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viori.com/propg. That's v-u-o-r-i.com/propg. Episode

1:25

305. 305 is

1:28

the area of belonging to parts of

1:30

Florida. True story, a man after killing

1:32

his partner and then eating his partner

1:34

took his dog for a walk. How

1:37

come you just knew that guy lived

1:39

in Florida? Not a joke,

1:42

not a joke. Go,

1:44

go, go! Oh!

1:54

Welcome to the 305th episode of the prop

1:56

G-Pod. I am still in the South of

1:58

France, the can lion. festival. My

2:01

PIVOT co-host Kara Swish and I recorded live

2:03

on stage at the Adweek House. You

2:06

can hear that episode over the PIVOT feed tomorrow.

2:08

It was lovely. It was lovely. We had Rosé

2:10

after. It was very nice. Also,

2:12

the Olympic torch came marching

2:14

through. Does anyone care? Does anyone

2:17

care about the Olympics anymore? I got invited to the

2:19

Olympics and I said to my kids, hey, do you

2:21

want to go to the Olympics? And they're like, what

2:23

are the Olympics? Literally, they're like, is it, do we

2:25

have football tickets? You know, soccer? And

2:27

I'm like, no. And they're like, no, we're not interested. We

2:29

don't want to hear, we don't want to

2:31

see a hundred hours of diving, swimming, and

2:33

discus throwing. They've just, it's just, it's such

2:36

an interesting case study and I don't know

2:38

the answer and why the Olympics have

2:40

fallen so far in the World Cup has

2:42

ascended at such an incredible

2:44

place. Anyways, I'm making the rounds again. I like it

2:46

here because people come up to me and say hi,

2:49

and I purposely take my boys into town because

2:51

I'm desperate for their affirmation. I want them to

2:53

see that what I do actually gets some recognition.

2:57

So what are we doing? We're skipping our news headlines

3:00

and busting right into our conversation with

3:02

Ruchir Sharma, the chairman of

3:04

Rockefeller International and founder and chief investment

3:06

officer of Breakout Capital, an investment firm

3:08

focused on emerging markets. We hear all

3:11

about Ruchir's new book, What Went Wrong

3:13

with Capitalism. Okay, Ruchir, where does this

3:15

podcast find you? I'm here in New

3:17

York in Midtown. Oh, nice. Well, let's

3:19

bust right into it. In your new book,

3:21

What Went Wrong with Capitalism, it's

3:24

really a critique of capitalism, a capitalist critique

3:26

of capitalism, as you say. So tell us,

3:29

how has this system been ruined? Yeah,

3:32

I think I was showing the book here, Scott,

3:34

which is the fact that if you

3:36

look at what's been happening in America,

3:39

pretty much a lot of the Western world

3:41

over the last few decades is

3:43

that we have progressively seen greater

3:45

and greater government intervention in

3:47

the economy. The suite of

3:49

habits extends to just more

3:52

than government spending. Government spending

3:54

in the share of the economy has gone up from

3:56

a century ago at just 3% when the government would

3:59

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is a paid advertisement. So

16:23

let's assume that we agree, that most people agree

16:25

that we need to cut government spending. Where

16:27

do you think we cut it? So that's the

16:29

point, right? Which is that, how do you

16:32

prioritize that? I mean, what is the Biden administration

16:34

done? It has just doubled down on its spending.

16:36

So now it's spending on everything. It's spending on

16:38

industrial policy, it's spending on the CHIPS Act. And

16:41

I think on an individual basis, when you

16:43

look at government spending, we all

16:45

think that yes, you know, like in terms of

16:47

each one is justified. But

16:50

I think that the thing is like we need to

16:52

prioritize that don't we need entitlement

16:54

reform? Should we really be spending on

16:56

industrial policy because our priorities are different?

16:59

If we want a welfare state, if we

17:01

want to give people lots of, you

17:03

know, like in terms of even

17:05

cash benefits as some people wanna

17:07

do, I think it's about prioritizing

17:10

that what can we do realistically? And

17:12

this thinking that debt and

17:14

deficits don't matter because so

17:16

many people for so long have been crying wolf

17:18

about this, right? Which is that in New York,

17:20

we have had these debt

17:23

clocks, which have been up

17:25

for decades. And it's because nothing has

17:27

happened. We think that what's the problem?

