0:00

Hey, gang, it's Reid. Before we get started, I

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sign up to be a

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supporter today. And now

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on with the show. Welcome

0:30

back to the Lincoln Project. I'm your host,

0:32

Reed Galen. Today, joined

0:34

by legendary Democratic strategist, senior

0:37

advisor of the Lincoln project and host

0:39

of that Trippy show found where

0:41

refined podcasts are offered. Joe

0:43

Trippy, Joe. Welcome back.

0:45

Thanks, Reese. Good to be with you, man. So,

0:47

Joe, it's been a while since we've had you on, so thanks

0:49

for coming back. There's a lot to get to.

0:51

You know, I wanna talk a little bit later

0:54

about the fact that Nikki Haley is the

0:56

first non Trump candidate in the

0:58

twenty twenty 4G0 OP nominating

1:00

contest, and I wanna get sort of your broader predictions

1:03

for twenty twenty four. But before we get to

1:05

that, let's talk about where we are. So

1:08

you know, as we're talking about this, we're

1:10

just a week past president Joe

1:12

Biden's state of the union address.

1:14

The Republican House led by

1:16

Kevin McCarthy, has started its sort

1:19

of cockamamie investigations, which

1:22

so far have been really just I think

1:24

opportunities to illustrate how goofy

1:26

and crazy they are. And,

1:28

you know, we still have this looming

1:31

debt ceiling. It's not a crisis

1:33

yet, but it could be in which, you know,

1:35

the government will run out of the ability to

1:37

borrow money, to pay debts it's

1:39

already incurred. And think we always need to remind

1:41

them, this is not for future spending. This is money

1:44

we've already spent and we need to pay for.

1:46

And so President Biden

1:48

did a magnificent job not only in

1:50

his speech as written, but also understanding

1:53

where Republicans were as far

1:55

as Social Security and Medicare, which they

1:57

have singularly created or

1:59

recreated as the third rail in American

2:01

politics. And he led them into this

2:03

canyon they can't get out of. So

2:05

they promised they won't cut Social Security

2:07

and Medicare. They don't want cut defense

2:10

spending. So now you've got most of the

2:12

federal budget not including debt

2:14

service. Right? Interest we have to pay on the debt.

2:17

So what's left? Where does it Kevin

2:19

McCarthy go from here? Knowing

2:21

that the White House has basically said this is a red

2:23

line we're not gonna cross. And, you know,

2:25

sitting across the capitol building, I think

2:27

both Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell

2:30

are happy to watch McCarthy twist

2:32

in the wind.

2:33

Now he's been totally outmaneuvered on

2:36

all fronts. I mean, Margery Taylor

2:38

Green and the Magna caucus have

2:40

him cornered on one end. And then you have

2:42

I mean, Biden walking the entire

2:44

congress understanding in

2:47

support of our seniors and social security.

2:49

I mean, it was just class and brilliant.

2:51

I mean, it was ad lib. And then you're right.

2:53

I mean, I think McConnell and Schumer

2:56

are happy to let him twist.

2:58

And there is no way

3:00

out of this canyon. I mean, that's the

3:02

amazing thing. The problem, of course,

3:05

is the debt ceiling crisis

3:07

could turn into a real crisis because

3:10

McCarthy is just incapable

3:12

of leading right now. And I

3:14

think there's a bunch of crazies in the house

3:17

that may well try to take us over the cliff.

3:19

I mean, their their whole desire is to

3:21

destroy government anyway. Right? So

3:23

It's a dangerous game that McCarthy's

3:26

caught

3:26

in, and he's such a weak leader. I

3:28

just don't know how he gets out of it.

3:30

But isn't this a broader issue

3:32

with the Republican Party today. And

3:35

Joe, this is one thing, you know, as a former

3:37

Republican. I'm always surprised when

3:39

I get this reaction, but maybe I shouldn't.

3:41

We as an organization have been saying like

3:43

we believe that the Republican Party as it

3:45

stands today is beyond redemption. That

3:47

doesn't mean there aren't individual Republicans.

3:50

Who want to run for office or

3:52

who no longer in office like Liz Cheney or Adam

3:55

Kinzinger. And that doesn't mean that

3:57

individual Republican voters are necessarily

3:59

bad people. But the direction

4:02

of the party and where its leaders have

4:04

either taken it, I'll let Donald Trump

4:06

or been willing to go along with it like

4:08

a Kevin McCarthy. They've made this

4:10

deal with the devil. They are consistently caught

4:13

in the middle, which is between

4:16

their base primary voters who really

4:18

do believe in a lot of the things

4:20

that Trump has said, that now Rhonda

4:22

Santos is pushing, that Marjorie Taylor

4:25

Green and Matt gates and Jim Jordan and all these

4:27

other goons. And then they have reality. Right?

4:29

So they're stuck between maga and reality. And

4:31

without fail, Joe, in your time

4:33

in politics, have you ever

4:36

seen a group or

4:38

a party that when offered

4:40

the chance between crazy and reality?

4:43

Not only most of the time goes crazy,

4:45

but consistently goes crazy when

4:48

offered that

4:48

chance. That's what's going on, and that's

4:50

why this debt ceiling they go

4:52

to the crazy again, which

4:55

is as you point out, it's where they've gone

4:57

every time. You know, they're

4:59

trying to move away from this I mean, I think

5:01

McConnell, obviously, and a lot

5:03

of the senate that'll be up,

5:06

understand they don't wanna crash

5:08

this thing at the same time,

5:10

like I said, I mean, I just think that the

5:12

true control of the party comes

5:15

from people who, you know, kind of followed Steve

5:18

Bannonism. He'd be wanna call it Trumpism. He'd

5:20

wanna he'd wanna burn the entire place

5:22

down. Well, the best way to burn

5:24

it down blow up the debt ceiling.

