0:02

Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular

0:04

headlines. Heard on mainstream financial

0:06

media to bring you unscripted interviews

0:08

and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street,

0:11

right to

0:11

you on Mainstream. It's

0:16

going up there. It's November 15th.

0:20

I'm Frank Kerz, that's the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break down headlines

0:23

and

0:27

tell you what's really moving these markets. So

0:32

to start this podcast, I just have one

0:34

important thing to say. Rock

0:38

Chalk Jayhawks! Man,

0:41

I love college basketball. By

0:43

far my favorite sport. You guys know

0:45

I played basketball for most of my life. And I'm

0:47

getting back to it after my hip replacement, my

0:49

second one. I'm actually going to start playing. We'll

0:52

see how that

0:52

goes. I'm going to keep living. I

0:55

want to be conservative in my life. Man,

0:57

college basketball

0:57

is awesome. Kansas played

1:00

Kentucky last night. Started

1:02

9-45.

1:04

Nice night game. They

1:06

wound up winning the game. Probably because Kentucky

1:08

was missing three of their seven-footers. Which

1:11

are all coming back in a few weeks. Kentucky

1:13

look really

1:13

good. Lots of freshmen as usual.

1:16

Calipari. Great,

1:18

great team. Insane. Athletic

1:20

as hell. Made some mistakes at the end. But definitely a team to watch

1:23

for the tournament. Kansas ranked

1:25

number one to start the year most because

1:27

Hunter Dickinson transferred from Michigan to KU. And by the way, if you're

1:30

watching my video on YouTube, here's

1:32

my nice national championship bottle for Kansas

1:34

for KU. It's awesome. I actually went to that

1:37

game. In New Orleans. Watched them win

1:40

after being down by a lot. I

1:42

think it was like 14,

1:43

15 points going into half. Yes, I was nervous, but they won.

1:47

They're the best team in the country. Again, Hunter Dickinson is amazing. Left

1:50

Michigan to go to final year to Kansas,

1:52

which is kind of weird. You really don't like that. You see

1:54

it in baseball as well. And, you know, all

1:56

the play, especially midway through the season, they all just joined

1:58

other teams.

1:59

team and if you're doing really bad and football

2:02

we saw with Washington, you know Washington lost the game,

2:04

they get rid of everyone and then you have the Chiefs picking

2:06

up, you know Chase Young and stuff like that. It's

2:08

kind of

2:09

kind of crazy

2:11

but he wants more exposure and he got

2:13

it. He's got 27 points, got 21 rebounds,

2:15

first player in KU which has a story

2:17

history in 25 years to do that but

2:19

I just love college basketball simply because

2:22

they have these

2:22

great games at the beginning. They have these tournaments

2:25

like the Jimmy V classic, the Maui Invitational,

2:28

Phil Knight Invitational, Empire Classic and

2:30

they put up the best teams against each other right away. They

2:32

want to play these games because they want to see

2:34

where their team is at. You don't see

2:37

that in college football. The first four or five weeks are

2:39

usually horrible. I mean they get in a tiny bit

2:41

better. You saw how they played Notre Dame like

2:43

third game, you saw text play Alabama but

2:45

if you lose one game in college football

2:48

you could be done for the year depending on what your

2:50

schedule is. Maybe you know you

2:52

don't play as many games where college it's right

2:55

off the bat. Boom! Your place in Kentucky is Duke,

2:57

Michigan State. You see all these great games and

3:00

you know you just try out Tennessee is great this year. UConn

3:03

is great again after win National Championship. Michigan,

3:05

Purdue, Arizona. It's just it's really

3:07

great to see all these teams get together. It's a rather great

3:10

awesome games. Really cool competitive getting

3:12

your face. It's just awesome awesome sport

3:14

and looking forward to watching Kansas for the rest of the year

3:16

even though they should have lost that game last night.

3:19

That's like Kentucky playing bad the last three minutes they

3:21

actually should have lost that game but they have a great bench, great

3:23

team. They look really good. How

3:25

to start the podcast off with Kansas. Come on guys you know.

3:28

Now let's get to the bull markets. Since

3:30

you really don't need me in bull markets just buy anything

3:33

you gotta be fine but not really anything.

