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1:17

by Anthropic. Hi,

1:25

everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine

1:27

and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Cara

1:29

Swisher. I'm Scott Galloway. I'm

1:32

in Vegas. Where are you? You're in

1:34

Vegas. Yeah. I got here at one in the morning. I'm leaving

1:36

just as soon as I can. What are

1:38

you doing in Vegas? You're feeding your gambling habit again.

1:40

Feeding my gambling habit, another book thing, a

1:42

book related thing. Still on that bestseller

1:45

list, so I got to stay there. Yeah. I've heard

1:47

that about seven times a day in our

1:49

little. Yeah. No, no. Fantastic. It's very exciting.

1:51

This is how you see. You're about to say, you're on everything. What

1:53

are you talking about? You're on Rickroll. You're on. Richroll.

1:55

And by the way, I want

1:57

to adopt that guy as my brother. That guy has.

2:00

such a chill vibe about him. He does. He is

2:02

kind of your guy, isn't he? Someday

2:04

you're going to have that beard. I think you're going to have that

2:06

beard. I don't have a

2:08

good scruff. Really? Now if he grew it

2:11

forever? No. Not like that.

2:13

He was blessed. That guy is very

2:15

handsome. No, that means he's be-ar-ial, as they

2:17

say. Be-ar-ial. Yeah. He's got a really interesting

2:19

story. He was an addict and he

2:23

was so grateful to the community that he's

2:25

built a bit of a media company around

2:27

some of the principles of recovery. Yeah. And

2:30

he's just so soulful and so sincere. And he's

2:32

really leaned into podcasting. He has this beautiful studio

2:34

in Agoura Hills and he forces people to come

2:36

out there. Oh, wow. But he does a great

2:39

job. I think it's really interesting. He's built a

2:41

nice business. He's been doing it for 12 years.

2:43

But you are everywhere. You're moving into the promiscuous

2:45

stage of your book. Okay. You've banged the whole

2:48

football team and you're accusing me of kissing more

2:50

than one guy. Yeah, that's true. Now,

2:52

Scott, you're at the TED conference in Vancouver.

2:54

How's it going? TED, I've never

2:56

been here before. TED is wonderful. It's easy to

2:58

sort of be cynical about it. First off, Vancouver

3:00

is beautiful. It is. What a great city. I

3:02

haven't been here in 20 years. Last time I

3:04

was here, we were checking out retirement in places

3:06

where my mom would retire when we came to

3:08

Vancouver. It is gorgeous. It is indeed. And

3:11

the people are just super nice. It's

3:13

a nice vibe. I enjoyed the talks.

3:16

I was more nervous yesterday before

3:18

my talk than I have been in a while because

3:20

I really like Chris Anderson. And

3:23

he's very good at making you feel like

3:25

you're going to make or break the conference.

3:28

Oh, really? So I said to him, they

3:30

gave me 12 minutes, which they claimed was a long

3:32

time. I said, I think I need 14 or 15. He

3:34

looked me in the eyes and he's like, is it great? Oh,

3:37

no. And I'm like, I think so. I hope so.

3:39

He's like, take as much time as you need as

3:41

long as it's great. And he's like, you're the anchor

3:43

swimmer in the session. So I was

3:45

really nervous, but the talk went well and

3:47

people are super nice. Yeah, I heard people

3:49

were lining up for you and not Bill

3:51

Ackman. I've gotten reports from all my spies.

3:53

They said you were very good. Oh, thanks

3:55

for that. Thanks for that. Yeah, Bill, I

3:57

spoke after Bill and after Barry Weiss. Mm-hmm.

4:00

And also Andrew Yang, I was

4:02

in this session called Provocateurs. Oh,

4:04

dear. I'm like, we're not that

4:06

provocative. We're more like milk

4:08

toasters of provocation. We're not that provocative. And

4:12

they had this scientist who was an extraterrestrial, so

4:14

he was kind of a dorkable. No, that guy,

4:16

yeah. It's really not. I need to

4:18

get out more. The only problem for me with going out

4:20

in the public is that the public is there. What

4:23

did people come up and ask you about? Well, okay,

4:25

you know what's happening to me wherever I am?

4:28

People are really generous and lovely. And that's one of the things. I'm

4:31

a glass half empty kind of guy. People

4:33

are so lovely in person that I can't

4:35

get over how fucking cancerous and toxic online

4:37

is. Mm-hmm. Because

4:40

I would think that the world is just

4:42

an awful place if I just looked at

4:44

the comments around content online. People

4:46

are so lovely in person. So, whenever you

4:48

speak and if you do okay, people

4:51

line up to meet you and be nice and get photos

4:53

with you. Every time

4:55

now this happens, someone comes up and they

4:57

look around and they turn dramatic pause and

4:59

then they have me sign your book. Oh!

5:01

And they think it's the funniest thing ever.

5:04

They think it's the funniest. They come up

5:06

with a signature page open and a pen

5:08

and then they look around for dramatic effect

5:11

and then they turn it around. They're like,

5:13

it's Kara's book. Oh, that's nice.

5:15

I'm just happy to be here. I'm having a wonderful time.

5:17

Good. I'm glad you're enjoying yourself. Well, we'll

5:19

come to Ted together. I think you would love it here. They

5:21

would love it. I bet they're a hundred. They do

5:24

not have me on stage. I've been there since the

5:26

beginning. I used to go in with the army. You

5:28

said that about Bill Maher and they keep inviting you back.

5:30

I have never been invited to Ted. Never.

5:33

Chris Anderson will hear this and he will invite you to

5:36

the beat next year. I will give you a doubtful Chris

5:38

Anderson will not. We have a long history. I doubt it.

5:41

Really? I love Chris. Yeah. I

5:43

think he thought of us as a competitor at Code.

5:46

I don't know. He came to Code. You know, I'm

5:48

happy. I spoke at a TedX for sure and that,

5:50

but that's organized by other people. Never will he have

5:52

me on stage there. I'm telling you, they do a

5:54

great job. I know they do. They do. There's

5:56

a whole patented Ted, patent kind of thing. I'd

5:59

like to roll with that. you in Vegas. I think it'd be kind of funny. I

6:01

still think the White House is better for us. I think

6:03

it's best going to White House too. I'm

6:05

intimidated by the White House. If you can show me around the

6:08

White House, I'll show you around Vegas. We'll come to Vegas.

6:10

I'm most ambitious in the really good restaurants here. I'm not

6:12

interested in the... You want to know the weirdest stage of my life?

6:14

And this is a true story. When my

6:16

mom was dying, you know, my mom

6:18

asked to die at home and I said, fine, I

6:20

have some flexibility in economic security. I will move to

6:23

Vegas. I moved in with her. And during the day,

6:25

I managed kind of her

6:27

healthcare and we watched Jeopardy and everyone, you know, everybody

6:29

loves Raymond to look at old photos. It was actually

6:31

a very rewarding, nice time in both of our lives.

6:34

And then at night, I would go down to

6:36

the strip and I would get shitty drunk with

6:38

strippers and a couple of guy friends I made.

6:41

It was a very strange part of the

6:43

time in my life. Anyways, that's my

6:45

Vegas story. Oh, my memories of

6:47

Asia are Tony Hsieh coming here and talking

6:49

to him about what he was doing. Oh,

6:51

he was building a community, right? And CES,

6:53

of course, getting stuck here with CES forever.

6:56

I've been to CES once and I didn't enjoy

6:58

it. Well, my good friend, I brought one time, I'll

7:00

do my Vegas story, I brought my friend Jennifer Beals,

7:03

who did Flashdance. And there's an actual game that

7:05

you play. Where they pour water all over you

7:07

after a dance? I don't know. It's a flat game,

7:09

which she was horrified with, but I took a picture

7:11

of her in front of it. But I kept telling

7:13

people she was a tech executive and everyone believed that.

