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is science friday, i am ira flatow if

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two people are given the same set

0:28

of facts, why did they make different

0:31

decisions while later in

0:33

the hour? we're going dig into of the flaws

0:35

in our judgment with double

0:37

prize-winning psychologist, daniel kahneman but

0:40

first a story from the animal kingdom,

0:42

when two animals from

0:44

different species mate, it's thought

0:46

to be a big mistake the

0:49

end of the road for those critters it's

0:51

called inter-species breeding these

0:54

hybrid offspring, often end

0:56

up sterile like zonkeys a

0:58

cross between a zebra and a dime or

1:01

with serious health problems, like

1:03

ligers and tigon's, but

1:05

is breeding between species lines

1:07

always a dead-end, one,

1:09

critter, the plane, spadefoot toad

1:11

shows as maybe not here

1:13

to tell us more strange sex

1:15

lives of those toads is my guest,

1:18

catherine wu staff writer for atlantic

1:21

in new haven connecticut, catherine, welcome

1:23

back to science friday, hello,

1:24

it's good to here very excited

1:27

to talk frog say,

1:28

i guess we all

1:30

her before we get to that sex board has

1:32

had a pet a plane spadefoot toads

1:34

usually reproduce

1:36

so i it is pretty standard

1:38

from he says the mail plane

1:40

spadefoot tell that the will sit in

1:43

some parts and seeing some

1:45

songs these and actually sounds like little

1:47

scenic these sort of being illegal

1:56

the females know the go her and they think wow

1:59

you sound

1:59

the super sexy or they couple

2:02

up the females lay eggs and

2:04

for lot they hatch into tadpoles

2:06

that then grew up in few more planes

2:09

paid for toads

2:10

the that basic eighth grade stuff

2:13

right

2:13

held a huge asterisk that i have to

2:15

put on this process that i just described

2:17

is that what happens when the ponds

2:20

there in are pretty deep so these

2:22

told they're actually living in the desert

2:24

in our especially in parts of the southwestern you

2:26

as dot the be part of mexico be

2:28

part of canada it's really dry

2:30

there and sometimes the pond that they're meeting

2:32

and lay their eggs into a dry

2:35

up super fast and that actually

2:37

becomes a problem is

2:39

though it ponds dry up before the tadpole

2:41

become adults they will turn

2:43

into something that is very grotesquely

2:46

called the tadpole brittle ill to see

2:48

this

2:48

growth will run chino peanut

2:50

brittle the self pity when that happens

2:53

yeah when you when you open

2:55

that ten and nope this is not peanut brittle

2:57

it's tadpole brittle that's not

2:59

something any person or any

3:01

mother frog wants to see ah

3:03

to that bad basically it is a race

3:05

between the tadpole developing and the

3:08

pondering up so when things

3:10

get horse thief see new plain

3:12

pizza code will actually find

3:14

a different species to meet with knowing

3:17

that the hybrid offspring can actually develop

3:19

faster and navy beat the drying

3:21

up of those pie

3:22

so did to they start listening for different

3:24

mating call

3:26

yeah not exactly what they do i see what's

3:28

a pretty closely related species

3:30

as some back second speeds that toads one

3:32

word difference in the species name but

3:34

they do sound pretty different instead of making that

3:37

question i described earlier of

3:39

these mail

3:39

baritone for

3:41

all good it sounds kind of marks loki

3:49

not

3:51

only that can also pick out a mexican

3:54

food for told that

3:56

like we give them the best fast

3:58

as developing hybrid strange to they know

4:01

which called to listen for specific

4:02

right amazing so the female

4:04

plane spadefoot for listen out

4:07

for the mexicans spades votes

4:09

how did they choose who to mate with

4:12

though they will actually

4:14

sound a little bit different so

4:16

every call a frog next i guess

4:19

you can sort of picture it like a word

4:21

and some france will call faster

4:23

so it's like they're seeking really really really fast

4:25

or others are speaking

4:28

really slow others will kind

4:30

of up the kittens of the new rules

4:33

if a little hard to describe his you don't have a human

4:35

equivalent for it but fries kinda stiglitz

4:37

all these different characteristics and figure out oh

4:39

it maybe if you're trilling faster or slower

4:42

that tells me something about your underlying genetics

4:45

and how

4:45

their babies are gonna be my apologies

4:47

to the toads for calling them frogs

4:50

actually sell i hate

4:52

to break it's you but code is kind of a social

4:54

construct all toads or

4:56

fraud but not all frogs and toads

4:59

and even though there are technically toads out

5:01

there not all the things that we called

5:03

codes are actually true tone

5:05

so if wow really confusing and kind

5:07

the map of the books you just blew

5:09

my brain on our one has to recommit

5:11

said it says like these females are really wayne

5:14

the consequences when they pick a mate right

5:16

was walk me through that decision making

5:19

i mean think about how high stakes

5:21

the says he knows they pick the wrong

5:23

species and maybe all

5:25

their eggs and their tadpoles end up

5:27

dead before they reach maturity that's a horrible

5:30

outcome for any mother to beads

5:33

or you know they pick on someone

5:35

else the other species but it's someone who's

5:37

hybrid babies are gonna be too slow developing

5:39

kind of the same risky outcome so

5:41

they really really really have to be choosy

5:44

you will see these frogs the female

5:46

frogs swimming around the pond sort of

5:48

assessing how deep as the water

5:50

how risky is gonna be if i add

5:53

on end and then the listen and say

5:56

okay so i'm at kicking this species

5:58

or that species and if it's

5:59

the species what kind of call

6:02

them i'm looking for i mean if you know i don't want

6:04

to over anthropomorphic year but it's incredibly

6:06

complicated like i don't think this

6:09

conflict of a thought when i eighteen a mean i

6:11

don't know about you know but my calculus

6:13

is not that complicated

6:15

their way of saying the come here often

6:17

sort of

6:18

great but also please answer

6:20

this long list

