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When you really felt Just so

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overwhelmed. Then this is your sign to reach

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out to the 988 lifeline for

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24-7 free confidential support. You don't

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have to hide how you feel,

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text, call, or chat anytime. So

0:20

historically, out of the four

0:22

early voting states in the presidential nominating

0:24

process, Nevada often gets

0:26

the least amount of attention. It's

0:29

way out in the West, far from

0:31

Washington, D.C. And in

0:33

recent history, the state has voted by

0:36

caucus, a method that has long

0:38

been criticized for limiting who can vote. Because

0:40

generally, people have to show up

0:43

in person at a specific time. So

0:46

after 2020, and more of that

0:48

criticism, state officials decided

0:50

to scrap the caucus and hold a

0:52

primary. The Democrats

0:54

complied, and President Biden is expected

0:57

to win that primary today without

0:59

much competition. On

1:01

the Republican side, however, the

1:03

Trump campaign exerted pressure on Republican officials

1:05

in the state to hold

1:07

a separate caucus, a

1:09

method that's seen as more beneficial to Trump. And

1:12

the state party decided to do that, and

1:14

to make the caucus winner, not

1:16

the primary winner, the official

1:18

recipient of the state's presidential delegates, effectively

1:21

making Nevada switch to a

1:23

primary, meaningless. And

1:25

guaranteeing that Trump would leave the state

1:27

one step closer to the nomination. So

1:30

when Trump said this in New Hampshire, next

1:32

week it's Nevada, it's not South Carolina, we

1:34

love South Carolina, but next week it's Nevada.

1:37

And I'm pleased to announce we just won

1:39

Nevada. He

1:44

was basically right. From the

1:46

New York Times, I'm Estebb Herndon. This

1:49

is The Run-Up. To

1:53

understand that more, I called up my

1:55

colleague, Jenny Medina. Jenny, it's good to see you. Can

1:57

you tell me where you are right now, and then

1:59

tell me- where you were four years ago

2:01

with me at this time. Right

2:04

now, I'm in my house in Los Angeles,

2:07

but around this time last four years ago, we

2:09

were definitely in Las Vegas. She's based

2:11

in California and reports on

2:13

politics and voters with a specific

2:15

focus on the West. Combing

2:17

the Strip and really combing off the

2:20

Strip, looking for election stories. Right, right,

2:22

right. We were doing journalism by day

2:24

and hanging at the Cosmo by night,

2:26

if I remember correctly. He

2:29

eats campaign trail fun.

2:32

It doesn't get any better. So in

2:35

today's Republican primary, it's Nikki Haley and

2:37

a whole bunch of randoms. Where's

2:39

Donald Trump? Donald Trump does not

2:41

come until Thursday. On Thursday, the state

2:43

party will have a caucus, and

2:46

people who want to vote will show up

2:48

in gyms and in ballrooms across the state and

2:51

say they support Donald Trump. But he's

2:54

the only player there. And that

2:56

caucus is arguably the election that really matters

2:58

because all the delegates will be decided based

3:00

on what happens there. So what I'm hearing

3:02

from you is that Trump kind

3:05

of went through a whole separate process, and

3:08

is now virtually guaranteed to win all

3:10

of the state's delegates when it

3:12

relates to the Republican nomination. That's right. How did he

3:14

pull that off? You know, Trump has

3:16

got a lot of allies, and he certainly has

3:19

a lot of allies in the state party. The

3:21

Nevada party has been sort of

3:23

on his side and loyal to him for

3:25

a long time. He cultivated that. His

3:28

campaign created this condition long

3:30

ago, kind of before most people,

3:32

certainly most of the national press

3:34

was paying attention. He just made

3:36

it happen. We've talked to

3:38

some of our colleagues, including Maggie Haberman and Jonathan

3:40

Swan, about how this version of the Trump campaign

3:43

might be a little more organized than the previous

3:45

version of the Trump campaign. What I hear from

3:47

you is kind of another example of that. It

3:50

sounds like the Trump campaign virtually bullied

3:52

the state party into doing exactly what

3:54

it wants, and frankly, the other candidates

3:56

couldn't stop him. That's right. I mean,

3:58

Ron Sanders, when he was... still in the race

4:01

had said he was going to participate in the

4:03

caucus. Nikki Haley had always said

4:05

that she was going to participate in

4:07

the primary. But yes, Trump got

4:10

exactly what he wanted. And even the

4:12

governor who is a Republican and is

4:14

a Trump supporter has endorsed Trump, has voiced

4:16

his disappointment with the way that this is

4:18

how it's playing out. Wow. Okay.

