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at tmobile.com/now. Hey

2:07

everyone, I'm Maria Kanakova and

2:09

welcome to a special episode

2:11

of Risky Business, our podcast

2:14

with Nate Silver, about making

2:16

better decisions. Except today, it's

2:18

just me and

2:20

a very special guest, Jennifer

2:23

Shahade. Jennifer

2:25

is someone who I've known for many years

2:28

and she is a truly

2:30

extraordinary individual. She is

2:32

a two times women's US chess

2:35

champ, the first woman to win

2:37

the junior championship, a

2:39

woman's grandmaster, and the

2:41

author of multiple books, Play

2:44

Like a Girl, Play Like a Champion,

2:47

Chess Bitch and Chess

2:49

Queens and the upcoming

2:51

Thinking Sideways. Jennifer,

2:54

thank you so much for joining. So

2:56

happy to have you here on Risky Business. Oh,

2:58

I'm so excited about your podcast, Maria.

3:00

It's wonderful to be here. So

3:04

I want to start with your upbringing

3:06

because you are someone who not only

3:08

is in a Risky Business because you

3:10

and I are actually members of

3:12

Poker Stars Team Pro together. So we also play

3:14

poker and that's

3:16

how we originally met. But

3:19

you are someone who's been thinking through

3:21

this lens of gaming for most of

3:23

your life. So I'd like to go

3:25

back to your childhood and I'd love

3:27

for you to tell us about how

3:29

you got introduced to the world of

3:31

games. Oh, it's honestly

3:33

before I can even remember, there's a picture

3:36

of me when I was two years old

3:38

playing against my brother in chess. And

3:41

obviously I don't think I knew the

3:43

moves quite then, but it definitely

3:47

really predated any

3:49

memories that I have. My parents

3:51

were also big lovers of card

3:53

games, poker, bridge, everything. And

3:55

our life is about games. And they

3:57

were also really big into sports and

3:59

sports. betting. So I know that's another

4:01

aspect of this podcast. So I feel

4:03

much at home here. I

4:06

actually didn't know that about sports betting. So

4:08

let's return to that in a second. But

4:10

first, your brother is actually also someone who

4:12

is well known in the world of chess,

4:14

as is your father. Right. So you are

4:16

someone who comes from what's known

4:18

as a chess family. Yeah,

4:20

that's right. And it's really typical, honestly,

4:23

it's a very, very typical way for

4:25

chess players to get into the game

4:27

is via their family, especially women players.

4:29

I feel like when you talk to a female player,

4:31

it's very, very typical that her brother plays, her father

4:34

plays, her mother plays. And I think a lot of

4:36

that is it just gives them that like kind of

4:38

built in support network. And

4:40

what was it about the game

4:43

chess that first attracted you? Was

4:45

it the competitive angle? Or

4:47

was it the fact that you're thinking about

4:49

kind of decision making on

4:51

a different level? Do you happen to remember

4:53

because I, you know, when I was

4:55

a little kid, my parents tried to get me

4:58

to play chess and that did not stick. Yeah,

5:00

I think I heard about this. The scholars

5:02

made right before we checked me. Listen,

5:05

it happened to Beth Harmon and she

5:08

recovered from it. So, you know, you're good. Yes,

5:13

for listeners of the podcast who

5:15

don't know this story. When I

5:17

was in fifth grade, I learned how

5:19

to play chess. And during my

5:21

first ever chess competition, succumbed

5:24

to Scholars Mate, which is a mate

5:26

in three moves. And

5:28

that was a move that was done by a five year

5:30

old when I was in fifth grade. And

5:32

I never recovered and have never played chess

5:34

since then. So, you

5:37

clearly had a very different experience. Yeah,

5:39

well, I'm sure I got made it in the scholars.

5:41

I do remember getting made in the scholars mate. And

5:43

it's a bit of a tangent, but because it's risky

5:45

business, I am going to mention a

5:47

story about the scholars mate. So, a

5:50

lot of kids, like the horrible five

5:52

year old who checkmated you in four

5:54

moves, they try the scholars mate because

5:56

it works, but it's not a good

5:58

opening. Right. because if

6:01

your opponent knows to avoid it, then,

6:03

you know, you're gonna get a bad position.

6:06

So it's very much an equity calculation. So

6:08

the scholars made at the age of like five

6:10

and six, kids are thinking about that, actually. And

6:14

my son actually was sitting in on an online class with

6:17

Magnus Carlsen, the highest rated chess player

6:19

in history. Your son, how

6:21

old is he? He's seven now. And

6:24

he is sitting in on a

6:26

class with Magnus Carlsen. And what's

6:28

your son's name? Fabian. And

6:30

who is he named after? Well, in

6:32

a way, he was named after the

6:34

world number two player, Fabiano Caruana. There

6:37

you go. Actually, in a way. In

6:39

a way. All right. So

6:41

back to your story. So Fabian is in

6:43

this class with Magnus Carlsen. And one of the

6:45

kids asks Magnus, like, what do you think about

6:47

the form of checkmate? And, you know, everybody's expecting

6:49

Magnus is just gonna say, no, don't play the

6:51

form of checkmate. It's not

6:53

a good opening. But Magnus is like, yeah, you know, it's

6:55

not that bad to try it. And

6:57

I really I was like, everybody was shocked. And one of the

6:59

coaches in the room tried to like, actually

7:02

disagree with Magnus on the air.

7:04

And I'm like, wait a second.