6:21

the probing questions to make sure that we're compatible

6:24

oh that's good to shows could answer what

6:26

what are the trade offs of a female

6:28

plane spadefoot meeting with a mexican

6:31

spadefoot i measure they don't create

6:33

a super told right right

6:34

yeah so i mean a based on everything a full

6:36

view or you could sort of our school why not just

6:38

only mate with the mexican speed

6:41

for told that sounds great but you

6:43

know as you were saying at the top of the shell spare

6:45

often some pretty big trade off when you go

6:47

between species you know you've had some time

6:50

today birds are none of your

6:52

genes are the same at your eggs and sperm

6:54

are going to be perfectly compatible and toby's

6:57

hybrid babies state develop fast

6:59

but their fertility kind of pays the

7:01

price all of the mail hybrids

7:04

are actually sterile they can't have babies

7:06

have their own and the female and

7:08

late fee were and then nonhybrid

7:11

females feel very the price to pay but

7:13

you know the logic is better to better

7:15

a little bit less fertile than entirely

7:17

absolutely i can see that on a bumper

7:20

sticker oh ,

7:22

thought that bumper sticker i was no

7:24

i imagine with climate change happen is

7:26

we're going to be seeing more and seeing pines

7:29

drying up what's gonna happen to the

7:31

breeding here it's such an interesting question

7:33

and you know my

7:34

rule especially of the past two and

7:36

a half years is never predict the future

7:38

excesses i won't do that here

7:40

but it's such an interesting question rights

7:43

what is going to happen to

7:45

these frogs when things get dry

7:48

hybrid babies are the way to go

7:50

are we going to see an increase in the behavior

7:52

wouldn't that mean for the species because

7:55

even though the hybrid males are sterile the

7:57

hybrid females are it and businesses

7:59

and actually see me hybrid female meeting

8:02

back into both parent populations for

8:04

you see that kind of melting

8:06

pot and teams and so

8:08

it's it's kind of cool either you can actually see that

8:11

the hybrids are really nice

8:13

funny blend of both parents like it'll

8:15

have you know that the point each and of

8:17

mom and that's a bumpy head

8:19

of god and the even they're called

8:21

kind of sound intermediate between the two

8:23

like at trily quack

8:26

i'm kind of weird sounding but

8:28

then you know when the hybrid go back and

8:30

beat with a pure bred total

8:33

flung species or another you can sort

8:35

of fi everything just blending together

8:37

again it's really

8:38

needing and

8:39

until it kind of interesting to think about like

8:41

how is this melding of

8:43

different genetic material go into shape that

8:46

evolution going forward in a world that's getting

8:48

drier and hotter in just a lot more difficult

8:51

for animals

8:52

navigate

8:53

pretty cool strategy you you know when when times

8:55

get tough make hybrid babies i

8:57

guess i know you're quoted a biologist

9:00

who said inter species

9:02

breeding his quote the grocer's

9:04

plunder in sexual preference but

9:07

these tell it's a really impressive i mean our scientists

9:09

rethinking what they know about into

9:11

species breeding

9:13

currently your and she know what's interesting is

9:15

dead the grosses to blunder idea

9:18

was really the prevailing narrative for

9:20

so long and it's definitely

9:22

not entirely wrong i mean think

9:24

of that the mules that everyone

9:26

has heard about the example if you gave at the top of

9:28

the shelves even because that these

9:30

high

9:30

the from are paying with their fertility

9:33

there are costs to meeting

9:35

outside of your species and it is a kind

9:37

of weird thing for a lot of animals to deal

9:40

and he certainly is their environments

9:42

for an extreme i don't think be female from

9:44

the be feeling it terribly often but

9:47

when push comes to shove when the world is changing

9:50

and they get very clearly is only that

9:52

animals go there are other animals

9:54

that have been shown doing this you you know fish

9:56

and rabbits are that are acquiring

9:59

in a gene

9:59

the handle pollution from other species

10:02

you're changing their a coat colors who

10:04

they can better blended with landscape

10:06

that are complex know he now that climate

10:08

change is happening this may be a really

10:10

important way for animals to continue

10:13

just trying to keep up with how fast

10:15

the world around them is

10:16

changing you have any idea how fast that's

10:18

happening what percentage of the species

10:20

might be doing this

10:22

so this isn't an area pretty active

10:24

research it's thought that at least ten

10:26

percent of animal species regularly

10:28

you know ah make hybrid babies

10:30

with another animal species and

10:33

honestly the number is probably a lot bigger

10:35

now that we have this big synetic

10:37

revolution where we can go inside the genome

10:39

of different animals and say well

10:41

or that can he doesn't belong here you must have

10:43

gotten back from this other species that

10:46

you know you hybridized with a player back

10:48

and your ancestry i think that number is gonna

10:50

go up in in the coming year

10:53

the story makes me think about into species

10:55

breeding in a different way what

10:57

was your big take away in researching

11:00

and reporting the stairs

11:02

one thing that is really worth thinking

11:04

about is you know we as

11:06

human beings have really put

11:09

the boxes around the other

11:11

animals and plants and other life forms

11:14

in our environment either species really is kind

11:16

of as a human construction

11:18

and it is useful to think about but

11:21

in have one of the questions that

11:23

is actually really telling to

11:25

answer is what

11:26

you appreciate beauty

11:28

fine it by what it can and can't meet

11:30

with you define it by what

11:32

it's genome looks like and how different

11:34

at it from something else is do you define

11:37

it by you know where it limits

11:39

and the fact that it can't interact with

11:41

other things very often as a really complicated

11:44

answer and maybe you plop an animal

11:46

into an environment where it can meet

11:48

with another animal and they produce functional hybrid