5:27

And, you know, in the end, I think

5:29

they'll have to pass it, but I don't think

5:31

it's gonna be a fun ride at all

5:33

because of the

5:34

crazies. And we should remember that Steve

5:36

Bannon, who is, I think, in many

5:38

ways, the philosophical architect

5:41

of a lot of this Trumpism is

5:44

a linearist, not a John linearist,

5:46

but a Vladimir linearist. And

5:48

his vowed belief is

5:50

that in order to create

5:53

the society that he thinks America needs

5:55

that you have to burn it foundationally to

5:57

the ground. And so he's perfectly

5:59

willing to do that. And these other people are too,

6:02

I think the issue we've seen and this is one

6:04

of the things that I've been frustrated with

6:06

when you see the so called moderate Republicans

6:08

and I'm putting that in air quotes because Joe and I

6:10

can see each other, is, well,

6:13

guys, you know, you had plenty of chances to stop

6:15

this. You could have stopped it in fifteen.

6:17

You know, you could have stopped it in sixteen at

6:20

the convention. You could have all

6:22

said, you know what? You may not like Hillary Clinton, but if

6:24

you don't like Donald Trump, stay home like we've done

6:26

with those voters, they could have done it

6:28

after January sixth and made sure that

6:30

he could never run for federal office again.

6:33

And consistently, they had not chosen

6:35

to make that hard choice and

6:37

therefore here we are. And so

6:39

you're right. First and foremost, I

6:41

don't know that Lauren Beaufort has any

6:44

understanding nor does she care what the

6:46

debt ceiling really means. Right?

6:48

The Republicans were the ones

6:50

who voted for three clean debt ceiling

6:52

increases under Trump while they

6:54

blew a hole in the deficit with massive

6:56

tax cuts for the rich and for corporations.

6:59

And so, like, they have also created

7:01

this problem. And now, McCarthy is

7:03

desperate to find somebody to bail him out.

7:05

And so, you know, it wouldn't surprise me, although

7:07

I have no evidence of this, is that when they allow

7:10

cameras in the White House, you know, in those meetings

7:12

in the Oval Office, if it's McCarthy who doesn't

7:14

want it. Right? Because he's like,

7:16

I don't know what I'm gonna do, but he's

7:18

damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.

7:20

Because his only real constituency,

7:23

Joe, The reason why he rose

7:25

through the Republican leadership so quick was not

7:27

because he was some great legislative strategist.

7:30

Or at least had some philosophical

7:33

underpinning is because he could raise money.

7:35

Right? That's the only reason he was rising through the ranks

7:37

because he just raises money by the bucket.

7:40

But those are the very same people,

7:42

the wealthiest of the wealthy who, you know,

7:44

Steve Schwartzman, are these people who stroke seven,

7:47

sometimes eight figure checks, or those

7:49

other wealthy mostly guys who write

7:51

a hundred thousand dollar checks to have lunch with

7:53

them, they don't want this, but

7:56

they wanted him to be speaker, so they've all

7:59

gone along. Right? They're all fellow

8:01

travelers in the movement. And then

8:03

they're surprised when, oh

8:04

god, McCarthy, you know, is willing

8:06

to be at the driver's seat while Marjorie Taylor

8:08

Greens, like sit in the passenger's seat as they go

8:11

film on Louise on the country. That's

8:13

the whole thing here with this, quote, moderate

8:15

Republicans, you know, that there's some belief

8:17

that they could come back. They can't.

8:20

I mean, McCarthy kinda proves that because

8:22

his whole speakership, we saw

8:25

it with all those votes for the speakership. It's

8:27

why he's still hanging around with

8:29

Santos. Right? Because he needs the vote. He

8:31

needs the vote. So he has no

8:33

room to maneuver. All those guys

8:36

who poundied up the cash could be leaning

8:38

on one side. On the other side, he's got

8:40

a bunch of people to bail on him in a

8:42

nanosecond and in his speakership,

8:45

if he doesn't go along with whatever crazy,

8:47

notions they have. What's fascinating

8:49

to me is that Trump has

8:52

kinda not touched this stove

8:54

yet. Right? He hasn't waited in

8:56

And it'd be interesting to see how DeSantis,

8:59

Nikki Haley, how these candidates

9:02

come in, you know, the press

9:04

should be asking every single one of them right

9:06

now where the hell they are on

9:08

Social Security Medicare, sunsetting

9:10

it, the new, well, we should look

9:13

at it every year, crap. I mean, it's just,

9:15

like, where are they? Are they

9:17

part of this? Burn it all down,

9:19

banonism. And if they aren't,

9:22

how do they maneuver that? Because we

9:24

know that there's a sizable base

9:27

in the party that wants to burn

9:29

it all down. We've talked about this before,

9:31

but the problem with burning the entire forest

9:33

down and expecting all these beautiful

9:36

green shoots to come up as everything in the

9:38

forest dies and it takes

9:39

years. It's like, you know, Mount Saint Helens

9:42

erupts. Right? And it just decimates

9:44

the wildlife around it. And then they're like,

9:47

but twenty years later, look at the richness

9:49

of the volcanic soil. Yeah. But

9:51

it wiped out like a hundred and fifty thousand

9:53

trees and killed like eight

9:54

people. Right. The jobs that

9:57

will be crushed, the global

9:59

impact economically But

10:01

to

10:02

Bannon, all that pain is worth

10:03

it, man. And I don't think, you know,

10:06

is somebody gonna step up in the Republican

10:08

Party in the presidential race and

10:10

say it out

10:11

loud. I doubt it. And if they do,

10:13

it was gonna listen. You know, on the

10:15

Trump piece, let me say this, and

10:17

let me just codify by saying, if

10:20

you clip this, you will clip it with

10:22

context is when Trump is the

10:24

voice of reason politically on social

10:26

security and Medicare, think about that.

