0:01

Marketplace is funded by the public for

0:03

the public. Your financial support

0:05

empowers us to dive into the stories

0:08

that matter most. Thank you

0:10

to those who gave during our May fundraiser

0:12

and to those who give year-round. Support

0:14

is still needed to end our budget year on target.

0:17

Help power this important resource

0:20

by making your gift at

0:22

marketplace.org/donate. Let's

0:27

move after last night's debate, ushers

0:29

in new uncertainty about the direction

0:32

of American politics. I'm

0:34

David Brancatier. The rule of thumb in

0:36

the investment world is that market players

0:39

do not like uncertainty. And the question

0:41

this morning is whether there is more

0:43

or less of it with regards to

0:45

the next president of the United States.

0:47

After a rough night for President Biden

0:49

on stage, next to former President Trump,

0:51

Marketplace's Novosafo is tracking how the debate

0:53

may have affected the movement of money

0:55

here this morning. He joins me now. Well,

0:58

David, the value of the dollar spiked

1:00

for a while during and after the

1:02

debate against some other currencies. The fluctuations

1:05

then calmed. But those moves were

1:07

still an important signal because what they tell

1:09

us is that at least some traders became

1:11

more convinced of a second Trump term. Trump

1:14

has called for tariffs on all goods coming

1:16

into the country from all parts of the

1:18

world, not just China. And that would be

1:21

a significant escalation of his past protectionist policies.

1:23

And that directly ties into the dollar because

1:25

higher tariffs mean higher prices, which Americans must

1:27

pay for imported goods, which potentially leads to

1:30

a longer period of higher inflation and a

1:32

subsequent longer period of higher interest rates. And

1:34

all of that strengthens the dollar. What

1:37

are other ways we're seeing the markets respond

1:40

here, Nova? Well, you know, one

1:42

of the most interesting takeaways appears to be that

1:44

what we did not hear that much about last

1:46

night, and that's China. Asian markets are

1:48

taking the lack of news as good news, particularly

1:50

since both Biden and Trump have both been very

1:52

critical in the past of China. Otherwise,

1:54

it's still a bit early, David, and I think

1:56

a lot of people are still digesting what happened

1:59

last night, including many. on Wall Street, there

2:01

is now a stronger likelihood of the 2017

2:03

Trump era tax cuts getting extended in their

2:05

entire delete list, according to some on

2:07

Wall Street and what happens with taxes when it's one

2:09

of the biggest and most immediate variables that Wall Street

2:11

has been concerned about. All

2:13

right, Marketplace is Nova Safo. Thank you very

2:15

much. The

2:30

planet is heating up, sea levels

2:32

are rising, and if you're feeling

2:34

overwhelmed by it all, you're

2:36

not alone. There are things we

2:38

can do to make a difference. That's

2:41

why we're answering your burning questions

2:43

on this season of How We

2:45

Survive, a podcast for Marketplace. Whether

2:48

you want to reduce your home's

2:50

carbon footprint, eat a climate-friendly diet,

2:52

or you just want to ease

2:54

your dread about climate change, How

2:56

We Survive can help you navigate

2:58

our changing planet. Listen

3:01

to How We Survive wherever you get

3:03

your podcasts. Now

3:05

to the future of Social Security.

3:07

Last night during the debate, former

3:09

President Trump said without evidence that

3:11

Biden will endanger Social Security. President

3:13

Biden said, The biggest thing I'll

3:15

do if we defeat this man, because

3:17

he wants to get rid of Social Security.

3:20

He thinks there's plenty to cut in Social Security. Now

3:23

in an interview with CNBC back in

3:25

March of this year, Trump had said

3:27

there is a lot you can do

3:29

for, quote, cutting Social Security. The

3:31

Trump campaign later said the comment

3:33

was about cutting waste and fraud.

