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help keep you connected and moving together

1:26

as one. Hey,

1:37

everybody. We got a great one today, you

1:40

know, for a change, but

1:42

also a depressing one, because

1:44

Katherine Ranpell, the Washington Post

1:47

columnist who writes about economics,

1:49

will analyze what Donald Trump's plans

1:51

for a second term would mean

1:54

for average Americans. Here's a

1:56

few hints. Enormous

1:58

tariffs, 10%. 10%

2:00

across the board on products from China. Now, let's

2:03

make something clear, as Catherine makes

2:05

clear. 10% tariffs

2:07

on Chinese goods makes Chinese

2:10

goods more expensive. 10%

2:12

more expensive. We pay the

2:15

tariffs. The Chinese don't pay the

2:17

tariffs. We do. Whoever

2:19

importing it pays the tariffs. Trump

2:22

even talked about 100% tariffs on

2:24

Chinese cars coming through Mexico.

2:27

Okay, no American will buy a

2:30

Chinese car then. But

2:32

China will put a huge tariff

2:34

on our cars. This means Chinese

2:36

won't buy our cars. Okay,

2:39

fine. Here's the craziest thing Trump

2:41

wants to do. Deport

2:45

12 or 14, he

2:47

changes the numbers, undocumented immigrants.

2:50

12 or 14 million

2:52

undocumented immigrants deported. During

2:55

the Catherine, that will have a devastating effect

2:57

on our economy. As our workforce

3:00

has been aging, we need these

3:02

immigrants, documented or undocumented, to do

3:05

the jobs that aging American workers can

3:07

no longer do. Other

3:10

bad news, Trump wants to

3:12

renew his tax cut from 2017. The

3:16

one that drove up the deficit, another $1.9

3:18

trillion, mainly from tax cuts going to

3:23

the highest income earners and

3:25

corporate execs selling their stock

3:27

options. This was

3:29

always a very unpopular tax

3:32

cut because it barely helped

3:34

low-income folks and benefits disproportionately

3:36

wealthy Americans. Again, exploding

3:38

the deficit by $1.9 trillion. So

3:43

not enough workers, big tax

3:45

cuts for those at the top, exploding

3:48

deficits, Americans paying

3:50

more for goods. Here's

3:52

another thing, Americans don't really

3:54

understand the economy. Half of all

3:56

Americans believe we are currently

3:58

in a recession. We added over 200,000

4:01

jobs last month. We,

4:04

we have had job growth

4:07

every month during the Biden

4:09

administration. Well, look,

4:11

there's some good news here. The good news

4:13

is that our economy is doing much better

4:16

than people give it credit for. The

4:19

bad news is that people don't

4:21

believe it. I, one

4:24

last thing. We recorded this just before

4:26

the new employment numbers came out. The

4:28

new employment number is 4%, which

4:31

is still very good, but it's the

4:33

first time at 4% for over two

4:36

years. Well,

4:38

Catherine Rampell is our guest today and

4:40

you're going to get a lesson in

4:42

economics and political opinion. It's

4:44

a great one, but a

4:46

little depressing. You

4:48

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$10 per order. Immigrants

6:05

are good for the economy,

6:07

right? Yes, we've discussed that

6:09

before and Trump says at

6:12

what he'll do his the

6:14

Port fourteen million isn't what

6:16

is number is. I

6:18

feel like every time he talks about the number

6:21

goes up like every time you talked about building

6:23

a wall the walk at. A slut

6:25

higher? It's it's similar. It's like he

6:27

wants to deport all of the immigrants,

6:29

whether those who are documented are undocumented.

6:32

Besides, like a

6:34

humanitarian tragedy. For hims

6:36

in divorce if hello there is that

6:38

there is that. Particularly.

6:42

If if this plan is executed

6:44

in the way that Trump has

6:46

described which. Means. using.

6:49

The military. To detain

6:51

immigrants and. In concentration

6:53

camps, none of that stuff is good,

6:55

just getting that out of the way.

6:58

But. In terms of outcomes for

7:00

the economy ah, which is what

7:02

voters apparently care about, not the

7:05

humanitarian and moral south. It

7:07

would also be terrible. There's. Been.

7:10

Quite. A bit of research

7:12

to draw on about what

7:15

happens if you suddenly reduce

7:17

the number of workers for

7:19

example, who are available. And

7:22

you're likely to have it. You

7:24

know people complain about worker shortages

7:26

now, right? You're likely to have

7:28

huge worker shortages. probably major supply

7:31

chain issues. Including in

7:33

critical factors like agriculture

7:35

were immigrants are overrepresented.

7:38

That's likely to lead to price

7:40

increases. Among other things. I

7:43

mean, and we've seen sort of

7:45

the reverse version of this, right?