17:29

We can go on spending this way

17:31

and we can, and there

17:34

is no real consequence to that. And

17:36

what I try and sort of show here is that

17:38

yes, there is a consequence. One that

17:40

because of this, we have already

17:43

seen a decline in terms of productivity because

17:45

of the suite of government habits. And

17:47

two that now we are taking this just

17:49

to a ridiculous extent that America used

17:52

to run a budget deficit of around

17:54

3% of GDP for the last couple

17:56

of decades. It was in

17:58

line with other developed. Today, we're

18:00

running that at 6% of

18:03

GDP, way higher than any

18:05

developed country in the world, and

18:08

our public debt as a share of

18:10

the overall economy has crossed 100% and

18:12

is only behind that

18:15

of Japan and Italy. And at this pace,

18:17

we'll be higher than Italy by the end

18:19

of the decade. So I think that the

18:21

problem is this, which is that the

18:24

argument that debt and deficits will

18:26

cause a crisis seems very

18:28

stale now because nothing has happened for

18:31

despite these crises warnings for

18:33

so long. And there is

18:35

this real confidence which almost

18:37

borders on arrogance that because

18:39

we are America, the

18:41

world will keep funding it. We have the world's main

18:45

currency, which people use. So they keep buying

18:47

dollars and we'll never have a problem. It's

18:51

that kind of complacency and arrogance about where else

18:53

will the money go? It has to come

18:55

here, which sort of bothers me. And

18:57

we were not that way. And in fact, I

19:00

have still like a lot of great things

19:02

about America, but I think that what's happened

19:05

now is that we've just taken this to

19:07

another extreme. So

19:10

the Biden administration calls you and says, okay,

19:12

give us two or three things, magic one,

19:14

you would want to see implemented right away

19:16

in terms of policy or laws or tax

19:18

policy. What would those two or three things

19:20

be? Yeah, I'd say

19:23

that in terms of... I know that nobody

19:25

listens until they have a crisis. So I

19:27

thought I'm going to get that call, but

19:29

still I think that let's think about it.

19:31

I'd say that in terms of one, you know,

19:33

like stuff is that think about every time you

19:36

do a new regulation, who's it

19:38

hurting and who's it benefiting? I

19:40

mean, I put a freeze on that. I mean,

19:42

Trump tried something like that, but it was a

19:44

failure by the end because, you

19:47

know, you couldn't focus on anything.

