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0:56

Hey there it's the NPR Politics Podcast.

0:59

I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm

1:01

Sarah McCammon. I cover the presidential campaign.

1:03

And I'm Mara Liasen, national political correspondent.

1:06

And today I'd like to think of

1:08

the podcast as the equivalent of if

1:10

you were sitting around and getting a

1:12

beer with me, Mara and Sarah because

1:15

today we're talking Veepstakes. The presidential primary

1:17

is not over but for most Republicans

1:20

it is. Donald Trump is the likely nominee

1:22

and he's already indicated that he knows who

1:24

his running mate will be. We of course

1:26

have no idea who it's going to be

1:28

here on the NPR Politics Podcast but we

1:30

don't even know if he knows who it's

1:32

going to be. But we do know a

1:34

lot about what goes into this guessing game.

1:36

So pour yourself a coffee, take a sip

1:38

of a beer or your favorite non-alcoholic cocktail

1:40

and let's get into it. So

1:43

Mara what are generally the calculations

1:45

that a nominee puts into deciding

1:47

who their running mate should be?

1:49

Well historically the running mate was seen

1:51

as a person who could balance the ticket,

1:54

bring a constituency or a state to

1:57

a ticket. Sometimes candidates looked at

1:59

it in a completely opposite

2:01

way. Remember, Bill Clinton picked

2:03

Al Gore, another young, centrist

2:06

Democrat from the middle of

2:08

the country, Arkansas and Tennessee. He wanted

2:10

to reinforce his brand as a kind

2:12

of new generation, new Democrat politician. But

2:16

most of the time, candidates pick a VP

2:18

to either make up for some deficiency that

2:20

they have or to reach a constituency that

2:23

they don't feel confident in getting. Sarah,

2:25

in 2016, Donald Trump picked Indiana

2:27

governor Mike Pence. And at the

2:29

time, it was seen as

2:31

making up for the deficiency that he

2:34

might have with the evangelical base or

2:36

with people that were concerned about his

2:38

socially conservative credentials. I don't

2:40

think that that part of the base has

2:42

those concerns about Donald Trump anymore. He doesn't

2:44

have to worry about base support. Iowa exit

2:46

polls would tell you that he does not

2:49

have to worry about that. So in a

2:51

in a 2024 general election, what is Trump

2:53

looking for? Well, you know, like President

2:55

Biden, Trump is facing concerns about

2:57

his age. They're both right around

2:59

80 years old. And so whoever

3:01

their VPs are, we know

3:03

who President Biden's is, but whoever whoever

3:05

Trump's pick is, could very likely if

3:07

Trump is elected have to step in

3:09

in some capacity. So that's on people's

3:11

minds. So he might want someone younger. Even

3:14

a lot of Republican voters express concerns about

3:16

his temperament. They say they kind of like it,

3:19

but they also are concerned about it sometimes.

3:21

So he may be under pressure to pick someone

3:23

with a track record that suggests more

3:25

stability or moderation. But

3:28

that is, of course, is assuming he would

3:30

bend to that pressure, which I would not

3:32

assume, you know, to remedy someone's deficiencies. You

3:34

have to convince them that they that they

3:37

have those deficiencies. So I'm sure those conversations

3:39

with political advisors are interesting. He is,

3:41

of course, an older white male. Now, that's

3:43

not something Republicans are as inclined to be

3:45

worried about. But he does like

3:47

to claim that his policies are good for

3:49

women, good for people of color. And picking

3:51

a candidate based on those criteria might insulate

3:54

him from some of the criticism around

3:56

those issues and also, you know, at least help him

3:58

make the argument to General election voters that he

4:01

cares about women or people of color. You know,

4:03

it's interesting, Sarah just said that in Iowa, the

4:05

exit polls showed that he has no problems

4:07

with his base or evangelicals. But

4:09

the New Hampshire exit polls showed

4:11

that he does have problems with

4:13

independents and moderates and

4:16

he did very poorly among those.