7:47

We've seen the benefits recently of

7:49

having. An. Influx of immigrants in

7:51

for some reason like eve, this is

7:53

not convenient for either a political party

7:55

to talk about. Fight. For example,

7:58

if the Congressional Budget. office

8:00

just revised upward its

8:03

forecasts for economic growth because

8:06

immigration has been higher than

8:08

they had previously assumed it

8:10

would be, which means immigrants are

8:12

more likely to be working age. So there are more workers

8:15

that help fill jobs that people

8:17

are... Manpower is important,

8:19

right? Especially when the native foreign

8:22

population is disproportionately aging

8:25

and retiring. So you need more

8:27

workers. So you need someone who

8:30

might want to learn how to fix

8:32

a diesel engine when

8:34

people who fix diesel engines are...

8:36

Or, yeah, take care

8:38

of the elderly. You know, when

8:40

the diesel engine mechanic or whatever

8:43

retires and needs some home healthcare,

8:47

it is helpful to have working

8:49

age immigrants who are willing to

8:51

take those jobs and who want

8:53

to take those jobs. Whenever I

8:55

talk about this, the sort of

8:57

anti-immigrant right, and to some extent

8:59

the anti-immigrant populist left says, oh,

9:02

you just want to import a class

9:04

of slave laborers. I'm not suggesting

9:06

that at all. These are people who want

9:08

to come to the United States and contribute

9:10

their talents and energies and support their families

9:13

because there are better opportunities here. And I

9:15

think we should have, obviously, minimum

9:18

labor standards and wages and all

9:21

of that good stuff. I'm not

9:23

suggesting we should import a class

9:25

of people to be our servants.

9:27

These are people who want economic

9:30

opportunity. And

9:32

they get them and then they have children who get

9:35

educated and end up

9:37

being doctors and lawyers

9:39

and politicians and businessmen.

9:43

Yeah, there was actually an interesting study

9:46

from the... The

9:48

National Academies puts out these big

9:50

consensus reports every few years about

9:52

some major issue like how do

9:54

you solve child poverty or whatever,

9:56

and it's usually a group... of

10:01

experts across the political spectrum. Anyway, they put

10:03

out one of these things a few years

10:05

ago about the economic

10:07

and fiscal impact of immigrants.

10:10

And they found that

10:12

the children of immigrants,

10:15

so I guess you'd call that

10:17

first-generation Americans or second-generation Americans, depending on your

10:20

terminology, they are among

10:22

the most productive workers in

10:25

the country, as

10:27

measured by like how much they pay in

10:29

taxes relative to how much they receive in

10:31

benefits, for example, and

10:34

all sorts of other metrics

10:36

suggesting that they are like really

10:38

economically valuable people, again, setting aside

10:41

all of the rest of their

10:43

humanity, which matters too. I

10:45

just see them as cogs in the

10:47

economy. Yeah, well- And what's good for

10:50

the economy is good for me. Yeah,

10:53

I wish Trump voters. Felt

10:55

that way. Felt that way. If you're

10:58

gonna dehumanize people- That's

11:00

a good way to do it. Yes, at

11:02

least correctly assess their value

11:04

economically. And their

11:06

parents pay taxes all

11:09

throughout their careers and

11:11

very often don't get social security, is

11:14

that correct? So if

11:16

someone is undocumented, they generally cannot

11:18

receive any benefits. They pay into

11:20

the system, but they pay social

11:22

security taxes, payroll taxes and Medicare

11:24

taxes, but they cannot take them

11:27

out. They can't receive food stamps.

11:29

They can't receive Medicaid, et cetera, et cetera. That's for

11:31

the undocumented population. I think that there is like a

11:33

lot of confusion about all these

11:35

people are coming into the country illegally

11:37

and then they're stealing all of our

11:40

benefits. No, they cannot access

11:42

those benefits. People who are

11:44

here legally can access some

11:47

benefits, but generally only

11:49

after they've been here for a while. Like

11:51

if they have a green card, for example,

11:54

which takes a while for most people. Again,

11:56

that report I talked about from the National

11:58

Academies, they looked at... that how

12:01

much immigrants, including those who are

12:03

here legally, pay into the federal

12:05

government versus how much they take

12:07

out and they pay much more in.

12:10

Just doesn't make sense if we deport 14

12:13

million that this will do

12:16

a number on our economy. Yeah, I

12:18

mean, it will. It

12:20

will be very painful. Again,

12:23

this is not like the only bad economic

12:25

idea that Trump has proposed that would prep

12:27

up, I know you're really surprised, that

12:30

would probably worsen

12:32

inflation and hurt

12:35

economic growth and hurt Americans. Well, how

12:37

about putting tariffs on everything?

