0:01

So it's only January. We've still got

0:03

a lot of time before Americans go

0:05

to the polls in November to decide

0:07

who will be our next president. But

0:10

after just two primaries, Republicans seem

0:12

to have made their choice. Former

0:14

president Donald Trump. And that's

0:17

because he's winning pretty

0:19

decisively and there just doesn't seem

0:21

to be a path for any

0:23

other candidate, i.e. Nikki Haley, who's

0:25

only one left in the race.

0:28

And you know, anything can happen. I

0:31

always have to say that. But it

0:33

looks like former president Donald Trump will

0:35

most likely get the GOP nomination. Now

0:39

attention is turning to the next

0:41

big mystery of this campaign season.

0:44

And that's who Trump is going to pick

0:46

to be his vice president. I'm

0:48

Aisha Roscoe and this is the Sunday Story.

0:52

Today we're turning to our colleagues on

0:54

NPR's Politics Podcast for a little insight.

0:58

Here we go. Hey

1:01

there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm

1:03

Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Sarah

1:05

McCammon. I cover the presidential campaign. And

1:08

I'm Mara Liasen, national political correspondent. And

1:10

today I'd like to think of the

1:12

podcast as the equivalent of if you

1:14

were sitting around and getting a beer

1:17

with me, Mara and Sarah, because today

1:19

we're talking Veepstakes. The presidential primary is

1:21

not over, but for most Republicans it

1:23

is. Donald Trump is the likely nominee

1:26

and he's already indicated that he knows

1:28

who his running mate will be. We

1:31

of course have no idea who it's going to

1:33

be here on the NPR Politics Podcast, but we

1:35

don't even know if he knows who it's going

1:37

to be. But we do know a lot about

1:39

what goes into this guessing game. So pour yourself

1:41

a coffee, take a sip of a beer or

1:43

your favorite non-alcoholic cocktail and let's get

1:45

into it. So Mara, what are

1:48

generally the calculations that a nominee puts

1:50

into deciding who their running mate should

1:52

be? Well historically the running mate was

1:54

seen as a person who could balance

1:57

the ticket, bring a constituency.

1:59

or a state to a ticket.

2:02

Sometimes candidates looked at it in a completely opposite

2:05

way. Remember Bill Clinton picked Al

2:07

Gore, another young centrist Democrat

2:09

from the middle of the country,

2:12

Arkansas and Tennessee. He

2:14

wanted to reinforce his brand as a

2:16

kind of new generation, new Democrat politician.

2:19

But most of the time, candidates

2:21

picked a VP to either make up for

2:24

some deficiency that they have or to reach

2:26

a constituency that they don't feel confident in

2:28

getting. Sarah, in 2016, Donald

2:30

Trump picked Indiana governor Mike Pence.