19:49

So talked about not putting new regulation, but

19:51

by the end of the administration, there were tons of

19:53

new regulations which were going on. So

19:55

I'd say that in terms of focusing, in terms

19:57

of, okay. tougher

20:00

antitrust regulation, yes, I'm in favor

20:02

of that. But the vast swath

20:04

of regulations that are put in

20:06

there really hurt small and big

20:08

size businesses. So think about putting

20:11

in your new regulation. Two, you have

20:13

to think about the debt and deficits,

20:15

which is that don't have this callous

20:17

attitude that nothing has happened,

20:20

there's been no crisis. So we can keep

20:22

running deficits. We are at full employment in

20:24

the economy and we have a 6% budget

20:26

deficit already. Imagine if you have a

20:28

downturn, it will be 9 or 10%. So

20:30

I would say that in terms of the

20:33

open ended chips and industrial policy, we need

20:35

to put a check on that. And I

20:37

think that the other thing that I would

20:39

say also is the fact that to make

20:41

a very clear statement that we're not gonna

20:44

bail out companies at the slightest hint of

20:46

trouble. I mean, that statement needs to go

20:48

out because today you speak to people in

20:50

private, in the private equity world or other

20:52

places. There is a simplistic assumption that, what

20:55

the hell do we give it a punt? And if

20:57

it doesn't work, yeah, the government's

21:00

there to back us out. So that

21:02

sort of thinking has to go away. So

21:05

these are just broad points I would say

21:07

at this stage that we need to think

21:09

about. A

21:11

moral hazard. So, Roshira, you

21:13

have done a great deal of work

21:15

on India. Can you give us, I

21:18

would love for you just to sort of give us the

21:20

cliff notes on the Indian economy and what you think the

21:22

prospects are for the Indian economy over

21:24

the next several years. Yeah,

21:27

so in fact, I begin this book in

21:29

the prologue by speaking about my journey from

21:31

India because as you say, I was born

21:33

there and India was a truly socialist

21:35

economy when I was born in the mid 1970s. And

21:40

so I saw what socialism could do. But

21:43

fortunately for India, after especially it faced

21:45

an economic crisis in 1991, it's

21:48

progressively been getting freer, progressively

21:51

been moving up the indices

21:53

of economic freedom. And

21:55

so therefore, I've been

21:57

much more optimistic about the economy as

21:59

the... that's happened. But my favorite line

22:01

about India that I came up with a few years ago

22:03

is that this is a country

22:06

that consistently disappoints the optimists and the

22:08

pessimists. So there's a lot

22:10

of optimism I have, but I would

22:12

keep it in check to know that

22:14

this is a pretty complex country. It's

22:16

not a homogeneous country like China, which

22:19

moves in one direction. It's very heterogeneous,

22:21

very diverse. So you've got different things

22:23

and different places which play

22:25

itself out. But generally I remain optimistic.

22:28

I see that the trajectory is positive.

22:30

And of course we

22:32

can't not have this conversation and

22:34

speak about the landmark election result.

22:36

And that was a very hopeful

22:38

sign, which is the fact that

22:40

it's a country which believes in

22:42

its democratic tradition. And I

22:44

think that that's something which also helps the long

22:46

term because this is a lot of research that

22:48

I've done. Under Modi there was

22:51

a real fear that India was moving

22:53

towards an authoritarian direction.

22:55

Now you'll argue maybe that's good for its

22:57

economy because you're moving in an authoritarian direction

22:59

and you can take tougher decisions. But the

23:01

research I've done on this is the fact

23:04

that under authoritarian regimes

23:06

you end up either getting very good

23:08

economic outcomes for a while or you

23:11

end up getting disastrous economic outcomes because there's

23:13

no one to tell you when you go

23:15

wrong. And I think that

23:17

there was a risk that India was moving in

23:20

that direction. There's more checks and balances here. And

23:22

typically over time democracies tend

23:25

to compound much better in terms

23:27

of growth rates than authoritarian regimes

23:29

do. So I feel relatively

23:31

optimistic about India. Yes there'll

23:33

be some sort of bitter

23:35

fights politically after the election result

23:37

last week where the opposition feels emboldened. But

23:39

I think that you know it's moving in

23:41

the right direction. The only thing I'll keep

23:43

in check is expectation that this is no

23:45

next China which is going to grow at

23:47

9 or 10 percent. It's going to

23:49

be more like a 6-7 percent type

23:52

growth rate at best that we see in

23:54

India for the foreseeable future. So

23:56

now do you care. I live in London and

23:58

I just be curious. You obviously

24:01

spent a lot of time thinking about how you're

24:03

titled, 10 rules

24:05

for successful nations and breakout nations in pursuit of

24:07

the next economic miracle. Let's assume this is not

24:10

going to be an economic miracle. I think that

24:12

ship is sailed. But what

24:14

rules are they following or breaking

24:17

or not adhering to when we

24:19

talk about successful nations? Well,

24:22

unfortunately, I think that UK doesn't rank

24:24

well, because as you rightly say that,

24:27

I maintain this ranking of all

24:29

these countries and where they rank

24:31

on these various metrics. And in

24:33

the Anglo-Saxon world, of course, the

24:36

country that has been doing the

24:38

worst, which I think is a bit of a surprise and

24:40

a road about that is Canada. That's been

24:42

the worst really over the last 10, 15 years. And

24:45

then next comes UK, then Australia. And

24:47

the US compared to these countries

24:49

has been doing relatively better. And that's the irony

24:51

of it. In terms of

24:54

all the problems we've spoken about in America. In

24:56

terms of all the problems we spoke about in

24:58

America, in terms of are

25:00

much more severe in places like UK, in

25:04

terms of what it's been doing with its deficits,

25:06

although America now is overtaking it

25:09

in terms of what it's been

25:11

doing in the number

25:13

of zombie companies. So I'd say that in that

25:15

regard, UK in fact ranks

25:17

even worse than America on most metrics.