10:28

Joe. Right? Like, I mean,

10:31

goodness gracious. But, you know,

10:33

he's always been there. He's always fundamentally

10:35

understood. Because remember, he's not really

10:37

a Republican. Right? He's not really a conservative

10:39

and he's made a living, in

10:41

fact, a lifetime out of spending other April's

10:44

money he ever had any intention of paying

10:46

back. That, like, I don't understand

10:48

why this is such a big deal. Right? We're

10:50

gonna borrow money. Like, we always borrow

10:52

money. Right? And so he's staying

10:54

out of it, but, you know, he can keep

10:56

the mag as fired up in the meantime. It

10:59

very well could be that, you know, maybe

11:01

Trump gives McCarthy the imprimada to

11:03

say, take this off the table. Because remember,

11:06

Trump not the brightest political bulb in

11:08

the Marquis, but he's got some relatively smart people

11:10

around him. And if he wants his

11:12

guy in the speakership and he wants

11:14

this giant time bomb, right

11:16

off the table, then he could say,

11:19

give him the debt ceiling deal for two years.

11:22

Let's never talk about this again or at least and

11:24

not until after this. And make some

11:26

pledge to look at, quote, unquote,

11:28

reforming Social Security in Medicare? Because,

11:30

I mean, Joe, there is the elephant

11:32

in the room, so to speak, as far as entitlements

11:35

are concerned is that, like, time and money

11:37

are not on the side of those programs. And

11:39

there does need to be a serious discussion

11:41

about that, but this is where like you have to be able

11:43

to hold multiple ideas in your head, which

11:45

is you can preserve it for those

11:48

that need it the most who will rely on

11:50

it. Right here and you can fix

11:52

it. It doesn't have to be one or the other.

11:54

But this is the other part about the quote unquote

11:56

moderate Republicans. Right? Is that they're not prisoners

11:59

in the silent if they don't want to be. Right?

12:01

They can free themselves from this.

12:03

But freedom for them also comes with price

12:05

which is they might not survive. They're

12:08

primary. Right? They might not survive

12:10

a reelection bid. Now they're all in purple

12:12

districts anyway, but this is one

12:14

where you could say like, okay, I'm

12:16

gonna shed my label for the good

12:18

of the country. And we're gonna go to Kevin

12:21

and say we're not going

12:23

to take the country over the cliff

12:25

on this. In fact, we're gonna stand together,

12:28

eighteen, twenty of us, whatever it is, and say,

12:30

we disagree with the speaker on this, and we

12:32

will not allow it. And let the slings and

12:34

arrows fly. You know what? For the most part,

12:36

it's Twitter trolls. You're gonna be fine.

12:39

And go to Jefferies. And

12:41

say, let's do a deal. But

12:43

here's the here's what you need to promise us

12:45

is like, we are gonna take a serious look

12:47

at how we're gonna fix this. Give the dims

12:49

the debt ceiling. Right? And I don't know how you do this

12:51

legislatively. Right? So maybe I'm just talking out my

12:53

rear

12:54

end, Joe. But the point is is that a public

12:56

statement like that would be a big deal.

12:58

No. It would be I just don't

13:00

see a group that large doing

13:03

it because they haven't shown any of

13:05

that courage over, what, the last

13:07

six years? Almost eight at this point.

13:09

Yeah. I mean, there's just been no

13:11

signs of it. There's been Adam Kinzinger

13:13

in chainy. They're not there anymore. I

13:15

mean, there's very few. And you

13:17

look at who's heading up the committees

13:19

and who's in charge, and it's just

13:21

not them, and I don't see them standing up to

13:23

it. They didn't stand up to them in the McCarthy

13:26

speakership

13:26

fight. Well and and I said that. To

13:29

someone who I was speaking with specifically about

13:31

this. I said, you know, they let Magna

13:33

take control. Like, they knew what they

13:35

getting. And they were not the last votes for McCarthy.

13:37

They were the first votes for McCarthy. Right?

13:40

Well, who else would we have done? I'm like, you know, well,

13:42

they have these rules they have to work with, and I'm like, they

13:44

don't. Like, this is the beauty of being in

13:46

the middle of a transitionary time

13:49

is that there aren't any rules. You could have

13:51

gone to Pelosi and Jefferies and said,

13:54

give us alyssa slot and his speaker for

13:56

two years and we'll go with you. And it

13:58

would have totally blown up the party, but

14:01

In the interest of those guys and gals

14:03

who believe that the party if they don't believe the

14:05

party's broken, I don't know what to do for them,

14:07

it would have given the opportunity to

14:10

scramble the deck, and really

14:12

make everything, you know, work for two

14:14

years, which would have been harmful to the Republican

14:16

Party, but as I said at the top, Joe,

14:18

I think it's irredeemable as an institution to

14:21

begin with. Well, it is, but the other reason

14:23

Reid is because of the money. I mean, okay. So

14:25

you're these eighteen people. You Bolt you

14:27

do something, and it's

14:29

not just that you gotta rely on some deal

14:31

that you cut with Democrats or whatever. But

14:34

all your money gets turned off.

