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Better Betting with Brad Evans

Better Betting with Brad Evans

Released Thursday, 2nd February 2023
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Better Betting with Brad Evans

Better Betting with Brad Evans

Better Betting with Brad Evans

Better Betting with Brad Evans

Thursday, 2nd February 2023
Good episode? Give it some love!
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Episode Transcript

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0:03

From the King of Sports Books comes

0:07

the Key Sports podcast Unwashed,

0:14

presented by the MGM.

0:17

Here's your host, Jerry Ferrara

0:19

and Olivia Harlan Decker. Super

0:27

Bowl seven is set

0:29

my Kansas City Chiefs first, the Philadelphia

0:32

Eagles Andy Reid Bowl Sunday, February

0:34

twelve, Glendale, Arizona, and we have two

0:36

episodes before kickoff, this one

0:39

and the next one. We will be on site

0:42

in person together. Jerry,

0:44

pack your sunscreen. Are you ready? I am

0:47

ready. I can't believe we're actually going to be, as the kids

0:49

say, I r L in real life

0:51

doing this show, because I don't know. We've done

0:53

twentysomething episodes and uh,

0:56

I'm enjoying it on zoom. But it's gonna be really

0:58

nice to actually be able to look each other

1:00

in the eyes and have a debate or something in

1:02

person. I can't wait. It'll be really nice

1:05

to not like do the everyone

1:07

does on zoom where you accidentally cut someone off over

1:09

and over and go, oh sorry, sorry, it's

1:11

like that never happened? Done that? How many

1:13

times? I mean we've gotten pretty good though, like

1:15

our flow has gotten really good over

1:18

time, but yeah, probably

1:20

two dozen times at least where we say

1:22

the same thing at the same time and someone's delayed.

1:25

Yeah, luckily our editors make it look smoother

1:27

than it usually is. But hey,

1:29

this is, i mean, such a good game. It's

1:31

kind of annoying that there's two weeks to

1:34

Super Bowl because these storylines just get

1:36

hammered. Obviously, we have the First

1:39

Brothers playing against each other. It

1:41

reminded me the First Brothers coaching against

1:43

each other. The Horrible was I think

1:45

almost a bigger story. Um with the first

1:47

black starting quarterbacks, that's huge.

1:50

Andy Reid going against his former team.

1:52

So many storylines to sink our teeth into.

1:54

But Jerry, something very important. What

1:57

about barbecue versus

1:59

cheese steaks. That's a great

2:01

question, you would think me. I've

2:03

not ever been to Kansas City. I'm

2:05

hoping next game, that your next

2:07

playoff game that you're reporting on

2:09

on the sidelines, I could maybe meet you and Sam

2:12

out there and catch a game. My personal

2:14

opinion, you would think it would be Philly because I'm kind of

2:16

close to Philly with New York and all that. But no,

2:18

give me barbecue all day, oh

2:21

day. It's not even cheese steaks.

2:23

Great fine, like good barbecue

2:26

the best I know. I do love a cheese

2:28

steak, but barbecue is more variety, so

2:30

I think food wise, barbecue

2:32

wins that one. Okay, well, you can obviously get

2:34

all the fluff elsewhere. On this show,

2:37

we're bringing you expert advice and

2:39

analysis on betting the Big Game.

2:41

We've got Brad Evans, the host of Live

2:43

on the Line and the ep of gaming content

2:46

at Balley Sports. He's been on before.

2:48

He's joining us to talk props, parlay's,

2:50

and all things betting surrounding the

2:52

Big Game. Look, already, we've had some line

2:54

movement right now, it's the Eagles minus to Jerry

2:57

first impression. My first impression

2:59

is I gotta go at the Eagles here,

3:02

only because I still Mahomes

3:04

play the phenomenal game. And we'll get into the actual

3:06

breakdown, but my first instinct is

3:08

to go the Eagles. They actually I picked

3:10

Eagles Bengals to make the Super Bowl, so I was off,

3:13

and I also screwed up. You know,

3:15

I've hitting these ten point parlay's all

3:17

year long, great record. I did a little

3:20

seven point parlay and I just thought they'd

3:22

both be close games. So I

3:24

basically knocked the Bengals down, and

3:26

I knocked the Niners up thinking

3:29

would be a close game, and the

3:31

Eagles totally, you know, with that blowout just

3:33

crushed my teaser. So I'm

3:35

still leaning Eagles, although you'd be you really

3:37

be a fool to bet against Mahomes. But my initial

3:40

thoughts are Eagles, and do you like it as

3:42

long as it stays under a field goal? I

3:44

love it. I do think it's gonna be a close game.

3:47

I actually have some initial bets. It'll

3:49

be fun to see where Brad Evans and

3:51

Pete, you and me, where we all are and

3:53

our thoughts and picks now, because I just think

3:55

it will change so much once

3:57

we are live at the sports book in

4:00

Phoenix doing this in person. I think

4:02

it's gonna we have the we're reserving

4:04

the right to change our picks in the coming

4:06

week, and

4:10

the Chiefs have so many injuries. We gotta dig into

4:12

that as well. But you mentioned Peter Andrews joining

4:14

us, so that'll be our next betting segments.

4:16

So this whole show, we are really getting into

4:19

the groundwork again two weeks out. But

4:21

next week in person is when

4:24

you can finally hold our feet to the fire and hold

4:26

us to what we say, but right now, it's just fun, Jerry,

4:28

do you want to close some things out in these conference championships?

4:31

We we touched on it a bit, but there's a lot to get

4:33

to. Yeah. I just feel like, uh

4:35

and and congrats to the Chiefs

4:38

in you your second team made it,

4:40

so you know it's gonna be a fun sue role

4:42

for you. I tried not to let the refs kind

4:44

of overshadow the games.

4:46

The Philly Niners game was just a complete bummer.

4:49

It just was a complete bummer. The injury, it just

4:52

and it's no one's fault. I mean, you actually got to give credit

4:54

to the Eagles. They forced that fumble, they

4:56

forced that injury. It was all clean

4:58

and well played. So got that goes

5:01

down with the defense. And I still

5:03

say, just I have not seen two

5:05

lines dominate the way

5:07

the Eagles offensive and defensive lines dominate

5:10

a game. And they've been doing it all year. They

5:12

had a little slide when Hurts was out, So that's

5:15

why I'm still leaning Eagles, because to me, that's

5:17

the thing that stands out most as great as Mahomes

5:19

and Borrow were, and Hurts was

5:21

the thing that jumped off the screen to

5:23

meet the entire weekend is how great

5:26

both Eagles lines are. And

5:29

uh, I think that would hold up in any era,

5:31

both these lines. So that's the thing that jumped off the TV

5:34

to me all weekend. Well, let's stick with that

5:36

game. Obviously we're not having this conversation.

5:38

I think if Fred Warner stayed healthy and if brock

5:40

Purty stayed healthy. So on the forty Niners

5:43

six offensive snap, Hassan

5:45

Reddick strip sacks brock Purty injuring

5:47

his elbow. We now know it's a u c L. He's gonna

5:49

have surgery, and the forty Niners

5:51

had to turn to their fourth string quarterback

5:54

backup Josh Johnson. Although my first

5:56

thought, because I've covered Christian McCaffrey

5:59

in college and a long time, I'm I'm like, Christian

6:01

McCaffrey has played quarterback, he can

6:03

do it, And wouldn't that have been And

6:05

I know he lined up there, I think for a couple of plays, But

6:07

would that not have been such

6:10

an amazing story? This mid season acquisition,

6:13

this kind of you know, once very

6:15

heralded, now kind of catching his stride

6:17

on his childhood favorite team and team

6:20

his dad played on. And if he

6:22

were to save the day, and like, really,

6:24

ball out at quarterback? Would that not have been the best

6:26

story? Look, he almost did his run,

6:29

his tackle breaking run to make it seven

6:31

seven to tie the game before the I

6:33

think it was before the injury. Maybe it wasn't. I'm not even

6:35

sure at this point, but yeah,

6:37

he definitely he was ready to play. And we

6:40

need McCaffrey on this stage to truly

6:43

see how great he is. And I do think he showed

6:45

up. But I mean, all due respect, I

6:47

don't think you want him throwing

6:50

the ball against the Eagles defense.

6:52

And even if you do line them up back there, you know it's going

6:54

to be a wildcat run. They'll put eleven

6:56

in the box. It wouldn't have

6:58

been pretty. So I just think at the minute parody

7:00

went down, there's Josh Johnson.