3:35

I think the average stock price even after the

3:37

rally in the past two days is still down. It was

3:40

down 6% I think as of last week so

3:44

you might think everything is going up

3:46

everything's going up right now especially past two days but

3:49

it's still been a difficult year for a lot of investors

3:51

unless you own the top five six stocks that

3:53

continue to go higher and higher those are five largest technology

3:56

stocks where Apple and Microsoft now count

3:58

for 15 16% of

4:00

the entire S&P 500. We all

4:03

hear about the 25% or 30% for the top 10, I think it's the top 5 or 6 of

4:05

them, including

4:09

Tesla, account for, and Nvidia account

4:11

for. What is it? 25% or 23% of

4:13

the entire index. So,

4:15

you know, it's really heavily weighted. But

4:18

right now, it's a bull market again. Buy

4:19

everything.

4:21

We're all okay. Nothing to see here. We

4:24

had the CPI come out on Tuesday. Should

4:26

inflation moderating? Better

4:28

number than expected. And we had a rip

4:31

your face off rally. I love when people say, rip

4:33

your face off. That's going to be the word that actually, that's

4:35

going to be the phrase of this podcast, rip your face

4:38

off, rip your face off rally. And

4:41

then what do we have today? The producer price index

4:43

came out. estimates

4:45

call for a gain of 0.1%. I

4:47

know it's a producer price index. Nobody really pays attention

4:49

unless you know you're really into the markets. That's

4:52

a wholesale prices, but it's a big deal

4:54

because it fell a

4:56

half a percent. When

4:58

estimates call for a gain of 0.1%. So

5:01

it turns out that's the biggest monthly drop in wholesale

5:03

price since early 2020. Huge.

5:07

So we have this push

5:12

lower in rates, which is good, right? They

5:14

fell sharply and that's good for equities,

5:16

which at least I think that's good for stocks,

5:19

I'm not sure what's good for equities and what's bad for equities

5:21

anymore. I should say, I don't know what's bad for equities anymore. Watch

5:24

a 10 year ago from 3.8% to start the year to 5% and stocks retire. If

5:30

we look at all the data that comes out, whatever

5:32

it is, it's always going to be good for equities. Higher

5:36

rates, low rates, markets go higher. Earnings

5:38

growth, no earnings growth. Stocks go

5:40

higher this year. Slower

5:42

CPI, slower PPI, which indicates an

5:45

economy that is slowing. That's great

5:47

for equities too. Wars, no wars,

5:50

great for stocks. The

5:52

hell you have Biden meeting President Xi if he punched him

5:54

in the face and said, hey, we're taking over Taiwan. That's going

5:56

to be great for stocks. Of

5:58

course, if Biden did that. If you punched anything,

6:01

I'm probably like watching a turtle move in slow motion.

6:03

Probably take 20 seconds to get there. I

6:05

mean, it's getting progressively worse, right? I mean, whenever

6:07

I see it on camera, it's sad to say, I mean, this is the

6:09

leader of our nation. Uh,

6:12

yeah, it's just, it's just painful. It's painful,

6:14

but unfortunately it looks like we're going to be stuck with Trump

6:17

or Biden, one of the others. So good luck

6:19

with that, especially if you're watching anything in

6:21

the media because, you know, we're going to hate each other forever.

6:25

Uh, can't be friends at all. So that should

6:27

be interesting. But don't lie to you, I'm looking

6:29

at these markets, uh, we're

6:31

coming off incredibly oversold conditions from

6:33

about a month ago. And we have

6:36

seasonality in our favorites. Seasonality is

6:38

serious. You can't just look at different figures and say,

6:40

okay, well interest rates are much higher this season or the

6:43

seasonality, what that means. And we talked about this

6:45

last week, right? Um, why

6:47

I'm bearish on the overall markets, but we're going to see a strong

6:50

rally into the end of the year. And we've been

6:52

saying that for the past couple of weeks.

6:54

Uh,

6:56

when you see this

6:58

seasonality and especially

7:01

this year when so many money

7:03

managers are underperforming, they're underperforming because

7:05

if you didn't have six or seven stocks, you're

7:08

significantly underperforming your benchmark and

7:10

you want to play catch up, which is called alpha. You need to

7:12

generate alpha and it's all about your benchmark.

7:14

It doesn't matter if you're down 20%, the mark's down 20% and

7:17

you're down 18%, you beat your benchmark. Especially

7:19

if you're up, you're going to get bonuses, you're going to keep your job. But if

7:21

you go two years, three years and you don't beat your benchmark,

7:23

you better look out because there's 20 people right behind you that take

7:25

your job. So, you know, they're fighting

7:27

for this. And also seasonality

7:29

is you're seeing tax loss selling. Going to get to

7:32

target later. You wonder why target went down to 100, 102. I

7:35

mean, even if you're looking at funds that cover retailers, especially

7:38

their competitors, look at where Walmart

7:40

is, look at where Costco is and how great those stocks

7:43

did where targets down tremendously. So what

7:45

are you going to do? Well, I'm going to sell target and take the tax losses.

