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1:13

Hello, I'm Julian Warricker. Thank you

1:15

for downloading the BBC's World Tonight podcast

1:18

for Monday, the 10th of June. It's

1:21

the week of the election campaign when

1:23

the major party manifestos are published. The

1:25

Prime Minister has defended his record in

1:27

a BBC interview on the eve of

1:30

his party's detailed plans being scrutinised. And

1:32

we hear as well from the Liberal Democrats

1:34

as their manifesto hits the shelves. A

1:37

snap election in France. How much of

1:39

a gamble is President Macron taking after

1:42

his party performed so badly in the

1:44

European elections over the weekend? And

1:47

another diplomatic effort in the Middle East

1:49

by the US Secretary of State, Anthony

1:51

Blinken. It's his eighth visit to the

1:53

region since the Gaza War began. Can

1:56

he make a difference this time around?

2:00

of the election campaign, the week

2:02

when the sound bites and press

2:05

releases of the first fortnight are

2:07

crystallized by publication of the party

2:09

manifestos, crystallized but not necessarily clarified.

2:12

Today it was the Liberal Democrats' turn

2:14

to put their detailed plans out there

2:17

for public scrutiny and will focus on

2:19

one particular aspect of their proposals, the

2:21

crucial issue of housing, later in the

2:23

programme. Tomorrow the Conservatives launch

2:25

their manifesto, a key moment for

2:28

a governing party which is trailing

2:30

significantly in the opinion polls and which is

2:32

coming off the back of a difficult few

2:34

days. Well, the BBC is

2:36

interviewing all the major party leaders in the

2:39

run-up to the election in the Panorama interviews

2:41

with Nick Robinson and the

2:43

first of those was broadcast earlier this evening with

2:45

Rishi Sunak. In an

2:47

early exchange the Prime Minister was questioned

2:49

about Conservative policies announced in the campaign

2:52

so far and how they'll be paid

2:54

for. We've had endless promises.

2:56

I've got all your Tory press releases

2:59

here. A promise of national

3:01

service, a couple of billion there. A

3:03

promise for a tax cut for pensioners.

3:05

A promise of a tax cut for

3:08

parents. More apprenticeship, more police officers. Endless

3:11

promises of more and

3:13

more money from the Conservatives. Have you found

3:15

the magic money tree? No,

3:17

every single one of those policies that

3:20

you've just been through is fully funded

3:22

and costed, as is explained in every single one of

3:24

those press releases as indeed when

3:26

we've set out our manifesto tomorrow people will be able to

3:28

see all the details behind it even further. And

3:30

tomorrow you'll promise more tax cuts. We

3:33

will have a manifesto tomorrow that builds

3:35

on all the things that you've just

3:37

gone through that we've already announced in

3:39

this campaign that yes, does continue to

3:41

cut people's taxes because I believe in

3:43

a country where people's hard work is

3:45

rewarded. Well, Nick ended the interview by asking

3:48

Mr Sunak whether the Conservatives deserved another

3:50

five years in power. After

3:52

14 years, five Prime Ministers, Boris

3:54

Johnson lying about parties, Liz

3:57

Truss almost crashing the economy and you bunking

3:59

off DJ. After all

4:01

the broken promises, you really think you

4:03

deserve another chance? I've been

4:05

very clear in the past, no government gets everything

4:08

right, but I am proud of what has been

4:10

achieved over 14 years. This

4:12

election is also about the future. We

4:14

have a clear plan. I'm prepared to

4:16

take bold action to cut people's taxes,

4:18

protect their pensions and bring migration down.

4:21

And in contrast, Labour are just going to put everyone's taxes

4:23

up. That's a choice. Well, Newsnight's

4:25

political editor Nick Watt is with me,

4:27

so that was this evening. Nick, how

4:30

does it throw forward, do you think,

4:32

to tomorrow? Well, it throws forward in

4:34

those very clear remarks from the Prime

4:36

Minister to Nick Robinson that that manifesto

4:39

will have further tax cuts. So it

4:42

looks highly likely that we will get

4:44

the third cut in employee national insurance

4:46

contributions. There have been two so far

4:49

in the last six months or so.

