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When I grow up, I'm gonna be a

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veg-ter... Veterinarian?

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That's awesome. And I'm gonna be what

0:06

you said we need more of. So

0:08

you want to be a plumber-narian?

0:11

Do you think I can? I

0:13

think that if you work really hard, you

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can be anything. Promise? You bet I

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0:32

lot of debate out there on what to

0:34

put on your Johnsonville brat. Sauerkraut. No sauerkraut.

0:36

Peppers and onions. No peppers and onions. Or

0:39

maybe peppers, but no onions. But

0:41

what kind of peppers? And then mustard. We

0:43

doing brown spicy, or are you gonna go amateur hour?

0:46

And then ketchup's its own situation, which, by

0:48

the way, is absolute heresy. But

0:50

here is the beautiful truth. Johnsonville don't

0:52

care. If people are debating relish, bun, or no

0:54

bun, at least we're all talking and sharing again.

0:57

And yeah, the ketchup's a personal choice. Keep it juicy. We

1:07

are not choosing our champion. We're

1:10

choosing our opposition. We're

1:12

not choosing Trump over Biden. We're

1:14

not choosing Biden over Trump. We're

1:17

making very strategic, calculated analysis about

1:19

who's going to put more food

1:21

on our table. Moreover,

1:23

we're choosing the landscape upon which we're

1:25

going to fight. We're asking

1:28

ourselves critical questions about which one

1:30

of these structures is going to

1:32

result in the best wins, the

1:35

greatest advancement for our people. Black

1:38

men chase after no one. We

1:41

lead. We build. We

1:43

grow. But in order

1:45

to do that, we must be heard. John

1:49

Taylor is a co-founder of the Black Male Initiative,

1:52

an organization based out of Georgia that's

1:55

all about empowering Black men through grassroots

1:57

organizing. We called him up to

1:59

ask what's happening with Black men. voters this election cycle,

2:02

a question that seems to be confounding almost

2:04

everyone in politics right now. Since

2:07

the Civil Rights Act, black voters have

2:09

supported Democratic candidates more than any other

2:11

group of voters in America. That

2:13

was true again in 2020, when

2:16

increased black turnout in states like Georgia made

2:18

all the difference in a race that was

2:20

decided by about 40,000 votes. But

2:23

since 2020, there have been some

2:25

warning signs that Democrats may be

2:27

losing support among the party's most

2:29

reliable constituency. In the

2:32

2022 midterms, black

2:34

turnout declined by nearly a quarter

2:36

compared to the 2018 midterms. And

2:39

right now, even some of the

2:41

highest quality polls are showing Biden losing

2:43

support among black voters, especially

2:46

younger black voters and younger black

2:48

men. The latest

2:50

New York Times said of battleground polls

2:52

found more than one in five black

2:55

swing state voters say that they're even

2:57

open to voting for Donald Trump. Could

3:00

that really be true? Or

3:02

is it just a bunch of noise in an election where

3:04

most voters still aren't tuned in? That's

3:07

what we're going to try to figure out in this episode. And

3:10

more importantly, we're going to talk about

3:12

the most effective way to persuade black voters who

3:14

still haven't made up their minds. Because

3:17

even if they're a smaller group than the polling

3:19

suggests, Joe Biden and the

3:21

Democratic Party can't afford to lose many

3:24

votes from anyone anywhere. And

3:26

that's even more true if they lose those

3:28

votes to Donald Trump. Of

3:33

course, you may be wondering, why on

3:35

earth would that happen? Here's

3:37

John Taylor again. We are not

3:39

a monolith. All brothers don't vote

3:42

together. We have varying interests. But

3:45

with brothers again, all of a

3:47

sudden, the fear is somehow

3:50

Trump's antics, somehow

3:53

his misogyny, somehow

3:56

his paternalistic patriarchal

3:59

being. Yes, appeals

4:01

to black men. And

4:03

you gotta ask yourself, why is that

4:06

what you think black men are interested

4:08

in? Because it's

4:11

not. Will there be black men voting for Trump?

4:13

Yes. But if

4:15

they vote for Trump, it's not because

4:17

he appeals to them, it's because the

4:20

narrative about where economics are coming, where

4:22

jobs are coming from, where access

4:25

is coming from, where we're gonna

4:27

get the best possible opportunity to

4:29

feed our families, that

4:31

narrative is being pumped out in

4:33

the streets as if somehow Trump

4:36

is an economic savior. Maybe

4:40

you understand this sentiment. Maybe

4:42

you're bewildered by it. Either

4:44

way, it's a reality we have to deal

4:46

with if we wanna beat Donald Trump. And

4:49

grappling with that reality requires putting ourselves in the

4:51

shoes of voters who, for whatever

4:53

reason, just don't follow politics as

4:55

closely as we do. And

4:57

in the case of many young, black, struggling

5:00

voters, it requires putting ourselves

5:02

in the shoes of people who just

5:04

haven't seen the system work for them

5:06

no matter who's in charge, Republicans or

5:08

Democrats. And it's up to us to

5:10

convince them otherwise. Show

5:12

me how black people survive. And I'll

5:15

show you who black people will vote

5:17

for. And if progressives wanna

5:19

win, they have to do the

5:21

hard work. John's

5:23

right. And that hard

5:25

work involves reaching out, listening and knowing

5:27

what to say to undecided black voters, some

5:31

of whom may very well be your friends,

5:33

your family, your coworkers, or your neighbors. And

5:36

that's why I wanted to talk to two people

5:38

who are absolute experts on this topic, Democratic

5:41

pollster and political strategist, Terrence Woodbury

5:44

and Michigan Democratic Party Chair, LaVora

5:46

Barnes. You'll hear our conversation

5:48

next, followed by more from John Taylor

5:50

on what lessons we can learn from

5:52

the work his organization is doing on

5:54

the ground in Georgia. I'm

6:00

Jon Favreau. Welcome to the wilderness.