7:07

And no, I actually thought about it later. And I

7:09

really loved it because I think what he was trying

7:11

to say, I mean, he didn't expand on it. But

7:13

as many people might know, Magnus also really likes poker.

7:15

And he also really likes sports betting. Is

7:18

that, you know, why try to take away

7:20

this instinct of children to go for equity?

7:23

Like, actually, it's a good instinct, you know, like,

7:26

yeah, you're gonna you're not gonna get that checkmate every

7:28

time. But the 10 or 20% of

7:30

the time that you do, you're gonna win in four moves. So,

7:33

you know, it was the first time

7:35

I'd ever heard a grandmaster say

7:37

that. And it stuck

7:40

with me. So that's

7:42

actually, though, a really interesting story.

7:45

And I love how you mentioned

7:47

the idea of equity and

7:49

how we think about equity. And now

7:52

in poker, when you're talking about equity, you're

7:54

talking about something very specific, right? The equity

7:56

of your hand, the future value of your

7:58

hand, how many chips you can. Imagine

8:00

getting in the future. It's kind of

8:02

this calculation that you're constantly trying

8:05

to make. So when you're talking about equity

8:07

in chess, are you thinking about it in

8:09

the same way or is it slightly different?

8:12

Well, that's a great question when it comes

8:14

to talking about somebody like Magnus Carlsen, because

8:16

I really think that it used to be

8:19

very different. When I was a kid playing

8:21

chess, we didn't really think about equity or

8:23

probability. It was more like we were

8:25

looking for the best move. And

8:27

that is the way that most chess

8:30

computers taught us as well. But nowadays,

8:32

I think that chess players are thinking

8:34

more like poker players. They are thinking

8:36

about equity even more. They're thinking

8:38

not just about what the best move is,

8:40

but more about what move is likely to

8:43

destabilize your opponent and make them potentially fall

8:45

for the form of checkmate so that you

8:47

can win that 10% of the times right

8:49

now. So

8:52

it's become really a ruthless equity hunting

8:54

game just like poker. So

8:57

you're really thinking about not just

8:59

kind of the present moment, but

9:01

the future and you're trying to

9:03

make this probabilistic calculation, not just

9:05

what does this move mean right

9:07

now, but what does this move

9:09

mean for my future ability to

9:12

win, given that there's an X

9:14

probability that it's going to make

9:16

my opponent get really nervous. There's

9:18

a Y probability that it's going

9:20

to make my opponent blunder. So

9:23

is that kind of how we're thinking about

9:25

it now? Exactly.

9:27

Of course, in chess, we're always trying to

9:29

think about what our opponent will play. But

9:31

usually when I was taught, I was

9:34

always told, always assume your opponent is going to play the

9:36

best move because if they

9:39

play a weaker move, you'll win anyway. But if

9:41

they play the best move, you need to really

9:43

prepare for that. Nowadays, I think there's a little

9:45

bit more nuance. Well, people will really think

9:48

about the psychological aspect of the game of chess

9:50

more. And in that

9:52

way, I think the games of chess and poker are really

9:54

starting to converge a little bit. Chess

9:56

players are playing a little bit more like poker

9:58

players. And well, we definitely know. that poker players

10:00

are a little bit more chess-like these days in

10:02

the way they study and approach the game. Yeah,

10:06

that's a really interesting point because one of

10:08

the things that you said really jumped out

10:10

at me, you said, in chess, we no

10:12

longer kind of assume that your opponent is

10:14

going to make the best move.

10:17

And in poker,

10:20

you actually are now

10:23

assuming that your opponent is going to

10:26

play game theory maximal, is going to

10:28

make the best move every time, and

10:30

you're trying to counter that. Because

10:33

in an interesting way, I think

10:35

poker is at a stage of

10:38

its evolution where chess has been for a while,

10:40

where there are now solvers and kind of ways

10:42

that try to approximate ideal behavior,

10:44

quote unquote, even though in poker it's

10:46

different than in chess because it is

10:48

an imperfect information game. But

10:51

I do think it's this really interesting

10:53

overlap in terms of decisions and in

10:55

terms of what we consider to be

10:57

optimal decision making. I think that's the

10:59

reason why honestly poker is so tantalizing,

11:02

why it stood the test of time,

11:04

that you kind of have to balance

11:06

the two poles. To me, the word

11:08

poker itself, like playing

11:10

poker, means adjusting, being

11:13

present, paying attention

11:15

and actually thinking about what your

11:17

opponent is doing. And the

11:19

other stuff is the theory that you fall back on

11:21

if you don't really pick up on anything, if your

11:23

ability to try to pay attention and see what your

11:26

opponent doesn't give you much of a read, and then

11:28

you're just like, well, I guess this is what I

11:30

have to do. And

11:33

that to me is that everlasting tension

11:35

between what you think and what you

11:37

feel and having to choose

11:39

between them in every situation. So

11:44

it seems like what

11:46

you're saying, and this is also me

11:48

being biased as someone who

11:50

plays poker and doesn't play chess. But

11:54

it seems like poker

11:58

is a better if we're trying if we We then go

12:00

from the world of games to the world of real life.

12:03

It seems like poker might be a better

12:06

way of thinking about risk and

12:08

decision making as we interact

12:10

with people and make decisions away from

12:12

the game table. Yeah,

12:15

I think poker does mirror life

12:17

more than chess does, partly because

12:20

it's not fair. You

12:22

know, there's some people who get lucky, there's

12:24

people who get lucky three or four times

12:26

in a row, there are people who start

12:28

out with the ability to rebuy over

12:31

and over again and keep buying into the game

12:33

even if they play badly or bust.