4:51

And if they do that, that

4:53

will allow them to say that they have halved that

4:56

rate. I also think

4:58

it's going to be no great surprise

5:00

if we look at that manifesto tomorrow and

5:03

find that there is some help for some first

5:05

time buyers. So we do know

5:07

that the government wants to ensure that if

5:09

you're a first time buyer, you do not

5:11

pay stamp duty on a property up to

5:13

£425,000. That

5:17

is known as the nil rate. That is the

5:19

current position, but that's due to be lifted next

5:21

April. And

5:23

it's pretty clear that that nil rate

5:26

will continue if that will be a

5:28

pledge from the Conservatives. And

5:30

it may well be that they want

5:32

to go further. I mean, for example,

5:34

the Labour Party last week talked about

5:36

how they would provide a guarantee for

5:39

a greater deposit for first time buyers

5:41

struggling to get a deposit. Rishi Sunak

5:43

in that Nick Robinson interview said, the

5:45

big challenge for young people is getting

5:47

a deposit. So it wouldn't surprise me

5:50

if we see something pretty serious in

5:52

that sort of area. that

12:00

this was an area that they said they'd do

12:02

something about. I mean, this is the problem with

12:04

a lot of the policies that they

12:06

can talk about, but ultimately it is

12:09

about the record and in

12:11

the interview again tonight, Rishi

12:14

Sunak did acknowledge that

12:16

it has become harder for first-time buyers to

12:18

get on the property line. But if there

12:20

was an incentive to go back to where we

12:22

were before on that, as has

12:25

been suggested, would that be a good

12:27

thing? Well, I think

12:29

the problem is that there are many

12:31

factors in why people can't

12:33

get on the housing ladder. There's an

12:35

argument over whether it's deposits or not,

12:38

there's an argument over whether it's salary

12:40

levels, but even if you put up

12:42

people's wages, the

12:45

gap to actually then be able to afford something

12:47

because there aren't enough homes being built is still

12:49

a challenge out there. And Daphne, you're hearing that message

12:51

from people you speak to on this one, are you? Yes,

12:54

I am hearing that. I think that's

12:56

true, as Jo has said. But I

12:58

also think it's no good just building

13:00

houses. You need a thriving and expanding

13:03

economy. You need people in work. That

13:05

is vital. The economy has to grow

13:07

and that will help house building and

13:09

everything else. Thank you both so

13:11

much, Jo Tanner, Daphne Bagshaw. Throughout the campaign,

13:14

you've been getting in touch to tell us

13:16

the issues that matter to you. So thank

13:18

you for doing that. This week, we're particularly

13:20

interested in hearing from you if you're still

13:22

making up your mind. If

13:24

that is you do, please get in touch. If you text

13:26

it's 84844, the charge 10

13:30

to 15 pence to do that. We're on WhatsApp

13:32

03700100444 or there's good old email world.tonight at

13:38

bbc.co.uk. And we return

13:40

to the election and how the parties are

13:42

dealing with that key issue of housing a

13:44

little later in the programme. Well

13:47

now to a political gamble being taken on the other

13:50

side of the channel. The

13:57

sound of protesters in the Place de

13:59

la République. in Paris this

14:01

evening demonstrating against the far-right national

14:03

rally. Marine Le Pen's party outperformed

14:06

all its rivals in the European

14:08

elections over the weekend and

14:11

in response, President Macron, whose

14:13

centrist party suffered big losses,

14:15

announced last night that he was

14:17

dissolving France's national parliament. The snap

14:19

election, taking place over two rounds

14:21

three weeks from now, could result

14:24

in him having to work alongside

14:26

a prime minister from Le Pen's

14:28

party. Claire Pakaland is a reporter

14:30

for France 24 in Paris. How

14:32

much of a surprise was that snap

14:34

election announcement, Claire? It

14:37

was a huge surprise. I was at

14:39

the headquarters of Emmanuel Macron's candidate, Valerie

14:41

Aye. So she was heading the list

14:43

in the European election. She's a member

14:45

of his party. She was heading the

14:47

Macron list, if you like, and there

14:50

were gasps in the room.

14:52

People could not believe it. The outcome

14:54

of the result, that wasn't a big

14:56

surprise. We'd seen in the polls that

14:58

Jordan Badseler, so he was running this

15:01

for from Marine Le Pen's party, he

15:03

was really on top. The actual outcome of

15:06

the result wasn't a surprise.

15:08

But Emmanuel Macron going on TV live

15:10

in the evening shortly afterwards, that was

15:12

a huge surprise. And many politicians now,

15:15

of course, facing this prospect of having

15:17

to campaign in the next three weeks

15:19

to keep their seats. And many parties

15:21

having to find candidates pretty hastily as well, certainly.