7:03

I think Josh john maybe kept a little

7:05

closer. I just think the game was over a

7:07

minute party went down, game was over. Also

7:09

weird early in the game, the punt hitting

7:12

that skycam line punt

7:14

hitting the skycam. I know a lot of people yesterday

7:17

and today are talking about challenging the Vanta

7:19

Smith catch, and I you know, I heard Shanahan

7:22

talk about it in depth, and he didn't get a good look

7:24

at the replay because it just showed one and it was in

7:26

conclusive. I mean so many things. I

7:29

still again all valid points,

7:32

I don't think, and I just think that the Eagles

7:34

are the best team in football and

7:36

and I think it's going to take a herculean effort

7:39

from Mahomes and the Chiefs to

7:42

actually stay with them. After that

7:44

Davante Smith catch, I was getting on a

7:46

plane, I was flying and I missed it,

7:48

and Peter Andrew texted me like, this is the worst

7:50

first quarter of football I've ever seen,

7:53

and you as a big forty Niners fan, And I said,

7:56

I said, why, what's happening? He said,

7:58

the Eagles just scored on an incomplete pass

8:01

And I go, how do you do that? I

8:03

took him pretty literally on that, and he's

8:05

like, yeah, well, Also, I want

8:07

to give a shout out to my sister in law. I'm

8:10

over here in Ohio where bet MGM is now

8:12

prominent. She hit both first

8:15

touchdown of the game. Really

8:18

yeah, she had Miles Sanders and Travis

8:20

Kelsey first touchdown.

8:23

So if she and like, I'm

8:25

a big believer in people getting hot

8:27

from all over you never know who it's going to be.

8:29

Could be Brad Evans, it could be my sister in law.

8:32

I don't think for one second I'm not riding

8:34

her pick. And maybe I'll give that pick out next

8:37

Tuesday on first touchdown score of

8:39

the Super Bowl because on a weekend for her,

8:41

not for me, unfortunately. Okay, Then

8:43

getting to the second half, Josh Johnson suffers

8:46

a concussion take taken out of the game.

8:48

Reddick had three tackles, two sacks,

8:50

a quarterback hit, a tackle for loss of force,

8:52

fumble, and a recovered fumble

8:55

and got a quarterback out of the game. So I

8:57

think, I think you've got to love him. Eagles

9:00

defense, don't think for one second

9:03

because I've been a big Hassan Reddick fan

9:05

all year. He has been the most terrifying

9:08

edge rusher that I've seen this year because of

9:10

all the you know, Giants played him three times. Obviously,

9:12

Boss is unbelievable. Reddick is I

9:15

just number seven is everywhere. I

9:17

am a hundred percent betting some

9:19

money on him plus three thousand

9:22

for Super Bowl m v P. I know we don't get a lot

9:24

of defensive Super Bowl MVPs.

9:26

I don't know was the last one. Was

9:28

it a cowboy or a raider? I don't even

9:30

remember the last defensive Super

9:32

Bowl MVP. It has happened, just not in a while. I'm

9:35

betting Hassan Reddick because

9:37

that could be a close game. I think Reddick, and with my home

9:39

is not really mobile, he could have

9:41

three or four sacks, a fumble, recovery, a pick.

9:44

I am betting Hassan Reddick super Bowl m

9:46

v P, not a big amount, A nice A

9:48

nice sprinkle. What's a nice sprinkle?

9:52

Ever? Really talk about what

9:55

your unit is. I don't know what my unit

9:57

is. Wants to have it the side

10:00

it? Yeah, because I'm gonna I'm gonna go through

10:02

all the picks and stuff like that. I just know

10:05

that is something that's on my board. I don't know if

10:07

it's going to be hunter Bucks ten bucks.

10:10

It's going to be something,

10:12

aren't I nosy? No? No,

10:15

I like it look off the air. I'm gonna be like, I'm only betting

10:17

it for two dollars to sound

10:19

like a soft but no, I'm definitely

10:21

gonna take some. I'm too bad at math. I

10:23

will only bet a hundred bucks because the math

10:25

is easy, right, hunter Bucks

10:27

wins you three dollars Reddick

10:30

Super Bowl m v P. Oh Man, I

10:32

disagree that. Look I like Patrick Mahomess

10:35

m v P based on the momentum we

10:37

saw from last weekend, like the crowd chanting

10:39

m v P. He's putting up a herculean

10:41

performance. The way he won the game,

10:44

the way he took that late hit and got him

10:46

in field goal range. I mean, like, he's

10:49

such a dude, and there's

10:51

no way he's not winning m v

10:53

P. And then if the Eagles win, I

10:56

don't know, I don't know what I mean, Like it

10:58

could be heard, it could be I could tell at least

11:00

see like a mile Sanders touchdown

11:02

and uh a gain Well touchdown,

11:05

and it's sort of like not enough offensively

11:08

to declare you were clearly

11:10

the m v P of this win. If

11:12

they do win offensively, That's why

11:14

I just really love Reddit because

11:17

he could be absolutely dominant

11:19

on the devaside. And also everyone's talked about

11:22

deal side, late hit and all

11:24

that, and he played an incredible game. And shoutouts

11:26

to b J Hill for sticking by him in the postgame

11:29

presser, and shoutouts to a

11:31

side for just sitting up there and taking all the questions

11:33

like he you know, after emotions

11:37

that I probably don't think I've ever felt outside

11:39

of my kids being born, and we're you

11:41

know, he's he went through it. So but what I will

11:43

say is, Mahomes

11:45

made that play happen. So you could

11:47

say it was oh, that that play, cause Mahomes

11:49

had the first down. I know they only had eight

11:52

seconds left, no time out, so who knows what would

11:54

have happened that being said with

11:56

with a busted ankle, he turned the corners

11:59

and all to that, and and my body and I were talking

12:01

about it playing hoops this morning. We played in our little

12:03

pickup game. We both had high ankle sprains.

12:06

I feel like the running, yes it hurts, but

12:08

the stopping I think, and you if you really

12:10

watched Mahomes, he was fine once he got

12:13

like his wheels going, but trying to

12:15

come to a stop with a busted high

12:17

ankle sprain is so

12:19

so painful. So Mahomes made that play

12:21

happen. He got an edge with one leg

12:24

and got out of bounds. So you

12:26

know, But also I play the hell of a game. He's an incredible

12:28

player and people need to back the heck

12:30

off. And I like

12:32

that his teammates are now being more

12:34

vocal about that. Well, everything you just

12:37

mentioned about Mahomes is why I think he'll

12:39

be m v P. But Jalen hurts, as

12:41

you mentioned, if the Eagles win, obviously depending what

12:43

kind of game he has. But he didn't

12:45

have to do too much because the Eagles,

12:47

as you have mentioned top to bottom,

12:49

are so talented and they can score in so many ways.

12:52

They can get stops in so many ways. But he was

12:54

fifteen one

12:56

yards, ran for thirty nine yards and

12:58

a touchdown on eleven carries. He is great

13:00

on his feet. But look, fans thought Mike

13:02

Shanahan should have done more, including

13:04

go to the Wildcat with McCaffrey like we talked

13:07

about. Um, I guess

13:09

I can't. I love you, said Mike Shanahan.

13:11

You mean Kyle his dad. Mike his dad might

13:13

have went to the Wildcat. Mike might have gone

13:15

to the Wildcat. Kyle Shanahan. Yeah,

13:20

I feel like I can't quite like

13:22

give the Eagles their flowers because

13:24

of what they had to beat. You

13:27

know, I know it's not their fault, but I

13:29

can't just like stand in rally for the Eagles

13:31

quite yet because of the

13:35

how they walked in now to the Super They have not been

13:37

tested in a very very

13:39

long time. You could argue that, you

13:41

know, and even that Giants the last

13:44

game of the regular season, which the Giants didn't need and

13:46

played all their second stringers, and the

13:48

Eagles are clearly not going to show anything. They

13:50

would try to win that game to

13:52

secure the one seed without getting it hurt. They

13:54

didn't show anything, and a lot of people tried to panic.

13:57

All the Eagles didn't look good versus the second

13:59

unit of the aience that Syriani's

14:01

played this thing perfectly. They're

14:03

pretty healthy, you know, Lane

14:06

Lane Johnson not so much, and

14:08

I know, you know hurts everyone's banged up,

14:10

but for relative like health for

14:12

a team at this point in the season, they're

14:14

relatively healthy, which is all you needed.

14:17

So but yeah, they haven't been tested in weeks

14:19

weeks. Again, it shouldn't

14:21

be a knock on them. But I I

14:23

also am not just here to jump

14:26

on the Eagles bandwagon quite yet, just

14:28

a typo in the forty n season though ironically

14:31

we had just been talking about this last week.

14:33

If brock Purty goes

14:35

to the Super Bowl for sure, is he automatically

14:38

the starter next season. Now we

14:41

have a real conversation because now he's gonna have surgery

14:43

on his throwing elbow, and

14:45

I'm sure you know he's a young dude. These guys have the best

14:48

staff in the world, like they he'll be

14:50

fine, he'll recover fine. But it does

14:52

beg the conversation of is

14:55

it a competition. There's a lot

14:57

that it's like an incredible almost

14:59

a SHPOs season one cliffhanger

15:02

of a show that you really really like and

15:04

you're really into and you're like, how is this

15:06

going to end? And like the finale was really

15:09

good, didn't wrap up the whole

15:11

first season of the show, but it made

15:13

you say, gosh, now, I just when a

15:15

season two gonna happen. It's like waiting for the next

15:17

season of Succession to come out. So

15:19

that's what it's gonna be like, waiting to see how this purty

15:21

thing plays out. I just think

15:24

it's all gonna add. We've talked about this many times.

