0:00

This podcast is supported by USA

0:02

for UNHCR.

0:34

From The New York Times, I'm Sabrina Tavernesi,

0:37

and this is The Daily.

0:44

The posturing between the US and China has been

0:46

intensifying in recent weeks, especially

0:49

when it comes to Taiwan. Today,

0:52

my colleague Edward Wong on why

0:55

China is so fixated on Taiwan, and

0:58

how the US got in the middle

1:00

of it.

1:03

It's Monday, April 17th.

1:08

So Ed, Taiwan has been

1:10

back in the news again for the

1:12

past few weeks. Tell us why.

1:15

Well, Sabrina, we saw tensions spike this month

1:17

over Taiwan. Earlier this month,

1:20

the president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, stopped

1:23

in Los Angeles on her way back to Taiwan

1:25

from Central America.

1:27

I want to thank Speaker McCarthy for

1:29

his warm hospitality. She

1:32

went to the Reagan Library in Southern California

1:34

and met with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The

1:37

friendship between the people of Taiwan and America

1:39

is a matter of profound importance to

1:42

the free world.

1:43

This infuriated the People's Republic of China.

1:46

Today, China is condemning

1:48

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy for hosting the

1:51

president of Taiwan at the Reagan Library.

1:53

We don't want to see any form of diplomacy,

1:56

even informal diplomacy, taking place

1:58

between Taiwanese officials

1:59

and U.S. officials. And they

2:02

announced the start of military exercises around

2:04

Taiwan. On the Taiwan Strait, China's

2:06

Shandong aircraft carrier launched 80 fighter

2:09

jet missions and 40 helicopter

2:11

flights. This is the latest in the

2:13

kind of surge in tensions that happens

2:16

periodically and that has taken place

2:18

in recent years. The drills came with an

2:20

ominous warning.

2:21

China's military is ready

2:23

to fight.

2:26

Right, it feels like we're in this cycle where Taiwan

2:29

does something pretty minor and

2:32

China reacts.

2:33

And this brings

2:36

up a question a lot of us here

2:38

at The Daily have had, which

2:40

is

2:41

why is China so fixated

2:43

on Taiwan? Well, this is a conflict

2:46

that dates back a century and

2:48

it permeates Chinese national and foreign policy

2:50

and the question of Chinese nationalism.

2:53

And there are a lot of ways that you could tell the story,

2:55

but there's a handful of moments that really define

2:57

it. And I would start with what many

2:59

people see as the root of the modern fixation

3:02

and that arose in the late 1940s. Once

3:05

again, prices comes to China, who's

3:08

teaming millions now ask a single question, what

3:11

does the future hold? So at

3:13

that time, there was a civil war raging

3:15

in China between the Nationalist Party,

3:17

also known as the Guomindang and the Communist.

3:20

In the spring of 1947, the communists exploded

3:22

in a series of quick offenses which left

3:25

the Nationalist garrisons in Manchuria dazed

3:27

and confused. The Nationalists have

3:29

been ruling China for many years under an authoritarian

3:32

system

3:33

and their leader is Chiang Kai-shek. Now,

3:35

many Chinese saw this party

3:38

as corrupt and as serving

3:40

only the interests of the elite

3:42

and they were eager to have a new type

3:44

of government. And at that time,

3:46

Mao Zedong was leading the

3:49

communists and the communist army in

3:51

a fight against the nationalists. Now,

3:54

the communist leader Mao Zedong is

3:56

winning one victory after another.

3:58

And many people in the countryside... as well as

4:00

some students, intellectuals, and workers

4:03

in the cities, were joining his cause and

4:05

willing to fight against the nationalists. Red

4:07

morale was high, and above all,

4:10

they knew what they were fighting for. The

4:12

Civil War raged on for years,

4:14

and eventually the Communist Army got

4:17

the upper hand. Mao Zedong declared,

4:19

the Chinese people's revolutionary war

4:22

has now reached a turning point. And

4:24

in October of 1949, Mao

4:26

Zedong proclaims the founding of the People's

4:28

Republic of China in Beijing. The Reds

4:30

obtains the face of China and brought the

4:32

world's largest country within the Communist

4:35

Empire. And so the nationalists

4:37

had to flee,

4:39

and they left mainland China and went

4:41

to the island of Taiwan off the southeast

4:43

coast of China. General Chiang Kai-shek

4:45

returns to power as president of Nationalist

4:47

China. He takes office in exile

4:50

at Formosa, island fortress, 90 miles

4:52

from the Chinese mainland. And then once they

4:55

settled down on the island in 1949, they

4:58

went about

5:00

refashioning their government and

5:02

their society on the island. And

5:04

they claimed that they were still the legitimate

5:07

government of China. After their

5:09

disastrous defeat at the hands of the Communists, the

5:11

nationalists have started anew from

5:14

scratch.

