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2:26

It seemed like an obvious fit. Xavier

2:28

McKinney, Jeff Halfley. Jeff Halfley comes

2:30

in talking about he wants to play

2:32

a lot more single high safety. You

2:34

need that post defender. And

2:36

so I think there was an assumption

2:39

made by a lot of Packer

2:41

fans that that

2:43

was just it. That he was going to play in

2:45

the middle and and Jevon Bullard who was

2:47

you know a nickel at Georgia and Evan Williams

2:49

who played a lot in the box as a

2:52

Blitzer, Keaton, all Adapo profiles more than Daim Landbacker

2:54

that this was just as easy as

2:56

okay we we know what this is going to look like.

3:00

I don't think that's true. And

3:03

that's the point. That's the whole

3:07

point. You

3:09

don't sign Xavier McKinney to just

3:11

throw him back and play in

3:14

the middle of the field, center field for

3:17

60 snaps. That's

3:19

not the best use of Xavier McKinney. He's

3:22

a really good slot defender. He's a

3:24

really good box player. He's

3:27

a really adept Blitzer

3:30

and run defender when he's put in those

3:32

positions. His versatility is part of

3:34

his appeal. The same

3:36

is true of Jevon Bullard whose

3:39

best spot to me is in the slot. But

3:42

we've we've seen him do things middle field, half

3:44

field in the box. He's a

3:46

willing tackler and run defender. If

3:49

you know where everyone is going to

3:51

be every snap

3:54

a defense like this that wants to play a

3:56

bunch of single high safety. A lot of cover

3:58

three a lot of cover. one, it's

4:01

just not going to work.

4:03

If you know that's what you're getting and

4:06

who it's going to be and

4:08

where those guys are going to be every play. It's

4:11

just going to be too easy to

4:13

attack and the, and I'm

4:17

not just speculating. Kaushanhan

4:21

tore up these

4:23

defenses. It's why these

4:25

defenses, these cover three Seattle,

4:28

Seahawk defenses. Have

4:32

all but died in the NFL. Robert

4:34

Salah, who is Kaushanhan's own defensive coordinator

4:37

at the peak of their combined powers

4:39

had to adjust his defense because he was like,

4:41

well crap. Like if Kyle can rip

4:44

apart my defenses, then these other coaches can too. She didn't

4:46

even get shot McVeigh. You get them out of the floor,

4:48

all these teams and, and the

4:50

beauty of what this offense is, the

4:52

Packers offense, the Rams offense, the 49ers

4:55

offense, the Browns is

4:58

it can work against so many different kinds

5:00

of defenses. If you

5:02

don't have pre and post snap disguise, you

5:06

don't have a defense. And

5:11

that's why when you, when you hear Brian

5:13

Utica and say, we want these guys to

5:15

be interchangeable, he's not just

5:17

paying lip service to the idea of

5:20

having players who can play multiple positions. Number

5:23

one, the Packers do this on

5:25

offensive line. And so we know that

5:27

they live out this ethos. This,

5:29

this is not just a thing

5:31

you say because in a press conference,

5:33

it sounds cool, but

5:37

it's, it's actually essential

5:39

to the way that you're going to

5:41

play defense. That

5:44

Jevon Bullard can play deep

5:46

middle if you want or need him to that

5:49

Evan Williams, bottled in bond can

5:52

play deep middle in a

5:54

pinch. If you need him to that

5:57

Keshan Nixon, your slot defender. If you

5:59

want him. on

6:01

a faint to go play

6:03

deep half, deep middle. I believe he

6:05

can do that. I don't think it's gonna be something he's gonna

6:07

be asked to do a lot, but once

6:10

I saw Jevon Bullard do it one time at Georgia,

6:12

I was like, oh my God, that has to be

6:14

Keshia Nixon. You have to do that. You have

6:16

to try that if you're the Packers. It

6:22

just doesn't work

6:25

to have Xavier McKinney try and be Earl Thomas.

6:29

And the point of getting someone

6:31

like Jeff Halfly is

6:34

that he understands that

6:37

because he has adapted. He

6:40

played a certain kind of way in

6:42

Cleveland with Kyle Shanahan. Then

6:45

in San Francisco with Chip

6:47

Kelly, and then again with Kyle Shanahan, they

6:49

had to play some different kinds of ways. Then he

6:51

goes to Ohio State. And

6:54

now all of a sudden you've got all these dudes.

