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1:02

They are, in a sense, January

1:05

6th Republicans. People who

1:07

may have been staunch Republicans for a long time,

1:10

they may have voted for Trump twice, but

1:13

now they have this deep feeling that he's crossed

1:16

a line, that he's lost it, that he has

1:18

broken with them in a way that they can never

1:20

accept again. You may recognize

1:22

that voice as Ben Wickler, chair of

1:24

the Wisconsin Democratic Party and one

1:26

of the country's best political organizers. I

1:29

called up Ben earlier this week so we could

1:31

talk about a group of people who may decide

1:33

the election in Wisconsin and all across America. Trump

1:36

voters who no longer like Trump. Of

1:40

course, in a close election, there are

1:42

many groups of voters who could decide the outcome. And

1:44

we'll be talking to a lot of them over the next few months. Black

1:47

voters, Hispanic voters, young voters,

1:50

people who aren't even sure if they're going to vote at all. The

1:53

anti-Trump coalition we're building has to

1:55

include as many voters as possible,

1:58

whoever they are, wherever we can find them. In

2:01

2020, a small percentage of

2:03

people who voted for Trump in 2016 switched

2:05

to Joe Biden. And that

2:07

made all the difference in a state like Wisconsin that was

2:09

decided by about 20,000 votes.

2:12

In 2024, not only do we have

2:14

to keep these voters, we also have an

2:16

opportunity to pick up some two-time Trump voters

2:18

who just don't think they can bring themselves

2:20

to support him again, for all

2:22

kinds of reasons. There are

2:25

different flavors of soft Republicans, different

2:27

types of folks. They're

2:30

often very different from most swing

2:32

voters. They're often high-information voters. There's

2:34

a lot of military veterans and

2:36

military families, like people who put

2:39

their lives on the line and wrap their

2:41

whole family around service to this country, who

2:43

feel a sense of deep betrayal from Trump.

2:46

Both from January 6th and what he said

2:48

about our troops, there are some

2:51

voters who are dob's voters who voted

2:53

Republican for economic reasons, but they don't like

2:55

the idea of the government making private medical

2:57

decisions in their families. The voters

2:59

who have made it a

3:02

part of their identity that they're Republicans and now

3:04

walk away, these are people for whom it's often

3:06

a big deal, a big deal in their

3:08

soul and in their lives that they've decided that

3:10

he's gone too far and that they can't go

3:13

there with him. I

3:15

realize that for some of you, it might be hard to

3:17

understand this kind of voter. How

3:20

is it worth our time and energy to persuade people

3:22

who might want to vote for Donald Trump again after

3:24

all that he's said and done over the last eight

3:27

years? But remember, these

3:29

aren't MAGA diehards. They

3:31

aren't going to Trump rallies and posting crazy

3:34

shit online. They are genuinely

3:36

wrestling with the decision. We

3:38

don't have to understand why they voted for Trump. We

3:41

just have to convince them not to do it again.

3:46

Maybe you have one of those voters in your life, a

3:48

family member or a neighbor. Maybe

3:50

you don't know anyone like this, but if you volunteer,

3:52

you might end up talking to one of those gettable

3:55

Trump voters. So in

3:57

this episode, we're going to help you figure out

3:59

what to say. and how to say it. And

4:02

to do that, we've brought in my two

4:04

favorite never-Trump pals, former

4:06

Republican strategist Tim Miller and

4:08

longtime Republican pollster Sarah Longwell, who's

4:11

constantly doing focus groups with these voters as

4:13

part of a project she runs called Republican

4:15

Voters Against Trump. You'll

4:18

hear our conversation next, and then

4:20

Ben Wickler will help us wrap things up with

4:22

more advice about what it'll take to get these

4:24

Biden-curious Trump voters off the fence. Let's

4:27

get into it. I'm

4:32

Jon Favreau. Welcome to the wilderness. All

4:37

right. Excited to kick things

4:39

off with my two favorite never-Trumper pals and

4:41

two of the smartest political nerds I know,

4:43

Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller. Hey, guys. Thanks

4:45

for having me. What's up? Yeah, thanks for

4:48

doing this. Obviously, we all have a lot

4:50

of work to do with a lot of

4:52

different groups of voters who aren't yet sold

4:54

on casting a ballot for Joe Biden, but

4:56

today we're focusing on a group that's near

4:59

and dear to your heart, Republicans

5:01

and Trump voters who don't

5:03

like Trump. So you

5:05

guys talk about these voters all the time

5:07

on your various bulwark pods. Sarah, you're hearing

5:10

from these voters in focus groups as part

5:12

of a separate campaign you're running called Republican

5:14

Voters Against Trump. Can you start

5:16

by talking a bit about that campaign and

5:18

what your strategy is? Yeah, look, we

5:20

did this campaign in 2020. When

5:23

it came to the center-right, right-leaning

5:25

independents, soft GOP voters, getting them

5:27

to not vote for Trump and

5:29

vote for Biden, it wasn't

5:31

enough to do these kind of

5:34

hard-hitting ads that went viral on

5:36

Twitter. In fact, Twitter virality is

5:38

often inversely correlated to actual persuasion

5:41

of your target audience, because if

5:43

a bunch of progressives are smashing

5:45

the share button, there's a pretty

5:48

good chance that it doesn't land

5:51

persuasively with swing voters. And so we were

5:53

really trying to figure out what would move,

5:55

because we heard from so many voters who

5:58

were Republicans and didn't like Trump. And

6:00

he didn't want to vote for him again, but they just they

6:02

weren't Democrats and they didn't quite know how to get over The

6:05

tribal hurdle of voting for a Democrat and

6:07

when it comes to trust with voters One

6:09

of the other things you heard very clearly

6:12

was they didn't trust any institution They

6:14

didn't trust Democratic messengers they trusted

6:17

people like them that was their main

6:19

trusted source of information And so we

6:21

went and found people like them Republican

6:23

voters who weren't gonna vote for Trump and

6:25

we got them to make little video testimonials

6:28

explaining why and so they just hold up

6:30

the phone and they'd say I'm John

6:32

from Texas and because I'm a Christian I

6:34

cannot vote for Donald Trump again and they

6:36

talk about why and the ones that actually

6:38

were the most Persuasive were the ones where

6:40

the person would talk about why it was

6:43

hard for them to vote for Joe Biden

6:45

But they were gonna do it like the

6:47

more difficult it was for them the more

6:49

persuasive It was because that's what a lot

6:51

of Republicans were doing they were grappling with

6:53

it So we took these testimonials We turned

6:55

them into TV ads the radio ads into

6:57

digital ads into billboards And we create these

6:59

surround sound campaigns where you don't just see

7:02

one voter Saying it one of the things that really

7:04

work about this campaign is that we

7:06

have hundreds of voters who and

7:08

in 2024 We're focused

7:10

on people who voted for Trump twice or at

7:12

least voted for him Once

7:14

but really voted for him twice explaining why they

7:17

can't vote for him again because you are trying

7:19

to peel off Voters who

7:21

have voted for this guy twice, but because of the

7:23

coup because of January 6th maybe because

7:25

of abortion they refused to do it again

7:28

and even if they just Leave

7:30

it blank. That's okay. We are

7:32

trying to diminish enthusiasm and pull people

7:35

off So that's the campaign Tim.

7:37

Do you have a sense of who

7:39

these voters are? demographically where these voters

7:41

are and can you explain to

7:43

all the Potentially skeptical

7:46

libs out there why

7:48

these voters are worth trying to win over

7:51

Well, I'd start by saying our voters are the ones

7:53

that are the most solid at this point So, you

7:55

know, I'm glad you're having us on the wilderness that

7:57

we really need to do more work with young voters

7:59

working class black and Hispanic voters. If you just look at the

8:01

numbers, I was just looking at an analysis right before I got on.