15:24

I mean, this this week really will be

15:27

sort of horse trading, if you like, because

15:29

they the parties have until Sunday to name

15:31

their candidates. So there are meetings going on

15:33

today, tomorrow, for the rest of the week.

15:36

And and the big question really is, will

15:38

there be this was called a Republican front?

15:40

This is what we've seen in elections in

15:43

the past in France, whereby opposition parties club

15:45

together in order to block the far right

15:47

from coming to power. No opposition parties that

15:49

could be from the left or the right

15:52

or the center parties who don't

15:54

actually agree with each other on really anything, but they

15:56

all agree that they don't want the far right in

15:58

power. We saw that back into. 2002

16:01

when Jean-Marie Le Pen, so Marine Le Pen's

16:03

father, was up against Jacques Chirac in

16:05

the second round of the presidential election. We've seen

16:07

it in the past, but in the last few

16:10

years, certainly in the elections we had two years

16:12

ago, clearly that Republican

16:14

front is much weaker than it was.

16:16

It's quite possible that it's around. I was going to say, they

16:18

might not have the numbers for that, mind they? No, certainly not.

16:20

They might not have the numbers. You mentioned

16:22

Mr. Bardella. He

16:24

could be the next Prime Minister, couldn't he?

16:27

He could. At the moment, to

16:29

give you some context, the Rasson-Lemond-Nassonal,

16:31

that's called RN, it's now what

16:34

was the national front. It's changed

16:36

its name, it's rebranded to the

16:38

Rasson-Lemond-Nassonal. The RN has 88 seats

16:41

in parliament. If it wants to get an

16:43

absolute majority, it needs 289. There's

16:46

still a way to go. There's still a long way to

16:49

go, but when you look then at

16:52

previous elections, so these 88 seats, the

16:54

RN won them two years ago. Before

16:56

that, the party only had eight seats

16:58

in parliament. It jumped from eight to

17:01

88. It could jump

17:03

up to 289. Everything's possible, but then

17:05

again, the next few weeks, things

17:07

are going to move really fast here in

17:10

France. I think it's important not

17:12

to underestimate the left, the

17:14

left wing in France at the moment. It's

17:16

very fractured. There are politicians and parties all

17:19

vying for influence, but they're talking and they're

17:21

trying to unite to block the

17:24

far right, getting into power and that's their

17:26

goal. So if the left can come together,

17:28

there is a possibility that Jordan Badala won't

17:30

be the next prime minister. Well, we'll see.

17:33

We will. Claire Pakaland, thank you very much. And

17:35

at the end of the programme, we'll reflect on

17:38

those European election results more broadly and on the

17:40

growing support for parties from the far right. Now,

17:43

I mentioned at the start of this election

17:46

campaign, we asked you to get in touch

17:48

to tell us about the issues you want

17:50

the BBC to cover and time and again

17:52

housing came up. And in that panorama interview,

17:55

Rishi Sunak admitted it's got harder for people

17:57

to own their own home under a Conservative

17:59

government. and in response to that

18:02

Labour's deputy leader, Angela Rayner, described

18:04

that as a damning indictment of

18:06

14 years of housing failure. Well,

18:08

in the last few minutes, as

18:10

Nick Watt was suggesting earlier, the

18:12

Conservatives have announced that their manifesto

18:14

will include a new Help to

18:16

Buy scheme that will offer first-time

18:18

buyers a 20% government loan that

18:21

will allow them to buy a home with a 5% deposit.

18:25

Peter Felix and his partner Rebecca are both

18:28

in their 40s and from the West Midlands.

18:30

They would love to own their own home,

18:32

but can't get on to the housing ladder.

18:34

They've been speaking to Naftaj Johar. We're

18:36

not struggling, but at the same time, the rent will

18:38

keep going up and we know that every time the

18:40

rent goes up, it means there's less and less in

18:42

our pocket to save. How long do you think it

18:44

will be before you're actually able to afford a deposit

18:47

that you can put towards a house? Well, at this

18:49

rate, to get £12,000, it'll take us five years. If

18:53

we put £100 a month away each, right over five

18:55

years, that's £12,000. How

18:57

close are you to just giving up? Giving up

18:59

the idea that you'll ever be homeowners? I don't

19:01

want to give up. I really don't, because I

19:03

really, really would love to have some cover of

19:05

my own. I'm at

19:07

the opposite end of it, I think. I'm pretty much

19:09

ready to give up, because it just

19:12

feels like we're fighting a losing battle.

