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Hello, and

3:29

welcome to revolutions.

3:36

Appending eleven,

3:38

meet the new boss.

3:42

The working premise of these appendices

3:45

is that we can take a bunch of unique historical

3:47

events that are mostly defined by their

3:49

own time, place, and context and

3:52

tease out some similarities. To

3:54

observe how these revolutions progress through

3:56

certain common steps, to

3:58

catch the places where history

3:59

seems to be rhyming. But

4:02

as

4:02

we moved into appendices nine and

4:04

ten to discuss a specific stage of

4:06

conflict between moderates and radicals,

4:09

we have been drifting a bit from

4:11

universal application. Not

4:13

all revolutions become defined by a conflict

4:15

between moderates and radicals, the

4:18

American revolution, the Haitian revolution,

4:20

the Spanish American revolutions, don't

4:22

really express themselves in these terms.

4:25

Sure. We could take the model and go looking for

4:27

things in those revolutions that fit the mold,

4:30

but they're not going to fit that

4:32

well or that convincingly. So

4:34

as we wrap up these appendices, we

4:37

should always keep in mind that if we

4:39

find uncomfortable tension between an

4:41

abstract model of history and the particular

4:43

details of a historical event, or

4:45

if factual relations need to

4:47

be ever so carefully stretched

4:49

or framed to fit a template, My

4:51

advice is

4:52

to let go of the template.

4:55

Always always air on the side of

4:57

letting the historical facts speak for themselves

5:00

in their own way and on their own

5:02

terms. That

5:04

said, we do return in this appendix

5:06

to something that does seem to happen at

5:08

the end of all revolutions. Well,

5:11

nearly all revolutions, not all of

5:13

them, never all of them. But

5:15

most of them, It's actually

5:17

one of the most common observations about

5:19

the universality of certain revolutionary

5:21

events that they seem to

5:23

invariably reach a stage where

5:25

political power and authority coalesces around

5:27

the magnetic personality of

5:29

a single charismatic leader. That

5:32

what started as a vast, multi

5:34

faceted, multi faced, multi

5:36

party, multi interest, all encompassing

5:39

revolutionary mass movement aimed at overthrow

5:41

of the ASEAN regime has

5:44

splintered via the entropy of

5:46

victory, will ultimately give way

5:48

to a powerful leader commanding unique

5:50

authority who will use their power

5:52

to settle all accounts, tie up old threads,

5:55

and often conveniently give

5:57

name and face to the transition from revolutionary

5:59

era

6:00

to post revolutionary era.

6:02

And

6:04

whatever the specific causes twists

6:07

and turns and courses of whichever

6:09

revolution we are talking about. It

6:11

is undeniable and practically

6:13

axiomatic, that a revolutionary period

6:16

involves an enormous amount of chaos

6:18

uncertainty and insecurity for

6:20

the population of whatever society we're

6:22

talking about. This

6:24

honestly doesn't need much of a further

6:26

explanation because It's a revolution.

6:29

It's gonna be chaotic. The old

6:32

political order has literally been thrown

6:34

out and people are scrambling to erect

6:36

something new in its place. In

6:38

the interim, there's gonna be a

6:40

lot of confusion. During

6:42

that process, different political groups

6:44

will set up rival claims to power.

6:46

And one group will say where the new power pay

6:48

attention to us, not those other guys over

6:51

there, and those other guys over there saying

6:53

no, where the new power pay attention to

6:55

us. Lines of authority

6:57

get very scrambled. Nobody

6:59

knows who's in charge or how long they'll

7:01

last. And in the solutions

7:03

we've been talking about, this is often accompanied

7:05

by a great deal of combative violence.

7:07

There could be riots or street

7:09

fighting. There are often full blown wars.

7:12

For the average person living through a revolution

7:15

stress and confusion are likely the

7:17

dominant emotions. Along

7:20

with this prevailing political chaos,

7:22

revolutions also cause enormous amounts

7:24

of economic dislocation, Supply

7:27

lines are disrupted, trade lines are

7:29

cut, goods become scarce,

7:31

money becomes inflated, maybe

7:33

even worthless, There's

7:35

no stability or predictability. You

7:38

can't really count on anything. You

7:41

go to the same bakery you've always gone to

7:43

and there's no bread to be had. You go

7:45

to sell your grain at the market and nobody

7:47

has anything to pay you. Workers

7:49

and laborers are conscripted into

7:51

armies, and there's

7:52

not enough hands for field or factory.