11:51

the the same species are they just

11:53

two different species that can produce

11:56

functional hybrid religious shows

11:58

us the limitations of how we sometimes

11:59

over simplify the world around us

12:02

absolutely any even when

12:04

humans have the scenes

12:06

of other species energy wasn't

12:08

it is how to survive today

12:10

the neanderthal and me thank you very

12:12

much catherine for that inter species

12:15

chat and now i will never look at a tadpole

12:17

the same way again yeah ah hopefully

12:19

you only have non brutalized

12:21

tadpoles in your future

12:23

harper and row staff writer at the atlantic

12:25

based in new haven connecticut thank you

12:27

for joining us today thanks so much for having

12:30

when we come back a recent decision from

12:32

congress that could revitalize

12:34

the us tech industry the

12:37

water level of utah's great salt

12:39

lake has dropped to a record low

12:41

that means for the lakes ecosystem and

12:44

the help of the surrounding communities

12:46

stay with us

12:48

support for this program also comes from the winston

12:50

foundation for eight years there's

12:52

been an unsolved murder of a prominent

12:55

couple in new jersey when things start

12:57

to not go well with the

12:58

then again we met with

13:00

the prosecutor's office on tuesday

13:03

or that's one thing started to go off some

13:07

join me on a journey into the crazy

13:09

world of cards and crime and cost

13:12

now you can listen to the entire a part

13:14

series dead as a new jersey political

13:16

murder mystery i'm debbie on my sister

13:18

it is available wherever you get podcast

13:22

besides friday hi my reply that the

13:25

modern computer chip the integrated

13:27

circuit was invented by robert

13:29

noyce way back in nineteen

13:31

fifty nine it was an american invention

13:34

designed and built into good old usa

13:37

the now more than half a century later those

13:40

to be complex computer chips in

13:42

your cellphone your laptop your car

13:45

and even smart weapons are made

13:47

abroad in fact only eleven

13:49

percent of the world's computer chips are made in

13:51

america so if any computer

13:53

chips wait in line with the rest of

13:55

the world recognizing the economic

13:57

effects of relying on tips from abroad

14:00

the had the potential threat to

14:02

national security the senate

14:04

voted this week in favor of the

14:06

chipsets that's a bill that would

14:08

provide more than fifty billion dollars

14:10

to encourage companies even foreign

14:13

companies to build semiconductor

14:15

factories here and the us instead

14:17

of overseas

14:19

the legislation is slated to land

14:21

on president biden desk to sign

14:23

next week's it is a big deal

14:25

and attack world and our next guest

14:27

will tell us why

14:29

the me now is a suit still

14:31

alamo professor of electrical

14:33

engineering at mit he's

14:35

based in lincoln massachusetts welcome

14:37

to science friday

14:38

hello

14:39

why do we really

14:40

in other countries to build our chips

14:43

most of the ship fox

14:45

today are in other countries we have

14:47

no choice this is the any fact the most

14:50

advanced thoughts with the most advanced technologies

14:53

are all overseas we have no choice

14:55

if we want to deploy the most of

14:57

us products we have to your tips are made overseas

15:00

so even our military realize the computer

15:02

chips that we don't make is

15:04

it is considered a national security issue

15:08

that this is a be concerned

15:10

which is the reason we need to regain

15:13

control of the leading edge

15:15

of semiconductor manufacturing so that the most

15:17

sensitive tips can definitely be made

15:19

into us let's walk through the chips

15:21

at how would that act solve this problem

15:24

well a big chunk of the act thirty

15:26

nine billion dollars out of his fifty

15:28

two billion dollars is really to

15:30

provide incentives provide incentives semiconductor

15:33

manufacturing essentially this is

15:35

trying to level the playing field

15:37

with what other countries have a rejoin title

15:40

one of korea

15:42

they are heavily are help

15:44

in subsidizing companies to set up shop

15:46

in other countries are the us needs

15:49

to do that he we want to do your logs faster the

15:51

u s and so that big chunk of

15:53

the act will go to

15:55

that but that he said another twelve billion

15:57

that he's about thinking about

16:00

technologies to not only regain

16:02

leadership or a nail clipper

16:04

also to be able to sustain that leadership

16:06

with future technologies what is a fab

16:09

that you're talking about here are five

16:11

is a term that we used to

16:13

refer to as semiconductor manufacturing

16:16

plant this is where the chips are made

16:18

there are companies that were waiting for this

16:20

chips acts to basically pour

16:23

concrete our new projects do we think this

16:25

will move forward now

16:26

we very much hope so is really critical

16:29

you know all other significant countries the european union's

16:31

high not a long career they're offering

16:34

similarly very generous incentives

16:36

for american companies and other companies

16:38

to set up their flaps in the territory

16:41

so if we don't move on with this

16:43

quickly the other countries will move

16:45

on and or american a fox

16:47

we set up the new fossil proceed without any question

16:50

the we need to build factories here if

16:52

we wanna stay in the tech world or

16:54

to try to regain leadership in the tech world

16:57

most definitely so the research that is a

16:59

deep connection between leading

17:01

edge manufacturing and innovation and

17:03

the connection isn't that the leading

17:06

edge technology the most advanced technology

17:08

is the

17:10

most profitable also so

17:13

essentially a winner takes all

17:15

is is how this industry works wherever

17:18

gets the most advanced technology

17:20

first in the marketplace is

17:22

going to report the greatest profits

17:25

and as a result is going to be able to

17:27

invest the into innovation

17:29

at a greater level and therefore be able

17:31

to move faster than their competitors sox

17:34

it really is critical to stay as the

17:36

leading edge to maintain the leading edge to

17:38