12:36

So there's just a lot of more similarities

12:38

with life. And then the fact that the

12:40

currency of poker is money is chips, which

12:42

stand for money. And so much about life

12:45

is what power you have based on how

12:47

much money you have and how much capital

12:49

you have. So for sure,

12:51

I think there are more like

12:54

day-to-day decisions that you can make

12:56

from poker. That said, as a

12:59

lifelong chess player, I have to give some

13:01

shout outs to chess too, because one of

13:03

the beautiful things about chess is that it

13:06

does bring you into this like beautiful

13:08

flow state. And that's really why

13:10

I love chess for children too, because you can

13:12

see them kind of achieve that

13:14

state even at like six, seven, eight years

13:17

old. And maybe they're

13:19

not going to be professional chess players, I mean, very few

13:21

of them will. But my hope is

13:23

always that they'll remember that flow state and be

13:25

able to kind of jump into

13:27

that in other parts of their lives and

13:30

just like forget about everything else that is

13:32

going on and just enjoy the moment. So

13:34

I think that that's an interesting

13:38

thing about chess versus poker that I

13:40

hadn't really thought about, because for me,

13:42

poker is a way that I've actually

13:44

been able to achieve flow states quite

13:47

often, because when you're really in the zone,

13:49

since it's the only game I play, it's

13:51

the only time that kind of I found

13:53

myself in that sort of situation.

13:56

When did you make the switch from chess

13:58

to poker? Obviously, you've never switched entirely, you

14:00

still play chess. But in

14:02

terms of kind of your interest, when did

14:05

you start migrating

14:07

in that direction? You

14:09

know, it was kind of gradual. My brother got

14:11

into poker and I was dabbling

14:13

in it via him and some of my other

14:16

chess friends, because at the time of the poker

14:18

boom, a lot of chess

14:20

players, backgammon players, anyone

14:22

who really had an interest in any kind

14:24

of game were flocking to poker because they

14:26

thought, honestly, it was easy money. And

14:29

it's funny because I was a little slow

14:31

to the game compared to them. And I

14:33

remember my mother, who was

14:35

the stone opposite of all my other

14:38

poker friends' moms, because she called me

14:40

once and she was like, Jen, why aren't you

14:42

playing more poker like your friends? What's going on?

14:45

I love that. And

14:48

so, yeah, but I finally did take her advice

14:50

and I got a bit more into it. But,

14:52

you know, I always had like, I think one

14:55

of the issues that it's a little underestimated in

14:57

poker is that it's really important to have, especially

14:59

if you want to play live poker. And in

15:01

the United States right now, unfortunately,

15:03

there's not a lot of regulated places

15:05

that you can play online. You really

15:07

need a decent chunk of money. It's

15:10

not that easy to get in there. I

15:12

mean, it's probably better than most games because

15:14

you can kind of hang out and, you

15:16

know, go to like the

15:18

one, two or one, three tables, like the

15:20

lower poker table, the

15:22

lowest buy in that you can find

15:25

in Vegas or Atlantic City.

15:27

And you can maybe have a few hours of

15:29

entertainment for a couple hundred bucks. But

15:31

overall, like it's an expensive hobby, I

15:33

would say. So that's probably why it

15:35

took me a little while to get

15:37

more into it. So your son

15:40

plays chess right now, but not poker, correct?

15:43

Right. That's right. But he loves watching

15:45

poker. You're one of his favorite players.

15:47

He likes you, Maria

15:49

Ho and Shuan Lu. And well,

15:51

of course me. So he's

15:55

also at the top women's players. I

15:58

love that it's so female-centered. because that's

16:00

actually, that's so important. And, you know,

16:02

that's, it's a really wonderful thing to

16:04

see that women can also excel in

16:06

a game that

16:09

is so incredibly male-dominated.

16:12

When he watches poker, is he interested in

16:14

the strategic elements? Is he thinking of it

16:16

kind of in the same terms that you've

16:18

taught him to think about chess? Yeah,

16:21

but I find that kids, it's

16:23

harder for them to understand poker than chess,

16:26

even though, you know, technically it probably is

16:28

easier to teach an adult. The rules of poker

16:30

than the rules of chess, partly because kids don't

16:32

usually know that much about, about

16:34

money. And I think also the

16:36

probabilistic thinking is pretty tricky for them as

16:39

well. So yeah, he's definitely

16:41

looking to see what people have and whether

16:43

they're going to make their hand, but I

16:46

wouldn't say it comes supernaturally to

16:48

kids. And I think

16:50

that that's a really crucial point because

16:52

one of the things that I love

16:54

about poker is that it does teach

16:56

probabilistic thinking, which is something that does

16:58

not come naturally to the human brain

17:00

at all, right? We are so bad

17:03

at calculating risk, at calculating probabilities, at

17:05

thinking in that way. It's

17:07

just not something that comes

17:09

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21:24

you. Now

21:28

switching away from kind of you as

21:30

gamer and you now kind of in

21:32

your professional life. So you are

21:35

a writer as well. You're someone

21:37

who's been involved professionally in chess

21:39

organizations, in teaching and mentoring women

21:42

and all of these things. How

21:45

has your thinking about risk, about risk-taking

21:47

migrated over from the fact that

21:50

you grew up kind of trained

21:52

in this game's way of thinking?