7:15

I was like, yeah, she works for eBay. She's a

7:17

top executive, eBay. That's what I told. We

7:20

got her. Yeah, we had a good time. I

7:22

saw Casey in the sunshine down when I went to CES. That

7:24

was almost worth it. Okay. Vegas

7:27

memories for Scott and Cara. Anyway,

7:29

we've got a lot to get to today,

7:31

including Tesla asking shareholders to reinstate Elon Musk's

7:33

multi-billion dollar pay package. We knew that was

7:35

coming and moving to Texas from Delaware. And

7:37

NPR becoming the latest company to face dissent

7:39

in the newsroom. What a surprise. But

7:42

first, the TikTok Ban is back and

7:44

might be fast-tracked through Congress weekend. Ooh,

7:46

tricky little legislative move. Speaker Mike Johnson,

7:48

Who seems to have found a spine

7:50

a little bit, plans to bundle TikTok

7:52

legislation into a package that includes aid

7:54

for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The vote

7:56

is expected in the House on Saturday

7:59

if it passes. The package will go to

8:01

the senate for about and then head to

8:03

President Biden. The bill would give Tic Toc

8:05

and Company by stance two hundred seventy days

8:07

to die das the app still longer. The

8:09

President also have an ability to issue a

8:11

one time ninety days since since I said

8:13

interesting strategy as as. It'll be hard for

8:15

the senate's peel it off. They certainly could, but

8:17

they want. To get the thing pass quickly and

8:19

I know Johnson certainly does. and the people in

8:21

the senate want these formed else to go through.

8:23

He's under a of pressure from Marjorie, Tell a

8:26

Green and the rest the in gangs over there.

8:28

Lydia think what an interesting legislative to the

8:30

way to get it through faster. Well.

8:33

I'm I'm very focused on a few things

8:35

one or I would like to see aid

8:38

to Ukraine and Israel. I am I to

8:40

see if get our act together and support

8:42

our allies and push back on autocrats and

8:44

terrorism serve or is. And also just to

8:46

be fair, I could not be more different

8:49

around policy and speakers onsen. but a speaker.

8:51

The house is supposed to be largely an

8:53

administrative, not a political position and I think

8:55

you gotta give the guy some crowded as

8:57

he is doing his level best to get

9:00

shit done in the face of crazies who

9:02

have figured out they. Have some leverage so

9:04

they are absolutely they are going to

9:06

put my crazy on full display. It's

9:08

six, Senator Manson was in the news

9:10

a lot because he was the swing

9:12

votes. And you have these individuals who

9:14

are really sort of. Really?

9:17

Political opportunists and I liked the fact

9:19

that he saying you know, okay ticked

9:21

me off. Find us you want to

9:23

put two or three bullets in the

9:25

chamber and play Russian roulette. Fine. But

9:28

all the steaks threads about seats he said

9:31

he was in. Ours was finally to ask

9:33

the speaker and might yell at the republicans

9:35

to go through that again to i hope

9:37

this goes through a detector fan. I'm

9:40

actually very excited about this an.

9:43

In I've said all along the ban

9:45

I think will be passed and then

9:47

they will come to some sort of

9:49

accommodation with the White House. This is

9:51

an enormous of my opinion. The best

9:53

investment opportunity out there right now is

9:55

to go buy shares in the secondary

9:57

market of Tic Toc. Now into tears.

10:00

It's trading I think mm private markets

10:02

about two hundred and twenty billion and

10:04

the some share on actually cancel your

10:06

shares for a while or if you

10:09

die employees here's hoping to some restrictions

10:11

on its became and minuses in a

10:13

platform that to sending faster than Google

10:15

or Matter has huge revenues, huge profits,

10:17

global presence and it's trading at Assess

10:20

of Matters, trading the out and it's

10:22

trading at an aid that would Google

10:24

is trading at because of this overhang

10:26

of political uncertainty and I believe that

10:29

will be lifted at some point. So

10:31

anyway some are adding a super and

10:33

and what are your thoughts. I think it

10:35

in. I was surprised to see him on. Cnn. Mustang

10:38

sounding like a democrat. Or two nights

10:40

ago and now he's made. He decided

10:42

he should govern and realizes that Ukraine

10:44

else that the right in an introvert.

10:46

An interesting. Not. A

10:48

fan but nonetheless your own piece about

10:51

Russian disinformation amid the Republican party and

10:53

adding Johnson said have gotten that Nemo

10:55

and terms of his advantages Nobody that

10:57

the Russians and there's so much talking

10:59

points of our sattler in the Congress

11:01

on the right that is disturbing. You

11:04

know it's not even lights and answering

11:06

candidate, they're just take out and about

11:08

that in have to take. Them. System

11:10

in place since it's like repeating it

11:12

were. Taking our own family hostage. Have

11:14

you seen it is hearings on to

11:16

the impeachment A Joe Biden. It's being

11:18

run by the G. Are you their

11:20

primary witnesses of Russian spy? yeah and

11:22

also I saw in a some of

11:24

the outbursts entire sick at least come

11:26

up with. Crew. For set up the

11:28

neatest more their to stay in a coma. especially

11:31

when an idiot he is. I think

11:33

he's going. To fertility replace would be my guess

11:35

at for us to just stick with the

11:37

democrats as least a sound is and have

11:39

to do and who knows that he had

11:41

team guess Jeffries the can speak of s

11:43

I think they're gonna lose the house in

11:45

any way so he'll be put our business

11:47

or is sooner than that his friends minds

11:49

are selling and so it doesn't really matter

11:51

and the ads suspect the democrats will have

11:53

a solid little majority and they tend to

11:55

stick together that until do this kind of

11:57

a murderous past to each other. Several states.

12:00

The way he thinks he's totally unfair counts

12:02

best those are: Caitlin Clark is headed to

12:04

the At Wm be A to play for

12:06

the Indiana Seaver to see in the Midwest.

12:08

Owing this week's draft many are crying foul

12:10

and comes to what should be. Paid Clark

12:12

is set to run three hundred and thirty eight

12:14

thousand dollars of her for years of the base

12:16

salary is seventy six thousand dollars or her first

12:18

year. According. To the W N B

12:20

A collective bargaining agreements, the number one pick

12:22

in last year's and the A Draft that

12:25

sixty five million dollars for your contract money

12:27

Science that A San Antonio Spurs W M

12:29

B A players have been fighting for pay

12:31

equity for decades, many by internationally in the

12:33

off season to supplement their income as we

12:35

saw with Brittney Griner stays on. Clark is

12:37

also the scoring and viewership records and a

12:39

lot of these women sources that very suddenly

12:41

the really good numbers just of Tv pay

12:43

has not kept up. Or that said, some

12:46

of the numbers are really the is or

12:48

veering and on really. Heavy Duty should be

12:50

paid more but their Tv deals are in

12:52

place and it is what it is. I

12:54

think the only get sixty six million versus

12:57

epithelial. You know it's a it mean it

12:59

is. It just puts it into stark relief.

13:01

This is a big you know an amazing

13:03

regeneration player in at the same time a

13:05

hugely attractive media asset for everybody and says

13:08

adding Butkus but as because of the way

13:10

it was not way city or we will

13:12

the. Yard.

13:14

Out on the just as unfair I do

13:16

so men separately from the the fact that

13:18

the W M B A thus far has

13:20

not been a successful leagues And and so

13:22

it does about two hundred million revenue be

13:25

embedded as ten billion and above minimum wage.

13:27

We decided the marketplace is based on supply

13:29

and demand. I don't think the the connotation

13:31

here is it's are some systemic sexism going

13:33

on and I just don't think that's true.

13:35

I think the W M B A today.