just continue to play to be of any on the leading

17:41

edge so we can't afford not

17:43

to do that unfortunately we have

17:45

slipped somehow in the last a few

17:47

years on and we need to regain that it a ship on stay

17:50

there

17:50

savvy computer chip makers are

17:53

sort of playing one country off against

17:55

another aren't they in deciding where they would

17:57

build their new factories and

17:59

thing they were waiting to see if

18:01

this chip act would go through if america

18:04

would be one of the competitors yes

18:06

, is sounds perverse for think

18:08

about is this five investments

18:10

they are all nor cell stem billion dollars

18:12

all those that have been announced in the last few months

18:15

and , level of subsidies that

18:17

asian countries in particular are offering

18:20

the easily are into twenty five to

18:22

thirty percent so so either calculate

18:25

forty five to thirty percent austin billion dollars

18:27

you hurt really talking about a lot of money

18:30

so it will is not surprising that companies

18:32

would respond to what kind of sweet

18:34

need to be able to much that if we want

18:36

american companies to clear out and

18:38

was a foreign companies to create the pops in the us

18:41

i think is also interesting that there was a

18:43

rare bipartisan cooperation here

18:45

in congress recognizing

18:47

the weight of this issue

18:50

yeah under many aspects the final episode

18:52

these one is you mentioned earlier the defensive

18:55

things for their social the jobs seidel things

18:57

which is that the semiconductor industry

18:59

are really pays very good salaries

19:02

employs a lot of people as a

19:04

symbol duplicative effect in which each

19:06

job in job semiconductor industry creates

19:09

five point seven jobs as the a semiconductor

19:11

industry association estimates so the

19:13

job implications of citing

19:16

semiconductor foxy to yes he's very significant

19:18

answer you can see how these are to appeal

19:20

across the entire political spectrum

19:23

i know there's a lot at stake here and attack

19:25

and research industries has had

19:27

their eyes on this prefer months as i

19:29

said before

19:30

how did you feel watching it unfold

19:33

this week we're stressed excited

19:35

biting your nails

19:36

yes it has been or fracking on in

19:38

fact i have one ,

19:40

my kids has been live in this dish with me

19:42

with been monitoring what was happening descendants

19:45

as few days days

19:47

a with a lot of nervousness somos minute by minute

19:49

text in each other with the latest of elements of

19:52

the we're happy when we are right now but this is similar

19:54

to be done in a very short time before congress

19:56

goes into pieces are we going to be a nail biter

19:59

to the last name

20:00

yeah friday picks the last day before congress

20:03

goes to recess oh

20:05

we'll we'll see what happens next

20:08

week i have run out of time i want to thank

20:10

you for taking time to be with us today think

20:12

it or much my question is who still alamo is

20:14

a professor of electrical engineering at

20:16

mit based and lincoln massachusetts

20:20

utah's great salt lake

20:22

has been dealing with unprecedented

20:25

drought for years this is

20:27

bad news for the largest salt water lake

20:29

in the western hemisphere because the great

20:31

salt lake is so wells salty

20:34

it's home to a diverse ecosystem and

20:36

many plant and animal species rely

20:39

on it since the great salt lake is

20:41

freaking so fast some

20:43

researchers are warning that toxic

20:45

dust could be tossed up

20:47

as things get drier so

20:49

what does this mean for the creatures that called

20:51

the lake home and communities

20:53

around it joining me now is my guess

20:56

doctor bonnie baxter director of the

20:58

great salt like institutes and

21:00

biology professor at westminster

21:02

college in salt lake city welcome

21:04

back to science friday oh hi nice

21:06

to be here again thank you can you explain

21:09

what makes the great salt lake so special

21:11

for us

21:12

so many things i guess

21:14

is we restart with the ecosystem

21:17

it's the most important body of water

21:19

on the pacific flyway a stopover

21:21

for ten million birds at as

21:23

a lot of birds wow and

21:26

those birds in the lake they

21:28

eat too invertebrates the brine

21:30

shrimp and the brain fly which have

21:32

their larval and pupils sage in the lake

21:35

and they were other invertebrates other invertebrates freshwater

21:38

wetlands that feeds some birds but when

21:40

you think about the lake proper it's

21:42

basically this food chain of ten million

21:44

birds eat q and vertebrates

21:46

and so that's that's pretty cool in

21:49

terms of the biomass said it produces

21:51

and also the local population

21:54

we have about a thousand job on

21:56

great salt lake between the mineral extraction

21:59

companies that make salton

22:02

sea the be lithium and also

22:05

the brine shrimp companies that harvest

22:07

the insisted embryos of the shrimp

22:10

that are sent around the world and agriculture

22:12

so still a cause and economy

22:15

and the think about the lake effect

22:18

on the snow lot of the

22:20

skiing that happens around salt lake city

22:23

in our mountains

22:24

do to

22:25

it make a fact that it's big wet

22:27

seems that the storms blow over

22:29

and make what we call the greatest snow

22:31

on earth so that's an industry that we want

22:34

act as well so they're

22:36

lot of ecosystem services that this

22:38

lake does in addition

22:39

to just being a really cool ecosystem

22:42

survey the the lake has been trying for

22:44

years so is the story here that

22:47

climate change has been speeding the supper

22:49

act exacerbating that's

22:51

going on

22:52

yeah i think i think the way we see it

22:54

is that enough for about

22:56

a century we've been doing diversions

22:59

from this lake and and so this is at

23:01

a terminal lake and if you

23:03

think about like a bathtub

23:06

it's like the puddle at the bottom of the bathtub

23:08

and any water you take upstream doesn't

23:10

make it down to the bottom and so

23:13

if lead build more housing developments

23:15

or we increase , amount

23:17

of agriculture upstream that

23:19

there was activities used water and

23:22