4:18

He did great among regular Republicans.

4:21

So the question I have is,

4:23

you know, Donald Trump often acts as

4:25

if he believes in the political

4:27

version of the cable news business

4:30

model, which means you don't have to have

4:32

a large audience or even an expanding audience.

4:34

You just have to get the people that

4:36

are your audience to watch you 24 seven. In

4:38

other words, he always seemed to value intensity

4:41

and devotion among his base

4:43

trying to get more voters.

4:46

And if that's what he believes, that it's

4:48

all about getting a really

4:51

enthusiastic group of supporters, then maybe

4:53

he would go for somebody

4:55

that is just as mega as him. But

4:57

to your point, Mara, about New Hampshire, I

4:59

agree that, you know, he won New Hampshire,

5:01

which really set the tone that he's on

5:04

the march to the nomination. But there was

5:06

a lot in New Hampshire that suggested big

5:08

red flags for a general electorate. And the

5:10

question I also have with Trump is that,

5:12

you know, traditionally you win the nomination and

5:14

you appeal to a broader part of the

5:17

electorate. He doesn't seem like a candidate that

5:19

is particularly well positioned to do that. No,

5:21

not even interested. And is he even interested

5:23

in picking a vice president that might? Yeah,

5:26

that's what I'm saying. I think specifically with

5:28

like suburban women or people that the

5:30

point that Nikki Haley has made in the primary race

5:33

that it's just chaos. And that was the thing we

5:35

heard a lot about Trump in 2020 for people had

5:37

turned on. They were tired of the chaos, a stabilizing

5:39

force potentially on the ticket. But whether you can sell

5:41

that to voters is a big question mark. Right.

5:44

And also we do know that over time, the vice president I

5:47

think has mattered less and less. It's

5:49

hard for me to think of a vice president recently

5:52

who actually brought a state. And

5:55

also Trump is such a dominating

5:57

character and he is the definition

6:00

now of the Republican Party that I

6:02

can't imagine that his vice president would

6:04

make a huge amount of difference. On

6:07

this question of appealing to moderates, what I keep

6:09

thinking about is this conversation I had with kind

6:11

of a low-level Trump advisor during the 2016 campaign

6:14

cycle who said, you know, most

6:16

candidates appeal to the middle and

6:18

then sort of bring in the

6:20

fringes. Trump appealed to the

6:22

fringes and brought in the middle. And

6:25

so, you know, I think the question is, is

6:28

he willing to try to appeal to the middle

6:30

with his vice presidential pick? Mara, one

6:33

of the things I think is going to be a

6:35

bind for Trump if he does go in that direction

6:37

is that he still maintains, and as recently

6:39

as his victory speech in New Hampshire earlier

6:41

this week, that the election was stolen. He

6:43

falsely claimed that he won millions more votes.

6:45

He still campaigns as if he were the

6:47

legitimately elected president of the United States. He

6:49

was not. In order to

6:51

appeal to that middle, that people are tired

6:54

of the chaos, people are tired of that

6:56

part of Trumpism, you'd almost have

6:58

to pick a vice president who could go out there and

7:00

say that Joe Biden was the duly elected president of the

7:02

United States in 2020, and I don't see

7:04

a world in which Donald Trump wants to campaign with somebody

7:06

who would say that. No, I don't think so.

7:09

And you also have to think about that

7:11

narrows the universe. Nikki Haley has said that

7:13

she accepts that Joe Biden was legitimately elected.

