0:03

— Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Deepa

0:05

Shivaram. I cover the White House. — I'm

0:08

Frank Ordonez. I cover the campaign. — And

0:10

I'm Carrie Johnson. I cover the Justice

0:12

Department. — It is 646 p.m. on

0:14

Thursday, May 30, 2024, and

0:16

former President Donald Trump is guilty on 34 felony

0:19

counts of falsifying business records.

0:22

That verdict was handed down this afternoon by

0:24

a jury in a New York court. The

0:26

charges in this trial, which has been going

0:29

on for the last six weeks now, stem

0:31

from hush money payments that Trump authorized to

0:33

kill damaging stories in advance of the 2016

0:36

presidential election. Franco, Carrie,

0:38

I mean a pretty stunning moment in American

0:40

political history today, right? The first time

0:43

a former or current president has ever

0:45

been found guilty in a criminal case.

0:47

And obviously this isn't just a former president.

0:49

Trump is a current presidential candidate as well. So

0:52

I know unprecedented is a word we keep

0:54

tossing around a lot, especially on a week like

0:56

this. But it really is an unprecedented moment.

0:58

Carrie? — It really is.

1:00

And, you know, while we were doing live

1:02

coverage of this moment, I was getting a

1:04

lot of text messages, unfortunately, on my

1:07

cell phone. And one of them came in from a

1:10

lawyer who's been involved in the

1:12

legal community here in elsewhere around

1:14

the country. And the text message

1:17

said, no person is above the

1:19

law. And, you know, that's been a pillar

1:22

of our legal system since its

1:24

founding, really. And now we have

1:26

the idea of a former president

1:28

of the United States being judged

1:30

guilty by a jury of his

1:32

peers in his hometown, New York

1:34

City. And that's a very solemn

1:36

moment and a very important moment,

1:38

I think, no matter what happens in

1:41

appeals processes or with the election.

1:44

This trial happened and it mattered.

1:46

— Yeah. I mean, and in

1:49

that moment, we did hear from Donald Trump. I

1:51

mean, he walked out to the cameras,

1:53

made a statement shortly after the verdict. What

1:55

was his demeanor like? I mean, what did he say, Franco? —

1:58

I mean, he was very somber. But, you know. He

2:00

delivered a very strong message.

2:02

I mean, folks like

2:05

ourselves, like our listeners who have

2:07

heard from him and heard his

2:10

language are gonna be very familiar

2:12

with his comments. He reiterated his

2:14

innocence. He called the trial rigged

2:16

and disgraceful. Here's a little bit of what

2:18

he said. This was a

2:20

rigged, disgraceful trial. The

2:23

real verdict is gonna be November

2:25

5th by the people and

2:28

they know what happened here and everybody knows what

2:30

happened here. Yeah, so using, like

2:32

you said, a lot of language, we've heard from

2:34

Trump pretty consistently this whole time. And I mean,

2:37

this are the things, I mean, we haven't heard

2:39

from Biden himself, but the campaign did put out

2:41

a statement. One thing that did stand out to

2:43

me was how much of an emphasis there is

2:45

on highlighting that Biden is the rule

2:47

of law candidate. They're trying to point

2:49

out that Trump is a threat to

2:51

democracy. One thing that Michael Tyler, the

2:53

Biden campaign manager wrote in the statement

2:56

was that, quote, a second Trump term

2:58

means chaos, ripping away Americans' freedoms and

3:00

fomenting political violence. And the American

3:02

people will reject it this November. And they're trying

3:04

to point this back to Trump being a

3:06

threat to democracy. Do you think that's something

3:08

that people are resonating with? Is that an

3:10

effective argument? I mean, I'd

3:12

like to give a stronger answer, but

3:14

I mean, I think it's we shall

3:16

see. I mean, Trump has been able

3:19

to turn bad news to his advantage

3:21

so many times. I

3:23

did speak with a number of

3:25

Republican strategists kind of leading up

3:28

to this to get their take

3:30

on how such a verdict would

3:32

impact Republican and independent voters. And

3:35

I'll tell you, they largely felt that

3:37

this would have a limited impact on

3:40

the election, that most opinions were baked

3:42

in, that people really have already

3:44

picked sides. But that said, it

3:46

still could have an impact on

3:48

the margins, particularly with independent voters.

3:51

And I think what's particularly gonna be

3:53

key to watch is to

3:55

see how both sides kind

3:57

of employ this verdict. to

4:00

their campaign. Yeah, we'll

4:02

get more to that. And Carrie, I mean,

4:04

first with this trial specifically, a sentencing is

4:06

still to come, right? That's set for July 11th. I

4:10

will point out that shortly before the Republican

4:12

National Convention takes place, what's possible

4:14

here for Trump's sentencing? What are you expecting? So

4:17

these 34 counts are considered class E

4:19

felonies under New York state law.

4:21

And the guidelines for the judge

4:23

are basically nothing

4:25

for ovation or up to four

4:28

years of incarceration. The former

4:30

president has no criminal record. And

4:32

so with facts like these, this

4:34

is basically falsification of business records

4:36

to cover up hush money payments

4:39

in the middle of or the waning days of the 2016 campaign.

