0:00

Academy Award winner Kate Winslet stars

0:02

in the new HBO original limited

0:04

series, The Regime. Within the

0:06

walls of her palace, the charming

0:08

and terrifying chancellor, played by Winslet,

0:11

becomes increasingly paranoid and delusional.

0:14

When a peculiar outsider joins her staff,

0:16

the chancellor is swept up in

0:18

his unorthodox worldview. Together, they

0:20

will prove their nation's worth on the world

0:22

stage or end up an

0:24

international disaster. From executive producers

0:26

of Succession, HBO's The Regime premieres

0:29

this Sunday on Max. From

0:33

New York Times, I'm Michael Bovaro. This

0:35

is The Daily. Today,

0:46

U.S. officials now acknowledge a growing

0:48

fear that Russia may be trying

0:50

to put a nuclear weapon into

0:53

Earth's orbit. But as

0:55

my colleague Eric Lipton explains, their

0:58

real worry is that America

1:00

could lose the battle for

1:02

military supremacy in space.

1:07

It's Wednesday, February 28th.

1:10

The House's Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Eric,

1:17

this story began in a pretty unusual

1:19

way. I actually watched it unfold on

1:21

social media in real time, and it

1:24

started with a very cryptic message

1:26

from a member of Congress. So

1:28

just tell us about that. Sure.

1:30

Well, Representative Mike Turner, who's chairman

1:32

of the House Intelligence Committee, put

1:35

out a message saying, Today, the

1:37

House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence

1:39

is made available to all members

1:41

of Congress information. He

1:44

had information concerning a serious

1:46

national security threat. And

1:48

it was an unusual kind of

1:51

a statement from the chairman of

1:53

the House Intelligence Committee. I'm requesting

1:55

that President Biden declassify all information

1:57

relating to this threat so that

1:59

Congress, the administration and our allies.

2:01

And so he didn't really tell us

2:04

what this was about, but he... He

2:06

just told us to be very scared.

2:08

Yes. And it immediately set off a

2:10

scramble of national security reporters to try

2:12

to figure out what that message meant.

2:14

Mm-hmm. And pretty quickly... Congressman

2:17

Turner is referring to a

2:19

foreign military capability, and

2:21

that foreign military is the Russian military.

2:24

Reporters heard that this had to do with

2:26

Russia and with a new type of military

2:29

threat. And

2:31

what exactly was this new kind of

2:33

military threat? The intelligence that our New

2:35

York Times colleagues have collected is that

2:37

Russia is preparing to put a

2:40

weapon in space that would blow up a

2:42

nuclear device, and when it

2:44

did that, it would be used

2:46

to target United States surveillance

2:48

satellites. Mm-hmm. Okay.

2:54

So here we need to slow down and

2:57

explain what that means,

2:59

why it's so

3:01

alarming, why nukes would ever

3:03

be in space. So

3:06

just kind of disentangle all of that. I

3:09

think that few Americans realize just how vital

3:11

space is to the military defense of the

3:13

United States. For decades, the

3:15

United States has been building effectively school

3:20

bus-sized satellites that cost a massive

3:22

amounts of money. They're these exquisite

3:25

systems that just sit there in

3:27

space and provide incredible

3:29

information. And we

3:32

rely upon all of the assets

3:34

that we have for, you know, navigation,

3:37

for communication, for missile defense,

3:39

for missile targeting. And

3:41

it's something that is... One

3:43

of the great powers of the United States is to

3:46

have all of this equipment floating around above us. But

3:48

the real flaw in the United

3:51

States military space system

3:54

is that there aren't very many of them, and

3:57

you don't have to take out too many of them to...

4:00

severely disable the United States'

4:02

capacities. Got it. So back

4:04

to this Congressman Turner and his message. Why

4:07

would the Russians need

4:09

a nuclear element to

4:11

their efforts to challenge

4:13

America's satellite programs in

4:15

space? Russia sees

4:18

potentially a nuclear weapon as a way

4:20

to take out large numbers of satellites

4:23

in an instant. Wow.