12:40

Yeah, the global tariffs,

12:44

which would make things much more expensive. Now,

12:47

Trump has this thing where he keeps

12:49

saying that the Chinese

12:52

paid so many hundreds of billions

12:54

of dollars in tariffs. And

12:58

if that comes up in a debate, I want

13:00

Biden to explain tariffs.

13:03

But could you do it to our... Sure.

13:07

Biden's in a little bit of a tricky... Because

13:09

he's putting on tariffs on some

13:12

stuff that he shouldn't be putting, like

13:14

electric cars and from China and those

13:16

kinds of things. Yeah, so

13:18

I'll get to that in a second. But

13:20

there's been a bunch of studies looking at

13:23

Trump's many rounds of tariffs. And

13:26

Trump did a whole bunch of these, as listeners

13:28

may remember, on steel,

13:30

aluminum, solar panels, lots

13:33

of consumer products from China,

13:36

washing machines. I'm sure I'm

13:38

forgetting other things. Probably

13:41

TVs. Did he

13:43

do an additional tariff on TV? If they were from

13:45

China, I think he did. So

13:47

he put all of these tariffs in place

13:50

and he said at the time, China is going

13:52

to pay them. Don't worry.

13:55

And then economists actually looked

13:57

at the data to figure

13:59

out... who paid them, right? Because the

14:01

costs get passed on. They're actually remitted by

14:03

the importers. Like,

14:06

so if I import whatever, some

14:09

steel from another country, I have

14:12

to pay the tariff. Right. And then pass it

14:14

on to whomever you're selling it to. Right. So

14:16

the question is, like, how much of it gets passed

14:18

on down the line? And there were

14:20

a whole bunch of these studies, like

14:23

from really respected people, different

14:25

political leanings that basically all

14:27

found that the tariffs were

14:30

paid either mostly or entirely

14:32

by Americans. They were passed

14:34

along to American businesses and or

14:36

American consumers. Trump's explanation of what

14:38

was going on, what would happen

14:40

here, unsurprisingly, did not

14:42

actually happen. And Biden actually

14:44

pointed that out at the time. If you look

14:46

back at statements that he made in

14:49

2019, 2020, when he was running

14:51

for president, he repeatedly said,

14:53

like, I want to

14:55

be tough on China, but this isn't the way to

14:57

do it. All you're doing is

14:59

raising costs for American consumers and

15:01

killing American jobs, which is true,

15:04

especially since, like, some of the things that I

15:06

mentioned are inputs into stuff American

15:09

companies make. So, like, if

15:11

you make steel more expensive, that

15:13

helps the really small population of

15:15

steelworkers, maybe. But what about the

15:17

people who are employed by companies

15:19

that make cars or

15:22

appliances or anything else? They're

15:24

not going to apply. Well, let's say a TV. So

15:26

you put a tariff on it and

15:28

that gets added to the price of the TV.

15:30

So the American pays the tariff. Right.

15:34

But I'm saying it's like not only

15:36

the consumers who are affected, but also

15:38

the American workers who

15:41

maybe need to buy. What are you talking about,

15:43

raw material? Right, right,

15:45

right. Like, that's especially true for the

15:47

steel tariffs. Anyway, so Biden did

15:50

all of this out at the time. Then what happened

15:52

when he got into office, he basically

15:54

kept all of Trump's tariffs in place

15:57

or just swapped them out for some some other

15:59

kind of trade restrictions. restriction, and now

16:01

has announced even more tariffs.

16:03

It's weird because like, Biden

16:07

and his aides

16:09

will frequently make comments

16:12

criticizing Trump for announcing

16:15

more tariffs, or proposing more tariffs like, Oh, this is

16:17

gonna be really bad for inflation. It's like, well, but

16:19

like, you understand that they're bad when he does it,

16:21

but then you don't understand that it's bad when you

16:23

do it or when you keep his thing. The

16:26

Biden folks will say, Oh, our tariffs are

16:28

much more targeted. Okay, so

16:30

he doesn't have a clean head in the

16:33

debate then. Yeah, I think that's the case.

16:36

Okay. Now, Republicans want to renew the 2017 tax

16:38

cut. When does that

16:41

set to expire? The

16:44

individual provisions. So like the lower

16:46

tax rates for regular American households

16:48

and the bigger standard reduction and

16:51

stuff like that, that all expires

16:53

next year, 2025. Now,

16:55

this was not a popular tax

16:58

cut. Correct.

17:01

If you look at polling on the tax

17:03

cut, it

17:07

was basically always underwater,

17:10

meaning that Americans were much more likely

17:12

to disapprove of it than approve of

17:15

it. Some of that

17:17

is, to be fair

17:20

about some misperceptions about the tax cut.

17:22

I think it was a bad policy.