15:26

It's gonna be an awesome free

15:28

agency sort of quarterback speed

15:31

dating round. Uh in the off

15:33

season. I think I think it's gonna be really

15:35

really fun. Absolutely so

15:38

over to the a f C and we've been double dipping

15:40

because it's hard to just not talk about this weekend

15:42

and bring in Mahomes in some capacity. But

15:44

my question to you is Bengals

15:47

Chiefs now as a rivalry Considering

15:49

all four games between these two star

15:52

young quarterbacks have been decided by three points,

15:54

Mahomes finally getting his first one in the series,

15:57

and the talk and of

16:00

postgame interviews and all

16:02

of the drama and burrow Head and

16:05

there's a political figure involved with

16:07

the mayor of Cincinnati. Do you

16:09

feel like this rivalry is now the

16:11

biggest in the NFL. Definitely

16:13

in the a f C. Obviously, I feel like Josh

16:15

Allen might be the odd man out there, but yeah, it

16:18

is because the NFC just doesn't have the quarterback

16:20

matchups to back it up. So yes, I do think

16:22

it's like this one's personal. It's personal.

16:25

Couple of things on this. So I do some

16:27

work for the Knicks with Knicks Gaming and

16:29

I got to learn under a woman

16:31

named Kristen Berner who was an executive for MSG.

16:34

She was incredible, taught me a lot and

16:36

she very much. During one of the

16:38

two K League video game tournaments,

16:41

like I was kind of trash talking one of

16:43

the players, and she very much like she's like that

16:45

guy, you don't talk trash to you

16:47

talk trash to any the other ones

16:49

him No, because it's too much. And

16:52

I feel like the Bengals all week long.

16:55

I get it's like an alpha move their show,

16:57

but I just think it was the wrong time

17:00

and the wrong bunch of dudes. So

17:02

yeah, the mayor getting by the way, that was corny.

17:05

Mayor like that is. I just if

17:07

I was the mayor of any city that's competing for

17:09

a Super Bowl, I would be at home praying.

17:11

I wouldn't be out in front doing Borrow

17:14

is your daddy? That is? So that was so corny.

17:17

That was all they like they deserved to lose for that. That

17:19

was terrible, terrible.

17:21

I hated that. I hated it. On that

17:23

note, I know I'm skipping ahead, but

17:26

we've got to insert it right here are

17:28

fantastic audible of

17:30

the week. It's the Chiefs tight end Travis

17:32

Kelsey. Take it away to Travis. Hey,

17:37

I've got some wise words for that Cincinnati

17:40

mayor. No, you'll roll and shut

17:42

your mouth. You're your brony. You

17:47

kinna find you, all right.

17:56

So Jerry, I mentioned earlier the Chief's injuries.

17:59

A lot of this happened in the second half of

18:01

the game, and I know we've got two weeks

18:04

until the Super Bowl.

18:06

However, my concerns go beyond

18:08

Patrick Mahomes. It goes beyond Travis Kelsey's

18:11

back, because the Chiefs lost three receivers

18:14

in that game. Caldarius Tony

18:16

McCole Hardman, who had finally come

18:18

back first game since November, and

18:21

that was a huge deal. We thought he was coming back

18:23

in the game. I did the Jacksonville game before and

18:25

no can do. He had a setback anyways,

18:27

Candarius Tony McCole Hardman, and that was

18:29

hard to see because he's gripping his abs, which

18:31

was his injury. And Juju Smith

18:34

Schuster. So three receivers, not to mention

18:36

linebacker Willie Gay and cornerback

18:39

Lagarius Need. That happened early in the game.

18:42

I mean, Chiefs took a beating

18:44

and their leader, their start. All

18:46

people could talk about all week was Patrick Mahomes

18:49

ankle and they've really got

18:51

their work cut out for him and the next two weeks get healthy.

18:53

So that's got to be monitored they do. I know, we

18:55

always complain, Uh wow, that

18:57

week when there's no football. It's like it's

19:00

oh tough, And I don't know why on earth the

19:02

Phoenix Open. I think it's formerly the Waste Management

19:04

Open. Why are you still on the Super Bowl

19:06

Sunday weeken. I get it, it's awesome that said,

19:08

but you should be the weekend before give us something to

19:10

watch. It's crazy the amount. I'm not surprised

19:13

that the Tony injury, he's perpetually

19:15

hurt. He's going back to his days

19:17

with the Giants. Just you play a great game, yeah,

19:19

I just that doesn't surprise me. I feel

19:21

bad for hard Man. What I still can't

19:23

believe. And this is why I when

19:25

my sister in law sent me her first anytime

19:27

score, the first time first touchdown

19:29

score a thing, I'm like, there's no way Kelsey scoring

19:32

this game. There's just not How are

19:34

you not triple teaming Kelsey.

19:36

There's no way that the

19:38

Bengals will any score the first touchdown of the game.

19:40

So I think as long as you have Kelsey, you

19:42

have a chance. I love to check out, but yeah, it's

19:45

the training staff. I think everyone has their eyes

19:47

on the Chiefs training staff in the next ten

19:50

days because they got their work cut out. They

19:52

got to get those those players healthy,

19:54

they might collectively win Super Bowl MVP.

19:58

And I know we talked a lot about Reddick, but also

20:00

shout outs to Chris Jones. He

20:02

was incredible. The Chiefs pass rush

20:05

was better than the Bengals pass rush.

20:07

I know the Bengals offensive line is a makeshift.

20:10

We thought they figured it out versus the Bills.

20:12

That might have just been a one off because Jones

20:15

was all over the place. Okay, before

20:17

we get to unleash, I just have to ask you one more thing,

20:19

Jerry, what did you think about the Empire State

20:22

Building lit up green and red?

20:24

You're a New York guy, was that personal? I don't

20:26

understand. I know we don't. We don't curse often

20:28

on this show, but what the fuck?

20:32

That's what I said, Like what, I didn't know if it was

20:34

real my being trolled because

20:36

I lived, you know, in Williamsburg. I

20:38

had a great little view of the Empire State Building. I used

20:40

to always come and, oh, the Empire State bilions orange

20:42

today because the Knicks are playing right, I

20:45

just think that's crazy, crazy

20:47

crazy crazy. And

20:49

now another mayor's involved. Mayor Adams needs to

20:51

figure out who did that? Yeah, yeah, all

20:53

right, let's get to our unleash.

20:57

It's well,

21:05

you know a lot of people are talking about Andy Reid

21:07

facing his former team. He spent thirteen

21:09

seasons there, He won a ton of games. Apparently

21:12

everyone who worked there was very sad

21:14

when he was fired. I believe there was a cake

21:16

a send off party by the staff, like it

21:18

was a big deal. People thought he'd maybe take a couple

21:21

of years off, deal with the family trauma he

21:23

had just gone through. Was a lot going on, but

21:25

nope. Three days later, after Andy

21:27

Reid was fired by Philly, he was hired by

21:30

Kansas City. Took one of the worst teams

21:32

in the NFL straight to the playoffs

21:34

in year one, and took a lot of the Philly

21:36

staff with him. Look up and down

21:38

the Chiefs coaches roster, the list

21:41

from trainers to position coaches.

21:43

Two guys who have gone on to become head coaches

21:45

who came to Kansas City with him from

21:47

Philly. Many have made

21:49

that move with them, so you can understand

21:52

why it's a storyline. But did

21:54

you know that Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni

21:56

was actually in Kansas City on

21:59

the Chiefs coaching staff before Andy

22:01

Reid. He was a wide receiver coach

22:03

and he was fired by Andy

22:06

Reid when he came to town because he brought

22:08

in his own guys. So don't you think

22:10

that that storyline is juicier?

22:13

Like Andy Reid doesn't have revenge

22:15

to get on Philly. I think that storyline

22:17

is actually kind of dead. They parted ways

22:19

amicably, both were ready for a change of

22:22

scenery. But if you're Nick Sirianni, aren't

22:24

you ready to stick it to the guy who fired

22:26

you early in your career. I think

22:29

that this does more for Philly than for Andy

22:31

Reid. Yes, the fire storyline.

22:33

Also, Andy Reid got them to the super

22:35

Bowl in Philly but did not win. Were

22:38

they only one once he left? So I

22:40

think, if anything, this adds to the Eagles.

22:43

And uh yeah, I just think that again, if we've

22:46

learned nothing, stay away from bolton

22:48

board material. I get it. Maybe it is a thing,

22:50

Maybe it isn't. I just would, Yeah,

22:52

I don't. I don't know how much people are you talking

22:54

about you fired, Nick Sirianni. If I'm Andy

22:56

Reid, I'm hoping that doesn't come out so

22:59

good. Thing you just put him on blast to live love

23:01

did you know that I had no idea.

23:04

I honestly, I don't know a ton

23:06

about Nick Sirianni before last year

23:08

when you got the job. But I think, you

23:10

know, everyone talks about Dable coach of the years,

23:13

like, yes, for sure, but I

23:16

don't know Syrian. He's a great coach.

23:18

Yeah, he was there under two different head coaches.

