0:01

NPR. Here

0:12

on The Indicator and our sister show

0:14

Planet Money, we are like one big

0:16

podcast family. And like

0:18

a lot of families around the holidays,

0:21

we sometimes have our disagreements. Now

0:23

how do we settle our disagreements?

0:25

We air them out publicly in

0:27

a friendly game show competition. That's

0:30

right. It's time for another

0:32

Family Feud. Today,

0:40

I am competing head to head with

0:42

my Planet Money colleagues, Kenny Malone and

0:44

Jeff Guo to figure out the indicator

0:46

of all indicators for 2023. The

0:50

thing that when we look back at

0:52

the economy years from now, we will

0:54

say, that's what this year was all

0:56

about. This is

0:58

where legacy is made, Waylon. I am

1:00

very excited to make my mark. Here

1:03

we go. History in the making. Jeff,

1:05

you ready? I'm ready for a rematch.

1:08

Did you lose? I think we both lost

1:10

to Sarah last year. Ah, I'm

1:12

glad we didn't invite her back. Excellent.

1:15

I didn't think I would care about losing until I

1:17

lost. And you've carried that grudge all year, haven't

1:19

you? Exactly. Here are

1:22

the rules. Each of us prepared something for our

1:24

indicator of the year. We will each make our

1:26

case in 60 seconds or

1:28

less. And in the end,

1:30

you the listener will vote on who

1:32

had the indicator of 2023. Coming

1:36

up on the show, we've got

1:38

Kenny Malone on consumer sentiment, Jeff

1:40

Guo on a soft landing, and

1:42

me, your indomitable host, Waylon Wong,

1:44

and the housing market right after

1:46

the break. Waylon

1:53

Wong and the housing market is my favorite

1:56

new indie band. So good. This

1:59

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babson.edu/ grad programs. Indicators

3:04

of the year 2023, Jeff, you're up first. All

3:09

right, all right, who's gonna set the timer? Oh, I got it. I got

3:11

it right here. I've been told there's

3:13

a very aggressive buzzer at the end of this, Jeff, so

3:15

just be warned. Oh, no, I hate loud noises. It's

3:18

gonna upset my cats. All right, all

3:20

right, hold on. Okay, deep breath. Okay,

3:25

so I would argue that the

3:27

thing we will all remember 2023 for is the saga

3:29

of the soft landing. Will

3:33

the Fed be able to bring down inflation without

3:35

triggering a recession, or will the whole economy descend

3:37

into a crisis? That was the main storyline of

3:39

2023, kept us in suspense the whole

3:42

year. Remember every month waiting for the new

3:45

inflation numbers. Remember all of our debates about

3:47

the Phillips curve, the yield curve, and that

3:49

weird month when everyone seemed like they were

3:51

an expert on the job openings and labor

3:53

turnover survey. It was all so so

3:56

stressful, and I'm not just speaking as an economics reporter, but

3:58

also as a regular citizen who does not. want the

4:00

economy to, you know, collapse. But can

4:02

I say, in hindsight, I maybe kind

4:04

of enjoyed it? Because the whole year

4:06

kind of reminded me of, you know,

4:08

a rom-com, the whole will-they-or-won't-they situation between

4:10

the Fed and the soft landing. And

4:12

just like a rom-com, it looks like

4:15

we're going to have that happy ending,

4:17

I think, I hope, hopefully.

4:20

Hey, Jeff! Five seconds

4:22

to spare. Anything else you want to say? No, I

4:24

got nothing. I can't breathe. What's

4:27

the title of your rom-com? Will-they-or-won't-they.

4:30

Ooh, ooh. Just tell people what

4:32

it's about. Every rom-com is

4:34

about will-they-or-won't-they. How about a soft

4:36

place to land? Oh, that's good.

4:38

And it's like just in time for Christmas.

4:41

Will the big city, Jay Powell, make it

4:43

in time? It's good. It's

4:45

got hallmarks of hallmark. It's

4:47

good. I love

4:49

Jeff's assumption that we were all furiously debating

4:51

the Phillips Curve this year. I

4:54

feel like we had different years. It's slightly different.

4:57

Well, I actually

4:59

would not mind going next, because Jeff has kind

5:01

of keyed me up nicely, if that's OK? Yes,

5:04

absolutely. No, I'm not the official host, Waylon, but

5:06

I would love to say 60 Seconds on the

5:08

Clock. It's always been like a dream of mine,

5:10

game show style. Is that OK? You go

5:12

for it, yeah. Because I want you to have

5:14

this before we crush your dreams of not choosing

5:16

your indicator as the indicator of the year.

5:19

Well, the people choose. The people choose, Waylon.