21:54

And how has it not? Because I think

21:57

that you obviously hear both perspectives, right?

21:59

You hear the people. who say, oh, you know,

22:01

chess poker, et cetera, they really helped me and

22:03

they helped me make decisions. And then there are

22:05

some people, and maybe they wouldn't say it, but

22:07

I know some poker players who are really good

22:09

at poker and then just so dumb away from

22:11

the poker table. So I'd love

22:13

to hear how you think about it. Finance

22:15

class or an econ class. And I really

22:18

feel like poker is just like a miniature

22:20

lesson and in finance and just even the

22:22

idea that if you just put your money

22:24

in a checking account and don't do anything

22:27

to it, you're technically losing money because of

22:29

inflation. I mean, poker teaches you that very

22:31

quickly because you got an ante. And

22:34

so the anes go up as

22:36

the tournament progresses. So you

22:38

will lose money if you don't do anything. And

22:41

I just love that analogy because I feel

22:44

that you feel it very viscerally

22:46

if you play poker

22:48

in a few tournaments and you don't play

22:50

enough hands, you lose your money slowly. You

22:52

play too many hands, you lose your money

22:55

quickly. I mean, what better metaphor is

22:57

there for like investing wisely? I

22:59

can't think of one. Did

23:03

you, do you feel like you have a

23:05

higher risk tolerance? Because obviously, as a fellow

23:08

writer, I know that writing books has a

23:10

huge risk, both financially and personally,

23:12

because you're putting yourself out there. Do

23:15

you think that you were more prepared to do that

23:18

because you understand the way that risk

23:20

works? Yeah, definitely. I

23:22

also started to understand, especially with bluffing,

23:24

that if you in poker are

23:26

never getting called and realizing that,

23:28

you know, hey, you've got to eat

23:30

high, that you're actually not bluffing

23:33

enough. And so I started to realize that maybe

23:35

in life I wasn't taking enough risks because I wasn't

23:37

getting told no enough, that people were

23:39

too happy with me all the time. If people

23:41

are always happy with you, it means that maybe

23:43

you're not asking for enough. You're not putting enough

23:46

pressure on them. You're not asking for enough money.

23:48

You're not getting told no, that is too high.

23:51

And so I definitely figured that out from

23:53

poker. And I think that that's a lesson that a lot of

23:55

women have to learn from poker. I'd

23:58

love to actually talk. about

24:00

that a little bit. Obviously,

24:03

poker is an incredibly male-dominated

24:05

area, and chess is also

24:07

an incredibly male-dominated area. Now,

24:12

when you start negotiating while

24:14

female, right, it's like

24:16

driving while drunk, negotiating while female, I'm

24:19

using that language on purpose because

24:22

it's a very, very different beast.

24:24

And I found that, you know,

24:27

I was horrible at negotiating pre-poker,

24:30

and I am much better

24:33

at negotiating now than

24:35

I ever was before, but you still get penalized

24:37

for trying to ask for more, for

24:40

trying to actually get what you're worth as

24:42

a woman, because the exact same tactics, and

24:45

this is true at the poker table too, that work

24:47

for men don't work for women. You

24:49

know, if I try to be as aggressive as, you know,

24:51

some of the best male players, that might not work for

24:54

me in the same way that it works for them. These

24:56

are all things that you have to consider because decision-making here

24:58

isn't existing in a vacuum. You

25:01

know, when you're making decisions and you're female,

25:03

and you're perceived as female, that's very different

25:05

than when you're making decisions as a man

25:07

and being perceived as a man. Absolutely,

25:10

and I think that's the reality, is

25:12

that it's logical a lot of times for women

25:14

to be less risky, and that's what we need

25:16

to change. We need to change the

25:18

circumstances so that they can take more

25:20

risks wisely. Because if you were going to

25:22

be penalized if

25:25

you take risk, if there's no childcare, if

25:27

there's no, you know, policies for women who

25:30

leave the workplace, if they don't have as much

25:32

capital, if their wages are lower, then actually it's

25:34

really smart for

25:36

them to be risk-averse, right? And so I do think it's

25:39

not about telling women, you should take more risks. That's only part

25:41

of it. The other part of it is, how do we create

25:43

a circumstance where

25:47

they can take more risks? I think that's a really,

25:49

really important point. And Nate and I on, actually, the

25:53

first ever episode of Risky Business talked

25:55

about the gender pay gap

25:58

and how, I think, A lot of

26:00

that is because women have to make different

26:03

decisions, different choices, because women are penalized

26:05

for having children, that there are a lot

26:07

of things that society just isn't equipped

26:09

for when it comes to negotiating

26:11

while female, deciding while female, working

26:14

while female. Absolutely.

26:16

And I did listen to that episode, and I

26:18

also really liked the part in your book, The

26:20

Biggest Buff, where you talk about how you raised

26:22

your speaker rate. And I believe you got an

26:24

immediate yes. So it turned out that that risk

26:26

was one that worked out very much in your

26:29

favor, but I'm sure occasionally you asked for so

26:31

much. They said no, and

26:33

you had to enjoy that experience because it

26:35

was part of you raising your rates correctly,

26:37

that occasionally you get a no, right? That's

26:40

absolutely right. I think you have to become more

26:42

comfortable with hearing no, and with saying, you know

26:45

what, that's fine, because this is what I'm worth.

26:47

And if you don't want to pay me that,

26:49

then that's OK. And

26:52

learning how to walk away is, I think, a skill that

26:54

I learned from the poker table as well. Absolutely.