19:14

So, yeah, I'm kind of losing hope.

19:17

I never own my own home. While

19:19

housing was one of the areas included

19:21

in the Liberal Democrat manifesto launched today,

19:24

Vicki Spratt, housing correspondent for the i-newspaper,

19:26

has been telling me what they're offering.

19:29

I think one of the most interesting things

19:31

is that they've done something that no other

19:33

major party has done for a

19:35

long time, which is commit to how many

19:37

social homes they would build every year. So

19:40

the Libdams say they want to build 380,000

19:42

homes a year, which

19:45

is higher than the now-scrapped Tory target of

19:47

300,000 was. And

19:49

they say that 150,000 of those would be social homes. Now,

19:55

I think there's so much

19:58

agreement across the housing sector. that

20:00

social housing is the key to easing

20:02

the housing crisis. So I think lots

20:04

of people will be very, very happy

20:07

to see that. And I think

20:09

there's one other thing that's really stood out

20:11

to me, which has separated them from what

20:14

I believe Labour are considering, and

20:17

what the Conservatives certainly were

20:19

doing when we had a

20:22

parliament, which is they

20:24

want to bring in local powers to

20:26

end right to buy in any

20:28

given area. Now right to buy, of course, is

20:30

the policy that was brought in under

20:33

Thatcher's government, which allows for

20:35

social housing and council housing to

20:37

be bought by its tenants at

20:40

a discount on market rate. In

20:42

theory, fine, in practice, disaster, because

20:44

what it has done is lead

20:46

to one of the biggest sell-offs

20:49

of social housing ever. We

20:51

have lost more social homes than

20:53

have been replaced, and that has

20:55

created the social housing shortage we

20:57

have today, with more than a

20:59

million households on waiting lists in

21:01

England alone. Obviously, we're at

21:03

a stage where only one party

21:06

manifesto has been published, others to come. How

21:09

much of an overlap do you

21:11

anticipate when you see the other

21:13

proposals being put forward by the

21:15

other main parties? This

21:18

is a really interesting question.

21:20

The honest answer is, I

21:22

think we could yet be

21:24

surprised. In the last couple

21:26

of hours, Bloomberg have actually

21:28

run a story with

21:31

a scoop on what Labour are rumoured to

21:33

be including in their manifesto. Now, if this

21:35

is true, I think this will be something

21:37

that really sets them apart from the

21:40

Lib Dems and the Conservatives. Now, the

21:42

rumour is that Angela Rayner is planning,

21:44

and I quote, a powerful Blair-style unit

21:46

to tackle homelessness. Now, when Tony Blair

21:48

was Prime Minister, there was a rough

21:50

sleeping unit, which was actually based in

21:52

number 10. And during that

21:54

period, we did get rough sleeping down.

21:56

It is now going back up. prized

22:00

by Labour. What of the Greens reform

22:03

UK? Any clues from them at this stage?

22:05

Let's do reform first. One of their policies

22:07

is to make sure that British people live

22:09

in social housing but if you look at

22:12

the stats, mostly tenants are British citizens. They

22:14

also want to abandon the renters reform bill.

22:16

In terms of the Greens, something that I

22:19

thought was very interesting in their manifesto was

22:22

rent control. And in London,

22:24

they wanted to bring in an immediate rent freeze.

22:26

Now, neither of the

22:28

main political parties nor the Lib

22:30

Dems have mentioned it. But I

22:32

really wouldn't be surprised if there

22:34

wasn't some form of rent regulation

22:36

in years to come. Perhaps not

22:38

what the Greens are proposing, but

22:40

private rents are still rising above

22:42

the consumer rate of inflation and

22:45

people really simply can't afford to pay them.

22:48

Vicki Spratt of the i newspaper. Well, as

22:50

I mentioned at the start of the programme,

22:52

it was the Liberal Democrats' turn to publish

22:54

their manifesto today. And with me

22:56

is the party's Chief Whip and spokesperson for

22:58

work and pensions, Wendy Chamberlain. Good evening to

23:01

you. Good evening. Let's look

23:03

at some of those housing figures in a

23:05

bit more detail. As Vicki Spratt was saying,

23:07

you've set a target of building 380,000 homes

23:09

a year across the UK. Nothing like that number

23:15

has been achieved since the 1960s.

