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for Amazing Sports Stories wherever you get
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your BBC podcasts. We
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got cut off before. What happened? Well,
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some of the soldiers was very
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interested in what I was doing
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outside the military base. It
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was kind of sketchy for them, probably.
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Since I was sitting in this car
2:02
outside this military base, I
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had my computer with me, this
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huge microphone, and just sitting
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there and talking with somebody for like, we
2:10
were talking for like 40 minutes and
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there was nobody else there, only me,
2:15
so probably it's just their job to
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ask what I was doing there.
2:20
Are you okay? What happened? Yeah, they
2:22
got very interested when I told them
2:24
that I was talking with you in
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London that this is going to be
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a radio show, so probably
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you have more listeners than in the original.
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Woohoo, a win for the climate question.
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Yeah. You
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can't say we don't get good
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access here on the BBC World
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Service. That was Almond Trellovec. He's
2:47
a Norwegian reporter specialising in relations
2:49
between Russia and the West. And
2:52
you're going to be hearing a
2:54
lot more from him throughout the
2:56
show, because climate change is reshaping
2:58
Russia's Arctic coastline, and
3:00
that has very real repercussions
3:02
for global security. I'm
3:06
Graeme Jackson, and our climate question
3:08
this week, why is climate
3:10
change causing tensions to rise in
3:13
the Arctic? In
3:21
the past, we've talked a lot about
3:23
how a warming world may bring about
3:25
more conflict, and this is one such
3:27
story. But to understand its
3:29
roots and connection to climate change, you
3:31
need to understand what's happening to Arctic
3:34
sea ice. And a scientist
3:36
named Julie Breghum-Gready is just the person
3:38
to talk us through that. I'm
3:40
a professor of Earth Sciences in
3:43
the Department of Earth, Geographic
3:45
and Climate Science at the
3:47
University of Massachusetts, Amherst. And
3:50
you've worked in the Arctic for a really
3:52
long time, haven't you Julie? Yes, I've
3:54
been working in the Arctic for over 40
3:56
years, and started as a
3:59
graduate student. I mean, it
4:01
must be a pretty challenging environment
4:03
to work in. It was a
4:05
challenging environment, particularly lots of skepticism
4:07
in late 1970s about women going
4:11
up to the Arctic. It was largely
4:13
a man's world. So, partly, it
4:15
was just thought that we weren't tough enough.
4:18
But our generation of women has shown that
4:20
that isn't the case. And now we see
4:22
a lot of equity in science across the
4:25
polar regions. I mean, how tough was it
4:27
to go up there and do fieldwork? You
4:29
have to certainly tolerate some
4:32
extreme weather conditions. I have
4:34
many stories of being caught
4:37
in excruciating snowstorms or heavy
4:39
winds. There are physical
4:41
challenges that test our physical strength as
4:44
well as mental strength. Now, Julie,
4:46
I wonder if you can give us a
4:48
bit of a geography lesson when it comes
4:50
to the North Pole, because I didn't quite
4:52
appreciate that there's actually no land there. It's
4:55
just a big sheet of ice that sort
4:57
of expands and contracts over the sea. Exactly.
4:59
And in fact, over 100 years
5:02
ago, people still didn't know whether
5:04
there was anything
5:06
at the North Pole. So we
5:08
have these what I call Arctic
5:10
borderlands that include, of
5:13
course, Canada, Alaska, Russia,
5:15
Norway, Sweden, and so
5:17
on, that normally in winter
5:19
freezes over with sea ice. And
5:22
then in the summer, the edges of
5:24
that sea ice melt back. That's a
5:27
huge difference from Antarctica, where you have
5:29
a continent in the middle of the
5:31
polar region surrounded by the Southern Ocean.
5:35
I mean, how has it changed since you
5:37
first went 40 odd years ago? Oh, it's
5:39
changed a lot. And the most dramatic change
5:41
is really in the extent of
5:44
the sea ice. When I
5:46
was first doing my work on the
5:48
coast of Alaska, it was not uncommon
5:50
for me with my small boat
5:52
to get stuck by sea ice. Even
5:54
in July and August, that sea ice would be
5:56
a problem. Today, it is not.