5:19

And what did that look like, Ed?

5:21

So the government that the nationalists set up on Taiwan

5:24

looked very much like the government

5:26

that they had been running on mainland China. For

5:28

example, on Taiwan, they had officials

5:31

who they said were leaders of provinces

5:34

in China.

5:35

They had different offices running

5:38

what they said were places like Mongolia

5:40

and Tibet in China. And

5:43

they also had some

5:45

of the most sacred symbols of the

5:47

old China. They had brought treasures from

5:49

the Forbidden City, accumulated

5:52

by previous dynasties, and brought

5:54

them to Taiwan. So

5:57

both in governance and in culture,

6:00

They were saying that they were essentially

6:02

China. Like Taiwan in

6:04

its own telling was a fully fledged

6:06

version of China in exile, right

6:09

down to the most sacred objects

6:11

of Chinese history. That's right Sabrina.

6:14

And this is very important. They said their aspiration

6:16

would be to one day depose the communists

6:19

and reestablish control over

6:21

China.

6:23

So you can see why communist China

6:25

would be annoyed by this, right? Like

6:27

a renegade China that effectively

6:29

lost the civil war sets up shop

6:32

right next door and claims that it is the real

6:34

China.

6:35

Well Sabrina, they're more than just annoyed.

6:37

Mao sees this as an important

6:39

unfinished part of the civil war and

6:42

he has intentions to conquer Taiwan

6:44

and take it back into China. Okay,

6:47

so effectively you have two

6:50

different parties saying that they

6:52

are the real China and each side

6:54

says it wants to take the other side. That's

6:57

right. And how does the world

7:00

handle this weird situation of

7:02

two Chinas? Well some

7:05

nations decide to recognize the People's

7:07

Republic of China, but the United

7:09

States actually supports

7:11

Taiwan as the legitimate government

7:13

of China. And why

7:16

does the U.S. do that? Well

7:18

at this point the Americans were engaged in the

7:20

Cold War. They're trying everything they

7:22

could to hold back the Soviet Union

7:25

and contain the spread of communism in

7:27

the world. So they didn't want to recognize

7:30

the Chinese communists as the legitimate government.

7:33

And so they decide that Taiwan,

7:35

even though it's an authoritarian government, should

7:37

be the legitimate ruler of China. And

7:40

this U.S. support of Taiwan continued for

7:43

many years. But

7:45

then in the 1960s something started

7:47

to change.

7:48

Remember the Cold War was very complicated. And

7:50

in Southeast Asia, the Americans were fighting the war

7:53

in Vietnam against the Vietnamese communists

7:56

who were fighting the war in Vietnam against the

7:58

Vietnamese communists. were backed

8:00

by the Soviet Union and by China.

8:03

And by 1971, the war was going poorly

8:06

for the United States. And President

8:08

Nixon and his aides thought that they could improve

8:11

diplomatic ties with China, that maybe

8:13

they could get the Chinese communists to withdraw

8:15

their support from the North Vietnamese

8:18

and the Soviets,

8:19

and that would hasten the end of the war in Vietnam.

8:22

So basically swallowed their dislike for

8:24

one communist regime in an effort to contain

8:27

the other and on the chance

8:29

that it might end this disastrous war they were

8:31

engaged with.

8:32

That's exactly right. And in

8:34

addition to the urgent problems of the Vietnam

8:37

War, Nixon and his aides were

8:39

also beginning to recognize the potential power

8:41

of China. And they think that the

8:43

country could be an important partner if

8:45

they take the right diplomatic steps.

8:50

So what does Nixon do?