4:42

He may get no time at all. And

4:45

there's also the complication of the

4:47

former president rolls with the security detail, right?

4:49

He's got secret service with

4:51

him at all times. How do

4:54

you even manage to incarcerate such

4:56

a person? These are very difficult

4:58

questions that New York state authorities and

5:00

the Secret Service and others have been mulling

5:02

in private for months and months now. But

5:05

probably the most likely

5:07

is a non-incarceration sentence. That

5:09

said, the former president has managed

5:11

to really gall this judge, Juan

5:14

Marchon. He's been fined for defying

5:16

a gag order. He has attacked

5:18

witnesses in the case. People like

5:20

Michael Cohen is former fixer who

5:22

testified against him famously in this

5:24

case. He's attacked the judge.

5:26

He's attacked the judge's daughter. And he's attacked

5:28

some of the prosecutors in this case too.

5:30

And that may have irritated the judge in

5:33

a sufficient way that no

5:35

jail time is hard to stomach for

5:37

the judge. The other thing I wanted to

5:39

ask you, Carrie, that was that it is very possible that there

5:41

is an appeal here. Not just very

5:43

possible. It's going to happen, right? Todd

5:46

Blanche, the lead defense lawyer for the

5:48

former president, has already forecasted there is

5:50

going to be an appeal. We don't

5:52

know exactly what grounds, but there are

5:54

a bunch of things. The defense has

5:56

talked about being unfair or legally problematic

5:58

in the course of this case. Among

6:00

them is the testimony of

6:02

Stormy Daniels herself. A member, she took the

6:04

stand. She was basically testifying about

6:07

her encounter with a former president at a

6:09

golf tournament, and she went

6:11

into some very graphic details that seemed to

6:13

alarm the judge, and he tried to put

6:15

a stop to them. Todd

6:18

Blanche and the Trump defense team were

6:20

outraged about that testimony. They

6:22

were also flagging that the

6:24

jury instructions in this case were

6:26

vague and unclear in several respects.

6:29

The judge's instructions are super important. We

6:31

know they're extra important because this jury

6:33

actually asked to have some of them

6:35

read back before they rendered their verdict. And

6:38

finally, there's the theory of the case

6:40

that the district attorney Alvin Bragg advanced

6:42

in the first place. Normally,

6:45

falsification of business records is a

6:47

misdemeanor. It's the lowest of low-level

6:49

offenses. But under the

6:51

theory of the case, the DA advanced here. He

6:55

turned those misdemeanors into felonies because

6:57

he said they were all in

6:59

furtherance of another crime,

7:01

which was trying to keep this

7:03

information from voters days before

7:05

the 2016 election. And

7:08

that theory is a little controversial

7:10

legally, and it could form maybe the most

7:12

important plank of any appeal. We'll see. Okay,

7:15

so this is far from being fully over

7:18

to underscore the important part here. We're

7:20

going to take a quick break, and we'll be back in a moment.

7:25

And we are back. Franco, I want to get into

7:27

the politics of all of this here. We talked about it a little

7:29

bit, but let's dive a little deeper.

7:31

The latest poll from NPR, PBS Newshour,

7:33

and Marist says that 17% of voters

7:36

said they would be less

7:38

likely to vote for Trump if he's

7:40

convicted. 15% say they

7:42

would be more likely to vote for him. But

7:44

a majority, that's 67%, said it makes no difference. So

7:48

realistically speaking, what does this mean for

7:51

how the Trump campaign moves forward with

7:53

it? You're kind of seeing it

7:55

in action. I mean, the pleas for fundraising, the

7:57

messages, the graphic images that they're putting out, never

8:00

surrender. This is what the Trump

8:02

campaign does. Fight, fight, fight. I

8:04

mean, this is another example of

8:07

how the campaign

8:09

is trying to turn a disadvantage into

8:11

an advantage. I mean, we will see

8:14

how it works. It certainly seems to

8:16

be stoking his allies

8:19

in the base, and I think you're likely to see

8:22

many of his strongest supporters also kind

8:24

of rally around him on this case,

8:27

you know, echoing his message that this

8:29

was a biased case, that this was

8:31

a biased judge, that it was a biased

8:33

prosecution. I think the question really is going

8:36

to be about those independent voters in those

8:38

battleground states, the margins, as we were talking

8:40

earlier. And Kerry, I mean, it's worth noting here

8:42

that these are not the only criminal

8:44

charges that Donald Trump is facing. I mean, he

8:47

has federal charges he's facing in DC, in Florida,

8:49

a state court in Georgia. But the important thing

8:51

about this trial specifically in New York was kind

8:53

of the timing of it all. I mean, this

8:55

is likely the only case that's going to

8:57

be heard before the election is over in

9:00

November. Likely the only

9:02

case that's going to begin and end before

9:04

the election. The question now

9:06

is how quickly the New York

9:08

state appeals courts are going to take up Trump's

9:10

appeal in this case, which we know is

9:13

coming, and whether that gets fully

9:15

adjudicated before November

9:17

5th. The heart of

9:19

the matter is that Trump in many

9:21

ways, if he regains the

9:23

White House, will have the power to make

9:25

the two federal cases filed by the special

9:28

counsel, Jack Smith, go away. Those are among

9:30

the most serious cases that Trump

9:32

faces. First, you know, the one

9:34

in Florida over his refusal to

9:36

return highly classified documents he took

9:38

out of the White House and

9:40

stored at his Mar-a-Lago resort. And

9:43

second, the federal case here in D.C.