4:21

Since Donald Trump is kind of correct and this

4:23

caucus does have a result where we know who

4:25

the winner is, let's focus on some different things

4:27

we can think about when it relates to Nevada.

4:30

Of course, this is a different type of state

4:32

than we saw earlier in Iowa, New Hampshire and

4:34

places that I had spent a lot of time

4:36

reporting. I haven't been out to Nevada. So you

4:38

tell me what's the difference between a Nevada voter

4:41

and an Iowa, New Hampshire voter? I think the

4:43

biggest difference is that both Iowa and New Hampshire

4:45

are overwhelmingly white

4:48

voters and Nevada is a

4:50

much more diverse state. More than 20% of

4:53

voters there are Hispanic. There's

4:55

a significant black voting population,

4:57

a significant Asian population. And

4:59

a very significant young population. And

5:02

even more than young, people move in and

5:04

out of Nevada very quickly. A

5:07

transient state. Very transient. And one

5:09

of the things you always hear when you

5:11

talk to political organizers and strategists is

5:13

that they don't know who their body

5:15

of voters is. Voters who

5:17

voted in 2020 are very different than voters who voted

5:19

in 2016 and will

5:21

be very different than voters who vote in 2024. You

5:24

know, another difference that jumps out to me

5:26

is that Nevada is a battleground state when

5:28

we think of the general election, whereas Iowa,

5:30

New Hampshire are less so. What

5:32

clues do we have right now about who the

5:35

most important voting block would be come November when

5:37

it comes to a presidential contest, which is likely

5:39

to be a rematch between Trump and Biden? Yeah,

5:41

I mean, Nevada for a while, Obama won Nevada.

5:43

And for a while, people thought of Nevada as

5:46

being a blue state. But anybody

5:48

who spends time there really does think

5:50

of it as a purple state and

5:52

a constant battleground state. And I think

5:54

that's even more true this year. Why?

5:57

I would say the two big populations

5:59

are Latino voters and

6:01

working-class voters. And there's a really big

6:03

overlap between those two. And that is a

6:06

place that has a lot of people who aren't college-

6:08

educated, who consider themselves working-class,

6:10

who vote. The unions play a huge

6:13

role in that. And

6:15

Hispanic voters, we already know that Democrats

6:17

have lost ground with Hispanic voters over

6:19

the last several election cycles. And

6:22

this is a big test, sort of how much ground

6:24

can they make up? Can they gain ground

6:26

or are they going to lose more ground?

6:28

That gives us two good populations to look

6:30

for. I mean, I remember the importance of

6:33

kind of appealing to working-class Latinos that both

6:35

Democrats and Republicans have put a focus on

6:37

in the state. But you've uniquely focused

6:39

on Latino voters in the last couple years.

6:41

What questions do you have at the start

6:44

of this race when it comes to that

6:46

population in the general election? What should we

6:48

be looking for when it comes to the

6:51

very broad, very unnuanced term of the Latino

6:53

vote? I mean, I think there's a

6:55

few different things. One that

6:57

constantly comes to mind is gender. You

6:59

know, how much of this is going to

7:01

be driven by men and how much do women also

7:04

get on board on the Trump on Trump

7:07

board or on Biden's board? I think

7:10

young people, sort of how much young

7:12

people are enthusiastic or not and do

7:14

they want to stay home or not?

7:16

I think sort of overall, I'm really

7:18

wondering like what's the level of enthusiasm

7:21

for politics now? And one of

7:23

the things we know is that Trump activated

7:25

Latino voters who had not voted previously

7:27

and who just decided for the first time,

7:29

here's a guy who looks interesting enough that

7:31

I want to vote for him. Yeah,

7:34

so let's talk about some of the specific

7:36

reporting you've been doing around these questions. I

7:38

know that you recently made a trip to

7:41

Nevada with our colleague, Elisa Gutierrez, to talk

7:43

with some Latino men specifically about how they're

7:45

feeling around the question around Trump and Biden.