4:25

It would fry them, it would destroy

4:27

them, it would create all kinds of

4:29

debris in space. And I think what's

4:31

really going on here is the Russians

4:33

in the early stages of their invasion

4:36

of Ukraine were really frustrated that they

4:38

were not able to really block the

4:40

ability of the Ukrainian military to continue

4:42

to communicate. And that's

4:44

because the Ukrainian military was relying

4:46

on SpaceX and Elon

4:48

Musk and his network of Starlink

4:51

satellites to continue to

4:53

operate. And it was

4:55

actually in late 2022 when the Russians said,

4:57

you know what, those

4:59

American satellites are getting in our

5:01

way and we may choose

5:03

to target those satellites in the future. And

5:06

I think that's what might be going on

5:08

right now. Got

5:10

it. So Russia has decided that

5:12

a way for it to achieve

5:14

any kind of military advantage over

5:16

the U.S. and have success in

5:18

things like its invasion of Ukraine

5:21

is to be able to threaten the

5:24

United States satellite infrastructure

5:26

in space in such

5:28

a way that might make it hard

5:30

for the U.S. to effectively fight back

5:33

against Russia. That's

5:35

right. I mean, on the ground, Russia has

5:37

been using what they call GPS jammers to

5:39

disrupt the signals from satellites that are coming

5:41

down in Ukraine on the ground as they're

5:43

fighting the war. But

5:46

everything from the location of

5:48

the soldier on the ground to when

5:50

there's a missile that's launched that's targeted

5:52

in the United States to how a

5:54

ship communicates with another ship, everything goes

5:57

through space. And I think that's

5:59

one of the weakest pieces. points that

6:01

the United States has and it's the ability to

6:03

mess up or disable their

6:05

space-based communications targeting surveillance.

6:09

You're saying that when a rival like

6:11

Russia thinks about how it could actually

6:14

and efficiently take out America's

6:16

eyes and ears of our entire military, it

6:18

turns out there's really only one answer and

6:20

that's by doing it in space. Right,

6:23

it doesn't matter how big and powerful

6:25

the weapons systems are. If they can't

6:27

target and they can't

6:29

communicate, they're basically useless. Okay,

6:32

so if you believe

6:34

that Russia could put a nuclear weapon

6:36

in space that could hurt our ability

6:38

to have eyes and ears on what

6:40

they're doing, that would be very scary.

6:42

But how confident are we that Vladimir

6:44

Putin can in fact put a nuclear

6:47

weapon in space that's capable of

6:49

doing that? Given that

6:51

in fact there's already been nuclear tests in

6:53

space in the 1960s, the idea of them

6:57

doing this is not out of

6:59

the realm of technical possibilities. It

7:01

would be a violation of an

7:03

international treaty, but Russia hasn't shown

7:06

much concern about violating international treaties.