23:17

So how in reality are you

23:19

going to achieve that? Well,

23:22

I think it's quite clear that across

23:24

the political spectrum that we need to

23:26

be dealing with the housing crisis. And

23:29

that does mean building more homes. I'm

23:31

obviously speaking to you from Scotland, where

23:33

the Scottish government has been forced into

23:35

declaring a housing crisis, because some of

23:37

the same challenges that Vicki was referring

23:39

to are the

23:41

same here in Scotland as well. And I

23:44

think the key thing about our manifesto pledges

23:46

today is around social housing. Listening to the

23:48

two members of the public who are looking

23:50

to buy, we should be trying to ensure

23:53

that they can save up to buy because

23:55

they should be able to access affordable social

23:57

housing while they do so. if

24:00

we can reach those targets and deliver

24:02

those targets through our manifesto

24:04

proposals, I think that will leave the

24:06

whole sector in a better position. But

24:09

why has your party changed its stance

24:11

on targets? Only last year at your

24:13

party conference, your housing spokesperson Helen Morgan

24:15

said, and I quote, a

24:17

national target has never delivered the housing

24:19

we need. Well,

24:22

what I would say is what

24:24

you've captured there is the fact

24:26

that Liberal Democrats say policy is

24:28

created and agreed by our members

24:30

at conference. Helen said that

24:33

and the policy was changed so that we

24:35

had the target and we are committed to

24:37

listening to our members and we've worked closely

24:40

to think about how we will deliver on

24:42

that pledge. But at that conference, the

24:45

leadership attempted to scrap national housing

24:47

targets, but members voted in favour

24:50

of keeping them. That's what you ended up being

24:52

forced into doing. Well, you

24:55

may call it force, but I think

24:57

it's one of the great strengths of

24:59

our party that our members are so

25:01

involved and engaged in delivering our policy

25:03

because those are the very members who

25:05

knock on doors, speak to people and

25:07

hear the challenges. And for myself up

25:09

until recently, as a constituency MP, if

25:11

I think about my case workload, it

25:13

usually is because of housing and lack

25:15

of access to social housing that is

25:17

the biggest challenge for me to deal

25:19

with as an MP. Can

25:21

we look at the practicalities of

25:23

hitting that target? Because clearly you

25:25

need local authorities on board for

25:28

this to work. And in a

25:30

Times investigation last month, it

25:32

was found that of the 10 council areas

25:34

in the country most likely to block a

25:37

major planning development, four

25:39

of them were controlled by your

25:42

party, including the council area most

25:44

likely to block, namely

25:46

Mole Valley. So these two

25:48

individual things, the national

25:51

plan and the local evidence, do

25:53

not match, do they? Well,

25:56

I think what is always the case, and

25:58

I'm sure anybody across the political spectrum would

26:00

say. this is it's about having the right

26:02

housing in the right place. And we've been

26:04

very clear, for example, that Greenbelt is not

26:07

something that we would be looking to permit

26:09

housing developments on because there's plenty of brownfield

26:12

sites that we can be looking at. But

26:14

again, if I look at my own experience

26:16

in Northeast Tife and St Andrews, it is

26:18

about finding that right balance because in somewhere

26:20

like St Andrews, you've obviously got private rentals

26:23

for people in tourists and students coming to

26:25

visit. You've got people looking to buy in

26:27

the community as well. And all that builds

26:29

into the local community too. So I do

26:31

think at a local level, you have to

26:33

take all of those things into account. But

26:35

it's quite clear that we need to deliver

26:37

so that we can solve this housing crisis

26:39

that is true across the UK. But would

26:41

liberal Democrats, if they were

26:43

in power or had some influence over power,

26:46

push through a housing development in an area

26:48

where it's desperately needed in the teeth of

26:50

local opposition, presumably from your own party? Well,

26:53

that's where we need to listen to

26:55

local communities and those local representatives and

26:57

ensure that we are finding the right

26:59

places. Look, the ambition of this policy

27:01

is very clear. And I'm sure colleagues

27:03

in whatever level, whether that be local

27:06

or national government, would be looking to

27:08

see how we can best deliver it.