25:21

So it's really fascinating, Australia,

25:23

Canada, and the UK not

25:26

doing well. So take them add

25:28

in the US. Aren't

25:31

we all guilty of overspending

25:35

capitalism on the way up, socialism

25:38

on the way down, cronyism, bloated

25:40

government, bailouts. But the

25:43

difference is the US has AI in

25:45

a tech sector that just creates so much

25:48

economic value and draws capital from the rest

25:50

of the world that at

25:52

least props up or wallpapers over our problems

25:54

more so than those other three nations. What

25:56

do you think? Absolutely correct. Yeah. So that's

25:59

the... That's my summary, which

26:01

is the fact that, it

26:04

just pains me that in terms of the

26:06

fact that I don't even compare America to

26:08

these other countries because America is still the

26:11

beacon for the world. It's still the largest

26:13

economy that everyone looks up to to see

26:15

as to what is American doing. And the

26:17

American brand of capitalism, unfortunately, has

26:19

been dented, but you're right, that these

26:22

Anglo-Saxon other economies that you pointed out

26:24

are arguably in

26:27

worse shape in doing things, even worse

26:30

than America is. And America, as

26:32

you point out, has the success

26:34

of the tech engine there. But

26:36

again, it's slightly concerning to me that

26:39

the, like in America, the domination

26:41

is getting so concentrated, that the

26:44

value is being created, but it's being

26:46

created in just very few select companies.

26:48

And I think that that is a

26:50

real problem. And communities. That's

26:53

so big. Yes. Yeah,

26:56

it is really striking. What do you think about

26:58

the notion of, so

27:01

the one thing we didn't talk about that

27:03

I think plays a big role in all of this is immigration

27:05

policy. Compare and

27:07

contrast different immigration policies across the nations you look

27:09

at, and what do you think is sort of,

27:11

if you will, the ideal, if

27:13

there is an ideal immigration policy, and what

27:15

does it indicate in terms of America's immigration

27:17

policy? Yeah, I think

27:20

that as far as America is concerned, even

27:22

though it's been a big problem in America

27:24

and it's a big political issue, America's at

27:26

least been better at assimilating

27:30

immigrants than a lot of European countries

27:33

in that regard. And I think that countries

27:35

like Australia and all have

27:38

been pretty good in terms

27:40

of as well. So I'd say that

27:42

generally here in the Anglo-Saxon world has

27:44

been better than Europe in terms of

27:47

assimilation of immigrants. But

27:49

again, as I said, that what is good

27:51

economics is not always, what's good

27:53

politics, which is that even last

27:56

year, like I pointed

27:58

out, that immigration is what we... helped

28:01

countries like America avoid

28:04

recession and bring inflation down much more

28:07

than in other countries did

28:10

last year. But the problem is the

28:12

fact that it's become such a political

28:14

issue about tearing apart the social fabric

28:16

and stuff that what is good economics

28:18

in obvious terms is not good politics

28:20

and I don't see that

28:23

changing. So I'd say that yes I think

28:25

that immigration is out of control for many

28:27

people out here in America and so we're

28:29

gonna get a clamp down on that regardless

28:31

I think of what happens in November.

28:34

But in general I would say America

28:37

in the Anglo-Saxon countries like Australia have

28:39

done a better job at

28:41

assimilating immigrants compared to European

28:43

countries like France. Well

28:46

let me say something that's I

28:51

don't know is wrought with emotion.