6:58

You can play more man coverage. You go to Boston

7:00

College. Now you don't have the dudes. And the only

7:02

way to make this all work is to just blitz

7:05

the bejesus out of

7:07

your opponents and play a bunch of

7:09

press man coverage. They're

7:12

not gonna play a bunch of press man in

7:14

the NFL. They're not gonna blitz

7:16

as much in the NFL. You're

7:20

not gonna use Xavier McKinney like Earl Thomas.

7:23

He's too good of a slot defender. He's too good of

7:25

a box player as a run defender. It's

7:28

just not how this

7:30

is gonna work. And

7:33

so like Cody Alexander, our pal who's been on the

7:35

show, the R of the

7:37

X, Matt Quarters, one of the preeminent voices

7:40

in media on defense. He

7:43

wrote a preview about the Packers. And

7:46

there were some people that reacted because he was

7:48

like, oh, Xavier McKinney is probably gonna play in

7:50

the box. And people were like, no,

7:52

no, he's the post safety. It's like, well, yes

7:56

and no. The whole point

7:58

is that he can do. all of

8:00

these different things and in fact if

8:03

you pay you

8:06

know 15 plus million 17

8:11

million for

8:13

Xavier McKinney it

8:15

can't be to just go patrol in

8:17

center field because yes

8:20

he can do that the where he was best

8:23

last year cover three cover one

8:27

but it's not just

8:31

the ways that he is a good player

8:34

and if you're a defensive backs coach

8:37

you understand not

8:40

just that premise but the idea that if

8:43

I disguise priest snap and

8:45

post snap and you don't always know where Xavier

8:47

McKinney is going to be and

8:49

you don't know if he's walked up to the line of scrimmage is

8:51

he blitzing or is he gonna sink back

8:53

and all of a sudden he's your single feet he's your

8:55

he's your single high post safety

8:58

or just kidding

9:00

it's covered to

9:02

or just kidding it's quarters or just

9:04

kidding it's and it's it's robber like

9:06

there's so much you can

9:08

do with a safety room full

9:11

of versatile

9:13

defenders so

9:16

yes when you need

9:18

a post safety is

9:20

he the best one on the team right now probably

9:25

but because he's so good at all these

9:27

other things it would be a

9:29

disservice to both the player and

9:31

your defense to only play him that

9:33

way and

9:36

I know that you

9:38

know we were talking about the Jeff half-league defense

9:40

and what's it gonna look like and these questions

9:43

and in the absence of any evidence

9:45

we fill the void we fill that

9:48

vacuum with our own preconceived notions

9:50

our own speculation you know well he's

9:52

been talking about needing a post safety they signed

9:55

Xavier McKinney to all his money he's your post safety well yes

9:59

he will be But he will also be

10:01

these other things because he's also really good

10:03

at all these other things If

10:06

you want him to play if you want to man him

10:08

up Against a receiver in the slot.

10:10

He can do that Or

10:12

a tight end or a running back. He can do that.

10:14

He's really good at that in fact But

10:17

if you wanted to play single high cover three, he's

10:20

really good at that, too so

10:23

Have having all of these skill sets. I think for

10:25

some players you go. Well, he's a jack of all

10:27

trades and a master of Normal, that's not true As

10:31

a single high safety. He's really good as a

10:33

slot corner. He's really good He

10:35

has some defined traits where you go Okay These are the best

10:37

ways to use him and they happen to fit the way that

10:39

the packers Want to play a lot

10:42

of cover three a lot of cover one. That's a lot of single high

10:44

safety But then you

10:46

add in jevon bullard who can also play

10:48

single high Who can also play

10:50

man covers in the slot who can also defend

10:52

the run from the box who can also play

10:55

half field safety And

10:57

then you add these other two safeties who

10:59

are Diverse you add

11:01

anthony johnson jr. Who is a former corner?

11:05

What kind of coverage ability can he give you from the slot?