7:55

Output plummets. Transportation

7:58

networks are destroyed or impassible.

8:00

With old

8:01

economic relations torn a thunder amidst

8:03

war and revolution, just trying to

8:05

put food on the table becomes a dicey

8:07

proposition. The struggle for

8:09

survival often becomes a daily

8:11

even hourly challenge with

8:13

no certainty whatsoever that tomorrow

8:15

will bring anything different.

8:18

Revolutions also come with a breakdown

8:20

of law and order. Now,

8:22

the old system of law and order may have been

8:25

worth overthrowing. Just as the

8:27

old modes of economic and political relations

8:29

may have been worth overthrowing. But

8:31

it means that in the aftermath of a revolution,

8:33

the legal system is going to be

8:36

a bit of a dysfunctional mess, and

8:38

it's very easy for unsavory

8:40

characters to get

8:41

away with things. Nearly

8:43

every revolution we've covered has

8:45

been accompanied by a spike in criminal behavior.

8:47

And I'm

8:48

here just talking about regular old

8:50

crimes. Theft,

8:51

fraud, extortion, kidnapping, assault,

8:53

rape, and murder. The

8:55

rise in banetry and what we would call today,

8:57

gang activity rises amidst

8:59

economic uncertainty, and the

9:01

breakdown of old systems of legal justice.

9:04

All of this chaos naturally

9:06

produces a kind of general exhaustion

9:09

in the population. A

9:11

revolution is above all

9:13

an exhausting proposition, not

9:15

just for those participating in it, but

9:17

for those who are essentially on the sidelines.

9:20

Stress and uncertainty wear us down.

9:23

We

9:23

become very tired, tired

9:25

physically, tired psychologically, tired

9:27

emotionally. The longer it goes on,

9:29

the more the exhaustion prevails. And

9:31

like a kind of low grade torture

9:34

invites us to sign on to anything the

9:36

torture puts in front of us to just make the

9:38

torture stop. And in

9:40

a revolutionary setting, that torture becomes

9:42

defined by ongoing and never

9:44

settled fictional civil wars.

9:46

That can provoke from a normal person in

9:48

the sense that, my god, I'm sick to

9:50

death of all of you people, just settle

9:53

things so we can get on with our lives.

9:57

So the number of people who are stressed

9:59

and exhausted and absolutely over

10:01

it in society rises as

10:03

the revolution progresses. Remember,

10:05

we started with the masses all

10:08

pouring out into the streets in this first

10:10

revolutionary wave to

10:12

overthrow an ASEAN regime that

10:14

had itself become so exhaustingly and

10:16

frustratingly and provocatively irritating

10:18

that it just had to go.