8:04

And right now, again, and some of this is

8:06

a little fuzzy because of polls, but like, you

8:09

know, directionally speaking, if Biden is doing a little

8:11

bit better among rural voters than he was in

8:13

2020, a lot of these are some of the

8:15

people Sarah was just, I think, referencing, which

8:18

are maybe two-time Trump voters that are

8:20

not evangelical Christians, that are not Fox

8:22

News watchers, that rural communities like being

8:25

for Trump is just sort of part of the water they

8:27

swim in. I'm stealing a Sarah phrase there. And the

8:30

abortion thing really matters to them. A lot of these people are

8:32

women, but not all.

8:35

And they can be moved, you know, off

8:37

of Trump. Some of these are the infamous

8:39

Obama Trump voters and we're moving them back,

8:41

you know, over abortion, right? So that's one

8:43

category of people that I think get underappreciated

8:46

in the media. The other category

8:48

of people who Biden's lost a little bit

8:50

of ground with is suburban college

8:52

educated voters. That's more of the, you know,

8:54

me and Sarah types, the Mitt Romney Biden

8:56

voter, as opposed to the Obama Trump voter.

8:59

And the Mitt Romney Biden voter, huge

9:01

gain with them. The increase offset is why

9:03

Biden won, frankly. It's like the Atlanta suburbs

9:05

and turnout among black voters. If you look

9:08

at Georgia, right? Why did Biden win Georgia

9:10

and Hillary didn't? Well, did better

9:12

among black voters, did better in suburban Atlanta. Like

9:14

it's like that simple. It's not like these are

9:16

new people that appeared out of nowhere. They're people

9:18

that used to vote for Republicans and switched. And

9:20

so those are kind of the two groups that

9:22

are in our Bayleywick. I wanted to talk about

9:25

that because I do think there's a couple of

9:27

categories of soft Republicans that we're talking about here.

9:29

They're sort of the Romney Clinton or,

9:31

you know, Trump Biden voters. Romney,

9:34

Gary Johnson, Biden type.

9:36

Right. Yeah. And

9:38

then we're going to talk more about the two time

9:40

Trump voters who are considering maybe not voting

9:43

for him in 24. Sarah,

9:45

how much backsliding are you worried about

9:47

with the specifically the Trump

9:49

Biden voters, the people who switched over

9:51

to Biden in 2020? I'm

9:54

super worried about it here in every

9:56

group. It's not the majority of people in every

9:58

group. But let's say we just did this. So we

10:00

had a group last week and five of them

10:02

were going to stick with Biden and three were going back to

10:04

Trump. Or they were kind of RFK

10:07

curious. I will say it's not just

10:09

that they're going back to Trump. It's more that

10:11

they are turned off from Biden. Like

10:13

they got there for him in 2020 and they

10:15

can't get back there. And this is why, you

10:18

know, when I talk about the persuadables this time

10:20

around, I talk so much about the double haters

10:22

because the double haters can be across all kinds

10:24

of demographics. But a lot of them are these

10:27

sort of Trump to Biden voters

10:29

who took a flyer on Biden because they

10:31

really didn't want to go with Trump again.

10:33

But now they're mad at Biden after four

10:35

years of Biden because they're not Democrats. So

10:38

that's why they're more like a

10:40

lot of them are these RFK curious types.

10:43

And that's okay if there are people who are

10:45

going to vote for Trump and they vote for

10:47

RFK. It is bad if you could get them

10:49

there on Biden and they're going to go for

10:51

RFK. Because as I talk about all the time,

10:54

the biggest coalition in American politics is the

10:56

anti-Trump coalition. It's not a probe Joe Biden

10:58

coalition. It's an anti-Trump coalition. And anything that

11:01

splits the anti-Trump coalition is bad. But if

11:03

RFK is going to be in this race,

11:05

you better make it work for

11:07

you because there are a lot of

11:09

natural overlaps between RFK curious voters and

11:11

people who were willing to vote for

11:13

Trump because he's not a regular politician,

11:16

but are now kind of out on Trump. Is there

11:19

a difference between or how much of a difference is

11:21

there between the Trump Biden voters

11:23

who are now thinking of going back to Trump and

11:26

the two-time Trump voters who are like,

11:28

I might be moving on from Trump

11:30

altogether. They're not that different, actually. The

11:32

two-time Trump voters who are out on Trump are

11:34

just people we just didn't get over the line

11:36

in 2020. They always were holding their nose

11:39

voting for Trump. And like their line

11:41

just happened to be January 6th and

11:43

the coup attempt. My dad

11:45

finally got him over the line in 2021.

11:47

So there's one. Okay, there we go. Your

11:49

dad. Okay. That's a one person focus group.

11:51

Hey, dad. Actually, let me tell you

11:53

about this group because it's a little counterintuitive. They

11:56

are old and they are white and they are

11:58

Ronald Reagan Republicans Who came. There are

12:00

a different reason who they do care

12:02

about the cause it's funny because people

12:04

don't care about democracy per se. but

12:06

like Donald Trump's coup attempt matters a

12:09

great deal to these voters. and it

12:11

is a. Nonstarter. A but you

12:13

can't get them. They are on Joe Biden. I'm

12:15

going to bet. That. One of the things

12:17

we see as a trend. And twenty twenty four. Is

12:20

a shocking number of people leaving The talk of

12:22

of the ticket flight. From these

12:24

republicans. Who just refuse to vote for trump?

12:26

A cat? get on biden and it's they

12:28

were to time. Trump voters. That's good

12:30

you won't. Let's talk about these

12:32

two time Trump voters who are

12:34

now pretty done on Trump. Several

12:37

focus groups with the voters as

12:39

you mention will most common reasons

12:41

they're questioning their support for Trump

12:43

is January Six Little isn't will

12:45

one group of to time Trump

12:47

voters said about that. I

12:50

thinking. You know, really? Ten.off

12:53

the whole situation that

12:55

he. Had to be convinced. Later

12:57

on the data is even issue a

12:59

statement. About. It. Just

13:03

made my blood boil and do I think

13:05

of a while was made out of out

13:07

of what actually happened in the building. I

13:09

do think a lot was was. Was.

13:11

Exaggerated about what happened in the building. But.

13:14

They are concentrating on a couple. Events Meet.

13:17

People. Died one were younger. They don't care how

13:19

they died, I just think there's so much more

13:21

he could have done on that day. You know,

13:24

to kind of united we said it before but

13:26

to be the adult and room to try to

13:28

calm things down. I think. You're.

13:30

That that the large majority of the people that.

13:32

You. Know storm the capital that day probably I

13:35

think would have listened to him. Ah,

13:38

You. Know. But that being said, I do

13:40

think the coverage of it was. You.

13:43

Know over the top. it it

13:45

was trump's responsibility to stop

13:48

their x and a mob

13:50

mentality that that pushed forward

13:52

on buy it on the

13:54

other hand i also blame

13:56

a lot of the media

13:58

for for train the events

14:01

as they did. Definitely a Republican

14:03

group. Yeah, no, I know. No doubt.

14:05

So you can be mad at Trump for how

14:08

he acted on January 6th, even

14:10

as you might think the media

14:12

exaggerated its importance as some of these people

14:14

did. Or you can be so mad that

14:17

you think it makes Trump unfit to ever

14:19

hold office again. What's your

14:21

sense of whether the salience of January

14:23

6th can become a deciding

14:25

issue for these two-time Trump

14:27

voters? I think it can be. Here's one

14:30

of the key elements of January 6th. It

14:32

happened after they voted for him the second time.

