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for details. Hey

1:06

everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast, your

1:09

home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your

1:11

host Tony Edward. On your way in, please

1:13

hit that subscribe button as well as the

1:15

thumbs up button and leave a comment below.

1:17

If you're listening on a podcast platform such

1:20

as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five

1:22

star rating and review. Folks, I want to

1:24

talk about the price of Bitcoin. I see

1:26

a lot of people are panicking. Many

1:29

are worried. Is the bull market over? Look

1:31

at Bitcoin. It continues to dump. It went

1:33

below 60K today. But

1:36

guys, let's leave our emotions at the

1:38

door. Let's look at some metrics, facts,

1:40

charts, and so on and so forth.

1:43

So today Bitcoin printed a big red candle

1:45

on the daily chart. Once again, it went

1:48

below 60K. At the

1:50

time of recording, it is over 60K. But

1:53

let's look at the RSI, the relative

1:55

strength index. We saw a

1:57

bounce on that after Bitcoin hit

1:59

a. super oversold zone, right? And

2:01

we've seen this historically. Bitcoin can

2:03

hit overbought as well as oversold.

2:06

This applies to different altcoins as

2:08

well. So it bounced and it

2:10

started moving upwards. Now, it's not going to

2:12

go up in a straight line, guys. And

2:14

if you look back at what happened in

2:16

last year, August 2023, a

2:19

massive dump that put Bitcoin in

2:21

a very oversold area, and then

2:23

the RSI started bouncing, but the

2:25

RSI in itself was very volatile,

2:27

right? It doesn't go up in

2:29

a straight line. There's many dumps

2:31

along the way as it works

2:33

its way up. But then eventually

2:35

a massive green candle was printed

2:37

and the bull market continued. And

2:39

remember, we were in a bull

2:41

market in 2023. The

2:44

market bottom in December 2022 after the

2:46

FTX collapse. So

2:48

all of last year people calling for recession and

2:51

this is no bull market. It's a bear market

2:53

and the price kept running up. Same

2:55

thing is happening now. People are

2:57

saying, we're not in a bull market,

2:59

dude. Are you crazy? And once again,

3:01

many of them don't show any facts

3:03

or data. They're just emotional about it.

3:06

So let's once again, not be emotional, but

3:08

just look at the data. The RSI is

3:10

in a uptrend here. So it's

3:12

going to keep moving upwards unless there's

3:14

a black swan event, which, you know,

3:17

all bets are off if that happens,

3:19

but we are in the uptrend and

3:21

Bitcoin is bottoming out here as long

3:23

as it doesn't break through below 56

3:26

K should be okay. The

3:28

other factor I want to show you

3:30

is the DXY the dollar currency index,

3:32

which is inversely correlated with Bitcoin and

3:34

risk assets. It is breaking

3:37

down on the daily chart guys in

3:39

its price as well as the RSI.

3:42

This is a great sign for

3:44

a week's night been telling you guys

3:46

about this that it was almost near

3:48

its peak and it would start breaking

3:50

down. Now we need still need full

3:52

confirmation and we could see the employment

3:54

numbers that are coming on Friday have

3:56

an impact on this and hopefully it

3:58

sends it downwards. And

4:00

many analysts are highlighting that this

4:02

is very bearish for the DXY.

4:05

The chart setup is very bearish.

4:07

Here, one analyst highlighted that another

4:09

triangle on the DXY and showing

4:11

that a breakdown is going to

4:14

be coming soon. The

4:16

analyst stated that July and August will

4:18

be great and talking about risk assets,

4:21

of course, because of the inverse correlation.

4:23

Another analyst highlighted that this is a

4:25

potential bearish flag here for the DXY

4:28

and we should see a breakdown. Now,

4:30

guys, this is not guaranteed, right? We

4:32

are forming a thesis based on the

4:34

facts that we have today, but things

4:37

could change tomorrow and Friday and so

4:39

forth. So we have to be open-minded

4:41

and realize that there are no certainties

4:43

here and that we

4:45

have to update our facts as things

4:48

progress. But based on what the data

4:50

and what we're seeing right now, this

4:52

looks bearish. Let's hope, fingers crossed, right,

4:55

that it breaks downwards because that will

4:57

be very good for Bitcoin and

4:59

risk assets. Now, the other factor I want

5:01

to highlight here and let's get no emotions,

5:04

just data. The supply of Bitcoin on exchanges

5:06

is at a very low point right now

5:08

compared to where it was in March. And

5:10

if you're wondering, why the hell does that

5:12

matter? Well, let me give you a summary

5:14

here from Santamin, which is providing the data.

5:16

They're a partner of the podcast. So if

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could check out the link in the description.

5:23

The Bitcoin balance on exchanges

5:25

chart depicts the cumulative Bitcoin

5:28

holdings across different trading platforms.