that water never med sit down

23:24

to the bottom of the watershed and

23:26

so this is one of the largest watersheds

23:28

in the country country i

23:30

think that we need to be really cognizant

23:33

of what water is getting to the lake and what

23:35

isn't so there's diversions

23:37

have happened historically for all these reasons

23:40

and that means the lake has

23:42

been shrinking but not just the lake

23:44

in shrinking

23:46

it was aquifers that provide

23:49

rebounds on dry years

23:52

are not working so we were

23:54

in a situation now there we

23:56

set ourselves up for failure so

23:58

now we're approaching the the temperatures

24:00

of climate and the

24:02

change and precipitation that

24:04

were saying which is less snow and more rain

24:07

and in that that leads to more evaporation

24:10

so that water doesn't we get where it needs to

24:12

go though the way i see

24:14

we've been diverting water

24:16

that has caused has crisis

24:19

that allows us to not be

24:21

able to rebound when we have these pressures

24:23

of climate change and room and

24:26

must talk about the potential for

24:28

toxic

24:29

right yes as the lake is trying

24:31

up you have this dust what

24:33

a research is warning that could happen

24:35

oh many of your listeners nato

24:37

the owens lake story that have

24:40

been not so far from great salt lake oh

24:42

, was a body of water

24:45

in california that basically

24:47

was sucked dry by what arthur

24:49

c l a and it

24:51

became and a became bowl

24:53

essentially an producer

24:56

highest measured pm two point five

24:59

particle pollution in or

25:01

the nice

25:02

it's the highest server for

25:04

particle size right

25:05

yes yes and and

25:07

that's the particle size that can be

25:09

really detrimental to humans lung tissue

25:12

so that oh it's catastrophe

25:15

if you know we've done this experiment

25:17

before where we've trained by the water

25:20

and but the does fly around that

25:22

ellen's late catastrophe that lake is

25:24

one tenth the size of

25:26

great salt lake so , talking

25:29

about a lake bad that is ten times

25:31

the size of a when slake and

25:34

we're little frightened about

25:36

just the air pollution that

25:39

will come from this you

25:41

couple that with a history of mining

25:43

in the western united states you

25:46

understand that there are also heavy

25:48

metals in this lake bad because

25:50

a terminal lake doesn't let go of anything

25:53

it holds the memory of everything

25:55

it's encountered so i'm metals

25:57

that have come from

25:59

gold smelting for example makes

26:02

airborne mercury we

26:04

have a a mess awaited mercury problem

26:06

in great salt lake we have selenium

26:08

from mining that is also a byproduct

26:11

and then we have like a national level of arsenic

26:14

so those things are things this lake

26:16

bed is assault player and assault

26:18

the late dries up they will become

26:21

airborne as well so it's not just and

26:23

air pollution dust storm but

26:25

it's a dust storm laden with heavy metals

26:27

and and bad is what are frightened about

26:30

this is science friday from w n y

26:32

c studios

26:33

you're just joining us we're talking to bonnie

26:35

baxter about the drought in

26:37

utah's great salt lake

26:40

there are people planning to do something

26:42

about it and what would you do

26:44

a bad

26:45

well that the big secret is

26:48

the lake needs water sniffing that's really

26:50

how we solve this problem one

26:52

of the ecosystem services lake

26:55

is doing is keeping that dust

26:57

at bay you know making the lake bed

26:59

where your her vents says i'm

27:01

so you just can't wish water

27:03

to be their cards

27:04

you can't in it's really and tangled

27:07

old water laws

27:09

and the last federal water laws

27:12

that were developed during the homestead act

27:15

really actually still govern water from

27:17

the west so like solving

27:19

this problem it's not

27:21

just a science problem it's a

27:23

policy problem minutes of water

27:25

law problem so though we

27:28

all have to really think hard

27:30

and worked together luckily the state

27:32

agencies have really come to the table

27:35

the utah legislators really came

27:37

to the table this past session voted

27:39

on a number of pieces

27:41

of legislation that could result in getting

27:44

more water into the system so we

27:46

scientists are really grateful that there heating

27:48

or warnings locally and

27:50

or stuff going out the federal level as well

27:53

such as though

27:54

so there's a recent bill that was

27:56

introduced and to both the house and senate

27:58

that would do too

27:59

that would give some money into

28:02

several agencies to monitor sailing

28:04

lakes and the west probably coming through

28:06

the us vs i think it's

28:09

and then the other thing it would do is lore

28:11

engineering solutions to

28:14

potentially get more water to the lake which

28:16

you know there hasn't been funding for that so

28:18

that would be pretty amazing some people

28:21

to mistake that they're going to

28:23

get something done in time to prevent

28:25

this toxic dust from hurting people

28:28

well that's as awesome as

28:30

a miss

28:31

are you have i

28:34

saw that i'm not

28:36

a power

28:37

i i'm an

28:39

optimistic person and lately

28:41

an extremely pessimistic because

28:44

it's

28:44

others mentioned i was i was

28:47

there last week doing some fields work

28:49

with students and am

28:51

i was added ala violence and antelope

28:53

violence is antelope amazing place

28:56

in itself an island which has

28:59

an original heard of bison

29:01

that were brought from the last five hundred

29:03

by some that last in the west in the eighteen

29:05

hundreds and placed on this island and airs

29:08

, and cody and it's

29:11

just an amazing place soda

29:13

sampling out there and first of all

29:16

it isn't an island anymore it's anymore peninsula

29:18

because the lake has shrunk so much i'm

29:21

studying microbial life the stromatolites

29:24

for example or type of microbial

29:26

eight they're all dry they're

29:28

out of the water and ,

29:30

is shocking and then the ones that

29:32

are still in the water the water is getting too

29:35

salty for them so

29:37

i was just there the ago and and