14:35

So they don't have to go back and say, I was

14:38

wrong. With the information they had, they felt like

14:40

they made the choice, this is new information since

14:42

they voted for him last time. And

14:44

I think that one of the things right

14:46

now in this very moment that is a

14:48

struggle for really getting those

14:50

people to get their blood back

14:52

up against Trump is that

14:55

him being in court talking about Stormy Daniels

14:57

is incredibly backward looking. I'm not saying it

14:59

helps him the way some people do. I'm

15:02

just saying that it is not allowing

15:04

people to look forward. And

15:06

what you need is to sort of take

15:08

January 6th as you're jumping off point. And

15:10

then you need to paint a picture of

15:12

the future of Donald Trump, a lunatic surrounded

15:14

by lunatics. But January 6th has to be

15:17

at the center of why you cannot trust

15:19

this guy in office again, because there are

15:21

a lot of people for whom when

15:23

they see that footage and when that salience

15:26

eye for them, they go, oh, yeah, I

15:28

can't do it again. I

15:56

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15:58

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16:26

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16:30

A veterinarian? That's awesome. And I'm gonna be

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you wanna be a plumber-narian? Do you

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Bursting with energy? Feeling

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it's really hard when we're now out

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social suite. I'm

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going to be a veg-tay- veterinarian?

18:03

That's awesome. And I'm going to be

18:05

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18:07

So you want to be a plumber-narian?

18:09

Do you think I can? I

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18:36

I was going to ask you that too, because you hear from

18:38

a lot of pundits and pollsters, especially

18:40

Democrats, who say that

18:42

January 6th is backwards-looking and

18:45

it's already baked into people's views about Trump and

18:47

what most people care about is the future and

18:49

what's going to affect them. How

18:51

do you make Trump's actions

18:53

on January 6th an

18:55

issue that is something that

18:57

could affect people's lives in the future if he

19:00

wins again? Just really quick, though, I

19:02

think this offers a psychological misunderstanding of these voters.

19:05

These people just want to have excuses to

19:07

come back home to being Republicans. These are

19:09

Republicans. They watch Fox, obviously, as you could

19:11

tell by that group. We'll get into a

19:13

little bit of their media diet more, I

19:15

think. But they,

19:17

though, when they get reminded of things

19:19

about Trump that make their blood boil,

19:23

it moves them again. They

19:25

have to get re-reminded. I've

19:27

lived through this for nine years. People

19:30

in my life will message me when he

19:32

does something terrible. He's like, that's it. I'm done.

19:35

I'm sick of it. You were right. I don't get you

19:37

were right as much, so I'm like, in your head, that's what they're

19:39

saying. The subtext was that I was right.

19:42

And then a couple weeks go by,

19:44

something else happens. They go to the

19:46

grocery store, butter's costing a lot. They get

19:48

a void. And they're back. You know

19:50

what I mean? They're back to not liking Trump.

19:52

These aren't MAGA people, but they're back to, well,

19:54

the Democrats and socialism and all that. So

19:57

you have to be constantly reminding them about what

19:59

they're doing. why they hate him. He's got to

20:01

be in their face. And I

20:03

think this is a big difference in

20:06

16. He was out of their face the

20:08

last two weeks because of Hillary, the emails,

20:10

and we don't need to trigger everybody with

20:12

that. So I think that just using opportunities

20:15

to remind people of the nature of the threat

20:17

of him, but also about what they hate about

20:19

him, some of that can be

20:21

future looking. Some of that can be like, remember

20:23

that thing you really don't like? That could happen

20:25

again. Something similar to that could happen again. That

20:27

could have a real impact on your life. I

20:31

think that that is worthwhile in doing.

20:33

I understand why logically you're like, why

20:35

would you do an ad about January

20:37

6th on Halloween of 2024? But it's

20:40

like the people, they need

20:42

to be triggered. We got to trigger them into not voting

20:44

for him. Yeah. It makes

20:46

me think of, in that long interview

20:48

with the New Yorker, Mike Donilon, who's

20:50

Biden's chief strategist said, it's

20:52

all about what you want people to have in their

20:55

mind when they go to the polls and we want

20:57

them to have jobs and

20:59

democracy January 6th in mind as they go

21:01

to the polls. Yeah. Sarah, do you agree

21:03

with that? I 100% agree. And I talk

21:05

about this with abortion a lot. When we do the focus

21:08

groups, it's open with the same question. How do you think

21:10

things are going in the country? And people are always like

21:12

bad and they talk about inflation and they talk about the

21:14

price of their houses and they talk about crime and they

21:16

talk about immigration. And then you ask

21:18

about abortion and all of

21:20

a sudden, I wish this happens every time,

21:22

especially the women in the group. Suddenly people

21:25

are talking about the abortions that they had.

21:27

They're talking about their own catastrophic pregnancy. They

21:29

are crying and bonding with one another. And

21:31

you're like, make

21:33

abortion, put it at the

21:36

top of their minds. The salience of these things,

21:38

the salience of January 6th, the salience

21:41

of reproductive rights. If you take your foot off that,

21:43

if you let this be about Biden and you let

21:45

it be about the economy, even if the economy is

21:47

good, like that is not good for Biden. If you

21:49

make it about Trump, if you make it about abortion,

21:51

if you make it about January 6th and you raise

21:53

the salience of those things so that that's what people

21:55

are thinking about when they go into the voting booth,

21:57

like, I just, we just can't have that.

22:00

again. That's where you got to get people. Yeah.

22:02

So the issue that precipitated January 6th

22:04

is Trump's attempt to overturn a free

22:06

and fair election that he still says

22:08

he won, even says he won

22:11

states like Minnesota, that Joe Biden won by 7%. Sarah,

22:14

you guys have done groups with two-time Trump

22:16

voters who don't believe the election was fraudulent.

22:18

Let's listen. Maybe this

22:20

is a bit cynical or a lot cynical

22:23

that at a federal election level, we've

22:25

been doing this for 200 years and we've

22:27

been people been dead. People have been voting

22:29

for more than 200 years and I don't

22:31

know that that's going to change ever to

22:33

be blunt, whether you got to show a

22:35

driver's license or not or whatever the technology

22:37

leads us to in that regard. So I

22:39

think there's always some amount, but I don't

22:41

think it was enough to swing any

22:44

particular state, maybe a precinct, maybe even

22:46

a municipality. But I

22:48

don't think enough to change the

22:50

election itself. There's always some votes

22:53

that show up bundled

22:55

or people get a couple

22:58

of copies of mail-in or

23:00

what have you. I

23:03

think that's, I don't think that's fraud. I think

23:05

that's just a bureaucracy. That's just

23:07

what happens. We're not very good at

23:09

that. Nobody is. All the paperwork. So

23:12

I don't think there was an effort to throw the election

23:15

and I don't think there was enough that did throw

23:17

the election. It was like

23:19

62, I think, different lawsuits

23:22

to prove that there

23:24

was something wrong with

23:26

the elections and he lost them all. So

23:29

there was no evidence. There was only evidence

23:31

of him tinkering

23:34

around and trying to do

23:36

illegal things to change,

23:41

you know, I need 11,780 votes. There's

23:46

always a little bit of,

23:48

I don't know if it's on

23:50

purpose or if it's mistakes or

23:52

if it's whatever, but the

23:55

number was so small, it was something like 0.002%. Happens

24:00

all the time. I think

24:02

they will involve a challenge

24:04

to all elections in the

24:07

future, and I also believe

24:09

that groups of individual citizens

24:11

will always strive to disrupt

24:13

the certification of the elections

24:15

because it's proven that that

24:18

can be tested and the

24:20

only mistake that they made

24:22

was they didn't have enough.

24:25

Ah, Military of mine. To.

24:27

Go in and actually I'm.

24:30

Make. It more severe. Yikes. So

24:32

season the polling that there's roughly.