17:25

Now why? It was heavily weighted

17:27

toward the wealthy. It wasn't paid for.

17:29

There, there you go. Yeah. And

17:31

it added to the deficit about 1.9

17:33

trillion. Correct. You know, over

17:38

10 years. So it was very expensive. It

17:40

wasn't paid for. We hear all of this

17:42

like hue and cry about how important it

17:44

is to get our deficits down. And meanwhile,

17:46

they added 2 trillion. By,

17:48

especially by the Republican bar.

17:50

Especially by the Republicans. Yes. And

17:53

then you see like, they're just like, sure,

17:55

we'll add $2 trillion to the deficit. Now

17:57

the misperception I mentioned is that. Most

18:01

Americans actually did get a tax

18:03

cut from this, including the middle

18:05

class, lower income people. It was

18:07

much smaller as a share

18:10

of their income than the tax cuts did. As

18:12

a share of their income. Yeah. And

18:15

in dollar terms, and as a share of their income,

18:17

then high income people got. But most people are like,

18:19

oh, I didn't get anything from it. Only

18:22

the rich got something from it. It's actually true that

18:24

like everybody got something, it's just the rich got even

18:27

more. Our tax code is really

18:29

illegible, like it's hard to figure out what your tax rate

18:31

is. If you

18:33

ask Americans, and I'm talking

18:35

about even Trump voters and

18:38

Republicans, won't they

18:40

say that those

18:42

upper income earners should pay more

18:44

in taxes? Yes. That's

18:48

the one thing I don't understand from

18:50

Trump voters, which is, do

18:52

they understand what the bargain is when you

18:54

have that kind of tax cut? I

18:57

don't know if they care, to be honest. It

19:01

seems like economics is something

19:03

that people really care

19:05

about, and their own economics.

19:08

They say they do. I want to

19:11

ask you about a column you wrote about what

19:13

Americans understand about the economy. And it was

19:15

pretty shocking. The one that

19:17

wasn't shocking is on inflation.

19:19

When was this done? This survey? The

19:23

survey. I think it was like in the past

19:25

month. And

19:27

most Americans said that inflation is going

19:29

up. And I can

19:31

understand that, them saying that.

19:33

The rate of inflation is going down. That

19:37

means inflation is going down, right?

19:39

Technically. But if

19:42

the price of stuff you're paying is

19:44

going up, you

19:46

think inflation is going up. That's kind of

19:50

a natural thing to say. Yeah,

19:52

I think it's like economists and

19:54

normal people use the term inflation

19:57

very differently. Economists mean... the

20:00

pace of growth of price increases.

20:02

Right. Normal people mean like the

20:04

level of prices and this is like a

20:06

really dumb wonky

20:09

difference, right? Like normal Americans will say,

20:11

hey, a gallon of

20:13

milk is, you know,

20:16

a few years ago was like, I

20:20

don't know, I'm lactose intolerant, I don't buy milk. So

20:22

let's say it was like three bucks a gallon and then

20:24

it went up to four bucks a gallon. I

20:26

love lactose by the way. And I

20:28

still don't know what the price of

20:31

the gallon is. I

20:33

know I'm not lactose intolerant. Okay.

20:35

Well, you're one of the chosen few

20:37

among the chosen few in

20:40

any event. So like Americans might say,

20:42

okay, it was three bucks, then it

20:44

was four bucks a gallon. And

20:46

now it's still four bucks a gallon. And

20:49

when is it going to go back to $3? Damn

20:52

you inflation. Economists would say

20:55

it went up from $3 a gallon to

20:57

$4 a gallon, but it stayed steady

21:00

at four bucks a gallon. That's

21:03

success, right? Because it hasn't

21:05

continued increasing. The goal of the

21:07

Federal Reserve is not to get it to

21:09

go down, it's to get it to stop increasing as

21:11

much. Okay. So I forgive

21:14

Americans for saying inflation is

21:16

going up when in fact, it's not going

21:18

up in terms of

21:20

the rate of increase in it. Right. So

21:22

that I completely understand. But there are other

21:25

things like they thought we were

21:27

in a recession and

21:29

we're not in a recession. They thought

21:31

that employment was down. Right?

21:34

If you look at the numbers, they

21:36

think unemployment is at a 50 year

21:38

high, which it is absolutely not. It is close

21:41

to the opposite. It is below four, right? Right.

21:44

It's been below 4% for over

21:46

two years. The last time we

21:49

had unemployment that good for that

21:51

long was when Nixon was president.

21:53

If you ask people like, do you think stock

21:55

markets are up or down since the beginning of

21:58

the year, they think they're down even. though

22:01

we've actually hit record high levels for

22:03

stock markets. Like I said, inflation,

22:06

even recession, I think it's partly just like,

22:08

what does the word mean to different people?