23:20

He survived one chief's head

23:22

coach firing and then I think it was Romeo Cornell

23:25

was his next head coach, and then he got fired. Andy

23:27

comes to town and fires him. I mean, I

23:30

think that's bolton board material. It's it's

23:32

one of those like I wrote all the names down from

23:35

the people they passed on me in the draft,

23:37

and I put it in my helmet the first year. That's

23:39

like exactly what it is. That's a good one.

23:41

My unleashed is just you know how I have

23:43

very strong feelings about Super Bowl Sunday

23:45

or Super Bowl Saturday. We've talked about that

23:47

whole year. I get I lost that battle,

23:50

fine, sure, Although I

23:52

applaud everybody to just the Saturday

23:54

night before the Super Bowl when you're doing whatever,

23:57

I just really think, like, how

23:59

would it would feel to be watching the Super Bowl

24:01

in that moment. But I digress. I want to

24:03

talk about the weekend before because

24:06

I know the Waste Management Open. I

24:08

think now it's the Phoenix Open was

24:10

once before. Either way, I don't

24:12

know why that golf tournament is

24:14

not happening the weekend before when

24:16

we all have nothing to watch. Someone needs to

24:19

own that weekend. And

24:21

basketball. Sure, by this point with basketball,

24:24

we're all limping to the All Star break a little bit

24:26

and we're all starting to feel like, Okay, these regular season

24:28

games are great, but we want some playoff type action.

24:30

So I don't think it could be basketball. I think

24:33

golf will be like the perfect in

24:35

between sport. Just own that

24:37

weekend. Everyone's already dying

24:40

to stop talking about the game. They just want to get

24:42

to the game. There's no more analysis that

24:44

we've already talked about, prop that's a million times.

24:47

Get just do it. Just switch to

24:49

that weekend and own it. Own it. I just

24:51

don't get the business philosophy. There's a

24:53

huge gap in the market. There's

24:55

no product. It's supplied and demand.

24:58

Give the people what they want. I I'm

25:00

fully on board with you on that. And it is

25:02

funny because I think one of the first things that you

25:04

unleashed on on like episode one was

25:06

to move the Super Bowl to Saturday. And let's

25:09

talk about that more next week when we're in person.

25:11

Can't wait, and I'm gonna I'm gonna be out there singing

25:14

for my supper because I will die on that hill.

25:16

I love it all right, enough of us, let's get to

25:18

our guest. Okay,

25:28

let's bring in our guest. Some people follow

25:30

his tips, some people fade him, but either

25:32

way, he's constantly giving out some of the best

25:34

betting advice out there. It's the ep of

25:36

gaming content for Valley Sports and host

25:39

of Live on the Line. Brad Evans.

25:41

Noisy huavos is your Twitter handle, and I've

25:43

just gotta ask what does that mean? Well,

25:46

I failed remedial Spanish,

25:49

but I do remember what wavos are,

25:51

and it means loud, gold eggs

25:53

and waves and Espanol is

25:56

a slang phrase for bulls. So

25:59

I have balls essentially. Oh,

26:03

I love it. Okay with your loud balls,

26:06

But what is your favorite

26:08

sporting event of the year to bet? Is it the

26:10

Super Bowl or is it something more obscure

26:12

that you just get really excited about. It's definitely

26:14

not necessarily something obscure. I am

26:16

a college hoops junkie admittedly,

26:19

and I love March Madness at the beginning of the end.

26:22

If you follow me and my spreadsheet at Noisy

26:24

Vos on Twitter, I post

26:26

my free picks every single day,

26:28

always free, always transparent. I'm impossibly

26:31

up like fifty units right now in college basketball,

26:33

and it's all gonna come comber link down here

26:35

in short order. But I absolutely

26:38

adore college basketball. I live in Champagne,

26:40

Illinois, the home of the University of Illinois,

26:42

fighting in line. I I attend games. It's

26:44

my favorite sport of the planet. Your husband was

26:46

a favorite of mine way back in the day Olivia as

26:49

a member of the Wiskians in Bajors and

26:51

that commence. Yeah

26:55

they did. But they want me a lot of money in the process,

26:57

you know. And I love Bo Ryan as

26:59

well, when my favorite old time college basketball

27:02

head coaches. So yeah, for me,

27:05

it's unrivaled. It is a hundred

27:07

thousand percent the ins a tournament.

27:09

But yeah, I'll lose a few shekels on

27:11

the Super Bowl as well. I'll go as

27:13

far as to say, and that's one of my favorite

27:15

things to bet as well. March Madness has

27:17

single handedly kept the bachelor party

27:20

alive. There's more friends

27:22

who have called me in the last ten years who said

27:24

we're getting married, saying we're doing it. I give

27:27

you to tell me bachelor party. I'm ready, I'm out

27:29

right away. But then when you start saying we're gonna go

27:31

the Vegas March Madness weekend,

27:33

this is long before you could do all this betting on your phone.

27:36

That used to be the only way to lure me out of

27:38

my house to a bachelor party. So props

27:40

to March Madness. We're also keeping the bachelor

27:42

party alive. Yeah, Jerry, I'll just put

27:44

a chair on top of that. Sunday, Well, the great ways

27:47

to start off if you're doing a bachelor maybe

27:49

a bachelorette party during the n s A tournament

27:52

wake up, but I don't know, seven thirty

27:54

eight o'clock in the morning, shake off the hangover

27:56

from the night before activities

27:58

and obviously you were probab like drowning your sorrows

28:00

and some of the units that you lost, and get back

28:03

on the horse into a race

28:05

to fifteen wager on the very

28:08

first game all that day's and see

28:10

tournaments late. I've seen it live

28:12

and in person. We do episodes of

28:14

Live in Line there every single year from

28:16

Sin City. We're gonna be back there this year.

28:19

And that's uh the rite of passage that

28:21

everybody should take, and I have taken it way too

28:23

many damn times in my life. So race

28:26

the fifteen first game on the board.

28:28

I don't care who's playing. I'm in getting

28:30

back to the big game coming up. We were just talking

28:33

about all of the Chiefs injuries since

28:35

we've got two weeks to do nothing but talk

28:37

about this game, and the Chiefs have two

28:39

weeks to get healthy a couple of Eagles players

28:41

too. But do you like to take the numbers

28:43

where they're at now and hope that

28:46

health just comes along, or do you wait

28:48

and see and be cautious and methodical

28:50

about it? Well, you guys know, like college

28:53

basketball, I'm also a player props junkie, So

28:55

I'm waiting for a lot of those numbers to surface,

28:57

and if it's a good number, I'm immediately jumping off.

29:00

And I've already have four of those tickets open

29:02

as a matter of fact, but I immediately

29:04

grab the Kansas City Chiefs and they went to plus

29:07

money on the money line. I could not really

29:09

fathom that the line had swung

29:11

so much in so little of a time. Ember

29:13

they open is one a half point favorites in

29:15

this game and out there too too and half point dogs.

29:18

So I took the money line immediately a plus one ten

29:20

because there will be some good news. It's

29:22

obviously gonna come out about Patrick Mahomes and

29:24

some of the wide receivers, Juice Smith, Schuster

29:27

and various other players who are banked

29:29

up because they have oodles of time to get

29:31

right uh and be ready

29:34

in time for kickoff. But once

29:36

some of that news resonates and trickles

29:39

out, I think it's gonna sway the line

29:41

back too close to a pick um by

29:43

kickoffs. So right now I think the value completely

29:46

resides. If you're willing like I

29:48

am, to side with the Kansas City Chiefs

29:50

on that plus money because it's money Mahomes,

29:53

How could you bet against him as an underdog. You

29:55

know what I'm doing right now, I'm going to take

29:57

that. I didn't realize it was plus money money line.

29:59

I'm deaf, really taking Chief's money line

30:02

plus one oh five as of right now on

30:05

bat MGM plus one oh five, and

30:07

the Chiefs are still plus one and a half on

30:09

the spread. You know, these two teams have been so

30:11

interesting all year because I, like you know, and

30:13

I was a big teaser guy with the Chiefs because I just

30:15

never trusted them to cover some

30:17

of those high numbers. You could trust them on the money

30:20

line. The Eagles, I've always felt

30:22

this whole year, was such a first half

30:25

front running team and in the second half it's a who

30:27

knows. Do you think any of these trends are the things

30:29

that we've learned about these two teams from

30:31

the regular season hold up

30:33

in the super Bowl? Or when when it comes to the Super Bowl

30:35

does all that sort of trending information

30:39

fall out? And you have to just stay in the moment of where these two

30:41

teams finished off the prior week or two. Yeah,

30:43

that's the ultimate question. Is the trend your friend

30:45

or is it a foe? And I think

30:47

it's more of the ladder because it's a one game sample

30:50

size. You know, you can back everything up with sound

30:52

logical reasoning, but you know, in the

30:54

moment, given the fact that you know

30:56

tens of millions or billions of people that are watching

30:58

this contest, this singular game worldwide,

31:02

and the nerves is gonna be taken a hold

31:04

for a lot of these guys who haven't been there before.