24:35

Thirty. Percent of Republican voters who believe

24:37

the truth about the election. The Turbine

24:39

One. Tim Similar to what I ask

24:41

about January Six. Like. I guess what

24:43

I want to know if I. Didn't. Have both those

24:46

issues are just the same january six and

24:48

stuff him trying to overturn the election in

24:50

the minds of the voters or like, how

24:52

would you make that a big issue for

24:54

people are you think it will be a

24:56

big issue for people? The idea that he

24:58

continues to say that he won the election.

25:00

Year. I think that. This

25:03

is more of it affect to been cause

25:05

of sort of inverse I've had another I

25:08

taught him talking about it that matters more

25:10

but that these voters reveal themselves as potentially

25:12

get home right like the people that believe

25:15

that it's that the truth about the elections

25:17

I think are right target for biden at

25:19

very least two to get them off of

25:21

Trump. And and then I think that in

25:24

a democracy and the gym or six elements

25:26

are are arguments that you can use with

25:28

those groups. I. Looked like is thirty

25:30

percent like. on one hand it's like shockingly

25:32

low, right? Thirty percent of republicans believe the

25:34

truth about the election. That's like pretty alarming.

25:36

that's a ton of people at like thirty

25:38

million people, rights and and so I love

25:40

hearing that from these groups. As a reminder

25:43

it's like oh yes, tear people to believe

25:45

that bureaucracy of bloated dead people vote. There

25:47

are a lot of fraud and elections by

25:49

I Donald Trump Still liar right? Like you

25:51

don't think about that person your mind's eye

25:53

right the first year of figure out of

25:55

the the like I think out of the

25:57

wire on were in the Red Hat might

25:59

listen to Maria. at Rommel, right? And so

26:01

like that type of person, I think if you

26:03

keep them in your mind's eye, they

26:05

can be persuaded on this

26:07

stuff because they've lost trust in him. And

26:10

at minimum, they can be moved off of

26:12

him into this anti-Trump coalition Sarah's talking about.

26:14

I think then there's

26:16

other challenges related to how you can then

26:18

persuade them conceivably to come to the other

26:21

side. Sarah, what else have you heard from

26:23

these voters about how they view the salience

26:25

of Trump's election lies?

26:28

Yeah, well, I've been obsessed with this 30%, both the

26:30

number, because

26:33

it shows up in other places. Like a lot

26:35

of the polls that ask, would you vote differently?

26:37

Would it impact your vote if Trump's convicted of

26:39

a crime among self-ideated Republicans, roughly 30% in

26:42

states where Nikki Haley was actively contesting the election,

26:44

self-ideated Republican, she was getting about 30% of the

26:46

vote. So like, this is the persuadable people. So

26:48

I live with these people in my head. Who

26:50

are they? What do they think? And as I

26:52

was digging in on the election stuff in particular,

26:54

you know, it's a little disheartening because you sort

26:56

of wanted to hear for them say, yeah, this

26:59

guy's insane. And of course the election was free and

27:01

fair, but like, that's not what they say. They say

27:03

dead people vote. Of course, there's fraud, but they basically

27:05

say like not enough to really turn things

27:08

over. But what was interesting is that this

27:10

30% of people or these people who don't think it was

27:12

stolen have a few things in common. One, they've

27:15

got a diverse media mix that they ingest.

27:17

And by diverse media mix, I don't mean

27:19

Fox News and then Steve Bannon, and then

27:21

you know, Tim Poole. I mean, that they

27:24

flip around from Fox and CNN and their

27:26

local news and local news is really big.

27:28

And like one of the things we've just

27:30

found is people who are in this persuadable

27:33

category tend to be less plugged into cable

27:35

and a little more plugged into their local

27:38

channels and like what's going on in their in their

27:40

home state, which has an advertising opportunity. Like I think

27:43

about that when I think about how to reach these

27:45

folks. The other thing that's jumped out is that if

27:48

they really believe the election was free and fair, they

27:50

tended to have either proximity to people

27:52

who worked on elections. Like they're like, I know

27:54

somebody who worked on the election. One guy was

27:56

in Maricopa County. He'd worked on the election himself

27:59

or the had states with these recounts. This

28:02

one's where they had a ton of recounts, which are in

28:04

the contested swing states. They were like, I don't know. They

28:06

looked at this 100 times. There

28:08

was no fraud. Nobody could find it. The

28:11

cyber ninjas didn't catch anybody. The bamboo wasn't

28:13

there. And so they're like, I think that

28:15

it was fine. And then the third

28:17

thing that was interesting about them is they just had a

28:19

higher level of trust in the system overall. They

28:21

tended to talk about checks and

28:23

balances like, I don't know, this

28:25

is America and we do elections

28:27

okay. And it probably aren't switching

28:29

the votes with the machines. And

28:32

so that is sort of something that they

28:34

all have in common that I think is

28:36

an interesting picture of who our voter is

28:39

to persuade. I saw you quoted

28:41

in this Bloomberg piece this week

28:43

about the possibility of

28:45

Trump serving a third term or

28:48

maybe forever. And that that's something

28:50

that's coming up in different focus

28:53

groups that different people are doing from

28:55

undecided voters who are actually, that's like

28:57

one of their big concerns that either

29:00

he'll stay forever or there'll be a

29:02

Trump family monarchy and we'll be doing

29:04

this till Barron's president. What's

29:07

your sense of how salient that could be as an

29:09

argument? How effective that could be? Yeah.

29:12

I mean, because people are, I mean, it is

29:14

coming up in groups where they're just like, I'm

29:16

not sure he'll leave or like he might run

29:18

again. And sometimes there's actually some people who say

29:20

that and it doesn't matter that much to them.

29:22

Like it's fine. Okay. And cool

29:25

Trump forever. But for a lot of people,

29:27

this idea of he won't leave, he won't

29:29

abide by the rules matters. And

29:32

that is a January 6 argument. And this

29:34

is, this is what I mean about like

29:36

January 6 aliens. It's not just about January

29:38

6. It's not just about the visuals of

29:40

the cops getting hit and things we've seen sort

29:42

of over and over again. It's this is the

29:44

kind of guy he is. He is a lunatic who

29:46

will be surrounded by other lunatics and he won't leave.

29:48

And you tell people that and they're like, yeah,

29:50

that's, that'd be a real problem if

29:53

he just didn't leave. Uh, maybe I shouldn't

29:55

vote him in. Yeah. I mean, it sounds like

29:57

like liberal alarmism to be like, Oh

29:59

God, This. Could be your last election the last time

30:01

you get to vote and he'll be there forever. but

30:03

it it does feel like. A. It

30:05

has the benefit of being potentially true and

30:08

be we do have some evidence that he

30:10

tried to do that last time. When you

30:12

think them. Yeah. I. Like.

30:14

And this is where I think the are that

30:16

projects important having this come from regular people's voices

30:18

rather than like Barack Obama spokesperson I don't I

30:21

probably don't think you're that compelling of a messenger.

30:23

We don't want to put you on Tv in

30:25

Maricopa County them as using speech writer site on

30:27

around me as time is that affects now Baths

30:29

assisted. Ah, so I

30:31

think Messenger matters here. And. I'll

30:34

you know. I think that. A.

30:36

Compelling persuasion message is more

30:38

like. Risky is I think

30:41

that Nikki Haley talked about this chaos.

30:43

Risky? I might stay utter ice is

30:45

or the fact that we're talking about

30:47

this ridiculous that you might be worried

30:49

about this like isn't this a risk

30:51

worth taking and so they give you.