13:37

If it's if you're upset about this and

13:39

start watching Wmv a damn says that I

13:42

tell people and also she will probably make

13:44

several. million dollars a year off the court

13:46

for sponsorships am sure to do for the

13:48

w m b a would you and bill

13:50

simmons and joe rogan to for podcast and

13:52

i think see is going to elevate the

13:54

revenues that a leagues is bringing much needed

13:56

attention the w m b a the bar

13:59

my son w So far Kara has

14:01

been a giant thought and as

14:03

a result they don't get any money and they don't have the money

14:05

to pay these folks and She's

14:07

going to the highest bidder and in

14:09

this industry with the current economics the

14:11

highest bidder is this There's their numbers

14:13

are getting very interesting the way you

14:15

say they're getting better much better I'm

14:17

very and quite good actually and probably

14:19

these TV deals will be better as

14:21

people start to really like watching these

14:23

things They'll make more money It's

14:26

you know, it's a bar. She's a bargain like

14:29

an amazing bargain She'll make it to the

14:31

money of course on you know, Nike

14:33

or whatever that her she'll know the

14:35

fortune with sponsorships And

14:37

she deserves it. I Doubt

14:39

she'll play internationally why damage herself, you know why

14:41

I do that. She'll make plenty of money, you

14:44

know I forget what she has State Farm or

14:46

whatever. She has a ton of sponsorships and she'll

14:48

get a ton more and it'll help The WNBA

14:50

in that regard, you know

14:52

You need players like Megan Rapinoe and

14:54

her and others to be call attention

14:56

because in that case They were doing

14:59

much better than the soccer man like in

15:01

terms of everything in terms of numbers viewership

15:03

and the soccer man got paid I mean

15:05

that was a slightly different situation

15:07

in this case just better ratings

15:09

But the ratings are excellent and we'll see where

15:11

they go and if they can well the under

15:14

18 Australian soccer team beat

15:16

the women's soccer team in the US should

15:18

they get paid more? No But this it

15:20

doesn't I'm talking about viewers you talking about just purely

15:22

viewership Megan Rapinoe is a star and so she made

15:24

more money I mean, she should make more money and if

15:27

the numbers are up they're up. It doesn't

15:29

matter of beating That's kind of a stupid

15:31

comparison. I'm sorry the connotation. Is it there's

15:33

something unfair here? Oh in the case of

15:35

the the soccer thing. That's a very different

15:37

case I think you actually I had a

15:39

row I don't know are the revenues for

15:41

women's soccer comparable to them. Yes. Yes Yeah,

15:43

I didn't know that yes much more so

15:45

in the numbers are higher and everything else

15:47

and it was that was a very different

15:49

Situation than this but hopefully these numbers

15:51

will go up and we'll see where it goes

15:53

But congratulations to Caitlin Clark, and I hope she

15:55

makes a ton of money from whatever Advertiser

15:58

she's a very wholesome funny,

16:01

she's bringing in the numbers, it should

16:03

benefit her over time. It'll be interesting

16:05

to see if her popularity and the

16:07

massive increase, I mean

16:09

to me the unfairness here is that

16:11

college athletes aren't paid. All the

16:13

old white guys at the NC2A and

16:15

the coaches make millions

16:18

and the young more

16:21

non-white people on the floor generating tens of

16:23

millions for the host institutions, we've decided that

16:25

that's pure to not pay them. That is

16:27

total bullshit. That really is unfair. You know

16:29

unfair that. Unfair that. They pay what they

16:31

make for these colleges. 100%. And

16:33

these colleges benefit. And there should be a

16:36

free market to bid on them. There's a

16:38

free market in the WNBA. What will be

16:40

fascinating is to see if her incredible talent

16:42

and popularity translates to the

16:44

WNBA because so far it hasn't with

16:46

both stars. We'll see. This

16:49

is what you need, these kind of players that bring interest. It's

16:52

not popular until it was, right? Kind of things in the United

16:54

States at least. In any case, speaking

16:57

of things that aren't worth it, Trump Media

16:59

stock continues to plummet but the company is

17:01

already announcing its next venture, streaming. TrueSocial

17:03

is launching a live TV streaming service

17:05

allegedly to focus on content that has

17:07

been canceled at the risk of cancellations

17:09

being suppressed. I wish some things

17:12

were canceled. Trump Media says it

17:14

tested the streaming service on its web and iOS

17:16

platforms for six months and has finished the research

17:18

and development phase. The company's stock is down 14%

17:21

on Tuesday. It's down

17:23

like crazy. It's getting down into, it

17:25

will be down into the sub $10

17:28

level very soon I think following

17:30

the stream announced. I don't know.

17:32

What are they just ... The next thing they're

17:34

going to be an AI company, I guess.

17:37

I don't know what to say. This is

17:39

just not a company, people. As Barry Diller

17:41

says, it's scam. It's scam to support former

17:43

President Trump to give him money. Yeah,

17:46

I agree. They're going to go, what

17:48

do they have? They have sort of an

17:50

exclusive on quote unquote Donald Trump. His affiliation

17:52

with it, they've created this weird vessel that

17:54

people who support Donald Trump have decided to

17:56

buy the stock and send it on sort

17:59

of a meme. stock. I

18:01

mean, even with an incredible drawdown on the stock

18:03

price, the company still has a $4 million market

18:05

cap on $4 million in revenue, so they're taking

18:07

it a thousand times revenue. It

18:11

really is a crazy town. And I'm

18:13

not even sure they're ever going to do this. First off, okay,

18:15

they have a lot of attention because he's

18:18

constantly in the news every day. They have

18:20

not shown any ability to run a business.

18:22

I mean, think about all the goodwill they

18:24

supposedly have. You think some of that would

18:26

translate to conservative companies wanting to advertise. We

18:29

have a bigger business than True

18:31

Social. Tazod is a much bigger business

18:33

than True Social on revenues, and they're

18:35

trading at $4 billion. So they don't

18:38

have competent management. They don't

18:40

have anything resembling a strong user base.

18:42

And they're like, I know, let's

18:44

launch in another medium. And by the way,

18:46

that medium is declining and struggling itself. The

18:49

news station does, I think they have fantastic

18:51

talent. It's not like they've attracted

18:53

a large viewership. So

18:55

this is a difficult business. I'm not even sure

18:58

they'll launch. I don't think they have the competence,

19:00

the content. I think they're doing anything to try

19:02

and say, hey, look over here, we should be

19:04

worth $4 billion. It

19:06

was down to $24 yesterday it

19:08

opened, and then now it's slightly up to $29. It's just their

19:12

troops are trying to rally around

19:14

Trump. There's huge declines, but everybody

19:16

is going down. I'm sorry.

19:18

There's been a lot of losses, so

19:20

it's going to go back up again.

19:22

But this is a Trump, he owns

19:24

60% of his shares essentially. This is

19:26

to help him. And you can make a

19:28

lot of move with just buying a small

19:31

amount. And I suspect rich people will do that

19:33

just for the loss leader. But

19:36

if you're not wealthy, please don't do this

19:38

to yourself. You'll lose money. You've lost money,

19:40

and you'll lose more, and you're a chump. Let

19:43

the rich people do it to support them or the

19:45

ones who have extra money, if that's what they want

19:47

to do. But you might

19:49

as well throw your money into the trash can

19:51

at this point. But I think what DJT or

19:53

Donald Trump media is about to become is I've

19:56

been thinking a lot about obesity and GOP1

19:58

drugs and how it's the virus that kills

20:00

more people than COVID and how we

20:03

ignore it because we have the industrial food

20:05

complex that gets you addicted to shitty, salty,

20:07

fatty food and then hands you over to

20:09

the diabetes industrial complex. So we've decided not

20:12

to in any way, you know, eliminate the

20:14

presidential fitness awards but tell people

20:16

who are, you know, have the fashion industrial complex

20:19

say to people who are hugely

20:21

overweight that they're finding their truth. I think it's

20:23

all about money. And if

20:25

you think about McDonald's, if you think about

20:27

PepsiCo, their company has been more than

20:29

that, they're basically obesity and disease. And as obesity

20:31

has skyrocketed and gone from 5% more of it

20:33

obesity to 9% from 30% obesity to

20:37

40%, these stocks are up 8

20:40

and 12 fold over the last 20 or 30

20:42

years. And I believe they're going

20:44

to crash as GLP1 drugs

20:47

help the most needy people in terms of body

20:49

mass index. I think the same may

20:52

end up happening here and that is

20:54

Donald DTT or two social might end

20:56

up becoming an index for Donald Trump's

20:58

popularity or polls as we move into the election.

