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On the case: Recession, formula, and greenbacks

On the case: Recession, formula, and greenbacks

Released Thursday, 9th June 2022
 1 person rated this episode
On the case: Recession, formula, and greenbacks

On the case: Recession, formula, and greenbacks

On the case: Recession, formula, and greenbacks

On the case: Recession, formula, and greenbacks

Thursday, 9th June 2022
 1 person rated this episode
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Episode Transcript

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it's planet many some and here

1:01

out there it was raining range year it was

1:03

set than other day and be a long

1:06

, of my coffee house up the

1:08

my elbows and cases to follow

1:12

follow that found it so

1:15

happens when it

1:18

many here today for me a question

1:23

Yeah, it's Planet Money. What's your mystery? Your

1:25

help with a very particular problem?

1:28

Is ratchet

1:30

phone. Yes, this is Planet

1:32

Money. What needs investigating? i have

1:35

a money mystery that planet money

1:37

could solve

1:40

hello and welcome the planet money america

1:42

barris just a detective dame

1:44

ready for the relentless pursuit of

1:47

your case and

1:49

so the sent our very best come soon

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to get to the bottom of the all your questions

1:54

that the suspenseful hard boiled keeper

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into the dark praised world

1:58

of economics are you know

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the planet money back

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You NPR.

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It's not easy,

2:57

being a detective for Planet Money every

2:59

day. I get questions from folks, just

3:01

curious as i and

3:03

these days there seems to be one

3:05

question that everyone's

3:07

worrying about

3:11

yeah i has and the syria

3:14

for so i have a question so

3:16

a question that i had regarding my i

3:18

don't know if there's any day dad's has served

3:20

as diverse as rather different indicators they're

3:22

coming would show what are the early indicators

3:24

of those and more browser that are

3:26

we headed far as i said you

3:30

are listeners wanna know we

3:32

in a recession are we not

3:35

how do we know so we

3:37

put be one and only married

3:39

out and the case

3:41

she found that sometimes the answers

3:43

lie in unexpected places

3:46

so the thing about calling a recession

3:48

is that it relies on indicators

3:50

the main one being gdp but

3:52

that is a lagging measurements many it

3:54

comes after the fact so we

3:56

could be in a recession for months but

3:58

we can't make laughter

4:00

mary there are earlier size you

4:02

found someone says she has the answers

4:05

because of a somewhat unorthodox

4:07

economic indicator

4:09

i went to an expert who has been doing field

4:11

research collecting empirical evidence

4:14

on her it leading indicator i

4:16

don't even know it's like and

4:18

are appropriate the same i handle there

4:21

are no swears and arm hi

4:24

i'm at reverse cowgirl sixty nine or

4:27

my eyes potentially them though

4:29

we're not using reverse cowgirl sixty nine

4:31

real name because her family doesn't know

4:33

about her job she is a stripper

4:36

in new york city and city and weeks ago

4:38

she did a viral tweet that says

4:40

strip club tips are leading indicator

4:43

of a recession and she would know

4:45

because she keeps a meticulous spreadsheet

4:48

of her weekly earnings

4:50

they started doing that because i wanted

4:52

so which outfits were working well and

4:54

i was like i need to know whether i'm crazy

4:57

or like this dress as a good dress

4:59

wait what dreck what was your best wrath of

5:01

a i have a wondrous or always or three well

5:03

it's a sparkly herbalists

5:05

metallic cut out dress that like just like under

5:08

boobs are like the main attraction

5:11

yeah and identify with my highest

5:13

earning draws on weekdays

5:16

it also thinking a lot about

5:18

current events like what's happening in the world because

5:21

it can have a really big effect on

5:23

how much she will make into any

5:25

given night you pay a house feet away

5:27

which can range anywhere from like sixty dollars

5:29

like two hundred dollars on it may so

5:32

it's like a always a gamble he always up

5:34

like think ahead of how the night's gonna be the before

5:36

you even go and

5:38

of course a planet money we love a good spreadsheet

5:40

let us she noticed that makes you think we're in a recession

5:43

so as with any industry there

5:45

are ebbs and flows to the calendar

5:47

year and reverse cowgirl

5:49

sixty nine told me that in new york

5:51

where she works january is

5:54

generally the worst ah it's right

5:56

after the holidays the weather is crappy people

5:58

just or hunkered down it only the february

6:01

things start to pick up a little bit more

6:04

and by march things are back to basically

6:06

normal getting into the good swing of things and

6:09

this year things were kind of following that

6:11

pattern you know january was roth said you're a

6:13

two and then march was

6:15

really shaky i know if it wasn't like him

6:17

increasing the way it was all right like it normally

6:20

increases like i have previous years

6:22

obviously it wasn't just

6:24

hurt either she told me that there's this great

6:27

camaraderie in the locker room where

6:29

the dancers all talk and counsel each

6:31

other and in march when it felt like every

6:33

night with kind of a wash the other women

6:35

would say hey it's not just you everybody

6:38

didn't make a lot of money tonight something

6:41

is going on

6:42

some of the order the answers were even saying

6:44

yeah this feels like

6:47

two thousand and seven because the high

6:49

rolling regulars though wales they're

6:52

not coming in as much any

6:53

when you start noticing i thought

6:56

the whales quote unquote a whale is like

6:58

the customer who is gonna spend a lot of money

7:00