7:48

Can you tell me about that reporting? Sure.

7:51

I first came across a barbershop in East

7:53

Las Vegas when I was out in the

7:55

area in 2022 trying to understand

7:58

this very Question of how. Endangered.

8:01

Were democrats in the state is and

8:03

I met these two guys who had

8:05

own a barbershop for more than twenty

8:07

years together. One of them considers himself

8:10

a pretty die hard democrat, although he

8:12

had a lot of frustrations with the

8:14

party. And the other guy had

8:16

voted for democrats in the past. But it's

8:18

become pretty devoted to Trump

8:20

and. These are two guys

8:22

who I just sat with free fascinating

8:24

and. Interacted. And

8:26

sort of debated and sparred with each

8:28

other about their politics all the time.

8:31

And I. When. Given the chance

8:33

one to go back to their place and see what

8:35

the atmosphere. Of the shop was like

8:37

worming around here. For. A

8:44

soft here's entirely. To men. And

8:47

mostly Hispanic man. I

8:51

wonder how busy they are today. He

8:53

said Thursday, Friday, Saturday or the biggest as head

8:56

of that as part of make Say bird. That

8:59

for the weekends and on the front window

9:01

of the barbershop it has a a painting

9:04

of the old Barbara Pool. Of at.

9:07

The Working class. On

9:09

there are oh yeah I'm the classic like

9:12

barbers some sort of like the name and

9:14

that seen since. The name as

9:16

as the Working. Class. Someone.

9:19

And most of these guys. You know a

9:21

lot of them weren't as cause a

9:23

lot of work in the casinos a

9:25

lot of them worked as servers and

9:27

they're all their to china's guess get

9:29

their hair have been auto relax and

9:31

part of relaxing it's like shooting the

9:33

shit. And and politics

9:35

comes up basically. All the time.

9:39

Know. A

9:41

party that is is the any. Danny is

9:43

one of the owners who is a chunk

9:45

dice and. Danny really have. A

9:48

good time as a citizen so

9:50

much as a roller as. Far.

9:55

As awesome as much as a question, everything

9:58

is awesome. Most of us went out. like

10:00

entertains himself by being provocative

10:02

by like kind of

10:04

teasing people and talking

10:06

about sort of what he thinks might offend

10:10

or shock or just things that he

10:12

thinks people will enjoy. That's

10:14

why I think a lot of the Black Lives Matter,

10:16

a lot of the political, sociological problems that are happening,

10:18

we didn't have that happen here. Everybody

10:21

here, the main color is green money. Every

10:25

barber shop has one barber who is

10:27

purely there to start stuff. That

10:30

is definitely Danny. So

10:32

Danny, you know, he does it all

10:34

the time and he loves, he kind of

10:37

has really taken great pride and joy

10:39

in being the Trump guy now.

10:42

And it turns out, as we

10:44

found, most of the guys in there

10:46

actually agree with him, or at least most of

10:48

the guys who are talking about politics agree with

10:50

him. The people who told us they plan

10:52

to vote this year, most of them

10:54

said they plan to vote for Trump. Interesting.

10:57

Why? The lies

10:59

are pretty complicated. It's tough to see what's going

11:01

to happen in

11:04

everything, right? And just the world in

11:06

general, there's a lot of things going

11:08

on that we have no control over. So

11:10

it's tough. I

11:13

mean, a lot of these guys have pretty

11:15

dark visions of what the world looks like

11:17

now, what the United States looks like now.

11:20

My youngest are 32-1 kids. She says she

11:22

ain't bringing those kids in this damn world.

