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we've got reporter Shane Harris on
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Is it
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tough for you as a reporter and also person
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having to live in all of this to, like, separate
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those things? Well,
0:58
I recently
1:01
moved in with a roommate into
1:03
a rental to save
1:05
a little bit of money and I sometimes
1:07
look around the house and think that I would never be
1:09
able to buy it. So and
1:11
friends
1:12
are certainly asking, you know, when they'll be
1:14
able to have shot at buying a house
1:16
and I don't have any good answers for them.
1:21
Rachel Segal covers federal reserve in
1:23
the economy for the post, which means that
1:25
for months now, she's been covering
1:27
the Fed's fight against inflation and how
1:29
that's showing up in mortgage rates.
1:32
Today, we learned that the average rate for
1:34
a thirty year fixed mortgage, the most
1:36
popular home loan, crossed seven
1:38
percent for the first time in twenty
1:41
years. That means
1:43
it's going to get even more expensive
1:45
to buy a home. And unfortunately, Rachel
1:47
says, this is just the financial reality
1:49
Americans are gonna to deal with until
1:52
inflation is under control.
1:54
We've heard a really unflinching message
1:56
from the Fed, which is that getting inflation under
1:58
control is priority number one.
2:00
and they have made very clear that they are doing
2:02
that. Really at any cost,
2:05
their argument is if we don't get inflation
2:07
under control now, we will have to
2:09
swing that much harder to get it back down
2:11
in the future, and they
2:13
aren't really showing any signs of letting up anytime
2:15
soon. From the newsroom
2:17
of the Washington Post, this is post reports.
2:20
I'm Shane Harris. It's
2:22
Thursday, October twenty seventh. Today,
2:25
mortgage rates are the highest they've been
2:27
in twenty years. Rachel
2:29
is gonna tell us what that means for the housing
2:32
market. Also, why
2:34
it's going to be even harder to buy a house?
2:36
Well,
2:36
at least for now.
2:41
So
2:41
in real terms, what does an interest
2:44
rate like this mean for someone who wants to go buy
2:46
a home today? Well,
2:47
it means that that same house is a lot more
2:49
expensive and the exact
2:51
numbers might depend on how much
2:53
for a down payment. You can put down
2:55
how much the house costs overall. There
2:58
are some buyers who are able to pay cash.
3:00
but what it really means is that the
3:02
same is much more expensive
3:04
than it would have been a couple of months ago
3:06
or even a year ago. if
3:07
you're somebody who was thinking two months ago,
3:10
I'm about ready to go buy a house. That decision
3:12
may be on hold indefinitely now.
3:14
Yeah,
3:14
that decision might be off the table.
3:16
It might not be as attractive
3:18
an offer, even if it was your dream home,
3:20
you might be doing the math and thinking that
3:22
a couple extra hundred dollars
3:25
really just is not something you can swing.
3:31
Alright.
3:31
So let's think this through with some real
3:33
numbers just for a second to try and figure out what this
3:35
means in real terms. So let's
3:37
say you've been looking for a house and
3:39
a few months ago when mortgage rates were
3:41
around three percent you could afford
3:43
a four hundred thousand dollars house. So
3:45
you plan to put down twenty percent
3:47
of that amount, which is eighty thousand
3:49
dollars, and then you'd get a mortgage.
3:52
In other words, you're gonna borrow the rest.
3:54
you're gonna borrow three hundred twenty thousand
3:56
dollars. You would then pay that back
3:58
over the next thirty years
3:59
with an interest rate of three percent
4:02
or somewhere around there. So maybe you'd
4:04
be paying thirteen hundred dollars a month.
4:06
Now with the interest rates at seven
4:09
percent, you probably wouldn't be
4:11
able to afford that four hundred thousand dollar house
4:13
anymore. Because at a seven percent
4:15
interest rate, your monthly payment, it
4:17
just spiked to more than twenty
4:19
one hundred dollars a month. for
4:21
the same house. So
4:23
you then might have to look for a two hundred
4:25
fifty thousand dollar house to keep that
4:27
same monthly payment of thirteen
4:29
hundred dollars. and that might mean you
4:31
have to give up on the house or the neighborhood
4:33
that you wanted or not buy
4:35
a house at all right now.