14:36

Period. You're suddenly out in one

14:38

of these marginal districts with

14:40

no dough because McCarthy Trump

14:42

everybody turns it off. There's all

14:44

kinds of fear here that have,

14:46

like, made these folks all

14:48

cowards, in my view, not

14:51

willing to risk their political careers

14:53

as plenty of done or or just

14:55

said, no, I'm not part of this. I'm leaving. No,

14:57

these are people who wanna survive. And

15:00

to survive in this party, First,

15:02

you're hostage to Trump and still are,

15:04

and now you're hostage to if you're

15:06

not a member of the May caucasus, you're

15:09

hostage to it. And even McConnell

15:11

and these guys I think are underestimating

15:15

how much they are held hostage.

15:17

By both Trump and the MAGA caucus

15:19

in the house. So speaking of being

15:21

held hostage, let's switch gears

15:23

here and we'll leave Kevin in the dust.

15:26

And we'll discuss the twenty twenty four

15:28

Republican primary race such

15:30

as it is. As we're recording this

15:32

today, former South Carolina

15:34

governor Nikki Haley, former UN ambassador

15:37

under Trump, is announcing her

15:39

bid to be the twenty twenty four Republican

15:42

nominee for president. The headlines

15:44

Joe keeps saying she's the first person to quote

15:46

take on Trump. I fundamentally disagree

15:49

with that construction because she hasn't taken

15:51

on Trump. She released a video yesterday

15:54

on Valentine's Day, three and

15:56

half minutes where she doesn't mention Trump.

15:58

She sort of says, you know, bullies, blah

16:00

blah blah blah, but she doesn't really mention it.

16:02

So a couple of things off the top. One is

16:05

Haley was a person. I remember watching

16:08

in fifteen, early sixteen when she was

16:10

supporting Marco Rubio. remember being at a rally

16:12

for Rubio in Charleston. Again,

16:14

this is twenty sixteen, so it feels like a million

16:16

early twenty sixteen. Seven years ago.

16:19

Like, okay, this is the future of a party

16:21

I can get behind. Now Trump was

16:23

on the march. He'd already won Iowa.

16:26

And it looked like he was gonna win. But

16:28

Rubio looked like a guy for the future.

16:31

Haley looked like a woman for the future. Right?

16:33

They looked like America looks

16:36

now and will look more like in the

16:38

future. And then just like we

16:40

talked about with these other quote unquote moderate Republicans,

16:43

She sold out. She's done being a

16:45

governor. Right? What's she gonna do next?

16:47

So she gets this job that, you know, you and

16:49

ambassador, probably not a bad gig.

16:52

Right? All things considered. But it's

16:54

all of the things that you have to put up

16:56

with and you have to accept that

16:59

have tainted Haley with otherwise

17:01

probably quote unquote normal Republicans.

17:04

And because the maggots know she's not

17:06

true to the cause, I was looking

17:09

at some of the comments about her video yesterday,

17:11

Joe. And they're just brutal. Right?

17:13

So again, you know, steelers wheel, right,

17:15

stuck in the middle with you. And I also

17:18

thought that just the, you know, the video. Like,

17:20

it was just also conventional, Joe.

17:22

It was also twenty twelve.

17:25

Even the heels.

17:27

Yeah. No. Sarah Silverman on The Daily

17:30

Show said the nineties called it once it's

17:32

joke back. Yeah. It was like

17:34

I don't get what lane.

17:37

And I that's even going back to the night. It's like there's

17:39

lanes in the Republican Party. Right? Now there's

17:41

one freaking lane people. You

17:43

know? And they're all gonna end up fighting

17:46

over it either to somehow be

17:48

in the Trump lane. Maybe he picks

17:50

her for VP out of who hell knows.

17:52

But, I mean, First of all, I agree with

17:54

you. She's not Maga. She's

17:56

no longer even a rhino.

17:58

She's in, like, certain, you know, on an island,

18:01

I don't see where she gets any oh, she

18:03

is the new generation, though,

18:04

Reed. That's the important thing. She's

18:07

got that new generation lane all locked

18:09

up. Wasn't that Pepsi's tagline for

18:11

a long time too, the taste of a new generation

18:13

look how that goes. Absolutely. But,

18:16

you know, she didn't mention Trump by

18:18

name. In her video. Now we're recording

18:20

this as she's probably getting ready to do her

18:22

event in Charleston today. She

18:24

probably won't mention him by name either.

18:26

I saw some notes too that, you know, it was Valentine's

18:29

Day. It was the anniversary yesterday

18:31

as recording of the fifth anniversary of

18:33

the shooting in Parkland Florida at

18:35

Marjorie Stone and Douglas and shout out

18:37

to our good friend Fred Gautenberg

18:39

who lost his daughter Jamie there who is an

18:41

absolute rock in the movement

18:44

to save our kids. And I just I can't say

18:46

enough good things about Fred. He's just the he's

18:48

a bench of benches. And then,

18:50

you know, we had the shooting at Michigan State.

18:53

And somebody's like, why would she do this? Why

18:55

would she do this? And I said, you know, I I did

18:57

this little thread on Twitter, Joe. They'd been

18:59

planning this for, like, six weeks. This

19:02

was the day this was day the rocket had

19:04

to launch and they became so

19:06

locked into it that they couldn't get themselves

19:08

out of it. And so it also I think speaks

19:10

to the conventional nature of it, which is

19:12

they don't move fast. They don't think

19:15

about this stuff. They're not feet

19:17

a foot, which is Okay. Should

19:19

we have ever launched video on this

19:21

day? Probably not. Knowing

19:23

this was happened, could we move everything

19:26

back twenty four hours? Or forty eight hours,

19:28

was it really gonna matter at the end of the

19:30

day? And look, I've been a part of a

19:32

disastrous launch. Don't get me wrong. Right.