11:25

Good for her. There's

11:27

nothing in it for them. There's no way for

11:29

them to get ahead. They're very worried about

11:31

their kids being able to achieve or

11:33

to get the same kind of

11:36

things that they had in terms of a

11:39

house or trappings of the middle class. So

11:41

does she have a better economic opportunity than

11:43

you do? Absolutely not. Absolutely

11:46

no one does right now. No

11:48

one does. We got actors. They

11:50

also feel very attacked. One of the things

11:52

that kept coming up again and again is

11:54

how woke our society is now. Let

12:00

me see everybody's, I was looking to be offended. Everybody

12:03

wants to... If they say something to their kids, their

12:05

kids will be offended. This sort

12:07

of feeling that like the ground is changing

12:10

underneath them and there's nothing they can do to stop

12:12

it. And the feeling of,

12:14

you know, that Trump is somehow

12:17

an avatar for what is possible in

12:19

this country. These are little

12:22

things that the regular person has not

12:24

the financial need to do. You guys

12:26

were both like, yes, I'm so glad

12:28

Trump is my name. Trump's

12:33

not a regular person. He

12:35

is a regular person, the

12:38

fact that he can as

12:40

an individual become successful is

12:43

like either, if you

12:45

know how to. His

12:47

success is their success. He shows

12:49

anybody can do it. There's

12:51

just a lot of excitement. There's

12:54

a lot of desire for like, what

12:56

do we have to lose? Let's blow up.

12:58

The system isn't working for us. Let's blow it up with

13:00

this guy anyway. Shake up America. That's why

13:03

you can get it. All these boys

13:05

are stopped out there, shake them up. You better

13:07

act right because Uncle Trump might become a man.

13:13

You gotta act right. And

13:15

these are guys, Danny included, who

13:17

really believe in the lift yourself

13:19

up by your bootstraps, who think

13:21

their parents did it. My grandfather

13:23

was an attorney during the Bocadero

13:26

program, the Ambassadoro program. He's

13:28

come pick fruit for three months

13:30

and made more during that time than an

13:33

attorney in Mexico. Who thinks they've

13:35

basically done it for their kids. Do you think

13:37

your kids are having a better life than you

13:39

had? Do you think your grandkids will have a better life?

13:41

Yeah, because of me, though, because of me and my wife.

13:44

And you want their kids to be able to do it

13:46

for their grandkids. Like, they really, truly believe it.

13:49

And that's what they are most concerned with. One

13:52

of the first times I ever talked to Danny, he

13:54

made it clear, like, we live in Vegas. We

13:57

know better than anybody. Money's what makes the world

13:59

go round. Yeah, I think that was one of

14:01

the big takeaways in the 2020 election

14:03

when you did see Trump improve his numbers

14:06

specifically with some portions of the Latino electorate.

14:08

Their concerns actually pretty much align things like

14:10

a loss of American dream or a focus

14:12

on the economy or even

14:14

some concerns about changing language and

14:17

culture. That sounds kind of Trumpy,

14:19

even if it's coming from an unexpected source. Yeah.

14:22

And these guys, just to be clear, most of

14:24

these guys who I'm talking about in this shop,

14:26

for example, are not red

14:28

hat mega wearers. They

14:30

are not people who are

14:33

super devoted to the Trump cause. They're not

14:35

going to rallies. They're not flying

14:37

flags off the back of their truck. But

14:39

they're people who just feel like the political

14:41

system doesn't speak to me, doesn't speak

14:44

for me or speak to me. And

14:46

this guy does. And they

14:48

don't see him as attacking them at all. They

14:50

don't feel attacked. They're like, ah, he's just saying

14:52

what he knows will work. I like to know

14:54

you all. I like to be out of the

14:57

minute. Trump keeps you entertained. For entertainment value. I

14:59

mean, I mean, it was fun to see what

15:01

this fool is going to say today. I

15:04

mean, now, do they have good policies? Of course. But he

15:06

had bad ones. He had good ones. A lot of women

15:08

don't like him. He's a dumb shit. He said, you know,

15:10

grab him to whatever by whatever. He didn't

15:12

mean women. He just meant I'm not going to grab him

15:14

by his foot. It is what it

15:16

is. It's not the man

15:19

thinking. He said the wrong thing at the

15:21

wrong time. I

15:24

mean, it's interesting because in that clip,

15:26

you hear someone who is

15:29

not only entertained by Trump,

15:31

but likes the way that Trump

15:33

offends people who he thinks are

15:36

too sensitive. And you

15:38

know, the quote, the quote, it's a man

15:40

thing. I mean, it can't get more literal

15:42

than that. How much are you when you

15:44

were there? How much of it was what

15:46

we would call maybe like traditional, like, you

15:49

know, maybe masculine identification with Trump versus more

15:51

policy stuff like the economy or other things

15:53

that you mentioned previously? I

15:55

think it's both. I think it's both. And

15:57

I've talked to a lot of men in the past who have some.