7:47

And that's why you see a lot of names that got punished go down

7:49

even further towards

7:51

the end of the year. And

7:54

a lot of the names that have been doing well go a lot higher.

7:56

And we took the time of Wall Street Unplugged Premium

7:58

last week. This is on

8:01

Thursday and Daylight listed and

8:03

went over 25, 30 stocks to buy

8:05

into year's end. And

8:07

these are momentum names that we

8:09

said are likely to surge over the next few weeks. And

8:12

this is because portfolio managers are shifting their allocations.

8:15

They need to generate that alpha and with

8:17

that seasonality and still being a little

8:19

oversold at least before this week,

8:23

it made sense to get into a lot of these names that

8:25

are continuing to move higher and higher

8:27

and higher. And we really nailed that. I mean

8:29

if you paid attention, you probably made enough money in just the past two

8:31

trading days to pay the $10 a month for Wall Street

8:33

Unplugged Premium for the next five years. And

8:35

that's the point of that product. And look, if

8:37

you're new to Wall Street Unplugged or listening to me the first time,

8:39

you should be skeptical. Okay,

8:42

there's a lot of clowns out there selling crazy trading

8:44

services and all this garbage. Been doing this for

8:46

a long time. So while you're out there, if you want to try

8:48

it, you go to wsupremium.com.

8:51

I have an offer on there where you can subscribe to Wall

8:54

Street Unplugged Premium for just $1. That's

8:56

it. You can test it out. If you like it, cool.

8:59

It's gonna be $10 a month going forward. So

9:02

you get a service amount to how

9:04

much you pay to fill up your car in a week. If

9:06

you don't like it, you can cancel. That

9:08

offer for just $1, Wall Street Unplugged

9:10

Premium available at wsupremium.com.

9:15

And the service also includes Dollar Stock Club, that

9:17

portfolio. We provide a trading idea per week,

9:19

detailed analysis on it. But right now Dollar

9:22

Stock Club has 22 stocks in that portfolio.

9:24

That's also included in that membership, right? So we have Energy

9:26

Plays in there that are doing well.

9:29

Crypto, we're really nailed as well. Crypto is on fire.

9:31

It's a little past couple days, but really, really strong,

9:33

especially the past two months,

9:35

really. But we go anywhere with this

9:37

newsletter, right? It's just trading ideas every single

9:39

week. And it could be large caps, small caps. Like I said,

9:41

crypto, we're really big on uranium, which has been

9:44

on fire. And by the way, real

9:46

quick guys, I'm interviewing Amir Adnani,

9:48

right? He's CEO of founder

9:51

of Uranium Energy UEC. It's

9:53

sitting at a 52 week high. I interviewed

9:55

Amir, he's a very close friend, in January. And

9:57

I say very close friend, I've known him for longer than 10 years. Back

10:01

then he told us Iranian prices were about to double. He's

10:03

always been of course very high in

10:05

Iranian prices and he should be because the

10:08

industry was just ripe for prices to go higher. But

10:11

he said Iranian prices were about to double. I

10:13

don't think he said that often. He says, well,

10:16

prices are going to go higher but he said they're about to double. They'll

10:18

be trading at $31 a pound then. There's $74 a pound today by his call.

10:24

Amir is one of the smartest minds in the world when it comes

10:26

to this sector. He founded UEC

10:29

in 2005, travels across the world, relationships with presidents,

10:32

prime ministers, and even the

10:35

former Secretary of Energy, right? Spencer Abraham

10:37

is the chairman of UEC. So

10:39

the context that he has and just I talk

10:41

to him when he's on the road and just seeing him

10:43

work, it really

10:45

goes to the credibility

10:48

of a person like this who's been in an industry

10:50

that's been shit since before. Since

10:53

Fukushima. I mean you talk

10:55

about this drag and even though the last

10:57

four or five years, you've seen the

10:59

fundamentals change or it makes sense. It's just been this

11:01

whole thing. Well, clean energy and nobody likes

11:03

uranium, right? Nobody likes nuclear, right? Everyone's

11:06

like it's dangerous. And now you're seeing that

11:08

change a lot. You're seeing people saying, okay, when

11:11

it hits your pockets and even with corporations

11:13

when they realize they can't make money, you're seeing clean

11:16

energy stocks get annihilated now because they just can't make money.