6:05
And that's a problem for Russia. It
6:07
has over 24,000 kilometres of coastline to defend
6:11
up there in the Arctic Circle. Before,
6:14
the sea ice did a great job
6:16
of keeping foreign military boats and submarines
6:18
well away, a natural defence if you
6:20
like. But now there's less
6:23
sea ice, and even no sea ice
6:25
for long stretches of the year. These
6:27
foreign intelligence vessels can get much closer
6:29
for much longer than Russia would like.
6:32
And if history has to address anything about
6:34
how Russia perceives the intrusion of foreign presence
6:36
is that they need to limit the
6:39
presence of foreign actors. And they do it
6:41
the way that Russia does it, which is
6:43
to militarise the region to make
6:45
sure that we don't get too close. And we
6:47
is the collective West or now NATO. Matthew
6:50
Büling has been watching the changing landscape
6:52
in Russia as part of his job
6:54
at a couple of think tanks, Chatham
6:56
House in the UK, as well as
6:58
the Polar Institute at the Wilson Centre
7:00
in the US. This
7:03
militarisation of an ice-free and
7:05
thus undefended border began in
7:07
the 2010s, Matthew says. The
7:10
Arctic relations were set to get
7:12
a lot more frosty when Russia
7:14
went on the offensive. The
7:16
end of the spirit of good cooperation
7:18
between all circumpolar countries was first and
7:21
foremost caused and provoked by Russia's actions
7:23
and policies, not least in Ukraine since
7:25
2014. Help the
7:28
provocation and start negotiations. A plea
7:30
to Moscow from Ukraine's acting president
7:32
after two airports in Crimea are
7:34
seized by armed men. And
7:36
further to the full-scale invasion of 2022. Mr
7:40
House has struck key targets in the
7:42
capital and in the east of Ukraine.
7:44
Ukraine's president issued... When we
7:46
really start talking about geopolitics, it's actually
7:48
very interesting to see that the Arctic
7:50
is increasingly defined in terms of an
7:53
increasingly isolated Russia and the
7:56
rest of the countries which happen now to be
7:58
NATO territory with the expansion of the of
8:00
the Atlantic Alliance to Finland and
8:02
Sweden. We now have this sort
8:05
of new situation where it's basically
8:07
the NATO seven circumpolar country against
8:09
Russia. Have we seen
8:11
Russia militarize the Arctic space? Or
8:13
what is it exactly that you
8:15
see that leads you to that
8:17
conclusion? So what we've
8:19
seen is a slow burning re-appropriation,
8:22
more presence, the construction or strengthening
8:24
of existing bases, new
8:26
airstrips to make sure that
8:29
the Kremlin could land aircraft,
8:31
for instance. I'm interested that
8:33
you're using the word militarization there. Where's
8:36
the line between the security
8:38
element of rightly defending your
8:40
borders versus the more aggressive
8:43
term that you're using, which
8:45
is militarization? The key here is
8:47
to understand that you have two forms of security in
8:49
a way, an environment. You have
8:51
what we call soft security, which has
8:53
a lot to do with search and
8:55
rescue operations, border protection, making sure that
8:57
your waters are protected when
8:59
it comes to avoiding illegal
9:02
fishing and shipments of
9:04
nefarious substances and so on. The
9:09
other side is hard security, anything
9:11
military, anything that has to do
9:13
with weaponization of the region,
9:16
placing military assets that can be
9:18
used to gather adverse information against
9:20
your opponents and so on. And
9:23
what is defensive can be turned into
9:25
an offensive system by the flick of
9:27
a button, not seeking to escalate for
9:29
no reason, but they are planning for
9:31
all contingencies. And this is the problem
9:33
because they're planning equally for defensive maneuvers,
9:35
but also for war. The
9:41
Arctic region is very important for
9:43
Russia and the Russian military forces.
9:45
They have some of their most
9:48
important military bases on the Kola
9:50
Peninsula, closer to the Norwegian
9:52
border bases with atomic nuclear
9:54
weapons. So
9:57
it's very important for Russia to have control
9:59
in this region. That's
10:01
our Arctic reporter, O I
10:26
can try to step
10:28
out of my car to have a sense of what's
10:30
going on. It's
10:32
windy weather with rain
10:35
so it's not very possible to
10:37
be outside. Kind of cold as
10:39
well. Do you want to step back
10:41
into your car? I'm feeling a bit guilty
10:43
about making you stand outside in that weather.