8:53

In 1971, Nixon

8:56

sent his aide Henry Kissinger

8:58

on a secret trip to China to

9:00

start having talks with Chinese officials

9:03

on reopening diplomatic ties.

9:06

Shortly after Kissinger's secret visit,

9:08

Nixon announces that he

9:10

himself will make a trip to Beijing. There

9:13

can be no stable and enduring peace

9:16

without the participation of

9:18

the People's Republic of China and

9:20

its 750 million people. And

9:23

in 1972, he travels there. East

9:27

meets West as a handshake

9:29

bridges 16,000 miles and 22 years of hostility. He

9:34

goes to the Great Wall. The president

9:36

said one would have to conclude that this

9:39

is, in fact, a Great Wall

9:41

built by great people.

9:43

And he speaks with Mao Zedong. At

9:45

the summit, face to face, two

9:48

leaders who direct the destiny of one out

9:50

of three persons on the earth.

9:52

It's a huge, earth-shaking event

9:55

in diplomatic relations around the world. Nixon

10:00

here is switching

10:02

sides, I mean, effectively

10:04

reversing decades of American

10:06

foreign policy.

10:08

Yes. And this begins a new

10:10

chapter in U.S.-China relations

10:12

and in world diplomacy. And

10:15

the actions of the U.S. government that began

10:17

under Nixon culminate in 1979. The

10:21

United States of America and the People's Republic

10:23

of China have agreed to recognize

10:26

each other and to establish

10:28

diplomatic relations as of

10:30

January the 1st, 1979. When

10:33

President Carter formally

10:35

establishes diplomatic recognition

10:39

of the communist-run government in Beijing

10:41

as the legitimate government of China. The

10:44

government of the United States of America acknowledges

10:47

the Chinese position that

10:48

there is but one China and

10:51

Taiwan is part of China. And

10:53

he officially cuts off diplomatic ties with

10:55

Taiwan. Okay, so at

10:58

this point, communist China gets what it

11:00

wants, right? Well not exactly, Sabrina.

11:03

President Carter did give China a big part

11:05

of what it wanted, which was diplomatic

11:08

recognition of its government. But

11:11

Carter also put the question of Taiwan

11:13

aside. Beijing wanted

11:16

the U.S. to acknowledge that Taiwan was

11:18

ruled by China. But

11:20

what Carter did was a very complicated evasive

11:22

maneuver.

11:26

He said in his own words that the U.S. acknowledges

11:29

China's position, that there's one China

11:32

and that Taiwan is part of it. But that

11:34

doesn't mean that the U.S. endorsed that

11:36

position.

11:37

Carter was explicitly supporting

11:40

Beijing's idea that it was the ruler

11:42

of Taiwan now. It just said

11:45

it knew how Beijing felt about the situation.

11:48

And that's the foundation of

11:50

what the U.S. calls its one China

11:52

policy. So this is a

11:54

real act of political jujitsu on the part

11:56

of the United States, right? I mean Carter

11:58

saying to Beijing.

11:59

We recognize that you think

12:02

Taiwan is part of China. We

12:04

hear you, but we're not saying

12:06

that we agree.

12:08

That's exactly right. So Carter

12:11

left the U.S. government's position on Taiwan's

12:13

status intentionally big,

12:15

and that would have far-reaching consequences

12:18

in the coming decades.

12:27

We'll

12:31

be right back.

13:00

Hi, I'm Claire Tennis-Getter.

13:03

I'm

13:10

one of the many names you hear in the

13:12

list of credits on The Daily every week. A

13:15

big part of my job as a producer is

13:17

talking to my colleagues, to New York Times reporters,

13:20

to get their expertise on the news. But

13:22

we also want to explore the human side of the news.

13:24

And so another big part of my job is talking to people

13:27

about how they're experiencing what's happening in the world.

13:30

That can mean walking up to people on the street, making

13:32

cold calls, and spending months making

13:34

sure we represent all sides of a story.

13:37

Whether it's about what shapes

13:38

our political identities or how we're

13:40

coping with crises, we always feel like

13:42

there's something to learn from these conversations. We

13:45

often hear from listeners that these types

13:47

of stories are what makes The Daily special, and

13:49

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you haven't subscribed to The New York Times, you

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can do that at nytimes.com

13:58

slash subscribe.

14:00

And thanks.