21:00

I think when he up picks, you're

21:03

going to see the stock have a brief burst and when

21:05

he down ticks, it'll come down. I think it's about to

21:07

become an index for the polling. Oh, interesting. That's

21:09

an interesting thing. Well, look, if you don't have money

21:11

though, don't put your life savings into this, even though

21:13

I think you're probably a terrible heinous person, don't

21:16

throw your money at this, you know, if you're

21:18

doing this for yourself. Anyway,

21:20

please don't buy the shares if you cannot afford

21:22

them. If you want to play games with Donald

21:24

Trump, that's certainly right. But

21:26

it's not a company. It's not a company.

21:29

Okay, let's get to our first big story.

21:35

Tesla is asking its shareholders to reinstate

21:37

that multi-billion dollar compensation package for CEO

21:39

Elon Musk, the one that was rejected

21:41

by a Delaware judge as unfair earlier

21:43

this year. The board says it still

21:45

stands behind the pay package. Of course it does,

21:47

because they get paid and that a vote

21:50

in favor of it at the company's annual

21:52

meeting would, quote, restore Tesla's stockholder democracy again,

21:54

but they're pulling in all the right. I

21:56

can't believe First Amendment wasn't shoved in this

21:58

statement. will also be

22:00

voting on Elon's plan to move Tesla's corporate

22:03

home from Delaware, Texas. So it's moot. The

22:05

Delaware decision is what they said they were going to do. They

22:08

will do it. He'll get his money

22:10

back. They'll win on this one. Tesla

22:12

shareholders very much like Trump to social,

22:15

although Tesla's an actual business, still

22:17

will bid it up no matter what he does. So

22:19

they want to pay him. Maybe he's

22:22

worth it if the stock does well, if

22:24

he can turn around and get better cars

22:26

and get the economic prospects of Tesla doing

22:28

well. He's certainly capable of it compared to

22:30

Donald Trump. But the

22:32

argument seems to be they may not have been aware of

22:34

what was behind the creation of Pay Package, but now they

22:37

are. I think they will approve

22:39

it. I think most people think they will. Just

22:42

for people to be aware, Tesla's stock performance

22:44

has been more than lackluster in 2024. The

22:48

shares have lost 38% of their value so far. Elon's

22:50

Pay Package was worth $56 billion in

22:52

January. Now it's close to $45 billion. He

22:55

is the key man in this thing at this point.

22:57

It probably shouldn't be. He

22:59

wanted voting control back in January. He'll

23:01

get that probably. It's his company to

23:04

do with what he will, what he

23:06

wants to. I don't know. It's

23:08

capitalism. Nice to meet you. I

23:10

think that's right. I do

23:13

think his pay package will be reinstated. The

23:16

thing that Aswat Tomodar and my colleague at Stern pointed

23:18

out that made a lot of sense to me is

23:20

we see the headline number, $56 billion and $45 billion.

23:24

The delay, by the way, if he would exercise and sell

23:26

all his shares, I don't know if he was planning to

23:28

do that. It's costing $10 billion even if it's reinstated. But

23:32

that's the headline number. But when

23:34

they actually devised and awarded the

23:36

compensation package, it was on options

23:38

on stock when the stock was

23:40

far below this. Meaning

23:43

that if you valued his actual compensation

23:45

package when the award was made, it

23:47

was dramatically less than $45 billion.

23:50

As much as I hate to in any

23:52

way defend or acknowledge the point,

23:55

he wasn't paid for $45 billion. He

23:58

was given options much more than $45 billion. less

24:00

than that. And because the

24:02

stock skyrocketed, he's registered this

24:04

enormous windfall. So I'm

24:06

not sure it's entirely fair to say should

24:08

the board be paying him $45 billion. If

24:11

Vox gave us, let's

24:14

say, $10 million worth of options, options

24:16

that had a value of $10 million

24:18

and you value options based on their

24:20

upside, potentially using like the Black Scholes

24:22

method, and then Vox's stock went up

24:25

10x, our shares would probably be

24:27

somewhere between $100 and $200 million.

24:29

And people might say, well, these

24:31

podcasters aren't worth that. But that's not the number.

24:33

You look at the initial compensation or value of

24:36

the options when they were awarded. So I think

24:38

it'll be reinstated. And I do think it's a

24:40

little unfair to look at the headline number because

24:42

what we're not taking into account is the

24:44

fact that the stock skyrocketed after they

24:46

had the option. Absolutely. Again, I think the point

24:48

that Delano Accord was making is a

24:51

good one. This board is in his

24:53

pocket. And that's as many corporations are

24:55

FYI. They're particularly in his pocket. This

24:57

board benefits from him. They party with

25:00

him. It just shows corporate

25:02

boards. And this is a particularly very

25:05

compromised one that'll do his bidding. And

25:08

to me, that's the message here.

25:10

I think the Delaware Court is

25:12

right. And this terribly

25:14

compromised board has every right to

25:16

reward him because he's

25:19

it. He's the one, the

25:21

guy. Again, grotesque, and worth

25:24

it. The stock has been up under his

25:26

leadership. So they've all benefited. In

25:29

this case, they've all done very well with

25:31

whatever his antics may be. I do think

25:33

they're facing a lot of challenges,

25:35

as we've talked about. And I think we were

25:37

born out to be right even though we got

25:39

slapped by all the stands, which is let's look

25:42

at the company itself. The product is tired. The

25:44

toxic behavior is hurting the brand. There's

25:47

competition. And it's a tough market.

25:49

So that's really what people should be looking at with

25:51

this company more than anything else.

25:54

The Delaware Court is 100 Percent right.

25:56

They should go after everybody, every

25:58

company. This is just happens

26:01

to be the most egregious example that presumably,

26:03

but so far, year to date, the Tesla

26:05

is the worst performer. Zoc M E S

26:07

P N To me out of five hundred

26:10

Sox, it's the worst performing and also it

26:12

they had their biggest mess in terms of

26:14

estimates for vehicle delivery stamps, so I've into

26:17

stock has a long way to go down.

26:19

They've laid off ten percent of the workforce,

26:21

which is probably. It another

26:23

way the right move but it's

26:25

the hardest thing. About being

26:28

on a board I find and and

26:30

more broadly probably about management is compensation

26:32

is an innocence. It's okay, how do

26:34

we try and justify the compensation year?

26:37

What I do think this will have

26:39

an impact on his. I don't think

26:41

he's gonna be issued so many shares

26:43

that he controls the company or new

26:46

class A shares. I think that this

26:48

is basically sent a signal to the

26:50

board. see that there is other governance

26:52

and you can't says the ridiculous things

26:55

that are clearly off market. And

26:57

have been saying that internist. A gentle taste

26:59

or smell like a invalid sorry what's the sixes

27:01

and said the stats again he's done very well.

27:03

It's south and that at a year now I

27:06

do not have money on us That the problem

27:08

with this company is now it's that he has

27:10

not paid enough. It has to do with that.

27:12

It's. South Focusing on Twitter. Insult

27:14

this and get doing that a Cars it does

27:16

Actually doesn't even matter now because there's too much

27:19

competition. There's too much consumer sentiment against

27:21

it, and. It's it. doesn't matter He unless he

27:23

comes out with the best however enroll in a

27:25

matter how many jazz hands he puts around robots

27:27

axes. Or anything else. I would be surprised if

27:30

he can pull a rabbit and a half year

27:32

he had his time and this a deterrent, but

27:34

there's lots of the tar sands. And that's the

27:36

way to as he waited to eat. This is so inevitable.