30:53

kind of combine that with may be

30:55

somewhere in there periphery they like they're

30:58

seeing. Ads on social media

31:00

that feature down. From making jokes about this

31:02

like sticks in there had I think that

31:04

can be a potent kind of one to

31:06

combo to try to just make the pits

31:09

to these voters that this isn't worth the

31:11

risk and make it really back to being

31:13

at election about Trump right? Not like a

31:15

choice, not a biden Trump's way selection and

31:17

I think that also goes back to the

31:20

silence. And. Not democracy. Like

31:22

yes same democracy doesn't mean anything

31:24

to people but like do won't

31:26

leave his. Mean something really like

31:28

laid, Get a man my air with capital

31:30

My get charged like who knows, like a

31:32

might put his family in charge of the

31:35

military as he just don't know. Like risky

31:37

A good stuff like resist. Worth it right?

31:39

I guess less than these you know high

31:41

minded principal sale Jon Meacham. Love Jon Meacham.

31:43

but you know? Yeah, Now on of the

31:45

key out of a huge going to be

31:47

a persuasive messenger to these voters either. Now

31:50

I so we're A. We're on the verge

31:52

of a verdict in what may be the

31:54

only Trump criminal trial the happens before the

31:56

election. Polling suggests that. Most voters aren't paying

31:58

close attention in the the fact. The from

32:00

being on trial for felony charges hasn't really

32:02

changed many opinions that there's also a good

32:05

deal of polling that suggests that may change

32:07

if he found guilty ah sorry you guys

32:09

As and Trump voters who supported Nikki Haley

32:11

in the primary. but these trials or let's

32:14

hear what they had to set. The

32:16

most damaging phase will be be trying

32:19

to overthrow of the election. That.

32:21

Is for to booth. So.

32:24

Much all. The other cases

32:26

it says overeating and. I

32:29

don't think is gonna go anywhere and out

32:31

thing you can get conviction. It's

32:33

just a waste of tax payer

32:35

money. When. He became president.

32:38

Ah, they were democrats in Congress saying

32:40

they wanted to impeach him before he

32:42

even certain than day in office. And

32:44

there's been nothing. Short

32:46

of of that effort to. You

32:50

know, muddy the waters and and make him

32:52

look bad from the very beginning. Of

32:55

all that the cases, the one that I

32:57

think probably is the most serious is they're.

33:00

Classified. Documents. but then Baden had

33:02

classified documents and even pence. ended up

33:04

with class and saying oh wait, I

33:06

found one in my house to which

33:08

is makes me think they're all rather

33:11

callous. It seems to me like.

33:15

Liberals the in the country are say.

33:18

Donald. Trump's or criminal. Let's find a

33:20

crime dependably. Let's throw all that stuff

33:22

against the wall, see what sticks? On.

33:26

His. I think it's all. It's all

33:28

publicly motivated. Clearly, you look at the

33:30

platforms of the state, prosecutors and attorney

33:33

General's You were yeah, that one. It

33:35

who ended up prosecuting. That

33:38

was their platforms. I'm going to get Trump

33:40

Boat Man I'm going to get Trump. Or.

33:42

An idea. The Sarah guy on our yard

33:44

I kid now like to see arrived at

33:47

fifth. Ask them. For

33:49

a fifty. i

33:51

let's say blood pressure's got some

33:53

twenty focus approval a custom fit

33:55

to feel it's let's let's live

33:57

in a a wonderful world where

34:00

Trump is found guilty in the Manhattan case.

34:03

We got a convicted felon running

34:05

for president. Is that not

34:07

an argument we should be making to

34:09

those undecided voters? Like what do you

34:12

guys think? 100%, 100%. People are doing a

34:14

weird thing right now. So first of all, if he is

34:16

acquitted, it is an actual

34:19

disaster. Like the downside of acquittal,

34:21

so much bigger than upside of a conviction,

34:24

which is just the terrible world that we live in. However,

34:26

a conviction matters. And

34:29

one of the things that I'm kind of pushing people

34:31

on on TV, there's this like way

34:33

that people say, well, you know, this

34:35

is all just helping Trump, all helps

34:37

Trump. If he, even if he's convicted,

34:39

it helps Trump. That's primary analysis. Yes,

34:41

with base voters, this stuff who

34:43

think that it is rigged, who thinks it's a

34:46

two-tiered justice system and thinks that they're out to

34:48

get Trump, helps them, those people are all gonna

34:50

vote for Trump anyway. Doesn't matter. These swing voters

34:52

and the people who are on the fence, who

34:54

have to hold their nose, him being a convicted

34:57

felon will matter and does matter. And look, you

34:59

can tell me that it's marginal, and

35:01

I'll tell you, cool, because margins are

35:03

gonna decide this entire ballgame. So I'll

35:05

take marginal as a marginal effect. Yeah.

35:08

Tim, what do you think? I got no fucking idea. I

35:11

honestly just don't. I don't know, it's not what I'm

35:13

supposed to do, but I just, I don't know. I've

35:15

got no idea. I could see it making a difference.

35:17

I could see it not. These voters don't know either,

35:19

right? Like the focus groups actually don't tell us anything

35:21

on this really. And you learn a little bit about

35:23

how they think, which I think is important, but like

35:25

the specific question, like you heard that guy, he

35:28

was like, I don't even think he's gonna be convicted. So

35:30

like, what is that? What does it, do they, do any

35:32

of them, again, not the maggots,

35:34

do any of the people that have a media

35:36

mix, most of these folks are

35:39

college educated, like the types, most people

35:41

have people in their lives that are not Republican. Like

35:43

does that group, do any of

35:45

them start to see him differently when he's a

35:47

felon, start to think about it differently? Maybe,

35:49

I don't know, maybe not. I

35:52

really, I think it's very hard to say. And

35:54

it's annoying, it's frustrating. I mean, and there was

35:56

some really damning testimony here in this thing, like

35:59

how about how, Daniel's talking about how he

36:01

would like essentially coerced her into sex

36:03

with a security guard standing outside But you would think

36:05

people would not want that person to be president But

36:07

um, I don't know I don't think we

36:09

have a lot of evidence of that at this point But

36:11

part of this is he's let's say there's a guilty verdict.

36:14

It's all over the news for

36:16

a couple days It even filters

36:18

down to local news, right? It breaks

36:21

through everywhere. And then the question is

36:23

do Democratic

36:25

campaigns Does Sarah's campaign

36:27

to other groups? Do you keep pushing that

36:29

message to keep reminding people of it between

36:32

now and November because then by September it's

36:34

like oh, yeah He's just he's just a

36:36

convicted felon But we don't really talk about

36:38

that anymore because we've all moved on and

36:41

that that's sort of the question that I have Sarah What do you

36:43

think? Well, we would be making a mistake if we

36:45

failed to mention if he's a convicted felon

36:47

And we're not talking about that. That's on

36:49

us. You absolutely should be talking about it

36:51

Joe Biden should be talking about it a

36:54

lot of good material and this

36:56

guy a lot of orange jokes

36:58

orange jumpsuits I mean, I'm just

37:00

there's you and Yeah,

37:03

but that they did being able to and again

37:05

This is why I go to like the acquittal

37:07

is so much worse like a conviction It does

37:09

give you something to push and also get this

37:11

guy out of the courtroom Get him out there

37:13

so that he is in people's faces Tim was

37:15

talking about this before I also think it's very

37:17

important that Trump be high salience Because

37:20

if it's a referendum on Biden Biden loses if

37:22

it's a referendum on Trump Trump loses And so

37:24

we got to get Trump talking to us the

37:26

media's got to cover him They got to take

37:28

the insane things that he's saying at these Trump

37:31

rallies live But get

37:33

him out of court with a conviction And

37:37

he will be he'll be nuts about

37:39

it He will be so upset and then push

37:41

him on it all the time I

37:44

do think it matters to these marginal swing voters who

37:46

are not paying attention. Listen, here's the thing about this

37:48

This is what I was gonna disagree with Tim about Nobody's

37:51

follow in this case the court stuff. I mean,

37:53

they're just like and they can't follow it They don't

37:55

know who these people are. They don't know the characters.