10:45
Sure. Now
10:49
I'm sitting in my car.
10:52
I'm walking at two French
10:54
military vessels, one submarine and
10:56
one ordinary vessel. It's
10:59
the first time the French Navy is
11:02
visiting this part of Norway. From Saadäwister
11:05
from America, the
11:08
largest submarine ever been
11:11
present in Sromsø. How
11:13
big is the US submarine? Do you know?
11:16
Well, it is 170 meters long. Wow.
11:20
And I spoke to a guy
11:22
that was inside on a guided
11:24
tour and he told me that
11:26
they had four floors inside the
11:29
submarine. Gosh. So it's kind
11:31
of a huge thing. That
11:33
also tells us a lot about
11:35
the rising tensions up in Arctic
11:38
and how the big players are looking at this
11:40
region. Norway
11:44
is spending more and more money on
11:46
their national army. We
11:48
just bought new tanks, also
11:51
new submarines. So
11:54
the military spending in Greece is
11:56
also something happening in Norway. We
12:02
went to the harbour, to the military base, and
12:04
I did a brief
12:06
interview with the commanding officer
12:09
of the local home guard
12:11
force in Fromse. His name
12:13
is Major Svergadale. He
12:16
is in charge when Allied
12:18
was also visiting Fromse. We
12:21
have a large neighbour in the east that
12:23
is kind of interesting in seeing what's going
12:25
on, so we're trying to prevent that. But
12:29
if you see on the
12:31
global picture, these military build-ups,
12:33
unlike the rising tensions between
12:35
the global powers, should
12:37
we be worried about that? Be
12:42
in their attention. I'm
12:45
pretty curious about that long pause
12:47
there. I think in
12:50
the Norwegian military and in the armed
12:52
forces, they don't talk about
12:54
politics. It's up to
12:57
the politicians and to the government to speak on
12:59
behalf when it comes to the rising
13:01
tensions with Russia. A
13:06
reminder that you're listening to the
13:08
climate question from the BBC World
13:10
Service. Today we're answering why tensions
13:12
rising in the Arctic. We've
13:17
heard how melting sea ice is
13:19
creating a new and enormous coastal
13:21
front for Russia to defend, and
13:24
Russia has stepped up its military presence.
13:27
Then the invasion of Ukraine
13:29
and the expansion of NATO
13:31
has effectively ended any cooperation
13:33
between Russia and the West.
13:36
Instead, Russia has been building
13:38
relations with China. It's
13:42
a fascinating relationship and it's one that changes
13:45
a little bit every year, especially now in
13:47
the light of sanctions. Malta
13:49
Humpa is referring to the
13:51
international sanctions placed on Russia
13:53
after it invaded Ukraine. Malta
13:56
is a journalist at High North News and
13:58
a senior fellow at the... Arctic Institute,
14:00
which is a think tank based
14:02
in Washington, DC, in the US.
14:06
And it's not just sanctions that have opened
14:08
up avenues for this budding friendship. Climate
14:11
change and the melting sea ice have
14:13
created a new trade route through the
14:15
Russian Arctic, a way for Russia to
14:17
make money despite those sanctions
14:19
and finance its war. Yeah,
14:22
so we have the Northern Sea Route, which
14:24
is the shipping route that goes along Russia's
14:27
northern coastline, kind of from Scandinavia in
14:29
the west all the way to the
14:31
Bering Strait close to Alaska in the
14:33
east. Why is it so
14:35
attractive to go along that North Sea
14:37
Route? Why wouldn't I just go say
14:40
via the Suez Canal or the Panama
14:42
Canal? So for transit shipping, which
14:44
goes from Asia to Europe, it's shorter. So
14:46
it's about 30 to 40 percent distance saving.
14:48
While you can't really do that in the
14:51
winter yet, because there's still too much ice,
14:53
for about four or five months out of
14:55
the year, you can go
14:57
through the Arctic now without any
14:59
ice classifications. He means
15:01
special ships designed to break through the
15:03
ice, all would stand its crushing forces
15:05
if they were to get a frozen stack.