10:21

But as conflicts open up within the revolutionary

10:23

coalition and individuals and

10:25

groups and parties get tossed

10:27

aside, The people who supported those

10:29

individuals or groups or parties

10:31

drop out of

10:31

politics. They quit,

10:33

they

10:34

leave, they run, they hide. And

10:37

those who are winning the revolution very much

10:39

prefer it this way. They're

10:41

happy to purge and discourage and

10:43

prohibit people who disagree with them from participating

10:46

in politics because, look,

10:48

they're trying to organize a new legitimacy

10:50

and dissenting voices will mess all

10:52

that up. So the

10:54

stakes rise, the willingness to tolerate

10:56

dissent inside the revolutionary

10:58

regime shrinks. And people

11:00

wind up unable to muster the energy

11:02

to fight on. What

11:04

they want is some semblance of order,

11:06

and revolution often takes them to the point

11:08

where they are willing to accept order in

11:10

whatever form it takes. Whether they

11:12

actually like it or not. The

11:15

point I'm trying to make here is that

11:17

human beings have a tendency to prefer

11:19

living with something resembling security,

11:22

regularity,

11:23

the safety. This is

11:25

one of those primordial instincts that goes

11:27

with the territory of being a mammal

11:29

in nature. We prefer to

11:31

go back to the same place for food

11:33

and find that there's food there. We

11:35

prefer it when we can go to the same place

11:38

we found water last time and find

11:40

that there's water there again. We

11:42

prefer

11:42

to be able to go to sleep at night and not

11:44

be attacked by predators or rival groups

11:46

while we sleep. And

11:48

to be honest, there's nothing wrong

11:50

with that. It's stressful to live

11:52

in chaos and people would prefer to

11:55

live with less stress and fear if they can get

11:57

away with it. The fact is most

11:59

normal people endure the revolution as

12:01

passive and helpless spectators. Most

12:03

people are not obsessed with politics, Most

12:06

people don't even care about politics, or if they

12:08

do get interested, they get quickly fed

12:10

up. And day by day, the promise

12:12

of order and regularity becomes

12:14

very alluring. And

12:16

so if a single leader out there

12:18

starts to make a name for themselves, and

12:21

that name begins to promise order and

12:23

stability and an end to the

12:25

chaos, a lot of people are willing

12:27

to listen. And even those

12:29

who are still idealistic true believers,

12:31

don't necessarily believe that the order

12:33

promised will be worth the price. Well,

12:35

they look around and despair that

12:37

the people probably don't have any

12:39

fight left in them. So

12:41

even if a leader rises up without much

12:44

cheering, they may rise with something a

12:46

leader likes just as much, and

12:48

that's exhausted resignation.

12:51

But let's be clear. It's

12:53

not like the leaders we're gonna talk about

12:55

here rolled in and said, oh, aren't you sick

12:57

of all the chaos and disorder? Pan

13:00

all power to me, I'll make everything

13:02

better. No, it usually

13:04

happens far more subtly and

13:06

organically than that, but the implication is

13:08

always there. However,

13:10

the revolutionary path twists and

13:12

turns and rises and falls and ebbs and

13:14

flows. It takes us

13:16

to this place. Some

13:17

charismatic leaders accruing more and

13:19

more political power with less and

13:22

less resistance.

13:23

Usually, the rise

13:25

of this leader comes as

13:27

they personally win over the loyalty of a

13:29

large section of the armed

13:31

population. By which I mean

13:33

an army. And resistance

13:36

dissolves, not necessarily from a feeling of

13:38

o g wiz, I'd rather go about my business

13:40

and not pay attention to politics anymore.

13:42

But

13:42

more, oh, that

13:43

guy commands such an overwhelming amount

13:45

of violent force that it would be suicidal to

13:47

try to challenge them. And

13:50

so the revolution that started with the

13:52

many becomes the

13:54

one.

13:56

So who are we talking about specifically

13:59

here. Well, if you've paid any

14:01

attention at all to the podcast, you can

14:03

probably name each individual I am

14:05

about to discuss off the top of

14:07

your head. Because

14:09

they wound up as the great charismatic

14:11

leader defining the end game of their

14:13

particular revolution, we had

14:15

to talk about them a lot. So

14:17

none of these names should be unfamiliar. Most

14:20

of them should be right on the tip of your tongue.

14:22

So who are we talking about in the English

14:25

revolution? It's obviously Oliver

14:27

Cromwell. Cromwell

14:29

rises up through the ranks of the parliamentary army

14:32

becomes a key figure in the new model army,

14:34

is a forceful leader inside

14:36

the particular faction looking to turn the

14:38

kingdom into a commonwealth give

14:40

it a written constitution and an orderly

14:43

Republican form of government. The

14:46

problem, of course, as you might remember from

14:48

those episodes, is that as Cromwell tried to

14:50

produce these written constitutions and new

14:52

structures of government, people just

14:54

kept not doing what they were supposed

14:56

to do. The Good Lord

14:58

Protector, elevated to maintain

15:00

security in the realm and act as an

15:02

executive inside of a new constitutional

15:04

order, kept finding the other

15:06

branches not behaving the way they were supposed to

15:08

behave, and so he had to keep

15:10

dismissing them, improvising a

15:12

new approach and finding out

15:14

that those new ways also didn't

15:16

work. And so in exasperation

15:18

Cromwell would blow them up. Appointed

15:20

lord protector for life, Cromwell

15:22

ruled from sixteen fifty three until his death

15:24

in sixteen fifty eight. Now

15:27

it's true he kept refusing to wear

15:29

the crown, and he never stopped trying to get a power

15:31

sharing system in place. But

15:33

as the rump parliament and the bare

15:35

bones parliament and the rule of the major

15:37

general came and went, The

15:39

one thing that stayed

15:40

was Cromwell,

15:41

indisputably holding power to the

15:44

end. Now, as you

15:46

may have noticed, the American Revolution tends

15:48

to miss a lot of these beats in

15:50

the latter stages of the revolution.

