30:00

his master plan, let

30:02

the far-right win, but

30:04

then let them show that they're so hopeless

30:06

at governing, that the voters will

30:09

reject them a year from now and set

30:11

everything up for his successor, because he can't

30:13

stand again, to beat the far-right

30:15

in the presidential election in 2027. That

30:18

is one hypothesis. That is one scenario

30:20

that we could see. So

30:23

then we get into even more complicated

30:25

territory, which is that no one has

30:28

a majority in the parliament. And

30:30

what happens then? What

30:33

if we end up with the right

30:35

winning the most votes, but not enough to

30:37

have an outright majority? Will

30:39

there be any movement from the center or

30:41

from the left to help them

30:43

form a government? So that's

30:45

where things get complicated. The only

30:48

people who would team up with

30:51

the National Rally would be

30:53

the Republicans, the center-right party.

30:55

Now, the Republicans themselves have

30:57

divided a few of them, including

30:59

their leader, Eric Cioty, have

31:02

already formally backed the

31:04

National Rally. So they're already in. The

31:07

big uncertainty is what the remaining

31:09

Republicans would do. It

31:11

could be that if the National Rally

31:14

is quite close to getting the magic

31:16

289 seats it needs, those

31:20

other Republicans would come over

31:23

and in return, perhaps, for posts in

31:26

the government would back the

31:29

National Rally, which would mean we would still have

31:31

Jourdan Bardella as prime minister. Alternatively,

31:37

we could be in a situation where

31:39

the National Rally falls quite a long

31:41

way short of this 289. There

31:45

aren't enough Republicans who are prepared to team up

31:47

with them. And we

31:49

would then be in a situation where probably

31:51

no one would have an absolute majority, which

31:54

would then, I suppose,

31:56

lead to Macron trying

31:59

to... to put together a

32:02

coalition of his own party

32:06

and moderate members

32:08

of the left, perhaps excluding

32:11

Melanchol's party. A

32:16

third possibility, if that fails then,

32:18

would be perhaps a technocratic

32:21

government with sort of non-political figures.

32:23

Now, that for France would be

32:25

a novelty, but we've seen that

32:27

in the past in Italy, that

32:29

could well happen. And

32:36

Peter, if you were a betting man, which of

32:38

those scenarios do you think is the most likely

32:40

to win? It is just

32:43

so finely balanced. Where's your money?

32:45

I'm a little reluctant to put

32:47

my money anywhere. It all depends

32:50

on what happens in the next

32:52

few days. It all depends on

32:55

how many candidates withdraw

32:57

in these so-called triangular seats.

33:00

And it also depends crucially

33:02

on the extent to which

33:04

voters are prepared to follow

33:06

the advice which is

33:08

given to them by the party

33:11

that they voted for on the first

33:13

round. And the signs are that voters

33:16

these days aren't prepared to listen. The

33:18

idea that people will

33:20

do what their political masters tell

33:23

them is no longer the case,

33:25

particularly in France, that in a

33:27

sense explains why they voted so

33:30

convincingly against

33:32

Macron. Peter, you've

33:34

lived in France for a

33:36

few years now. Have you sensed the

33:39

country changing? Have you sensed the sort

33:41

of underlying change? It feels like yesterday

33:43

when you had this sudden rush, this

33:45

great excitement for this new

33:47

centrist party coming along. What's

33:50

changed in France? I

33:53

think what is striking is the

33:56

degree of dissatisfaction that there is

33:58

in France. We'll

38:00

be back tomorrow. Do

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38:28

don't matter? Well then you need to be listening

38:30

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38:32

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38:41

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