28:53

Is it that we've done a better job of assimilating or

28:56

we attract a different type of immigrant? Well

28:58

it could be both. I think a combination

29:00

of both right? Which is that in terms

29:02

of what's happening but I just look at

29:04

it more from a simulation but then you

29:07

start getting into cultural issues in terms of

29:09

who's coming and what's happening and that just

29:11

gets a very slippery slope in terms of

29:13

looking at immigration in that regard. So

29:17

looking at all the economies in the world what

29:20

two or three economies are you most bullish on

29:22

in terms of you mentioned that Canada is doing

29:24

really poorly, the UK is doing really poorly, America

29:27

you would argue is kind of like it sounds like

29:29

average to slightly above average. Any

29:31

other role models for you know I think of

29:33

certain countries in Southeast Asia or I think of

29:35

Singapore where we can look at

29:38

the way they've managed their economy and think

29:40

this is this is the role model? Well

29:42

I think yeah I think it depends on the time

29:45

frame but I think that the you know like the

29:47

economies that are you know happening sort

29:49

of good again which is the economy that's doing the

29:51

best in Europe these days? It's Greece

29:53

right? Which is that this is a

29:55

country which till 10 years ago was

29:57

like an example of a complete yeah.

30:00

if I can say so, a basket case in

30:03

terms of that. But just look at how

30:05

well Greece has come back. It's booming now.

30:07

It was again forced. This is what crisis

30:09

does. It is one silver

30:11

lining of a crisis. It's that it's the

30:13

only time when governments reform or change things

30:16

is when you have a crisis. So Greece

30:18

runs out of money, it's on the verge

30:20

of default, and then you end up getting

30:22

a lot of reform. So Greece, I think,

30:24

has been a comeback story.

30:26

In fact, in general, the club-made countries

30:28

of late have been doing better

30:30

than their continental peers. But

30:33

Greece is an example of that. Then secondly,

30:35

I would point to, like

30:38

in Eastern Europe in general, I'd say Poland

30:40

is a shining example of that, which is

30:42

that it's a country which I think is

30:44

next classified to becoming a developed country. Remember

30:46

that in the world today, there are more than 200

30:48

nations. Only 40 or so

30:51

are classified as developed countries. Everybody

30:53

else is classified as emerging, and

30:55

many of them from

30:57

Brazil to Mexico have been emerging forever, right? But

31:00

I'd say that it's been a while since

31:03

a major nation joined the ranks of

31:05

the developed countries. I think the

31:07

next one to do so could be Poland, which

31:09

is on the brink of getting

31:11

up our capital income of $20,000 or

31:14

so, which makes it like a developed

31:16

country. Again, a lot, it's done

31:18

right from having a very competitive manufacturing

31:20

sector, not too many flashy

31:22

billionaires. And in general,

31:24

I'd say that the election result

31:27

in Poland last year sort of

31:29

also took away some political risk because

31:31

it's a much more cooperative government that

31:34

it had in place vis-a-vis the

31:36

EU and the European Union helped it give it

31:39

some pretty strong institutions. So I'd

31:41

say that, like, I feel relatively

31:43

optimistic about these countries outside

31:45

of the core of Europe from Greece to Poland

31:48

as, you know, like for different reasons,

31:51

one's a comeback star and the other

31:53

one's been a consistent star in

31:55

the post-communist world. And

31:58

just before you go, we'd be remiss. if we

32:00

didn't ask you about China. Your thoughts? Well,

32:03

I've been bearish in China for a while now

32:05

because in terms of what's been

32:07

happening to its boats, the

32:09

two pillars of growth really, which is that

32:11

it's been relying a lot on, when

32:14

China boomed, it had great demographics. And

32:17

of course, when the boom slowed down, it could still

32:19

rely on taking on more and more

32:21

debt to keep going. Those engines

32:23

are now down. So I

32:25

feel that China is in a circular decline.