29:39

i see something incredibly different

29:42

every time time so

29:44

it's it's hard to be optimistic

29:47

when i'm seeing these changes

29:50

before my eyes and so it's obvious

29:52

it's obvious and real time and that's

29:55

that makes it hard to be optimistic

29:58

but i'm sorry

29:59

they're about that yeah it is

30:02

refining and i do have a hope just

30:04

because there's so many people like

30:07

, who are talking about the problem and

30:09

i really appreciate the attention to

30:11

the lake and i proceed

30:13

all that folks and government can

30:15

do to help on these policy issues

30:18

so that gives me some optimism just

30:20

the people and

30:21

here about a problem you know damn well

30:23

worth were talking about it and then we

30:25

yeah i hope that something will happen we wish

30:27

you success and good looking

30:29

getting change thanksgiving that water

30:31

in their thank you so much doctor bonnie

30:33

baxter director of the great salt lake

30:35

institute in biology professor

30:38

at westminster college in salt lake

30:40

city utah the have to take a break

30:42

and let me come back if given the same set

30:44

of information why do people make

30:47

different decisions will be talking

30:49

to nobel prize winning psychologist

30:51

daniel kahneman about the flaws

30:53

in our judgment stay with us

30:56

support for this program also comes from the winston

30:58

foundation

31:00

sigh friday i am i replayed

31:03

i've been thinking a lot about what tries

31:05

powerful people to make

31:07

well

31:08

how can you say it bad decisions decisions

31:11

that seem shortsighted or

31:13

ignore key facts the importance

31:16

of thoughtful decision making has

31:18

come into stark relief during the pandemic

31:21

and the events leading up to the january

31:23

sixth insurrection i was drawn

31:25

to the research of nobel prize winning psychologist

31:27

daniel condiments who has made has career

31:30

about studying decision making

31:32

i was hoping he would help me better understand

31:35

just what's going on his most recent

31:37

book which he cooperates with olivier

31:40

see bony and cass sunstein is

31:42

now available in paperback has called

31:44

noyce a flaw in human judgment

31:47

daniel kahneman welcome to science friday my

31:49

pleasure nice to have you are

31:52

let's begin talking about says the

31:54

title of your book is called noise

31:56

what is noise and how is it different

31:59

some bias

32:00

well the starting point really

32:02

is that judgment is a form

32:04

of measurements we call it of

32:07

measurements were the instruments is

32:09

the human mind and so the theory

32:11

and the concepts of measurement a relative

32:15

why is in the theory of measurement

32:17

is simply an average ever that is

32:19

not zero that's minds

32:22

no is in the theory of measurement

32:24

is simply variability so

32:26

that you know you could have you could

32:28

measure line the measure

32:31

it repeatedly you're not going to get

32:33

if your rulers find enough you're

32:35

not going to get the save measurement twice in

32:38

a row there's going to be variability

32:40

that theory ability is noise and

32:43

you can see that noise is a problem for

32:45

accuracy because the soon there

32:48

is no bias that is that the average

32:50

of your measurements is precisely equal

32:53

to the length of the line it's still obviously

32:55

you're making mistakes if your

32:58

judgments or your measurements are scattered

33:01

around the value so that's

33:04

that's noise and that's why

33:06

the why do people make those mistakes

33:09

why do we have people measuring things and

33:11

then coming up with different results

33:13

well there are several

33:15

reasons one reason

33:17

is that really people are inherently

33:20

noisy the that you know

33:22

when you when you sign your name twice

33:25

in early doesn't look exactly the same

33:27

we can not in fact exactly

33:29

repeat ourselves we're in

33:31

a series of states and those

33:34

states have an effect of the judgments

33:36

the make we call that occasion noise

33:38

so you know a judge passing

33:41

sentences is not the same in the morning

33:43

of the have to do the ,

33:45

not the same with in a good mood and

33:47

in a bad movie then , other

33:50

kinds of noise to

33:52

understand the next form of noise the

33:54

easiest as well stay with the judge

33:58

so sometimes are most of than

34:00

others some doctors are

34:02

lenient we call that level

34:04

police because the level of the a judge

34:06

with the result the visual bias

34:08

but then the most interesting source

34:11

of noise the judges

34:13

do not see the world in

34:15

the same way that is

34:18

if they have to break sentence

34:21

or crimes they would not rank

34:23

them alive them

34:25

to address how are really

34:27

most severe with young defenders

34:29

than with all defendants for other chapters

34:32

is the opposite dot differences

34:34

with record pattern noise they

34:37

are really interesting and they are

34:39

in quit a few situations they

34:41

are the main source of noise that

34:44

because that's where biases

34:46

may influence the noise because

34:48

people have different biases that makes it noisy

34:51

that's exactly is louis is

34:53

reproduced by the thought there's

34:55

certainly better than know is that people have

34:58

the

34:59

it

35:01

you know a lot of us have experienced that

35:03

when we go to doctors and we we

35:05

get a second or third opinion and

35:07

they the doctors are looking at us conducting

35:09

the same tests

35:11

and yet they come up with a different diagnosis

35:13

or a different prognosis there

35:16

is a lot of noise in medicine

35:18

this medicine this whether the reasons they wrote

35:20

that book is that we find a

35:22

lot of noise and very important systems

35:25

in society so in other

35:27

easy cases it's easy to

35:29

diagnose a common cold but the moment

35:31

that things get more challenge differences

35:34

issues like this and judgments and

35:37

on very difficult cases of course

35:39

there is a lot of noise the

35:41

know medicine is a big problem

35:44

speaking about that when thinking

35:46

about judgments that have a wide range of

35:48

decisions i can't help but think

35:50

