Hi everybody, and welcome back to The Macro Compass!I am offering a FREE 2-weeks trial to my Institutional Macro Research service, which includes deep research pieces and a live Bloomberg chat with me where I provide investors with intraday col

Why Doesn't The Economy Break?!

May 16th, 2024 6m 9s

Hi everybody, and welcome back to The Macro Compass!My upcoming Macro Fund has now raised $70M+ in early interest and the launch is planned soon.Early investors get preferential terms forever.Are you an institutional investor, a family office o

Yield Curve 101

May 10th, 2024 7m 38s

When the yield curve flattens and eventually inverts, you worry.But it’s when a recession hits, the Fed cuts rates and the curve steepens that you become s**t scared.Yield curve dynamics represent a crucial macro variable, as they inform us on

Tectonic Macro Shifts

May 5th, 2024 7m 48s

Hey, this is Alf - welcome back to The Macro Compass!Last week was big for macro and markets.Today’s piece is going to cover:* The Fed’s dovish announcement: a sizeable tapering of their Quantitative Tightening program;* A potential upcoming sh

A Trillion (Dollar) Reasons

Apr 25th, 2024 11m 3s

Here is a trillion (dollar) reasons why the US economy is likely to hold up until elections: between now and then, Yellen is likely to drain the Treasury General Account (TGA) and unleash a wave of almost $1 trillion liquidity on markets and th

Do You Own These in Your Portfolio?

Mar 24th, 2024 11m 24s

Hi everyone, and welcome back to The Macro Compass! 85% of the Early Investor spots for my upcoming Macro Fund are now taken.Early Investors in the fund get:* Preferential fee terms locked in forever;* Free access to my flagship macro research.

Beware Animal Spirits

Mar 10th, 2024 9m 43s

Hi everyone, and welcome back to The Macro Compass! I appreciate you.As you know, I believe macro volatility will dominate the next decade.60/40 and other standard portfolios aren’t equipped to optimally navigate such market environments, and m

IT'S BACK!

Mar 2nd, 2024 5m 51s

Welcome back to The Macro Compass.Let me cut to the chase: The Macro Trading Floor is back!TMTF was one of the most popular macro podcasts out there - I launched it with my friend Andreas Steno in 2022 and it quickly became very popular.I’d lik

The Truth About Money

Feb 25th, 2024 11m 25s

Good Sunday, and welcome back to The Macro Compass.Macro will dominate the next decade, and plenty of investment opportunities should consequently arise for macro investors.This is why I am working on the launch of my own Macro Fund!Early inves

Bubbles & AntiBubbles

Feb 11th, 2024 10m 29s

Good Sunday, and welcome back to The Macro Compass!The window for early investors in my upcoming Macro Fund is still open, and I am glad to report it’s filling up very rapidly - we are at 40%+ of its maximum capacity.Early investors receive a v

Pay Attention To Monetary Plumbing

Jan 27th, 2024 7m 48s

I must say: thank you.After merely floating around the idea of launching a Macro Fund, I am humbled by the amount of interest I have received!Let me share some more info:* Early investors and anchor seeders would receive a very preferential tre

The Liquidity Conundrum

Jan 15th, 2024 9m 1s

The Fed has been running QT for a while and yet there is still abundant liquidity in the financial system. Fed’s bond holdings are down $1.3 trillion from their peak (due to QT), yet only half of this supposed tightening has actually impacted b

Unpacking Bond Markets

Jan 9th, 2024 5m 31s

Macro investing without deeply understanding bond markets is like eating soup with a fork.You can still somehow make it, but it’s cumbersome and unproductive.We are at a crucial juncture for macro and monetary policy, which means getting a grip

The 2024 Macro Playbook

Jan 2nd, 2024 5m 3s

Welcome back to The Macro Compass - may 2024 be your best macro year ever!Let me get straight to the point: our models show inflation is on its way to undershoot (!) Central Banks targets in 2024.Inflation is often a monetary phenomenon: print

The Pivot Is Here

Dec 14th, 2023 5m 9s

There are only 13 spots left to secure a 30% discount on premium TMC tiers for 2024.The discounted price is also guaranteed at any future renewal.Beat the others and use the code CHRISTMAS at checkout!TMC All-Round subs get 3 weekly emails, acc

Japan: Here is What You Should Know

Dec 8th, 2023 8m 19s

As macro investors we are often inundated with flashy headlines, and recently Japan has been front and center.Yet with all this noise it’s easy to miss the forest for the trees.That’s why in this piece we will:* Explain what really drove the re

The Whales Are Coming

Dec 3rd, 2023 7m 8s

‘‘Who are the biggest whales in the bond market?’’If you’d go around and ask this question, most people would tell you that’s either the Fed or foreign Central Banks like the Bank or Japan or the People’s Bank of China.That’s wrong.And the real

Inflation: What Next?

Nov 20th, 2023 9m 2s

Before we start, a short announcement:* If you are an institutional investor and you want to try my dedicated macro research, ping me on Bloomberg (Alfonso Peccatiello) for a 2-weeks free trial.I will also be in London on Dec 6: if you want to

Something Will Break

Oct 15th, 2023 7m

After years of zero interest rates such an abrupt tightening is bound to break something. The main questions are: what, when and where does something break? When rates are low credit is cheap and so financial actors tend to lever up more aggres

The Forever Portfolio

Oct 1st, 2023 6m 38s

Today I am proud to announce the TMC Forever Portfolio.This is a long-term macro ETF portfolio whose aim is to extract risk premia from markets, limit excessive drawdowns and not be dependent on one single macro regime but equipped for many.Wai

A Rare & Dangerous Trend in Bond Markets

Sep 24th, 2023 10m 39s

Hi everybody, and welcome back to The Macro Compass!I will be in New York on Oct 2-3-4 presenting my macro investment outlook to institutional clients - if you are/represent a hedge fund PM, RIA, family office, investment firm or a finance prof

The Key Macro Charts To Watch

Sep 17th, 2023 11m

Hi all, and welcome back on The Macro Compass.Last call: there are only 53 spots (9%) left to secure your heavy discount for the TMC Bond Market Course!As a loyal TMC reader, there is an exclusive offer for you: using the coupon ‘‘BOND500’’ at

Bonds On The Move

Sep 8th, 2023 8m 5s

Hi all, and welcome back on The Macro Compass.Quick reminder: The TMC Bond Market Course is out, and the heavily discounted spots are running off fast!As a loyal TMC reader, there is an exclusive offer for you: using the coupon ‘‘BOND500’’ at c

Big Announcement!

Sep 5th, 2023 3m 17s

If I could go back to when I started my career in financial markets and change one single thing, it would be fast-tracking my learning journey into bond markets.The main issue? A gigantic lack of high-quality educational material.Yes, you can g

US Downgrade! Now What?

Aug 2nd, 2023 10m 5s

Are we back in 2011 or what?After the US debt ceiling drama earlier this year we just witnessed a rating agency downgrading the US exactly like in 2011 – back then S&P, this time Fitch.Today you are likely to read plenty of scary and fear-monge