11:08

What does he look like as a single high

11:10

safety something they didn't do a ton of last

11:12

year? The

11:16

disguise the versatility That's

11:18

that's the point And

11:22

I think to have a defensive coordinator who understands

11:24

that we think Is

11:26

also The point we're going

11:29

to stay on defense here Coming up

11:31

next unlocked on packers with some critical

11:33

decisions That the team has to make Today's

11:39

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americanexpress.com/with Amex. We're

13:09

going to talk about the future of Kenny Clark. We're

13:13

going to do that in a second, but are you watching Fox

13:15

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13:43

I was thinking

13:46

about this Kenny Clark

13:48

situation and why

13:50

it hasn't been resolved. And I think ultimately the

13:53

most likely outcome is the Packers resign Kenny

13:55

Clark. He is a special player. He is

13:58

someone who has anchored this defense. for a long

14:00

time. He's coming off his best season as

14:03

a pass rusher and this defense

14:05

is perfectly suited to him. But

14:10

I said this on Twitter the other day over

14:14

a clip of Karl Brooks being awesome. And

14:17

he right now is one of those like football

14:20

hipster, deep film Twitter kinds of guys

14:23

where everyone's like, wait, have you guys seen

14:25

Karl Brooks? Like he's really, really good. He

14:27

is. And

14:31

it made me wonder, we're

14:34

waiting on this Kenny Clark deal. I would actually say the pack

14:36

was a bunch of money. Now maybe it is the case that

14:38

we're just waiting on the Jordan Love deal. And

14:41

so once that's done, the Kenny Clark deal will get done.

14:44

But it made me wonder if

14:48

a team that does not give out third

14:50

contracts lightly and

14:53

a team that has invested heavily

14:55

in the interior defensive line, Devontae Wyatt in

14:57

the first round, you

14:59

hit on Karl Brooks, Kobe Woodin's been a

15:01

nice rotational player. It looks

15:03

like TJ Slayton is gonna take an elevated role this

15:06

year, take on more of those nose tackle responsibilities. And

15:08

if you re-sign him, it's

15:11

gonna cost a lot less than re-signing Kenny

15:13

Clark. You have these other upfield

15:15

penetrating type defensive tackles.

15:19

Could the Packers look at Kenny Clark and have

15:22

Brian Gudetkin say, yes,

15:24

that Kenny Clark is nice, but we have Kenny Clark at home.

15:27

And it's Karl Brooks. It's Devontae Wyatt.

15:30

It's Kobe Woodin. It's TJ Slayton.

15:32

That the combination of those guys and

15:34

their ability to get upfield, to

15:37

create some chaos in the backfield, let Devontae Wyatt

15:40

finish a pressure

15:43

one-time challenge. Karl

15:46

Brooks, I mean, he has some pass-through

15:48

traps last year that look like

15:50

Kenny Clark. He's

15:52

not as complete a player. No one on this

15:54

team is, and it's really not that close. But

15:58

is that difference worth? worth 20

16:01

plus million dollars? That's

16:03

the question the Packers are asking. Now, I

16:06

wanna make this clear. The

16:08

Packers can afford to pay Kenny Clark. I

16:12

would simply pay the really good

16:14

player you already have and

16:17

also get all of this production

16:19

from Karl Brooks and Kobe Wooden,

16:21

NTJ Slayton, and whatever

16:23

else you're able to find in

16:25

future drafts, right? But

16:28

that's me. I

16:31

don't know if Brian Gudekins and Russ Ball are

16:34

going to feel the same way because, look,

16:36

Jordan Levy is going to cost them a lot of

16:39

money and they're

16:41

gonna have to pay Zach Tom in

16:43

a year. This

16:47

team is not going to be cheap forever.

16:53

So they

16:55

have some decisions to make. And

17:00

I feel myself doing this and I

17:02

understand. There is this, and whenever

17:06

I hear it, whenever I see it on Twitter, it's

17:09

very common on social media to be

17:11

like, well, I wouldn't be surprised if this thing,

17:14

and what you're really doing is

17:16

insulating yourself by

17:18

saying, well, I think this isn't what I would do. I think

17:21

it's what the Packers could do. And

17:23

what you really wanna say is this is what I think

17:25

the Packers will do, but

17:28

you're insulating yourself by saying, I wouldn't be

17:30

surprised if XYZ happened. I

17:32

actually kind of would be surprised if the Packers just said,

17:34

you know what, Kenny Clark, we're good. And

17:38

so I'm trying to

17:41

be transparent about my thought process on

17:43

this, but

17:46

at the same time, it

17:48

would not be out of character for the Packers

17:50

to act this way. I think that's the thing.

17:53

So while Kenny

17:56

Clark is not Aaron Jones in terms of

17:58

the questions about availability, the

18:00

position, all those things, and

18:02

the replaceability. You can just get running backs.