2:32

And at the time, it was

2:35

seen as making up for the deficiency

2:37

that he might have with the evangelical

2:39

base or with people that were concerned

2:41

about his socially conservative credentials. I

2:44

don't think that that part of the base

2:46

has those concerns about Donald Trump anymore. He

2:48

doesn't have to worry about base support. Iowa

2:50

exit polls would tell you that he does

2:52

not have to worry about that. So

2:54

in a in a 2024 general election, what

2:56

is Trump looking for? Well, you know, like

2:59

President Biden, Trump is facing concerns

3:01

about his age. They're both right

3:03

around 80 years old. And so

3:05

whoever their VPs are, we

3:07

know who President Biden is, but whoever

3:09

whoever Trump's pick is could very likely,

3:11

if Trump is elected, have to step

3:13

in in some capacity. So that's on

3:15

people's minds. So he might want someone

3:17

younger. Even a lot of Republican

3:19

voters express concerns about his temperament. They say they

3:22

kind of like it, but they also are concerned

3:24

about it sometimes. So he may be under pressure

3:26

to pick someone with a track record that suggests

3:29

more stability or moderation. But

3:32

that is, of course, is assuming he would

3:34

bend to that pressure, which I would not

3:36

assume, you know, to remedy someone's deficiencies. You

3:39

have to convince them that they that they

3:41

have those deficiencies. So I'm sure those conversations

3:43

with political advisors are interesting. He

3:45

is, of course, an older white male. Now, that's

3:47

not something Republicans are as inclined to be worried

3:49

about. But he does like to

3:52

claim that his policies are good for women,

3:54

good for people of color. And picking a

3:56

candidate based on those criteria might insulate him

3:58

from some of the criticism around. those

4:01

issues and also you know at least help him

4:03

make the argument to general election voters that he

4:05

cares about women or people of color. You

4:07

know it's interesting Sarah just said that in

4:09

Iowa the exit polls showed that he has

4:11

no problems with his base or evangelicals but

4:13

the New Hampshire exit polls showed that

4:16

he does have problems with independence

4:18

and moderates and he did

4:20

very poorly among those. He did

4:23

great among regular Republicans. So

4:25

the question I have is you know

4:28

Donald Trump often acts as if he believes

4:30

in the political version of the cable news

4:32

business model which means you don't have to

4:34

have a large audience or even an expanding

4:36

audience you just have to get the people

4:39

that are your audience to watch you 24-7.

4:41

In other words he always seemed

4:43

to value intensity and devotion

4:46

among his base trying to

4:48

get more voters and

4:50

if that's what he believes that it's

4:52

all about getting a really

4:55

enthusiastic group of supporters then maybe

4:57

he would go for somebody

4:59

that is just as mega as him. But

5:01

to your point Mara about New Hampshire I

5:03

agree that you know he won New Hampshire

5:05

which really set the tone that he's on

5:08

the march to the nomination but there was

5:10

a lot in New Hampshire that suggested big

5:12

red flags for a general electorate and the

5:14

question I also have with Trump is that

5:16

you know traditionally win the nomination and you

5:19

appeal to a broader part of the electorate

5:21

he doesn't seem like a candidate that is

5:23

particularly well positioned to do that. No

5:25

not even interested. And is he even

5:27

interested in picking a vice president that

5:30

might appeal I think specifically with like

5:32

suburban women or people that the

5:34

point that Nikki Haley has made in the primary race that

5:36

it's just chaos and that was the thing we heard a

5:39

lot about Trump in 2020 for people had

5:41

turned on they were tired of the chaos a

5:43

stabilizing force potentially on the ticket but whether you

5:45

can sell that to voters is a big question

5:47

mark. Right and also we do know that

5:49

over time the vice president I think has

5:51

has mattered less and less it's hard for

5:53

me to think of a vice president recently

5:56

who actually brought a state and

5:59

also Trump is so a dominating

6:01

character and he is

6:03

the definition now of the Republican Party

6:05

that I can't imagine that his vice

6:08

president would make a huge amount of

6:10

difference. On this question of appealing to

6:12

moderates what I keep thinking about is this conversation

6:14

I had with kind of a low-level Trump advisor

6:16

during the 2016 campaign cycle

6:19

who said you know most candidates

6:21

appeal to the middle and then

6:23

sort of bring in the fringes.

