take the under 21 and a

1:06:40

half drafting points At

1:06:42

running back Christian McCaffrey greatest player on the

1:06:44

planet his first rush attempt

1:06:46

line Which you can find on Draft Kings

1:06:49

Sportsbook is set at three and a half

1:06:51

I actually asked Betts this and did the

1:06:53

research myself, but in 18

1:06:55

games this year that's including the playoffs He

1:06:58

has gone over this line in 67 percent

1:07:00

of them. I Like

1:07:02

the fact that the first couple plays are always

1:07:04

scripted for an offense Kyle Shane there

1:07:06

knows what he's doing It's also a good

1:07:09

matchup now the first place so you could lose

1:07:11

your money real quickly on it

1:07:13

But you also could be riding high and

1:07:15

then just play some in-game, you know stuff

1:07:18

and just fire away some flash bets But it's Christian

1:07:20

McCaffrey first rush over three and a half yards. Yeah,

1:07:22

these ones are fun where you just You

1:07:24

know you just put your money in on this one thing and then

1:07:26

you know as soon as it happens if you're in or out So

1:07:29

the sweats over My next prop

1:07:31

again, it's a little juicy. I found this at minus 160

1:07:33

on Caesars it's the

1:07:35

total number of San Francisco 49ers to have a

1:07:37

rush attempt and Right

1:07:40

now I think one's crazy. Four and a half is just way too high

1:07:42

I would put it at three and a half because

1:07:44

we know there's three locks in my opinion in this game

1:07:47

Obviously Christian McCaffrey Brock Purdy

1:07:50

and debo Samuel are gonna probably have at least

1:07:52

one rush attempt when I'm talking about debo So

1:07:54

then you say okay, who was the fourth? Is

1:07:56

it Elijah Mitchell? There's been plenty of games

1:07:59

where he has no time especially in the biggest

1:08:01

game of the year, Kyle Shannon

1:08:03

is not gonna be incentivized to give him a touch.

1:08:05

So I think he's questionable, but I could see it.

1:08:07

And then you say, okay, who is the fifth guy?

1:08:10

Juwan Jennings? I don't

1:08:12

know. Kyle Uscheck has had a carry in four

1:08:14

of 19 games. Is it Kyle Uscheck? I don't

1:08:17

know. There's just so many outs where

1:08:19

this under hits that I know laying minus 160

1:08:21

juice is not fun. But again, I think

1:08:23

this line is way off. I would put it at three and a half.

1:08:26

At wide receiver, my boy Justin Watson,

1:08:29

there's a line for his first quarter receiving yards.

1:08:31

It's at three and a half yards. I would

1:08:33

take the under on that. It is a lot

1:08:35

of juice and minus 180, but

1:08:38

Justin Watson has four catches in the first

1:08:40

quarter all year long. His last first quarter

1:08:42

catch was in November. And we've

1:08:44

seen in the playoffs, like his route rate has gone down

1:08:46

where MBS has kind of been the dude running

1:08:49

on two wide receiver sets with Rishi Rice. So if they

1:08:51

come out run heavy, I

1:08:53

can't see Justin Watson do that. So I would

1:08:55

take the under on his first quarter receiving yards.