6:07

Terrence Woodbury and LaVora Barnes, thanks for being

6:09

here. Thanks for having us. Happy to

6:11

be here. So this season, we're

6:13

talking about the most effective ways to

6:15

persuade voters who we need to beat

6:18

Donald Trump, but aren't yet sold on

6:20

Joe Biden. And I wanted to talk

6:22

to both of you about black voters.

6:24

We of course know that black voters have been

6:26

the most democratic leaning group of

6:29

voters for decades, now, and that has

6:31

not changed over the last

6:33

several elections. That said, there

6:35

have been signs in both election results and

6:37

polling that a potentially decisive

6:40

number of black voters who've

6:42

supported Joe Biden and

6:44

Democratic candidates in the past may not do

6:46

so in 2024, either because they're considering voting

6:50

for Trump, a third party candidate, or sitting

6:52

this one out. And these voters

6:54

appear to be disproportionately younger

6:56

and male. Terrence, you've

6:58

conducted countless focus groups with black voters

7:01

in your work with Hit. So you

7:03

probably have a better picture of what's

7:05

going on than almost anyone. LaVora is

7:07

chair of the Michigan Democratic Party. You

7:10

guys have had a historic string of victories

7:12

since 2018 and

7:14

also have a really good story to tell

7:16

about black turnout, especially in the 2022 midterms.

7:20

So let's start there. How

7:22

did you all manage to have a

7:24

smaller drop in black turnout than

7:26

almost every other battleground state in

7:28

the midterms? Well, I'm going

7:31

to chalk it up to the fact that we've

7:33

been working in those communities all the time. We

7:35

don't just show up on election day or in

7:37

the months leading up to election day. We're there

7:39

all the time. We're on the doors. We're in

7:42

the neighborhoods. We're in the barbershops. We have community

7:44

offices open that stay open. We have staff that

7:46

stays on staff who lives in those communities. So

7:49

this is not a party that shows up at the end. This

7:51

is a party that's there all the time. Talking

7:53

about learning about listening to folks talk about

7:55

the issues that matter to them and then

7:57

pointing directly to the work Democrats have done.

8:00

to address those issues. It's a conversation that we think

8:02

you have to have all the time, not

8:04

just near the end and not just because there's an election on the

8:06

ballot. So we do it all the time. We're doing it now and

8:08

we're going to keep doing it. And what

8:10

are the big challenges that keep you up at

8:12

night when it comes to November?

8:15

Oh, so many of them. So many. You

8:17

know, I always worry about turnout. It is just a fact

8:19

of life when you're a state party chair that you're going

8:22

to worry about whether or not the folks you need to

8:24

get out the door are going to get out the door.

8:27

We now have some of the best voting laws

8:29

in the country. So we know that we've given

8:31

people all of the access and all the ways

8:33

to get to the polls and get their election

8:35

taken care of and get their votes counted. We

8:38

just need to do the work to get it done. We're ready to

8:40

do the work. We've got people fired up to work hard and we're

8:42

going to do it. Terrence, obviously

8:44

there are many differences in how different

8:46

groups of black voters view politics. Some

8:48

of those differences fall along lines of

8:50

age and gender, as I mentioned, but

8:53

you've gone beyond simple demographics to understand

8:55

how different groups of black voters see

8:57

politics right now. Can you talk a

8:59

little bit about that? Absolutely.

9:01

You know, when we look past

9:03

the simple demographics and begin to

9:06

cluster black voters by some

9:08

shared characteristics and values, we've

9:10

identified and hit strategies,

9:13

five key black voting segments. One

9:15

is this black civil rights voter that a lot

9:17

of folks think of. This is the

9:19

most likely voter in the electorate. They're over the age

9:21

of 50. They are the

9:23

most likely voters and the most likely Democrats. But

9:26

then you have these other two groups

9:29

in the middle that if you just

9:31

look at them by demographics, they look

9:33

very similar. This next gen optimist who

9:35

is very similar to the rightful cynic,

9:37

they're all under the age of 50,

9:39

they're all black, but their attitudes about

9:41

politics is so different. The next gen

9:43

optimist has missed half of recent elections

9:46

because they just didn't know they were happening. They

9:48

think they vote in every election. They tell us

9:50

they vote in every election, but they didn't know

9:52

half of them happened. Unlike the

9:54

cynic, John, who has also missed half

9:56

of the last of recent elections, but

9:59

it's not. It's not because they forgot. It's

10:01

because they hate Democrats, they hate Republicans, they hate

10:03

the system, they hate all

10:06

of the institutions that have failed them. We've

10:08

heard this rightful Senate group often referred to

10:10

in the media now as double haters because

10:14

they hate both candidates. Well, the fact is they

10:16

hate institutions that have failed them. And because of

10:18

that, they are more likely to swing in and

10:20

out of the electorate or to swing

10:23

across partisan lines. And that is what we have

10:25

to solve for in this election. It

10:27

sounds like the first group you talked about

10:30

is much more of a traditional turnout

10:32

challenge reminding them when the election is,

10:34

letting them know what's going on, just

10:36

giving them good information. And

10:38

then the second group is much more of

10:40

a persuasion challenge, it sounds like. That's

10:43

exactly right. We have to both convince them

10:45

to vote in this election and convince them

10:47

to vote for Democrats. They don't fall in

10:49

the ideological lines that many of

10:51

the other black voting segments do. And so

10:53

we have to give them a reason to vote and to vote for

10:56

Democrats. Considering what you've heard in

10:58

your focus groups, how concerned,

11:00

just an overall question, how concerned are

11:02

you at this moment,

11:04

five months out about Joe

11:06

Biden's support among black voters? Look,

11:09

we have seen some erosion from Joe

11:11

Biden's 2020 black voters

11:13

support level, specifically amongst younger black

11:16

voters. You mentioned this, John, that

11:19

the gender gap amongst black voters has

11:21

in fact shrunk since 2020. And

11:23

now the gender gap is only about four points.

