0:01

NPR. This

0:12

is the Indicator from Planet Money. I'm Waylon

0:14

Wong here with Adrian Ma. Hello! Hi!

0:17

And back from parental leave, making

0:20

his triumphant return to the Indicator stage,

0:22

the one and only, Planet Money's Kenny

0:24

Malone. It's true. I'm

0:26

short on sleep, but long on at

0:29

least one indicator, I guess. I have a good indicator,

0:31

I think. I think. We'll see. We'll be the

0:33

judge of that, Kenny. Well, I hope

0:35

you have been crushing the caffeine, Kenny, because

0:37

we are about to do Indicators

0:40

of the Week! Weee! That

0:44

is right. We talk about fascinating numbers

0:46

from the news. This week

0:48

we got indicators about oil gluts, big

0:51

bucks for Ukraine, and fewer

0:54

bucks at Starbucks. All the

0:56

bucks. I'm going back on leave. That's too many

0:58

bucks. Welcome back!

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FDIC. Terms apply. Indicators

2:16

of the week, Adrian, you are up first.

2:19

My indicator is eight

2:21

million barrels of oil. As

2:24

in by the year 2030, the

2:26

global supply of oils are projected

2:28

to exceed demand by eight million

2:30

barrels of oil per day. That's

2:32

a lot of dead dinosaurs. Way more oil than

2:34

you can fit in your minivan, right? But

2:37

just to put it in a slightly different way, that's

2:39

about 8% more oil

2:42

than the world is projected to need

2:44

or want at that point. In short,

2:46

we are predicted to have an oil

2:48

glut in just a few years' time.

2:51

This prediction is brought to you by

2:53

a report this week by the International

2:55

Energy Agency. To

2:57

put this oil surplus prediction

2:59

in perspective, the only other time

3:02

the global oil market had that

3:04

much excess oil was back in

3:06

2020, when literally the

3:08

world was shutting down because of COVID and people

3:10

were staying home and they weren't flying and they

3:12

were just cooped up. Is it, dare

3:15

I say, possible that this is

3:17

a good indicator? It's reflective

3:19

of two trends going on, both

3:21

on the supply and demand side

3:24

of the oil market. On the

3:26

supply side, you have countries like

3:28

the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.

3:31

They're all expected to increase oil production in

3:33

the coming years. And at the

3:35

same time, on the demand side, much

3:37

of the world is trying to reduce its

3:40

fossil fuel use, you know, move to cleaner

3:42

fuels. And so it's predicted

3:44

that demand for oil's gonna actually plateau in

3:46

the next few years. And

3:49

what is this gonna do to gas prices? Yeah, let's get to breath,

3:51

guys. Gas prices. So

3:54

the jury's sort of add on that one,

3:56

because it could be that oil companies see

3:58

this predicted. slowing of oil demand

4:01

and they respond by just shutting

4:03

down oil refineries and if they do that that

4:05

might actually not have much of an effect on

4:07

the price of gas then it'd

4:10

be good for climate change right here or a

4:12

refinery maybe also maybe not

4:14

uh... yet maybe maybe better than

4:16

nothing but you know even

4:19

though we're predicted to see demand for

4:21

oil peaking by twenty thirty the

4:23

level of oil consumption at that time actually

4:25

won't be that much different than it is

4:28

now as we all

4:30

know fossil fuel use has to come down

4:32

a lot from where it is now in

4:34

order for us to actually avoid some

4:36

of the really bad effects of climate change okay

4:38

so basically we have no idea what could

4:40

happen maybe maybe not

4:43

that's my that's my only answer from

4:45

now on your indicator is maybe not

4:47

that's your indicator i should have

4:49

known that there were not going to be easy answers to like

4:51

what will do this due to gas prices and what will do

4:53

this due to climate change like these are very complex things

4:55

obviously so i start uh... there you go

4:57

i've given you a nice hazy

5:00

ambiguous indicator well

5:02

i'll go next because my indicator is

5:04

also kind of in the geopolitical sphere

5:07

so my indicator is fifty billion dollars

5:09

that is how much money the u.s.

5:12

and other g seven countries are lending

5:14

to ukraine under a new arrangement so

5:16

g seven leaders are in italy this

5:18

week for a summit and

5:21

the fifty billion dollar deal is actually

5:23

the answer to this legal financial brain

5:25

teaser we covered on the indicator a

5:27

few months ago that brain

5:30

teaser is how can frozen russian

5:32

assets be used to pay ukraine

5:35

right because there are all these russian

5:37

assets that got frozen in place by

5:39

sanctions back in what was it twenty

5:41

twenty two yeah when russia launched

5:44

its full-scale invasion and there's

5:46

about three hundred billion dollars in russian

5:48

assets that are frozen in the west

5:50

mostly at this one place called euro

5:52

clear in belgium and the majority of

5:54

the assets are in the form of

5:56

investment like foreign government bond europe

6:00

officials can't just, I assume, give these Russian

6:02

assets to Ukraine. I mean, would that violate

6:05

some kind of international law or something? I'm

6:07

guessing an elaborate heist is

6:09

off the table, is that, or I don't know, I

6:11

would watch the movie, but probably you can't do that.