22:11

That's more forgivable. It's just a, it's a

22:13

usage difference. On these

22:16

things, like whether the

22:18

stock market is up or down, I don't know

22:20

how to spin that as like, maybe people mean

22:22

something different. No, it is objectively wrong that stock

22:25

markets are down or that

22:27

unemployment is high when it

22:29

is actually very, very

22:31

low in historical terms. Sort

22:33

of historical lows. Yes.

22:36

Yeah. So what's

22:38

the explanation for this? Why do

22:40

people have these misconceptions? I

22:43

would explain it a few different ways. One

22:47

is that views of

22:49

the economy are much more partisan than

22:51

they used to be. People

22:54

are more likely

22:56

to rate the economy

22:58

poorly when their party's

23:00

out of office. And so the numbers

23:03

among Republicans are especially bad in

23:05

terms of how they view all these different

23:07

economic metrics, but that

23:09

can't explain everything because the numbers among Democrats

23:11

are also pretty bad, so it's

23:13

not only that. I think

23:16

it's also that the media, those

23:19

of us in the, in the journalism business

23:22

has not been great

23:24

about talking as much about

23:26

the good numbers as we were at talking

23:28

about the bad numbers. So there's a

23:30

bias toward reporting bad news. Yeah.

23:33

Yes. And that's always been true. That's

23:35

always, always been true. You know, the idea that

23:37

if it bleeds, it leads. If

23:40

you're watching MSNBC, they'll

23:42

show the good news. And if you're

23:44

watching Fox, they'll show the bad news. Or

23:48

you're not so sure, I see. I don't know.

23:51

I'm sure that's true. I'm sure it's true of Fox.

23:53

With MSNBC, I wonder how

23:56

much coverage they've given

23:58

to the. I'm

24:00

sure it's more than Fox, but I haven't done an analysis.

24:02

Well, when the stock market goes, you know, hits

24:05

a new high, they go, ding, ding, ding, ding,

24:07

ding, look at this. And

24:10

yet, and yet, Biden-Nomics, what

24:12

a bad idea that was

24:15

as a campaign slogan. This

24:18

was at a point where I

24:20

know exactly what happened. They went like,

24:23

look, we're not going to go into a recession.

24:26

And the stock market is at record highs.

24:29

And yet, our growth continues.

24:33

That's a miracle. And you

24:35

know what? That miracle is

24:37

Biden-Nomics. And then

24:39

they just start doing Biden-Nomics at

24:42

a point where Americans are,

24:44

their feelings about the economy are what

24:46

this poll reflects, right? Yeah,

24:49

it was kind of the same issue

24:52

that Obama faced in, I

24:56

guess this is like around 2011, 2012,

25:00

when he was running for reelection, was

25:02

that he was talking about how much the

25:04

economy had improved from its

25:08

deep, dark depths from the Great Recession

25:10

and the financial crisis. But people

25:12

still felt pretty lousy. And so the whole

25:14

thing seemed kind of tone deaf. Yeah, well,

25:16

that's why that was going to be a close election

25:19

and why we were nervous.

25:21

Yeah. And

25:24

so I think, I genuinely think the

25:26

Biden administration is in a difficult spot.

25:28

Like how do you talk

25:30

about the good news without making

25:33

it sound like you're tone deaf

25:36

and you're dismissing Americans' real concerns? Because

25:38

like I said, some of these things,

25:40

like people are just wrong about the stock market.

25:43

But I think they are valid

25:45

to be upset about grocery

25:48

prices going up, whether it's milk or anything

25:50

else. Even if grocery prices have kind of

25:53

flattened out, and if you look at the numbers

25:55

year over year, they're basically flat. There had been

25:57

so much growth before that that people do. get

26:00

sticker shock every time that they go to the supermarket.

26:02

And I don't think it's really like useful

26:05

or productive to tell people your

26:07

feelings aren't valid. No,

26:10

I think that's always when I was in

26:12

office, that's what I used to say to

26:14

voters. Your feelings

26:16

aren't valid. Things are

26:18

much better. Yeah,

26:22

so I think it's hard. I don't know what

26:24

the right messaging is. And as

26:26

I said, the media coverage has been biased

26:28

toward the negative, but that's largely

26:31

because our audiences are biased toward

26:33

the negative. And so people

26:35

love to hate on the media. And we should

26:38

be doing better. But the problem

26:40

is that when we talk

26:42

about good news, people don't

26:46

want to read it or listen to it as much.