when the whales start dying is

7:02

when rep you know the strip clubs in trouble

7:05

the we're in a recession wow

7:08

patrick leech and relievers as and

7:10

we need at least two quarters with

7:12

negative gdp growth and

7:14

so far we have one

7:16

the and according to reverse cowgirl sixty

7:18

nine it does seem likely are on track

7:21

for another so she would say yes

7:23

we're in a recession

7:24

that's right folks he hardly hear when strip

7:27

said start lack in gdp disconcerting

7:30

thank you so much marry kill one

7:33

down anymore to go to my character

7:38

for my next case i had a handful

7:40

of clues and curious

7:43

question hey

7:46

printing money

7:47

recently he come from brookline i'm

7:50

ten years old i in

7:53

why dollar bills green and

7:55

why do other countries have different colors

7:57

for different amounts we don't yeah

8:03

the pondered this question is slowly

8:05

swivels in my chair then

8:08

the not on

8:10

the door the shadowy

8:12

figure long was character

8:14

from the past

8:16

if the hostess podcast now is off

8:18

hosts and a show called let's a problem jacob

8:21

goldstein eric a bears the

8:24

jacob this is a big question one

8:26

i've often wondered about why

8:29

is our money

8:29

mean so at the green dollar

8:31

goes back to the civil war back to

8:33

the mid eighteen hundreds and at the time

8:36

it was actually a a weird rare

8:38

thing for the government to print paper

8:40

money's what was normal at the time was for private

8:43

banks to print paper money okay

8:45

yes and insects in

8:47

the decades before the civil war there

8:49

were actually thousands of different

8:51

kinds of paper money in the united states printed

8:54

by private banks all across the country

8:56

it's a in a came in all different colors

8:58

you know there was orange money as yellow

9:00

money and some of it had pictures of wales and some

9:02

of the had answers of bankers and wales anything

9:04

everything it was a wild money

9:07

era okay then

9:09

we get to the civil war the government

9:11

needs money to pay for the war and so

9:13

they do what governments do when they need money they

9:16

printed it they decide on this

9:18

temporary emergency money on

9:20

they're going to print the back wait

9:23

for this is our big moment they're going to arrest

9:25

the back in green the

9:28

and in that people called

9:30

these bills greenbacks

9:33

i guess is still technically slang for dollar

9:35

bills you might hear some likes grizzled

9:37

detectives talk about your noses and thirty three

9:39

greenbacks i hear that all the time

9:42

ah why green

9:44

the a cab fare questions ah

9:46

clearly part of it was anti

9:49

counterfeiting you know black and white

9:51

photography was emerging at this time

9:53

rights with the printing is all in black and whites

9:56

you can make counterfeit bills us

9:58

with a camera and so by printing

10:01

the backs in green it was harder to counterfeit

10:04

also apparently green it's a just

10:06

worked what like it didn't rub off it it worked

10:08

well as in four months a half

10:11

so for those reasons we wound

10:13

up with green money it wasn't

10:15

zach temporary money it went away and

10:17

then we get to the nineteen

10:19

twenties or by this time

10:21

we have the federal reserve's us year

10:23

old central bank the sad part of them in in the late

10:25

twenties they come out with this new

10:28

series of paper dollars

10:30

and that is the money that is

10:32

boring uniform in size

10:35

green that is the money

10:37

that looks like the money we have now okay

10:39

so that explains how we got

10:40

money but why don't we teens it now

10:42

to something more multi colored that's a lot

10:45

the other countries have done yet so fun

10:47

why don't we yeah well

10:49

one idea for why don't we is

10:52

the dollar really is a global

10:54

currency much more than any other money

10:57

or in fact the value of of

10:59

us paper money outside the u s is

11:01

greater than the value of paper money

11:04

inside the u s size and you know that's

11:06

good for united states it gives us

11:08

a kind of power and so you know

11:10

we don't wanna like mess with have hit like it's

11:13

not broken so it's a brand essentially

11:16

and i'll go they have good brand yeah yeah

11:18

but wait ah sounds

11:20

like the end but there's one really

11:23

interesting thing we haven't talked about yet okay

11:26

i asked you to bring a ten

11:28

dollar bill or did you do have

11:30

one i'm going to find a ten dollar bill and here

11:33

hundred and two of has given up for

11:35

case i'm looking at it now okay

11:37

what color

11:38

then it actually to me looks kind of cream

11:41

colored there's a flame

11:42

yes a flame there's a fling at what color

11:44

is the flame that's

11:46

hank planet read his death

11:48

read is yeah also to the right of

11:50

hamilton a reddish we the people the

11:52

that pill so there's

11:54

no with the it is green on the back i

11:56

should say there's green pentagon the backs of destiny

11:59

that's what it is

12:00

it is a peach colored bill with read

12:02

on it and if you look

12:04

at other denominations

12:07

issued over the past more than a decade

12:09

now all these colors have actually

12:11

been sneaking onto dollar bills and

12:13

sort of we didn't notice like frankly

12:15

to be honest i didn't notice i've been covering this

12:18

verse more than ten years and until i

12:20

was working on this i assumed would dollars were

12:22

green like that always and they aren't just

12:24

green anymore said us government's been sneaking

12:26

color onto our money and we never even noticed

12:29

what else are they say that with okay

12:34

thank you so much for joining us oh so

12:36

find a comeback

12:42

and we'll be back to solve a few more mysteries

12:45

right

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a sea of red light blinking on

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the michigan

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james miller of yeah calling from lead massachusetts