11:25

The difference between how many black men are supporting

11:27

Joe Biden compared to how many black women are

11:29

supporting Biden is only four points. The

11:32

generation gap between young black voters

11:34

support for Joe Biden and older

11:36

black voters support is 40 points.

11:39

That is where I am the most concerned because

11:42

those young voters are emerging

11:45

as the largest voting

11:48

bloc, even though they remain the least likely

11:50

voters. LaVora, what about

11:52

you? Are you hearing and seeing similar

11:54

concerns on the ground in Michigan? Yeah,

11:57

I will tell you, we've got a whole group of.

12:00

of young black folks who work for this party

12:02

and who are working on our campaign, working

12:04

hard to talk to their colleagues, their friends

12:06

about the importance of this election and about

12:08

the issues. And yes, there is

12:10

definitely a gap in knowledge, a gap

12:13

in understanding, a gap in desire to

12:15

participate among the young folks. And

12:17

one of the things that our folks are doing is

12:19

like finding different ways to get in the room with

12:21

these folks wherever they are. If that means a dance

12:23

party, then let's have a dance party, right? If that

12:26

means we go to a bar or a club, we

12:28

go to a bar or a club. You've got to go

12:30

to find the people where they are and remind

12:32

them of the importance of this election and the

12:34

importance to their lives, to their futures of turning

12:37

Biden and Harris to the White House. And they're

12:39

receptive once you get to them. And I think

12:41

this is the key to the work that we

12:43

do in Michigan that so many other states and

12:46

frankly campaigns need to ping off of. You need

12:48

to be having these conversations all the time. This

12:50

is not about just showing up in September to

12:52

do turnout the way we have traditionally done it.

12:55

That'll get you that first group of folks Terrence

12:57

talked to us about. But these folks, we've

12:59

got to persuade them. And that means you got

13:01

to go find them where they are and have

13:03

conversations with them. You can't just show

13:06

up on election day and drag them out the door the

13:08

way we used to do it. This is a much bigger

13:10

job that we do now all the time and everybody ought

13:12

to be doing it. Obviously there must

13:14

be a ton of different kinds of conversations

13:17

that you're having with these kinds of

13:19

voters. Are there common themes that come up

13:21

when you first ask them, are

13:23

you thinking about participating in this election? What do you

13:25

think about Joe Biden? What do you think about Donald

13:27

Trump? What do they tend to say that you're

13:30

hearing most often? There absolutely are common themes and

13:32

the economy is one of them. People talk about

13:34

money. People think Donald Trump wrote them a check.

13:36

I heard this yesterday. It was in a club

13:39

in Detroit yesterday with a group of black men

13:41

who said, I'm hearing all the time people think

13:43

Donald Trump gave them money. Trump wrote me a

13:46

check. So economy, age, obviously. These young folks

13:48

are like, these guys, neither of them. Know

13:51

who I am, know anything about my struggle, know anything

13:53

about my life. They are not me. And this

13:55

is why it's so important that we talk about who

13:58

the messengers are too, right? Because it is not. It's

14:00

not about me sitting down with folks. It's

14:02

not about, you know, Joe Biden.