about the kobe pandemics

35:52

how can the concept of noise

35:54

help us better understand how differently

35:57

world leaders decide to deal with

35:59

the via

35:59

well you know it's one of

36:02

the best examples of noise as we know

36:04

that as leaders at all

36:07

levels you know from municipalities

36:09

to readers of countries and

36:11

were faced with the problems with quite

36:13

similar and they've made they've

36:16

made variety of different choices

36:18

that's an example of noise and

36:21

each of them did thinking

36:23

that they were doing the right thing but obviously

36:26

they could all be doing the right thing is

36:28

they were doing different things in the

36:30

same situation

36:32

so how my leaders then the

36:34

able to make better decisions and reduce

36:37

noise around the very complicated

36:39

decisions that need to be made

36:41

about covert will

36:43

you know we have

36:45

we have is a piece of

36:47

advice that is likely

36:49

to be taken up very soon but our advice

36:52

is that the case of kobe

36:55

it's a matter of

36:56

designing how you're going to make the

36:58

decision doing it making

37:00

the decision in a deceptive way

37:03

when you design the process by which

37:05

you will reach conclusions then

37:08

you're going to have less noise people are

37:10

more likely to read the same conclusions

37:13

is they all follow a sensible process

37:16

to get to the decision there

37:18

it is one source of noise that

37:20

is not going to be controlled by this

37:23

is differences

37:25

in values if people

37:27

want different things then they will reach

37:29

different judgments but hes

37:32

of yellow your face with an objective problem

37:34

you're trying to control the

37:36

number of hospitalizations that's

37:39

a problem with the value is pretty

37:41

obvious with a systematic process

37:43

of decision making people ought

37:46

to and we think would

37:48

the less noisy than they will

37:51

the talking about making these decisions

37:53

what about using artificial intelligence

37:56

or machine learning there was a study

37:58

that came out last showing that

38:00

the i was better than a dermatologist

38:03

in detecting melanoma ah

38:05

to say i reduce noise in decision making

38:08

it is better than reducing noise

38:12

any a good any systematic

38:14

rule that takes inputs

38:16

and combines them combines them specified

38:19

way will have once thou

38:21

shall prophesy it will be noise

38:23

free your present an algorithm

38:25

with the same problem twice you're

38:27

going to get the same as

38:29

in general

38:30

the algorithm don't know is free and

38:33

it turns out this is one of them major

38:35

advantages of the humans that

38:38

is when you compare the performance

38:40

of people to the performance of

38:42

algorithms and rules in many

38:44

situations the algorithm pools are

38:46

already superior to people at

38:48

people and the main reason for

38:51

the lack of accuracy of people compared to

38:53

algorithm is noise people are noisy

38:56

algorithm

38:58

you'll get push back from doctors are other

39:00

people who say you know every every patient

39:03

is different i have to treat every patient

39:05

differently and that takes a human interaction

39:08

how do you answer that

39:10

well

39:11

the into that by looking at data

39:13

and by comparing mistakes

39:16

the number of mistakes are made and

39:19

it it true that

39:21

humans have that tendency

39:24

of viewing each cases unique it's

39:26

also true

39:28

that

39:29

if you take just a few objective

39:32

this is in the situation and you

39:34

combine them appropriately in

39:36

many situations if

39:39

combination of schools is going

39:41

to do better than a human touch the

39:43

the human judge has access to a lot of

39:45

information that has many powerful

39:48

intuitions

39:50

you know i hear that same kind of argument about

39:52

how ai is is better than people

39:55

when i talked to a i

39:57

people who are designing self

39:59

driving

39:59

cars

40:01

they say you know we get a lot of pushback

40:03

that the the ai is not smarter but

40:05

if you look at the data you'll see

40:07

that a computer will drive a car

40:10

better than a person meaning that they'll be fewer

40:12

accidents

40:13

the all of us are biased against algorithms

40:16

the reason we are is

40:18

that

40:19

when

40:20

the driving com causes an accident

40:24

we look at that accident and we say oh

40:26

i would then suddenly to the human driver

40:28

with just not have made that mistake

40:31

but of course no one asked the self driving

40:33

car about the mistakes that humans and

40:36

the same is true if all contexts

40:39

where you measure the performance the

40:42

to against performance about weren't

40:44

the question is overall and use

40:47

the way that people look

40:50

at it the space the

40:53

official intelligence makes look stupid

40:55

to us the mistakes we

40:57

wouldn't make and effectively

41:00

make more mistakes overall than

41:02

the ai that's not something their

41:04

response we respond

41:06

one of the ideas that stuck out to

41:09

me in the book was a bad overconfident

41:11

leaders who

41:14

who heavily trust their own intuition

41:16

and instead of weighing evidence or are

41:18

too confident into decision

41:21

that's more due to chance than their own

41:23

judgment what what's going on here

41:26

what's going on is that most of

41:28

us overconfidence most of the then

41:32

and in in a way it's a very good thing they

41:35

overconfident with i mean is

41:38

that we look at the world and we see

41:40

the world in a particular way

41:42

then we feel

41:44

then some validity we feel

41:46

that the reason we see the world

41:49

as we do is because that's the

41:51

way it is what we cannot imagine

41:53

the other people looking at exactly

41:56

the same situation see differently

41:59

i

41:59

the truth and i respect

42:02

your judgment i expected you

42:04

see exactly the same thing that

42:07

age

42:08

that's one aspect of it overconfidence

42:11

is almost built in but overconfidence

42:13

an intuition

42:15

the

42:16

anyway

42:17

the peculiar pernicious when

42:20

it's not just destroyed out there are cases

42:23

where intuitive expertise

42:25

exists or just players can