7:16

But I think the way that a lot

7:18

of Republicans are navigating this is to sort

7:20

of, yes, sort of check

7:22

the box and say, yes, they accept the results

7:24

of the 2020 election, but still to

7:27

sort of cast doubt on the system

7:29

or the process or to say, you know, something I

7:31

hear from both politicians and a

7:33

lot of voters is this idea that, well,

7:35

something was off, and a sort of vague

7:37

idea that something was off, even though review

7:39

after review, we cannot say

7:41

enough, has confirmed, including reviews by

7:43

Republican election officials, that the results

7:45

were valid and there was no

7:48

significant anomaly in the voting. But

7:50

I think this idea that just there must be

7:52

something going wrong here somewhere is this vague

7:54

idea that Republican voters have. And I think

7:56

that politicians can get away with Republican

7:59

politicians. can get away with saying that

8:01

to sort of speak to that gut feeling that a

8:03

lot of voters have without outright denying

8:05

the results of the election. All right, let's

8:07

take a quick break. And when we get

8:09

back, we'll talk about possible names in the

8:11

Veep Stakes. The

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9:27

And we're back. And Sarah, let's talk about

9:29

some of the names that could likely be

9:32

on a Trump running mate list. I think

9:34

one of the places that nominees tend to

9:36

look to, at least historically, is

9:38

their field of rivals from the primary campaign.

9:40

So who among there might

9:43

stand out on this list? Well, I

9:45

would certainly look at the gentlemen on

9:47

the stage with Trump on primary night

9:49

in New Hampshire. We saw two of

9:51

its former rivals, Vivek Ramaswamy and South

9:53

Carolina Senator Tim Scott, standing there with

9:55

him. They've endorsed him as has Florida

9:58

Governor Ron DeSantis, who was not there that night. night.

10:01

And they certainly seem to want the job,

10:03

especially if you listen to Tim Scott and

10:05

the way he interacted with Trump. You must

10:07

really hate her. No,

10:11

it's a shame. It's a shame.

10:13

Uh-oh. I

10:16

just love you. No, that's why

10:18

he's a great politician. Tim

10:20

Scott, of course, was appointed initially before he

10:22

was elected by Nikki Haley when there was

10:24

a vacancy in the Senate. It sure

10:26

sounds like he wants the job based on the way he and

10:29

Trump were talking about Haley. Yeah, that was kind

10:31

of a little cringe because I feel like he

10:33

was trying a little too hard in that moment.

10:35

If there was any doubt Tim Scott is auditioning

10:37

for vice president, it seemed pretty clear the night

10:39

of New Hampshire. But, Mara, that

10:41

does raise the question of Nikki Haley, because

10:43

look, she seems to fit the bill of

10:45

everything we just discussed. She appeals more to

10:48

independence, to women, and to the center. She

10:50

doesn't deny that Joe Biden was lawfully elected

10:52

the president of the United States, and she

10:54

represents a wing of the party that has

10:56

soured on Donald Trump. But

10:58

these two people don't seem to like each other very much.

11:01

They certainly don't seem to like each

11:03

other now. However, if you're going to

11:05

be on the ticket with Donald Trump

11:07

and he wins, that is about one

11:09

of the fastest routes to possibly becoming

11:11

president, because he cannot serve a second

11:13

term. So I think any ambitious politician,

11:16

especially in the Trump Republican Party, would

11:18

find a way to grovel or kiss

11:20

the ring, as Trump sometimes

11:22

says, bend the knee and get

11:24

on the ticket. Right now, there seems

11:27

to be a lot of animus. Trump

11:29

even accused her of giving a victory

11:31

speech when she lost. Hmm, who else has

11:33

done that? But,

11:35

yeah, it seems kind of far-fetched,

11:37

although on paper, and according to all

11:39

the old historical rules, she would be

11:41

the perfect vice presidential pick, because she

11:43

does bring him something. She brings him

11:46

something that he doesn't have now, which

11:48

is strong support among independents, moderate Republicans.