15:08
But just to be clear, it's still only
15:11
a tiny fraction of world trade passing
15:13
through this route, but it's growing
15:15
and an important moneymaker for Russia,
15:18
which can charge fees and tolls
15:20
to passing vessels. Malta
15:22
says overall the Arctic represents
15:24
20 percent of
15:26
Russia's GDP. There
15:28
is some disagreement here. The US
15:30
says Russia has no right to
15:32
charge fees. And much of the
15:35
world is boycotting this trade route since the
15:37
invasion of Ukraine, with some
15:39
exceptions, including China. For
15:42
China, it really is an alternative trade trade
15:44
route because China is pretty dependent on the
15:46
Suez Canal on the Strait of Malacca by
15:48
Singapore. They are dependent on a few
15:51
key shipping routes that they
15:53
have very little control over. So that's where the Arctic
15:55
comes in as well, that the Arctic, especially if you
15:57
think 20, 30, 40 years down the line, road
16:00
where climate change will have done even more
16:02
opening up, even more damage, more
16:05
shipping routes being available for China. Really,
16:07
the Arctic is a long-term play. How
16:10
would you characterize this relationship with
16:12
China and Russia? So
16:14
China is definitely a benefactor of the
16:16
sanctions. They are able to receive
16:19
more and more oil now from the Russian Arctic,
16:22
and they're receiving it at a discount. They're
16:24
paying about $6 less per barrel of
16:26
oil that they're importing from Russia compared
16:28
to the oil that they're receiving from
16:31
Saudi Arabia. And while Saudi Arabia was
16:33
historically the largest provider of crude oil
16:35
to China, now it's Russia. Melting
16:38
sea ice has also meant Russia can
16:40
access and extract more oil and gas
16:42
than before. In fact, it's extracting 40%
16:46
more Arctic oil than it did a
16:48
decade ago. It's
16:50
not easy mind. This is still
16:52
a pretty hostile place to work
16:54
in. Sub-zero temperatures, of course, but
16:56
also it's isolated, right? If
16:59
you land yourself in trouble, help may be
17:01
weeks or maybe even months away. And
17:04
there's not much in the way of infrastructure up
17:06
there. It has to be built from scratch. In
17:09
other words, it's expensive, which
17:11
is where China comes in
17:13
again. China is heavily
17:15
invested in some of those projects,
17:17
also the liquefied natural gas project
17:19
on the Yamal Peninsula and the
17:21
upcoming Arctic LNG2 project. And
17:23
there's, of course, a certain irony there that it took climate
17:26
change to melt about 50% of the ice. And
17:29
now that the ice is gone, you suddenly
17:31
have the ability to exploit more
17:33
oil and gas and cause more
17:35
CO2 emissions. But for Russia,
17:37
really, this is the lifeblood. These
17:43
new relations between China and Russia,
17:45
two of the world's biggest superpowers,
17:47
might be perceived by some as
17:49
threatening, and certainly something the US
17:51
and Europe will be watching closely.
17:55
But what about in Norway, where our
17:57
reporter Almond is? How real
17:59
is the threat? seen that? I
18:02
think that depends on who you ask.
18:04
Of course, some people feel that the
18:06
situation we are in
18:08
the middle of is very concerning. But
18:11
what the Norwegian military have been
18:13
very outspoken on is that the
18:15
Russian military is not a threat
18:17
to Norway at this moment. Many
18:21
of the soldiers that were based close
18:23
to the Norwegian border before the war
18:25
have been sent to war in Ukraine.
18:29
And many of the bases are now
18:31
totally empty of soldiers. I
18:33
put a similar question to Arctic analyst
18:36
Matthew Tu, and he had a similar
18:38
view. How serious
18:41
are rising tensions that we're seeing today?