27:10

Wendy Chamberlain, thank you very much indeed for coming on. The

27:14

US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, is on his

27:16

eighth visit to the Middle East since the

27:18

start of the war in Gaza. The

27:21

itinerary is a familiar one. He's held talks

27:23

with President Al Sisi in Egypt and has

27:25

since gone on to a meeting with the

27:28

Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. But the backdrop

27:30

has some different elements since he was last

27:32

in the region. First, there's

27:34

the three-phase peace plan set out 10

27:37

days ago by President Biden described by

27:39

him as Israel's proposal, which Mr Blinken

27:41

wants to promote. Then there's

27:43

the resignation from the Israeli War

27:45

Cabinet of the former General Benny

27:48

Gantz, who's criticised Mr Netanyahu over

27:50

a lack of any meaningful plan

27:52

for a post-Hamas Gaza. Speaking to

27:54

the cameras after meeting President Al

27:56

Sisi, Mr Blinken said he hoped

27:58

Hamas gave a positive... of response

28:00

to the proposal. The

28:02

best way to ensure that there's

28:04

not another civilian casualty is for the

28:06

ceasefire deal to go forward, for Hamas

28:08

to accept it. It's as

28:11

basic and as simple as that. That's

28:13

what's on the table now. That's what we need to

28:15

see an answer to. That's what would end the

28:17

conflict in Gaza. Let's see if we get an answer from

28:19

Hamas. Well Hamas has said

28:21

it's ready to cooperate with mediators over

28:24

implementation of principles of the ceasefire proposal,

28:26

and there's been that UN Security Council

28:28

vote in the last little while

28:30

in favor of an American resolution calling

28:32

for that immediate ceasefire by Israel

28:35

and Hamas in Gaza. Fourteen countries

28:37

voted in favor and Russia abstained.

28:39

Well, Frank Lowenstein is a former

28:41

United States Special Envoy for Middle

28:43

East Peace. And joins me, Frank,

28:45

good evening. Thanks

28:47

for having me. The resignation of Benny

28:49

Gantz. What impact does that have specifically

28:51

on the American approach to this? So

28:55

the resignation of Gantz probably makes it more

28:57

difficult for our secretary Blinken to achieve the

28:59

ceasefire that he's working so hard to advance.

29:02

And the reason for that is because Gantz

29:04

has been a voice of moderation inside of

29:06

Netanyahu's war cabinet. He's provided really a counterbalance

29:09

to some of the far-right ministers

29:11

who really hold a lot of

29:14

political power over Netanyahu. So without

29:16

him, the far-right ministers will get it.

29:19

I'm just treading carefully, Frank, because your line

29:22

is just breaking up momentarily. Let's stay with

29:24

you. Ah, I was about to say

29:26

let's stay with you. Maybe we won't stay

29:28

with you while we're addressing that issue. We'll go

29:30

on to other matters and hopefully come back to

29:32

you in the next few moments. Back

29:35

to Europe. As the dust settles

29:37

on this weekend's elections to the

29:39

European Parliament, the verdict seems to

29:41

be along these lines. The center

29:43

ground mostly held, but the

29:45

far right made striking if uneven

29:48

gains across the continent. Earlier,

29:50

I spoke to two close observers

29:52

of European politics. Natalie Tocci is

29:54

director of the Institute of International

29:56

Affairs in Rome and former special

29:58

adviser to two EU High

30:01

Representatives. And Dr Mariana Graffini is

30:03

an assistant professor in the Department

30:05

of Politics and International Relations at

30:07

North Eastern University London, and her

30:09

research includes the far right in

30:12

Europe. So first, Mariana's assessment of

30:14

the results. I do

30:16

think that we are witnessing, I wouldn't

30:18

say a surge, but

30:20

a consolidation of the far right

30:23

at EU level. Indeed, I think

30:25

that we could see this coming.

30:27

At the same

30:29

time, I wouldn't qualify

30:32

this consolidation as

30:34

cataclysmic or catastrophic, because if

30:36

we look at the projections

30:38

about the number of seats

30:40

that the far right will

30:42

have in the next European

30:45

Parliament, of course,

30:48

they did enjoy a resounding

30:50

victory. But there is not

30:52

such a staggering difference between

30:54

the number of seats they

30:56

will have and the

30:58

number of seats that they did

31:01

have in the previous Parliament. What

31:04

are young people doing? And those who

31:06

are moving further right amongst young people,

31:08

why are they tending to do that?

31:11

Regarding the far right

31:13

itself, it is discontent,

31:15

disaffection, disconnection, the housing

31:18

crisis, the economic crisis.