14:04

It's about colleagues, friends, neighbors, moms

14:07

and dads, you know, having these conversations

14:09

with these young folks about the importance

14:11

of this election and tying things like

14:13

jobs and the economy directly back to

14:15

the administration and the work that they've

14:17

done. That administration here in Michigan and

14:20

that administration in DC, Biden and Harris. And, you

14:22

know, we were talking to a guy from the

14:24

Carpenters Union yesterday who talked about how many good

14:26

paying jobs there are out there for young

14:28

folks who want to come show up and

14:30

get trained. That's because of the Biden and Harris

14:32

administration. And that's the kind of thing we have

14:34

to keep telling folks and we've got to get

14:37

in these rooms and have those conversations. LaVora,

14:39

I saw that when there was drop

14:41

off in black voter turnout, especially young

14:43

black voter turnout between the midterms in

14:45

2018 and the midterms in 2022, there

14:49

was not as much of a

14:52

drop in Michigan. And I think

14:54

I read that abortion was one

14:56

reason why. Does that remain

14:58

sort of a central issue? And is that

15:00

an issue that is also, you've

15:03

seen persuading some people who might

15:05

not be decided about the election to actually get

15:07

involved and go vote? Yes, abortion

15:10

and the erosion of any

15:12

rights. Like the combination of watching folks try

15:14

to roll back rights that we have worked

15:16

so hard to get. And the

15:18

fact that it could happen again with abortion, with

15:21

voting rights, we've done so much good work here

15:23

in Michigan and it's all at stake

15:25

and people need to understand that. And I

15:27

think when we're having those conversations, we get

15:29

a lot of nodding of heads, people are

15:31

understanding that, we've done a lot

15:33

of good work here, the country has done

15:35

a lot of good work and that Trump

15:37

and the Republicans are a threat to that

15:39

good work around rights and absolutely abortion is

15:41

one of them. We had really great conversations

15:43

in 2022 with black

15:46

voters about supporting their black sisters,

15:48

mothers and friends in the abortion

15:50

realm. And frankly, black men

15:52

don't want unwanted pregnancies either, right? And so

15:54

these are the kinds of conversations that we were able

15:57

to have around abortion and we're still having those because

15:59

it's still a threat. It's still out there. Terrence,

16:01

I've seen some pollsters and pundits talking

16:03

about the potential for a racial realignment

16:06

in 2024 based

16:08

on public polls showing some truly wild

16:10

swings among black voters. There was just

16:12

a Fox News poll this week that

16:14

had Trump winning 25% of the black

16:16

vote in Virginia. Most

16:20

recent set of New York Times polls

16:22

showed more than one in five black

16:24

voters in swing states open to voting

16:26

for Donald Trump. I'm guessing

16:28

that you don't believe this to be completely

16:30

true, but what's your best guess as

16:32

to what the hell is going on with

16:35

all the polling this cycle? Ah,

16:37

yeah, yeah. You know, there is a better

16:39

and worse way to poll black folks. And

16:41

we are seeing some of the worst ways

16:43

driving media coverage. Look, there's a couple of

16:45

things that we find wrong in polling, specifically

16:47

with voters of color. One is when the

16:49

sample size is too small. You can't

16:51

talk to 100 or 200 black folks and

16:53

predict what the community

16:55

is gonna do because it under-represents

16:57

the diversity within the community. The

17:01

other is when we just present a forced

17:03

choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. That

17:06

is false. There will not be only two

17:08

names on the ballot. In any of the

17:10

50 states, will there only be two names

17:12

on the ballot? And so when you force

17:14

that choice between two, you're going

17:16

to over-represent the support for both of those

17:18

candidates. And then the

17:20

last is the third party erosion, the third

17:23

party threat here that is not being counted

17:25

in a lot of the public polling, I

17:28

think is measuring some of the

17:30

frustration and discontent. That when black

17:32

voters say that they're either undecided

17:34

or considering third party, what they

17:37

are really expressing is a frustration

17:39

with Joe Biden and with Democrats. And

17:42

the number one reason why young voters

17:44

have expressed frustration or lack of confidence

17:46

in the administration is because they don't

17:48

think enough has happened. And that is

17:50

just demonstrably untrue. We have to do

17:53

a better job demonstrating the progress

17:55

that's been made on their top issues, including

17:58

student loans, climate change. the

18:00

economy, criminal justice reform, and

18:03

others that the Biden administration has made

18:05

tremendous progress on. Levora,

18:07

are you encountering any new or surprising

18:11

Trump curiosity among black voters

18:13

in Michigan? You mentioned some

18:15

saying, well, he sent us a check.

18:18

Are there other reasons that you've

18:20

heard for people supporting Trump that

18:22

have surprised you or thinking about supporting Trump? Or

18:25

is this a phenomenon that you're noticing? Or is

18:27

it more sort of like what Terrence was just

18:29

saying that there's just a lot of unhappy voters

18:32

with both parties and both candidates? Yeah,

18:34

I'm running into more unhappy voters. I

18:37

rarely run into someone who tells me that they are going to

18:39

support Trump. Now, of course, I'm the Democratic

18:41

Party chair. I'm probably not gonna be

18:44

running into a lot of folks who are gonna tell me they're gonna

18:46

run, they're gonna vote for Trump. Fair. But

18:48

I have run into a lot of folks who talk about

18:50

being offended by the way

18:53

Trump is trying to reach them. The

18:55

suggestion that holding up an ugly-ass pair

18:57

of gold shoes or,

18:59

you know, telling me that the black folks

19:01

like my mugshot, like, that's the way to

19:03

get my vote. People are offended by it.

19:05

People understand when they are being used in

19:07

that way and they don't like it. But

19:10

most people that are talking to us about

19:12

the issues and about their concerns are really

19:14

just straight-up concerned about whether or not either

19:17

of these two men have done or will

19:19

do anything that make their lives better. And

19:21

that's why, as Terrence says, it's such an

19:23

important part of our role to make sure

19:26

we're telling that story, pointing directly to the

19:28

things that the Biden-Harris administration has done and

19:30

will do. And of course, pointing back to

19:32

who Donald Trump was as president and who Donald Trump

19:34

continues to promise to be going

19:37

forward as president. And I

19:39

think that those are conversations that really

19:41

are what people are having

19:43

with us here at the party about this

19:45

election and about Donald Trump. Not about,

19:47

I think Donald Trump is my man. That's

19:50

not happening. I want to add something here,

19:52

because while I do think that public polling

19:54

is over-representing Black people's support for Donald Trump,

19:57

he will very likely win more...

20:00

black people's votes in 2024 than he did in 2020. Not 20%, not 25%, but more

20:02

than he did in the last election.

20:07

I think that there are some things contributing to

20:10

that. And one is that

20:13

Democrats have to reclaim some

20:15

of the values that black

20:17

people hold very, very dear.

20:19

Values like spirituality, masculinity,

20:22

patriotism, values that not Joe Biden,

20:24

but that Democrats more broadly have

20:27

been ceding to the Republican

20:29

party. And there's a way for us to

20:32

message our very, very progressive

20:34

issues, issues like abortion, like

20:36

gender and sexuality, that we

20:38

can message those progressive issues

20:41

through black ass values. And

20:43

there's examples of that. Like, you know, if God

20:45

is granting all of us freedom of choice, then

20:48

why should government grant women any less than that?

20:51

Or as the head of my household, I

20:53

must protect my family from intrusive governments that

20:55

tell them who they must be or when

20:57

they must start a family. Those are, you

21:00

know, that head of household and spiritual values

21:02

that folks like my father hold very,

21:04

very dear and don't want to see to Republicans,

21:06

even though he's never going to vote for them.

21:08

And so that's a part of the work

21:10

that we also have to do here in our messaging. That

21:13

brings up an interesting question, because when

21:15

you talk about Democrats

21:18

reclaiming values like

21:20

spirituality, patriotism,

21:23

masculinity, a positive

21:26

version of masculinity. It's not

21:28

all toxic. Right, right.

21:30

It's not all toxic. But it does make me, my gut

21:33

instinct on that is that reclaiming those

21:35

values would appeal to older

21:38

voters of all races, really. And it's interesting

21:40

to me that the gap you're seeing with

21:42

black voters, and I think obviously older

21:45

black voters still have a lot of ties to

21:47

the civil rights movement and connect the Democratic Party

21:49

with the civil rights movement. But what

21:51

do you think is going on with the

21:54

generation gap and some of these

21:56

younger voters and these younger voters who may

21:58

be turning away from the party or

22:01

Joe Biden, you know, you talked about how

22:03

they don't think that he did anything for them. How

22:06

are they seeing sort of these, these

22:08

values that you're talking about in terms

22:10

of patriotism and masculinity and spirituality? Are

22:12

those values that would resonate with younger

22:15

voters who may be turning away from

22:17

the party? I mean,

22:19

hyper-masculinity certainly does, you know, that's, I

22:21

think that's a part of the cultural

22:24

appeal that Donald Trump is trying to

22:26

make with, you know, with the

22:28

rappers that he's assembling with the, you know,

22:32

it is an effort to appeal to

22:34

that hyper-masculinity. But a

22:36

lot of when we see a swing

22:39

of young voters towards Republicans, like we

22:41

saw in the state like Florida, where

22:44

Ron DeSantis increases margins amongst young black

22:46

voters by almost 10 points, a lot

22:48

of that is being driven by drop

22:51

off of young voters, right?