4:40
I mean, I remember when I bought my home eight years ago,
4:42
and we got a four percent rate. And
4:44
my parents saying, you have no idea
4:47
when we were your age, you know, the rate was eleven,
4:49
twelve. I mean, I've here even sort of as high as eighteen
4:51
percent. I mean, putting this in perspective,
4:53
I mean, this is a big pinch for people right now,
4:55
but our rate still historically very
4:58
low? Or do we need to stop thinking about
5:00
them in terms of that historic low that we've
5:02
enjoyed for so many years?
5:03
Rates still are historically low and
5:06
whether it's your parents or my parents or
5:08
others, they likely paid a
5:10
much
5:10
higher mortgage rate for their house.
5:12
But it's hard to click into
5:14
that mindset if you are shopping for a
5:16
home for the first time or if everyone
5:18
that you know bought a house when rates
5:20
were much lower over the past couple of years.
5:22
Putting
5:22
this in the context of what's behind the
5:24
rate increase, right, is the Federal Reserve
5:27
and its efforts over the past several months
5:29
to raise interest rates in order
5:31
to cool down the economy and try
5:33
and tame inflation. So what
5:35
effect has that had on the housing
5:37
market? Well,
5:38
the Federal Reserve does not set
5:40
mortgage rates specifically, but it does
5:42
set its policy rate, which is called the
5:44
Federal Funds Rate. And
5:47
that is a very broad
5:49
based, somewhat blunt tool
5:52
that is really the feds only tool in
5:54
its toolkit to slow down the economy
5:56
to cool inflation.
5:57
When it changes that rate, which
5:59
it's done five
5:59
times this year, It trickles
6:02
down and has all of these ripple effects through the rest
6:04
of the economy and affects all
6:06
different types of lending and spending and
6:08
borrowing. and mortgage rates are extremely
6:10
sensitive to anything that the Fed does.
6:13
So as the Fed has progressively raised
6:15
interest rates and done it very aggressively
6:17
this year, there's been a huge run up in mortgage
6:19
rates that happen quite quickly too. And
6:21
it
6:21
sounds like they're just tracking that Federal
6:23
Reserve rate sort of one leads the
6:25
other.
6:26
they're tracking and it also means that they're
6:28
not stopping anytime soon. The
6:30
Fed is on track to
6:32
hike rates two more times this year,
6:34
including once more next week. by
6:36
another aggressive jump. And the expectation
6:38
is that if seven percent feels
6:40
steep now that we might look back
6:42
on it in a couple of months and it won't be that
6:44
high after all. So traditionally
6:46
when these mortgage interest rates go up, we
6:48
think of prices for houses coming down
6:50
and they've been very high. We live in the DC
6:53
area, but they're very, very high. So are we
6:55
seeing places that are being hit hard by this where the
6:57
market is being depressed prices are coming down
6:59
because of the rates going up? We
7:00
are seeing it and we're seeing it in a few
7:02
different ways. home prices
7:05
are starting to cool really all over the
7:07
country, including in big hotspots
7:09
that saw this huge run up at home price
7:11
growth over the last couple of years.
7:13
We're starting to see builders pullback.
7:16
Builder confidence was down for the tenth
7:18
straight month in October. There's
7:22
refinancing applications are way down, demand
7:24
for mortgages are way down. You
7:26
know, there's more interest in adjust label rate mortgages.
7:28
All of these ways in which we see
7:31
buyers start to pull back that
7:33
also has the effect of boosting supply.
7:35
There are more houses that you might be
7:37
able to find if you decide to shop around
7:39
or houses that stay on the market longer
7:41
than when there was this frenzy
7:43
if
7:43
people scooping up houses as quickly as they could.
7:46
Are there places where the real estate market
7:48
is still really hot and it seems kind of impervious
7:50
to this increase? there
7:51
are still places and and, you know, it's
7:53
sort of a reflection of how hot the
7:56
market became to begin with. So
7:58
in all sorts of paltz marias,
8:00
not just DC, places like Phoenix
8:03
and Dallas and Tampa and Boise,
8:05
Idaho. The housing market just
8:07
exploded. People moved there
8:09
that housing supply was not necessarily
8:12
prepared and all of a sudden you had way more
8:14
people shopping for houses than there were
8:16
houses for them to buy. And even in
8:18
markets where we're starting to see that ease up a
8:20
bit, it doesn't mean that home prices are
8:22
now at pre pandemic levels.