26:48

I mean, like I can see this in my own

26:50

traffic numbers, that when I write about something

26:53

catastrophic, like it's going to get way more

26:55

clicks than if I say this thing was

26:57

good. And obviously,

26:59

like, I shouldn't let

27:02

that drive what I choose to write about,

27:04

or how I choose to write it. But

27:06

on some subconscious level, it's going to affect

27:08

every journalist, no matter how principled we think

27:10

we are. So my

27:13

argument is always, look, if you're

27:15

pissed off about how news

27:18

coverage is so negative, then reward

27:21

the stuff you want with your attention.

27:23

Like, click on and share the stuff

27:26

that you say you want more of

27:28

from the media, rather

27:30

than just bitching about it. Like

27:32

actually help change our incentives. That's

27:35

such a hard ask. But like, I

27:37

know that people are more likely to

27:39

share, click on and share,

27:41

you know, send to their families, whatever

27:44

the stuff that I write about how something

27:46

is terrible than when something is good. And

27:48

I still make sure I carve

27:51

out columns to write about

27:53

important good news. But like, I just know,

27:55

okay, that's nobody's gonna read it. But

27:58

I think it's hard. I have have

28:00

a platform with some responsibility, I'm still

28:02

going to try to use whatever

28:04

influence I have to highlight things that

28:06

are good, bad, and in between. Like

28:09

most news organizations, most journalists do

28:11

not necessarily have the luxury of

28:14

just being able to write about whatever they think is

28:17

best for readers because

28:20

newsrooms are shrinking, resources are scarce.

28:22

And so like, again,

28:24

even if it's not a conscious decision, you're going

28:27

to devote more resources when you're

28:29

really financially stressed and the things that you know people

28:31

won't read. It's a real problem. We're going

28:33

to take a quick break. We'll be right back. Tapping the

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30:06

So recently he wrote about

30:09

Langford voting against his own immigration

30:11

bill, which

30:13

was kind of humiliating I

30:15

think, you know, in a way for him. He

30:18

worked so hard on that and was

30:21

a champion and it was basically

30:23

a bill that met

30:25

all the criteria of conservatives

30:28

for those people who want to keep

30:30

people out. Yeah. And

30:33

do something about the crisis at

30:35

the border and it was all

30:37

set to go and then Trump didn't

30:40

want things to improve. He wanted

30:42

to keep them as bad as possible for

30:46

his election. Yeah, the

30:48

problem was much more politically

30:50

useful than the cure in this particular

30:52

case, as is unfortunately often the case

30:54

in politics. And the

30:56

listeners may recall that the

30:58

whole reason these bipartisan border

31:00

negotiations happened was that last

31:03

fall, Republicans

31:05

demanded them as

31:07

a concession in exchange for giving money

31:10

to Ukraine and Israel. Right.

31:12

That was the whole fight. Democrats

31:15

wanted to give money,

31:18

give aid to Ukraine

31:21

as well as Israel, which had more bipartisan

31:24

support. And Republicans

31:26

said, no, no, no, no, we

31:28

refuse unless you

31:30

do these like really hardcore border things

31:33

that we want. Negotiation stretched

31:35

on for a while. Democrats basically

31:37

gave up the store. There

31:39

were a number of Democrats who voted against it. Well,

31:42

yes, but I'm saying like in terms of

31:45

the negotiations that led up to the vote,

31:48

Republicans got pretty much everything that they

31:50

wanted on border security.