5:30

When the balance is high,

5:32

it suggests more people may

5:34

be preparing to sell Bitcoin,

5:37

leading to an increased supply

5:39

and potential price drops, ideal

5:41

for short positions. Conversely, a

5:43

low balance suggests fewer sellers

5:46

and thus a potential price

5:48

hump. Great for

5:50

long positions. So we're looking

5:52

at the charts, we're looking at the

5:54

macro with the DXY and what may

5:56

come on Friday with the employment numbers

5:58

and the Fed and so forth. We're

6:00

looking at the Bitcoin balance on

6:02

the exchanges and we're

6:05

seeing signals of continuation of the

6:07

price of Bitcoin and altcoins and

6:09

the bull market continuing. So

6:12

guys, I hope that is helpful. That

6:14

is what I'm looking at and what

6:16

my thesis is for the continuation here.

6:19

And guys, I've been here for multiple bull

6:21

market cycles. I've seen this before and I

6:23

see people getting scared. And

6:26

you have to look at data. You can't just go

6:28

by your emotions. Oh, no, the price is down. Oh,

6:30

no, Bitcoin printed a red candle today. What are we

6:32

going to do? Well, what is

6:34

the data tell us? What's what story is it telling

6:36

us? So I am bullish,

6:38

guys. I expect the bounce coming

6:40

this month. It doesn't mean we're

6:42

rallying to new all time highs

6:44

immediately. It means we are slow

6:47

and steadily moving out of this

6:49

pullback zone. So I hope you

6:51

guys understand that. Let's move ahead.

6:53

We've got big news from Flair.

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Flair has done a big integration here

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this is going to connect Flair to

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7:12

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8:02

Now, guys, we got a very

8:04

interesting article coming out from Forbes.

8:06

The title of that article is

8:08

Trump Sparks Talks of Bitcoin as

8:10

a strategic reserve asset. Guys,

8:13

the narrative is being built here. Bitcoin

8:15

is digital goal, a store of value.

8:17

I hold in my portfolio and we're

8:19

seeing many companies are adding into their

8:21

balance sheet. The Wall Street crowd is

8:23

here. They've got their spotty T apps.

8:25

They're seeing record breaking inflows. You got

8:27

some countries who are making it legal

8:29

tender. And I believe central banks,

8:32

I honestly believe central banks will

8:34

hold Bitcoin in the future as one

8:36

of the reserve assets, including gold and

8:38

other things. So Bitcoin

8:40

with its scarcity value and the

8:43

strong narrative as a reserve asset

8:45

and obviously its performance being the

8:47

best performing asset over the past

8:49

10 to 11 years is going

8:52

to see significant adoption. Nate Garrisi

8:54

of the ETF store weighed in

8:56

on this. He said, highly interesting

8:58

read Trump admin potentially pursuing Bitcoin

9:01

as a strategic reserve asset. A

9:03

quote here is simple game

9:05

theory dictates adoption by one

9:07

nation necessitates other nations consider

9:09

the same, whether friend or

9:11

foe. So, guys,

9:15

the narrative is being laid here. I'm

9:18

so bullish. I've told you guys I'm bullish

9:20

about this cycle, but also future cycles. Just

9:23

imagine what we're going to see in the next

9:25

bull market in 2028 and

9:28

so forth, given

9:30

that Bitcoin has crossed these major hurdles and

9:32

has gone pretty much mainstream with the ETFs

9:34

and companies adding it to their balance sheet,

9:38

we're going to see significant adoption. And this

9:40

is how you get a look at it

9:42

over the years, not the hourly, the weekly

9:44

and the price volatility. But if you look

9:47

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9:49

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10:32

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consensus says the new addition

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your products, uh, more secure because this

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10:57

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11:01

highly secure so that people don't lose

11:03

their funds. We have to prevent as

11:05

many hacks and issues if we want

11:07

to get global adoption of this technology.

11:10

Now, guys, uh, we are seeing

11:12

across the United States, different states

11:15

are embracing crypto in various ways.

11:17

We know Wyoming and Texas have

11:19

been leaders in embracing crypto. Uh,

11:22

but here's an article that highlights what

11:24

some other states are doing. From

11:26

Louisiana to New Hampshire, crypto advocates

11:28

are winning as many states settle

11:30

in for their summer recess. The

11:32

momentum behind digital asset legislation shows

11:34

no signs of slowing down and

11:37

it could shift voters focused to

11:39

many congressional and down ballot races

11:41

this fall. So far in

11:43

2024, we've seen over 30 bills impacting

11:45

digital assets enacted at the state level.