8:24
They're still quite high, maybe
8:26
not increasing quite so quickly,
8:28
but there
8:28
would be a long way for home prices to fall if we
8:30
were gonna cease anything resembling twenty nineteen
8:32
or early twenty twenty. And we shouldn't expect
8:34
that housing prices are gonna drop down to,
8:36
like, where they were a decade ago. Right? I mean, it's
8:39
we're we're kind of plateauing. Is that what it seems
8:41
feels like? Right.
8:41
Realtors that I'll talk to
8:43
describe a plateau and they don't describe
8:46
a crash in the housing market. There
8:48
aren't the same types
8:48
of concerns that caused
8:50
the great financial crisis that
8:52
I'm sure is, you know, fresh and people's memories when
8:54
they think about any issues with the housing market.
8:56
But what the Fed is trying to do
8:58
is not crash the housing market,
9:00
just get prices from running
9:04
up at such unsustainable rates
9:06
that more and more people are price out and
9:08
that low rates really enable that to
9:10
happen for a long time.
9:14
So the
9:16
Fed raises its rates, the mortgage interest
9:18
rates follow. Demand
9:20
is cooling off maybe
9:22
prices are stabilizing. Does the Fed look at this
9:24
and say mission accomplished? We got
9:26
something done here that we wanted to achieve.
9:28
The Fed can point to the housing market
9:30
and say, here is an intended
9:32
effect from our interest
9:33
rates. We've been hiking rates very
9:35
aggressively. We can see that what we are doing is
9:37
starting to work
9:37
in the housing market. A
9:40
problem is that there are not all that
9:42
many
9:42
other sectors of the economy that they
9:44
can point to and see
9:46
that kind of I don't know if you'd call it
9:48
success, but see that kind of progress. They
9:50
are trying to tackle such broad based
9:52
and entrenched inflation in
9:54
so many corners of the economy and in a
9:56
lot of corners that are not as
9:59
sensitive to
9:59
interest rate hikes as the housing market is.
10:02
And the housing market is such a huge driver of
10:04
the economy. Right? I mean, it's not just the
10:06
house. It's all the appliances that go in
10:08
the house. It's the furniture. It's the
10:10
tiles. It's the everything all
10:12
this stuff that we think of, is there a
10:14
risk that by slowing down the
10:16
housing market, particularly when everyone's
10:18
worried about a recession, that we
10:20
drive quicker into a recession or make it
10:22
deeper through what the Fed is doing.
10:24
It's possible there are a lot of economists
10:26
who will tell me that housing market is a bit
10:28
of a leading indicator for where the rest of the economy
10:30
is going. And if housing enters
10:32
into a quote unquote recession, that
10:34
could pull more parts of the economy with it.
10:36
You know, you mentioned the tiles and the appliances.
10:39
That's
10:39
contractors. It's construction workers. It's
10:42
people who drive trucks all across
10:44
the country to transport tiles from one end
10:46
to the other. And all of those things
10:48
put together make up this much broader
10:50
fabric of the economy that
10:50
travels with the housing market too.
10:53
So
10:53
if the goal here is in part
10:56
to increase the supply of
10:58
housing, is there a risk that this policy
11:00
is counterproductive then?
11:01
It's tricky. Yeah. And and this gets
11:04
to the limits of what the Fed can
11:06
do. So the
11:08
Fed seeks to snuff
11:10
out demand in the
11:10
economy. They want fewer people shopping for houses.
11:13
but
11:13
they can't build houses. They can't
11:16
increase the number of houses to meet this
11:18
huge shortfall. Some economists put it at
11:20
five million single family homes if the country
11:22
is short. They can't build houses. And
11:24
if anything, raising interest rates
11:26
for a construction company or
11:28
any of these businesses that would otherwise
11:30
need to invest or spend money to build these houses,
11:32
that
11:32
becomes more
11:33
expensive. You know, it's more
11:35
expensive to build a house. You might have people who are
11:37
skittish about wanting to build a
11:39
new house. So it's a bit of a
11:41
cycle that is not necessarily all that
11:43
helpful if the goal is to get more houses built in
11:45
this country. He's one way
11:46
to think of this too that if the Fed's goal
11:49
in raising rates is to curb inflation.