19:34

Absolutely. And and one of the causes

19:37

of it. And so this is one of those

19:39

things where it just seems like

19:41

they sorta dusted off this playbook from ten

19:43

years ago and said, okay, we'll just run this

19:45

because there's just no imagination, one,

19:47

but two, I think still lacking

19:51

even more now among non Trump

19:53

Republicans or nominally non Trump Republicans,

19:55

Joe, an understanding of the world we

19:57

live in and how not only the world

19:59

we live in

20:00

politically, but how you have to operate in that world?

20:02

Well, I think it's also they

20:04

don't care. I mean, like, who

20:06

cares about it? Anybody who cares

20:08

about that isn't somebody who I care about

20:11

right now. It kinda gets to the blind

20:13

ambition thing too. Right? I'm going

20:15

for it. I'm going for it on this day.

20:17

I don't care about this other stuff.

20:20

It's not an issue I'm gonna be out

20:22

there on or I'll be on the opposite

20:24

sides of it. And I don't really care.

20:27

It's sort of the whole motivating factor

20:30

of the entire Trump movement in how

20:32

it's actually grabbed people

20:34

like Nikki Haley and pulled them into

20:36

it. It's just about ambition, power,

20:39

money, and nothing else

20:41

matters. Again, everybody's gonna

20:43

become a political stunt artist.

20:46

All these people who get in because that's

20:48

the only way you have any chance

20:50

to attract or grow in the party right

20:52

now. That's what it wants. That's what it craves.

20:54

And again, like, you know, just pulling

20:57

out old nineties jokes about hills,

20:59

I guess, is the best they can do. But

21:01

there won't be any policy creativity or

21:03

or

21:03

even, I think, caring there

21:05

about what to do. I think that,

21:08

unfortunately, if I put my nerd

21:10

hat back on that we're in a post policy world

21:12

for the moment, or an unpolicy world,

21:14

not post, because policy will come back

21:16

for better or worse. But I I think

21:19

you're also right in that you've seen before

21:21

her video and before her launch there, you

21:23

know, she started tweeting about critical race

21:25

theory. And only American citizens

21:27

should vote. And all this other stuff and you're

21:29

starting to see like the only American citizens

21:32

should vote thing, pop up all over the

21:34

place which means somebody pulled on it. Because

21:36

that's like such an issue of all the other

21:38

things. But let me switch gears to Iran DeSantis

21:41

because DeSantis is one of those guys who

21:43

is very much he is not trying to

21:45

thread that needle, which is an impossibility. He

21:48

is very much trying move to maga.

21:50

One thing I thought was Interesting,

21:52

though, earlier this week was that

21:54

the college board who administers, you know, the

21:56

SAT AP classes after

21:59

caving to him on, quote,

22:01

unquote, watering down African American

22:04

history studies sort of

22:06

found its spine and said, leave us alone, you know,

22:08

you're a bully. And he said, maybe we'll just get rid of

22:10

AP classes altogether. And

22:12

I'm thinking to myself, you know, George Packer

22:14

wrote a book Last best hope, I think,

22:17

that came out last year. And he

22:19

describes four Americans and one of them

22:21

is smart America. And smart

22:23

America's, you know, people like me.

22:26

I've got kids in school, educated,

22:28

successful, have an expectation that

22:31

kids are gonna go college that they'll do better than

22:33

we will, that there's a social currency to

22:35

where they go to school, to what they

22:37

do for a living, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.

22:40

And so now what you're telling all these

22:42

Gen X wealthy white

22:44

people in Florida is, sorry, no

22:46

plus up for your kids GPA, which

22:49

I know it's very nichey, but again, those

22:51

people, my cohort Joe, are tending

22:53

to vote more Republican than not,

22:56

because I think there's probably a resource hoarding

22:58

thing or this world works for me

23:00

and maybe I'm not an over racist

23:03

like, you know, Bubba down the street,

23:05

but the truth is is that, like, the world

23:07

that Trump outlines works for me better than

23:09

the one that somebody else might outline. And

23:12

I also think that as far as

23:14

desantis is going, I don't think he's a particularly

23:17

good politician anyway, is

23:19

it also finds a way to sort of

23:21

screw him in a general, should he beat Trump,

23:23

which has a whole bunch of other cascading

23:25

events? No, I agree. I mean,

23:27

look, I don't think you can out

23:30

Trump

23:30

Trump. Trump won't let that happen.

23:32

I also still think that both

23:34

of them Trump and DeSantis are

23:37

really good at playing to the base and

23:40

horrible about any ability

23:42

to expand out which

23:45

I think given the polarization that

23:47

we're in, they're gonna end up

23:50

creating a split in maga.

23:52

You know, I mean, somehow, there's no

23:54

way these two things can equal a win in

23:56

November of twenty twenty four for

23:58

either one of them. On the other hand,

24:00

When you look at these polls and you see, you know,

24:03

Trump at forty two or forty four

24:05

and DeSantis at thirty, twenty

24:07

nine, thirty one, There's no room

24:09

for a Nikki Haley or

24:11

a Larry Hogan or or and by the way,

24:14

she can't be both Omega and

24:16

Oreno. There's gonna be pure rhinos

24:18

like Larry Hogan who you know, but even Hogan

24:20

said he'd support Trump. So, you know, what

24:22

are you gonna do? Yeah. They probably all

24:24

will say that no matter

24:26

what. And they probably all will if he's the

24:28

nominee. So I was speaking to a group

24:30

last Friday night. They were, I'd

24:32

say, a mixed bag politically. More

24:34

probably leaned left than identified as

24:36

Democrats, and one identified

24:38

as a Republican who was done with Trump.

