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0:55

Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm

0:57

Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm

1:00

Tom Bowman. I cover the Pentagon. And Emily

1:02

Fang, NPR's correspondent in Taiwan, joins us

1:04

now. Hello, Emily. Hey, thanks for

1:06

having me. So today on the

1:08

podcast, we're talking about the U.S. relationship

1:11

with Taiwan. President Biden has committed to

1:13

defending Taiwan and its democracy in the

1:15

event of a military attack by China,

1:17

which of course views Taiwan as part

1:19

of its country. A recent

1:21

foreign aid package for Ukraine and

1:24

Israel also included billions of dollars

1:26

for the Indo-Pacific region, but specifically

1:28

to bolster defense capabilities around Taiwan.

1:31

Emily, can you take a step back and

1:33

explain for our listeners who are not experts

1:35

on this issue or the region? What

1:39

exactly is the U.S. interest here

1:41

in protecting Taiwan? Well, number one,

1:43

it's curbing China's influence, and

1:45

this dates back to the early days of the

1:47

Cold War, when that's explicitly

1:49

what Taiwan was for. Since

1:52

then, Taiwan has evolved into this vibrant

1:54

democracy, so it's become also a moral

1:56

and ideological point to protect the democracy

1:58

that exists in Taiwan. Taiwan

2:00

against China, it's remained this massively

2:02

strategic location and what the US calls

2:05

its first island chain strategy. So Taiwan

2:07

is part of the Philippines and

2:09

Japan and this ring of essentially military

2:11

bases that were once used to contain

2:14

the Soviet Union in China and

2:16

now are an important bulwark

2:18

to the network of US military

2:20

alliances around the world. But

2:22

the interest is now commercial as well. There's just

2:25

a huge amount of global shipping and oil

2:27

and gas and things like semiconductors that are

2:29

made or pass through the waters around

2:31

Taiwan. So it's become more important

2:34

than ever. Tom, do you

2:36

see something specific about this moment that

2:38

seems to be heightening these tensions which

2:40

Emily just articulated have long existed? Is

2:44

this just part of the broader escalation of

2:46

tensions we've seen between the US and China?

2:48

Is there something else going on here? Well,

2:50

I think a couple of things. President Xi

2:52

Jinping has basically said he wants to take

2:54

back Taiwan. He will do it

2:56

militarily if necessary. And also going back over

2:59

the past couple of decades, China has put

3:01

a huge amount of money into building up

3:03

its military. It's not on par with the

3:05

US, but it is in some ways reaching

3:08

almost a status on

3:10

par in

3:12

some areas, particularly in space.

3:15

They're building anti-satellite weapons

3:17

in space, cyber. They're

3:19

putting a lot of money into that. They're building

3:21

a lot more fifth generation fighters, as they say,

3:24

and aircraft carriers. And the big

3:27

thing is coercive

3:29

measures around the

3:31

region, particularly with Taiwan. When

3:33

the president, the recent president in Taiwan

3:35

was inaugurated, gave his speech, China

3:38

then sent ships all around

3:40

Taiwan, almost like a blockade.

3:43

They did similar move

3:45

when Nancy Pelosi went there.

3:47

So there is a concern with Xi

3:51

Jinping that he wants to maybe

3:53

move more aggressively against Taiwan. And

3:56

US military officials say they think they

3:58

would have the capability of taking

4:00

Taiwan militarily by 2027. Wow.

4:04

And Emily, as Tom just said, Taiwan just recently

4:07

had elections. Has the new president changed positions at

4:09

all? So yes,

4:11

Taiwan has a new president. He has sworn

4:13

to uphold the policies of the previous

4:16

president, but he also gave this inauguration

4:18

speech a couple of weeks ago that

4:20

depending on what your politics are and

4:23

who you swear allegiance to, people

4:25

have read in very different ways. In

4:28

Taiwan, his political party, President Lai's political

4:30

party, has said that nothing,

4:32

the status quo between China and

4:34

Taiwan has not changed, but China

4:36

has said that his speech used

4:38

certain phrases and terminology

4:41

that seemed to signify Taiwan

4:43

saw itself as an independent

4:45

country without formally declaring independence.