37:58

I mean unless you're and and because they can't see

38:00

what's happening in the courtroom, they're getting the stuff filtered. And

38:02

so one of the most interesting, I was talking to a

38:04

group the other day and the woman was talking about how,

38:07

well, I turn on Fox and I think the case is

38:09

going to get thrown out. And then

38:11

I turn on ABC and Trump's going to jail. And

38:13

she's like, what is even happening here? What's

38:15

going on? Because they're getting it through these

38:17

media filters. And so I think that people

38:19

still trust the courts and

38:21

jury of your peers more

38:24

than they trust other things. I'm not saying it's like

38:26

the highest thing, but they trust it. And to say

38:28

a jury of his peers convicted him of this on

38:30

top of the E. Jean Carroll stuff, but this is

38:33

like a real, that

38:35

was a civil case. This is a criminal case. And so

38:37

I just think it matters. I do.

38:40

I think it, again, not to everybody, but you are talking

38:42

about 10,000 votes one way or the

38:44

other across six states. Before

38:46

we move on from this group, these were

38:48

voters who cast their ballots

38:50

for Nikki Haley in the primary. There's

38:53

been a lot of excitement in the

38:55

anti-Trump universe about the,

38:58

even after she dropped out, she's still getting like

39:00

15, 20% in some places in some of these

39:02

primaries. What's your sense

39:04

of, okay, some of these voters could

39:06

just be, I mean, there is the like,

39:08

yeah, Democrats just voted in the Republican primary.

39:11

There's also a lot of these voters could just

39:13

be Republicans who already voted for Joe Biden

39:16

in 2020. And

39:18

so they're just continuing with

39:20

just voting against Trump. What's your sense

39:23

of like, how many are truly

39:25

just like maybe these two time

39:27

Trump voters who were potentially

39:29

done with him? And that was there. And the

39:32

signal for that is that we're voting for Nikki

39:34

Haley in the primary. Tim and I sort

39:36

of disagree on this. We've been fighting about

39:38

this on our show for a while. And

39:40

here's what I'll say. Look, in

39:42

that Nikki Haley cohort, there are people who

39:44

already voted for Joe Biden. There are people who are going

39:46

to go home to Trump. Then the rest are the double

39:48

haters, right? That you were trying to get make them

39:51

hate Trump more than they hate Biden. Right.

39:54

And that's what you're fighting over. Here's what I have

39:56

found encouraging about it is

39:59

that in these. States where they are

40:01

closed primaries, meaning that, you know,

40:03

libs can't vote. No, there are

40:05

people who are motivated enough. Nikki

40:07

Haley is not on the ballot and hasn't been on, or

40:09

she's on it technically, but she hasn't been in the race

40:12

for months and people are getting up

40:14

to go out and vote against Trump. They're

40:16

not voting for Nikki Haley. This is not

40:18

a pro Nikki Haley coalition. They care enough

40:20

to go vote against Donald Trump.

40:22

And I think that that expresses

40:24

something about enthusiasm, meaning

40:27

sort of enthusiasm against Trump.

40:29

And I think that that matters. I have found that

40:31

encouraging. I don't think that every person in that cohort,

40:33

you can just be like, ooh, well, this means 150,000

40:35

people in Pennsylvania. Uh,

40:38

you know, we've got our lock on. Um, but

40:40

I do think it matters. Yeah. I'm

40:42

just, I'm just not as excited about this as everybody else.

40:44

I'm sorry. I don't, I hate to be the Debbie downer.

40:47

Um, there's some good part. I, here's the good part about it.

40:50

And this is what I'm saying. Our people are solid. My

40:53

people, Sarah's people like the,

40:56

the college educated, highly engaged,

40:58

reading the news, anti-Trump

41:00

Republicans. Most of them already

41:02

voted against him in 2020. Most

41:04

of them have been turning out to vote

41:07

against Kerry Lake and Blake masters and Doug

41:09

Mastriano in the midterms. And

41:11

they're also, and they're turning up again to

41:13

vote against Donald Trump in the primary. And

41:16

so like, that's good news. Like there is

41:18

like one of the most highly engaged demos

41:21

against Donald Trump is our people. So, so like

41:23

our people do matter. Um, in that

41:26

sense, I just, like the number isn't as

41:28

big as it seems, right? Like, so when you look at

41:30

that 20%, it's like, well, that's not 20% of the whole

41:32

Republican electorate. That's 20% of the people

41:34

that turned out. Right. Right. And, and

41:36

as Sarah said, the anti-Trump Republicans are

41:39

very excited to turn out. So our people are

41:41

turning out at a disproportionate rate. Um,

41:44

and many of them already voted for Joe Biden. Many

41:46

of them already voted for Democrats in the midterms. Um,

41:49

and so that's A good thing

41:51

that they're still motivated, right? Could be worse,

41:53

right? They could be not, not motivated. They

41:55

could be mad about Joe Biden because of

41:57

student loan bailout or whatever. They could be.

42:00

Mad at you know, the job. I never been

42:02

nicer to Bb or whatever and not turning out

42:04

anymore. So it's good news that they're still engaged.

42:07

But it's just not quite as good News

42:09

is it might like seem on it's face.

42:11

I think there are other people there are

42:14

doubleheaders in there. There are people voted for

42:16

Trump place in there that are general. I

42:18

think that the Joe Biden like like has

42:20

is awesome now group in all the states

42:23

have any when the voted by mail you

42:25

know. Okay we now know that these are

42:27

rational people. In I'll Give you A

42:29

to Pennsylvania was crazy Like Nikki Haley got like time

42:32

among male voters and then lost ninety to ten on

42:34

election night. You know? So now we know. You know

42:36

if you look at a who requested a male ballot.

42:38

Like. That somebody, the Joe Biden people can it

42:40

go knock on their door and think that these

42:43

people in a don't believe that Hugo Chavez aunts

42:45

and like the Pillow man in Astoria you know

42:47

like were part of a. Pot. Steal

42:49

the election self. That's good, I'm so there's some

42:51

good parts is is not quite as good as

42:53

I think that maybe it's made out to. Be. When.

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44:30

right, let's wrap up with how to

44:32

actually communicate with these gettable two-time Trump

44:47

voters. We've been talking a little bit

44:49

about media diet and how

44:51

that differentiates them. Let's

44:53

play a clip of one of the groups talking about

44:55

their media diet. I don't have

44:58

a single source. I don't really trust

45:00

anybody. Usually what happens is I'll either

45:02

hear of something. I've deleted all of

45:04

my social media because I'm just tired

45:07

of algorithmic news. And

45:10

so if I hear something, I'll look

45:12

up information about it and try

45:14

to get multiple sources because there's usually a

45:16

spin in one way or the other. And

45:19

so the truth is somewhere in

45:21

between there. Primarily NPR, but

45:24

I switch between different channels and just

45:26

compare the news. So I know that

45:28

some media are leaning towards Republicans, some

45:31

leaning towards the left, and it's good

45:33

to listen to both channels and then formulate their

45:35

own opinion. If I see a story that interests

45:38

me out, if it leads

45:40

me to CNN at first, I'll go

45:42

to Fox News After and maybe check

45:44

some of the other ones like BBC

45:46

or NPR or whatever. The process I

45:49

have to go through is to filter

45:51

the news from each source as to

45:53

what their agendas are, how thorough they

45:55

are, how balanced, what agendas they have,

45:58

what the editorial bias is. And

46:00

then you have to filter that and

46:02

form your own thoughts in

46:04

addition to some anecdotal things.

46:07

Sarah, you were talking about this a little bit earlier,

46:09

but what does this tell you about their media diet?

46:12

What does that tell you about like where and how

46:14

to break through to these voters? Yeah.