24:41

And lived in Florida and and was supporting

24:43

DeSantis. And I said, think about what you

24:45

have to accept. Right? Okay. So

24:47

he's not Trump. So let's say that

24:49

makes up seventy five percent of the reason

24:52

why you're voting for Rhonda Sanchez. Let's

24:54

say it's another ten percent because

24:56

you've heard his name or because you live in Florida.

24:58

But then, you've got critical

25:01

race there. You've got the stuff on race. You've got

25:03

the stuff on African Americans. You've got the

25:05

stunts of flying migrants from

25:07

Texas to Florida, like, just the general,

25:10

like, being an asshole, being,

25:12

you know, downright protofascist when

25:14

it comes to private industry, like, you

25:16

have to be okay with all of those

25:18

things to say that Ron DeSantis is

25:20

my guy. Right? Is it

25:22

just easier because he's not, you know, you don't see

25:25

him as embarrassing like you do Trump when

25:27

you're sitting around the country club? Right?

25:29

Like, okay. Yeah. He's a boor and everything else.

25:31

But, you know, DeSantis, he went to Yale and

25:33

he went to Harvard and he played on the baseball

25:35

team and he served in the army and or navy,

25:37

whatever the hell it was. Right? And he's got a

25:39

pretty wife. So, like, I'm not embarrassed

25:41

by DeSantis. It's not whether or not

25:43

Joe, his belief system,

25:46

which I think is cynical, to be honest with

25:48

you, is antithetical to decency and

25:50

democracy But, you know, I'm not

25:52

embarrassed to support him publicly. They

25:55

will be.

25:57

Trump will assure it. Yeah. I don't think he's

25:59

gonna wear well. There's something about

26:02

that guy, no likability, I

26:04

think. I mean, I think at all that ass

26:06

holiness will not wear well

26:08

over time And I

26:11

still think he is

26:13

so driven, and I think many

26:15

in the race will be so driven by

26:17

trying to pick up the Trump

26:19

mantle. You can't pick up the whole

26:21

Trump mantle. One, that's the first

26:24

fallacy. And then the second one is to the extent

26:26

you succeed in doing that, you can't pick up

26:28

anything else. And so when you look at

26:30

these states that were lost by fifteen

26:32

thousand votes or forty thousand votes,

26:35

You have to have all that Trump stuff,

26:37

all in one place, and you can't lose

26:39

any of it. And I just think

26:41

it's literally running as fast

26:43

as you can into a blind

26:45

alley, not realizing that

26:48

there's no way out. So

26:50

there's a great book that I've referenced many

26:52

times by Richard Ben Kramer in which

26:54

you are featured in it prominently. What

26:56

it takes, what it takes to be president,

26:59

which for shorthand, I've always said,

27:01

are you willing to do the thing the other

27:03

person isn't to win the

27:05

most powerful position humanity has ever

27:07

created? In nineteen eighty eight, George

27:10

h w Bush was? Michael Dukakis

27:12

wasn't. But there's also sort of the

27:15

stylistic part of this, and you mentioned it

27:17

with desantis, which is like, really?

27:19

I mean, I remember watching a video in

27:22

probably twenty fourteen of

27:25

Scott Walker, who'd done a video for a

27:27

conference I was putting on him, like, this guy?

27:29

This guy's never gonna be president. Right?

27:32

Like, you could just see and so what is

27:34

it that you see when you just look at somebody? Because

27:36

you've done this for a long time with a lot of

27:38

different candidates. You just look at your go. Nope.

27:41

It's such a snap judgment sometimes

27:43

where you have to want it.

27:46

You have to want it more than anything

27:48

else on this planet, more than your

27:50

family? I mean, this is the sort of antithetical

27:53

we treasure people who care about their

27:55

families, etcetera. No. No. This is like

27:57

you care about nothing else more than

28:00

this, and none of them are prepared

28:02

for it. Even people who planned

28:04

for eight, ten, twelve, fourteen,

28:07

sixteen years to run for

28:09

president of the United States they get

28:11

into it and have no clue.

28:14

I mean, they're they're shocked by

28:16

what it takes to do it. And I think

28:18

all of them including DeSantis.

28:21

It's not as easy as it looks, guys. It's

28:23

it's not. It's a very tough

28:25

thing to do even if you have a really good

28:27

staff and you think you're prepared

28:29

for it. You're not and we talk about it. It's like it's

28:31

not going from triple a to the majors.

28:34

It's going from little league to the

28:35

majors. Right. While you're standing in the

28:37

batter's box trying to hit a ball while other people

28:39

are hitting you with baseball bats at the same

28:41

time, literally hitting you with baseball bats. Yes.

28:44

Like I said, I mean, putting one of these things together

28:46

is like, you're putting the wings on the

28:48

plane as it's rolling down the runway and

28:50

praying that it doesn't crash into

28:52

the ground the second you pull up on the yoke.

28:54

By the way, that book I would recommend

28:57

it to anybody out there who's interested

28:59

in in what it's really like to be in

29:01

presidential campaign. Also a guy

29:03

named Joe Biden prominently featured in

29:05

that story. Yes. And something

29:07

like whatever thirty something years

29:10

later actually becomes president.

29:12

But the book is everything from what

29:14

a debate really feels like and

29:16

how they really prep for it to what it's

29:18

like. And I've been with candidates

29:21

and you can see them lose it. I mean,

29:23

you can see that moment where they realize

29:25

you know what? No. It's not

29:27

worth doing that. I'm not gonna do it. And

29:29

you can just literally see it leaving

29:31

them. I've seen that, Joe. It's fascinating you

29:33

say that because I've literally seen that trying

29:36

to prep candidate and it was the go

29:38

no go moment. Like, you have to decide.