11:51
Right? That's goal number
11:53
one. Is the housing market potentially
11:55
sort of an unintended casualty of
11:57
this if it goes the wrong way? And
11:59
the supply is limited and it doesn't actually
12:01
lead to people being able to afford a
12:03
house.
12:03
It could be. I think that there are ultimately
12:06
some
12:06
you know, walls
12:07
or ceilings that fed policy really
12:09
bumps up against. Another consequence
12:12
could be that if you have fewer people
12:13
who can buy homes or can afford to
12:15
buy homes
12:16
that steers them back into the rental
12:18
market. Well, there's way
12:20
too much demand for rentals rent
12:23
inflation is extremely high.
12:25
And then you have the same problem too, too
12:27
much demand, too little
12:29
supply. It's hard to build more rental apartments.
12:32
So in that way housing is a really
12:34
core issue that, in
12:35
some ways, responds to interest rate increases,
12:37
but can't be solved by the other? I
12:39
mean, the Fed doesn't sit down and think.
12:41
I mean, they understand that these are potential
12:43
knock on effects. Right? So when they make a
12:45
decision like this, do you have a sense
12:47
of do how they weigh whether
12:49
it's a good idea or a bad idea to raise the
12:51
rates knowing that it could have all these unintended
12:53
consequences? Or do they just have to say,
12:55
look, these are the only tools we have. They're big and
12:57
they're blunt, but we have to do something.
12:59
I think
13:00
it could be more the latter. the
13:04
Fed acknowledges that
13:06
interest rates are blunt.
13:08
It is the main tool that the Fed has.
13:10
And in a lot of ways, it's an imperfect tool.
13:12
And it's a tool that can cause pain.
13:15
Fed officials have warned
13:17
that in this fight to get inflation under
13:19
control, there are consequences that come with
13:21
that, and we're all waiting and
13:23
trying to keep a very close eye on what some of those
13:25
consequences might be and how painful they
13:27
are.
13:28
After the break, Rachel and I will talk about
13:30
what this means for renters. And
13:32
we're gonna hear from a man in Texas who
13:34
is trying to game out how to keep his
13:37
housing affordable with all of
13:39
this uncertain in the housing market.
13:41
We'll be right back.
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slash impact.
14:09
I asked
14:11
this next question knowing that I don't
14:13
wanna the anxiety of people who are renting and
14:15
or thinking about buying? myself. Yeah.
14:18
But, like, is this just like the toughest
14:20
place to be right now? Like, if you're renting
14:22
and you the rent could go up, but the mortgage rates are
14:24
going up and you're just like you're watching
14:26
everything so carefully. I mean, is this
14:28
it feels like renters are really in the point where they
14:31
could get squeeze the most particularly with
14:33
inflation and you're not getting any
14:35
benefit out of homeownership and you're not
14:37
getting equities. I mean, it really does feel like
14:39
renters are just in like this tough
14:41
spot. A tough
14:41
spot from from all sides, you know, whether
14:44
you're worried about your rent
14:46
very
14:46
suddenly going up when you have to renew your
14:49
lease. I've spoken with people who were suddenly
14:51
alerted that their rent was going to go
14:53
up. Five hundred, six hundred, seven hundred,
14:55
dollars just for them to be able to stay there or
14:57
their landlords were gonna sell party
14:59
because they knew that they would be able to get
15:01
much more selling the house than they bought it
15:03
for. And homeownership, you
15:05
know, is is considered in this country,
15:07
this huge economic milestone,
15:09
this huge investment in your economic footing
15:12
and future. And as that becomes
15:14
farther out of reach for people at, you
15:16
know, later stages in their lives, that
15:18
can
15:18
really carry beyond this murky,
15:21
precarious moment that we're in now. Is
15:23
this experience changing that
15:25
conventional was you think that are more people
15:27
saying, you know what? Maybe home ownership isn't all
15:29
it's cracked up to be? Howard Bauchner:
15:30
Maybe, and we might wait
15:33
and see to answer that question,
15:35
but renting is also
15:37
difficult. You're also wary
15:40
of whether
15:40
your rent is going to go up, whether you'll have to be,
15:43
well, you'll have to find a new place to move
15:45
i Rent and friends of mine
15:47
describe, you know, punting for a
15:49
rental that maybe they know is not
15:51
going to be within their budget, but would allow them to
15:53
stay close to where their job is or close
15:55
to where their friends are, close to their family.