46:16

So can I just tell you one thing that I

46:18

find to be a conundrum or an enigma about these

46:20

folks is that I don't know if they

46:24

seem more rational to us. I think

46:26

that some of those people aren't lying about their media

46:28

consumption. So I will

46:30

say the number of times that people say BBC

46:32

in the groups, I'm like, no way. No chance.

46:34

But this many people watch BBC. This happened at

46:36

all the wilderness groups I did last season. I

46:38

heard BBC all the time. I was like, what

46:40

is going on? It's so funny. It sounds good,

46:42

I think. It sounds smart. Like the

46:45

one guy said NPR, then the other lady's like,

46:47

you know, I look at other things like whatever,

46:49

like NPR, like you don't have an NPR. I'm

46:51

sorry. So like there's some distrust. So

46:54

I think that's true, Tim, that they are reaching

46:56

in this moment to be like, I want to

46:58

sound smart and like I, you know, whatever. That

47:00

being said, I think there is something about people

47:02

who are this is where I was going to

47:04

say the enigma is like the chicken or egg.

47:07

Are they naturally curious and

47:09

therefore seeking out more

47:11

disparate opinions that I want to see

47:13

things that might disagree with me or

47:16

are they changing their

47:18

mind because they

47:21

go around, you know, checking out other things, you

47:23

know, like I sort of don't know which is

47:25

the driver of it. I suspect it's a little

47:27

bit of both that they are like naturally curious

47:29

people who want to see what, okay, well, I

47:31

know that Fox News is biased to the right.

47:33

I think MSNBC is biased to the left. I'm

47:35

going to go. I'm going to go watch

47:37

both and like see if I can figure it out for myself. That's

47:40

good to know about a person though, because

47:42

it means that those are the types of

47:44

people who are open to persuasion. They pursue

47:47

persuasion, right? They pursue

47:50

alternate set of details to like

47:52

learn a lot about it. And so if

47:54

you know people like that or sort of watching

47:56

local news or they're checking things like

47:59

that's good for. knowing how to target them and

48:01

how to think about, like, we run a

48:03

lot of ads now on local news because I've

48:05

been listening to voters talk about a media diet

48:08

that includes local news and that that is like

48:10

one of the number one things that indicates they

48:12

don't believe the election was stolen. Yeah.

48:14

Like I watch more local news than cable. So Sarah,

48:17

you said before that we're not building a

48:19

pro Biden coalition. We're building an anti-Trump coalition.

48:22

So obviously it's a win if we get someone to just leave

48:25

the top of the ballot blank. It's

48:27

even better if we can get someone to actually vote

48:30

for Joe Biden. What

48:32

are the biggest reservations about Biden with a

48:34

lot of these voters and what

48:37

do you think is the best way to help these

48:39

voters overcome these reservations? I'm going to

48:41

blow your mind with this take. It's because he's old.

48:45

I mean, that's it. And left, right and center,

48:47

people talk about just feeling like they can't

48:49

connect with him. Like they

48:51

know he's old. They don't think he's up to the

48:53

job. And that's just what you hear.

48:55

There's a reason the media talks about it. So that's what voters

48:58

talk about. Even the ones who are

49:00

deeply sympathetic to Joe Biden do this thing where they

49:02

like crouch and they say, I just get so worried

49:04

when he talks and when he walks, like I want to make sure

49:06

he's okay. I want to like help him. They're like,

49:08

you know, they can see them like reaching for him to

49:10

steady him. And and

49:12

so, look, I think that that's a big

49:14

part of the problem, which is why I do

49:16

think it's much more about a negative campaign

49:19

on Trump this time. And I also think

49:21

here's the other thing, though, that voters really

49:23

understand. They understand the president doesn't do it

49:25

alone, which is why for Trump, you have

49:27

to make sure they know he is a lunatic who

49:29

will be surrounded by other lunatics and

49:31

that Joe Biden is an old but good

49:34

man surrounded by young and good people like

49:36

like you have to I do think that

49:38

they're I'm just a big advocate

49:40

for a much more robust surrogate game a

49:42

much more much more investment in voters knowing

49:44

who the people are who are around Joe

49:47

Biden because voters talk about it all the

49:49

time that they know it's not just him.

49:52

And so you got to sort of give them a sense that

49:54

because they're just afraid. Does he have it for the next

49:56

four years? The world feels dangerous. The

49:58

economy feels precarious. Whether that's true or

50:01

not, that's how they feel about it. And so they

50:03

want somebody who can do the job. And even though

50:05

Trump is not that much younger, he

50:07

does have big lunatic energy. And

50:09

so when people are just like smelling the vibes,

50:12

they see Trump and they think he seems not

50:14

sane exactly, but more up to it.

50:16

Yeah. Tim, is it pretty

50:18

much just age or what else are you hearing

50:21

in your many chat groups with

50:23

people who are still Trump

50:25

curious Republicans? Yeah, I mean, I

50:27

think that my, I think it's selection bias. And

50:29

I think that there is a small but vocal

50:31

group of people that are upset with them about

50:33

Israel. I don't know that that's very representative about

50:35

what's happening in Arizona. I trust Sarah's

50:37

focus groups on this more than, you know, people

50:39

that text me that used to work for Mitt

50:42

Romney or whatever. I don't think that's representative of

50:44

the mean voter. Look,

50:46

I think this, like the sister soldier

50:48

thing is so stupid and so overplayed people don't even

50:50

remember what really happened. That's a side thing that, you

50:52

know, folks can Google the real story there. Joe

50:55

Biden reassuring people that he's not going to go in

50:57

with the far left. Would help.

50:59

There's like a weird like media-driven

51:02

view that Joe Biden's big problem is with

51:04

the progressive left. He's got some problems over

51:06

there. But like if you just look at

51:08

the data, his problem is actually with centrist

51:11

black and Latino people, you

51:13

know, mostly that's like the group. Some people

51:15

don't even think exist, right? So

51:18

some liberals, right? They down

51:20

like 20% with them. Like if you

51:22

look at where he was in 16 versus now, you just look

51:24

at the again polls caveat, but like I just

51:27

based on all the data we have, like that's the

51:29

group like center left black and Latino people are the

51:31

ones that he's down with the

51:33

most. So that's also true about our people

51:35

are mostly center folks. And so

51:38

just kind of reassuring. He's not, you know, going

51:40

to be a socialist. I think would be helpful.

51:43

We all know that, you know, we know that's kind

51:45

of silly to be concerned about that, but but

51:47

people need to hear it. And

51:49

besides that, it's just anti-Trump. I'm sorry. I

51:52

like Trump has to be disqualified period. People

51:54

have to be too freaked out. That's the

51:56

campaign. I like winning people over for Joe

51:58

Biden. I think

52:00

spending a lot of effort and energy on that is

52:03

probably a fool's errand. And like almost all of the

52:05

energy needs to be on totally disqualifying Trump in these

52:07

people's eyes and making them feel like they're too scared

52:09

to vote for him. All right.

52:11

Final question. You have someone in

52:13

your life who is a past Trump voter,

52:16

either two-time Trump voter, or maybe they voted

52:18

for him once and then went to Biden.

52:20

And now they're not sure what they're going

52:22

to do. They're still undecided. You got a

52:24

couple minutes to persuade this person to

52:26

not vote for Donald Trump. What

52:29

do you say? I've got a system. Sarah,

52:31

you can think about yours because here's mine so far.

52:33

We'll see if I don't know yet. I've been stress

52:35

testing this, but I say, what do you think

52:37

the chances are that Donald Trump won't leave? I'll

52:40

let them answer the question. A lot of times people are like,

52:42

come on. And I'm like, no, like, what do you think the

52:44

percent chances are? Zero percent? And they'll say like, oh, no, I

52:47

don't know, maybe five. And I'll say

52:49

that's too fucking much. Five is too

52:51

high. We've never had a 5% chance.