31:06

Yeah, everything logical just gets

31:09

thrown out the window. So you know, sensible

31:11

and reasonable takes don't really apply

31:14

in my estimation. Uh in many

31:16

ways. That's why I don't wager and

31:18

a godly amount of my units on a

31:20

single contest. I would rather sprinkle

31:22

it across some swack action or

31:25

some whack action uh in college

31:27

basketball than this one event

31:30

on the betting slate. But you know, the one

31:32

thing that I really want to harp on here, guys,

31:34

is I think strength of schedule is gonna play major

31:36

factor in this game because Kansas

31:38

City has really played a

31:40

more rigorous slate of teams

31:43

leading up to this moment than the Philadelphia

31:45

Eagles. And you know, I have the numbers

31:47

to back it up. Philadelphia has number thirty one

31:49

according to Sagarin and overall strength

31:51

of schedule out of thirty two NFL teams,

31:53

Kansas City build the pack number sixteen that

31:56

category. And if we look at the history

31:59

of teams that have have a ten

32:01

place divide and again thirty

32:03

one verses sixteen. The teams

32:05

that have played the stronger strength of schedule

32:08

are ten and two straight up in

32:10

super Bowls. So in

32:12

that since two thousand four, So again,

32:15

all the more reason for you,

32:17

miss Decker to throw some cash

32:20

down on the Kansas City

32:22

Chiefs on that plus one of five money line before

32:24

that line swings and the chiefs

32:27

of laying minus money. Give

32:29

me another obscure stat Go ahead, I love

32:31

that one teams with the tougher strength of schedule

32:33

ten and two in the Super Bowl. What else, we guys,

32:36

something about colors or who

32:38

wins the coin toss, Like, give me some of these. I

32:40

know you've got them. Oh yeah, your day date

32:42

right on the head coin toss. Here you go. Here's

32:45

the history, guys, Tales it never

32:47

fails right well the

32:49

time, it's actually it. So it's

32:51

more than just a fifty fifty proposition.

32:54

Heads is twenty seven times historically,

32:57

Heads has the longest winning streak,

32:59

act it say, of any of the two inferences,

33:03

as hands as hit five times

33:05

in a row in the past, Tales hit four

33:07

times in a row three times

33:09

in the Super Bowl. So if you just want to

33:11

piss away your money for the opening wager,

33:14

and surely we all do at even

33:16

odds. I say tales never fails.

33:18

I will go with the trend. It will be in my friend

33:20

here at compare to heads historically

33:23

hitting it all right,

33:25

Brad, I think I'm gonna need you to either talk

33:28

me into or talk me

33:30

out of something, depending on how you feel that. I

33:32

talked to a little a little bit about this earlier in the show.

33:34

She's trying to figure out exactly how many units

33:36

I was talking about. I did not disclose that information,

33:39

so your advice here might really determine

33:41

that. But I like to take some big swings

33:43

on Super Bowl MVP. Of course, it's easy to

33:46

pick her or homes. I get it,

33:48

that's super easy. But there's a name that's

33:50

standing out. It's like in Boogie Nights when he's

33:52

like, I keep seeing that name Dirk Diggler and Neon

33:55

Lights. There's a name that keeps

33:57

standing out to me. For m v P. The

34:00

odds are amazing. We haven't seen a

34:02

defensive Super Bowl MVP in a

34:04

long long time. I'll make

34:06

the case quickly. But I love Hassan

34:08

Reddick. Super Bowl m v P

34:11

plus three thousand and here's why. Obviously,

34:13

the Eagles need to win the game, but I just look

34:15

at that offense. Yes, of course Hurts could

34:17

do it with the rushing in the passing yards, but I could

34:19

also see him just managing the game.

34:22

Miles Sanders grabs the TV maybe

34:24

Gainwell or Dallas Goddard grab one

34:26

and just do enough offensively to win. But

34:28

that defense Reddick last week

34:31

was destroying people. And I've

34:33

seen him three times with the Giants, and that

34:35

dude looks like he's moving like it's a video

34:37

game. So I need you to talk

34:39

me into this long shot or talk

34:41

me out, and I'll decide about the units

34:43

once I hear your take on this. Jerry,

34:46

don't drain the bank roll on this prop

34:48

at all, especially at the long odds. But

34:51

is it foreseeable? Is it doable?

34:53

I think you make it compelling case, and

34:55

that is the case of a long chat. It's very rare

34:58

that you get a defensive MBV in a

35:00

Super Bowl. Usually it's gonna go with the game

35:02

winning quarterback, likely gonna be Jalen

35:04

Hurts if it is the Eagles that indeeds Hoyst

35:07

the Lombardi Trophy in the end, or it's gonna be Patrick

35:09

Mahomes on the other side. But if you want to chuck a

35:11

hail Mary. Maybe you get a turnover

35:13

from whereticet the game. You know, some

35:15

key moments where he is the

35:18

key figure in that particular

35:20

moment in time. Maybe just

35:23

maybe he can garner enough attention

35:25

and enough votes in the end to get

35:27

that m v P trophy. So sure, why

35:30

the hell not? Man, I'm not gonna speak for anybody

35:32

else's money, It's yours. You're an accomplished

35:34

actor. Just go ahead and make it ring. My

35:36

comp is the is von Miller in That's

35:40

that's sort of what I the path I would

35:42

pitch, you know, similar type,

35:44

both great edge rushers. I do feel like if it

35:46

were barring someone getting three interceptions,

35:49

it would be an edge rusher. But

35:51

yeah, that was the last time you saw it was Von Miller,

35:53

last defensive player to win m v P beautiful.

35:56

I gotta ask you this because Jerry's sister in law

35:59

is apparently a saf on and she nailed both

36:01

first touchdown scorers this past weekend.

36:03

What's your approach to first touchdown score I

36:07

don't play it, to be honest, except for

36:09

last week and this is a true story,

36:11

guys. I had the first touchdown

36:14

prop in the a f C title game

36:16

on k Darius Tony, and

36:18

we all saw what happened with

36:21

that first touchdown prop. I

36:23

was nearly doing ge dancing around

36:25

in my living room, and then I watched the replay and I'm

36:27

like, oh, that ain't catch, and then he exits

36:30

stage left with the agle injury,

36:32

and I'm like, well, there's no chance of redemption

36:35

at all, so they are dead to me.

36:37

I am never going to ever wager

36:39

again on the first touchdown

36:42

prop, whether it's a Super Bowl or whatever.

36:44

However, if you feed me enough tequila, maybe

36:46

I'll be convinced. Otherwise, you

36:50

know which one I all. I also like to And

36:53

this is if you're sticking with the defense of

36:55

it all, and I don't know your your feelings on this,

36:57

I feel like we may very well see either and I'm

37:00

might do a little sprinkling of either defensive

37:02

touchdown or safety in

37:04

the game, which you do sometimes get late

37:06

and it happens out and there are usually

37:08

really great odds. I don't know. I just

37:10

feel like these defenses might factor

37:13

in more than the two great offenses.

37:15

But there I just feel like the defense is my factor

37:17

in a lot. Jerry, absolutely love you.

37:20

You were chasing, uh, the incredible

37:22

long odds on every single one of these

37:24

wagers because you can't make a compelling

37:27

argument that they could occur. But

37:29

there's a reason why they were long odds. Right,

37:32

I'd like to safety approach. You know, maybe we get like

37:34

Seattle Denver from a few years ago all over

37:36

again. Maybe it's an airmailed

37:38

snap over the quarterback's head like we saw

37:40

him that contest, and it sets the

37:42

tone for the entire game. And you cash a winning ticket

37:45

like in the first two minutes of the game. That

37:47

would be remarkable. That would be stunning, And

37:49

I think you should just not wear pants the rest of the

37:51

day if that does. You

37:53

did like my Reddick pitched down. The defensive touchdown

37:56

and the the and the safety. Those are

37:58

like lottery tickets. But do you liked what

38:01

I put together for Reddick? Right? How about

38:03

all of them and let's correlate, synergized,

38:05

bring it all together. Maybe they all

38:07

hit at the same time. Maybe Reddick gets like

38:09

a stripped sack and we get

38:11

a defensive scoop and score,

38:13

or he sacks the quarterback in the end

38:15

so for the safety and then they

38:18

yeah, it's over. You'll need

38:20

to do any more movies. You need not

38:23

do any more TV shows. You just rude

38:25

off of the sunset and buy an island

38:27

in the Bahamas. No podcast, sorry,

38:29

Olivia. If yeah,

38:33

maybe a little maybe every other week. I don't

38:35

know, but you have to get me off the golf course

38:37

because I'll be living somewhere warm where there's

38:39

a lot of Okay, we talked about

38:41

coin toss. Bet MGM offers a lot

38:43

of fun novelty props, including the coin toss.

38:46

Another one is which team calls

38:48

the first time out? Is there any strategy

38:50

to that one? Nothing? I mean, it's all

38:53

in the moment. Best guess, you

38:55

know, could be play cock running down

38:57

and nobody's really paying attention to

38:59

what is going on in that particular moment. He gotta,

39:02

you know, call of time out. I will give

39:04

you some semblance of sound

39:06

reasoning as to why this might hit.