13:52

i have a question my wife

13:54

is pregnant with our first child we're

13:57

good pretty worried about the current baby formula shortages

14:00

i was surprised to hear that there are only four

14:02

major suppliers of formula in the us

14:05

at all the question is this

14:08

the new explain how or why the market

14:10

has consolidated down to only four companies

14:13

thanks

14:15

and to answer your question i have whale

14:17

and long as a host at the indicator

14:20

on the case hey whalen

14:22

at your service eric as or eight so question

14:24

number one which is something i too

14:26

was wondering about when this all started happening

14:29

how on earth and the age of the baby industrial

14:31

complex and sets a wildly competitive

14:34

marketplace did this monopoly

14:36

happen

14:37

you have to go back to the eighties this is

14:39

a time when the government was really worried

14:42

about families being able to afford

14:44

formula the cost of formula was rising

14:46

very quickly so through this

14:48

program called wick women infants

14:50

and children right exactly it's a government

14:53

nutrition program they try to make

14:55

formula more affordable and

14:57

a way they didn't would fundamentally

14:59

changed the landscape of suppliers

15:01

that we have today because the

15:04

with the program is run by each

15:06

individual states and each seats

15:08

program as formula manufacturers

15:10

to submit bids which ever company

15:12

offered the biggest discount thought the sole

15:15

source contract so you get

15:17

the entire states with market and basically

15:19

total market dominance okay why

15:22

is that well so

15:24

grocery stores would dedicate the most

15:27

to sell space you whatever formula branch had

15:29

that sole source contracts and then

15:31

non which shoppers would end up by matt

15:33

brand to because that's all they saw

15:35

when they went to the grocery store so thanks

15:38

to this spill over a fact the wick

15:40

system of awarding sulfur contract

15:42

ended up reading this winner takes

15:44

all market for formula in each state

15:47

so like a state allowed monopoly set

15:49

up from the eighties is the reason we have sworn

15:51

it is today exactly

15:53

and actually it's gotten even more concentrated

15:56

because states now band together and

15:58

so for example i have a group of

16:00

twenty four states that all pick the

16:02

theme exclusive formula manufacturer

16:05

because it's like collectively they get an even

16:07

better deal so i'm it's like a

16:09

winner takes twenty four you know right

16:12

thanks to being on the case one any

16:14

time paris

16:21

then we've been closing cases left and right

16:24

but there's one case last they

16:26

blanchard

16:27

that for as will if it you know sometimes

16:29

we'll get questions and was be like oh

16:31

yeah like i've always wondered that same

16:33

thing all the time this is not one

16:36

of those questions okay

16:39

what a money this randy so simple livermore california

16:42

have you ever noticed there are not numbers

16:44

on us coins instead we spell

16:46

out once and five cents and quarter dollar

16:49

so plan and money maybe you can solve this

16:51

important mystery

16:54

though i'm like randy i'd literally never

16:56

notice that coins only have written out numbers

16:58

but we are here to serve this is

17:00

a listener questions episode and so

17:03

on since we've got a few seconds of recording

17:05

yeah i called up dennis tucker

17:07

sees numismatist which

17:09

means he stays coins and money and

17:12

he's been looking into this for us so was

17:14

there a single person responsible

17:16

for written out numbers on coins you

17:18

have a culprit as

17:22

well i don't know if know if call him a culprit