5:21

OK, 60 Seconds on the Clock, please.

5:24

And it's the economy

5:27

stupid. That is the famous formula

5:29

for why people vote the way

5:31

they do. But I am here

5:33

to say no. It's

5:36

what people feel about the

5:38

economy. And for decades, this

5:40

distinction did not matter. But

5:42

2023 produced a historic split

5:45

between, frankly, surprisingly

5:47

good economic numbers and

5:49

surprisingly bad economic sentiment numbers. And if

5:51

you look at the Econ data, it

5:53

does increasingly seem, as Jeff said, like

5:55

we've threaded a needle and steered the

5:57

economy through a pandemic and a recession.

6:00

recession and a spike in inflation

6:02

to a soft landing where inflation gets

6:04

wrangled without crashing into another recession. And

6:06

yet our economic vibes are not

6:08

reflecting this. It really seems

6:10

like this disconnect will end up shaping the

6:13

world in the upcoming elections, of course, but

6:15

but also in the lessons our policymakers draw

6:17

from the last three years. And so I

6:19

nominate as my indicator of the year consumer

6:22

sentiment. Thank you. I

6:24

have three more seconds. I just like to thank everyone. Oh, there it

6:26

is. No, boo. That

6:29

is loud. Well,

6:33

I think you have teed up

6:35

my indicator quite nicely because as

6:38

we've covered consumer sentiment, this negative

6:40

consumer sentiment, I think was largely

6:42

driven by what's going on with

6:45

my indicator. So if we could get

6:47

60 seconds on the clock,

6:50

I will commence. All

6:52

right. For my indicator of 2023,

6:55

I would like to direct you

6:57

to America's best cultural barometer, which

6:59

is the most recent season of

7:01

selling sunset. This is a

7:04

Netflix reality series about luxury real estate

7:06

agents in Los Angeles. Things are moving

7:08

pretty slow in the market right now.

7:10

This is Mary Fitzgerald, one of the

7:12

agents on the show. You

7:14

don't have as many buyers out there trying

7:16

to buy. We don't have as many sellers

7:18

willing to sell. I think every agent has

7:20

to really get out there and hustle. That's

7:22

right. They're super rich are having trouble

7:25

in 2023's housing market. Mortgage

7:27

rates went up to 8% this year. So

7:29

aspiring buyers couldn't afford a home and existing

7:32

homeowners didn't want to sell. realtor.com

7:34

says existing home sales are on track

7:36

to have their worst year since 1995.

7:40

So borrowing from Mary's language, I think the two

7:42

of you will really have to hustle if you

7:44

want to beat my indicator of the year. The

7:46

lousy housing market. Well,

7:50

Zun Weyland. It is

7:52

incredibly on brand that Weyland somehow managed to get reality

7:54

TV into this. I am very impressed. I

7:56

just want to point out there's something

7:59

very interesting psychological. that's going on here

8:01

where I would argue the

8:03

2023 was like a rom-com. Kenny, you're

8:05

arguing it's basically like, I don't know,

8:07

like a Greek tragedy. It's a Fincher

8:09

movie. Okay, sure. It's Gone Girl. Ooh.

8:13

And Waylon just thinks it's one of those reality

8:15

shows we all had to watch when the writer's

8:17

strike happened. Yeah, you're not wrong. Well,

8:21

I would have watched Selling Sunset even without the writer's

8:23

strike. I have a sense.

8:26

We know, we know. But

8:31

you know, now on this

8:33

episode of reality radio, I

8:35

guess we've just made. Yeah.

8:38

It's time for some audience participation. So

8:40

now listeners of Planet Money and The

8:42

Indicator, please write us

8:45

and tell us who you choose for

8:47

Indicator of the Year, who made the

8:49

most compelling case and won you

8:51

over. Send us an email at

8:53

indicator at npr.org and

8:56

just put family feud in the subject line and

8:58

Waylon Wong housing market in the body. Whoa,

9:00

whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. What did I say? Finger on

9:02

this. Oh, I don't know. Maybe. This

9:08

episode was produced by Julia Richie with engineering

9:10

by Valentina Rodriguez Sanchez. It was back checked

9:12

by Cio Juarez. Kakin Cannon is our editor

9:14

and The Indicator is a production of NPR.

9:25

Isn't family feud about families

9:28

feuding against other families, not

9:30

families? Yeah. Not about

9:32

an intra-family. Other families, that's correct. It's an

9:34

inter- it's inter-family, not intra-family. This

9:36

is an intra-family. Yeah. It's like

9:38

Romeo and Juliet, not King Lear. It's

9:41

like family feud, but forget everything you've

9:43

ever known about the TV show Family

9:45

Feud.