22:53

That when less young black people

22:55

are participating in the

22:57

electorate, then it is giving conservative

23:01

black voters a higher

23:03

and disproportionate representation in

23:05

the polls. This

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at cedarpoint.com. Let's

25:31

talk a little bit more about the third party threat.

25:34

And of course, we don't know which third party

25:36

candidates will be on the ballots in which states

25:38

yet completely. We know that

25:40

RFK Jr. is out there, Cornell

25:42

West, Jill Stein. I

25:44

believe RFK Jr. and Jill Stein are both on

25:47

the ballot in Michigan. Terrence,

25:49

you guys did a focus group last year

25:52

with male voters of color who supported Biden

25:54

in 2020, but are at least contemplating supporting

25:56

a third party candidate in 2024. Let's

25:59

listen to. a clip. That Trump will

26:01

win the White House because Biden and

26:04

Cornell will split the vote and

26:06

then Trump will win. And I want to

26:08

get a sense, Howard, what's your reaction to

26:10

that? Will you still vote for Cornel West

26:12

or whoever your independent person is? The

26:17

numbers, I'm not going based off the

26:19

numbers. I'm going to based off what I feel like

26:21

that person is going to bring to the table. Even

26:25

though I know the math, Donald Trump's probably

26:27

going to win. I'm still going to vote

26:29

for who I feel like would bring something

26:31

to the table. Anyone else in Howard's position

26:33

say I would still vote third party over

26:35

Joe Biden if that third party person aligned

26:37

with my policy decisions better than Joe Biden

26:39

does. Anyone else that they would do that,

26:42

given the calculus we talked about, would President

26:44

Trump possibly write it? So one, two, three,

26:46

four, five, Susan Pissoff. So all of us

26:48

are saying, who are on that side are

26:51

saying that as well. So that was

26:53

eight of eight. Lavoore, I want

26:55

to start with you here. Was any

26:57

of that surprising or does it sound

26:59

similar to what you've heard in Michigan?

27:01

And how are you all approaching these

27:04

potential third party voters? Yeah,

27:06

we have heard it before. You know, we've we've experienced

27:08

the third party candidate on a ballot 2016. And

27:12

I will tell you this, that what we

27:14

do know is that Justice Terrence's

27:16

work there showed telling people

27:18

that voting for the third party is how

27:21

you're going to make the other guy win is

27:23

not convincing. What is convincing is reminding

27:25

people of the value of having Biden

27:28

and Harris in the office. We've got

27:30

to tell our story. This

27:32

is not about why not to vote third party.

27:35

It's about why to vote Joe Biden and Kamala

27:37

Harris. There are, of course, some

27:39

things about this third party candidates we can share

27:41

that might help people make a decision. And we

27:43

will be sharing those things also. But

27:45

it is so important instead to be very

27:48

focused on the good story that we've got to tell

27:50

and make sure we're doing a good job telling it. And

27:52

I think that anybody who thinks that the way you get

27:55

someone to choose not to choose that

27:57

third party, not to make that choice

27:59

when they're looking at these two men thinking,

28:01

neither of these two men will represent me, maybe

28:03

this one over here will. The

28:06

answer isn't to say, you're gonna make me

28:08

lose. The answer is to say, here's

28:10

why I need you to help me continue

28:12

the work that we've been doing. Look at

28:14

what we've been able to accomplish so far

28:16

because you voted for me last time. I

28:18

need you again to make sure we can

28:20

keep doing this work. And that's the message that we're

28:23

gonna be saying all over Michigan from

28:25

now until November. This is why we need to send

28:27

Biden and Harris back. Terrence,

28:30

obviously that group was from a year ago. Now

28:32

that the race is set, more

28:35

people are paying attention, more people know that

28:37

it's Biden versus Trump, that those are gonna

28:40

be the nominees. Has that kind

28:42

of sentiment changed at all in

28:44

focus groups that you're hearing? Yeah,

28:46

absolutely. So a couple of things happened in

28:48

that focus group. One, to your point, they

28:51

were before Donald Trump was the presumptive nominee.

28:54

And two, they were a group of black men

28:56

that had previously voted for Biden and were unsure about

28:58

who they were gonna vote for. And so some

29:01

of that is represented there. After

29:03

2016, we conducted third

29:05

party focus groups. And

29:08

the point of them was to determine if

29:10

we can create some voters remorse amongst

29:13

those third party voters. They're like, look, now

29:15

that Donald Trump has won, and

29:17

we've had six months of his administration, and we

29:20

can show you what Jeff Sessions has done, and

29:22

we can show you Muslim bands, and we can

29:24

show you all of the awful things that we

29:26

anticipated. If the election

29:28

were today, how would you vote different? And

29:31

the confusion in those voters, when they

29:33

were forced to answer that question, and

29:36

they had to look up and say, well, what if we wouldn't

29:38

do anything different? And we

29:40

realized there that creating this

29:42

remorse, this idea that the reason the

29:44

other guy won is because of how

29:46

you voted, that that would not be

29:49

disqualified. And so we are gonna have

29:51

to give them, to the point, not

29:53

just a reason to vote against

29:55

them, but a reason to vote for

29:57

us. And that reason has to be

29:59

specific. because their lives

30:01

have improved, and that is

30:04

incumbent upon Democrats, upon Joe Biden,

30:06

and upon campaigns to

30:08

demonstrate how our

30:10

votes have made our lives better. Well,

30:13

that's a good segue into the next thing I want to

30:15

talk about, which is what it will

30:18

take to persuade some of these

30:20

voters to ultimately support Joe Biden

30:22

again. The president has given several speeches

30:24

to Black audiences just over the last several weeks.