15:53

But it was still an incredibly chaotic

15:55

event AND OBVIOUSLY THERE'S ONLY

15:57

ONE MAN WHO FITS THE BILL HERE AND

15:59

THAT'S

15:59

GEORGE WASHINGTON.

16:01

WASHINGTON IS THE CENTRAL indisputable

16:04

leader of the American revolution. He's

16:06

the indispensable man.

16:07

Never authoritarian, but

16:09

always authoritative. It's

16:12

true he got dragged kicking and screaming to be

16:14

the first president of the United States,

16:17

but it's very telling that everybody

16:19

told him he had to do it.

16:21

And that

16:21

the absence of his presence would

16:23

make

16:23

the whole project fall apart. The

16:26

presidency was a uniquely powerful

16:29

executive institution at the time. Both

16:31

head of government and head of state.

16:34

It was designed specifically for

16:36

Washington. But Washington

16:38

is a different breed of cat here.

16:40

He defied human nature and instead

16:42

of ruling for life, retired.

16:44

But the

16:46

revolution does revolve around Washington,

16:48

doesn't it? And

16:49

it resolves to Washington,

16:51

doesn't it?

16:52

He's not a dictator. He never was a

16:54

dictator. But had he been born of a

16:56

slightly different cloth? King George the

16:58

first of America was absolutely

17:00

on the table. It remains

17:02

utterly remarkable that he wouldn't take what nearly

17:04

every other man in his position would

17:07

have. Or at least every other person we're

17:09

talking about here today would have.

17:11

And even though he's not a

17:13

dictator, the American revolution absolutely

17:16

ended with a single charismatic leader in

17:19

charge. Now when we get to the French

17:21

revolution, you know the only person

17:23

we could be talking about here is

17:25

Napoleon Bonaparte. Like so many

17:27

things about the French revolution, Bonaparte

17:29

is the prototypical example of all

17:31

this. Bonaparte sees power

17:33

in a nearly fumbled coup in

17:35

seventeen ninety nine, and then set

17:37

about deliberately consolidating power

17:39

after the directory had discredited itself

17:41

with chicanery, hijinks, and corruption.

17:44

Bonaparte's

17:44

power only grew as he continued to

17:46

fight wars with the rest of Europe

17:49

won

17:49

those wars, the result

17:50

of which being European conquest

17:52

revitalizing the French economy. This

17:54

made him very popular.

17:56

He then said

17:57

about trying to reconcile French society,

17:59

and he invited back the old tossed

18:01

out bits, the old aristocracy in

18:03

the Catholic church, and he

18:05

built up a personalist empire that by the time he

18:08

unveiled it, no one could

18:10

stop him.

18:12

In Haiti, things obviously revolve around Tucson,

18:14

Louis Vuitton. And where does he

18:16

come from? Yes. Just like

18:18

the first three, He's a great military leader

18:21

who was winning battles on the field. That's

18:23

a bit of a theme here. In

18:25

the beginning, Lipitor was merely one player

18:27

in a much larger game. the mid

18:29

seventeen nineties, he had consolidated power

18:31

by successfully playing external opponents

18:34

like the French, British Spanish,

18:36

and Americans. And internal opponents

18:38

like André Regaux commanding

18:40

the largest and most powerful army on

18:42

an island ravaged by chaos and war

18:45

There was no political entity to transfer power

18:47

to even had Lukashear wanted.

18:50

Him and his

18:50

army were it. And

18:53

so

18:53

wherever Louis Vuitton was,

18:55

that's

18:55

where political power was.

18:57

He

18:57

spent a good five or six years as A

19:00

dictator calling the shots as he tried to

19:02

mold his tri color society that would

19:04

be built on the back of plantation

19:06

cash crops. But eventually, even though it's

19:08

closest to him in the upper rung of the Haitian

19:10

military apparatus decided that what premature

19:12

wanted was not necessarily what

19:14

they wanted, So they betrayed him allowed

19:16

him to be arrested by the French, and

19:18

he wound up dying in

19:20

captivity.