7:08

So I don't think technically it would

7:10

be that much of a challenge. It

7:12

would destabilize the world because suddenly you'd

7:14

have nuclear weapons in space and it

7:16

would cross a line that so far

7:19

no one has crossed. But the

7:21

notion, can it be done? I think it could be

7:23

done. And I guess the question is not

7:25

just can it be done, but how

7:27

confident is the US that Russia intends

7:29

to do it and how quickly? That's

7:33

really unclear and I think that there's

7:35

a lot of speculation even about exactly what

7:37

this weapon might be. It could be a

7:40

nuclear powered anti-satellite

7:42

device that blows out satellites, but

7:45

just the nuclear powered. It

7:47

could be a nuclear weapon in

7:49

space that explodes and blows out

7:51

anything anywhere nearby. And

7:54

we don't know when this potential Russian weapon

7:56

is going to go up into orbit or

7:58

whether or not in fact ever really

8:00

will. But

8:05

what this does show a bit is

8:07

that it's a bit of a Hail

8:09

Mary by Russia, a way to try

8:11

to exert its influence in space at

8:14

a moment when Russia is actually a

8:16

declining power relative to the

8:18

other nations in the world. Just

8:21

explain that. How can Russia be a declining

8:23

power right now in space? Russia

8:26

is not launching nearly as

8:29

frequently as it had been,

8:31

and its whole infrastructure around

8:33

building new satellites is in

8:35

decline, particularly compared to

8:37

China, which is launching at a crazy

8:40

pace right now and putting up all

8:42

kinds of new commercial

8:44

communication systems, but also devices

8:46

that could become offensive weapons

8:48

against the United States. So

8:52

at the end of the day, when I

8:54

talk to people at the Pentagon, despite the

8:56

noise that Russia is making about potentially putting

8:59

a nuclear weapon in space, the

9:01

biggest threat to the United States in

9:03

space is actually China. What

9:08

do you think? I'm

9:17

Kevin Roos. And I'm Casey Newton. We're technology

9:20

reporters and the hosts of Hard Fork, a

9:22

show from The New York Times. A

9:24

hard fork is a programming term for when

9:26

you're building something that gets really screwed up.

9:28

So you take the entire thing, break it

9:30

and start over. And that's a

9:33

little bit what it feels like right now

9:35

in the tech industry, like these companies that

9:37

you and I have been writing about for

9:39

the past decade, they're all kind of struggling

9:41

to stay relevant. Yeah, I mean, a lot

9:43

of the energy and money in Silicon Valley

9:45

is shifting to totally new ideas, crypto, the

9:47

metaverse, AI, it feels like a real turning

9:50

point. And all this is happening

9:52

so fast. Some of it's so strange.

9:54

I just feel like I'm texting you

9:56

constantly. Like, what is this story? Explain

9:58

this to me. We're

10:00

going to talk about these stories. We're going

10:02

to bring in other journalists, newsmakers, whoever else

10:04

is involved in building this future to explain

10:06

to us what's changing and why it all

10:09

matters. Hard Fork from the

10:11

New York Times. Listen wherever you get

10:13

your podcasts. So

10:18

Eric, we started off talking about the threat

10:21

that it seemed Russia posed to the United

10:23

States because of its willingness

10:25

to potentially put a nuclear weapon in

10:27

space. Now you're saying that

10:29

for the US military, the real

10:31

threat in space is China. So

10:34

just explain that. China,

10:37

as of at least the

10:39

last decade, as part of

10:41

a overall significant surge in

10:43

its military capacity, space

10:46

has been an incredibly intense focus.

10:49

It has been launching at a

10:52

really rapid pace far ahead

10:54

of Russia. And it's

10:56

not only putting communication satellites up

10:58

there, but it's putting systems

11:00

that could potentially grab

11:03

onto move and disable

11:05

American military satellites.

11:08

Well, how does that work? I mean, how does something that they

11:10

launch into space grab onto an

11:13

American satellite? Well, in January 2022,

11:17

China put a satellite into space

11:19

that had an arm that

11:21

reached out and grabbed another satellite

11:24

that was there in

11:26

geosynchronous orbit and it dragged it

11:28

to a different location. So

11:33

basically they found a way to put a tow

11:35

truck up in space and showed

11:37

that if they wanted to, they can move any

11:39

satellite. That's right. They showed that

11:41

they had the ability to not only send

11:43

satellites up there, but to send trucks

11:46

that had the capacity to grab

11:48

onto maybe an enemy's surveillance

11:50

system and basically put it into a

11:52

dead zone. Another

11:56

thing that China did was in 2007, quite

12:00

a while ago, they launched a missile up to

12:02

about 530 miles, which is far into space, and

12:08

they destroyed another satellite that was

12:10

in orbit, and it created an

12:12

incredible cloud of space debris, the

12:14

largest amount of space debris ever

12:17

tracked. And it was

12:19

quite a worrisome thing for the United States to

12:21

see that China has the capacity to launch missiles

12:23

from the ground that would destroy satellites and blow

12:25

them up in low Earth orbit. Got it. So,

12:30

both examples that you described are much

12:32

more targeted than what Russia is contemplating,

12:35

you know, moving one satellite or using

12:37

a missile to take one out. But

12:40

the upshot is that China can

12:42

disrupt our eyes and ears in

12:45

space in a probably better, more

12:47

efficient way than Russia. And you're saying, given

12:49

how much stuff they put up in space,

12:51

they're more likely to already be able to

12:53

do it than Russia, which is still trying

12:55

to get to that point. Right.