39:08

I would go with the Eagles just because

39:10

of the relative inexperience

39:13

obviously in the playoffs for Jalen Hurts,

39:15

although he is a guy that's played in some massive

39:17

moments at the collegiate level and so

39:19

far getting to this moment, those are massive

39:21

moments in their own right, But maybe,

39:24

just maybe Kansas City, can

39:26

you know, rereak enough havoc or cause

39:28

some confusion and their defensive setup

39:30

that makes him second guess something and he got a call

39:32

an early time out. So if I gotta flip

39:35

a coin, I'm already on tails.

39:37

Never fails, I say the Eagles follow

39:39

that mantra as well. I don't even know who had

39:41

this prople years ago. I think it was this

39:43

prop years ago. I don't think MGM bet MGM

39:46

offers this prop. I'm glad they don't.

39:48

I think someone's gonna break a record. I

39:50

think the record of cutaways to

39:52

the booth into the suites

39:54

of another play. I think Peyton Manning broke it the

39:56

year Eli and the Giants want and beat

39:59

it, beat the defeated Patriots. They must

40:01

have cut to Peyton six times.

40:04

What would be the over under for cutaways

40:06

to Donna Kelsey this Sunday,

40:09

both Kelsey brothers, mothers. I put

40:11

it at three and a half cutaways

40:13

to Donna Kelsey, you over under

40:15

way over, and that that would be the number. I

40:17

would set the line at would be three and a half. But you

40:20

gotta smash it, man, I mean Travis

40:22

every time Travis Kelty catches

40:25

a ball and you know, and it's probably

40:27

gonna be five or six, maybe seven or eight. In

40:29

this game, there's an opportunity for

40:31

a cutaway. He scores a touchdown, you

40:33

know, damn well, they're cut of cut away

40:35

to that booth. Then, of course, just

40:37

bring it up the whole Kelsey Brothers

40:40

Bowl narrative. That's gonna be a cut

40:42

of way. So minimum of two,

40:44

maximum of eight fits three

40:46

and a half. Dude, we're Windmills

40:48

slam dunking like Dominique Wilkin style.

40:51

The over on that that's already up to four and a half.

40:53

Now, based on that, all I will say to

40:55

make the counterpoint you mentioned a great point. Travis

40:58

Kelsey, We're gonna probably hear is n him a lot. I don't

41:00

know how often we'll hear his brother's name

41:02

because of his position that he plays right, So

41:05

that maybe might be your reasoning to go under.

41:08

But let's stick with Travis Kelsey for one more second,

41:10

too, because I think he has defied

41:13

all the odds after that Jaguars

41:15

game, or it just seemed preposterous

41:17

that he was scoring touchdowns left and right, because

41:19

how do you not have him double covered. I said,

41:22

there's no way he catches a touchdown versus the Bengals.

41:24

The Bangers are too smart. They know how this team

41:26

plays. Of course, my sister in law disagreed

41:28

with me that bet him to get the first time, and

41:30

he did, and I just think he's

41:33

defining the any time T

41:35

d Odds. It's one of the best runs ever.

41:37

And now the Eagles, if they're full strength defensively,

41:40

there's just no way Kelsey could get in the end.

41:42

So how would you even let that happen? With

41:44

how banged up the Chiefs are. They can't

41:47

let it happen because in the regular season

41:49

they gave up eighty one receptions. It ain't hundred yards

41:51

and tied in position. So Kelsey, it

41:54

just has a knack. He is slick, he is savvy,

41:56

He finds the open space, and

41:58

he is imper perfect rhythm

42:01

right now with Patrick Mahomes. So just

42:03

like you saw him that last game. You know, my Homes

42:06

rolls out of the pocket, he's look in one direction,

42:08

one direction only, and that's Kelsey had a free

42:10

himself from the defender, but easily was

42:12

able to accomplish that and they connected

42:14

for six. So if you're gonna play

42:16

a Kelsey anytime touchdown prop? What

42:19

I would suggest doing because the juice is gonna

42:21

be so externally extraordinarily

42:23

high right now. Yeah,

42:26

I forget that noise. I wouldn't do that. So the

42:28

way I would play it is O g p it. I

42:30

would take Kelsey on that anytime

42:32

t D and I'm all about core late, synergized,

42:35

bring it all together. If he's gonna score

42:37

t D, the odds of Kansas

42:40

City winning this game straight up increase.

42:42

So why not just take Ksey on the money line,

42:45

which right now we know is that plus one oh

42:47

five and they have that minus one. I'm

42:49

no mathematician, but that sounds mighty

42:52

juicy. I was trying to get you some I

42:54

do love that. I might actually play that right now. Keep

42:56

going that. So,

42:59

as we're recording Tuesday, player props are

43:01

not out yet, But as we look at both quarterbacks,

43:04

what's a number you have in mind that you would

43:06

take the over on passing yards

43:08

for both for both quarterbacks, Yeah,

43:11

I mean Mahomes will probably be in like the

43:13

two seventy two eighty range would

43:16

be my guestimates on that. Honestly,

43:18

the one prop that I really anxious to

43:20

see our rushing guards or Patrick Mahomes

43:22

closed at nine and a half in the

43:25

a f C title game, and there

43:27

was a bit of a controversy at the end

43:29

of that game with how the statisticians

43:32

scored that final scramble that

43:34

he had. But I think he's gonna be running

43:36

little bit more. He's a guy that runs like he's got

43:39

to go number two every single time that I've see him

43:41

play. He's got the movie Scoots going on. But

43:43

I think, you know, with that ankle at

43:45

or near a percent by the time we get

43:47

to kick off. If the numbers in you know,

43:49

the low twenties or the high teens,

43:52

I think you'd take advantage against the Philadelphia

43:54

front. They gave up over twenty rush yards

43:57

per game of the quarterback position in the regular season.

43:59

So that that's what I'm looking at for him,

44:01

And then for Hurts, probably gonna be

44:03

anywhere between two sixty two two

44:05

seventy. I would estimate

44:08

in the past yards prop range

44:10

in his rushing yards gonna be close to fifty. I gonna

44:12

open around forty six and a half forty seven a

44:14

half on bet MGM.

44:16

And again that's another prop of the

44:19

rush yards, more of the pass yards where

44:21

I would stack my green back, so everything

44:23

one of these guys, or just do some alt

44:25

lines and do both of the rushi

44:28

guards propless on these guys on an O g

44:30

P. Take my homes down like fifteen, take

44:33

hurts down to maybe thirty five or

44:35

so, smash that if you get in at

44:37

plus one oh five plus one ten even

44:39

better, and then you retire with

44:41

Jerry again and that bohemian island

44:44

here in short order, I better build a podcast

44:46

studio and on the island there else it's

44:48

gonna be hard again. Before we let

44:50

you go, though, Brad, and I don't know if you mentioned Earlia, but

44:52

where where will you be for the actual

44:54

super Bowl? What is going to be your viewing experience?

44:58

And what is it like? Madness at

45:00

Cassaday Evans. So I'm gonna be on

45:02

Auto Radio Row and doing live

45:04

on the line shows from Arizona

45:07

starting this weekend, and I get the hell

45:09

out of Dodge before it gets too

45:11

crazy and too mad. Every single Friday,

45:13

it's my seven super Bowl being covered.

45:16

And that's the one thing I've I've learned.

45:18

I partied it really hard the first couple of years

45:21

don't remember a whole lot of what went on those first

45:23

couple of years. I decided I've grown

45:25

up now. My liver doesn't need to go

45:27

to war at all, and and down

45:30

there with the great Sonoran Desert. So i

45:32

gonna played even keeled and get

45:34

out of dodge like I said on Friday. Then

45:36

I'll, you know, probably make a Costco Runner three.

45:39

Load up on dips. You gotta have

45:41

a lot of dips to have a successful

45:43

super Bowl party. On My whole made guac

45:45

recipe is legendary in these

45:48

parts as well. So I'm gonna whip up a batch of

45:50

that. H pop, open a fine

45:52

bottle of Suavecito on Diehoe tequila,

45:55

sit back, relax, sip it, and dip

45:57

it until my heart's content. You

46:01

saw me, I want to be I would love to watch.

46:04

We'll be out there too, Brad. So I'm

46:06

sure I might have to run up to you on radio

46:08

Row and just be like, give me something, talk

46:10

me out of Hassan Reddick. Please don't let me do it.

46:12

You might be seeing me begging for help. Jerry,

46:15

here's what's gonna happen. I was half

46:17

joking about swack action. Whack

46:19

Action Mountain West play whatever college

46:22

basketball we got games. I'm going

46:24

to the Grand Canyon, New Mexico State

46:26

game, which is gonna be played

46:29

there in Phoenix. I think it like Tuesday or

46:31

Wednesday night. I'm gonna wager

46:33

on that fanciful whack contest.

46:36

Maybe you'll join me because it's well the best

46:39

venues in college basketball to see game live.