9:46

over Trump's alleged effort

9:48

to cling to power, which

9:50

culminated in the violent storming

9:52

of the Capitol on January 6th, 2021. And that case is

9:54

on hold because the Supreme Court

9:59

is deciding. how much immunity a

10:01

former president should get. And

10:03

so it's not clear to me either

10:06

one of those matters is going to get off

10:08

the ground before the election. If Trump takes the

10:10

White House, he may be able to put the

10:12

kibosh on both of them. That just leaves this

10:14

New York case and whatever is left of an

10:17

appellate process. And the case

10:19

in Fulton County, Georgia, also over Trump's

10:21

efforts to cling to power in 2020.

10:24

Those two state cases, he has no pardon

10:26

power over. But

10:28

a sitting president may

10:31

be able to even put off proceedings

10:33

in state courts because he

10:35

or she would be so burdened by them while

10:38

trying to do the important job of

10:40

running the country. And that's why this

10:43

New York case, even though it

10:45

may be the least important

10:47

legally and substantively, may wind

10:49

up meaning the most. It

10:51

is enormous, the stakes of all of this when you

10:53

break it down that way, Carrie. And you know, I

10:56

mentioned this earlier, that Trump's sentencing will come on July

10:58

11th. That's during the NATO

11:00

summit that Biden is going to be hosting

11:02

in DC. So quite a split screen that

11:04

we have coming later this summer. And it

11:06

is again, right before the RNC takes place.

11:08

I mean, Trump is essentially going to show

11:10

up in Milwaukee, accepting the GOP

11:12

nomination as someone convicted of a

11:15

felony. Kind of a big picture question here,

11:17

but I mean, for both of you,

11:19

what does this say about the state of

11:21

this election? And broadly speaking, the state of

11:23

our democracy. It is so

11:25

much more going to be an

11:27

issue in the election going forward,

11:29

as you pointed out in Biden's

11:32

campaign message that this is another

11:34

example about how Trump is a

11:36

threat to democracy. That

11:38

this, you know, Biden agreed with

11:40

Trump and his earlier comments that

11:42

it's going to be up to

11:44

the American people to decide whether

11:47

Trump returns to office because

11:49

convicted or not, and he

11:51

is convicted, that doesn't stop

11:54

the fact that he is going to be the

11:57

presidential nominee for the Republican Party. And as Carrie's point of view, it's

11:59

going to be a little bit out, he could

12:01

be elected president. For Trump,

12:03

he is turning the tables and

12:05

using these cases against him, these

12:08

prosecutions against him, to say that

12:10

Biden is the threat to democracy

12:12

and using the prosecution of

12:15

doing Biden's bidding. I do want to be

12:17

very, very clear, as we have been, that

12:20

Biden had nothing to do with this case.

12:22

There's no evidence of that. But

12:24

this is a political message that

12:26

Trump is delivering to his base.

12:29

And when you talk to his base, it

12:31

has been an effective one. They

12:33

are listening to this. The question,

12:35

again, is how do independent voters,

12:38

how does that small group of

12:40

voters in those battleground states, how

12:42

do they interpret this? How do

12:44

they respond to this? And does

12:46

it have an impact going forward?

12:48

And we'll see. You know,

12:50

Donald Trump threw everything he had at this

12:52

case, right? All of his powers of persuasion

12:55

all of his rhetorical attacks. He

12:58

blasted the judge. He blasted the prosecutors. He

13:00

blasted many of the witnesses in the case,

13:02

although not all of them. And

13:05

the jury didn't buy it. The jury

13:07

appears to have listened to the evidence

13:10

that came in, especially the documentary evidence,

13:12

all the papers and the

13:14

records and the audio

13:16

tapes that the prosecutors introduced through 22

13:19

witnesses. And the legal

13:21

system basically did its job

13:24

relatively quickly, you know,

13:26

a verdict in under two days of

13:28

deliberation. And so

13:30

I think it shows that

13:32

our legal system can actually function pretty

13:35

well, even under enormous stress and

13:37

whether this conviction holds up on appeal. And

13:39

it may well get thrown out on appeal

13:41

and we may have to do this trial

13:44

all over again. The legal

13:46

system had its time in the spotlight and

13:48

it appears to have functioned the way it

13:50

was designed to do. Some things

13:52

are unprecedented and some things are

13:55

working the way they're structured to.

13:57

A lot to take in. Thank you both for being here.

14:00

We're going to leave it there for today. You can find. More coverage

14:02

on our airwaves and at npr.org and keep

14:04

a shiver. I'm I cover the White House.

14:06

I'm frank or don't I kind of the

14:08

campaign. And I'm Carrie Johnson, uncover the Justice

14:10

Department. And thank you for listening to Npr

14:13

Politics.