Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Bullish Sentiment Thru the AgesJeff deGraaf talks with Walt Deemer about the elevated bullish sentiment, stories from the nifty-fifty, differentiating good investments vs good companies, the importance of expectations vs narratives, and how it
RenMac discusses payrolls and what this means for the Fed in lieu of next week’s core inflation number, what the betting markets are telling us about Kamala Harris’ role on the presidential ticket, how performance in the first half of the year
RenMac discusses the options for Democrats to replace Biden following the debate, how the stock market has reacted to the presidential polls, why Neil thinks the balance of risk suggests that the Fed could make a minor monetary mistake by not c
RenMac discusses why housing is hurting, why economic growth in 2024 will be worse than in 2023, how the Fed's risk distribution has shifted, why this is not a momentum market, the potential outside reversal in Nvidia, the positive correlation
RenMac discusses whether global election trends will impact the U.S., the significantly different U.S. presidential election forecasts between 538 and the Economist, the improving inflation picture, why admission by omission suggests a Septembe
RenMac discusses the latest payroll print, the political impact of the Trump conviction one week later, the impact of lower yields, the global strength of utilities, and the big bull turn in China.
RenMac discusses the political impact of the Trump conviction, how growth isn’t getting away from the Fed, sentiment and the post momentum hang-over industries, and trends vs momentum in China.
RenMac discusses why the Nvidia phenomenon may have overshadowed some broader concerns, why the bond market was down on the PMI print, why the consensus is onsides now on growth, a high alert for housing, capitulation suggests softness in equit
RenMac discusses how Biden agreed to debate on his terms, the encouraging inflation print, how much of Biden’s billions have been spent and what Trump could do with them, improving beta vs. average momentum, the peak in short rates, strong elec
RenMac discusses how the FDIC fallout may play out next week, the improvement in small banks, the consumer credit conundrum, the short rate risk/reward scenario, and the consumer momentum in China.
RenMac discusses the economic data dump this week, why the realized inflation data will be important, Powell’s case for weaker inflation, why the voters remain sour on the economy, whether Johnson will be removed as speaker now or after Novembe
RenMac discusses the low GDP and high inflation reports, how volatile trade figures may have skewed the data to the downside, why the consensus is probably right about growth, the mean reversion in the battleground state polls, why the Supreme
Jeff goes solo off-script to talk about the recent equity weakness, the things he looks for to call a tactical bottom and where we stand currently.
RenMac discusses the implications of the global gold rush led by central banks; why the latest inflation report still points to when, not if the Fed cuts interest rates; how a cooling labor market means consumers could struggle to absorb higher
RenMac discusses the bullish jobs number, why it might not keep the Fed from cutting in June, how it might send neutral rates higher, why No Labels ended up with no candidate and who benefits, how rising geopolitical risks are raising prices at
RenMac discusses Fed Governor Waller’s comments, context, and contrast with Powell; reconciling GDI and GDP; Biden’s bump in the Bloomberg battleground state poll, and some evidence of the momentum trade unwinding.
RenMac discusses how Michigan may determine the 2024 presidential outcome and how it is driving Biden’s EV policies, why the six months of progress on inflation is outweighing the previous two months of setbacks for Powell & Co., June cut looki
For nearly three decades, Ethan Harris was a fixture on Wall Street. After a stint at the New York Fed, Ethan went to Lehman Brothers where he served as the firm’s Chief US Economist. I had the good fortune of working for and learning from Etha
Neil and Steve welcome Kevin to the podcast to discuss Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s desire to replace Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the House vote to put TikTok on the clock, how China might retaliate against U.S. compani
RenMac discusses how the payroll print is bullish for the soft-landing camp, why you should keep watching the unemployment number, how both parties saw what they wanted to in Biden’s SOTU, the takeaways from Powell’s testimony, why there is sti
RenMac discusses the relief rally in response to inflation data coming in as expected, why a stronger economy doesn’t linearly map to inflation, how a May Fed cut could be underpriced, another gov’t can-kick, how Michigan sent warning signs to
Howard joins Jeff and Steve to discuss the depressing U.S. debt outlook from the CBO, how the transformation of Japan’s economy is impacting global markets, the pace of the Fed slowing quantitative tightening, the need to monitor the impact of
RenMac discusses the volatility around the recent economic data, moderating inflation expectations, the correlation between air freight and industrial production, the crowded calendar that awaits Congress when it returns, why Neil wasn’t impres
RenMac discusses the good, bad, and ugly for Biden in the Special Counsel report, Neil’s affinity for pop culture, how stronger productivity may be keeping inflation under control, why China may be so bad that it is good, the limited U.S. expos
RenMac discusses why the flukey payroll report may reduce the Fed’s sense of urgency, why the weather mattered in January, how a boost in productivity may also be a boost to earnings, how employment is more of a byproduct of a strong economy th
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