12:57

I mean, the big difference between Russia and China

12:59

right now as a space threat is that China

13:03

is moving rapidly on both

13:05

offensive and defensive systems. China

13:08

is talking about building a state network of

13:10

13,000 satellites. That's,

13:13

I mean, on a scale that's just

13:15

completely outside of what Russia is attempting

13:17

to do. China is

13:19

investing a lot more money and it's moving much

13:22

faster right now to put new

13:24

systems in space. And those

13:26

systems are both going to threaten United

13:28

States satellites and also have a

13:30

kind of a surveillance that would

13:32

almost rival the United States. So

13:35

I want to understand where the

13:37

U.S. sits in all of this, because when it

13:39

comes to space, it feels like the

13:42

thing that would make the

13:44

U.S. military so anxious about

13:46

a rival's advancements in space is

13:48

if we couldn't match them

13:51

or we couldn't properly respond to them. So

13:53

what is the U.S. readiness right

13:55

now to basically match or fight

13:58

back against whatever Russia and

14:00

China are doing in space. Everyone

14:02

I talk to from the Pentagon

14:04

and also former Pentagon officials all

14:08

agree that the United States maintains

14:10

clear dominance in space. It

14:12

has more satellites for surveillance and

14:14

missile targeting and missile defense than any

14:16

other nation. Both the United

14:18

States and China have moved

14:21

in a really rapid way into

14:23

a new domain. And that

14:25

is low earth orbit. That's

14:28

about no greater than 1200 miles off

14:31

the surface of the earth. And

14:33

it's the area where SpaceX has put

14:35

more than 5,000 satellites for its Starlink

14:38

system. That's the focus right now

14:40

is the flood dead zone with

14:42

lots of relatively cheap, quickly

14:45

manufactured, easy to replace

14:47

satellite systems. And the United States wants

14:49

to put at least 1,000 satellites into

14:52

low earth orbit for its military purposes

14:54

in the next several years. Among

14:58

the many concerns that the American military

15:00

has is that China is moving

15:02

so rapidly right now to build out its

15:04

own system that unless the

15:06

United States really accelerates what it's doing, that

15:08

soon China could be close to matching what

15:11

the US has in space. And

15:13

that China now has enough

15:15

surveillance capacity in space to

15:18

target American military capacity in

15:20

any type of a conflict.

15:25

I mean, imagine the scenario where China decides to

15:28

invade Taiwan and the

15:30

United States decides that it's gonna help defend

15:33

Taiwan. If all of

15:35

our military assets are immediately visible to

15:37

China, they could be targeted even

15:39

before they got to the Taiwan Straits or

15:41

even before they got within range to

15:44

have a military engagement. And

15:46

simultaneously, China's offensive

15:49

space weapons were disabling American satellites

15:52

so that the United States could no longer

15:54

communicate. That's the fear that the military

15:56

has right now as both of those things could suddenly

15:59

happen. if the United States

16:01

is not building up its own space

16:03

capacity and its space

16:05

weapons to disable Chinese satellites.

16:17

God, so the worry, and it's very specific,

16:19

is that if China can achieve the same

16:22

level of military prowess in

16:24

space as the US, then the

16:26

US loses any power it has

16:28

to deter China from doing something

16:31

like invade Taiwan, because we know,

16:33

and they know that we know,

16:35

that they can basically shut

16:38

down our systems before and during that invasion

16:40

and make it impossible for us to stop

16:42

them. It would severely

16:44

degrade military capacity if they could

16:47

wipe out a good share of our satellites, and

16:50

they're racing to try to avoid that. So,

16:53

Eric, what does it look like for

16:55

the US to race to avoid China

16:57

meeting America's capabilities where they currently are?

17:00

I mean, how does the US military

17:03

do that? Obviously, it would need to

17:05

either slow China down, or

17:08

the US itself would need to speed

17:10

up and race ahead of China.

17:13

There's two primary things that are happening right now.

17:16

One is to build out

17:18

US offensive systems to disable

17:20

Chinese or Russian satellites. So

17:23

that includes jamming systems.