19:22

So who's next? Well, of course, it's

19:24

Simone Bolivar. Bolivar is

19:26

the only one of our group to actually assume

19:28

the literal title of dictator.

19:31

Although those of you from the good old history

19:33

of Rome days know that a dictator in the

19:36

context of the Roman Republic was not

19:38

the unseemly anathema of

19:40

free government, was instead a

19:42

vital emergency tool that was used by a

19:44

free republic at a time of

19:46

crisis. Bolivar like

19:48

Cromwell in Washington, but not

19:50

like Bonaparture, was forever

19:53

thinking he would be able to set down his

19:55

dictatorial authority and power

19:57

to some kind of representative government

19:59

founded on the rule

19:59

of law, etcetera etcetera. But

20:02

believe

20:02

Art could never find people willing to do

20:04

it exactly the way he wanted them to do

20:06

it. And because of that, he had to keep brushing

20:08

them aside and reinstalling himself as

20:11

dictator well

20:11

after the point when everybody actually

20:14

wanted him to go away. But

20:16

when

20:16

Bolivar was in the room, nobody

20:18

could say no to him. Now,

20:21

the revolution of eighteen thirty is maybe even more than

20:23

the American revolution, is

20:26

probably the most conservative

20:28

of all the revolutions we've talked

20:30

about. The leader on the white horse

20:32

who comes riding into restore order in July

20:34

of eighteen thirty is Louis

20:37

Philippe. Louie Philippe may have been

20:39

conservative and he may have rained over a

20:41

smallish electorate, but it's not

20:43

like he was ever anything resembling a

20:45

dictator in any meaningful sense of

20:47

that word. There was a charter of

20:49

government in place. There was

20:51

a legislative branch with an upper house and

20:53

a lower house. There were judges

20:55

and laws. And Louis Philippe

20:57

knew exactly the role that he had been

20:59

cast in. Both

21:01

publicly and privately, he

21:03

tried to rule as a constitutional monarch

21:05

bound by certain constraints. I

21:07

mean, that's why they had overthrown Charles the

21:09

tenth in the first place. So

21:11

The revolution of eighteen thirty does

21:13

not really fit the mold here. Now

21:17

most of the revolutions of eighteen forty eight

21:19

also don't really fit the mold because most

21:21

of them failed. And we wind up

21:23

with neo absolutist monarchists

21:25

coming back into power. Now

21:27

when they came back into power,

21:29

they tended to have a few more rules about what they could and

21:31

could not do, but it was far more

21:33

of a restoration than a revolution.

21:36

In France specifically though, the second

21:39

republic managed to last for about three

21:41

years before another Bonaparte

21:43

decided he wanted to be

21:45

another Napoleon. The justifications

21:47

for Napoleon III were roughly the

21:49

same. Everything is so chaotic. The

21:51

leaders around me are wildly unpopular with

21:53

most people, so I'll just self

21:55

coo my way into power. Napoleon

21:58

III's legitimacy and charismatic

21:59

authority came

22:01

exclusively From

22:03

the fact of his name, that's it. He had nothing

22:05

else to recommend him for any job. He

22:07

was in this sense a lot like Octavian from

22:09

the history of Rome days. Trotting

22:12

around the name of Caesar without having

22:14

done anything to actually earn

22:16

it. Now, like the

22:18

revolution of eighteen thirty, the French third

22:20

Republican Paris Communist era

22:22

also do not really resolve

22:24

towards a dictatorial outcome.

22:26

It's very possible that the Paris commune

22:28

would have gone towards a dictator

22:30

had their charismatic dictator

22:33

been around and there is somebody who would

22:35

have fit them all. It's August

22:37

Blanco, the man who was born to

22:39

play that role. But he had

22:41

already been arrested and locked up, and

22:43

so he wasn't there for the Paris commune,

22:45

and so they did committee rule

22:47

until the end. Meanwhile,

22:49

for the French Third Republic, it maybe could

22:51

have gone towards a dictatorship, but

22:53

instead there was just enough multiplicity of

22:55

interest without a single charismatic figure

22:57

on any side, that everyone

22:59

wound up crammed into a very tense and

23:01

uneasy republic that nobody

23:03

loved, everyone was willing to tolerate

23:05

at least until the next revolutionary

23:07

turn of the screw.