11:51

Sarah, you've been tracking the Haley campaign much more

11:53

closely. Has she given herself

11:55

anyway in the wiggle room here, or has she carved

11:57

out a place like I think of former Governor Ronda

11:59

Santas? It just doesn't seem like he's

12:01

going to be any potential vice presidential list

12:04

for many, many reasons. But has she acknowledged

12:06

this possibility? Does she talk it up or

12:08

down in any way? It's

12:10

not something she talks about. I think she's

12:12

given herself a little wiggle room in the

12:14

sense that she's going after both Trump and

12:17

Biden in the same breath and in pretty

12:19

much every campaign speech. I mean, her whole

12:21

pitch right now is that she's a, quote

12:23

unquote, better choice than either Trump or Joe

12:25

Biden and also that she could

12:27

beat Joe Biden. So she's really trying to sell

12:29

herself to moderate voters in the Republican

12:31

Party who don't want Trump and also

12:33

to appeal to people who may be

12:35

uneasy about Biden for whatever reason. So,

12:38

yeah, I think she's given herself room in the

12:40

sense that, yes, she's attacked Trump, but she's not

12:42

just attacking Trump. She's also said

12:45

that she would ultimately support him if he's

12:47

the nominee, even if he were convicted of

12:49

a crime. So she said that. My

12:52

bigger question, Sue, is if Trump

12:54

would ever warm back up to her because

12:56

he's clearly angry as Mara was just saying,

12:58

Trump recently said that people who donate

13:01

to Nikki Haley's campaign would be permanently

13:03

barred from MAGA World,

13:05

essentially. Nikki Haley seems to

13:07

be leaning into that. Her campaign just tweeted out

13:09

a picture of a t-shirt that says barred permanently

13:12

and says get yours now. So they're having fun

13:14

with that. Yeah, it's hard to like, it's always

13:16

hard to predict anything Trump does, but historically, like

13:18

the nominee has to kind of like the person

13:20

that's their running mate. It has to be a

13:23

bit of a gut check that was at least

13:25

part of the rationale why Hillary

13:27

Clinton tapped Virginia Governor Tim Kaine

13:30

in 2016. She just said she really

13:32

liked him on a personal level. I think that was

13:34

true between Barack Obama and Joe Biden back in 2008.

13:37

And who knows, right? Who knows how he feels

13:39

about her, if he could change his mind. Although

13:42

he also, Mara, tends

13:45

to make decisions if he thinks it's politically beneficial

13:47

for him. Yes, and you could

13:49

make the argument that putting Nikki Haley on the ticket is

13:51

politically beneficial for him. She's a

13:53

woman, she's a person of color, she brings

13:55

these disaffected Republicans perhaps back into the fold.

13:58

There are a lot of reasons why. to

14:00

pick her. She would have to show

14:02

him, of course, you know, he does have these

14:04

auditions. Remember, Mitt Romney had a particularly humiliating one.

14:07

She'd have to show him that she was ready to,

14:09

as he puts it, bend the knee and maybe, you

14:12

know, go back on a lot of the

14:14

criticism she made of him and be

14:16

a good deferential vice president. Speaking

14:18

of deferential, I also think, you

14:21

know, often vice presidents

14:23

come from Capitol Hill. And I would say that

14:25

if you were putting names out there,

14:27

a couple of names come to mind specifically, obviously,

14:29

you referenced him Scott in the Senate, but in

14:31

the House. Nancy Mace, the Republican

14:33

from South Carolina, is someone whose name gets

14:36

thrown out there. And also Elise Stefanik,

14:38

a Republican from New York, a member

14:40

of House Party leadership and someone who

14:43

has very methodically and very diligently worked

14:45

to establish herself as one of Trump's

14:47

strongest allies on Capitol Hill. I'm proud

14:49

to be the first member of Congress

14:52

to have endorsed President Trump for reelection,

14:54

the first. And I would

14:56

be honored to serve in a Trump administration

14:58

in any capacity. Yeah, Nikki Haley's not the

15:01

only female Republican that Trump has to choose

15:03

from. And Stefanik seems to be campaigning for

15:05

the job pretty openly. Mara, one

15:07

thing I think is worth thinking about

15:10

Elise Stefanik in the context of vice

15:12

president is I do think that Republicans

15:14

want to put up a strong candidate

15:16

for two reasons. One, Donald Trump

15:18

is a one term president if he runs

15:20

again. So whoever he picks as vice president

15:22

is going to be seen as a likely

15:24

2028 nominee. And that person is going

15:27

to be going up against potentially a debate. We

15:29

don't know if there will be debates, but if

15:31

there is a debate against vice president Kamala Harris.