17:25

They just signed a new contract

17:27

to build new devices that could

17:29

jam Chinese or Russian satellites and

17:31

disrupt their signals. Laser systems

17:34

that could destroy satellites from the

17:36

ground or from space. And

17:38

also, other systems that they just like the Chinese

17:40

that built a tug in space, the

17:43

United States potentially is gonna build its

17:45

own systems that could grab and disable

17:47

other satellites in space. The

17:49

second piece of this plank is

17:52

to build out a massive investment in

17:54

space capacity by the United States to

17:56

build a whole new architecture.

18:00

in low Earth orbit with hundreds,

18:02

if not more than a thousand

18:04

satellites that would be so many,

18:06

so redundant, that you

18:08

couldn't effectively disable the

18:10

United States military capacity. Because even if you were

18:12

to shoot out a certain number

18:15

of them, there would be yet more of them. Sort

18:17

of like Starlink right now, the SpaceX Starlink, if

18:19

it loses a certain number of its 5,800 satellites,

18:23

they just switch and they rebuild the

18:25

network among the remaining satellites. Basically,

18:27

everyone knows that the next time there's

18:29

a major war with a major power,

18:31

that there's gonna be offensive activity in

18:34

space. And both sides are preparing for

18:36

that. Wow, I mean

18:38

what you're clearly describing is

18:40

a new space race. A

18:42

space race that's about which of

18:45

these three global superpowers can

18:47

take out the other satellites and

18:50

use their satellites offensively and

18:52

defensively to achieve military supremacy.

18:56

Yeah, that's right. I think that there's a new space

18:58

race that's underway right now, and it

19:00

is more intense than at any time

19:02

since really the 1960s when the United

19:04

States and Russia were testing weapons in

19:06

space for the first time. And

19:09

it is very intense, and the increase

19:11

in spending on space right now radically

19:13

exceeds anything that the Navy or the

19:16

traditional air force or the Army is

19:18

doing. More dollars are pouring into space

19:20

defense right now as a percentage increase.

19:23

It's more than any other part of

19:25

the military. Eric,

19:27

this makes me wonder how much

19:29

the US in its efforts to do those

19:31

two things you just described out

19:34

in space is ultimately reliant

19:36

on contractors, the private sector,

19:38

and in particular Elon Musk,

19:40

right? This guy who has

19:42

put so many satellites up

19:44

in the sky, but who's

19:46

mercurial and unique to

19:48

put it diplomatically. So is the

19:50

US plan for staying ahead of

19:53

both Russia and China to ultimately

19:55

put more and more power in

19:57

the hands of Elon Musk? Right

20:01

now, there's no question that SpaceX

20:03

and Elon Musk plays an extraordinarily

20:05

dominant role in the ability

20:07

to launch to orbit. The

20:10

military is excessively reliant on

20:12

SpaceX. At

20:15

this moment, it's an uncomfortable domination

20:18

by SpaceX. Of the 9,400

20:20

objects in orbit right now, 5,235 of them are SpaceX Starlink satellites.

20:28

Almost all of the satellites in orbit from

20:31

any nation in the world are Elon

20:33

Musk. But the Department of Defense realizes

20:36

that it can't be so reliant upon

20:38

one company for launch. And so, the

20:40

Pentagon is also signing contracts with small

20:42

launch companies to quickly be

20:45

able to put military satellites into space with

20:47

just a few days notice. And

20:49

so, there's a lot of money that's

20:51

being spent to build out this capacity.

20:53

Right. And what you're really saying is

20:55

that this new space race is going

20:57

to come with and foster

21:00

a new space military

21:02

industrial complex that's going to be

21:04

the recipient of many

21:06

billions, maybe trillions of dollars

21:09

in taxpayer money. That's right.