16:00

of it, Danny's a little bit more colorful

16:02

and straightforward in how he says it, but

16:04

there's not an insignificant number of

16:06

men, of Hispanic men who speak

16:09

that way, who talk that way about Trump. I

16:12

think it would be wrong to say that it is

16:14

only about masculinity. I think it is

16:16

also about something slightly deeper,

16:18

which is this feeling of

16:20

like, I want to provide for

16:23

my family, he's going to help me provide

16:25

to my family. You know what I mean?

16:27

I would leave those two things. I think

16:29

the economy or the perception of the economy

16:31

and the masculinity thing goes hand

16:33

in hand. Right. It strikes me that Iowa,

16:35

New Hampshire and South Carolina, the early states

16:37

that get the most kind of

16:40

attention play into the traditional kind

16:42

of American dichotomy of really black

16:44

and white electorate. That, you know,

16:46

when we talk about race or when we talk about

16:48

people of color, or we talk about new demographics

16:51

that really it's often the kind of

16:53

Democratic Party leading with black people, which

16:55

had traditionally banned the largest section of

16:57

its space when it comes to racial

16:59

minorities. You know, some of that is

17:01

changing and has been a thing that

17:03

we have covered for a

17:05

while. Did anyone there speak to

17:07

the kind of changing face of

17:09

America and whether they feel they're

17:11

included in that? Yeah, it's

17:13

really interesting. I think the way that a

17:16

lot of these guys think about this, even

17:18

if they don't say exactly this way is

17:20

we're here, get used to it. Like

17:23

they really conceive of themselves

17:25

as being Mexican or

17:28

Hispanic or Latino, whatever the label

17:30

they use. That's like an important

17:32

part of their identity. And

17:35

they totally think of themselves as American. And

17:38

George talked about this and how he thinks the party

17:40

should be thinking about Latinos who are the

17:42

largest non-white voting group in America. I

17:45

think the Democrats are laying this down and they let

17:47

us down. Why do you say, Oh,

17:49

well, it's obvious what's been going on over the years.

17:51

They're not doing nothing for us. Everything

17:54

they do is for the blacks and the white people. And

17:56

that's it. If you let the news tell it, if you

17:58

let the papers tell it, it's a black. white world

18:00

and we're not okay with that. And the reason we're

18:02

not okay with that because we're the

18:04

biggest group in America. We're the biggest voting

18:07

group. If we stick together, we're the

18:09

biggest voting group. We don't need a cater to

18:11

nobody. We can determine who

18:13

becomes president or not, but we're not

18:15

united. You know, the numbers don't

18:18

lie. I mean, the last time you're

18:20

on this show, we were talking about

18:22

how the rise in terms of numbers

18:24

of Latinos or reshaping the political landscape

18:27

and the interests of both parties. There

18:29

does seem to be a kind of

18:31

growing understanding that that political power can

18:33

be exerted both to influence

18:36

Democrats and Republicans. Absolutely.

18:38

I think this person absolutely understands

18:40

that in a way that I

18:42

don't know that every voter does,

18:44

but certainly some people do. And that's

18:46

where you get to this, what do

18:49

we have to lose attitude? They haven't

18:51

done anything for us. How can we

18:53

exert this power that we have? Let's

18:56

try anything. You know, what can we possibly

18:58

do? What George

19:00

shows, I think, is like, yes,

19:03

there is definitely an element of

19:07

anti-wokeism and, you know, sort

19:10

of pro machismo or hyper

19:12

masculinity. There is definitely that.

19:15

And there is definitely the

19:17

economic stuff as well.

19:19

But what George says so clearly

19:21

is like, who is

19:23

looking out for us? Like that big

19:25

question, who's looking out for us? And

19:28

he doesn't see it in any,

19:30

in either party. But he

19:32

goes to what do we have to lose? Let

19:34

me just try these Republicans and see what they can

19:37

do for me. So we know how Trump may

19:39

try to appeal specifically to groups like Latino men.