4:48

And within days of Taiwan's new president

4:50

being inaugurated, Taiwan's military said it was

4:52

going to launch more military

4:55

drills encircling the entire islands that

4:57

were even bigger in some

4:59

ways than previous drills. And

5:01

they said these drills were explicitly

5:03

in reaction to Lai's speech to

5:06

punish Taiwan for being

5:08

too pro-independence. Obviously

5:11

people in Taiwan don't feel that Lai broke

5:13

any kind of status quo, but the fact

5:15

of the matter is that China is really

5:17

upset and at a big defense summit just

5:19

a few days ago in Singapore, China's defense

5:21

chief came up and said,

5:23

listen, if Taiwan's leaders continue to put

5:26

out what China sees as

5:28

very pro-independence rhetoric, they're going to hit

5:30

back even harder. I mean, Tom,

5:32

this is so interesting because in

5:34

diplomatic situations like this, words and the rhetoric

5:37

matter so much and everything is parsed.

5:39

And yet you also saw Defense Secretary

5:41

Lloyd Austin in the region recently also

5:43

using really tough language. Right.

5:46

So he said, listen, no country in the area should

5:48

be coerced. He talked

5:50

about the military drills that were

5:52

held around Taiwan. He called it

5:54

so-called punishment. But

5:56

his Chinese counterpart also said,

5:59

listen, anybody. attempting to separate Taiwan

6:01

from China is bound to be

6:03

smashed to pieces. So the rhetoric

6:05

has really increased there. So

6:08

I was in Singapore, I was at this

6:10

defense conference that the US Defense Chief and

6:12

the Chinese Defense Chief were at. And

6:14

I go every year because it's the one

6:17

chance where you can actually talk for an

6:19

extended period of time with Chinese military officials.

6:21

Normally, they're very guarded and inaccessible in China.

6:24

But I asked them, what do you think is

6:26

your defense chief's speech? Their

6:28

interpretation is this is a message for peace.

6:31

Basically, China kept trying to signal in that

6:33

speech, we don't want to fight. And we

6:35

know that the US and Taiwan don't want

6:37

to fight. So please tone

6:40

down the rhetoric. Someone reigned in Taiwan's

6:42

president because we really don't want to

6:44

have to fight, but we're prepared to

6:46

do so if Taiwan in their eyes

6:49

continues to misbehave. Unfortunately,

6:51

they just said it in such an

6:54

aggressive way and offered

6:56

no room for compromise that

6:58

I think it just turned up the temperature more,

7:00

unfortunately. Yeah. All right, let's take a quick break. And

7:03

we'll talk more about this when we get back. Support

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additional $200. And

8:35

we're back. And Emily, China has been such

8:38

a focus of politics here in the U.S.

8:40

for both President Biden and former

8:42

President Trump, but I'm curious for

8:44

the perspective on our election from

8:46

your vantage point and from the people

8:48

you talk to, how closely are people following

8:51

the U.S. presidential election here? Pretty

8:53

closely in Taiwan because the U.S.

8:57

is a really, really important security

8:59

guarantor of Taiwan. President

9:01

Trump, in his term

9:03

as president, was not a very stable,

9:06

shall we say, partner for Taiwan. Now

9:08

that he is not president, he's also made comments

9:10

that he thinks the U.S. is too reliant on

9:13

Taiwan, semiconductor and technology industry, and that's something he

9:15

would try to take down a peg if he

9:17

were president again. So people in

9:19

Taiwan don't know if he's going to be hard

9:22

on China, which would make some people in Taiwan happy,

9:24

or whether he's going to be both hitting back at

9:26

Taiwan at the same time that he's trying

9:28

to curb China's influence. All of

9:31

it is amplifying already existing

9:33

political uncertainty in Taiwan's domestic political scene,

9:35

where in just the first few weeks

9:37

of the new presidency, there's been mass

9:40

protests and fights in the legislature,

9:42

so U.S. politics could only magnify

9:44

that discord even more. Tom, I

9:46

do think that there is some confusion

9:49

over what maybe President Trump would do

9:51

with Taiwan, and President Biden has been

9:54

more clear, but I do think it's

9:56

worth reminding people that when you look to the other

9:58

parts of the government, like on Capitol Hill, There

10:00

is vast bipartisan support for the

10:02

US to stand with Taiwan. This

10:05

isn't as controversial an issue Down

10:08

the ballot as I might say as it might be with

10:10

the people leading the party. No, I think that's

10:12

right I think both parties have strong support for

10:14

Taiwan. The only thing about Trump I would say

10:16

with militarily speaking is providing billions

10:19

more dollars for Taiwan. I could see him

10:21

like he said in Ukraine Let's make it

10:23

a loan. Yeah, not just give them money.