14:02

So, Ed, you said that the U.S. left

14:05

its position toward Taiwan ambiguous

14:08

intentionally. How does that

14:10

play out?

14:11

So when Carter makes this announcement, formally

14:14

establishing diplomatic ties with China,

14:16

not everyone in the U.S. is enthusiastic

14:19

about it. And some lawmakers in Congress

14:22

are not happy with the recognition of Beijing

14:24

and this loss for Taiwan. They

14:26

want to protect Taiwan in case the Chinese Communist

14:29

Party ever tried to make a move against it.

14:32

So in 1939, the same year that the Carter

14:34

administration formally establishes diplomatic

14:36

ties with China, Congress passes

14:39

this legislation called the Taiwan Relations

14:41

Act. It essentially commits the

14:43

U.S. to protecting Taiwan in certain

14:46

ways without saying explicitly

14:48

that its military would come to Taiwan's defense.

14:52

This act says that the U.S. must give weapons

14:54

of a defensive nature

14:56

to Taiwan. It says

14:58

that

14:59

it must maintain a capacity

15:01

to defend Taiwan if there's coercion.

15:04

And it says that it will work

15:06

to make sure that any friction

15:08

or tensions over Taiwan are resolved peacefully.

15:11

Doesn't that seem to run counter

15:13

to the U.S. diplomatic efforts toward

15:15

China? Because China and the U.S.

15:18

have just spent the entire decade of the 1970s hammering

15:20

out diplomatic

15:22

relations, right? And now

15:25

if China takes any military action

15:27

against Taiwan, this new condition

15:30

basically says that the U.S. might

15:32

take action to defend Taiwan.

15:35

That's right. And it creates this deep

15:37

mistrust between the rulers in Beijing

15:40

on the one hand and the U.S. and Taiwan

15:42

on the other hand. And in

15:44

the coming decades, something happens within Taiwan

15:47

that makes China even more upset. So

15:50

remember, the original nationalist leaders in Taiwan

15:52

had the singular focus on retaking

15:55

China. And these newer

15:57

generations of people in Taiwan who

15:59

were born on the U.S. the island who had never been

16:01

to China and who had no interest in

16:03

claiming ownership of China. They

16:06

were really more interested in their identity as Taiwanese

16:08

people and in governing themselves in Taiwan.

16:12

And in the 1990s, there was this ground soul

16:14

of support throughout the island for

16:16

the leaders to install a new political system.

16:19

People wanted a democracy and they wanted

16:21

multiple parties and general elections.

16:25

So up until this point, Taiwan has basically

16:28

seen its future as connected to China.

16:31

But now Taiwan, in a way,

16:33

is striking out on its own, which is

16:36

probably very threatening to China, right? Right.

16:39

And of course, China is watching this very carefully.

16:42

And this push for democracy culminates in

16:44

the first democratic presidential election

16:47

in 1996.

16:49

For people in Taiwan, this is their proudest

16:52

moment. The Taiwanese elected

16:54

their first native foreign president, Li Dengue.

16:57

President Li swept a victory with almost 54 percent

17:00

of the vote. Communist China is trembling

17:02

because of our democracy, Li Dengue

17:04

tells the crowd. He calls China's

17:07

aging leaders lockheads.

17:09

And his decisive victory and leadership style

17:12

sent a message to Beijing. He

17:14

and the Taiwanese people were saying that while

17:16

Taiwan wasn't going to openly claim to

17:19

be an independent country, it would push

17:21

the boundaries and edge away from this idea of

17:23

one China.

17:25

So how does China react? Well, of course,

17:27

the communist leaders are anxious. On

17:30

the Chinese mainland, the communist leadership

17:32

is not just fuming over the democratic

17:34

frenzy on Taiwan. They've literally

17:36

gone ballistic. Their

17:39

biggest action came in the months before

17:41

and then around the election,

17:43

when China took a very aggressive step

17:45

and shot missiles into the waters around Taiwan.

17:48

China's military exercises serve

17:50

notice to Taiwan that independence

17:53

is not an option. And then

17:55

the US sees this and it responds

17:58

by sending warships to the area around the

17:59

Taiwan to tell Beijing to back off.

18:02

Our purpose in being here is to demonstrate the

18:05

presence and commitment of the United

18:07

States to peace and stability in the region.