31:53

I mean, there are a lot of things that Democrats

31:55

– I guess I should clarify. Like a lot of

31:58

Democrats are in favor of having more funding for. Border

32:01

Patrol and asylum

32:04

judges. There were like changes to the asylum

32:06

system that a lot of progressives were unhappy

32:08

with but like they were in favor of

32:10

some of this stuff but in terms of

32:12

their biggest priorities things like getting

32:15

permanent legal status for

32:17

Dream Legion for example that

32:20

was completely missing. All of this

32:22

stuff that Democrats usually want as

32:24

part of like a grand bargain

32:26

on immigration that was gone. Instead

32:29

it was all border security stuff then

32:31

Republicans like got everything they wanted

32:34

in their hard bargain and then

32:36

couldn't take yes for an answer

32:38

because Trump said

32:41

no don't vote for this and then they kind of

32:44

like had to twist themselves into knots to explain why

32:47

after demanding these concessions

32:49

they didn't want them and they

32:51

kept on saying well Biden can just use

32:54

existing law to do all this stuff and

32:56

it's like well then why did you demand

32:58

this other law get

33:00

negotiated whatever it was

33:03

completely incoherent. Since then separately

33:07

the funding for Ukraine and Israel went

33:09

through and then subsequently Democrats were like

33:11

okay like we'll just give you the

33:13

stuff you asked for separately

33:16

because like the stuff we wanted

33:18

has already gone through and Republicans

33:21

including Lankford who negotiated

33:23

that deal, he voted

33:25

against it. The first time they had a vote for

33:27

it which was I want to say like back

33:29

in... He voted for it the first time? Yeah

33:32

he did and he gave actually this very

33:34

moving speech like all of his Republican

33:37

colleagues or almost all of them voted

33:39

against it and he was like we've been

33:42

sent here to solve problems and I can

33:44

like give speeches anywhere in the country but

33:46

it's only here on Capitol Hill in the

33:49

Senate that we can actually solve this problem

33:51

and I wish we could solve this problem

33:53

now but it was like a

33:56

pretty... emotional speech

33:59

about... Like he wanted to fix the problem

34:01

and voters had sent him there to fix the

34:03

problem and he was so frustrated that his party

34:05

was not fixing the problem. And

34:08

then again,

34:10

like the Israel-Ukraine

34:12

stuff went through. Schumer brought the

34:14

bill back to the same bill,

34:17

back to the floor, unbundled with

34:19

the Ukraine stuff a couple of

34:21

weeks ago. And this time even Lankford

34:24

voted against it. That's

34:26

pretty sad. It is. It felt

34:29

very humiliating, I think is the right word. I mean,

34:31

I don't know that Lankford would use that word, but

34:34

it's just there isn't even

34:36

an attempt to try to solve problems

34:38

at all, even the problems that Republicans

34:42

claim to be most concerned with.

34:45

And actually, Biden is announcing

34:48

that he is going to try

34:50

to unilaterally do some of the

34:52

things that were in that bill, just

34:54

like Republicans said, oh, he can just do this on

34:56

his own. The problem is – it's like shutting down

34:58

the border and stuff like that. The

35:01

problem is that Trump tried to do them and courts found them

35:03

to be illegal without having

35:05

a new law. So Biden

35:07

is now like – I don't know

35:09

if you want to say calling their bluff or what, but Biden

35:12

is now saying, okay, you told me I could do this without

35:14

– you're actually passing a law that I have the authority to

35:16

do it. I'm going to try to do it, but

35:18

it's almost certainly going to get blocked in courts again, just

35:20

like it was under Trump. So what

35:22

are the stakes in this election? I mean,

35:26

we have the Senate in play, certainly,

35:28

and the House in play. I mean,

35:30

that's a very, very thin margin.

35:33

I'm most concerned about

35:37

who fills the White House, kind of

35:39

regardless of who controls the Senate

35:41

and the House, because I

35:43

think there's a lot of bad stuff that

35:46

Trump would do in a second term with or

35:48

without the help of Congress. But obviously, it would

35:51

be worse if you

35:53

had no even attempt to

35:55

check his power because Republicans

35:58

had a trifecta next year. And

36:00

that would be unimaginably

36:02

worse, but the stakes are very

36:04

high, even if it's only Trump

36:06

in the White House. And Democrats

36:08

somehow managed to control both

36:11

chambers of Congress, which I don't think is

36:13

likely to happen. But

36:15

yeah, I mean, I'm very concerned. We've

36:17

talked about economic stuff, obviously, and that's

36:20

pretty bad, especially since that's what voters

36:22

claim to care about. But

36:24

I'm much more concerned about other

36:27

forms of Democratic backsliding. What

36:30

happens to civil rights?

36:33

What happens to rule of law? Corruption.