19:41

But when we look ahead to the other side

19:43

on what Democrats might do, what is

19:45

the strategy to kind of undo the feelings

19:47

of abandonment that you heard in the barbershop?

19:50

I mean, the Democrats have taken what

19:52

seems to be a pretty straightforward

19:54

approach of trying to

19:56

remind people how terrible Trump is and

19:59

trying to... remind people what Biden has

20:01

done. But more of an emphasis

20:03

on how terrible Trump is. And

20:06

I think what you see in these men is

20:08

like, that may not be enough, that may not

20:10

be effective. I think Democrats are

20:12

going to spend a lot of money on this

20:15

group. I think one of the big questions is,

20:17

is spending money to message and do

20:19

outreach in an election enough? Or

20:22

is it something deeper than that? Is

20:24

it some real change in policy, a

20:26

change in how the government approaches dealing

20:29

with what these kinds of voters want? So

20:32

Nevada feels like a window into what we

20:34

should expect as this race between Biden and

20:36

Trump begins. But is there anything that we

20:38

should be thinking about in the short term,

20:41

in regards to the state or this electorate,

20:43

that we might get more clues at either

20:45

Tuesday or Thursday? I mean,

20:47

I think the question of who votes on

20:49

Tuesday and Thursday is an interesting one. And

20:51

what are the demographics of those voters?

20:53

I mean, the thing that we heard

20:55

a lot in the barbershop from these

20:58

Republican voters is just this nihilism, this

21:00

feeling of like nothing is going to

21:02

get better. And when I was asking these

21:04

guys, I was there more recently, I was asking

21:06

these guys, hey, are you voting in the

21:08

caucus or primary? Most of them looked at

21:10

me blankly. They had no idea it was

21:12

even happening. So they're not

21:14

feeling particularly reached out to or

21:16

tied into the Republican Party or

21:18

even to Donald Trump. But

21:21

they all feel pretty obligated or pretty committed,

21:23

at least for now, voting in

21:25

November. So seeing how that pessimism

21:28

works out is something I'm very

21:30

curious about. Well, you'll be

21:32

tracking it and we'll be tracking you. So that's

21:35

helpful. Denny, have a great rest of

21:37

your day. Thank you. You too. So

21:44

as a refresher, here's how it's going to work.

21:47

If you're a Republican voter in Nevada and

21:50

you've managed to more or less figure out what's going

21:52

on this year, you'll vote

21:54

in the Tuesday primary. If you support

21:56

Nikki Haley or any of the alternative

21:58

candidates on the ballot. But

22:01

if you support Trump, you'll

22:03

caucus for him on Thursday, where

22:06

he's the only real candidate. And

22:09

that's the only vote that will matter when

22:11

it comes to choosing this year's Republican nominee.

22:14

That's our special episode of The Run-Up for

22:17

the Nevada Primary. We'll be

22:19

back on Thursday. The

22:30

Run-Up is reported by me, Estet

22:32

Herndon, and produced by Elisa Gutierrez,

22:34

Caitlin O'Keefe, and Anna Foley. It's

22:37

edited by Rachel Dry, Lisa Tobin,

22:39

and Franny Cartoff. It was

22:42

mixed by Sophia Landman and Alyssa Moxley.

22:45

With original music by Dan

22:47

Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker,

22:49

Zion Wong, Sophia Landman, and

22:52

Alyssa Beattube. Special

22:54

thanks to Paula Schumann, Sam

22:56

Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Haufinger,

22:59

Maddie Maciello, Mahima Chablani,

23:01

Tara Gosbin, and Jeffrey Miranda.

23:04

Do you have a question about the 2024 election? Email

23:08

us at therunupatnytimes.com. Or

23:10

better yet, record your question using the voice

23:12

memo app on your phone. And

23:14

then send us the file. The

23:17

email again is therunupatnytimes.com. And

23:20

finally, if you like the show

23:23

and want to get updates on latest episodes,

23:25

follow our feed wherever you get your podcasts.

23:28

Thanks for listening, y'all.