30:27

He spoke to the NAACP in Detroit. He

30:30

delivered the commencement at Terrence's Alma

30:32

Mater Morehouse. He was

30:34

in Philly with Kamala Harris at a very

30:36

big event there, kicking off their Black voter

30:38

outreach program. Here's some of what

30:40

he said at these events. So

30:42

I came today to speak the

30:44

truth. The

30:48

truth about promises made and

30:51

promises kept. I promised to

30:53

put racial equality as

30:55

center of everything I do because

30:58

you voted. We're

31:00

invested in more than ever in the Black

31:02

families and communities, a promise

31:04

made and a promise kept. What

31:06

is democracy? If

31:08

Black men are being killed in the street, what

31:11

is democracy? The trail

31:14

of broken promises still leave Black

31:16

communities behind. Most of all,

31:19

what does it mean, as

31:21

you've heard before, to be

31:24

a Black man who loves his country, even

31:27

if it doesn't love him back in equal measure? Levora,

31:30

what do you think about the promises made, promises

31:34

kept message? Does that resonate with

31:36

folks in Michigan? We use

31:38

it all the time. Yes, it

31:40

does. We use it to talk about

31:42

our legislature because we made some promises. We

31:44

got a trifecta here, a governor, and a state

31:47

house in the state senate, and they have gone

31:49

about the business of keeping those promises and we

31:51

use that language all the time. People

31:53

get it. You do have to then follow it by

31:55

reminding them what the things were that we promised and

31:58

how we kept those promises. And we do have to follow it. that

32:00

part as well. But it is, it works

32:02

because I think people love to hear, that's

32:04

right, you did tell me you were going to

32:06

do that and then you did it. And

32:09

we use it a lot. We're going to keep using it. Folks

32:11

seem to respond to it. Terrence,

32:14

here's my challenge with the Promises Made,

32:16

Promises Kept message is all

32:19

of the research, all the focus groups, all

32:21

the polling, just talking to people, you

32:24

get this sense that I'm not

32:26

feeling the progress in

32:28

my own life, right? That the economy, I hear

32:31

great things about the economy. I hear all these

32:33

statistics. I hear about the stock market. I hear

32:35

about unemployment, but it's I'm not feeling it in

32:37

my own life. How do you

32:39

help people

32:41

understand what the president

32:43

has accomplished when they might

32:46

not be feeling it in their own lives?

32:48

And you want to make sure that it

32:50

doesn't sound like it's out of touch. That

32:53

he's saying Promised Made, Promised Kept and they're

32:55

thinking, well, I don't feel like there's been

32:57

any promises kept yet because I'm

32:59

still paying too much for

33:01

groceries and whatever else

33:03

their concerns may be. So

33:06

in transparency, I was fortunate enough

33:08

to help contribute to some of

33:10

those speeches. I

33:13

didn't know that before this interview, by the way, but

33:16

I can tell. Let me tell you. You can hear

33:18

it. Because I've now talked

33:20

to you enough and read enough of

33:22

your research. So yeah, that's great. You

33:24

know, some of the stuff that we

33:26

hear that really resonates there. Promises made

33:28

does begin to cut through the cynicism,

33:31

reminding people of what he promised

33:33

and how he has delivered. And

33:36

the other thing that I think resonates there, John,

33:38

and we've talked about this before, is it's changing

33:40

the hero of the story, right? It's

33:42

taking the cape off of Joe Biden and

33:45

putting it on these voters. And when I hear him

33:47

say, because you voted, we

33:50

have been able to do XYZ. It's

33:53

empowering, right? It reminds voters that, again, our

33:55

lives are improving because of our votes and

33:58

not just because of our votes. because

34:00

of some hero in Washington that's there saving

34:02

us, but that we are in

34:04

fact delivering the progress. And

34:06

then the other thing that I heard there is that he's

34:08

acknowledging the pain. What is democracy if black men can still

34:11

be killed in the streets? That

34:13

a part of us demonstrating

34:15

progress is not appearing to

34:18

wave a mission accomplished flag.

34:20

That black folks are still in pain. That

34:23

groceries are still to them expensive. That

34:26

black parents are still having to talk with their

34:28

kids before they get behind the wheel. And so

34:30

he's acknowledging some of that pain. And

34:32

a part of what I think the campaign is going

34:34

to have to continue to do and to

34:36

your question of how do we make this

34:39

progress resonate to folks that don't feel it?

34:41

I think there's two things. One, we have

34:43

to change the messengers. They

34:45

need to hear from people that look like them. It's

34:48

different to hear the president say, your

34:50

life is better because than it is

34:52

to hear someone that has your shared

34:54

walk of life say, because

34:56

of that student loan forgiveness, I was able

34:58

to do XYZ. And

35:00

that's important because black folks have a very high

35:03

procession of shared fate. And

35:05

so when we see other black people

35:07

doing well, doing better, it does reinforce

35:09

that one, we contributed to that with

35:11

our votes. And two, that progress is

35:13

available for me as well. Yeah,

35:15

I've heard you talk before about the difference

35:17

between defending democracy and then

35:20

talking about fixing democracy. And

35:23

it does seem like obviously democracy is

35:26

going to be central to the message

35:28

between now and November. That's

35:31

by necessity, since that's what's under

35:33

threat right now by Donald

35:35

Trump and MAGA Republicans. But

35:38

it was interesting hearing him in that

35:40

Morehouse speech sort of alluding

35:42

to the fact that, yeah, maybe

35:44

democracy, maybe you don't think democracy

35:46

necessarily works for you. And

35:50

it's not just him saying

35:52

that he will defend democracy, but

35:54

actually giving a defense of democracy

35:57

as a system that is worth voting

35:59

for. and fighting for. Do you think that's

36:01

sort of important for him to continue to

36:03

do? Absolutely. The problem with

36:06

the frame of fixing democracy is

36:08

that folks that have had mixed

36:10

results from democracy aren't that interested

36:12

in fixing it. You

36:14

know, folks, especially millennials who have now

36:16

voted in several elections with the person

36:18

that got the most vote also lost.