6:25

Trump appealed to the fringes and

6:27

brought in the middle and

6:29

so you know I think the question is is

6:32

he willing to try to appeal to the middle

6:34

with his vice presidential pick? Mara,

6:36

one of the things I think is going to be a

6:39

bind for Trump if he does go in that direction is

6:41

that he still maintains and as recently as

6:43

his victory speech in New Hampshire earlier this

6:46

week that the election was stolen. He falsely

6:48

claimed that he won millions more votes. He

6:50

still campaigns as if he were the legitimately

6:52

elected president of the United States. He was

6:54

not. But in order to appeal

6:56

to that middle that people are tired of

6:58

the chaos, people are tired of that part

7:00

of Trumpism, you'd almost have to pick

7:02

a vice president who could go out there and say Joe

7:05

Biden was the duly elected president of the United States

7:07

in 2020 and I don't see a world in

7:09

which Donald Trump wants to campaign with somebody who

7:11

would say that. No, I don't think so and

7:13

you also have to think about that narrows

7:16

the universe. Nikki Haley has said that she

7:18

accepts that Joe Biden was legitimately elected but

7:20

I think the way that a lot of

7:23

Republicans are navigating this is to sort of

7:26

yes sort of check the box and say yes they

7:28

accept the results of the 2020 election

7:30

but still to sort of cast doubt on on the

7:33

system or the process or to say you know something

7:35

I hear from both politicians and

7:37

a lot of voters is this idea that

7:39

well something was off and a sort of

7:41

vague idea that something was off even though

7:43

review after review we cannot say

7:45

enough has confirmed including reviews by

7:47

Republican election officials that the

7:50

results were valid and there was no significant

7:52

anomaly in the voting but I

7:54

think this idea that just there must be something

7:56

going wrong here somewhere is this vague

7:59

idea that Republican voters have, and I think

8:01

that politicians can get away with Republican politicians, can

8:03

get away with saying that to sort of speak

8:05

to that gut feeling that a lot of voters

8:07

have without outright denying the results

8:09

of the election. All right, let's take a quick

8:12

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we're back. And Sarah, let's talk about

9:38

some of the names that could likely be

9:40

on a Trump running mate list. I think

9:42

one of the places that nominees tend to

9:44

look to, at least historically, is

9:46

their field of rivals from the primary campaign.

9:48

So Who among there might

9:50

stand out on this list? Well, I Would

9:53

certainly look at the gentlemen on the stage

9:55

with Trump on primary night in New Hampshire.

9:57

We Saw two of his former rivals at

9:59

the vacation. Swamy and South Carolina Sen

10:01

Tim Scott as standing there with them.

10:03

They've endorsed him as has afford a

10:05

Governor Rhonda Santas. He was not there

10:07

that night. I'm end. They certainly seem

10:09

to once the job, especially if you

10:11

listen to Tim Scott and in the

10:13

way he interacted with. Trump. You must

10:15

really hate her. Mouth

10:19

at sir. It's a shame it's issue

10:21

of. I

10:23

just love you. Not a. Great

10:27

politician. Can. Sort of course was appointed

10:29

initially before he was elected Abide Nikki Haley

10:31

when there was a vacancy in the senate's.

10:33

it sir? Sounds like he wants the job

10:35

based on the way he he and Trump

10:37

were talking about Haley. Yeah, that was kind

10:39

of a little cringe because I feel like

10:41

he was trying a little too hard in

10:43

that moment. Is aware that he dealt. Tim

10:45

Scott is auditioning for vice President had seemed

10:47

pretty clear than I do New Hampshire. but

10:49

more at the does raise the question Nikki

10:51

Haley because look, she seems to fit the

10:53

bill of everything we just discussed. She appeals

10:55

more to independence to women and to the

10:57

center chosen. To Die That Joe Biden

10:59

was lawfully elected the present United States.

11:02

And she represents a wing and the

11:04

party that has soured on Donald Trump's.

11:06

But these. Two people don't seem to like each. Other very

11:08

much, they certainly don't seem to like

11:10

each other now. However, if you're going

11:13

to be on the ticket with Donald

11:15

Trump and he wins, that is about

11:17

one of the fastest route to to

11:19

or possibly becoming president because he cannot

11:21

serve a second term. So I think

11:23

any ambitious politician, especially in the Trump

11:25

Republican party's would find a way to

11:27

grovel org kiss the ring as as

11:29

as from sometimes as bend the knee.

11:31

ah and get on the ticket. Right

11:33

now there seems to. Be a lot of

11:36

animus. Or Trump even accused her of

11:38

giving a victory speech when. She lost

11:40

him. Who else has done that? Us?

11:42

But yeah, it's see it seems kind.

