Recession could be coming and the property markets may be about to correct. Harvey denotes six signs of a coming recession and gives you all the information so you can make a decision regarding your own property investments.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Goldman Sachs warn that we have a 20-30% chance of another recession based on some of the following markers ;.
• Inflation rose above 5% and is due to rise more.  
• Interest rates are rising to curb inflation so borrowing will be more expensive.
• Oil prices are driving up the cost of living.
• The Yield Curve has inverted. This has always indicated a recession. 
• The Uk Wage has fallen compared to inflation. 
• Consumer sentiment is the publics confidence in the economy. People don’t spend if they suspect the economy is going to stall.  
• If you have buy to lets that will not produce a shortfall on your tenants job loss due to housing benefits you will be cushioned from the effect of the recession by this. 
• Explanations and visualisations are linked below under EPISODE RESOURCES

BEST MOMENTS

‘Recession is when the Gross Domestic Product drops two consecutive quarters on the trot.’

‘Whenever crude oil has hit over $100 a barrel, a recession has followed.’ 

‘Consumer sentiment is absolutely ginormous, not just on the rates but on the fact there is a war. People are uncertain. People start saving. All these thoughts go through peoples heads and it makes them do nothing, they kinda freeze.’

‘One thing to remember though is that when we do go into a recession, or when we are uncertain about a potential recession, risk assets fall the hardest. This is not just in property, this is in every asset class.’

‘If you’ve got buy to lets that are in areas that are covered by housing benefits. In my area housing benefits are £500 a month, a lot of my properties are around £550 a month so I’ve not got too much of a shortfall if somebody loses their job.’

‘When you look at my portfolio as a whole I have this residual income that rides me out any ups and downs.’

EPISODE RESOURCES

To watch the video of this episode ;

https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=RcNRSnvJ8rY

Here are links to more information and visualisations of the concepts, figures and fluctuations that Harvey has discussed ;

Recession definition – 

https://www.businessinsider.com/what- is-a-recession

Goldman Sachs forecasts -

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03- 11/goldman-sachs-cuts-u-s-growth-forecasts-on-hit-from-oil- war

BBC inflation rate - https://www.bbc.com/news/business- 12196322

BBC interest rates - https://www.bbc.com/news/business- 60763740

BBC oil - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cmjpj223708t/oil

Treasury Yield -

https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/macroeconomic- research/yield-curve-flattening-warning-rate-hike-cycle

Growth of earnings -

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1272447/uk-wage-growth- vs-inflation/

US sentiment –

https://tradingeconomics.com/united- states/consumer-confidence

SERIES RESOURCES                 

How to Reduce Landlord Taxes 2019-20 https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/1999640543/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_fabc_79R9ZHHR1A65RYM5YR4J

The Richest Man In Babylon: The Success Secrets of the Ancients--The Most Inspiring Book on Wealth Ever Written https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/0451205367/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_fabc_MFM0MP7WF7AWGWYX5051

Rich Dad Poor Dad: What the Rich Teach Their Kids About Money That the Poor and Middle Class Do Not! https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/1612680178/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_fabc_1MY8PQJN7R1NSN167V6P

VALUABLE RESOURCES

💻| Join us in our remote property investing Community on Facebook

📚| Live free training & Q&A every Sunday in the Community. 

ABOUT THE HOST

Harvey is the founder of Growth Properties Group, a small group of companies that help people live on their terms through property.

With education, portfolio building, and property management. 

He built his property portfolio and businesses in the Northeast of England, whilst living in the south, allowing him to spend time with his family and travel regularly. 

Having built up the systems and team to run from his phone and largely on autopilot, he's now focused on helping others excel on their property journeys and build a remote investment lifestyle for themselves through group and 1:1 coaching programs. 

His signature program, which runs 4 times per year, is the 6 Stage Remote Buy Refurb Refinance (RBRR) Blueprint.

I help people to live on their terms through property & Coaching and portfolio building. 

I’ve spent the last 7 years working out how to run my property business virtually from my phone. 

Using tech to run my business while I’ve been travelling. 

DM me clubhouse if you need help with this. 

CONTACT METHOD

👓| Find me on Facebook 

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👓| Find me on YouTube 


👓| Find me on TikTok

This show was brought to you by Progressive Media