21:11

I mean, the United States is already

21:13

in the middle of an incredible explosion

21:15

in the commercial space industry because

21:17

of the number of commercial launches is growing

21:20

at a really crazy rate. In

21:22

the entire world right now, there

21:24

are approximately 10,000 objects in orbit. And

21:28

within the next 10 years, the

21:30

expectation is going to be something like 25,000 satellites

21:34

in orbit. So, there's a huge

21:36

boom right now in the space

21:38

industry globally. So,

21:40

Eric, when I step back, it feels

21:43

like the inevitable outcome of this new

21:45

space race, weapons space

21:47

race, is a very

21:50

potentially expensive version of what

21:52

we already have, which is

21:54

that famous concept of mutually

21:56

assured destruction. Right. It's this

21:58

idea that all All three of

22:00

these countries have nuclear weapons and

22:02

it keeps us all in check. Russia, China,

22:04

the US. We don't attack each

22:06

other directly because we all fear that

22:09

the other country attacked would

22:11

fire back in obliterating ways that would

22:13

never make it worth it. And

22:15

so isn't that kind of where we're

22:18

headed with this battle over space? All

22:21

three countries are going to be spending a

22:23

tremendous amount of money eventually to reach some

22:26

kind of loose parody that

22:29

prevents us all from doing something

22:31

really horrible to the other country. I

22:34

mean, I sort of reject your premise and

22:36

I think that in fact the

22:38

thing that the United States is concerned about

22:40

is it has had such a massive advantage

22:42

in space for so long and it's been

22:44

so central to our global

22:47

military supremacy. And

22:50

suddenly if you have another nation

22:52

that's kind of walking in and

22:54

becoming your rival in that environment,

22:56

I mean that's really worrisome to the

22:59

American military and they're determined to prevent

23:01

China from matching the United

23:03

States military capacity in space. You're

23:06

saying this is not about

23:08

the three countries ever achieving parody.

23:10

It's about the US ensuring that

23:13

parody is never achieved

23:15

because if it's achieved then everything

23:18

changes. Right. I think

23:21

that basically the Pentagon wants to

23:23

ensure that it can maintain dominance

23:26

in space and not just parody

23:29

because space-based dominance is so vital

23:31

to the way that the United

23:33

States military has operated for years

23:35

now. Well,

23:47

Eric, thank you very much. We

23:49

appreciate it. Thanks for having me. We'll

24:00

be right back. Here

24:13

is what else he needs to

24:15

that day: on Tuesday, President Biden

24:17

some and house and Senate leaders

24:19

to the White House in an

24:21

attempt to avoid the latest potential

24:23

government shutdown. That

24:25

shut down, which could begin at

24:28

midnight on Saturday would be the

24:30

result of strident amounts from house

24:32

republicans who have attached right wing

24:35

policies to be sick spending bill.

24:37

That has made them impossible to pass

24:39

in the senate. We believe that

24:42

we can get to agreement on these

24:44

issues and prevent a government shutdown and

24:46

that's our first a responsibility. As he

24:48

left the White House republican House Speaker,

24:50

my chances expressed optimism that a shutdown

24:53

would be averted and we have been

24:55

work a good faith around the clock

24:57

every single day for months and and

24:59

weeks and over the last several days

25:01

to fight literally around the clock to

25:04

get that job done. And

25:09

in a rebuke to President

25:11

Biden, more than a hundred

25:14

thousand democratic voters in Michigan

25:16

cast protest ballast that declared

25:18

themselves and committed to express

25:21

disapproval of the President's handling

25:23

of the war in Gaza.

25:25

That number far exceeded the

25:28

goal of ten thousand uncommitted

25:30

balance that's activists headset for

25:33

themselves and could spell trouble

25:35

for Biden in the general

25:37

election. Missing

25:39

it is a Cease Wednesday.

25:42

We're biden. Defeated Donald Trump

25:44

in Twenty Twenty. Cities

25:47

episode was produced only concern

25:49

themselves and and Carlos Prieto

25:51

with help from we reached

25:54

and mood Cd it was

25:56

edited by let's see Dl.

25:58

Anything or with. music by

26:00

Marion Lozano, Dan Powell,

26:02

and Pat McCusker, and

26:05

was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Our

26:08

theme music is by Jim Runberg and

26:10

Ben Landfork on Wunderly. That's

26:16

it for The Daily. I'm

26:18

Michael Boboro. See you

26:20

tomorrow.