15:57
And these are all considerations that just boil down
15:59
to being able
15:59
to keep a roof over your head,
16:02
which is becoming
16:02
much, much more expensive in this country. So,
16:04
Rachel, our colleague, Abba Bhatarai, recently
16:07
interviewed somebody who lives in the suburbs
16:09
of Austin, Texas. His name is Tim Van
16:11
Zyl, and he's a renter. and he's
16:13
going through a lot of these questions and
16:15
anxieties right now about what he needs to
16:17
do. Should he stay? Should he
16:19
buy? Should he try to stick it out? So let's hear a
16:21
bit of what he had to say. III
16:22
get, you know, like, hey, if we make things
16:24
more expensive, less people are going to buy
16:27
them. But on certain
16:29
things, we've still gotta have the housing. still gotta
16:31
be where we've gotta be and and
16:33
just, you know, the American dream people
16:35
already feel is becoming more and more
16:37
unattainable. Mhmm. And I don't know that
16:39
this helps. So there's
16:40
somebody who says, yeah, I get what the
16:43
Fed is doing. I know why they're raising these
16:45
rates. We gotta bring inflation down,
16:47
but I'm the one stuck here. Unable
16:49
to buy a house. I
16:50
think it is this reflection too of some
16:53
of what
16:53
the Fed does is is somewhat intangible.
16:55
It affects the financial markets or
16:57
it affects business investment
17:00
or types of lending or
17:02
spending that
17:02
maybe you don't experience day in
17:05
and day out. But you
17:06
do know what your rent cost, you do know what your gas
17:08
cost, you know what your groceries cost. And these
17:10
are all categories that
17:13
have become way too
17:15
expensive or much more expensive
17:17
than sustainable in economy.
17:19
And until those are back down,
17:21
any sort of, you know, push to
17:23
get them back down or any consequence of
17:25
what the Fed is doing, you are also going to feel. It's
17:27
going to feel very close to your life
17:29
in a way that might
17:30
not feel very good for
17:31
a very long time. I also heard
17:34
somewhere there's an election coming
17:36
up, and I'm sure the administration
17:38
would like to take credit for addressing
17:40
inflation as soon as possible. President Biden
17:42
clearly is keyed in on that. He understands
17:44
the vulnerability that it is for
17:46
Democrats. How long do we need
17:48
to wait to see the impact of
17:50
the Fed's most recent hike when
17:52
it comes to that all important
17:54
goal of taming inflation. That
17:56
is
17:56
really the million
17:58
dollar question
17:59
because we don't know. Interest
18:03
rates do not click in automatically. And even
18:05
though the housing market is
18:08
very reactive to them, the
18:10
way interest rates move through the economy
18:12
changes over time
18:14
and they sort of seep through the economy over
18:17
this long lag period, which
18:18
means that all of the rate hikes
18:20
that Fed has done so far and the ones that it
18:22
still has to do won't hit
18:25
fully until next
18:27
year. That could mean though that they
18:29
either hit and get in inflation
18:31
down in a way that the Fed is aiming
18:33
for, but it seems that more likely
18:35
they will slow the economy
18:37
so abruptly, not just the housing market,
18:39
but all different types of sectors that
18:42
we enter a recession and
18:44
that obviously has political consequences,
18:46
it has consequences for the way
18:48
people live
18:49
their lives every single day, and it's
18:51
a question about when we'll start to see that
18:53
really come clearer into
18:55
you.
18:57
So how should Americans be thinking
18:59
about their finances right now? Do you think we
19:01
should all be saving up for a recession,
19:04
stocking more money away? it's
19:06
so hard to give advice
19:08
in such a confusing
19:09
time. It does
19:11
seem based on expectations that
19:14
economists
19:14
have and people that I talk to that there
19:16
is a growing risk of a recession
19:18
sometime next year. It does not mean
19:20
that it would be as
19:21
severe as the recessions that maybe
19:23
are front of mind for people, the
19:25
great recession, the severity of the
19:27
COVID recession, the hope is
19:29
that if the economy does slow down or
19:31
to get an inflation under
19:32
control, that
19:34
it will not be as painful as
19:36
those times. But we don't
19:38
know yet. And if that means saving
19:40
now or not buying that
19:42
house, if it feels like it would really stretch
19:44
your budget or finding other ways to
19:47
look through your finances and
19:48
see how you're doing, that
19:51
might
19:51
be the time.