27:38

What's happened to minutes of this. Story rather than

27:40

any non musk story. Anyway, let's

27:42

go on a quick break. We come. Back

27:44

we'll talk about newsroom, say some challenges from

27:47

within and take the listener mail question that

27:49

the pros and cons of do class shares

27:51

scary much in the news. Now with Paramount

27:53

that the of really weird stuff swirling around

27:55

Paramount. all these. Complex. Steals. This

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This is a paid advertisement. Scott,

30:53

we're back with our second big story. An NPR

30:55

employee has resigned in the aftermath of an

30:57

essay he wrote accusing the company of liberal

31:00

bias. Editor Uri Berliner

31:02

was initially disciplined with a five day

31:04

suspension for not getting approval to write

31:06

for another outlet. He's been going all over the

31:08

place. He's more promiscuous than

31:10

a Vegas madam in

31:12

that regard. Thank you for that Dan. Whatever,

31:14

I wouldn't do this. He

31:17

ultimately gave his notice saying NPR

31:19

CEO, Catherine Mars, the vis-a-vis

31:22

confirmed the issues he cited in his

31:24

essay, his sloppy essay by the way,

31:26

his sloppily edited essay. NPR management has

31:28

pushed back against the criticism and over

31:30

50 employees have sent a letter to NPR CEO and

31:33

editor in chief asking for a public review could be

31:35

essay. I wish she had done this too because it's

31:37

full of errors. Let's start with what

31:39

happened at NPR and then want to talk to

31:41

the bigger picture. I mean, he had a critique,

31:43

he can have that critique, a

31:45

fair critique that said full of errors,

31:48

NPR's Steve Insky, who I

31:50

would say, he's a very good journalist, shared

31:52

his reaction on sub-stacks saying, my colleagues articles

31:54

was filled with errors and omissions. Very easy

31:56

to pick apart that and I get it.

32:00

The focus is on his critique. It's

32:02

a liberal organization. Okay, does

32:04

that mean they can do their job or not?

32:06

Does it mean, et cetera, et cetera? When you

32:08

do a piece like this, you should get reaction.

32:10

If you wanna do this, if you actually pretend

32:13

that you really care about the institution, I

32:16

don't really know what this guy's game is

32:18

in any way, except he sounds like a

32:20

disgruntled, sloppy person. But it's worked, it's

32:22

worked, and it plays in the hands of the right, as

32:24

always. I don't let facts get in the way of a

32:26

good story. I think NPR should have

32:28

been much more aggressive. Talk a little bit

32:30

about your thoughts on this. Away from

32:33

NPR's liberal, I wanna, about this

32:35

particular incident. The bottom line is,

32:37

Kara, I don't feel like I have the domain expertise you

32:39

do here. The thing that strikes me

32:41

is, if it's national public radio, does that mean

32:43

they're getting government funding? Well, not very

32:45

much. Not as much as you think. Yeah,

32:48

it's like, what is it? It's like, you

32:50

know. It's tiny, I forget. I can look

32:52

it up, but go ahead. I've done- Yeah,

32:55

Planned Parenthood, or whatever, people don't realize they

32:57

really don't get these organizations, or they

32:59

don't get as much money from the government as they should.

33:01

And I always thought PBS, you just not take any government money.

33:04

Because when you do take government money, there is a legitimate claim

33:06

that you're supposed to represent the United States, or you have

33:08

some bonus to do that. If

33:10

they're a fully private company, they can have whatever

33:12

conservative or liberal bias that they want. So

33:15

I don't know if there's any veracity around this comment.

33:17

All right, so claims, NPR

33:19

may receive very little direct federal funding.

33:22

1% of its budget comes from government grants, including from the Corporation

33:24

of Public Broadcasting. Well, that wouldn't be good at zero.

33:27

Then they can just say, we can do

33:29

whatever the fuck we want. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

33:31

yeah. It receives,

33:33

things come indirectly to

33:35

it. The name itself feels like it

33:38

does, right? It does in that way, but it

33:40

doesn't. He said there are 87

33:42

to zero in the Democratic Party. That's not

33:44

true. He pulled stuff like

33:46

that. If you're a reporter, do your

33:48

fucking reporting, and tell us

33:51

the actual numbers of people. That's what

33:53

drives me crazy, is what a sloppy,

33:55

what a sloppily edited piece. If you want

33:57

to make these assertions, you can have these

33:59

opinions. You grumpy piece of shit.

34:01

Do your job. That's my feeling like all

34:04

right Do your job as Steven Skiep does

34:06

happen to be independent. Did he call a

34:08

Steven Steve? Did he call? I think you're being

34:10

emotional I'm not I

34:12

am being emotional cuz I hate shitty reporters

34:16

I just hate shitty reporters and great. I

34:18

think it's you know, it's tailor-made for the

34:20

right-wing Ecosystem led by Chris

34:22

Rifo to do his job. They found her I

34:25

hate Trump as a racist and by the

34:27

way Trump is a racist So it's factual,

34:30

you know, and by the way, if I'm head of NPR, I'm

34:33

happy to say that out in public

34:35

I love it. I absolutely love NPR. Yeah, so

34:37

more importantly more importantly because I find this boring

34:39

where he's staying in Vegas Sing

34:41

at the Aria, but let me talk about the larger

34:44

issue. No, we're gonna finish the discussion. I

34:46

agree I think this guy's is gonna be

34:48

doing his book angry angry. He act like

34:50

a victim when he quit whatever good luck

34:52

Good luck Gary be a better reporter This

34:55

is kind of a larger trend of newsrooms and companies

34:57

dealing with staffers who go public with their concerns

35:00

Google just fired 28 workers who participate

35:02

in sit-ins to protest the company's cloud-computing

35:04

contract with Israel that it was interesting

35:06

It's not just about Israel and Gaza

35:08

NBC at a rebellion with the Ronna

35:10

McDaniel hiring. What is going on

35:12

here? I mean, it's just all these workplaces again.

35:15

We're back to a couple years

35:17

ago. Same thing people having feels all

35:19

over the place What do you think we

35:21

had to put up with this ship when the labor market

35:23

was tight in the tech market and these folks That are

35:25

under the impression that that this

35:27

isn't the year of efficiencies. It's the year

35:29

of Oh God pretend that we care about

35:31

their feelings This isn't for me.

35:33

This isn't an Israel issue It's like look if

35:36

you want to have us sit out or protest

35:38

your own company and embarrass your own company You're

35:40

an at-will employee. They might fire you and that's

35:42

your right, but could you just keep in mind?

35:44

It's their right to fire you. Yeah, this is

35:46

their statement I thought was interesting physically impeding other

35:49

employees work and preventing them from accessing our facilities

35:51

as a clear violation of our policies and completely

35:53

unacceptable Behavior. Okay. Look I

35:55

don't I ran small companies is

35:57

someone peacefully protested and made

36:00

noise in the lobby about something we were doing. I'd

36:02

be like, that's interesting. You've made a good point. You're

36:05

fired. There are certain things you

36:07

give up when you sign the

36:09

backup checks and someone else is signing the front

36:11

of them. Yeah. And the

36:13

notion that you can be disruptive in any way

36:16

or even embarrass the company, you

36:18

might get fired. Yeah. I just don't,

36:21

on any issue. Google is pretty strong here.

36:23

It was interesting. They weren't before on

36:25

other protests. Well, they don't need these people

36:28

as bad. It's like, well, okay. There's

36:30

a ton of people laid off from Meta

36:33

and from all different tech companies. And so

36:35

we don't need to put up with

36:38

this childlike behavior of people who are under the

36:40

impression there's more demand for them than there is.