32:27

On a fundamental basis, I don't see China

32:29

growing at a rate of more than 2%

32:32

or 3% for the foreseeable future. So

32:34

I'd say that, yeah,

32:36

for now it seems that the

32:38

risk of a blow up in China has, sort

32:41

of been papered over because they've again,

32:43

done what it takes to keep the

32:45

economy afloat. But the problem in China

32:47

is the fact that they can't get away from

32:49

the basic notion that there is

32:52

no country in the world which is able to

32:54

grow rapidly, or even grow when it

32:56

has a negative population

32:58

growth rate. That headwind is just

33:01

very hard to overcome. And then second

33:03

obviously is the debt issue in China,

33:05

where China has took on

33:07

so much debt over the last decade because

33:10

it ambitiously wanted to keep its growth rate

33:12

up. But now it's being

33:14

forced to pay back that debt in a way,

33:17

the property sector and all, which took a lot of

33:19

that debt in the doghouse. So I

33:22

feel that, yeah, the China may not have a

33:24

blow up for a crisis, but it's sort

33:27

of going the way where the growth rate keeps

33:29

slipping and sliding and two or 3% is the

33:31

growth rate for China, which

33:34

is a far cry from where it was a decade

33:36

ago. Rishir Sharma is

33:38

chairman of Rockefeller International and founder and

33:41

chief investment officer of Breakout Capital, an

33:43

investment firm focused on emerging markets. He

33:45

moved to Rockefeller in 2022 after a

33:47

25 year career at

33:51

Morgan Stanley Investment Management, where he was

33:53

head of emerging markets and chief global

33:55

strategist. Rishir is also the

33:57

author of five books, including the 10. rules

34:00

of successful nations and breakout nations

34:02

in pursuit of the next economic

34:05

miracles. His latest book,

34:07

What Went Wrong with Capitalism, is out

34:09

now. He joins us from the greatest

34:11

city in the world, New York City.

34:13

Ruchir, thank you very much. Really enjoyed

34:15

this conversation. Thanks, Gaur. Thank you

34:17

for having me. We'll

34:20

be right back. Support

34:25

for this episode of Prop G comes from listening. Do

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more at media labs.intuit.com that's

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media labs.intuit.com to learn

37:03

more. The

37:16

most famous study on happiness, actually every study

37:18

on happiness, we never get data that's this

37:20

clean across. Geographies, cultures,

37:23

income levels, show us the

37:25

same thing. If on

37:27

the y-axis you have happiness and on the

37:29

x-axis you have age, happiness is a smile.

37:32

Zero to 25, Star Wars prom making out,

37:34

25 to 45 are

37:37

what I call the shit gets real

37:39

years. Life is hard. Money

37:41

troubles, relationships, someone you love a great deal gets

37:43

sick and die. I mean life just hits you

37:45

in the fucking face. It really does. You get

37:47

beamed in the face and you

37:49

think wow this is harder than I thought and what I

37:51

can tell you is a lot of people out there are

37:53

feeling the same way and if you're a

37:55

good person and you work hard I'm not just saying everything will

37:57

work out you need to make sure you're not stuck. You're

38:00

still working. Every night you're saying, what are the

38:02

three, four things I gotta get done tomorrow? You're

38:04

getting up, you're trying, you're showing up. You're

38:07

asking others for help. You're

38:09

expressing your emotions. And

38:12

then when you're in your 40s and 50s, something

38:15

wonderful happens. And that is you start to take,

38:18

I don't know, you start to find joy

38:20

in the most mundane things, nature, food, your

38:23

friendships. So what I would tell

38:25

you is if you're struggling in your 30s and

38:27

40s, I'm not suggesting just lay back

38:29

and everything's gonna work out, that's bullshit.

38:32

But what I can tell you is for

38:34

the majority of people, it does get better.

38:36

And again, if you're in

38:38

your 30s and things are tough, you're

38:41

kind of where you should be. And what I

38:43

would tell you is to keep on keeping on,

38:45

that life does get better, that happiness waits for

38:47

you. This

38:50

episode was produced by Caroline Shagren. Jennifer

38:52

Sanchez is our associate producer and

38:54

Drew Burrows is our technical director. Thank you for

38:57

listening to the Prof G Pod and the Vox

38:59

Media Podcast Network. We will catch you on Saturday

39:01

for No Mercy, No Malice as read by George

39:03

Hahn. And please follow

39:05

our Prof G Markets Pod, wherever

39:07

you get your pods for new

39:09

episodes every Monday and Thursday. Please,

39:12

if you can right now and you enjoyed the

39:14

show, go to Prof G Markets and

39:16

subscribe.