29:40

We don't have more time. We have

29:42

to decide. And the potential candidate

29:45

literally you saw him deflate into

29:47

his chair. I will never forget the

29:49

image in it. You're so right. It's like

29:51

the force drained out of the Jedi, and now

29:53

he's just regular person. And

29:55

you're sitting in there, you know, if they're the governor,

29:57

you're sitting in the governor's mansion, if they're a senator,

29:59

maybe you're sitting in the senate office, you know, if they're

30:02

wealthy, you're sitting in lodge or their

30:04

dining room or something. And you

30:06

see like the spouse and the kids

30:08

and you're trying to explain do

30:11

you know how bad this is gonna be?

30:13

Because I can't explain it other

30:15

than to tell you, imagine how

30:17

bad it could be Imagine it.

30:20

That's not gonna be nearly as bad

30:22

as it will be. And half the time,

30:24

they don't believe it. And if they're United States

30:26

senator, they almost assuredly don't believe it because

30:28

they've all been planning to be president since they took

30:30

office. Right? As my dad, a long time,

30:32

he'll didn't even said senators would all wear

30:34

tokens if they thought they could get away with it. And

30:37

sometimes the spouses are more into

30:39

it than the candidate. Sometimes the spouse in

30:41

the candidate can't stand each other, and that

30:43

starts to come up because nothing

30:46

escapes. It's just like when you're part

30:48

of a documentary, when you're the subject of a documentary,

30:50

nothing escapes the camera no matter how hard you

30:52

try. Minute after minute, day after day,

30:54

hour after hour, week after week, it's gonna

30:56

pick up everything. And that's the same thing a presidential

30:59

campaign does.

31:00

It is an astonishing thing

31:02

and there's no way to prepare for it. I mean, I tell

31:04

people, everybody in America should

31:06

jump on a presidential campaign at some point

31:09

in their lives. I mean, if there's nothing like it,

31:11

the day it's over, you'll say, wow,

31:14

That was the most amazing experience of

31:16

my life. That's even when you lose. You actually

31:18

say that. But the next even if you

31:20

win, very next

31:21

sentences, but please, God, don't let me

31:23

ever do that again.

31:25

Right. But there are people like us and Stu

31:27

who are fundamentally broken who have done it. Yeah.

31:29

Yeah. It's crazy. Yeah. Yeah.

31:31

Exactly. Because it is it

31:33

is a singular thing. You know, I was lucky

31:35

enough, Joe. I I work for George W. Bush, right,

31:37

when he was governor of Texas, and he was running

31:39

the first time. And I was lucky enough to be an advanced

31:42

guy, which the listeners have heard too many times. And

31:44

here I am traveling the country, you

31:46

know, from the, you know, the icy fields

31:48

of Iowa to the swamps of South Carolina

31:50

and then every state literally in between.

31:53

And it's exciting and you get

31:55

caught up in it. And you can't imagine

31:58

doing anything else. And there is that crucible,

32:00

especially when you think you got the head steam

32:02

to win. Like we did. But I also

32:04

remember in two thousand after

32:07

and Stewart talks about this too after, you

32:09

know, McCain crushes Bush in

32:11

New Hampshire by twenty one, we're

32:13

sitting in South Carolina going, we

32:15

could lose. Wait. Wait.

32:17

We could lose. Right? Like,

32:20

and they're like, oh, no. We could actually

32:22

lose this thing. And then obviously,

32:24

you know, Bushwin, South Carolina, and the rest is

32:26

history, but I remember in o

32:28

four sitting at the reelection headquarters

32:30

for George w Bush after that first debate

32:32

against Carrie. I'd been on the

32:34

reelection campaign since July of o

32:36

three, Joe, right, more than year at this

32:38

point. And after that first debate performance

32:40

going, oh, shit, we could lose. We

32:42

might actually lose this thing because

32:44

it never occurred to me. Well, that's how it always

32:47

but, you know, the thing is we were on

32:49

different sides of all during all this.

32:51

We had big disagreements on

32:53

how to move forward as a country, but we

32:56

always believe that whoever

32:58

the two nominees were we're arguing

33:00

over what's the best way to

33:02

make this country better. And

33:05

that suddenly changed to this

33:08

authoritarian movement that doesn't want democracy,

33:10

that Trumpism. And there's

33:13

a lot of well meaning people out

33:15

there who think there's still two

33:17

parties or maybe a third

33:19

party. You know, maybe there's some way we

33:21

can find the middle. There just isn't

33:24

because there's no middle between saving

33:26

the democracy and wanting

33:28

to kill it. You know, I mean, there's just

33:31

no middle

33:31

there, man. Right. And that's what I tried

33:33

tell some folks that I was talking to late last week

33:36

is that we don't see the world as right and left

33:38

or Democratic versus Republican. Right? It's

33:40

like democracy or not. That's

33:42

the line. And it's a different line than

33:44

I think, admittedly, than a lot of folks are

33:46

used to. And so a lot of times,

33:48

you know, when I say, yeah, I think that know, the

33:50

Republican party as an institution probably

33:52

needs to be defeated and defeated and defeated again.

33:55

People are like, but what about the moderate Republicans

33:57

and then we go back well, you know, you've been

33:59

bitten by the lizard, everything else. Alright. So Joe,

34:01

about a year ago, and admittedly, it was an

34:03

election year. So is it gonna be unfair? You wrote

34:06

a memo for Lincoln project about how

34:08

you saw twenty twenty two playing out.

34:10

And I think of the five things. I think you

34:12

got like four point seven five of them right.