42:27

look at address situation and

42:29

every move that are close to them is going

42:31

to be a strong one but people

42:33

feel they have intuitions whoop

42:36

there is no way

42:39

that they could have correct valid intuitions

42:41

for example anybody who makes

42:44

predictions about what will happen in the

42:46

stock market to individual

42:48

stocks in particular is just

42:50

deluding yourself and

42:52

it's not possible the new

42:54

people feel that it is possible they

42:57

have intuitions and they trust the

42:59

to be

43:01

i'm i replied oh this is sides friday

43:03

from w n y c studios if

43:05

you're just joining us same speaking with nobel

43:08

prize winner daniel condiments about

43:10

some of the flaws in human judgment

43:12

one of the things i've been

43:14

banning around a lot lately is what biases

43:17

lead people

43:18

the believe something that is patently

43:20

false specifically

43:23

how so many people bought into

43:25

their big lie donald

43:28

trump really won the election and

43:30

then the ensuing insurrection of january

43:32

six what makes people

43:35

believe in believe in disputable

43:37

lie so fully

43:39

well

43:40

we have the wrong idea but we're bullies

43:43

come from a wrong and those

43:45

of that we think we believe

43:48

it when it believe i believe we

43:50

have evidence because

43:52

we have reasons for believing when you

43:54

ask people why do believe that

43:57

they're not the to stay down

43:59

there

43:59

the to give you reasons

44:01

they're convince explain the

44:04

belief truly

44:06

the correct way to think about this

44:08

is to reduce the believe believe

44:11

in the reasons because they believe that

44:13

reclusive the conclusion consoles

44:16

and the belief in the conclusion in

44:18

many cases largely

44:20

determined by social factors you

44:23

believe what people that you love and trust

44:25

the lead and and

44:27

and then you find reasons for it and

44:30

they tell you reasons for believing

44:32

that and will accept the reasons but

44:35

it's it's your social phenomenon

44:38

it's not an error of recently and

44:41

that's by the way is true for your

44:43

beliefs and my buddies your

44:46

beliefs of my beliefs reflect

44:48

how we've been socialized it reflects

44:50

the company we keep it

44:52

, our beliefs in certain

44:54

ways are preaching could prove it's like

44:56

a police it's way as the scientific method

44:59

other people

45:00

this

45:02

if you believe people they've been socialized

45:04

differently and because

45:06

they have different beliefs they accept

45:08

different kinds of evidence of the evidence

45:11

that we think is overwhelming this

45:13

doesn't convince them have any

45:15

arthur cases in which variability

45:18

in judgment is actually a good thing

45:21

many cases that

45:23

is we define always

45:26

that simple we define noises

45:28

and wanted variability so

45:31

that when you have underwriters

45:33

in his in the shrimps company looking

45:36

at the same risk you would want them

45:38

to see to reach proximity

45:41

who exactly the same conclusions

45:43

but i want variability in the judgments

45:45

of my film critics i want variability

45:49

in the judgmental and opinions

45:51

of people who are creating reinventing

45:53

new things so the

45:55

abilities often very desirable

45:58

but in some context area

45:59

the noxious one last

46:02

question i've been following the a career

46:04

for career long time and i've always wondered what

46:06

got you

46:07

then you're a long time former psychologists

46:10

partner the late almost verse key

46:13

so interested in human biases

46:15

and and studying one will wait a tube

46:18

you fellas decide this was something you wanted to study

46:21

will

46:22

we it was really ironic research

46:25

we found that we will

46:27

though he didn't steaks it was all

46:30

about statistical thinking when we start

46:32

and and we noticed

46:34

that we have drowned intuitions

46:36

about many statistical problems we

46:38

knew the solutions and yet the wrong

46:41

intuitions remain attractive

46:44

then you put a finger on why we have so many

46:46

flaws in our intuitive judgment

46:49

though it's not that you could you know

46:52

we could perform surgery and

46:54

excise all the sources of

46:56

biases from human cognition if

46:58

you removed all the sources of biases

47:01

you would remove a great deal of with

47:03

makes goodness inaccurate in most situations

47:06

so we have bills to

47:09

reach conclusions not necessarily

47:12

in a logical way the

47:16

a heuristic way and

47:19

the wrist the

47:21

ways of thinking always

47:23

necessarily lead to some the state

47:26

although on average they

47:28

could lead to correct

47:29

the

47:31

faster

47:32

the reason would do it's not

47:35

that we're studying incorrect

47:37

mechanisms the make him his

47:40

the very useful they sometimes

47:42

that make a the switches usually

47:44

useful

47:45

the will repeat with the systematic arabs

47:48

well thank you very much stuck to kind of in protecting

47:51

have to be with us today the pleasure

47:53

talking with you can your kind of men nobel

47:55

prize winner professor emeritus at

47:57

princeton university is the coauthor

47:59

of book noise a flaw in human

48:02

judgment and if you want to hear more

48:04

from daniel kind of men and how he approaches

48:06

his work go to science friday

48:08

dot com slash noise to watch

48:10

your profile of him from our desktop

48:13

diary video series back

48:15

and twenty thirty

48:16

they commit any part of this program or you'd like

48:19

to hear it again subscribe to a podcast

48:21

or rescue smart speaker to play science

48:24

friday

48:25

my reply don't have a great weekend

48:27

this weekend a new yorker radio our i'll talk with

48:30

michelle do hungry since the democratic

48:32

governor of new mexico she's

48:34

declared her state for reproductive safe

48:36

haven and that could very well lead to conflict

48:38

with her neighbors

48:39

in another state can

48:41

try to sue a provider sets license

48:44

shield is the most disgusting and

48:46

despicable aspects of this particular

48:48

the decision gov michelle two hundred

48:51

sure on the new yorker radio our from w

48:53

n y c studios this is reader