23:09

Except that didn't really happen.

23:12

third republic lasted until World War

23:14

two. And after that,

23:16

it's here comes Charles de Gaulle who

23:18

absolutely fits the bill here

23:20

but it's like seventy five years later.

23:24

Now in Mexico, Caronza

23:26

very much wanted to play the role of a

23:28

charismatic dictator after Maduro,

23:30

but the man had no charisma.

23:33

He was so deeply unpopular even

23:35

among his own subordinate. And

23:37

he could point to no military or political track

23:39

record that he could lay claim to

23:41

popular power. Meanwhile, the

23:43

people who did have that track record in

23:46

charisma, people like Via and Sapata,

23:49

had different agendas and they didn't really

23:51

want the job. So as the

23:53

Mexican revolution progressed, it progressed

23:55

to Avara Obregon and the crew from

23:57

Sonora. So in the Mexican

23:59

context, Oprah Ghosn is playing

24:01

this role here. He's got the military

24:03

accolades, the legend of his one arm,

24:05

and his stute pollicking.

24:08

But with no reelection being such a

24:10

huge part of the Mexican revolution,

24:13

Obregon gave way to a successor And

24:15

from there, the PRI developed itself

24:18

into a unique system where the

24:20

party became the dictator rather than any

24:22

single man. And

24:24

then finally, in the Russian revolution, you know, where

24:26

we're talking about, we're talking about Lennon and

24:29

then Stalin, about whom we have

24:31

just spent about a gazillion years

24:33

talking about. And whose careers

24:35

likely don't need much of a rehearsing

24:37

here. But obviously, post

24:39

February revolution Russian

24:41

democracy didn't even last the

24:43

year, before it was back to a single

24:45

leader calling the shots. And yes,

24:47

they technically did this while adhering to

24:49

the Byzantine Ethics of Party Committee

24:51

rules, but still be Everybody knows

24:53

they were dictators.

24:57

So

24:57

let's make some

24:58

observations.

25:00

First, where

25:01

does the authority of so many of these

25:04

guys come from? It's

25:06

simple. It's

25:07

military victory. Look

25:10

at these names.

25:11

General Cromwell, general

25:14

Washington, general Bonaparte, general Louis

25:16

Vuitton, general Beliveret, general

25:18

Obregon. They

25:19

all made their name as military men.

25:22

So what is it about

25:24

generals? That so many of

25:26

these individual leaders who find the

25:28

end game of a revolution

25:30

come from the military. Well,

25:32

let's start by not overthinking it.

25:35

Sovereign

25:35

power is all about holding a preponderance

25:37

of force over your society. We've talked

25:39

about this at length. And if

25:41

you are

25:41

a military leader, who

25:44

has developed a loyal army,

25:46

well, that's kind of the ball game, isn't

25:48

it? Because who can possibly stand

25:50

against you but another army?

25:53

And

25:53

these guys were all successful not just in

25:56

combating foreign threats, but more

25:58

importantly, they

25:58

have very likely just won a

25:59

civil war. And

26:01

so at that point, there's quite literally no army that

26:03

can stand against them that army was

26:05

just defeated. But also just

26:08

in terms of the cult of

26:10

personality type influence that's

26:12

necessary to go along with these kind of

26:14

rulers? Military victory is a

26:16

great way to have your name and

26:18

face spread and wide either by

26:20

word-of-mouth or in newspapers, radio

26:23

broadcasts. For that kind of mass

26:25

reach, you need to be doing something

26:27

that affects all of

26:29

society. Be

26:29

involved in something that all of

26:31

society cares about.

26:33

The course of a war is one of those

26:35

things that everybody is gonna be talking

26:37

about. And so the victorious leader in

26:39

one side of this war is gonna get

26:41

talked about a lot. And

26:43

if they are victorious, then they are going to be talked about in

26:45

positive terms. The

26:48

military

26:48

course also functions as a hierarchy

26:50

with a commander in chief at the very

26:52

top and so it's practically built

26:54

for personalist rule. When all

26:56

the other institutions of society have

26:58

fallen apart, the army structure

27:01

transfer very nicely into the political arena, which

27:03

necessarily involves one person at

27:05

the very top giving orders.