36:42

And also, to be fair, a

36:45

lot of these CEOs at tech companies

36:47

pretended to want to hear their

36:49

feelings about politics and said, bring your whole

36:51

self to work. Don't bring your whole self

36:53

to work. Bring your skills to work. Create

36:56

economic security for you and your family and

36:58

then protest on the weekends. And if they

37:00

do anything to get in the way of

37:02

that, then they should be in trouble. But

37:05

for God's sake, anyone showed up at one

37:07

of my firms protesting about anything maybe I

37:09

was vehemently in agreement with, it was in

37:11

any way a distraction, disruptive, or generally just

37:13

made the firm look bad. Oh

37:15

my God, that would be an easy one. I

37:18

would sit them down and say, I rarely mix

37:20

pleasure in business, but you're fired. I do support

37:22

protests, but if you've gotten away at people, it's

37:24

their thing. Just get another job if you disagree

37:26

and you just get another job. That's what you have to

37:28

do. I know you are all not going to like that

37:30

point of view from the two of us, but that's the

37:33

way it is, unfortunately. Okay, Scott,

37:35

let's pivot to a listener question. The

37:43

question comes from Diane. I'll read it. Hey,

37:45

Scott and Kara. Oh, you came first for the

37:48

first time. Long time listener, first time caller. I

37:50

want to know about dual class shares. Oh, we

37:52

know a lot about it too. In light of

37:54

what's going on with Sherry Redstone, Paramount, Apollo, and

37:56

the resignation of board members, I don't understand why

37:59

anyone would buy shares in a dual class

38:01

system. If you can't fire Mark Zuckerberg, what's

38:03

the point? With all the regulations and reporting

38:05

to be a publicly traded company, how did

38:07

this become a thing? Oh,

38:09

that's a longer story. Thanks for taking my question,

38:12

Scott. Keep telling the jokes. Most are eye rollers,

38:14

but I still love them. And Cara, you're obviously

38:16

fabulous, but you do interrupt Scott a lot. Oh

38:18

my God. No, I'm going to... Diane,

38:20

I'm going to give you the numbers. Give me... Email me.

38:23

Cara, don't switch it. No, that's volume of words, not

38:25

interruptions. Oh, all right, whatever. Because I have to, because

38:28

you won't stop talking. In any case, why don't you

38:30

talk about... I will talk very briefly about

38:32

dual class servers in that many tech companies have them,

38:34

but so does the New York Times. The

38:37

reason it was put into place for the good part

38:39

is so that venture capitalists or others couldn't take

38:41

over and they could do what they wanted. It's a

38:43

way to control the company with shares. Lots of companies

38:46

have had them for a long, long time. A

38:48

lot of people object to them. But

38:50

people who go into these companies know it

38:52

going in, who's making the investments. So in

38:54

that regard, that's why they buy

38:57

them because it would be great to

38:59

have invested in Facebook even if Mark Zuckerberg can't be

39:01

fired from a financial point of

39:03

view. So Scott, explain what's happening and specifically

39:05

talk about what's happening with Sherry Redstone. First

39:08

off, I don't know if you know this, but I went

39:11

to Vegas Cara and I married my best friend. And

39:13

for some reason, my wife was pissed off about it. Anyway.

39:17

Thank you, Kenny Youngman. Go ahead. Kiki

39:19

Green, I think. I'll be here all week. Try

39:23

the veal. Look, okay,

39:25

brief history. The idea of a dual-class

39:27

shareholder company was originally initiated or justified

39:29

by media companies, newspaper companies who said

39:32

we don't want the pressures of a

39:34

shareholder coming in and pressuring

39:36

our editorial viewpoint or coverage.

39:38

You can sort of rationalize

39:40

it, but at the end of the day,

39:42

it's for families that don't want economic control

39:44

that is attached or detached from the risks

39:47

they're willing to take with their own capital.

39:49

Now, what changed everything is when Sergey

39:51

and Larry said, I know we want

39:54

to pull the newspaper model and we

39:56

want to have dual-class shareholders so we

39:58

continue to control. Google even if

40:00

we own less than 50% and it

40:03

was a big battle and Finally

40:05

because there was so much money and so

40:07

much demand for Google stock that the investors

40:09

agreed to it and since then it's gone

40:11

Absolutely batshit crazy and every founder that now

40:14

has a decent amount of leverage and the

40:16

company looks to kind of be well received

40:18

in the market Investors hold their

40:20

nose and put up with a dual-class shareholder

40:22

structure It is generally speaking a

40:25

bad idea because it takes off one.

40:27

It's poor governance He can't fire Mark

40:29

Zuckerberg and to it immediately

40:31

soaks out The

40:33

takeover premium because at some point of

40:35

a stock gets too low Someone can

40:37

come in and buy the company or kick the

40:39

CEO out and that's not true here So

40:42

there are dual-class shareholder companies everywhere

40:44

reach modest dual-class shareholder everyone a

40:46

lot of people in Tech

40:48

have adopted this now having said

40:51

that having said that if

40:53

you actually look at the data Dual-class

40:55

shareholder companies stocks have

40:57

not underperformed Single-class

41:00

why because typically typically

41:02

speaking the companies that are

41:04

dual-class shareholder Are companies

41:06

that are doing so well that the

41:09

founders have a lot of control and

41:11

those companies have done really well case

41:14

in point Meta is

41:16

dual-class shareholder and it has been

41:18

an absolute, you know screaming

41:20

performer So I hate these

41:22

things I have direct experience with this I

41:24

raised 600 or 700 million dollars to become

41:26

the largest shareholder the New York Times Company

41:29

Got two of the five board seats awarded to the

41:31

common shareholders and basically what I figured out and I

41:33

knew this but I didn't Know it is

41:36

that we weren't really a board What

41:38

we were was a board of advisors and

41:40

then on any important issue The

41:42

Sulls burgers and the family would decide so for

41:45

example when we were raising 500

41:47

million dollars during the OA crisis we

41:50

ended up raising it from Carlos Slim Why was

41:52

it the cheapest source of capital that would be

41:54

best for shareholders? No, it was because the Sulls

41:56

burgers determine that Congress would never let a

41:58

Mexican on the New York Times So they weren't

42:00

a threat to their ownership stake and we took

42:02

money from a Mexican billionaire instead of

42:05

many to billionaires in America that would have given

42:07

us the money for less because

42:09

the Salzburgers were threatened by any domestic billionaire because

42:11

they thought at the end of the day you

42:13

want to take over the company. I

42:16

hate these things but at the end

42:18

of the day they have not underperformed

42:20

the market but it is a weird

42:22

whenever you separate economic risk from accountability

42:24

and control bad things happen. And

42:26

that's the reason it's thought

42:28

to be great is because Mark is doing great, a lot

42:31

of the tech companies but sometimes they just don't do great.

42:33

And in this case Sheri Redstone, she's

42:35

presided over since she took over from her father.

42:38

The numbers have gone down precipitously at the

42:40

company in terms of performance, in terms of

42:42

value. She herself has lost billions

42:44

of dollars and what it was worth and what

42:46

it was worth now. She's put in a CEO

42:48

that people are thinking has not run as

42:50

well, Bob Backish I think is that pronounced

42:52

it. But she's still in

42:55

the catbird seat so she can reject. So she's

42:57

been canoodling with David Ellison, Senator Larry Ellison and

42:59

they have this very – if you want to

43:01

read the back and forth, Bill Collins I think

43:03

doing the best job of what's happening here. It's

43:06

a back and forth of doing all these convoluted where

43:09

they buy – National Amuse and the

43:11

Swishii owns the controlling stake

43:13

in Paramount Global I think.