26:58

Super important. I

27:00

think even so through all that, I think I

27:02

am still pretty risk averse on a few things.

27:04

Like I am going to show

27:07

up at the airport two

27:09

and a half hours, and if I'm only two hours early,

27:11

I get a little bit stressed out. So,

27:13

you know. That

27:16

is funny. I'm planning a trip to

27:18

the airport, and it's an international

27:20

trip, and I'm trying to figure out if I'm

27:23

going to be pushing it if I arrive with

27:25

an hour to spare, if that's going to be

27:27

OK. Yeah. Yeah.

27:30

And there's that saying that if you're always

27:32

on time for flights and you're not missing

27:34

enough flights, I'm not sure I really buy

27:37

that. No. It

27:39

took me missing one very important

27:41

flight for me to never take

27:43

that saying seriously, but I probably

27:45

have a slightly higher risk tolerance

27:47

in flights than you. So

27:50

that'll be an individual difference. I

27:53

do want to talk about, since we are now

27:55

talking about kind of being female in a world

27:57

of men and the decisions that women

28:00

make, in light of

28:03

recent remarks by Andrew

28:06

Huberman about women's

28:08

pregnancies and some pretty

28:10

fundamental misunderstanding of how

28:12

probabilities work, I'd

28:16

love for you to just kind of recount

28:18

that a little bit. But it also

28:20

reminded me of an op-ed that you

28:22

wrote for the Wall Street Journal where

28:24

you were correctly calculating similar probabilities about

28:26

childbirth. Yeah, so

28:29

I think it was a few weeks ago

28:31

that Huberman put out a t- actually was

28:33

on his podcast. So it went viral on

28:35

Twitter. But Dr. Huberman had a podcast where

28:38

he was talking about the chances of a

28:40

woman getting pregnant after six cycles. And

28:43

well, he said, well, it should be 20%

28:45

the first time, right,

28:47

and then 20% the second time, so

28:49

then 40% that

28:52

you'd be pregnant by month two, and then

28:54

60% that you'd be pregnant by month three,

28:58

80% by month four, and then 100% chances that

29:01

you'll be pregnant by month five, right?

29:04

And I think then I don't know what happens on

29:06

month six. I guess the incidence

29:08

of twins. 120, 120. OK, oh, yes, because

29:10

of course there's like a chance that you'd

29:12

have twins. So that's where the 20% comes

29:14

in. And

29:18

well, he got like predictably crushed

29:22

for this tweet. It must

29:24

have had like thousands and thousands of

29:27

quote tweets making fun of his incorrect

29:29

math. And some people would correctly state

29:31

it. And to his credit, he retracted

29:34

it and explained what he got wrong. And he

29:36

did it in a nice way. And I was

29:38

actually really happy to see it because I was

29:40

like, oh, this is a great learning opportunity because

29:42

this has gone viral, that this is not the

29:44

way to calculate probability. Because I have to

29:46

tell you, before I played poker and before I tried to

29:49

get pregnant, I don't think I knew exactly the correct

29:51

way to set this up either. I mean, I probably

29:53

learned it in middle school or high school math, but

29:55

I don't know if I remembered it until a little

29:57

later, until college, or even when I

29:59

learned poker. So I think there's a

30:01

lot of people out there who also didn't know

30:03

because it seems like yeah Why wouldn't you just

30:05

add up the probabilities, right? But what you really

30:07

need to do is Multiply the

30:09

chance of me not pregnant a month one That's 80% and

30:12

then the second month is also 80% and then you get 64

30:18

and then minus that from one and you get 36%

30:20

right? so

30:22

that's my actual chance of pregnancy and

30:24

then it gets it continues

30:26

on and Yeah, it's a

30:29

bit frustrating because it means that your chances

30:31

are actually lower than it would seem Because

30:34

you aren't more likely to get

30:36

luck like lucky just because you

30:38

got unlucky the first time It's

30:40

basically a version of the gambler's

30:42

fallacy, right? That if

30:44

you are healthy and there's no like

30:46

medical reason for you not to be

30:48

able to get pregnant If

30:51

you've got an unlucky the first four cycles and

30:53

tough luck, you know, you're still only got a

30:55

20% chance Sorry,

30:57

and we know that from poker

30:59

right like you could lose your hand

31:02

where you're a 50-50 chance to win

31:04

five times in a row and you're

31:06

still 50-50 on that six chance and

31:08

it's very frustrating if you're getting unlucky

31:10

and it's super awesome if you're getting

31:12

lucky, right and I

31:15

had personal experience on this in both sides so

31:18

with my son Fabian who I mentioned

31:21

earlier I got

31:23

Lucky on the second try. So

31:25

my husband and I We

31:28

got pregnant almost immediately and it was

31:30

a healthy pregnancy. It was an awesome

31:32

pregnancy Everything went perfectly

31:35

and so I'm like the person who just starts playing

31:37

poker and wins their first tournament I'm

31:39

like and I I I know this

31:42

is very sensitive subject So, you know

31:44

just to anybody who finds this very

31:46

sensitive, you know, feel free to pause

31:48

and come back to the next section

31:51

But I as a poker player and somebody who

31:53

struggles with this it actually helped me to think

31:55

about in these terms It could seem craven to

31:58

other people but I I

32:00

got super lucky and then I had, of course,

32:02

an inflated sense of confidence that when I tried

32:04

a couple years later, I would

32:06

probably get lucky again. And

32:08

unfortunately, that was not the case. And this

32:10

is more common than people think it's called

32:12

secondary infertility, where you have an easy time

32:14

the first time, but then the second time

32:17

you don't get there to use a

32:20

poker expression. And

32:22

when I finally did get pregnant,

32:24

unfortunately, I had a pretty late

32:26

miscarriage. So yeah,

32:29

it was a real nightmare. And

32:32

I think that the experience of

32:34

poker did help me because it

32:36

taught me that I still had

32:39

made some really good logical decisions. And my husband

32:41

and I trying to get pregnant and in most

32:43

universes, we would have had our two kids, but

32:46

it just didn't work out. And the one that

32:48

we live because of the math

32:50

going against us and us being in that kind

32:52

of unlucky category.