18:09

With two U.S. naval battle

18:12

groups now in the South China Sea, the

18:14

war of nerves intensifies.

18:16

So this is that U.S. policy

18:19

of look but don't touch. Right.

18:21

And some people say that this moment was

18:23

the first big test in this three way dynamic

18:26

that the U.S. established with its policies

18:29

on Taiwan.

18:30

And this is a type of action reaction involving

18:33

military forces that becomes

18:35

a defining pattern in relations in the coming

18:37

years. Right. The pattern is that

18:39

China has this unfinished business with

18:41

Taiwan and it's frustrated by

18:44

the role of the United States. And each

18:46

country is responding to the others

18:48

moves with Taiwan in the middle.

18:51

That's right. And this sense of impending

18:53

conflict has gotten a lot higher in

18:55

recent years, especially because

18:58

we've seen a more aggressive leader emerge in

19:00

China. Xi Jinping, the

19:02

current leader of China, has made some

19:04

very bold statements on Taiwan. After

19:07

he took power in 2012, he

19:10

said that the problem of Taiwan cannot

19:12

be passed on from generation

19:14

to generation. And

19:16

for some people, that suggests that Xi

19:19

might make some bold and decisive move

19:21

on Taiwan in the near future

19:23

to resolve that issue. And

19:26

then in the U.S., you

19:28

also have this transition from President Obama

19:31

to President Trump, who is a lot more confrontational

19:34

with China. Right. Trump campaigned

19:36

on how he was going to be tough on China. That's

19:39

exactly right. So, for example,

19:41

after Donald Trump won the election 2016,

19:44

officials who worked under President Trump

19:47

took a much more assertive position

19:50

on China

19:51

and they really framed U.S.-China relations

19:54

as an intense competition

19:57

and pushing out any room for cooperation

19:59

between the two By

20:01

the end of the Trump administration, they were

20:04

trying to figure out ways to strengthen Taiwan

20:07

and the government there as a bulwark against

20:09

China. In other words, China

20:11

and the United States are both

20:14

more aggressive in this moment. That's exactly

20:16

right. And we've seen the Biden administration

20:18

continue to take assertive actions around

20:21

the Taiwan Strait. Biden

20:23

officials have continued sending warships through the

20:25

Strait as a signal to Beijing.

20:29

And President Biden himself has said

20:31

four times now that he will

20:33

have the US military defend Taiwan

20:35

if China were to try and take military action

20:38

against the island.

20:40

So at this point in the story, it almost seems like

20:42

the US is just as fixated on Taiwan

20:44

as China is. Why?

20:47

Well, I think there's several reasons for that, Sabrina.

20:50

Some US national security officials

20:53

think Taiwan is an important

20:55

strategic point to

20:57

contain China. So for example,

21:00

they want to make sure that the Chinese military cannot

21:02

extend its reach beyond

21:05

Taiwan and into other island chains

21:08

in the far Pacific. And they think

21:10

that as long as Taiwan remains autonomous

21:12

and has robust military forces, it'll

21:15

be difficult for China to do that. So

21:18

an important check on China's military

21:20

power. Exactly.

21:22

And US officials also have begun

21:25

to realize the importance of Taiwan

21:27

in the global economy.

21:29

At this point, Taiwan has the

21:31

world's most advanced semiconductor industry.

21:34

And as you know, these chips that their companies

21:37

make are used in everything

21:39

from appliances in our household

21:41

to the most advanced military systems

21:44

that the United States

21:45

and other countries deploy

21:48

around the world. So the US

21:50

sees the Chinese semiconductor

21:52

industry as something that must protect

21:55

and it views it as a sector that

21:57

China cannot get its hands on. So

22:01

Ed, when we started this conversation over

22:03

Taiwan, the big question

22:05

was, who was the real China?

22:09

But what you've laid out here is really

22:12

much broader than that, right? I mean, Taiwan

22:15

has come to represent much

22:17

more for the US and China. It's

22:20

really come to symbolize this battle between the

22:22

two superpowers, over military

22:25

power, over the economy.