18:43
Because I've certainly read articles with titles
18:45
of things like the new Cold War
18:48
is coming to the Arctic. Do you
18:50
take those at face value or are
18:52
you a bit more skeptical? There
18:54
are sort of a tension grabber headlines that should not
18:57
be taken for face value. Cooperation
18:59
remains despite current geopolitics when it
19:01
comes to border management, for instance,
19:04
between Russia and Norway and Russia-Finland
19:06
when it comes to life at
19:08
sea operations or search and rescue
19:11
operations. Traditionally
19:13
it's been quite a low-tension region, hasn't
19:15
it? Yeah, absolutely. And it became
19:18
the spirit of this logic in 1987 during a very famous
19:22
speech given by Mikhail Gorbachev, who
19:24
came up with the idea that
19:27
we should leave geopolitics aside in
19:29
the Arctic because of the nature
19:31
of the environment, because of how
19:33
fragile this environment is. So
19:36
that means stay away from geopolitics. Basically
19:38
don't bring your Cold War competition, which
19:47
was in 1987 coming to an
19:50
end slowly, but don't bring
19:52
it to the fore and don't make it the
19:54
sort of smallest common denominator of how the Arctic
19:56
should be dealt with. It should first and foremost
19:58
be a spirit of cooperation. Arctic
20:01
reporter O one
20:25
of the first thing I did as a newly
20:29
employed local reporter in Czechness
20:31
was to cover the football
20:33
match between the Russian and the
20:35
Norwegian border guards. This was in
20:38
2013 and it's kind of amazing thing
20:40
to watch you know 11 against
20:43
11 military servicemen playing
20:46
a football match. Who won do you
20:48
remember? I think Norway was the
20:50
winner and I remember I asked one
20:52
of the Russian officers in the break
20:55
he was sitting inside
20:57
this cafeteria eating Norwegian waffles and I
20:59
asked him what do you think this
21:01
course should be and he just replied
21:03
with a smile on his face that
21:06
for the sake of the border I hope it will
21:08
be true. Those
21:14
days are long gone and
21:16
even though the risk of a
21:18
new Cold War, maybe small, the
21:20
current tension is a problem for
21:22
people who live in the Arctic.
21:24
Without collaboration it's harder to deal
21:26
with those shared impacts of a
21:28
warmer world. The problem is
21:30
the future the problem is that when it comes
21:32
to dealing with climate change when it comes to
21:35
dealing with the future impact of it on the
21:37
region all these discussions of
21:39
stoops so unless we do
21:41
it collaboratively and all together and we
21:43
have maybe have a fighting chance at
21:46
mitigating the impact of climate change or
21:48
we do it you know separately on the Club of
21:51
Western countries and then without Russia and then without China
21:53
and so on and then this is where we have
21:55
a problem because it's much easier
21:57
and much better to deal with it
21:59
collaboratively. comparatively than standing alone. So the
22:01
future in a way stops. And
22:05
that's a problem for people living in the Arctic.
22:08
As we've heard, it's an area that's warming
22:10
faster than most of the places on Earth.
22:14
People here are on the front line
22:16
of climate change, with sea ice melting,
22:19
new shipping lanes opening, and
22:21
fears over who might venture down
22:23
them, weapons and periscopes at the
22:25
ready. There isn't
22:27
an immediate risk of an Arctic
22:29
war, but tensions are rising, and
22:31
Russians living in the Arctic are
22:34
increasingly cut off from solutions to
22:36
climate change as a result. There
22:40
is one thing that could help.
22:42
We could refreeze the Arctic sea
22:44
ice, and that could put tensions
22:46
on ice. Sea ice
22:48
is actually one of the few things that we
22:51
might be able to bring back. Scientists,
22:53
Julie Brigham-Gready again. If we
22:55
can decrease the CO2 enough
22:57
in the atmosphere and cool the
22:59
high latitudes, it's possible
23:02
some generations into the future that we can
23:04
actually see the sea ice recover. And
23:07
that would be a remarkable feat
23:09
of human ingenuity to do that.
23:26
As a total aside here, sometimes on
23:29
the climate question, we learn interesting things
23:31
or gather tape that doesn't quite fit
23:33
the narrative of the programme, and it
23:35
ends up on the cutting room floor.
23:38
This week, we have a bit more time
23:40
to share those interesting and quirky bits of
23:42
tape with you. So did
23:44
you know winters are darker in
23:46
the Arctic because of climate change?