32:55

Well, thank you so much for sharing that. And

32:58

I'm really sorry that you had to

33:00

go through that experience. It's

33:03

obviously a very emotional

33:05

experience to have.

33:09

And I really appreciate you sharing that because I

33:11

do think that it's

33:13

important for people to hear it, but

33:15

it's also important to just viscerally understand

33:17

how probabilities work. And that's the world,

33:20

right? probabilities are not correctly,

33:23

quote unquote, distributed. They're not as

33:25

pretty as you think they're

33:27

going to be. And

33:29

nothing ever adds up to 100 percent

33:31

somehow. You always have those missing percent

33:33

somewhere that go into another universe

33:36

where something else happened. Absolutely. And I think

33:38

it's really important for people to be aware

33:40

of that because I don't think I was

33:42

fully aware of that. Like, I certainly glanced

33:44

at some of these charts earlier in life,

33:47

but I don't think I was appreciated the

33:49

odds of miscarriage. And being that I'm somebody

33:51

who likes to show up at the airport

33:53

three hours early, I do think

33:55

that I probably would have started a family a

33:58

little bit earlier if I had been. as aware.

34:00

So I like that people are being educated at

34:02

it. Now, I'm a very

34:04

much a feminist, and so I think it's a

34:06

completely awesome choice for people to have one child,

34:08

to have no children. But what

34:11

bothers me is the idea that there's somebody who

34:13

wants children, but isn't really acquainted with the math,

34:15

and then, you know, has to

34:17

struggle financially and emotionally through this kind of,

34:20

you know, turmoil. And if Dr. Hoomerman

34:22

is getting it wrong, then I can tell

34:24

you, there's a lot of women in

34:26

their 20s, 30s, who are men

34:28

too, who are married to women and they

34:30

want to have kids with, like, that don't

34:32

know this math and, you know, get hit

34:34

by it and are a little bit disappointed

34:36

and struggling. And so yeah, I was happy

34:38

to see that tweet. Yeah, well,

34:41

so PSA for people who,

34:43

like me, have always said, I hate math,

34:45

and math is not important. Math

34:47

is really important and plays out in

34:49

unexpected ways in life decisions throughout your

34:52

life. And I took statistics classes in

34:54

grad school because I needed to, you

34:56

know, have statistical analysis when I was

34:59

working on my dissertation, etc,

35:01

etc. But it never hit home in kind

35:03

of an actual practical

35:05

way until I

35:07

sat down at a poker table and

35:10

actually saw these probabilities at play, actually

35:12

experienced what it felt like to be,

35:14

you know, a 70% favorite 10 times

35:16

in a row and lose every single

35:19

time and say, wait, how is that

35:21

happening? Right? Now you understand why all

35:23

of these psychological fallacies exist. And

35:26

then also just being grateful for the times that you,

35:28

your 80% hits. I think there's this

35:30

feeling like, ah, yeah, well, I was supposed

35:33

to win, so I won. But no, I

35:35

actually feel like gratitude when I, you know,

35:37

have, have like a pleasant trip to wherever

35:39

I'm going to. I'm like, wow, nothing went

35:41

wrong. Like 90%. I got there. Yeah. And

35:44

it's, it's good, right? It's a good feeling

35:46

to appreciate that. Yeah. It's funny that you

35:48

say that. I'm so glad you think about

35:50

that, as well, because whenever, you

35:52

know, I'm all in and I have aces, I

35:55

always, and I, this is totally rational, but I

35:57

give like the poker gods a little prayer. You

36:00

know, I hope it holds, right? I hope my

36:02

aces hold. I hope that my

36:04

chance of winning actually ends

36:06

up turning into the outcome of

36:08

winning because those two things are

36:11

not one and the same. Absolutely,

36:14

yes. Appreciate every day that nothing

36:16

goes horribly wrong. I mean, that's

36:18

a good way that you can

36:20

kind of become happier from poker.

36:23

Absolutely. It has made me a happier person

36:25

because it's made me able to

36:27

let go of negative outcomes in real life

36:29

much more easily because, you know, it's just

36:31

a mindset of I can't control it. Did

36:34

I make the right decision? Right? Was I

36:36

an 80% favorite? And then if it didn't go

36:38

my way, I didn't hold, but I

36:40

did the right thing. And sometimes that can

36:42

be hard in practice, but it's definitely become

36:45

much easier for me over time. Yeah,

36:47

I've noticed that about you. You're very positive in like

36:49

the things that you surround yourself with and the things

36:52

you talk about and the people that you surround

36:54

yourself with. And I think that's like, you

36:57

know, that conscious choice is so important because

36:59

obviously you have to be aware of negativity

37:01

and bad outcomes, but you can control some

37:03

parts of it. And it seems like you've

37:05

done a like a conscious job of that.