43:16

And so he's trying to buy that

43:19

and then Paramount Global will then turn

43:21

around and buy his company Skydance which

43:23

makes very successful movies like the Mission

43:25

Impossible movies, Top Gun 2, stuff like that. So

43:28

it'll buy it back. There'll be

43:30

some recapitalization of some sort that

43:33

looks like that or whatever,

43:35

decapitalization. Larry Ellison's around, hanging

43:37

around the basket. And

43:39

then David will take the shares in the

43:41

movie company. They'll

43:44

sell off a bunch of – they own a lot of ugly

43:46

theaters. Meanwhile, there's another competing

43:48

– there's very few people

43:51

wanting to buy this by the way, FYI. Apollo,

43:53

which is Season Opportunity, it's owned by

43:55

Mark Rowan, has made an offer but

43:58

she can reject that Apollo deal. deal

44:00

out of hand if she wants to. She's

44:02

doing better with the David Ellison one, but if

44:04

Apollo came up a little bit, it probably all

44:06

things being equal. I think Bill is recommending the

44:09

Apollo deal because it's a lot cleaner. Suddenly

44:12

Jeff Zucker is involved with Redbird, with

44:14

Cardinale who runs that. You know,

44:16

it's all these people machinating, and the Apollo

44:18

deal is pretty straightforward. And then

44:20

there's another investor, Marco Gabelli, who

44:22

will probably sue. There's all kinds of

44:25

people involved here. And so do

44:27

you want a messy one that Sherry does better on, or

44:29

do you want a cleaner one where she doesn't

44:31

do as well, but will probably remove

44:34

the idea of lawsuits against it.

44:36

And the third option, of course, is

44:38

nothing happens. Everybody walks away, and this

44:40

company just gets bought and

44:42

sold for parts at some point in the future. So

44:45

it's a bad example of a dual-class shareholder, correct,

44:47

Scott? That's exactly right. This is an example of

44:49

when things come off the track. So when you're

44:51

Google and everything's up and to the right, people

44:54

will put up with a dual-class shareholder structure because

44:56

everyone is winning. It's champagne and cocaine for everybody.

44:59

The problem is when shit gets real

45:01

and the business is failing and the

45:03

valuations are going down. Because there's two

45:06

things about the dual-class shareholder structure that

45:08

leak value from all shareholders to Sherry.

45:10

First and foremost, what you said, she

45:13

can just cross her arms and say, yeah, it's a good

45:15

deal. Maybe we're all going to get fucked, but I don't

45:17

want to sell the company, or I don't like the deal,

45:19

so I can just cross my arms. And

45:21

despite owning less than 50%, just say

45:23

no. Even worse than that, I would argue,

45:25

is what she can do is she can

45:28

hold a gun to the head of

45:30

the buyer and say, okay, you want to pay

45:32

us $10 billion. I own 20%.

45:34

So my stake should be $2 billion. Nope. I

45:37

want more money. So the buyer might go, you know what?

45:39

I don't care about the other 80%. So

45:41

Sherry, I will pay $4 billion for

45:44

your shares if you approve it, despite

45:46

the fact that would be valuing the

45:49

company at $20 billion, but the common

45:51

shareholders only get valued at $10 billion.

45:53

And that's what she's doing. She's saying, I don't give

45:55

a shit. I'm not a fiduciary for the other 80%.

45:58

I want extra

46:00

value for my shares to approve the

46:02

deal, which is nothing but

46:05

an additional $2 billion to her that

46:07

all shareholders should be split in. That

46:09

spells shareholder lawsuit. Actually the family

46:11

that owns Conde Nast did the exact same

46:13

thing when selling a cable asset. They

46:15

said, we're not going to approve the deal unless we

46:17

get more. And the owners or the

46:19

new bidders, instead of having to pay

46:22

double to everybody, they just have to pay

46:24

double to Sherry. This is

46:27

where it just comes off the tracks. And more than

46:29

anything, what this is a symptom of is

46:31

the fact that this business just doesn't have the

46:34

kind of bidders that they were hoping based on

46:36

the fact that this business is in structural decline.

46:39

Right. I would agree. I think if

46:41

this was doing well, it would be very, very different,

46:43

right? Correct? They'd

46:45

all be fine. We all like it when it's Mark Zuckerberg

46:48

because it's doing well. So he's doing a good job. Let

46:50

me just read Bill just very quickly. If

46:54

we're gaming this out there, and I must note

46:56

a number of people around the sales process suggested

46:58

to me half jokingly that Puck should get a

47:00

deal fee, that I'm thinking the Apollo deal may

47:02

be the best option after all, again, non-investment advice.

47:05

Sure, it's not as exciting as the Ellison opportunity

47:07

with all the bells and whistles and japs. This

47:09

would be Jeff Schall and Jeff Sucker running the

47:11

plays, et cetera. And yes, Apollo is

47:13

trying to buy Paramount at a low point. But

47:15

as low as Paramount is trading right now, it

47:17

can trade down further. Sherry would obviously

47:19

prefer the $2 billion that the Ellison is offering

47:22

over the roughly $1.25 billion that

47:24

she stands to make an Apollo deal. Right. So,

47:27

if Blair and Pheisa,

47:29

this is the independent

47:32

directors, Nick, Jerry, and David, she'll be

47:34

left with Backish and a publicly traded

47:36

Paramount and a pick preferred NIA,

47:38

that's national amusement, that's grown by 7.75%

47:41

a year. If

47:43

I were Sherry, I would authorize Trot to

47:46

start serious negotiations, that's her banker, to start

47:48

serious negotiation with Apollo to try to get

47:50

the firm to raise its offer toward the

47:52

Ellison-Jerry territory. The plot thickens and it's

47:54

getting nuttier than ever. So, you said

47:56

you thought they'd split the baby here in some fashion.

47:58

I haven't seen that yet. Yeah, I

48:01

just don't know. They're both,

48:03

Ellison and Rowan and the guy who

48:06

runs the media practice at Apollo, they're

48:08

very smart. And they're not

48:10

going to overpay for this thing. This

48:13

is just, it's dysfunctional. But

48:15

the thing is, and it's

48:18

hard to predict if someone's going to be rational or not, if

48:21

she doesn't close with one of these two, it gets

48:24

sold in 12 to 24 months for half the

48:26

price now. It's not an asset

48:28

that's going to grow right now in value.

48:30

So, but I agree with you. I

48:32

think Bill's done a great job. And

48:34

I think POC should open an advisory

48:36

business with conflict. They

48:38

should. They kind of do in a

48:40

lot of ways. Anyway, they do definitely take

48:42

a side. Sometimes I don't agree with those things, but

48:44

I think Bill has the most clear-headed vision of this.

48:46

Anyway, if you've got a question of your own and

48:49

you'd like answered, send it our way. Go to nymag.com/pivot

48:51

to submit a question for the show or call 85551

48:53

Pivot. Thank you, Diane.

48:56

All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll

48:58

be back for predictions. Support

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a show about jokes, is streaming

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now only on Peacock. Okay,

51:57

Scott, I'm going to make a very short prediction for you.

52:00

The email right? Accents? Telesis album's

52:02

coming out by the time disappears.

52:04

I suspect it'll be out on

52:06

the unsafe. Cowboy Carter is still.

52:08

In it isn't Number Top is making money

52:10

hand over fist. That women thing is is

52:12

still go and. I think it's systemic sexism

52:14

against mail country stars. Women are better at

52:17

ces attacks from had to sit albums into

52:19

the gigantic as it's good idea I don't

52:21

I know I think if he doesn't matter

52:23

if it's good yes it does Know she

52:25

went to censor gonna be it's gonna be

52:28

huge. Regard him as he is. But nonetheless

52:30

it it's good. It's gonna be huge are huge.

52:32

Her and the beyond say out and same things.

52:34

To do they would do I would Yoko Ono

52:36

and with a triple crown and critics. The day

52:38

and and but the on same thing

52:40

is doing great. By the way I've

52:42

listened to it's a dozen times. Reason

52:45

good So God is so Glare is

52:47

how fun is So interesting and and

52:49

beyond the new you know and Texas

52:51

hold em sandwiches. Just infectious. There's so

52:53

many good songs on that album. There's

52:55

so many really into sing songs and

52:57

not own. Them or country but a lot

52:59

of they'll have a country seal and I guess

53:01

that particular criticism but I don't give a fuck.