52:53

That's too high of a chance. If you

52:55

believe that there's anything more than a zero

52:57

percent chance that Donald Trump wants to become

52:59

a dictator, you cannot vote for him. Vote

53:01

for every other Republican that you want. Close

53:03

your ears, progressive listeners. You know, things

53:06

are fine. Like the Senate's going to be Republican

53:08

next time. Sorry, guys. Close your ears. Close

53:10

your ears. Vote Save America crowd. Like you don't

53:13

have to worry that socialism's coming. You do have

53:15

to worry that Donald Trump's going to be a

53:17

dictator. That is my message.

53:19

Again, that my now my group of people

53:21

in my life, this over index

53:23

is on, again, that kind of college educated

53:25

Romney Biden crowd. I would probably make a

53:27

different pitch if it was if

53:29

we were talking about the more working class Trump types. Farron?

53:33

Yeah, I would say, first of all, if

53:35

I had to make the pitch, I would

53:37

make it not me. Like I shouldn't be

53:40

the one pitching. And my most fervent hope

53:42

actually is that one of the things that

53:44

manifests as we get closer is that people

53:46

who've worked alongside Trump, the generals,

53:48

that they come out and tell people what

53:50

they saw. I think that those as surrogates

53:52

would make an enormous difference to kind of

53:54

the Wall Street Journal crowd. And I mean,

53:56

don't go on background in the Atlantic. I

53:58

mean, hold a press conference. and

54:00

say with together with Kelly and Mattis

54:03

and say we cannot do this like

54:05

I I sent Young men and

54:07

women to die for this democracy and I will not

54:09

allow this election to happen without me saying what I

54:11

saw and how Dangerous I think it would be to

54:13

return this man to power And

54:15

so that I think would go a long way

54:17

I also there's a category of people who are

54:19

making me though Particularly insane that I want to

54:21

fight with all the time and it is the

54:23

category the anti-anti is kind of That

54:26

create the permission structure for normie Republicans to not vote

54:28

for Joe Biden and they do some version of this

54:31

Donald Trump is an existential threat to

54:33

democracy but I can't vote

54:35

for Joe Biden either and so neither

54:38

and I find this to

54:40

be this is a John Bolton argument and where we've got

54:42

many friends who kind of do this and I'm like Well,

54:44

this is insane if you believe

54:46

that Donald Trump is an existential threat to

54:48

democracy You vote

54:51

for the one person the tomato can

54:53

that is standing between him and the White House

54:56

That's what you do Otherwise you are a coward

54:58

and you don't care about the country and you

55:00

are just not an adult capable of making hard

55:02

choices I love Sarah. I just want to interfere. I don't

55:04

think you should call the person in your life a coward

55:06

though Like Sarah's doing two things.

55:08

She gave a first strategy I was talking to John

55:11

talking to John Bolton I do think if you have

55:13

a pundit in your life if the person in your

55:15

life happens to be Chris the new new Coward

55:22

Your person your life is like an accountant or something.

55:24

Probably don't call them a coward all the rest of

55:26

that Okay, that's

55:28

good. That's good advice. Uh Sarah Longwell

55:30

Tim Miller. Thank you so much for joining us

55:32

Thanks for giving us some of your insights and

55:34

sharing some of the focus groups with us and

55:37

appreciate you guys Yeah, thanks for having us.

55:39

Sorry votes of America people. I didn't mean to

55:41

hurt your feelings. I'm still pulling for shared and

55:44

I think they might be able to pull it out. I

55:46

think they might be able to great Sharon. I hope it

55:48

happens Bye guys Before

55:51

we move on I just want to strenuously

55:54

object to Tim's prediction that Democrats will lose

55:56

the Senate We may and it's

55:58

certainly an uphill climb, but there's absolutely

56:00

a path for candidates in the toughest races

56:02

like John Tester and Sharon Brown. And

56:05

the best way to help them is by

56:07

going to votesaveamerica.com/2024 to donate or

56:10

sign up for a volunteer shift. Then

56:12

if you feel so inclined, go

56:14

ahead and tweet a thank you to Tim for encouraging you to

56:16

sign up. And if you

56:18

want to walk away with some hope about the

56:20

campaign that Ben Wickler and other Democrats are building

56:22

in Wisconsin, here it is. We

56:25

just opened our 47th office. We have a

56:27

presence all over the state in every

56:29

region of the state in rural areas

56:31

and suburbs and exurbs and small towns and

56:33

big towns and the cities of the state,

56:37

everywhere. And that means that we're able to

56:39

build these neighborhood teams where folks are talking

56:41

to people in their own communities. And

56:43

when you talk to someone that you know from

56:46

church or from high school or from, you know,

56:48

work or because you're at your cousin's wedding

56:50

together, then you can start to

56:52

have a conversation that goes off script. As

56:57

you heard from Sarah, Tim and Ben, these

57:00

conversations won't be easy, whether

57:02

they're with perfect strangers or your closest family

57:04

members. But they're important. These

57:07

should be longer conversations. This is not just

57:09

checking in, making sure someone knows what the

57:11

election is about. It actually starts with listening,

57:13

asking people questions of listening to them and

57:15

asking follow up questions, finding points of common

57:17

ground, finding values that they're having on it.

57:20

Maybe that seems a little scary to you. Maybe it

57:22

seems a little cheesy. Maybe it just seems

57:24

exhausting. But whether or not

57:27

we keep Donald Trump out of the White

57:29

House depends on how many of these conversations

57:31

each of us are willing to have between

57:33

now and November. And

57:35

thankfully, Ben has a roadmap for us. Well,

57:38

the first thing is that it's OK to

57:40

reassure people. You don't want to

57:42

make people feel guilty for being where they used

57:44

to be. You want to make them feel safe

57:47

and celebrated and not judged for being where they're

57:49

coming to now. So having those

57:51

conversations in a tender and open and curious

57:53

way can pave the

57:55

way for them to have further conversations with you. Do

57:58

not immediately come in and... pose a

58:00

giant purity test where you're asking them to agree

58:02

with you about everything. Instead, really start

58:05

with asking questions where you're trying to get at

58:07

the root of why someone came to feel this

58:09

way. And go there and you

58:11

can reflect back to them the

58:13

values that you're hearing and what you appreciate about

58:15

those values. But you're really looking for, you

58:18

know, what is it that cracks, that's open for someone.

58:20

What happens ultimately for some of these voters is

58:23

it's like squeezing through a keyhole and then they

58:25

come out and suddenly feel like they're 3D on

58:27

the other side of it. Because they pop into

58:29

themselves and feel like it's okay to try out

58:31

a bunch of different opinions that didn't feel safe to

58:33

try out before. I'll

58:38

leave you with that. Yes, it'll be

58:40

hard to go out there and persuade the persuadables in

58:42

your life. But hopefully, after what

58:44

you just heard, it may

58:46

be just a little bit easier. The

58:55

Wilderness is a production of Crooked Media. It's

58:57

written and hosted by me, Jon Favreau.

58:59

Our senior producer and editor is Andrea

59:01

B. Scott. Austin Fisher is

59:04

our producer. And Farah Safari is

59:06

our associate producer. Sound

59:08

design by Vasilis Fotopoulos. Music

59:10

by Marty Fowler. Charlotte Landis

59:12

and Jordan Cantor sound engineered the show.

59:15

Thanks to Katie Long, Reid Cherlin, Matt

59:17

DeGrotte, and Madeline Herringer for production support.

59:20

To our video team, Rachel Gieske,

59:22

Joseph Dutra, Chris Russell, Molly Lobel,

59:24

and David Toles, who filmed and edited the

59:26

show. If The Wilderness has

59:29

inspired you to get involved, head on

59:31

over to votesaveamerica.com/2024 to sign up and

59:33

find a volunteer shift near you. When

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I grow up, I'm gonna

59:56

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