22:27

I mean, it really feels like

22:29

it contains the fate of the future

22:32

of the world in a lot of ways. Sabrina,

22:34

when I talk to US officials here in Washington,

22:37

they also speak about it in these very

22:39

high stakes terms. And some

22:41

of them are openly speculating on

22:43

whether the US and China will

22:46

end up fighting a war over Taiwan

22:48

in the coming years. But

22:50

no one wants that war.

22:52

When you look at the actions that the US and China

22:54

are taking, you

22:55

can tell that they want to make sure they

22:57

don't cross that line. They'll move up to

23:00

the edge, but they're not willing to take

23:02

that next step. And where

23:04

does all of this leave Taiwan?

23:08

Well, of course, the Taiwanese don't want war over

23:10

their island. So even today, you

23:12

see Taiwan's leaders trying to very carefully

23:15

calibrate their actions. We saw

23:17

that recently when House Speaker Kevin

23:19

McCarthy met with President Tsai Ing-wen in Southern

23:22

California. President Tsai could

23:24

have invited him to Taiwan,

23:26

but she chose to meet with him on US soil

23:28

instead. I suspect that she

23:30

knew that Beijing would see this as a less provocative

23:33

action. And she appears to have been right.

23:35

We saw how the Chinese reacted.

23:37

They sent warships and airplanes around the Taiwan

23:40

Strait. But that was a much less

23:42

intense military action than other

23:44

things they've done in the recent past.

23:47

So Taiwan was kind of just testing

23:49

the line, right? Engaging how far

23:51

it could go without provoking

23:53

the full fury of China.

23:55

Yes. And I think President Tsai's

23:57

calculation is an example of the tightrope.

24:00

that Taiwanese leaders and citizens have walked

24:02

for decades. It's

24:06

interesting because I would think that Taiwan

24:09

would be in a pretty vulnerable position.

24:11

But you're talking about Taiwan as

24:14

having agency. Yeah, in many ways.

24:16

It's counterintuitive, Sabrina. Many

24:19

people think of Taiwan as this tiny

24:21

island of 23 million people living

24:24

in the shadow of China. And

24:26

it's true that Beijing has taken steps

24:28

to diplomatically isolate them from much

24:30

of the world. But the Taiwanese

24:33

see themselves as being much more than

24:35

a pawn in a geopolitical contest between

24:37

superpowers. And despite

24:39

all the pressure on them, they've managed

24:41

to build an important economy over

24:43

the years. They've created a new government

24:46

and they put democracy into practice. And

24:49

they managed to avoid armed conflict over their

24:51

island through all these decades.

24:52

So when I talk to Taiwanese officials

24:55

and citizens these days, many of them tell me that the

24:57

fate of the island is really in their hands.

25:05

Ed, thank you. Thanks, Sabrina. It's

25:08

always great to talk to you. We'll

25:20

be right back.

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25:58

Here's what else you should know today. Over

26:01

the weekend, Sudan descended into

26:04

violence, with street battles raging

26:06

for control of Khartoum, the capital. Four

26:10

years ago, Sudan was an inspiration

26:12

to the world when its citizens toppled

26:14

a widely detested ruler, Omar

26:16

al-Bashir. The revolution faltered 18

26:19

months ago when the military seized

26:21

power in a coup. The

26:23

military was supposed to hand back power to

26:26

civilian leaders this week. Instead,

26:29

two generals, each commanding

26:31

different factions of the armed forces, are

26:34

now battling each other for control

26:36

of the country. Scores of people

26:38

have been killed in the fighting and hundreds

26:41

injured.

26:44

Today's episode was produced by Stella

26:46

Tan, Mary Wilson and Shannon Lin,

26:48

with help from Luke Van Der Ploeg. It

26:51

was edited by MJ Davis-Lynn. Checked

26:54

by Susan Lee. Contains original

26:56

music by Dan Powell, Marion

26:58

Lozano and Rowan Nemestow.

27:01

It was engineered by Chris Wood. Our

27:04

theme music is by Jim Runberg and Ben Landsberg

27:06

of Wonderly. Special thanks

27:09

to Amy Chin.

27:21

That's it for The Daily.

27:32

of

27:53

self-discovery from wherever you are. Visit

27:56

BetterHelp.com slash New York Times

27:59

today to get 10th-

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your first month. That's BetterHelp.

28:03

H-E-L-P dot com slash New

28:05

York Times.