27:09

Now with Lenin and Stalin, we have a unique

27:11

situation among our dictators as they commanded

27:13

their authority as political operators

27:15

not military generals. The

27:18

military

27:18

men who tried to become dictators,

27:20

people like Kornila, or Denise, and

27:22

her cold Chuck, were all

27:23

whites. They weren't reds.

27:26

Now

27:26

Trotsky ultimately derived some of his

27:28

personal authority from his successful organization

27:30

of the Red Army, but he

27:32

was a civilian hand guiding

27:35

the ship.

27:35

Not general Trotsky commander

27:38

in chief.

27:39

And he got outflanked and booted out of

27:41

the revolution anyway. But though

27:44

Lenin and Stalin derived their authority

27:46

from their ability to manipulate political

27:48

parties rather than their charismatic authority

27:50

as military leaders, It

27:52

is worth remembering that both of them were acutely aware

27:55

that they couldn't have charismatic

27:57

military heroes running around out there

27:59

challenging

27:59

their authority. That

28:01

had to guard against such figures emerging,

28:03

and they did constantly.

28:05

And we know what happened as

28:07

a result when World War two

28:10

got

28:10

started. Now the second

28:12

thing we can observe here is that almost

28:14

none of these leaders explicitly

28:16

set out on a road to be

28:19

a dictator. It is something that developed organically over the

28:21

course of the revolution and

28:23

developed from their

28:23

own experiences with politics during

28:26

this period. Cromwell didn't

28:27

start out by saying, oh, I'm gonna start as

28:29

a member of the landed gentry, but when I'm

28:32

done, I'll be Lord Protector. George

28:35

Washington didn't really want to be a political

28:37

leader at all. He kept trying to

28:39

get out of that job in a way that I think

28:41

transcends mere showmanship. Napoleon

28:43

was an ambitious young man, but he

28:45

was improvising all along the way, I don't

28:47

think emperor Napoleon was his plan from

28:50

the start. Absent the

28:52

Mexican

28:52

Revolution Alvaro Obregon

28:54

is just out there in the north raising

28:56

chickpeas. But

28:58

revolution did come and war came with it.

29:01

And a mix of

29:01

frustration and duty and

29:04

opportunity and ego convinced

29:06

each of these men that they must for the

29:08

good of society take power and reign

29:11

supreme. But in almost all of these

29:13

cases, it feels like something that they arrived

29:15

at in the due of time,

29:17

not something that they laid out as a

29:19

goal for themselves at the start of

29:21

the revolution.

29:23

A third thing we can

29:24

observe comes directly from that thought,

29:26

but which needs fuller expression, and

29:29

that is the bit

29:29

about ego. For

29:32

a variety of reasons, our leaders have come

29:34

to regard their own judgments and decisions

29:37

and choices as vital to the health

29:39

and well-being of their society. That

29:42

to remove themselves from the situation

29:44

would be to doom society, to

29:46

return to chaos. When we

29:48

look at people like believe are in

29:51

Cromwell, Basically concluding that everyone around them is

29:53

doing it wrong and therefore I must

29:55

remain so that the good and right thing

29:57

must be done We

29:59

can ask

29:59

what their

29:59

motivation is here because

30:02

not doing it how I want it done

30:04

is not necessarily the same

30:06

as not doing it right

30:08

unless you've got a rather large

30:11

ego. To reach the

30:12

point where dictatorial power is even

30:14

a possibility, you have to be something of

30:16

an ego maniac. Even Washington,

30:19

with

30:19

his supernatural aversion to dictatorial power,

30:22

was an egomaniac. Of course, he

30:25

was. You

30:25

can't spend any time around the guy and not conclude

30:27

that. At least compared

30:28

to a normal person, you don't have

30:30

the

30:30

kinds of careers these people

30:33

have without an unreasonable amount

30:35

of ambition and an unhealthy

30:37

level of self regard. It's

30:38

very abnormal and

30:40

their egos are doing a lot of the

30:42

work of convincing them that they have to stay power at

30:44

all costs. Otherwise, it's catastrophic not just

30:46

for them as individuals but for society

30:49

as a whole.

30:52

A fourth thing we can observe is that our charismatic

30:54

authority figures are always operating out

30:56

of something resembling a

30:59

middle ground. And

31:01

they're naturally gonna be to the right

31:03

of the most left wing radical elements

31:05

of any revolution, but they

31:06

are always also gonna be much further to

31:09

the left than any right wing element.

