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This is a Global Player

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original podcast. We have some

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heartbreaking news. This

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is our final election Q&A.

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Oh. Do it a bit

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more with sincerity. Oh. Still no. Still

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no good. Okay, we'll have to put sound effects in. No good

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all. But these are your questions and

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they're all about election night. Sort

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of what time you can go to bed and when

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you can move and what's the first time you should

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have a drink or a coffee or whatever. And some

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people have probably just voted when they're listening to this

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already. That is true. Very

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exciting. Yes, exactly. Very exciting. So

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the first question is from George in Washington

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in the northeast. That's as opposed to. George

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Washington. Yeah. We heard from Andrew Jackson the

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other week. Yeah. It's good that all the

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former presidents. You're making this up, you like. You are making this up.

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I can't wait for our question from Martin Van Buren. That's

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going to be an absolute cracker.

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These agents. I have an early train

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to travel from Newcastle to London on Friday for

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my sister's wedding this weekend. What would you suggest

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is the wedding present? Oh no. What

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would you suggest is the latest I stay

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up knowing that I want to see as

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much of election night unfold as possible but

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also make sure I don't sleep in and

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cause some family drama. Cause family drama George.

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Just go for it. Your sister can get

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remarried. Exactly. There's only going

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to be one election like this. Realistically there could

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be several marriages to come. Exactly.

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Renewal of vows. There are all sorts of

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options for that. So George, you lucky thing

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is what I can say because there is

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a lot to come on Thursday night. Wait

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up for Buzzledon and Bill O'Ricky, which is

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the Tory party chairman seat. Wait up for

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South Swindon, which is Robert Buckland seat. Wait

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up for the first of the

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SMP Labour seats, which will be

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45. It's going to be all night. I'm

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telling you this is going to be awesome. And I'm saying go

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to bed at two o'clock. Most of the seats actually will come

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through between two and three, but they'll be fairly. Yeah.

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Bill's lead presenter there for election night saying go

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to bed at two o'clock. All right. Welcome

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to the news agents. they

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send out a team who stand outside

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actually quite a small number of key

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polling stations across the country. And they

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ask people as they're emerging from the...

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He asks you to vote again. You actually

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get another anonymous ballot. So you do what

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you have just done anonymously. Exactly right.

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And so then what they're able to

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do is get those results and compare

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them to those same polling stations that

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they did in the previous cycle. So

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in 2019. And using that

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and the just sort of wizardry of maths, they

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basically can extrapolate the result across the country. And

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they have got, as Emily was saying, so good

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at it. It normally is. And it has become

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now for election after election, going back lots and

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lots of cycles, generally on the money. It

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might be a little bit out here and there, but it's more

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or less on the money. Yeah. And

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it's different from how they do it in France, where

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in France, they actually are allowed to

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sample votes that have been

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cast in the ballot boxes. And

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that is why kind of at eight o'clock

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in France, they are so accurate that people

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really do think, OK, well, we know the

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result now because these are on the basis.

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So they have become more and more sophisticated.

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But the on the record, off the record.

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And you mentioned Paddy Ashdown there. I

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had an incident. I mean, he did it on the record. You

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know, he said on the record. He couldn't have been more on

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the record. No. And he believed it, I think. He just

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believed that it was going to be better than

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that. But in 2010, I

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bumped into him the day after

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the election, morning after the election, when it

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was unclear whether it would be a conservative

5:26

coalition that would be formed or a labor

5:29

coalition. And labor would desperately try to shore

5:31

up support. And Paddy Ashdown said to me

5:33

off the record over the course of the

5:35

breakfast that there is no way that this

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can possibly happen, that we can prop up

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a labor government. And I went

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on air and said all of that. There

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were furious calls from number 10 to me

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from Peter Mantel and none other saying this

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is absolute nonsense. Of course, we can pull

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this off. When it was still possible, Paddy

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Ashdown went on TV and said, I have

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no idea where this speculation comes from. Amazing.

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And I thought, you told me. You

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actually told me that. and

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he's managed to find a way of doing it

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because we've not been telling anyone. Has an exit

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poll ever been called at 10pm and got it

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completely wrong? I'm looking forward to the long night.

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Yes, a long night. Well, I guess 92. James,

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that's the one that is kind of etched into

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all our memories and if you go back and

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you watch the BBC moment with

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David Dimble be there, they

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say hung parliament and

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they say that the Conservatives I think would be

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10 short and Labour would be 13 short.

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So it looked as if it was absolutely

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neck and neck, no one party having sort

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of overall control, a majority. Which according to

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the polls, running up to

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that moment. Right. And which is where we

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kind of glean this idea of the shy

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Tories from that people were voting Conservative but

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weren't saying it out loud to the pollsters

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and that was wrong. And of course, John

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Major did go on to win that election

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and he got a majority of I think

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2021. So I was at

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national liberal headquarters that night because they were

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expecting a hung parliament and you know, the

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liberal Democrats could have been holding the balance

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of power and therefore be the king makers

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over what was going to happen. I mean,

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it turned out that the Tories got a

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majority and at three o'clock in the morning,

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someone threw up over my shoes as I

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was just about to go live with Dimble

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be to say it's all gone very quiet

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here because he got so drunk. But prior

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to that, I think what was striking about

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that night is not just that the exit

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poll was wrong. And this is where

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it was a catastrophe for the BBC

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and its relations with the Conservative Party

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was that rather than saying it had

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got it wrong, it just would every

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new result recalculate the exit poll so

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that it would eventually accept that

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there would be a Tory majority. Rather

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than saying, I think our exit poll looks like it's

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wrong. It looked like the BBC

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was reluctant to accept the idea that

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the Conservatives had won a majority and

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was okay, okay, grudgingly, yeah, we'll shift

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the dial a bit more on the

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snow swing on the tour. We'll just

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go another inch. But that was pretty

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much the last time. I mean, we

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have been so accurate. I think in

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with Blair's family and various senior

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Labour Party people and we've got

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the Radio 4 programme on of

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the election coverage when

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Peter's speech comes on

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the radio across this bus

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and everyone is just absolutely mortified

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by it. I mean

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just what

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has Peter said and that's all that

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anyone was talking about. So I would say

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John that the thing to look out for is

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who is first out of the traps to

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blame their respective leader if things do

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not go right because last time it

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was Gareth Snell I think

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from Stoke who lost his

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seat and straight

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away he basically broke ranks and said this

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is Corbyn and he was

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the first obviously what we now know of many

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you know Labour MPs who would be feeling similarly

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that that result which took them back to the

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worst one for Labour since 1935 was directly

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as a result of their leader

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and so it is just as

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interesting not just the victory speeches

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but to hear how quickly the

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blame comes tearing in. Yeah because

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the thing is about election night speeches

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as in like on the podium of

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the count is that in terms of

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the leaders the principles they usually say

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very little right because if

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you're if you want the election they thank the

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police they thank the returning officers but

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in terms of if you're the incoming Prime Minister he wants to

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keep his best stuff for the Downing Street moment right you want

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to wait for that and make sure all the results are in

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and so on and if you're the outgoing Prime

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Minister or leader of the opposition whatever likewise you want

23:31

to wait so it tends to be in terms of

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kind of good speeches they tend to be from lesser

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known places I mean Galloway in 2005 when he won

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off in Bethnal Green

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and Burke of Una King when he famously

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said you know Mr Blair this is for

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Iraq Iraq you know I mean

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whatever you think about Galloway as we talked about on

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the show before he ain't a bad orator

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and I think for many Labour voters who had abandoned

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Labour in 2005 as we know

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it was actually a very