36:21

It is obvious that the system, that

36:23

this current democratic system isn't working the

36:25

way it's supposed to. It's not working

36:28

for everyone that's participating in it. And

36:30

so what we see the president doing

36:32

there, moving from just encouraging

36:34

people to vote and defend democracy,

36:37

is acknowledging the parts of it that aren't working

36:39

for everybody. And I think that

36:41

that is important, especially for the cynics. The

36:43

cynics who feel like these institutions have failed

36:45

them, he is right to acknowledge the ways

36:48

that it has failed them and

36:50

the ways that he can enlist them. Not

36:52

that if we elect him, he can defend

36:54

it and fix it for us, but that

36:56

we have to enlist them in the fight

36:58

and in the process of fixing it and

37:00

making it work for everybody. I

37:02

love that. And we talk about it here a lot,

37:04

about how the vote is the first step in your

37:06

participation in the democracy. It's not the whole

37:09

thing. And I think this is an important thing

37:11

that we can all talk about as

37:13

we're talking to young folks about participating

37:15

in this democracy. Yes, vote, but also

37:17

continue to participate beyond that vote. Continue

37:19

to show up and ask for

37:21

the things that your community needs and you needs

37:24

from the folks that you just helped elect. Participate

37:26

all the time, not just on election day. Yeah,

37:29

that's powerful. So

37:31

we've talked about how to frame President Biden's accomplishments.

37:34

LaVora, is there a way to talk about

37:36

the choice between how Biden and Trump will

37:38

handle economic issues over the next four years

37:40

that you found resonates with voters you've talked

37:42

to and are trying to organize? Yeah,

37:45

I think one of the things that we do, and

37:47

President Biden and his team do this as well, is

37:49

remind them of the failures of the Trump administration. I

37:52

think that the distance between then and now

37:55

causes some folks to not quite remember. So we can

37:57

do a lot of looking back at... life

38:00

was like under the Trump administration infrastructure week

38:02

that went on and on and on and

38:04

yet no infrastructure happened. But the Biden Harris

38:07

administration has been able to make that happen

38:09

about the COVID response and how that left

38:11

people hungry and some people

38:13

dead, right? And that sort of going back

38:15

in time to remind folks of who he

38:18

is, who he was and who he will

38:20

be. And of course, sharing the story of

38:22

the work that the Biden administration has done

38:24

on behalf of folks in the, to grow

38:26

this economy, to grow the infrastructure, to bring

38:28

good paying jobs here, to bring good paying

38:30

union jobs to Michiganders and

38:32

support that sort of work that we're doing here

38:34

in Michigan and that our governor, our terrific governor

38:36

and lieutenant governor are doing here with partnership with

38:39

Biden. It's a good

38:41

story to tell, but an important part of it is to

38:43

go back and remind people of who Donald Trump was as

38:45

president of the United States. He's got a record and

38:47

we need to remind folks of it. Terrence,

38:50

what about you? I mean, you know, the

38:52

cliche is that elections are about the future. And

38:55

especially if you're an incumbent you

38:57

don't want the election to be a referendum, you

38:59

want it to be a choice. I keep

39:02

waiting for the Biden folks

39:04

and you know, I'm sure they'll do that

39:06

this summer and into the fall to sort

39:08

of come out with like a proactive agenda

39:10

for the next four years. Do you think

39:12

that's important to some of these voters or

39:15

do you think right now we're sort of

39:17

building a story that talks like what LaVora

39:19

was just talking about of, all right,

39:21

this is what, this is what Biden accomplished. This is what

39:23

Trump did during his four

39:25

years. And that's the choice. Or when do

39:27

you think it starts moving forward? Yeah,

39:30

you know, I've been torn here because,

39:32

you know, the voters that I, that

39:34

I'm laser focused on are those cynical

39:37

drop off, low

39:39

propensity, less engaged voters, right? And

39:42

for some of them that we

39:44

are going to have to demonstrate progress on

39:46

the last four years before we make promises

39:48

for the next four years. And

39:51

so that's, I think that is the campaign

39:53

and the president's number one priority right now

39:55

is demonstrate the progress. Okay.

39:59

Connect them to the progress.

40:01

specifically on the economy. We've

40:04

talked about this, John, that this is

40:06

a cost election, as

40:08

much as it's an economy election. Economy means

40:10

a lot of things to a lot of

40:12

people. What voters mean when they say economy

40:14

in this election overwhelmingly is cost. And

40:17

that's why some of the indicators like job

40:19

creation and stock market, some of that isn't

40:21

resonating because the cost is still too damn

40:23

high. And so we do,

40:25

and I think that this administration has

40:27

a story to tell on cost about

40:30

how they've brought down cost of prescription

40:32

drugs and brought down cost of college

40:34

education and brought down cost of housing

40:36

and continue to challenge airlines and junk

40:38

fees. And that's the cost story that

40:41

we have to continue to lean into.

40:43

But the other thing that we have to do in

40:46

the economy and that we've seen the president and the

40:48

vice president who's on an economic tour right now is

40:50

moving from discussing the

40:53

economy as poverty reduction and

40:55

discussing it more as wealth creation. And

40:58

that has also been a part of the appeal of Donald

41:00

Trump is that they think that he will make them rich.

41:03

Whether there's any evidence of that or not, a

41:05

part of that. And we do have a story

41:08

to tell there about what this

41:10

administration has done to increase black wealth

41:12

by 60%, to

41:14

increase black businesses from 5% to 11% that

41:17

we have to start talking about more of those things

41:19

as well. LaVora, one last thing

41:22

on Biden's More House speech before we move on. A

41:24

handful of students turned their back to Biden during his

41:26

remarks to protest his handling of the war in Gaza.