17:24

but disease or certainly i had a character

17:26

of note and his name is christian

17:29

go christian chris in

17:31

go brecht christian go over access

17:33

rights he was born in

17:35

the seventies eighties the seventeen

17:37

eighteen so this story goes back nearly to the

17:39

founding of the country christened

17:42

go back to the time was growing up in pennsylvania

17:45

and even when he was a kid we

17:47

a journals and sketchbooks

17:49

from that period the show the he was really pretty

17:52

talented and if

17:54

you happened to be an artist in philadelphia then

17:57

you would catch the i have meant officials as he

18:00

did the correct goes to work for them and he

18:02

doesn't get the job he really wants which is chief

18:04

engraver he does get a job

18:06

as second engraver and go brecht

18:09

is not just an engraver

18:11

he's an engraver who also happens

18:13

to be an artist it's during

18:15

this period that go brecht starts

18:17

to come up with all of these coin designs

18:20

that are radical departure from

18:22

what others before him had done so

18:24

before go brecht american coins

18:26

had these seeing more more

18:28

traditional designs think like roman

18:31

busts engraved on coins

18:33

they were usually a woman in profile

18:35

she's the personification of liberty

18:38

go back to had a different vision his

18:41

design was fresh it will it was knew

18:43

it was a a full figure of liberty

18:46

you don't see seated and she's very much in control

18:48

of her destiny and her surroundings

18:50

she has flowing robes

18:53

this casual posture it's kind

18:55

of livelier and the mint

18:57

totally embraces this before long literally

18:59

every silver coins in circulation

19:01

has this new liberty seeded

19:04

design as it was known and every

19:06

american would have used these coins and

19:09

more to the point of our listener randy's question

19:12

there was another radical departure

19:14

in go breaks design

19:16

how the numbers are written if if

19:18

you look at the way the denominations are spelled

19:21

for for gold bread

19:23

it was a combination of numerals

19:26

and abbreviated sent signs for

19:28

example so a half time

19:30

which was a denomination back monday are

19:32

would have been five see period

19:35

go , a change that to halftime

19:37

spelled out now a lot has been lost

19:39

to history and we don't know why go brecht

19:42

made this change dennis doesn't

19:44

want to speculate too much skill he's a please

19:46

proper historian yeah

19:48

the theory

19:49

brecht didn't get the job he

19:51

wanted remember he's only the second

19:54

engraver maybe some of his

19:56

artistic innovation of was a

19:59

weed the

20:01

strike back at that and just kind of

20:03

say this is what i'm capable of doing

20:07

i'm i'm not your grandfather's coin designer

20:09

you know i'm a modern man i'm a modern artist

20:12

and here's how i'm going to interpret

20:15

modern coinage

20:16

and you know his legacy is now lasted

20:18

for some two hundred years like

20:21

to go look at some change the written out

20:23

numbers on those coins that

20:25

go brecht but there's this

20:27

twist a new set of quarters is

20:29

beginning to be released honoring american women

20:32

so like my angelo sally ride and

20:34

, mint is allowing the artists who designed

20:37

these quarters to go with a numeral

20:39

design if they want to to that

20:41

happens it'll up and nearly two

20:43

centuries of tradition that started with

20:45

christian go practice in some

20:47

ways that seems feels seems

20:50

at a no go brecon

20:56

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in it money today's episode

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