11:44

Of farfetched, although on paper and according

11:46

to all the old historical rules, she

11:49

would be the perfect vice presidential pick

11:51

Because she does bring him something. She

11:53

bring some something that he doesn't have

11:55

now which is strong support among independents,

11:58

moderate republicans. sorry been tracking the. The

12:00

campaign much. More closely. As

12:02

she given herself any wiggle room here or

12:04

has she carved out of place like I

12:06

think of former governor under santas just doesn't

12:08

seem like he's gonna be any any potential

12:11

vice presidential as for many many reasons but

12:13

has she had knowledge and says possibility to

12:15

see talk it up or down and anyway

12:17

it's it's not something she talks about I

12:19

think she's given herself a little with wiggle

12:21

room in the sense that she is going

12:23

after both Trump and Biden in the same

12:25

breath and in pretty much every campaigns be

12:27

to mean have whole pitch right now is

12:29

that she that could include better choice than

12:32

either Trump. Or Joe Biden. and also

12:34

that she could beat Joe Biden. So

12:36

she's really trying to sell herself to

12:38

moderate voters in the Republican party who

12:40

don't want Trump, and also to appeal

12:42

to people who may be uneasy about

12:44

Biden for whatever reason. So yeah, I

12:46

think she'd given herself room in the

12:48

sense that Jesse that have to trumpet

12:50

seats is not just attacking turned. She's

12:52

also said that she would ultimately support

12:55

him if he's the nominee, even if

12:57

he were convicted of a crime. So

12:59

she said that my bigger question: Psu

13:01

is if Trump? Whatever. Warm back up to

13:03

her because he clearly angry as of Mara

13:05

was just saying it. Trump recently said that

13:07

people who donate to Nikki Haley's campaign would

13:10

be permanently barred from Maddow World essentially and

13:12

Nikki Haley seems to be leaning into that.

13:14

Her campaign to tweeted out a picture of

13:16

a T shirt that says barred permanently and

13:18

says get years now so they're having fun

13:20

with that. Yeah, it's hard to like a

13:23

it's always hard to predict a thing Trump

13:25

does, but historically like the nominee has the

13:27

kind of like the person that's they're running

13:29

mate. It has to be a bit of

13:31

a gut check. That was at least part

13:33

of the rationale why. Hillary Clinton,

13:36

top Virginia Gov Tim Kaine. And

13:38

twenty sixteen. She said she really likes him

13:40

on a personal level. I think that was

13:42

true. Between Brock Obama and Joe Biden back

13:44

in Two Thousand and Eight ends up who

13:47

knows, right? Who knows how he feels about

13:49

her, as he could change his mind, although

13:51

he also mara. Tends. to make

13:53

decisions if he thinks it's politically beneficial for

13:55

him yes and you could make the argument

13:57

that putting nikki haley on the ticket is

14:00

politically benefit for him. She's a woman, she's

14:02

a person of color, she brings these disaffected

14:04

Republicans perhaps back into the fold. There are

14:06

a lot of reasons to pick her. She

14:09

would have to show him, of course, you know,

14:11

he does have these auditions. Remember Mitt Romney had

14:13

a particularly humiliating one. She'd

14:15

have to show him that she was ready to, as

14:18

he puts it, bend the knee and maybe, you know,

14:20

go back on a lot of the criticism she

14:22

made of him and be a

14:25

good deferential vice president. Speaking of

14:27

deferential, I also think, you know,

14:30

often vice presidents come from Capitol Hill and I

14:32

would say that if you were putting names out

14:34

there, a couple of names come to mind specifically.