41:28

In Michigan, of course, you guys had 100,000 people vote

41:31

uncommitted on primary day. Just

41:34

this week, the NAACP called on Biden to

41:36

halt arms deliveries to Israel. How

41:38

much of an issue is Gaza among

41:40

voters in Michigan? And what have you

41:42

found is the most effective way to

41:45

talk about the war with 2020 Biden voters who

41:47

may now be upset with the president's handling of it? It

41:50

is definitely an issue. We're keeping an eye on

41:52

it. We talk about it a lot here in

41:54

Michigan, of course. We've been doing

41:56

what we call listening sessions. Right? I am not the

41:58

president of the United States. I'm also not

42:00

a foreign policy expert, but what I am

42:02

is an ear and occasionally a voice. So

42:05

we are listening to the communities that want to talk

42:08

to us about this issue and making sure that they

42:10

know that we hear them and that we're passing

42:12

their information and their messages on to the president

42:14

and the president hears them. And I think that's

42:17

where we have to be right now as a party

42:19

while the president does the foreign policy work he needs

42:21

to do. And we have seen him

42:23

move. We've seen his language change. We've

42:25

seen his policies move. And I think

42:27

that a lot of people are seeing

42:29

hope in that movement, but also people's

42:31

lives have been affected. People's families have

42:33

died. This is serious and we take

42:35

it very seriously and we hurt with

42:37

them and we cry with them. But

42:40

what I can't do is fix it because I'm

42:42

not a foreign policy expert and I'm also not

42:44

the president. But what I can do is remind

42:46

folks how important it is to continue to express

42:48

your voice and that we're listening. And that first

42:50

amendment right to protest is absolutely yours and

42:52

I respect your use of it. And

42:55

as long as you're doing so without harming

42:57

anyone or harming anything, please continue

42:59

to use it and we'll continue to pass the message

43:01

on to the president. And I know he's listening. I

43:03

think that's a really thoughtful answer. I

43:06

wish more people online would give answers

43:08

like that. I agree. I

43:10

wish they would. When

43:17

I grow up, I'm gonna be

43:19

a veg-tur- Veterinarian? That's awesome.

43:22

And I'm gonna be what you said we need more of.

43:24

So you wanna be a

43:27

plumber-narian? Do

43:29

you think I can? I think that if you work really

43:31

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44:19

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your lost notebooks and their data with you working from all over.

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endpoint security. HP. Trump's

44:53

guilty verdict I want to ask

44:56

you both about an issue that certainly feels like it

44:58

should be important to voters. A jury finding

45:00

Donald Trump guilty of 34 felony counts. And

45:04

yet, Trump and his campaign see

45:06

this as a development that may help him with

45:08

voters, particularly black voters. Here's

45:11

an Axios headline from a few days after the verdict. Guilty

45:14

verdict fuels Trump's push for black

45:16

voters. Quote Senator Tim Scott, potential

45:19

VP, saying, quote, As an African-American born and raised

45:21

in the Deep South who had concerns about our

45:23

justice system as it relates to race, I'm now

45:25

seeing it play out from a partisan perspective. The

45:29

campaign has also been sharing clips like this from

45:32

this one's from the Breakfast Club, which is a wildly

45:34

popular black radio show. Good morning, brother. Peace,

45:36

TK. What up, Charlie man? What up, Jeff?

45:38

What up? What's your thoughts, brother?

45:40

Well, I'm going to tell you, man, I feel

45:43

like Trump's got a dirty. I don't trust the

45:45

system at all. You know what I mean? Especially

45:47

the insurance system. I'm the same

45:49

when I called yesterday about that

45:51

dog situation. So it's like after you've

45:53

been railroaded by this system and you see that when

45:55

you walk in the courtroom, they want you to

45:57

be guilty. You're going to be guilty. I don't

45:59

know. I got no trust in that process. You know

46:02

what I mean? I rock with Trump. I feel

46:04

like that he's way better than Biden. You

46:07

know, Biden, I can't stand him. Biden the devil,

46:09

man. Biden the same one. Y'all remember the conversation

46:11

in the 90s? I know y'all

46:13

got family members that was victim of that. The

46:16

86 mandatory minimum-citizen,

46:20

88 crack law, 94 crime bill. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

46:22

for sure. So I

46:24

don't know if that's necessarily someone who

46:26

was undecided before the verdict, Terrence,

46:29

do you think that that's sort of an

46:31

isolated kind of comment or

46:33

does it reflect, does any of it, any

46:36

of that comment reflect a sentiment you've heard

46:38

in focus groups from voters? So

46:40

I actually spoke to black voters in

46:43

Florida the night of the conviction. And

46:45

first I had to break the news to them while

46:48

it was the only thing that any of us

46:50

were covering or observing, none of them even knew

46:52

it happened. And I think

46:55

that that is the, that's my

46:57

biggest takeaway from this verdict is

46:59

that it's simply not as impactful as many

47:01

of us pundits and operatives believe it is.

47:04

There just wasn't a lot of new

47:06

information. They knew about Stormy Daniels. They

47:09

knew about Trump's legal issues, being

47:11

indicted 109 times or being convicted 34 times, it

47:15

just ain't that much of a difference to people. And

47:17

the other thing that I didn't suspect was

47:19

that it wasn't that

47:21

unprecedented, right? That their

47:23

observation is that there are always criminals

47:25

in the political system. There's been mayors

47:27

and governors and all kinds of folks

47:30

has been convicted. It's unprecedented to us

47:32

that it's never been a president, but

47:34

that just wasn't that unprecedented to them that there was

47:36

precedent for that. Now the last thing I'll say is

47:40

what I heard that young man say on

47:42

the breakfast club, I do think that

47:44

there is a there

47:46

there, not in that Donald

47:48

Trump can convince black people

47:51

that he's like them because he's

47:53

been convicted, but

47:55

there is the possibility that he

47:58

can appeal to people