31:21

Natalie Tocci, when you look at

31:23

the makeup of the European Parliament now

31:25

as a result of these elections, the

31:28

parties in the centre and the centre

31:30

right are still the biggest ones. But

31:33

how much should they feel threatened by the

31:35

results of the last few days? Well,

31:38

I think Mariana's absolutely right.

31:40

I mean, these elections have

31:42

been a story of consolidation.

31:45

The two outliers, in many respects, are

31:47

actually France and Germany. And of course,

31:49

they are the largest member states, which

31:52

then explains why there is a net

31:54

positive effect for the far right. But

31:57

it's actually not that

31:59

significant. considering that the overall share

32:01

has increased from 20% to 23%. Having

32:03

said that, I think that

32:08

there is a sense that

32:10

the pro-European forces need to

32:13

work together. I think this

32:15

has and is particularly having

32:17

an impact on actually

32:19

the Greens, which together with the Liberals

32:21

is one of the big losers. Do

32:23

you think specific Green policies will now

32:25

have to be revisited and watered down?

32:27

There's already talk of that happening, isn't

32:30

there? To be honest, actually,

32:32

I think this is an overblown concern.

32:34

The reason why I think so is

32:36

that I find it very difficult to

32:39

see how the actual legislative

32:41

acts are going to be

32:44

reversed. It's a question of

32:46

implementation. But it's also a question of it

32:48

rubbing up against the cost of living crisis, isn't

32:50

it? The fear among voters that the more they

32:52

go Green, the more it will cost them money.

32:54

Yes. I think there are two, in

32:57

fact, three probably big aspects. The first

32:59

where there is going to be a

33:01

slowdown is on questions like agriculture reform

33:03

and environmental protection. You've seen plenty

33:05

of angry farmers in recent times, for example. Exactly.

33:08

In all honesty, there is a

33:10

reason why these issues were left

33:12

until last. It was because they

33:14

were the hardest issues right from

33:16

day one. But then I think

33:18

you put your finger on another big aspect, which

33:20

is the transition costs

33:22

money. It costs money to

33:25

compensate the potential losers from

33:27

the transition. In

33:30

the last five years, yes, we've been

33:32

talking about just transition and a social

33:34

climate fund, but really, there wasn't a

33:36

lot of money behind these initiatives. A

33:38

lot more will have to be done.

33:40

Now, of course, the snag is that

33:43

even a slightly more right-leaning EU, is

33:45

it really an EU which is willing

33:47

to put real money at European level

33:49

to pursue some of that financial compensation

33:52

to the losers? I'm not so sure.

33:54

Marianne Graffini, the body the European

33:56

Parliament is often criticised for being

33:58

very remote. How well

34:00

is it able to communicate, particularly

34:03

with those young voters, in

34:05

what it is trying to do? And is

34:07

that part of the consolidation of the far and

34:09

the hard right story in all of this, do

34:11

you think? Yeah,

34:13

I think that you actually

34:15

pinpointed a quite topical issue

34:18

right now. So the far

34:20

right has extended its appeal,

34:22

cutting across different demographic categories

34:24

thanks to the use of

34:26

social media. So the far

34:28

right now appeals to the

34:30

new generations who can vote,

34:32

but also the ones who

34:34

will be voting in the

34:36

next elections through TikTok or

34:38

Instagram. So there is, I

34:40

think, what we would call

34:42

a spectacularization of politics as

34:45

well, with these glittering and

34:47

very charismatic politicians adopting a

34:49

very down-to-earth and emotional language

34:51

in order to appeal to

34:54

the youth. I know that,

34:56

for instance, the I've Done

34:58

in Germany or the Assembleman

35:01

Nationale with Barthelaf exerts

35:03

a lot of attraction on the

35:06

youth. And indeed, these parties were

35:08

counting on this particular demographic sector

35:10

in order to amass their gains.

35:13

And Natalie Tocci, have the traditional parties got to

35:15

play catch up in that specific area, do

35:17

you think? Yes, I

35:20

mean, I think there are some traditional

35:22

parties that do this better than others.

35:24

I mean, I wouldn't say that the

35:26

far right is necessarily more communication savvy.

35:28

I think it really boils down to

35:31

the personalization of politics.

35:33

I think this is something which is

35:35

true across the political spectrum. It

35:37

is not exclusive to the

35:39

far right. And of course,

35:41

there are some political personalities that are

35:43

better than others that you think, for

35:46

instance, social media. I do,

35:48

though, think that for a long time

35:50

we took for granted this idea that

35:52

youth was progressive.