14:37

Obviously, we referenced him Scott in the Senate but

14:39

in the House. Nancy Mace, the

14:41

Republican from South Carolina, is someone whose name

14:43

gets thrown out there. And

14:45

also Elise Stefanik, a Republican from New

14:47

York, a member of House party leadership

14:50

and someone who has very methodically and

14:52

very diligently worked to establish herself as

14:54

one of Trump's strongest allies on Capitol

14:56

Hill. I'm proud to be the first

14:59

member of Congress to have endorsed President

15:01

Trump for reelection, the first, and

15:03

I would be honored to serve in

15:06

a Trump administration in any capacity. Yeah,

15:08

Nikki Haley's not the only female Republican

15:10

that Trump has to choose from and

15:12

Stefanik seems to be campaigning for the

15:14

job pretty openly. Mara, one thing I

15:16

think is worth thinking about, Elise Stefanik,

15:18

in the context of vice president is

15:20

I do think that Republicans want to

15:23

put up a strong candidate for two

15:25

reasons. One, Donald Trump is a one

15:27

term president if he runs again. So

15:29

whoever he picks as vice president is

15:31

going to be seen as a likely 2028

15:33

nominee. And that person is going to be

15:35

going up against potentially a debate. We don't

15:37

know if there will be debates, but if

15:39

there is a debate against Vice President Kamala

15:41

Harris. And there is a real hunger among

15:43

Republicans to not just campaign against Joe Biden,

15:46

but to campaign against Kamala Harris as sort

15:48

of the de facto president. And I think

15:50

You can see the argument for putting up a

15:52

woman, someone who has a bit of an attack

15:54

dog reputation. I think Trump has called her a

15:56

killer, which is one of the finest compliments he

15:59

can pay a politician. And I think

16:01

the com a hearse factor should be noted

16:03

here To tumble her sector is huge. I'm

16:05

one of the things that Republicans have been

16:07

doing, and I think. You can expect

16:10

to hear them do it a lot

16:12

more about on a daily basis. Is

16:14

that because Joe Biden as eighty one,

16:16

because he's called himself a transitional figure,

16:19

that they will be saying Tama Harris

16:21

is the real nominee. the real candidate.

16:23

Because Biden will not serve out his

16:26

full term and she will become the

16:28

President, Therefore, sees the real nominee. And

16:30

this is exactly by the way how Nikki Haley

16:33

has been threading the needle on this needing

16:35

to be. Pro. Trump enough but

16:37

not to pro Trump and justifying

16:39

her support for him by saying

16:41

she doesn't want. Kamala

16:43

Harris as the President's a

16:46

Swamp nomination. Is a biden

16:48

when and I saw my hair as President.

16:50

To think we have to because this is

16:52

the Veepstakes and we have to leave ourselves

16:54

wiggle room if it's someone we don't mention

16:57

it all in this conversation. Oh I think

16:59

there is room in this political moment and

17:01

for Trump for sort of a wild card

17:03

pick in that the driving force of his

17:05

campaign is that you know he needs to

17:08

shake up Washington. that was needs to be

17:10

broken up, that he is the ultimate outside

17:12

that he's disruption to the norm and picking

17:14

a governor, a senator house member just feel

17:17

so. Typical politics as usual. I

17:19

personally am doubtful that Trump thinks that he

17:21

needs a shrink running mate I think the

17:23

truth think sees a strain nominee states and

17:25

eat out the ability to pick someone from

17:27

maybe the business world or someone from a

17:29

military background or semi we're not really thinking

17:32

about seems more possible in this political moments

17:34

than it has to me in past elections

17:36

were it always seems pretty clear though universe

17:38

of people that it was gonna be running

17:40

for me my said that category right. He's

17:42

he's younger, he's also person of color in

17:44

his background is from the business world and

17:46

he's He's also. Clearly. looking like

17:49

he wants to be close to trump he

17:51

has been a totally loyal opponents the whole

17:53

time but what's interesting is first of all

17:55

i doubt trump would pick anybody who was

17:57

a bigger celebrity than him or had the

17:59

potential to overshadow him. But remember, he

18:01

made a lot of picks just the way Sue was

18:03

describing. Tillerson, Mattis,

18:05

he picked people that he

18:08

thought from the business

18:10

world, military people, and they all didn't

18:12

work out so well. Danielle Pletka Well,

18:15

this is probably the first of many

18:17

Veepstakes conversations because historically, the nominee announces

18:19

their vice president right around the nominating

18:21

conventions in the summertime. But again, with

18:23

Trump, you never know. It could be

18:25

any day now. That is

18:27

it for us today. I'm Susan Davis.

18:29

I cover politics. I'm Sarah McCammon. I

18:31

cover the presidential campaign. Mara Eliason And

18:33

I'm Mara Eliason, national political correspondent. And

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differently. Learn more at quickbooks.com/5APY.

19:39

Banking services provided by Green Dot

19:41

Bank, member FDIC. Only funds and

19:43

envelopes earn APY. APY can change

19:46

at any time.