36:38

Corruption. Trump already tried

36:40

to steal everything that wasn't nailed down when he

36:42

was president before. I think

36:45

it'll probably be worse next

36:47

time around. Have you looked

36:49

into how much he gained,

36:52

how much money that he

36:54

gained while he was president? I

36:57

know that there have been some estimates

36:59

for how much

37:02

he got from the Secret Service. I'm

37:04

not aware of a comprehensive

37:06

number for all of the

37:08

other stuff that he

37:11

got, because I think it's just not transparent. All

37:14

of the times the Saudis stayed at

37:16

his various property,

37:19

and yeah, I think

37:21

that there have been – correct me if I'm wrong –

37:23

if there has been a really good comprehensive attempt,

37:25

I'm not aware of it. But there have been

37:28

these sort of piecemeal looks at

37:30

how much he got from

37:32

individual transactions. That's part of

37:34

the problem here. It's like he

37:37

doesn't disclose his tax returns. He

37:40

doesn't disclose things that

37:43

are probably even more significant than what's on his

37:45

tax returns, like who

37:47

he owes money to and at

37:49

what race, because there are lots of ways

37:51

to hide a bribe that don't involve a

37:53

direct payment. So yeah, all

37:57

this stuff is really bad, although

37:59

surprisingly. Like as opaque as he's

38:01

been on some of like these core

38:04

issues He has

38:06

been like sort of flippantly open

38:08

about other kinds of quid pro

38:10

quos Like there have been a

38:13

bunch of examples where he did fundraisers recently

38:15

where he told Come

38:17

on the oil guys. Yeah, he

38:19

told the oil execs that they He

38:22

was like to just give me a billion dollars

38:24

and It'll

38:26

be really good for the oil industry. They'll

38:29

get a great deal. I think was the word that I

38:31

saw He'll

38:35

help them out with tax breaks and

38:38

deregulation regulation particularly and

38:42

There were some other reporting saying recently saying that

38:44

he'll let all of their mergers

38:46

and acquisitions Sail

38:49

through without scrutiny and

38:51

so like yeah, they're probably a

38:54

billion dollars could be a great

38:56

exchange If

38:59

they're really I mean depends what they're

39:01

maximizing I guess like if they're maximizing

39:03

their short-term profits good for them The

39:05

problem is that when you put an authoritarian

39:08

a fickle authoritarian

39:11

no less in office Like

39:14

that's probably not good for your bottom line in

39:16

the long run because at the point that

39:18

you degrade rule of law

39:20

that you have an economy

39:22

that's no longer about Letting

39:25

markets decide who was a winner or

39:27

a loser as Republicans normally claim that

39:29

they want to happen But

39:32

rather who's bribing or whatever, you

39:34

know the best best buddies who's

39:36

closest with the president That

39:38

has a lot of distortions and frankly

39:41

like Trump is not a reliable Counterparty

39:43

for these things like you give him

39:45

a billion dollars now Maybe

39:48

he gives you your tax breaks or whatever But

39:50

what happens if you get caught

39:52

like on a hot mic at a party

39:54

sometime Saying something about

39:56

his ties or whatever, you know, he's

39:58

a a

40:00

very vengeful guy. And even

40:03

before he was president, like he was well

40:05

known for never keeping his end of a

40:08

bargain. He stiffed every

40:10

granite countertop salesman and

40:12

other small contractor he

40:15

dealt with. JANOS. Yeah,

40:18

like the chandelier guy for Trump

40:20

casinos or whoever. Like there's like

40:22

a list of lawsuits,

40:24

miles and miles long, that

40:27

prove that he is not a

40:29

reliable negotiating partner. So

40:31

the fact that like these industrial

40:34

titans and billionaires and whatever are

40:36

like, oh, whatever, like he's transactional,

40:39

we can control him. We'll give him

40:41

a billion dollars and we'll get it back

40:43

many fold. Maybe they will.

40:45

Like best case scenario for them, not

40:47

for the rest of us is maybe

40:49

they will. But like, you cannot take

40:51

this guy at his word. Why

40:54

would you think that, okay, we

40:56

can ride the tiger and we

40:58

can manage this guy is really

41:00

a, yeah, like that

41:03

this is a reliable relationship. The

41:08

column that I wrote about this a while

41:10

ago was like, you know,

41:12

anyone who would trade democracy for

41:14

a little financial gain is probably

41:16

going to get neither in the

41:18

end, right? If you put an

41:20

authoritarian in office because you

41:23

think you can manage him, you

41:25

know, he's transactional enough that like

41:27

you can get your quiz and

41:30

quotes in order, maybe

41:33

that'll work, but you may end

41:36

up degrading the quality of the

41:38

economy and the conditions of

41:41

the business sector so much.

41:43

You know, we no longer enforce fraud, for

41:45

example, we no longer enforce contracts unless you're

41:47

a friend of

41:50

the top guy in the Oval Office, that

41:52

leads to bad outcomes. This is why it's

41:55

better to do business in the

41:57

United States than it is in a place like Russia

41:59

or in China. China because we have rule

42:01

of law. And why

42:03

people like to do business in the United

42:05

States. Right. Exactly.

42:08

And if you're willing to trade that away for

42:10

some near-term tax breaks, you are

42:12

really making the wrong calculation. Again, not

42:14

just on a moral level, but on

42:16

a self-interested financial level. Well,

42:20

that's, I think, a good note to end

42:22

on, unless you have another note

42:24

you want to end on. No,

42:26

that's good. I'll get down off my soapbox.

42:29

No, it's a good soapbox. I mean, I

42:32

really am kind of scared about this one. And

42:35

you don't need to say so because you're

42:38

on the op-ed page. I

42:41

say it every week, I think. Yes. Because

42:43

I'm on the op-ed page. Yes. Well, thank you,

42:46

Catherine. Thanks for having me. Always

42:48

a pleasure. Well, I hope

42:51

you enjoyed listening. That

42:53

beautiful music is by Leo Kotky, the

42:55

great Leo Kotky. I

42:57

want to thank Peter Ogburn for producing

43:00

this podcast. We'll talk

43:03

again next week. Thanks

43:27

for coming with me to Meijer. Absolutely.

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