15:33

And there is a real hunger among

15:35

Republicans to not just campaign against Joe

15:37

Biden, but to campaign against Kamala Harris as

15:39

sort of the de facto president. And I

15:42

think you can see the argument for

15:44

putting up a woman, someone who has a bit

15:46

of an attack dog reputation. I think Trump has

15:48

called her a killer, which is one of the

15:50

finest compliments. He can pay a politician. And

15:52

I think the Kamala Harris factor should

15:54

be noted here. The Kamala Harris factory

15:56

is huge. One

15:59

of the things that Republicans... have been doing, and I

16:01

think you can expect to hear them do it a lot

16:03

more, how about on a daily basis, is

16:05

that because Joe Biden is 81, because

16:08

he's called himself a transitional figure,

16:10

that they will be saying Kamala

16:12

Harris is the real nominee, the

16:14

real candidate, because Biden will

16:16

not serve out his full term and

16:19

she will become the president. Therefore, she's

16:21

the real nominee. And this is exactly,

16:23

by the way, how Nikki Haley has been threading the

16:25

needle on this, needing to be pro-Trump

16:28

enough, but not too pro-Trump, and

16:30

justifying her support for him by saying

16:34

she doesn't want Kamala Harris

16:36

as the president. A Trump

16:38

nomination is a Biden win

16:40

and a Kamala Harris presidency. I also just think

16:42

we have to, because this is the Veep Stakes

16:44

and we have to leave ourselves wiggle room if

16:47

it's someone we don't mention at all in this

16:49

conversation, I think there is

16:51

room in this political moment and for Trump

16:53

for sort of a wild card pick in

16:55

that the driving force of his campaign is

16:58

that he needs to shake up

17:00

Washington, that Washington needs to be broken up, that

17:02

he is the ultimate outsider, that he's disruption to

17:04

the norm, and picking a governor

17:06

or a senator or a house member just

17:08

feels so typical politics

17:10

as usual. I personally

17:12

am doubtful that Trump thinks that he needs

17:14

a strong running mate. I think that Trump

17:17

thinks he's a strong nominee. So the ability

17:19

to pick someone from maybe the business world

17:21

or someone from a military background or somebody

17:23

we're not really thinking about seems more possible

17:25

in this political moment than it

17:27

has to be in past elections where it

17:29

always seems pretty clear the universe of people

17:31

that it was going to be. Rama Swamy

17:33

might fit that category, right? He's younger, he's

17:35

also a person of color, and his background

17:37

is from the business world and he's also

17:40

clearly looking like he wants to be

17:42

close to Trump. He has been a totally

17:44

loyal opponent the whole time. But what's interesting

17:46

is, first of all, I doubt Trump would

17:48

pick anybody who was a bigger celebrity than

17:50

him or had the potential to overshadow him.

17:52

But remember, he made a lot of picks just the

17:54

way Sue was describing. Tillerson,

17:57

Mattis, you know, he picked people that

17:59

he... he thought from

18:01

the business world, military people, and

18:03

they all didn't work out so well. Yeah.

18:06

Well, this is probably the first of

18:08

many Veepstakes conversations because historically, the nominee

18:10

announces their vice president right around the

18:13

nominating conventions in the summertime. But again,

18:15

with Trump, you never know. It could

18:17

be any day now. That

18:19

is it for us today. I'm Susan

18:21

Davis. I cover politics. I'm Sarah McCanneman.

18:23

I cover the presidential campaign. And I'm

18:25

Mara Luyesen, national political correspondent. And

18:28

thanks for listening to the NPR politics podcast. Know

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