19:52
knowing that these these tools have such a
19:55
long lead time, is there a point at which the Fed
19:57
looks? Let's say we go into a recession
19:59
sometime
19:59
next year, is there a point at which the Fed says, this
20:02
is too deep. It's too much. We've got a
20:04
pullback. Knowing that that pullback might take
20:06
a while, but are things that they will look for to
20:08
know, like, oh, no. No. No. No. This isn't
20:10
working. We have to reverse. They would look
20:12
for
20:12
a couple of things. And again, it depends on
20:14
when they look for them. But
20:17
they would look to see what is happening
20:19
with inflation. You can look under the hood and
20:21
say, okay, are there ways in which we can
20:23
see that inflation is just not budging?
20:25
and what are the reasons for that? Are they not
20:28
budging because of supply chain issues? Are they
20:30
not budging because Russia
20:32
invaded Ukraine and caused all these
20:34
other global economic issues. Is there something going
20:36
on in the financial system? Things
20:37
that may be an interest rate alone
20:40
cannot solve. They're also going look at the
20:41
job market. They're going to see are people
20:44
losing their jobs. Our business is
20:46
no longer
20:46
hiring. Our people,
20:49
you know, being laid off in sector
20:51
versus this sector versus
20:52
this sector. There's a
20:54
way that economists can look at what's happening with
20:56
the unemployment rate and say, that looks like
20:59
a recession. These are all has to look at at
21:01
once. But as you mentioned, it
21:03
depends on when they look and when
21:05
they look might be too
21:07
late. It might be before the
21:09
full thrust of these interest rates really
21:11
come into view. And
21:14
Decisions that
21:14
they make now will have a huge bearing on what
21:16
each of those looks like in the future. And are
21:18
there signs they'll look for in the housing market to
21:21
tell them what to do? they'll
21:23
likely look for what is already happening.
21:25
They'll start to see, you know, is
21:27
is there a more precipitous plummet
21:29
as the housing market cratering
21:31
are people pulling back altogether.
21:34
The housing market might also be an
21:36
instance in which That
21:38
does what the Fed wants it to do, but the problem is that there
21:40
might be other parts of the economy that
21:42
behave differently. Housing
21:45
really is
21:46
this huge signal
21:48
of where
21:48
the economy is going and a huge way
21:50
in which people feel the economy.
21:53
Sometimes the economy can feel
21:55
very abstract or the
21:57
things that the Federal Reserve does can
21:59
feel
21:59
very removed from our day to day
22:02
lives. But it's an interest rate hike
22:04
that affects a mortgage rate
22:06
or rent going up.
22:07
I think this is really one of the
22:09
ways in which people
22:12
feel what is happening in the economy day in and
22:14
day out, and it will have
22:16
enormous consequences for the way their own
22:18
financial life shake out. Rachel, thank you
22:20
so much for joining us and explaining all of this
22:22
today. Thank you, Shane.
22:26
Rachel Siegel covers the Federal Reserve and the
22:29
domestic economy for the post.
22:30
This story was produced by Maggie
22:33
Penman, Ababa, Drierai contributed
22:35
reporting. And
22:37
that's it for
22:37
post reports. Thanks for listening. Today's
22:40
show was mixed by Sam Bayer and edited
22:42
by Lucy Perkins. I'm
22:44
Shane Harris. I've always loved being on
22:46
the pod and I'm very thrilled to have been your
22:48
guest host today. Thanks for having me. We'll be
22:50
back tomorrow with more stories from the Washington
22:53
Post.
22:57
This podcast
22:59
is supported by IBM. IBM
23:01
is teaming up with twenty HBCUs
23:04
to take on the cyber security
23:06
security talent shortage by creating cybersecurity
23:08
leadership centers. Learn more
23:10
at IBM dot com slash impact.
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