46:41

Say no more, I'm at the very least we'll bet

46:43

with you bet, but that sounds fantastic and

46:45

we can't forget. We also have we know, we have the Phoenix

46:47

Open coming that Sunday, which they need to put that

46:50

the weekend before the super Bowl, Like just

46:52

make give that its own weekend so we could just fire

46:54

off on a couple of final round winners

46:57

in golf. But it's gonna be a great week. No

46:59

live base in at all at the Phoenix Open. All

47:02

right, Brad, we appreciate you joining us. You can follow

47:05

Brad Evans on Twitter at Noisy Huevos

47:07

and watch him making picks every day on Live on

47:09

the Line. Thanks so much for being here, and we'll see

47:11

you in Phoenix. Yes, SIPs

47:14

and dips, that's the game playing guys,

47:25

all right, Olivia. I don't think. I don't think we're doing Entourage

47:27

this week. I think you've got a pretty busy life.

47:30

And I totally get you can't stay

47:32

fully watching episodes of Entourage all

47:34

the time. You're a mom. You have jobs. I totally

47:36

understand. So for real quick and before

47:38

we we get to Pete and talk about some

47:40

bets, this is just a big,

47:43

unleased shout out because I feel like this is

47:45

a big deal. Your husband,

47:47

Sam Decker of the London Lions. They

47:50

won the BBL Cup, another title for Sam.

47:52

He's taking home a lot of hardware because he also got the m

47:54

v P game high twenty

47:56

two points nine boards. Where

47:59

is the trophies going to stand of a place he likes

48:01

to put his stuff or is he kind of

48:03

like I'll put that in the Classic because I want to go win another one.

48:06

Oh. I like that dog mentality

48:08

and I think he's more on that side. The

48:10

first thing I did so I was working

48:13

and I was coming like off of a work

48:15

thing and I checked my phone. I'm

48:17

like, oh my god, they won. They won. It

48:19

was a big deal to mid season cups so

48:21

that the season's not done. But in Europe they

48:23

do that a lot, So it's a huge deal and this

48:26

team hasn't won it in however many years,

48:28

and they're really changing the whole culture

48:30

of British basketball, which is fantastic, and

48:33

that Sam one m v P. You know, I'm

48:35

so proud, and then I'm hit with like a wave

48:37

of guilt that I'm not there. And I

48:40

think a lot of people listening can feel that when

48:42

both parents work and it's tough, you

48:44

know, you got to make sacrifices. But the

48:46

strides that he's taken and

48:49

the different chapters of his basketball

48:51

career, I'm just so proud of

48:53

his fortitude, of his discipline.

48:56

He's so disciplined and hard

48:58

on himself and he's just

49:00

he's kind of a class act through and through, and I'm

49:02

just so proud of the way he handles himself. One

49:04

of the first things was I texted and I said, because

49:07

it's a it's like a golden basketball is the m v

49:09

P Trophy? It's really pretty. I

49:11

said, Uh, where are we going to put that? And

49:14

He's like, in my office, But let

49:16

me just say, because you can see my office every day

49:18

here, I've got pretty sweet memorabilia. Yeah,

49:21

what what comes down? What comes off? What

49:23

comes now? To

49:26

be fair, I work in my office. I do this podcast

49:28

from here. It's kind of like a studio. Sam's

49:31

office is in our basement. It's kind of tucked

49:33

in a corner, like no windows,

49:35

like by Jim's where I am too.

49:37

That's exactly why I'm coming. I'm

49:41

kind of like, man, it looked really nice in my

49:43

background, so let's see if I win that one,

49:46

my background gets a lot more airtime, so I

49:48

think it should be there. I think it should go in your

49:50

background and listen. Is it weird

49:52

that my that was my first Like I obviously saw

49:54

the news and I was reading a little

49:56

bit more about the game. My first thoughts were

49:58

like, where's he gonna put that opie? Because my

50:00

mind's like where would I put Where

50:03

would I put an m v P of anything? I have

50:05

my direct TV Beats Ball m v P

50:08

probably displayed on my bookshelf.

50:10

And I was the only one who tried to actually make

50:12

a catch in that game. So congrat

50:16

Sam, we know you put a lot of work in it

50:18

obviously shows so m v

50:20

P of this episode also, I think

50:22

and put maybe where you have that Wilson

50:24

n C A ball maybe we could just like that.

50:27

There's there's room. There's room for an m

50:29

v P trophy on that shelf. Yeah, no,

50:31

I love it, but you're really sweet to say that. And yeah,

50:34

still a lot of season left, but he's just he's

50:36

balling out, so we gotta keep him healthy.

50:38

I've got to get back to London so I can support him in

50:40

person, and there'll be a lot more basketball

50:42

to win. Go Sam,

50:55

all right, everyone, this is obviously one

50:57

of my favorite parts of the show. We'd been talking a lot about

50:59

game in today and we're gonna keep

51:01

that going. We're joined by Peter Andrew.

51:04

I don't know what to call you after last week.

51:06

We're just gonna call you Peter Andrew from

51:09

bed MGM after last week. We're not really going to

51:11

attach a label, just yeah, we're

51:13

gonna see how we kind of do. But that

51:16

was one of those rough weekends where the

51:19

the bets didn't really pan out. And your

51:21

team San Francisco forty nine

51:23

is you're all black today, so I feel you were in all

51:25

black, So I feel like it's a your mourning. Are

51:27

you mourning? I am mourning. It

51:29

is a sad day. I was with Olivia

51:31

for what three and a half hours on Sunday

51:34

recording the stream. It was it

51:37

was tough to stay composed after watching

51:39

a quarterback less team have to play against the

51:42

Philadelphia Eagles. So yeah, yeah,

51:44

as a fan, as a fourty niner fan, would you rather

51:47

have just like pretty stays healthy

51:49

and you play good game down

51:51

to the end and losing heartbreaking fashion or

51:54

I mean not that you'd rather, don't want to lose at all,

51:56

but or would you like it was over early? It

51:58

was over pretty much early. Were you rather

52:00

have gone down to the wire and you lose a heartbreaker?

52:02

Yeah? I definitely rather the down to the wire,

52:05

especially because I think we played so well on defense,

52:07

especially the first half. We had a

52:10

terrible incomplete call that killed

52:12

the vibe early. I think I don't

52:14

put blame on the league, A put blame in colle Shanahan for not

52:17

challenging that call. And then

52:20

what could have been You have every weapon in the world.

52:23

I absolutely think no bias that we

52:25

could have been should have beat that team, assaming

52:27

we have a healthy quarterback and not Josh Johnson for

52:29

half the game. We talked a little bit about that

52:31

Pete on the day of and then Jerry and

52:33

I did earlier. Is the Christian McCaffrey

52:35

factor of it all, because I

52:37

think there might have been something to be able to be done

52:40

there. Am I crazy now?

52:42

Not at all. It was weird what Shanahan did

52:44

not. I didn't really understand when he was trying to explain

52:46

it in the post game. You have McCaffrey,

52:49

who can do it, run a wildcat. They

52:51

say they have plays set up for him.

52:54

You have Juwan Jennings, who is their third wide

52:56

receiver, who is I believe a four

52:58

star recruit out of Tennessee. He came

53:00

in from high school being a quarterback, so

53:02

god it knows how to throw the ball. I appreciate

53:05

the fact that he doesn't have all the plays in the playbook,

53:07

but you have options there. Why are you playing

53:10

brock Purty with a torn U c L Now

53:12

you're finding out he couldn't throw the ball more than three or four

53:14

yards on the top off, I'd rather, you

53:17

know. A friend of mine said, like, they feel like they just surrendered

53:19

as the third quarter happened, and I agree they

53:21

could have done something different. They were kind

53:23

of hoping for a turnover, hoping for a pick six,

53:25

and you can't win like that. It's against

53:28

a really good Jalen Hurts and Philadelphios

53:30

team. I actually kind of think that if Christian

53:33

had been with the team all season that maybe they

53:35

could have installed more options

53:37

there that could have been trick plays before brock

53:39

Purtty got hurt. But then, you know, I

53:41

mean he just joined what a month ago, a

53:43

month and a half. Yeah, he played anyway

53:46

less than half the season. Yeah. I

53:48

think next year it's going to be

53:51

Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy G Brock

53:54

Purty all on the same team, just to avoid the

53:56

the potential quarterback loss. So we'll

53:59

be fine, don't worry. A lot of five quarterbacks Trader

54:01

to go. I feel like, and and this is just an

54:03

assumption, but you would think common sense

54:05

says one of the things like that worked against even

54:08

Johnson was pretty

54:11

needs the reps. I mean, all the course, all

54:13

started quarterbacks need the reps. But if it would have been like Jimmy

54:15

G, maybe you know, he doesn't need as

54:17

many reps as a rookie quarterback,

54:19

last pick of the draft, even though he's won however

54:22

many games in a row. So I just feel

54:24

like it's hard even to get Josh Johnson

54:26

up to speed when you want to make sure you got Brocked Purty

54:29

up to speed. But uh, I don't

54:31

know. It just was a bummer because I really thought that was

54:33

gonna be the more interesting game

54:35

of the two. And yeah, the Eagles

54:38

shattered all my bad. I I I totally

54:40

Earlier in the show, I had my typical

54:42

teaser that had just both games

54:44

being close games. And obviously

54:46

that was true on the Bengal side and not so

54:49

much on the nine. But either

54:51

way, great season, will be a fun

54:53

offseason. We're not going to talk about your beds

54:55

from last week, which is gonna gloss over that.