6:14

They would call it the Italian job. I can never imagine

6:16

meeting Italy right now. They drove

6:19

all those little mini-coopers around. It was very

6:21

cute. But instead, they agreed

6:23

on another plan, and this is how

6:25

it will work. So these frozen Russian

6:27

assets have been earning interest while they've

6:30

been immobilized all this time. We're talking

6:32

billions of dollars worth of interest income

6:34

every year. That's the money the G7

6:36

is going to use to back this

6:39

$50 billion loan. I see. So this

6:41

is why the G7 isn't just giving over $300 billion.

6:43

They basically are treating it like an

6:45

endowment at a strange G7

6:48

college that they can spend the

6:50

money on. And when we did

6:52

our episode back in March, I talked to a

6:54

lawyer who compared this to taking the sprinkles from

6:56

an ice cream cone that belongs to Russia. He

6:59

was a little bit skeptical. He was like, don't

7:01

the sprinkles technically still belong to Russia, and Russia's

7:03

going to march into the international court? You need

7:06

to generate new sprinkles. They would need to

7:08

generate extra sprinkles. The European Union has

7:10

been setting aside these profits, and this

7:12

money is considered easier to access than

7:14

the main pile of frozen Russian assets.

7:16

But again, I'd like to say I'm

7:18

not a lawyer. Don't take this as

7:20

legal advice. Okay, I

7:22

guess we'll go from ice cream cones

7:24

to coffee cups, because Kenny, your indicator

7:27

is about... That,

7:33

my friends, is the sound

7:35

of cheap coffee. Or, I mean,

7:37

I guess cheaper coffee is probably what I should

7:40

say. Because last week, this

7:42

cup of tall Starbucks coffee and

7:45

this croissant also bought...

7:47

it doesn't make as much noise. These

7:50

two things would have cost me about $7

7:53

last week at Starbucks. But this

7:55

week, the combo cost $5,

7:58

which is my indicator. Because

8:00

this $5 combo is just part

8:02

of a new value menu that Starbucks rolled

8:04

out this weekend. Would you like the

8:06

full rundown of the full combo menu? Only if it

8:08

comes with ridiculous names will have to memorize. It doesn't.

8:11

I'm sorry. But of course we have the tall coffee

8:13

in croissant starting at $5 or you can get a

8:15

tall coffee and a breakfast sandwich starting at $6 or

8:18

that's it. That's

8:20

the entire thing. You know what? Let's keep

8:23

it simple. It's good. It's not that

8:25

much to memorize. So this is like sort of

8:27

the McDonald'sification of Starbucks. Well it's

8:29

funny that you say that, Adrian, because the reason that

8:31

this is noteworthy is because it is

8:33

part of a bigger trend we've seen from

8:35

restaurants like McDonald's and Wendy's who

8:38

all seem to be aware that

8:40

we, customers, all seem to

8:43

be aware that the prices

8:45

of restaurants have dramatically outinflated

8:47

actual inflation over the last few years.

8:50

I feel like we've seen lots of coverage

8:52

about this, right? Like restaurants say it's increased

8:54

labor costs. It's commodity costs. So even the

8:56

restaurants that are supposed to be on the

8:58

cheaper side of things, they have to increase

9:00

their prices. And

9:02

so on one hand, it's not surprising

9:04

to see yet another fast casual place

9:06

tweak their menu to give customers a

9:09

little way to save a little money. On

9:12

the other hand, this is Starbucks we're

9:14

talking about. This is famously the brand

9:16

that sells quote unquote

9:18

affordable indulgence, not bargain

9:21

bin coffee. And so it

9:23

does feel like a sign of

9:25

the times. Like even fancy pants Starbucks

9:27

seems to be, you know, telling us

9:29

with their menu that they

9:33

know price hikes have rung every single

9:35

penny out of us customers. And we

9:37

need a slightly more affordable

9:39

indulgence. Well,

9:44

that is a wrap on indicators of the

9:46

week. Kenny, thank you so much for coming.

9:49

And do you know what else is an affordable

9:52

indulgence? I feel like I'm walking

9:54

into an answer. While you were

9:56

gone, Kenny, the indicator launched a brand

9:58

new line of merch. Have you

10:00

seen it? Indicator swag! Oh! I

10:03

actually, I did, I did click around. I didn't know

10:05

that's what you were talking about. It's fantastic. Yes

10:07

it is. There is a new t-shirt.

10:10

You can get your own at shopmcr.org/indicator

10:12

or get access to even more merch

10:14

by joining Planet Money Plus. You will

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find links in the show notes. This

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episode was produced by Angel Correras with engineering by

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Sina Lafredo. It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez.

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Kiki Buchanan is our editor and the indicator is

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