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Welcome, everybody. Hope you had a good

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weekend, a good Father's Day to those

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who celebrated. We have

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a major change to the

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top 2024 election forecast. It's

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the 538 election forecast and we're going to look at

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it in a moment. And while the

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change we have is major, we

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also are very quickly going to learn

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that you and I are not going

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to be doing this every single day

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from now until November, because the changes,

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while monumental, also are a very limited

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predictive value. So the news is that

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after last week, 538 launched

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their first 2024 presidential projection

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forecast for this election. And

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it had Joe Biden winning

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by something like a 52 to 48. You

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know, out of 100 simulations, Biden wins 52.

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We now have a reversal in

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which as of last night, it was

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Trump, 51 Biden, 49, and it is

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now Trump, 50 Biden, 49. Now

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before we go further, you might say, hold on, that

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doesn't add up to 100. Does that mean that there

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might be some third party winner?

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Does a third party candidate have a shot

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at getting to 270 electoral votes? And

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the answer is, of course, no, there is

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a roughly one in 100 chance. It's

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actually they say it's less than one in

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100 that nobody gets to

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270. There are a

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couple of scenarios you can look at that

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are 269 to 269. It's

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not very likely all four of those

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scenarios together represent less than 1 percent

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of the totality of possible outcomes. So

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what are the takeaways here? The

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main takeaway, the primary takeaway

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is, David, we're going to pat you on

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the back, everybody, and give you an attaboy.

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You've been saying I'm now I'm now

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doing third person. I've been saying for

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months.