53:04

It's a great albums and by the way my

53:06

wife man is it isn't miss a music. Editor

53:08

and knows her were on music. First thought Texas

53:10

Hold Em wasn't all that and now she's like

53:12

I. Was wrong. This isn't fantastic song like

53:14

you know. Took a minute to really listen

53:17

to us by adding to sellers sit downs

53:19

gonna be a monster along with the on

53:21

say said the ladies for there's once again

53:23

along with Caitlin Clark and I think she's

53:26

got lasting power to buy the list. And

53:28

cliff hangers on a production of his

53:30

stating the obvious to detail as as

53:32

arms and we the bow If you're

53:35

like this story has suffered. Story at

53:37

the bar last night after the dinner

53:39

for Ted Mower. Chris Anderson is totally

53:41

totally tempting me out here. me he

53:44

army entertainment to the a very particular

53:46

site. Dismay understanding but go ahead anyway.

53:48

So I met this lovely young woman

53:50

who works at I mean it's called

53:53

Pivotal it's a Melinda Gates yeah that

53:55

you're from. focusing on women on businesses

53:57

as timeouts. me six i like you i loved

53:59

it but I hate it when you interrupt

54:01

Kara." I'm like, when I interrupt Kara? And she's

54:04

like, yeah, you interrupt her all the time. And

54:06

I'm like, oh, people usually

54:08

say that she interrupts me. But anyways,

54:10

I thought you would like that story.

54:12

Okay, anyways, prediction. I said

54:15

this last week. Trump, if

54:18

you look at Trump's become, or Donald J. Trump's media

54:20

or two social, whatever we're going to call it, it's

54:23

become a meme stock. And

54:25

I do think that valuation

54:28

is gravity. You can defy gravity for

54:30

a little while. When Michael Jordan jumps

54:33

from the foul line, he does look as

54:35

if, wow, this guy can defy gravity. At

54:37

some point, even Michael Jordan comes down to

54:39

earth. Every meme

54:41

stock has had its moment. And then

54:43

ultimately, it comes down to earth. All

54:45

of the meme stocks, AMC, GameStop, all

54:47

of them are off 90 plus percent

54:49

from their highs because they never made

54:51

any sense. I think that

54:53

might happen sooner rather than later here. And

54:55

my prediction is that within the next 60

54:58

days, it's a single digit

55:00

stock. I also think there's an outside chance

55:02

this thing goes to two or three dollars

55:04

a share that it lose 90% from here.

55:07

Because people, they may love Donald Trump, but

55:10

I do think at the end of the day, they

55:12

love their money more. And

55:14

also, if you look at Kahneman's work,

55:16

it's really interesting. This is Daniel Kahneman. Daniel

55:19

Kahneman, the behavioral economist who just passed away.

55:21

One of his great breakthroughs was loss aversion

55:23

theory. And it's really fascinating. In fact, I

55:26

read it a few years ago, and it's

55:28

when I decided to cancel all of my

55:30

insurance. By the way, I'm not recommending that.

55:32

I can do it because I can absorb

55:35

big losses. But essentially, the reason insurance is

55:37

the best business in the world is that

55:39

people would rather have a guaranteed series of

55:41

losses, of small losses, than

55:43

risk one big loss. And

55:46

we overestimate the likelihood of

55:49

extraordinary events. So insurance taps

55:51

into this behavioral flaw

55:54

on this basis, if you will. And

55:56

what I think is going to happen here is I do

55:58

think when people, no matter how much they like

56:00

Donald Trump have to consistently look

56:03

at something where every day they're losing or

56:05

every week 5, 10, 20% of their money. I

56:08

do think that's painful even if they like the guy. And

56:10

at some point they're going to go, am

56:12

I the idiot in the room? It's like if you walk

56:14

into a room and you can't figure out who the stupidest

56:16

person in the room is, that means it's you. And

56:19

I do think at some point people are going

56:21

to go, even though they thought, I like the

56:23

guy, I want to buy it, just the constant

56:25

ping, the constant cut of, okay, the

56:27

100,000, 10,000 bucks

56:30

I put into this thing, I lost $2,000 last

56:32

week. And I think

56:34

as soon as people start to vacate from this thing and

56:36

say, okay, I did my best, you're

56:38

going to see this thing return to earth,

56:40

similar to AMC or GameStop or any number

56:42

of meme stocks. So

56:44

anyways, my prediction, single

56:46

digits within 60 days and a non-zero probability,

56:49

it goes below 5 bucks a share in

56:52

that time. Yeah. Yeah, wow. Okay.

56:56

And again, it's just not a business. Let's just keep stressing

56:58

that to people. So buyer

57:00

beware, as they say. Okay, we've covered

57:02

a lot today. Where are you going next?

57:04

Where's your next destination? I'm

57:06

on a flight this afternoon to Orlando

57:08

to speak to a large hedge fund.

57:11

And then I go to New York

57:13

for my book launch next week. And

57:17

our good friend Stephanie Ruhl is hosting a

57:20

book thing for me and I'm going to be on,

57:23

you know, I'm whoring myself out to every meeting. I'm

57:25

doing a book event at Stern and Bradley

57:27

Tusk has this lovely little bookstore on the Lower

57:29

East Side. He's hosting a thing for me. I'm

57:31

doing a, you know, basically a book thing every

57:33

day. And then I go to LA

57:36

for Bill Maher and then I go back to Florida

57:38

for another hedge fund thing. The only people

57:40

that can pay my speaking fees now are all these hedge

57:43

funds. And then

57:45

I go home to London. So

57:47

I'm crisscrossing across the great country of North

57:49

America. By the way, Vancouver, third

57:51

most expensive housing market in

57:54

the world. And again, again, the rich

57:56

want to weaponize government to make it more expensive for

57:58

new entrants such as the US. the value of

58:00

the asset they already own, their own home skyrockets and

58:02

value, yet another transfer of wealth from the young to

58:05

the old, Kara. You're right. You know, although

58:07

there was a good story in the journal about luxury housing prices

58:09

being down quite significantly. Really? Yeah.

58:12

Can you send me that? Yeah. The

58:14

Wall Street Journal's doing a great job. Thank you. Just

58:17

a quick shout out. Okay. I'm

58:19

very excited. And I will talk about it next. We're

58:22

going to focus on your book next week. It's going

58:24

to be all about Scott and

58:26

the things in your book. A few of

58:28

my favorite things. Yes. We're going to make

58:30

it a section where we're going to talk about what's in your book and what you send

58:32

me your advice, et cetera. I'll do a little interview with you.

58:35

It'll be great. And it looks great. I'm

58:37

excited to read it. And my kids are both, both my kids

58:39

are excited to read it. I think all of that

58:41

was true, except for the last part. I really don't

58:43

think you're excited to read my book on financial security.

58:45

No, you're kidding. They read your book. Alex loves your

58:47

books. I don't care what you think they do. I wouldn't

58:50

tell you if they didn't. In any

58:52

case, that's the show. We'll be back on

58:54

Tuesday with more. And let's wish Scott a

58:56

wonderful book launch week. Thank you, Kara. Today's

58:58

show is produced by Larry Naaman, Zoe Marcus,

59:00

Travis Lartruck, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie

59:03

and Ritat engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew

59:05

Burrows and Neil Saverio. By the way, my entire

59:07

TED Talk was courtesy of Neil Saverio. Everyone is

59:09

so impressed with my talk and how much time

59:12

I put into it and all the data. And

59:14

the reality is I just show up, press play,

59:17

get all the credit, and Mia does all the work. So

59:19

thank you, Mia, and well done. Nishat Kurwa

59:21

is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure

59:23

you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to

59:25

podcasts. Thank you for listening to Pivot from New

59:27

York Magazine and Vox Media. You can

59:30

subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/hod. We'll

59:32

be back next week for another breakdown

59:35

of all things tech and business.

59:37

Hit the craps table and scream

59:39

out, mommy needs new shoes.