31:11

Whatever

31:11

else these people are, they're not

31:14

restorationists or reactionaries or

31:16

conservatives. They're

31:17

all revolutionary leaders, who often

31:19

continue to do revolutionary things

31:22

even

31:22

as they pull in a more conservative

31:25

direction. Cromwell

31:26

was a Republican, but he's not a leveller or a digger.

31:28

Washington tended to be a

31:30

centralist and a federalist, but is clearly

31:32

trying to balance the interest of

31:34

everyone in the American Revolutionary Coalition.

31:37

I mean, he went off and put

31:38

down a proto populist uprising in the west,

31:40

clearly prioritizing order over

31:43

liberty. But he's

31:44

also not trying to create a monarchy

31:46

in America. Bonaparte

31:48

tried to reconcile the revolution

31:50

with traditional French society inviting back

31:53

conservatives and cutting deals with the

31:55

Catholic church and restoring slavery in the

31:57

colonies. But

31:58

even in full dictator

31:59

mode, he was doing progressive things that the

32:02

revolution wanted done. Educational

32:04

and bureaucratic and legal reform

32:06

that the more technocratic side of the enlightenment

32:09

always wanted beside

32:10

that had always called for this, being delivered

32:12

by an enlightened dictator naturally.

32:15

And even Lenin and Stalin who come

32:17

to power from a radical left flank

32:19

of the Russian revolution had left

32:21

wing critics that they put down in

32:23

their rise to power. Left

32:24

communist and anarchist and left

32:27

SRs. Anyone

32:28

who would have preferred more bottom

32:30

up styles of authority and less top down

32:32

styles of authority? They had to

32:34

go

32:35

go. And that brings

32:37

me to the last observation I wanna make,

32:39

which will lead into what we're gonna talk about

32:42

next week. Is that in all of

32:44

these cases, with the real exception of

32:46

Louis Philippe, all of

32:47

our charismatic authority figures wind up

32:50

wielding more power, and

32:52

have a greater reach than

32:54

whatever ruler was in place prior to the

32:56

revolution. If you look

32:57

at the military resources and

33:00

financial resources available to the

33:02

size

33:02

of the bureaucracy out there doing

33:04

their bidding, the

33:05

breadth and depth that they can expect their laws

33:07

and decrees to be enforced throughout society,

33:10

We

33:10

always find a very big jump in the power

33:12

of the executive from what

33:14

King Charles was able to do to

33:16

what Oliver Cromwell was able to do.

33:19

Crown

33:19

in parliament in the North American

33:21

colonies versus president Washington in the

33:23

United States, Louis the sixteenth

33:25

versus Emperor Napoleon.

33:28

French

33:28

colonial administration in Santo Mang versus

33:30

Tucson Luvignaud. The

33:32

Spanish colonial administration in South America

33:34

versus Cimon Belivar. Louis

33:37

Philippe versus Napoleon III,

33:39

porphyria Diaz versus the PRI,

33:42

and finally, czar Nicholas against

33:44

Lenin and Stalin. You

33:46

would be extremely hard pressed to make the case that

33:48

the former's political authority exceeded

33:51

the ladders. Revolutions

33:53

don't just produce dictators. They

33:56

produce

33:56

powerful

33:58

dictators. And that

34:00

will

34:00

segue us nicely

34:02

into what we're gonna talk about next

34:04

week in our final appendix. We

34:07

will take a large

34:07

sweeping look back from the end of the revolution to

34:09

the beginning of the

34:12

revolution. When we look

34:13

back, we will ask What

34:15

happened? What

34:16

changed? Was it

34:19

worth it?

34:19

What did these

34:22

revolutions accomplish? Are revolutions

34:22

horrendous nightmares to be avoided

34:25

at all costs? Or are they

34:27

vital lurches forward to be cherished

34:30

and celebrated?

34:32

This final appendix

34:32

will be the second to last

34:35

episode of the revolution's podcast.

34:37

And so we will

34:39

wrap up appendices by wrapping up

34:41

our revolutions. And then the week after

34:43

that will be the final episode

34:45

of revolutions. When I

34:47

bid all

34:47

of you, a

34:49

bittersweet

34:52

at you.