23:49
I did not. Here's Almond. So
23:51
it's raining now. Now we can
23:53
have rain at Christmas Eve, long
23:56
piers, without any snow at all. have
24:00
the effect that it's lightening up when
24:03
it's even not that much sun. This
24:06
makes this a very dark period of
24:09
the year. Snow
24:11
and ice reflect the sunlight, making
24:13
Norway lighter and brighter in the
24:15
winter months, but now
24:17
there's less snow. It's darker than
24:19
ever. The Arctic
24:21
is also warming four times faster than
24:24
the rest of the world, but people
24:26
in Norway are finding ways to adapt.
24:29
As Amund found out, when he
24:31
visited an allotment to find them
24:33
growing, vegetables that normally grow in
24:35
much warmer conditions. Yeah,
24:38
well every part of the society is changing
24:40
here because of the climate change. I've
24:43
spoken to a guy called
24:45
Røne Patlsson. He is the
24:48
leader of Hult-Erkopak. It's
24:50
both a place where individuals can
24:52
come and put their onions and
24:55
potatoes and carrots into the soil,
24:57
but it's also a school project
24:59
where primary schools learn about
25:01
how to do farming in
25:03
the Arctic region. He
25:06
mentioned that some of the vegetables he grew
25:14
this year is something
25:16
that they usually have in the Mediterranean
25:18
and some
25:20
of his friends now have grapes in
25:22
their garden. Great!
25:26
Yeah, and
25:29
that's something.
25:31
Less snow and ice might
25:33
be something you'd expect with climate change.
25:35
I don't know about you, but growing
25:37
grapes in the Arctic is pretty surprising
25:39
to me. It reminds
25:41
me of this other thing we learned
25:43
in another show that we made about
25:46
the Arctic, this time in Greenland. You
25:48
usually hear about sea levels rising, but
25:51
in Greenland the sea level is
25:53
falling. The reason
25:58
this happens is is that the
26:00
Greenland ice sheet has so
26:03
much ice that the mass
26:05
of ice here actually influences
26:08
Earth's gravitational field. This
26:13
may sound complicated, but you don't need
26:16
to be Einstein to understand why. You
26:19
just need to know that everything
26:21
exerts an invisible force, a force
26:23
that pulls objects towards it. And
26:26
the bigger that thing, the bigger that pull. It's
26:29
how the Earth stays in orbit around the sun.
26:31
It's why apples fall to the ground
26:33
instead of float upwards towards the sky.
26:36
And it's how the Greenland ice sheet
26:38
pulls the ocean towards it. Here's
26:41
Twyla Moon from the University
26:43
of Colorado. So you can
26:45
imagine that this mass of ice is
26:48
pulling ocean water towards it.
26:51
As we're losing that ice, it
26:53
doesn't have the same gravitational pull
26:56
on the ocean waters around it,
26:58
allowing that water to relax away
27:00
and instead create rising seas
27:03
far away. Gosh, I
27:05
mean, I think that's really surprising. It is. And
27:08
in fact, because of the way
27:10
the Earth's system works, people here
27:12
in Greenland are actually needing to
27:15
plan for lowering sea levels. Is
27:17
that because of this gravitational pull
27:19
that you're describing or are there
27:22
other factors here? Here in Greenland,
27:24
sea levels will lower in
27:26
part because of that change in the
27:28
gravitational pull as we lose ice from
27:31
the ice sheet. But also
27:33
as we lose ice from the ice
27:35
sheet here, the ground that it
27:37
sits on is able to rise some.
27:40
I confess I am a science nerd, but to
27:42
me that is just fascinating. That
27:46
wraps things up for today. If you'd
27:48
like to get in touch, the email
27:51
is theclimatequestion at bbc.com. Otherwise,
27:53
we'll be back next week. The
27:55
producer was Ben Cooper. The series
27:57
producers were Alex Lewis and Simon Watts.
28:00
and the editor was Chyna Collins with
28:02
magical mixing by Tom Brigno. Can
28:10
you set the stage a little bit so people understand what
28:13
happened? In 1969,
28:16
14 black student athletes were kicked
28:18
off their university's American football team
28:20
for planning a show of support
28:22
against racism. We were really
28:24
protesting a treatment on the field. Amazing
28:27
sports stories from the BBC World
28:29
Service tells their story. We became brothers
28:31
that day when he did that to
28:33
us. We made a change. Fighting for
28:35
what we deserve. Search for Amazing
28:37
Sports Stories wherever you get your BBC
28:40
podcasts.
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