18:06

So not wanting to pay Aaron Jones whatever

18:09

he wanted and

18:11

setting a hard cap at numbers that, to us

18:14

from the outside seem like, is

18:17

this really, especially from a

18:19

haypackers perspective, not a hay players

18:21

perspective. Fans love to be pocket

18:25

watchers and go, for a couple of million,

18:27

can you just, you made a lot of money, can you just come

18:29

back? I'm not even advocating that part

18:31

of it. From a Packers standpoint,

18:33

they set a hard cutoff. It was a much

18:36

lower number than I

18:38

think the numbers we thought were in play.

18:41

And that's where the Packers valued Aaron Jones.

18:44

I don't think that's what

18:46

this is. If

18:50

I had to predict, Kenny Clark will be on this team,

18:53

but the fact that

18:55

Karl Brooks played as well as he did last

18:57

year, that Devante Wyatt showed as much pass rush

18:59

juice as he did last year,

19:01

and that this defense is ideally

19:03

suited to magnify the traits that

19:05

those guys have, made

19:09

me at least pause for a second and go, is

19:12

there something here beyond just

19:15

waiting on the Jordan Love deal that might

19:17

be holding this up? Is there something structural

19:19

about the way that this team is put

19:21

together? Is there something about

19:23

not wanting to pay Kenny Clark? Because

19:25

we haven't gotten the deal yet. Until we get

19:27

the deal, I'm gonna be wondering why

19:30

is there no deal and what is the

19:32

potential source of reasoning

19:35

here? We

19:37

could get tomorrow, we could get a deal. Today, we could

19:40

get a deal. And

19:42

of course, we'll talk about it. But that's

19:45

why this was on my mind, because I was like,

19:47

okay, what is going on here? What

19:50

could be going on here? And

19:52

I got the perfect opportunity to talk

19:55

about it because of the Karl Brooks thing. Oh,

19:57

okay, cool. something

20:00

that I can latch onto. And

20:02

I think Carl Brooks can be a really good player. Can

20:05

he be Kenny Clark? Like,

20:09

this is a little bit of the Peter Griffin.

20:11

Like, Carl Brooks could be anything. He could even

20:13

be as good as Kenny Clark. And

20:16

you know how much we've always wanted a Kenny Clark. Well,

20:18

actually, they already have a Kenny Clark. Just pay

20:21

him. Just pay

20:23

Kenny Clark. And then you have Carl Brooks, who's, by the

20:25

way, under contract still for a couple more years. Devante

20:28

Wyatt, they have to make a decision

20:30

on that, but you still have a

20:32

fifth year option looming. And so I'm

20:35

not worried about it right now. Like, by the time, if

20:38

let's say Carl Brooks explodes, you pay

20:40

Kenny Clark this season, you

20:46

give yourself a chance that when you have to

20:48

pay Carl Brooks, it doesn't

20:50

matter if you have to cut Kenny Clark at that point. Right

20:53

now, it would matter. And

20:55

to me, that's the biggest difference. Right now, it would matter

20:57

to move on from

20:59

Kenny Clark. In

21:02

two or three years, it might not. So what

21:04

is, how could you, so let's

21:06

just, let's just game this out. If

21:10

to do a thing now would be bad, but

21:13

to do a thing later might be okay.

21:15

The only way to ensure that you

21:18

don't have to do it until later is

21:22

to pay Kenny to do it. Do

21:26

it for a couple more years. Oh my God, we

21:28

solved it. Pay Kenny Clark. But

21:33

would it be shocking if they didn't? No. I

21:36

wanna talk about Clutch because I wanna

21:38

talk about Jordan Love. That's next,

21:40

Unlocked on Packers. Today's

21:46

episode brought to you by our friends

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22:52

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22:54

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22:56

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22:59

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23:01

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23:03

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23:05

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23:07

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23:10

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23:12

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23:16

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TV channels app. So

23:41

Arif Hasan, who mostly covers

23:43

the Vikings, which I know is gonna cause some

23:45

of you to dismiss his work out of hand,

23:48

I understand the impulse and I support

23:51

it. But

23:54

he wrote this really lengthy piece for

23:57

Wide Left, which is his, is

24:00

Substack and

24:03

it looked at this idea of clutch play.