34:15

So how do you see twenty twenty three playing

34:17

out? What should we be looking for

34:19

that's not the hustle bustle of

34:21

dead ceilings and everything

34:23

else? You know, read the

34:25

four or five things that I cited

34:27

back then about why democrats should be more

34:29

optimistic and we're gonna be doing better

34:32

than people thought in twenty twenty two.

34:34

It's literally the same things. The

34:37

contrast between the mega

34:39

crazies and calm

34:41

doing the work leadership of Biden and

34:43

the administration Democrats. You

34:45

know, I think we're seeing that with

34:47

McCarthy with Jim Jordan, Marjorie

34:49

Taylor Green, the MAGA caucus

34:52

is gonna be even more chaotic with the debt

34:54

ceiling, putting the country at risk, creating

34:56

more chaos. So I think that I said,

34:58

look, they're gonna keep doing the crazy,

35:01

and I think that's only gonna continue.

35:04

I also said that I thought Biden

35:06

his approval rating, you know, this

35:08

was at the height of gas prices

35:11

and everything skyrocketing inflation.

35:13

And I thought that would stabilize. It

35:16

did not as much as I thought,

35:18

but I think it's going to do that even more

35:20

now, going into twenty twenty three and twenty

35:22

twenty four. So I think Biden's numbers

35:24

are gonna be up. I think his approval's gonna

35:26

be up. I think that contrast between

35:29

the mega crazy chaos and just

35:31

his steady leadership and

35:33

getting things done for people

35:35

that Biden and the administration Democrats have

35:37

been working on. Those two things are still in play.

35:40

I think the other thing though is

35:43

Democrats need to

35:45

fight and you see this. They're getting

35:47

better at fighting, better at calling out

35:50

crazy. Right? Better at taking it on.

35:52

I think Hacking Jeffries is gonna,

35:54

I think, prove to be, you know, street

35:56

fighter in terms of calling stuff out

35:58

and being able to articulate what

36:00

the differences are, and Biden is really doing

36:03

that. I mean, the way he walked them in that state

36:05

of the union address. So I think there's

36:07

three or four of the things that

36:09

I talked at which, by the way, I back then,

36:11

I said they're not good at this. This is not something

36:13

we're good at. We gotta get better at it. think

36:15

that's really improving. But

36:18

the one thing that won't be the case

36:20

is the map. You know, I thought the map

36:23

actually was gonna look better than people

36:25

thought back then, you know, the redistricting

36:27

didn't wasn't as great as I thought it could

36:29

be, but it wasn't as nearly as bad

36:31

as the pundits thought it was gonna be for Democrats.

36:34

Twenty twenty four is not a great

36:36

map. I mean, in terms of what Senate seats are

36:38

up, it's a tougher year

36:41

But I do think that again

36:44

and we're seeing it I think we'll see it in their presidential

36:46

nomination fight too. They're gonna have crazy

36:49

primaries you know, people trying

36:51

to out trump the trampy in the senate race.

36:53

There'll be more Hershel Walkers and

36:56

more doctorizes And so

36:58

a lot of the pieces are still in place.

37:01

And I think even more improved than they were

37:03

when I wrote that first

37:04

memo. So I'm actually still pretty optimistic about

37:07

twenty twenty for. As I might, but I

37:09

would also say that the flip side and you

37:11

referenced it is that the magma movement,

37:13

the Trump as a movement will go further

37:15

into the darkness. It will not moderate.

37:18

The only way if and when it

37:20

ever does something center right

37:22

comes back is if you sort of drive it out

37:24

of the

37:24

party. And I don't I don't see that happening. No.

37:27

And I think the other thing that people are particularly

37:29

the press, you watch the reporters

37:32

interviewing people in the administration. They're

37:34

talking about what You did this. You said you did

37:36

this. You've said you did this the jobs. But

37:39

how do you explain that

37:41

no one thinks you've done a good job?

37:43

And I want one of them to turn around and, like,

37:46

oh, our job is to do it.

37:48

Your job as a reporter or pundit is

37:50

to explain to the American people

37:52

what's happening what the reality

37:55

is. That's the one thing that's

37:57

not gonna change. I don't know what

37:59

it was, but they've always underestimated Biden

38:02

they'll always be talking about

38:04

how he's eighty years old. They'll be

38:06

playing into the MAGA crowd talking

38:09

about his scene, Aylie's over the hill, all

38:11

that garbage that they push out. And

38:13

you've said this to me. We've talked about this. If

38:15

he were forty one years old, everybody would be

38:17

out there screaming. He's the greatest president

38:19

we've ever had. When you actually look at

38:21

all the stuff he's done over the in the last

38:23

two years to dig us out of that pandemic,

38:26

the strongest economy in the world

38:28

to come out of that thing. Yes, with inflation,

38:31

yes, with supply chain issues. But, damn,

38:33

he's done an incredible job. I think that's gonna

38:35

become clearer

38:37

not because of the press corps, but because

38:39

people will start to feel it more. Yep.

38:41

Well, as always, Joe, thank we

38:43

look forward to that. Before I let you go, where

38:46

can everybody find you online and where can

38:48

they find that trippy

38:49

show? Twitter, it's at show

38:51

trippy and that trippy show, a

38:53

podcast, wherever you get your favorite

38:55

podcast or at resolute square

38:57

dot

38:57

com, you can find it there too. As always,

38:59

gang, you can find me on Twitter and

39:01

TikTok. At read galen and on

39:04

Instagram at read underscore galen

39:06

underscore l p. Joe thanks

39:08

as always for joining me. And everybody

39:10

else. We'll see you next time.

39:19

Thanks again to everyone for listening. Be

39:21

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40:02

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