54:58

Uh. And I want to ask you because

55:00

I know you have some picks for us now, but when

55:02

is the sweet spot for you when

55:05

talking about Super Bowl bets and picks and props

55:08

and all that, when you've got so much downtime

55:10

and uh, how closely do you think that the

55:12

information is going to change these lines going

55:15

forward? Yeah, I think there's two

55:17

sweet spots. It's probably right as the lines

55:19

come out, and I think we're right in that sweet spot right now.

55:21

Aaron on a Tuesday, and then you're looking at

55:23

Saturday into Sunday as things start to take

55:26

more shape based on what's happening in the game. So

55:28

for me, I see a lot of opportunity

55:30

on things that are coming out. You know, I'll give you

55:33

one example. Eagles to win right now

55:35

are minus Jalen

55:37

Hurts is plus one ten to win m v P.

55:40

Why would you not. There's no way

55:42

on planet Earth that if the Eagles won the Super Bowl

55:44

that Jalen Hurts doesn't team MVP.

55:47

There's a one percent chance. Why would you

55:49

not take the value right now with plus one ten get

55:51

the plus money favorable odds. It's

55:53

effectively the same thing as as betting

55:55

Eagles money line, but you're getting thirty

55:57

cents better. So there's things like that, especially

55:59

as them any line starts to transition away, if the

56:01

money starts to go more towards the Eagles, you're

56:03

gonna lose a lot of that value. So to

56:05

me, easy one to take right off the bat,

56:08

and you can still kind of hedge it with something else on the other

56:10

side, if you want to, with the Chiefs, with Mahome's

56:12

bet or another m v P bet. So little things

56:15

like that start the week like this. Obviously

56:17

a lot takes shape in terms of injuries. Where Mahome's

56:20

at going into next Friday,

56:22

Saturday Sunday is the game's about to take place.

56:24

So I think when you talk start talk one game parlays

56:27

or really really take advantage of over yards or

56:29

under yards. I think that's where you have to do,

56:31

you know, spend a little bit of time and play the waiting game.

56:34

Well, Brad Evans was just on and was

56:36

telling us, you know, Chiefs that plus money on the money

56:38

line, I think it's plus one ten is he

56:41

thinks the best bet, and he thinks will certainly

56:43

change as the Chiefs get healthier. They

56:45

have two weeks to do. So I keep harping on this because

56:47

I think that's what a lot of my bets are going

56:49

to come down to. Do you like that

56:52

just to take right off the bat as well? Yeah,

56:55

So to be clear, the Eagles

56:57

one is if you love the Eagles here for obvious

56:59

reasons. I don't love the Eagles here, but I

57:02

think your people are over investing their

57:04

time and thinking that Mom is not gonna be healthy in two

57:06

weeks. He won't be. I think

57:08

he's gonna be way better situation

57:10

than he is right now. He's gonna have a lot of treatment. I

57:13

am taking for sure Chiefs earlier this week,

57:15

and then we'll see as the money goes and changes. I

57:17

might get lucky and be able to double down on it and take it

57:19

at a better price. But at least I know I can lock

57:21

it into plus money early this week. And

57:24

if you see a couple of my props too, I think we

57:26

all really leaning towards the Chiefs.

57:28

I look at a guy like Pacheco, who has become a big

57:31

institutional part of their offense. Is

57:33

over under right now it is fifty three and a half yards. I

57:35

think rushing attempts is ten and a half. I

57:37

love him to go smash both of those

57:39

overs. I think they really build the game

57:42

around him, and then around the play action, and then

57:45

you start opening up options, and

57:47

then you look at some of the any time touchdowns. There's

57:49

a couple that are a little bit chalky, like Kelsey,

57:51

who's seemingly just full stride right

57:53

now. Pacheco plus one eighty anytime. One

57:56

bet that goes against everything I'm saying here

57:58

is I think the Eagle have scored

58:00

the first touchdown in the game close to set

58:03

the time this season, So if you are going to take

58:05

something first touchdown, you should absolutely

58:07

look towards the Eagles. Jalen Hurts plus eight hundred.

58:09

I think it is great value right there. But that's kind of

58:11

the one Eagles lane I have right now. Everything

58:14

else is really dear towards the

58:16

lower totals of the Chiefs because of

58:18

the Mahomes injury and the impact that has

58:20

on all the problems. Do you get into any

58:23

coin flip, Gatorade

58:25

color, how long

58:27

the national anth is going to be? Or do you I

58:29

personally stick to football. I stick to

58:31

all the football stuff because I think that stuff

58:34

is kind of I don't know. I just you

58:36

are flipping coins, But there any of those that you

58:38

even superstitiously like to play.

58:41

Yeah, I mean, if you look from the sports

58:43

bedding perspective, a coin flip is fifty,

58:46

but the way we price things out, it's not fifty,

58:48

so you're actually using value on something. That's

58:51

so my advice is always stick away from those things.

58:54

Gatorade is a fun one. Sometimes we'll do one collectively

58:56

as a group and to say how everybody picked

58:58

a color. We as a sports book,

59:01

we can't offer the the

59:03

anthem because it's very subjective. You might hear

59:05

crazy that people do. I

59:08

think that's bananas, it's

59:10

crazy. And one might say two minutes twelve

59:12

seconds. The other might say too each twenty and then next thing, you

59:14

know that the over unders to seventeen. Like it's

59:17

too subjective for me. I'd rather stick to things

59:19

that I know that objectively that that's

59:21

what happened, that's what it should be. It's like on

59:24

w w E on

59:26

the outcome that every a lot of people know already

59:29

exactly, and especially when you have all this knowledge

59:31

of people that were around for the practice session,

59:34

for the anthem and all that. For sure.

59:36

I love the props though, yeah, that part does seem

59:39

sketchy. As much as I don't like those

59:41

kind of weird coin flip props, we

59:43

love the props at that MGM. And this year,

59:46

you guys are gonna find out firsthand, and we're gonna

59:48

have a bunch of our famous ambassadors, maybe

59:50

the two here on this call talk about some of them.

59:52

We have a hundred thousand dollar big

59:54

game essentially a prop sheet, so

59:57

any customer completely free to play. All you need

59:59

to do is be a verified customer. Bet M Jam starting

1:00:02

next week, everybody will be able to pick

1:00:04

the fifteen different props we have. It'll

1:00:06

be things like first touchdown score, over

1:00:08

and unders on player passing yards, receiving

1:00:10

yards. If you were the person who guesses

1:00:12

the most correctly, were the perfect amount,

1:00:14

whoever finishes at the top spot, hundred

1:00:17

thousand dollars in your pocket in

1:00:19

your bet MJAM wallet. It's a really cool

1:00:21

thing. It's completely free to play. It's one thing

1:00:23

that we doft picks, fifteen

1:00:26

picks, and I think we're gonna try to

1:00:28

get a couple of you guys to predict some as well, to

1:00:30

give maybe your advice on what you think

1:00:32

for a couple of them. But completely free to

1:00:34

play, so really, really exciting. I kind

1:00:37

of nervous thing. I don't want to give my picks

1:00:39

out because I want to win this competence. I want to win

1:00:41

this game, right.

1:00:45

I don't love when people go, wow, that's that's

1:00:47

incredible. I mean, what

1:00:50

do you think, what do you think someone to go fifteen for fifteen?

1:00:52

I'd be crazy, right, I think it's gonna I'd

1:00:54

say thirteen. Yeah.

1:00:57

And if in ties you just to tie the time

1:01:00

players split right, split pot situation

1:01:02

or now split pot. There is actually a

1:01:04

tiebreaker question. If the tiebreak brings

1:01:06

up being the same, then you'd split the pot.

1:01:08

But we're trying to give one person. I

1:01:12

don't like split pots. I want a definitive

1:01:15

winner. I don't like time. So

1:01:18

we're super excited. So we'll share all that next

1:01:20

week. And we're right in the swinging things

1:01:23

in Arizona for the big game. But that's

1:01:25

our little way of getting in the spirit start the week

1:01:27

next week. I love it. Well, next week

1:01:29

we'll get more into the nitty gritty Pete. We're

1:01:31

going to be in person. We're so excited to look out

1:01:34

for some content across all bet

1:01:36

MGM social channels. I guarantee

1:01:38

you you won't miss us. So not only across all

1:01:40

social media, but also YouTube. Guys, you've

1:01:43

got to be following the bet MGM Unleashed

1:01:45

YouTube page where we have every

1:01:47

episode, every interview, we have the best

1:01:50

moments, the shorts already clipped. Make

1:01:52

sure you're following us there and next week

1:01:55

in Phoenix, make sure you're following us all across

1:01:57

social media. Thanks guys, See then at

1:02:02

the many Pe

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