3:35

Now later in last night's debate,

3:38

Trump worked to draw a line

3:40

between Biden immigration policy and pressures

3:42

on entitlement programs. But

3:44

Social Security, he's destroying

3:46

it because millions of people are pouring into

3:48

our country and they're putting them on to

3:51

Social Security. They're putting them on to Medicare,

3:53

Medicaid. This

3:55

week here, we've been looking at how Social

3:57

Security is OK for about another 10 years,

3:59

but then things come. a cropper and it'll

4:01

take higher taxes or lower benefits to keep

4:03

the system sound. Policymakers on the

4:06

left and the right agree there's a problem,

4:08

but not on a solution. Marketplace's

4:10

Kimberly Adams has more on how a

4:12

Social Security crunch back in the 1980s

4:15

may offer guidance. It's

4:17

April 20th, 1983. Dexi's

4:20

Midnight Runners is at the top of the radio

4:22

charts. And

4:25

at the White House, President Ronald Reagan

4:28

is signing a law to save Social

4:30

Security. Just a few months ago,

4:32

there was legitimate alarm that Social Security

4:34

would soon run out of money. And

4:37

both sides of the political aisle, there were

4:39

dark suspicions that opponents from the other party

4:42

were more interested in playing politics than in

4:44

solving the problem. But they

4:46

pulled together a bipartisan commission, buckled down,

4:48

and at the last minute, made a

4:50

deal. Jennifer Urkelwater teaches political

4:53

science at the University of Richmond.

4:55

They really didn't kind of like run

4:57

up to the very deadline

5:00

before Social Security was going to

5:02

run out of money for benefits.

5:04

Nothing like a deadline to create

5:06

that sense of crisis. To

5:08

fix the program, lawmakers made some changes

5:10

that are on the table now. They

5:13

did raise taxes. They did lower

5:15

benefits by raising the retirement age.

5:18

Doug Arnold is author of the book

5:20

Fixing Social Security, the Politics of Reform

5:23

in a Polarized Age. And

5:25

they put Social Security on

5:27

the past solvency for decades

5:29

and decades. But it

5:31

literally was within a few months

5:34

of running out of revenue. And I

5:36

believe the same thing will happen in 2035. But

5:39

some of the fixes back in

5:42

1983 were one-time solutions, says Charles

5:44

Blauhaus at the Mercatus Center. They

5:47

exposed benefits to income taxation for the

5:49

first time. They brought in

5:51

all new federal employees to pay payroll taxes

5:53

into the system for the first time. That's

5:55

obviously not something we can do again because

5:57

it's already been done. between

6:00

then and now, says Blauhaus, baby

6:02

boomers are retiring and there are

6:04

fewer workers paying into the system.

6:06

So the gap between payroll taxes

6:08

coming in and social security benefits

6:11

going out has been widening for

6:13

years. So now if you wait till the

6:15

2030s and say, okay, let's try

6:17

to fix the trust fund at the

6:19

last minute, well, you can't do that

6:21

anymore, because by then the annual shortfall

6:23

is so large that there's

6:26

no realistic way you could close

6:28

it. Plus there's a pretty big

6:30

generational imbalance, says Jennifer Urkelwater at

6:32

the University of Richmond. The

6:34

ratio of working age people

6:36

to support each retiree is

6:39

shrinking, and so it places a heavier

6:41

and heavier burden on each

6:44

individual working aged person. And

6:46

the longer Congress waits to find a

6:48

solution to that problem of the future,

6:51

the closer it gets to repeating a

6:53

crisis of the past. In

6:55

Washington, I'm Kimberly Adams for Marketplace.

6:58

And it wasn't just a pandemic

7:00

thing, it will stay hard finding

7:02

people to hire in America. A

7:04

new report from the McKinsey Global

7:06

Institute predicts workers shortages, which

7:08

is an expensive hassle for companies and helps

7:11

workers get better wages and benefits, those are

7:13

likely to persist. A lot of

7:15

this are baby boomers aging out of

7:17

the workforce, sharply increasing available jobs per

7:19

available worker. McKinsey sees artificial intelligence as

7:22

a possible way to get jobs done

7:24

with the workers we have. But despite

7:26

all the AI excitement, it is a

7:28

technology that needs to prove its usefulness.

7:31

I'm David Brancaccio. This is the Marketplace

7:33

Morning Report. From

7:36

APM, American Public Media. Hey

7:41

everyone, it's Rima Reis, host of This is

7:43

Uncomfortable, here to let you all know about

7:45

our summer book club. Every

7:47

other week, we're gonna recommend a book

7:49

that our team loves that gets at

7:51

some uncomfortable topic around money, class, our

7:54

relationship to work. We'll

7:56

feature a wide range of recs, including

7:58

classics like EM Forester's Apparel.