24:05

And there's two reasons why I bring this

24:07

up. The

24:09

first and most important I think is the

24:13

criticism that I hear most often

24:15

when other fan bases wanna

24:17

talk about Jordan Love and, you

24:19

know, oh, the season, it's half a season and

24:23

look at how the season ended. And

24:25

you go clutch play, is this really something to

24:27

think about? And the

24:30

conclusion that Arif comes to based

24:32

on, you know, a mountain of data

24:36

and other people's analysis and his analysis

24:38

and it is an exhaustive piece. I

24:40

mean, it's thousands and thousands of words.

24:44

Is yes, there

24:47

is such a thing as clutch, but like only

24:51

insofar as players are clutch

24:55

relative to their talent, good

24:58

players tend

25:01

to just be good. And

25:03

this is good for Jordan Love. The

25:07

problem with any clutch stat is sample

25:10

size. And

25:13

so if you don't get that many opportunities,

25:18

you're not gonna get great data on how someone

25:20

performs in those situations that actually, if we're

25:22

talking about trying to predict and that's really the only

25:24

thing that matters. And this is something

25:27

I've come to understand about a lot of this data,

25:30

is if we can only define

25:32

it based on looking retrospectively at

25:35

it, which

25:37

is often what happens with clutch. Oh, they're clutch because we

25:39

think they're clutch and we went back and looked at their

25:41

numbers and it turns out, yes, they are. If

25:44

it's not predictive, it's

25:48

usually not particularly useful.

25:52

That's not always true, but

25:55

that tends to be the tensile test for these things. And

25:58

by and large, clutch performance. many

28:00

pressure reps as you have in one or two

28:02

regular reps from a clean pocket. That's

28:05

not quite how the math works, but it's probably

28:07

two to one in most cases. Three

28:09

to one if you're really lucky in a given season.

28:14

That can be predictive, that's the

28:16

key piece over time. Doesn't

28:19

mean it always is, but it is

28:21

indicative of something. And

28:24

it's not just a reflective idea.

28:28

It's not just like, hey, let's look back at all

28:30

this stuff. No, it can actually tell us something about

28:32

what the future holds. I'm

28:35

not ready to go there with Jordan Love, it is just one

28:37

season. But

28:40

I think if you put these two things together,

28:42

that over the course of the year, Jordan Love

28:44

performed from a pure production standpoint

28:47

as a top ten quarterback, that

28:50

that says good things about what he can

28:52

potentially be in clutch moments. And

28:55

we saw him perform in clutch moments against the

28:57

Saints to come back and get

28:59

that win down 17 points in the fourth quarter.

29:03

Against the Giants came back a

29:05

game where he wasn't playing particularly well and

29:08

gave his team a chance the Packers just couldn't stop Tommy

29:11

freaking DeVito. Well, that's a Joe

29:13

Barry problem. Now,

29:16

there were also some games late. Denver had a

29:18

chance to go win it late. Raiders

29:20

had a chance to go win it late and couldn't. Is

29:25

that a small sample size problem or is

29:27

it indicative of something more? Well, his overall

29:30

play suggests for the moment. He's

29:33

gonna be fine there. And at

29:36

least the information we have so far about how

29:38

Jordan Love handles pressure tells us in

29:40

the future. There's

29:44

at least the start of a basis to claim

29:46

that he will handle pressure while

29:48

moving forward. I still don't think there's

29:50

enough data. I think we need like a couple years of

29:53

data. But like again, Jared Goff is one of

29:55

those examples. Where

29:57

we just know the deal with him. can

30:00

pressure him, you can rattle him. That

30:02

is still true for as good as he has been

30:05

with the lions and as good as Ben Johnson has

30:07

been as an offensive coordinator, mitigating some of those weaknesses.

30:09

It is still true. He was one of

30:12

the worst graded preferred starters last year against

30:14

pressure. And you know, like this is well

30:17

into his career now. This

30:20

is not, oh, he sometimes this,

30:23

he sometimes this. No, no, he's just always

30:25

been pretty bad against pressure. It's

30:28

just who he is. So

30:34

the data we have for Jordan Love right now is encouraging. We're

30:37

going to need more. We're going to need more. And

30:41

speaking of needing more, we're back tomorrow. Always

30:43

here to give you more. Always here to

30:45

give you more. Follow me on Twitter, Peter

30:48

Rohnerskorbukowski. Follow the podcast on Twitter, Locked on

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