1:08:57

Yep, I really like that one. All

1:09:00

right, next one. Again, another sweat that will be over as soon

1:09:02

as the game starts is Rishi

1:09:04

Rice to have a catch on the first

1:09:06

drive for Kansas City is yes

1:09:08

or no. It's a yes or no market. So it's

1:09:10

just, will it happen or not? Will you have one

1:09:13

catch on the first drive? The yes is minus 120,

1:09:15

which I did take. I think he has at least

1:09:17

one on the opening drive. I went back, looked at

1:09:19

kind of where he's been as far as he hits

1:09:21

this or not since he became a full-time player. Since

1:09:24

week 13, which is the first time he has

1:09:26

70 plus percent route rate, he has had at

1:09:28

least one catch on the opening drive in

1:09:30

six of eight games. So I'm gonna say yes,

1:09:32

I think he gets a scripted touch, maybe a

1:09:35

screen, something like that on the opening, you

1:09:37

know, drive of the game, and he has at least one catch. We

1:09:41

also have a Deebo one about his

1:09:44

rushing yards at 16 and a

1:09:46

half. Yeah, it's just inflated, man. People

1:09:48

love the overs. This line has been under, like

1:09:50

he's been at usually like 12 and a half,

1:09:52

13 and a half all regular season. So it's

1:09:54

inflated. And you also look

1:09:57

at like how often he's hit this. It has not been

1:09:59

very often at all. He has rushing attempts

1:10:01

to climb the three straight seasons. He's under this line

1:10:03

in 10 to 15 regular season games It's just way

1:10:05

too high of a line for where it should be

1:10:08

Yeah, Devo under six and a half rushing yards I

1:10:11

was asked this on discord and

1:10:13

you can look this up too bets who

1:10:15

my favorite semi long odds are For

1:10:17

first touchdown score, which is different than any

1:10:20

time touchdown score Pacheco at plus

1:10:22

650 is kind of interesting for a

1:10:24

player that's getting his type of usage red zone role

1:10:26

I think that's fine. If

1:10:28

you're on a real long shot I mean Kansas City

1:10:31

defense is just wild. Like I said, they've been very

1:10:34

unlucky your boy Noah Gray at plus 550

1:10:36

Or you know five thousand five hundred. I

1:10:39

don't really like playing this market personally I

1:10:41

like any time but I don't like doing

1:10:43

the first touchdown score. Yeah, I think no

1:10:45

gray is actually super interesting That

1:10:48

price is just crazy. Like how often does it have to hit for

1:10:50

this to be a good bet? Once

1:10:52

every hundred games right like yeah, if I

1:10:54

put a thousand dollars on it every time

1:10:57

eventually Eventually you get paid

1:10:59

off Obviously the probability is

1:11:01

low, but you're getting paid off with the odds for it. So

1:11:03

I think he is actually kind of interesting All

1:11:06

right. I'll give you two more fun ones Harrison, butter. I

1:11:08

talked about him earlier I like the over

1:11:10

of his kicking points at seven and a half that minus

1:11:12

115 right now He's averaging eight

1:11:15

kicking points per game Indoors

1:11:17

and that's where this will be played a

1:11:20

little different when you think about a lot of

1:11:22

the outdoor weather But yeah kicking indoors very

1:11:24

pro that and then we got

1:11:27

a Gatorade man, that's what people came back

1:11:29

for Gatorade

1:11:32

it's interesting because you know There's a lot of

1:11:34

speculation over the years like well who actually knows

1:11:36

this and how can these markets be influenced because

1:11:38

clearly somebody's making this Last

1:11:41

year was purple purple hit still

1:11:43

a favorite right there with blue And

1:11:46

then yellow greens next orange

1:11:48

by the way has been pretty popular hit

1:11:50

five times in the last What

1:11:53

is that 20 years? And

1:11:55

it was orange in 2020 when can city

1:11:58

one but red man What

1:12:01

do you think about red? There's some

1:12:03

swift, you know, swift connections there. Both

1:12:06

teams are red, it's good odds.

1:12:09

It also has never happened, right? There's never been red

1:12:11

as the winner? No,

1:12:13

they've had red. Oh, they have, okay. But

1:12:15

it hasn't happened very often recently, right? Right,

1:12:18

it's actually not been very often at all. Okay, it's

1:12:20

due. It's due for it to be red. Let's go

1:12:22

with red. Yeah,

1:12:25

I just sprinkle a little bit on everything and then you can

1:12:27

just say you won. Perfect,

1:12:29

great strategy. All

1:12:32

right, Betts, finish us off with a giant parlay

1:12:34

that will certainly hit. Okay, this is plus 600

1:12:36

odds on draft kings. Be smart with

1:12:38

your money, this is for fun, but also this is guaranteed

1:12:40

to hit. Christian McCaffrey, touchdown anytime

1:12:42

is yes. He's had a touchdown at 15

1:12:44

of 18 games. We're

1:12:47

gonna take, also McCaffrey, 60 plus rushing yards. He

1:12:49

has hit that in 14 of 18 games. We

1:12:52

talked about the matchup, it's certainly there. We're gonna

1:12:55

take the Chiefs, put them up to plus eight and a

1:12:57

half, so we get a little bit of a buffer there.

1:13:00

Keep it within one score, basically. Under

1:13:02

54 and a half, get the alt total.

1:13:04

We're gonna fade MBS and Justin Watson, and

1:13:06

this is terrifying because whenever this

1:13:08

happens, they just go off. We're

1:13:11

gonna take under one and a half catches for

1:13:13

Watson. He's been under this in eight of his

1:13:15

last 10 games since Rasheed Rice became a full-time

1:13:17

player, and MBS has not had at

1:13:19

least 31 yards almost every

1:13:21

game this year. He's been under

1:13:23

in 14 of 19 of those games. All

1:13:25

of them together, plus 600. Yep,

1:13:29

so ride with us, it'll be fun. We're

1:13:33

grateful for the whole season that you guys got to

1:13:35

have fun with us, play some DFS, have a good

1:13:37

community at ballersdiscord.com. So that's

1:13:39

gonna do it. We're gonna sign

1:13:41

off now, and hopefully when we hear from you next

1:13:43

time, you'll be a Millie maker.

1:13:45

Dude, that would be so great, man. This has been

1:13:47

a really fun season. Thank you to everyone out there

1:13:50

for the support all year, for engaging with us on

1:13:52

Discord, on social media, and listening. We love you guys.

1:13:54

We'll miss you. We'll see you in two months. April

1:13:57

NFL draft. Enjoy the Super Bowl.

1:14:06

Thank you for listening to another

1:14:08

edition of the Fantasy Footballers DFS

1:14:11

and betting podcast. Don't forget to

1:14:13

visit us on the web at

1:14:15

the fantasyfootballers.com