37:08

Am I right? Yeah, yeah. I mean, it

37:10

has been a conscious choice and I have

37:12

called kind of the people that I associate

37:14

with so that I only really try

37:16

to spend time with people who bring me joy

37:19

and who put me in a positive space. And

37:22

I try to focus on the positive elements because,

37:25

you know, the way that I think about it is

37:27

life's too short to dwell on bad beats and

37:29

bad beats are going to happen. Yeah. Your

37:32

first rule from Eric Seidel, right? Yes,

37:34

absolutely. No bad beat stories. Yes,

37:37

that is correct. And for

37:39

people who haven't read The Biggest Bluff, Eric Seidel

37:42

is a poker legend and was my coach and

37:44

mentor from the movie

37:46

Rounders. But I

37:48

feel like there's a life corollary for that for people

37:50

who don't play poker. I think a really good one

37:52

would be like a story about how you missed

37:55

your flight or you missed your train or your

37:57

your travel was really unpleasant. I feel like that's

37:59

a kind of like a bad beat story in

38:01

a way. Sometimes they're interesting. And

38:04

just occasionally bad beat stories are interesting too, but

38:06

I guess it's like the exception, not the rule.

38:09

I think you're absolutely right. And I think

38:11

that something that I actually learned from my

38:13

mom that I've tried to internalize and that,

38:16

you know, Eric, the no bad beat stories,

38:19

for my whole life she said, you know, don't

38:21

complain, right? Don't try to blame other people when

38:23

things go wrong. Don't say, oh,

38:25

well, you know, I can't believe this person

38:27

scheduled this here. I can't believe this happened.

38:30

I can't believe, oh, it's so unfair. She

38:32

said, don't do that because you can't control

38:34

it. You can't control other people. So instead

38:36

of blaming other people, just take the blame

38:38

on yourself and try to figure out, what

38:40

can I do? What can

38:42

I do differently next time? And what can I

38:45

do right now to mitigate the situation? And that's

38:47

just, I think, a much more positive way of

38:49

thinking about risk and of thinking about how you

38:51

deal with it in the moment when those percentages,

38:54

when that variance does not go in your direction,

38:56

especially when you knew you were taking a gamble,

38:58

right? If I miss a flight and I

39:00

cut it close, that is on me. I

39:03

should not blame the traffic. I should not blame

39:05

the cab driver for taking the wrong route. You

39:07

know, it is on me. It is not on

39:09

any of those things. We'll

39:13

be right back after the break. I'm

39:22

Malcolm Gabell, and I'd like to take a

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you have to be conscientious, to

41:09

follow through and make things happen. Those

41:12

two are obvious, but the third one

41:14

is the crucial one. You

41:16

have to be willing to do what you think is right, even

41:18

when everyone around you thinks you're an

41:20

idiot. There isn't a brilliant

41:23

innovator in history who wasn't surrounded

41:25

by naysayers. Most of

41:27

us can't take that kind of criticism

41:29

and we fold, but the disruptor doesn't.

41:32

They soldier on. I've been

41:34

looking at disruptors and their success stories a

41:36

lot lately, partly because I'm working on a

41:38

follow-up to The Tipping Point. The market disruption

41:40

plays a key role in how ideas take

41:42

off, but also because I'm

41:44

going to be the keynote speaker at

41:47

this year's Unconventional Awards from T-Mobile for

41:49

Business. It's an event

41:51

where customers are recognized for kicking

41:53

convention to the curb to elevate

41:56

their company, while also doing meaningful

41:58

things for their community. And

44:00

I should say that the abuser

44:03

also was banned from these.

44:06

You were incredibly brave

44:08

and took a huge, huge

44:10

personal risk when

44:12

you exposed someone very well known

44:14

in the chess community. And

44:16

when you did that, multiple other

44:19

women came forward as well. But

44:21

you were reprimanded for it, you were blamed

44:23

for it, and you ended up leaving your

44:26

role in a lot of very prominent chess

44:28

organizations, which were a huge part of how

44:30

you made a living. Yeah, that

44:33

has been a very big part of my

44:35

life. And I should say that the abuser

44:38

also was banned from these

44:41

chess institutions. And so

44:44

I am very proud

44:46

of the awareness that it's caused

44:48

in the chess community. And

44:52

I can't speak in more

44:54

detail about it right now, but I really

44:57

appreciate your support on that, Maria,

44:59

as well. Because I must say that having

45:01

a community in poker and in chess

45:04

has been really beneficial to me because I

45:06

found that the poker world has been so

45:08

supportive, which I wasn't

45:11

honestly completely expecting. But

45:13

one of the things I think people do go to

45:15

poker a lot of the time because they want to

45:18

have their own careers. And

45:20

sometimes that ends up being a secondary career as

45:22

well, where they do poker and something else. And

45:25

that always gives you more power, doesn't it? It

45:29

absolutely does. And we

45:31

won't talk about this more, but I do want

45:33

to say that I'm very proud of you. And

45:35

you clearly have taken kind of this risk

45:38

taking from

45:40

the world of games to a

45:42

very personal place in your life.