10:25

So that's a possibility but

10:27

again, I think with With

10:30

both parties supporting Taiwan, I think

10:32

regardless of who wins in November

10:34

There's still a lot of support

10:36

for Taiwan and also a lot

10:38

more money heading that way into

10:41

defensive capabilities Tom can I ask

10:43

you a question? Especially because Taiwan was

10:45

part of this broader funding package

10:48

About the geopolitics of the moment and I wonder

10:50

if you see any connective tissue between

10:54

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and a potential

10:56

Chinese invasion of Taiwan in that at

10:58

the very least It's providing sort of

11:00

a playbook of how the US would

11:03

respond to an adversary invading

11:05

an ally Well, I think there

11:07

were a couple of things. I think the US

11:09

looks at Ukraine We need to support Ukraine the

11:11

US would say Because if we

11:13

don't that's going to send the message to China

11:15

that you that the US won't stand by its

11:18

allies or friends That's a big big

11:20

part of the package as well And

11:23

I think looking at you know, the

11:25

future with a possible war with China

11:28

I think the US is looking at

11:30

again a some sort of they call it

11:32

a porcupine defense To not

11:35

make it easy for China to take

11:37

over Taiwan layered defense and that's

11:39

what they're pushing with with the

11:41

Taiwanese But the big thing I

11:43

think strategically is if we

11:45

don't support Ukraine That's going to send the

11:47

message to China that the US doesn't stand

11:49

by its friends Emily What

11:52

are you watching for from here? Is it

11:55

just sort of an outcome of the election here? Is

11:57

there things on the ground there that you're covering more

11:59

closely? to see the next sort of turn in this. I

12:02

think three things. I mean, I wonder how the US might

12:05

work with Taiwan's new leadership that, although

12:07

it says wants to continue the policies

12:09

of its predecessors, has taken

12:11

already a much more strident tone

12:13

and whether the US is going to have challenges

12:16

balancing that basically with tensions

12:18

with China. Two, speaking

12:20

about arming Taiwan, there are still massive

12:22

delays in getting weapons that the US

12:24

has already sold or given to Taiwan.

12:27

Sometimes the lead time is like as long as two

12:29

years. And so the US really

12:31

needs to work on that. And

12:34

third, I'm looking at the South China

12:36

Sea, which Taiwan is a

12:38

part of, but it involves countries

12:40

like the Philippines, which have been

12:42

very, very outspoken. And I'm actually much more

12:44

worried about hot conflict in the

12:47

short term between the Philippines and China than between

12:49

China and Taiwan. No,

12:52

that's a really good point because as

12:54

we've seen recently, China will use water

12:56

cannons against Philippine boats

12:58

in the area. And also the US has

13:00

offered to do patrols in the Philippines. And

13:02

the Philippines at this point have said, no,

13:04

we're not interested. We don't want to rattle

13:06

the cage too much when it comes to

13:08

China. But that could be something you see

13:10

down the road where the

13:13

US will actually, US ships will

13:15

accompany Philippine ships.

13:17

That's quite possible. I do know from

13:19

talking with senior military officials that for

13:21

a long time, what the Philippines were

13:23

worried about was, you know,

13:26

Islamist insurgents in the southern part

13:28

of the Philippines. That's

13:30

no longer a concern for them. They're much

13:32

more worried about China and they're providing some

13:34

training areas in the northern part of the

13:37

Philippines for the US. That's

13:39

fairly recent and that's significant. All right.

13:41

Emily Feng in Taiwan, thank you so much for coming on

13:43

today and explaining all this to us. My pleasure. That

13:46

is it for us today. We'll be back in your feeds

13:48

tomorrow. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Tom Bowman.

13:50

I cover the Pentagon. And I'm listening

13:52

to the MPO Policy Network. Support

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