11:47

That's a lot. We're at the middle

11:50

point of the year. So, uh,

11:52

that's more than double the number that

11:54

passed out of the state houses last

11:56

year. We also see progress in both

11:59

Republican and Democratic. states, reflecting

12:01

a broad bipartisan appetite

12:03

for clear and consistent

12:05

crypto-regulation, states are

12:07

seeing the importance of showing the

12:09

work ahead of November. June has

12:11

been a particularly active month for

12:13

state crypto policy in New England,

12:15

the home of a few important

12:18

races and a variety of bills

12:20

addressing key areas such as custody

12:22

requirements, self-hosted wallets, unclaimed property, crypto

12:24

mining, and central bank digital currencies.

12:27

For example, a swing state of

12:29

New Hampshire, which has alternated between

12:31

Democratic and Republican majorities in its

12:34

state legislature since 2006, is

12:37

making moves to expand its

12:39

regulatory framework to include a

12:41

certain digital asset activity. The

12:44

state legislators spent June negotiating

12:46

differences between the House and

12:48

Senate passed versions of HB1241,

12:50

which extends its money-transmitter laws

12:53

to capture virtual currency transmission.

12:55

Folks, this is really great because the

12:58

states are moving faster than the federal

13:00

government, and as they move and get

13:02

things done, it will put pressure on

13:05

the federal government to get things through.

13:08

Obviously, we're seeing some progress on the federal level

13:10

with the FIT21 bill making it out

13:12

of the House. Still has to go through the

13:14

Senate and still has to be signed into law and by a president.

13:17

Which president? I don't know. The

13:19

elections are coming up, but guys, we're seeing a

13:21

move in the right direction. We

13:23

got capital coming in. You got

13:26

big players, stock exchanges, Wall Street

13:28

firms, banks getting involved. We're seeing

13:30

governments embracing crypto both on the

13:32

state level and federal level and

13:35

globally. Guys, I'm

13:37

so bullish and I hope I'm painting the

13:39

picture here of how incredible this stuff is.

13:42

And I say that because I got into the

13:44

market in 2016 and we didn't have anything like

13:47

this. So in a way, I'm

13:49

jealous of the people coming in now, but

13:51

I'm not jealous about the price entry

13:54

points. So I got in at the lows, of

13:56

course, and I've been accumulating and buying

13:58

the dips over So, uh, but,

14:01

but the things that are happening here,

14:03

you can come in and have confidence

14:05

there's no longer the skepticism or the

14:07

stigma of, is this real?

14:09

Is this a fad? Is this

14:12

magic internet money and so forth.

14:14

Now, speaking of global adoption of

14:16

crypto, the Basel committee finalizes crypto

14:18

exposure rules for banks, uh,

14:23

the on and off Rams being built

14:25

for everybody, institutional investors, and, um, as

14:27

well as retail. So the Basel committee

14:30

met on July 2nd and 3rd and

14:32

made policy decisions on issues that included

14:34

disclosure of banks, crypto exposure. Its decisions

14:37

are part of the Basel three reforms

14:39

that were begun in 2019 to enhance

14:42

the resilience of European union

14:45

banks through regulations, supervision, and

14:47

risk management, a disclosure framework

14:49

for banks, crypto assets was

14:51

proposed in December, 2022 and

14:53

opened for comments in May, 2023. The

14:56

framework includes a set of targeted

14:58

amendments to the original proposal and

15:00

revisions to the prudential standard for

15:03

stable coin regulations. So guys, you

15:05

see that they started this process

15:07

years ago and it's now

15:09

coming to pro to fruition. So this is

15:12

why I've been saying you got to be

15:14

patient when it comes to investing, especially in

15:16

a relatively new asset class like

15:18

this. And, uh, you see

15:20

that they're not banning it. They're not saying

15:23

banks, you can't touch crypto. They're saying,

15:25

no, if you can do it, we

15:27

just need you to report it accordingly. Stock

15:29

exchanges, you can hold crypto. You can

15:31

do what you want. Just report it

15:33

to us. That's bullish.

15:35

They're not banning it. They're not outlying

15:37

it. They're embracing it and they're regulating

15:39

and they're going to tax it. You

15:41

know, the governments want a cut of

15:44

that, right? They want that tax revenue

15:46

and all that. So guys,

15:48

amazing things are happening globally for

15:51

crypto. Uh, when in

15:53

doubt, zoom out, be patient and leave

15:55

your emotions at the door and look at the facts

15:57

like this, right? Look at the charts. at

16:00

what the data is telling us. Look at what the

16:02

news is telling us as far

16:04

as adoption and real things happening

16:06

like regulations and the embracing

16:09

of crypto and so forth. Let

16:11

me know what you guys think about this. Leave

16:13

your thoughts and comments below. Don't forget to grab

16:15

a copy of my book, Rethinking Crypto. Grab a

16:17

copy to support the podcast. Grab a couple of

16:19

copies for your friends and family who want to

16:21

learn about crypto. If you bought a copy already,

16:23

please leave a rating and review on

16:25

Amazon. It would really help. Link will be in

16:28

the description. Thank you guys for watching and listening

16:30

and I'll talk to you all later. Hello,

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