45:44

You made the calculation. You knew

45:46

what the costs could be, and

45:48

you did it anyway. And

45:50

being able to act like that and to do

45:52

that in real life and not just to go

45:54

all in at the poker table, because this is

45:56

effectively what you were doing. You

45:59

went all in. And it was not a bluff. And

46:02

that is something that takes a lot of guts and

46:04

a lot of courage because it

46:06

did upend your life. So I just want to

46:08

say that I think you should be incredibly proud

46:11

of your ability to take

46:13

risky decision making to an extreme that a

46:15

lot of people would not be able to

46:17

do. Thank you. I

46:19

would love to hear kind of what you

46:22

have next in store. I know you have

46:24

a new book coming out, Thinking Sideways, which

46:26

is also about risk and that kind of

46:28

thinking. So I'd love to hear a little

46:30

bit more about it. But I'd also just

46:32

love to hear about how you're thinking about

46:35

your life kind of moving forward, how your

46:37

equity calculation to bring it back to the

46:39

beginning of our conversation, how that's

46:41

looking right now. Well, you

46:43

know, it's really an interesting time for me

46:45

is I kind of like diving more into

46:47

writing and to poker as well. And

46:50

I feel like it's a very intellectually rich

46:53

time for me. And it's just like so

46:55

fun. I know that you're working

46:57

on a book on cheating. And one thing

46:59

that came up a lot in my recent

47:02

book, Thinking Sideways, is also kind of the

47:04

cheating and chess scandals that have erupted. And

47:06

that's something I've really been thinking a lot

47:08

because it's just a story that doesn't die.

47:10

What's kind of the basic idea of the

47:12

book? What can we expect? Well,

47:15

really the basic idea of the book is ways you

47:17

can learn about life from chess. And I had a

47:19

lot of poker in there as well. And

47:21

I think that the title would be quite

47:23

interesting to people because when you ask a

47:26

chess player how many moves you think ahead,

47:28

you're often expecting that to be the secret

47:30

of success, that they think 10 moves

47:32

ahead, whereas a weaker player would only think

47:34

eight moves ahead. And now, well, there's some

47:36

truth in that. Really good chess players can

47:38

think of any moves ahead, like Beth Harmon

47:41

staring at the ceiling. The truth is really

47:43

more that great chess players think sideways. And

47:45

that just means that they see an option

47:48

that their opponent did not see, sometimes on

47:50

move one, sometimes on move two. And

47:52

it's much more likely that a chess player will see

47:54

one of those options that you didn't see. And that's

47:57

why they beat you, than that they'll like out calculate.

47:59

you 20 moves ahead. I think this is

48:01

really important for life right now too because

48:04

it's just like we were talking about with

48:06

my own life and probably so many other

48:08

listeners' lives as well that you might not

48:10

be able to plan for five years ahead

48:12

right now. And that can

48:14

be scary, but honestly that's kind

48:16

of the way of a chess player. It's unlikely

48:19

that you're going to predict what five moves ahead

48:21

looks like, but you can predict two or three

48:23

better than your opponent. That's going to give you

48:25

a really good chance to win. That's

48:28

great. And I think that that's such a

48:30

great metaphor for how we should be thinking

48:33

in ways that are not necessarily the expected

48:35

way of thinking. I love that idea of

48:37

thinking sideways. Thank you. I'm getting very much

48:39

more into writing and speaking and also kind

48:42

of diving back into poker. And yes, it's

48:45

just a really interesting moment in my life

48:47

where I'm kind of just like exploring kind

48:49

of not like totally new areas, but

48:52

definitely not exactly sure what the next

48:54

few years are going to look like.

48:56

And that's really exciting. Scary, but also

48:58

exciting. It is exciting. One thing

49:00

poker teaches you is to be comfortable

49:02

with uncertainty and excited

49:04

about the prospect of not knowing

49:07

what the future holds. Exactly.

49:10

That's so well put. I love that.

49:12

Yes. I mean, and it's not something

49:14

that we're used to as much in

49:16

like midlife, right? Like I think people

49:18

are often trained that when you're young,

49:20

you have no idea what's going

49:22

to happen next. And that was normal. But in midlife,

49:25

this idea of uncertainty, I think it's very uncomfortable for

49:27

people, especially if they have kids. But you know what?

49:29

It's something that I think a lot of people are

49:31

going to have to deal with more as the world

49:34

is changing so rapidly that we just have

49:36

to get more comfortable with uncertainty no matter

49:38

what your circumstances are. Certainly me, but really

49:40

for a lot of people. I think

49:43

those are wise words. And

49:46

even though we don't know what the future holds, I

49:49

know that I'm very excited to see what it holds next

49:51

for you. And I'm excited to

49:54

read your new book. And I'm excited to

49:56

see where you end up. And I'm so

49:58

grateful that you've come here today. to share

50:00

your wisdom and your experience about decision-making with

50:03

us. I know it's been incredibly useful and

50:05

inspirational to me, and I hope that our

50:07

listeners feel the same way. So thanks so

50:09

much, Jen. Thank you, Maria.

50:11

This is awesome. This

50:14

is a show about the business

50:16

of the business. Risky

50:18

Business is hosted by me, Maria Konikova.

50:21

The show is a co-production of Pushkin

50:23

Industries and iHeart Media. This

50:26

episode was produced by Isabelle Carter.

50:28

Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter

50:30

Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob

50:32

Goldstein. I'm

50:41

Malcolm Gladwell, and I'd like to take a

50:43

moment to talk about an amazing new podcast

50:46

I'm hosting called Medal of Honor. It's

50:48

a moving podcast series celebrating the

50:50

untold stories of those who protect

50:52

our country. And it's brought

50:55

to you by LifeLock, the leader in

50:57

identity.