35:55

I mean, it's clear that youth is

35:57

perhaps more prone to dabbling

35:59

with different alternatives, but these don't

36:01

necessarily have to be of the

36:03

progressive and liberal kind. And I

36:05

think this is probably one

36:08

of the rather newer trends, which

36:10

is emerging, not just from these

36:12

elections, but from national elections in the

36:14

last few months. Director

36:16

of the Institute of International Affairs

36:19

in Rome, Natalie Tocci, before her

36:21

doctor Mariana Graffini from Northeastern University,

36:23

London. Now, a few moments

36:25

ago, I was having what turned out to

36:27

be a brief conversation with Frank Lowenstein,

36:29

former United States Special Envoy for Middle

36:31

East Peace about Anthony Blinken's latest diplomatic

36:34

efforts in the region. Frank is back

36:36

on the line. Apologies, Frank. You were

36:38

in the middle of talking about Benny

36:40

Gantz's resignation and its significance in the

36:43

context of the American approach to all

36:45

of this. Pick up where you

36:47

left off. Okay. Thank

36:49

you, sir. Yeah. So I think it's a

36:51

setback to Secretary Blinken's already very difficult efforts

36:53

to achieve the ceasefire. And the reason is

36:55

because Benny Gantz played a very

36:57

moderating role within Netanyahu's war cabinet.

36:59

He was very much in favor of this ceasefire.

37:01

And I think he really helped move

37:04

BB in that direction with him no longer

37:06

a part of the coalition, the voices of

37:08

the far right of Smotrich and Ben Gevir

37:10

and some of the religious ideologues who are

37:12

in his coalition will only be heard louder

37:15

by Netanyahu. The pressure that he feels will

37:17

come much more from them than it has

37:19

in the past. So I think it's going

37:21

to make Tony's job even more difficult. And

37:23

the ceasefire proposal, I mean, when President Biden

37:25

outlined it, he said it was an Israeli

37:27

proposal, but you've now identified as others have

37:29

the voices within the top

37:31

of the Israeli government that don't

37:34

like it. Mr Netanyahu has vowed to

37:36

resist any such deal until Hamas's military

37:38

and governing capabilities are destroyed. So how

37:40

much of an Israeli proposal is this

37:43

in reality? Well,

37:45

it's really the same proposal that's been out there

37:47

for three or four months now. The parties have

37:49

gone back and forth over this three phase deal.

37:51

And you can talk about the small changes that

37:53

have been made here and there. But the bottom

37:55

line is neither side really wants a ceasefire right

37:57

now. I think the Israelis will do everything they

37:59

can. to avoid being bound by

38:02

that ceasefire agreement while still not

38:04

formally disavowing it. And Hamas is making their lives

38:06

a lot easier because they don't want this deal

38:08

at all. And so they'll continue to do everything

38:10

they can to prevent a deal from coming to

38:12

fruition. Because Hamas will always highlight the difference between

38:14

permanent and temporary when it comes to

38:17

a cessation of violence. Exactly. And

38:20

that's been the core of the disagreement between Israel

38:22

and Hamas for the last three months, whether it's

38:24

permanent ceasefire or temporary ceasefire. The Biden administration has

38:26

gone to literally heroic lengths to try to create

38:29

constructive ambiguity so each side could claim that it

38:31

represented what they stood for. The problem is that

38:33

Netanyahu keeps coming out and saying, no, I'm not

38:35

really going to end this war. I'm going to

38:38

resume it as soon as the hostages are released,

38:40

which leads Hamas to simply say, well, this is

38:42

not a permanent ceasefire then and we're not signing

38:44

on to something temporary. OK. Thank

38:47

you very much for coming back on, Frank Lowenstein,

38:49

with his views on the situation in the Middle

38:51

East. Before we go, a quick look at tomorrow's

38:53

front pages. The Times headline, Tories offer lower taxes,

38:56

help for homebuyers. The paper says

38:58

Sunak makes election pitch as heir

39:00

to Thatcher. The Telegraph front page

39:02

says Sunak offers tax breaks to

39:04

landlords in the Tory manifesto. A

39:07

reminder of our closing headline, the prime minister

39:09

has admitted renting and home ownership has got

39:11

harder under the Conservatives. That in an interview

39:14

with BBC Panorama. And that's the world tonight.

39:16

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