11:19

Now you're seeing, well, we're sitting here with something

11:21

that's absolutely perfect. We have an

11:23

abundant supply. We have a massive amount of supply

11:25

in the US, massive, massive amounts. Guys,

11:27

I don't know if you know this, but oil

11:29

companies in the 70s, they used to

11:31

be the biggest producers of uranium before

11:34

they basically outlawed it. So they know what all

11:36

the uranium is. We could produce the hell out of it.

11:39

But we've always said, hey, you know what? Let's just

11:41

rely on Russia. Agustan,

11:43

let's go import it. And

11:48

you're seeing over the years where electricity,

11:50

for electricity generation, supply and demand and balance

11:52

was insane where they had to lock in these contracts.

11:55

And we've always wondered where prices

11:57

were going to go, right? How come they haven't gone higher?

12:00

The interview is going to be great. We'll cover

12:02

in details of the supply demand again for uranium, which suggests

12:04

prices are likely going much higher from here. This

12:06

isn't just like, hey, we're going to 75 in a quick

12:08

blip. I mean even at 75, they're depressed. I

12:12

mean I never thought we'd see 35, 40, 50 and they'd stay at

12:14

those levels. But now it makes sense where you're going to

12:16

see actually US companies and companies

12:18

right off start producing, actively producing.

12:22

Because this is a product that probably costs 55,

12:24

60 to produce, a little bit lower in some areas, but

12:26

on average, now it makes sense. Especially

12:29

if you lock it in, future contracts,

12:31

higher value where it makes sense that you could actually

12:33

start producing this, not just sitting on the supply.

12:36

I mean you want to buy gold when no one's

12:38

really producing gold because you're going to get in the ground for like $7 an ounce.

12:42

It takes a fortune to produce it,

12:44

unlike uranium. It's not as expensive. But

12:47

then once you do and prices go higher, now that's

12:49

worth $23 in a ground or

12:51

you get some of the big guys that come over and produce it, but you guys know

12:53

what I mean. So Amir, through this whole

12:56

terrible bear market, has been just

12:58

acquiring assets, acquiring assets for you to see, acquiring

13:01

assets, getting bigger exposure, improving

13:04

his relationships with industry leaders

13:06

all over the world, getting involved in politics. And just

13:09

seeing someone work so hard in the industry

13:11

that's been so crappy, it's just a testament to

13:14

his dedication.

13:16

But he's going to talk about these trends, including

13:19

what countries are ramping up capacity, and

13:21

more importantly, I'm going to ask

13:23

him what specifically changed about this market.

13:26

Because I mentioned, the past five years,

13:28

that supply, demand, and balance was

13:31

pretty much the same as

13:33

it is today. And it's – I

13:36

hear Rick Rule in my ear saying that the cure

13:38

for higher prices is higher prices. And

13:42

saying that, you know, uranium prices have

13:44

no place else to go but up. But what

13:46

has changed specifically this year,

13:48

when now you're seeing – I don't know if it's political

13:50

or whatever. Again, I didn't do the interview yet. I didn't do the interview.

13:53

But I'm curious to see what has changed

13:56

this year to make this spike happen, because I thought

13:58

this spike – a lot of people thought this spike would happen. It's happened

14:00

a year ago, two years ago, three years ago and it hasn't. So

14:03

we're going to cover a lot. It's

14:05

going to be a nice interview

14:07

and I'm going to send this to you next week, some interview

14:09

in a couple of days. And next

14:12

week we're going to be closed for Thanksgiving. Plus

14:14

I'm taking a much needed vacation with my family. I'm

14:16

going to go to the Dominican Republic. It's

14:18

been stressful with the house as you guys know. You guys

14:20

know everything about my life. It's so weird when I talk to subscribers or

14:23

Curzio One members who I talk to a lot, even

14:25

shareholders and stuff of our

14:27

token. They're

14:29

just like, oh, how's your house doing? I've never

14:31

talked to them before. You kind of just say

14:34

everything and everything just comes with a cough here. But

14:37

you guys know pretty much everything about my life. I just leave everything

14:39

out there and very open. So yeah,

14:42

stressful with the house. Kids just made their soccer

14:44

basketball team, so we're driving all over the planet and everything.

14:47

I explained that. It made fun of it on last week's podcast.

14:50

Just work and everything, right? So we're looking forward to just hanging out

14:52

with my family, relaxing for Thanksgiving. I'm

14:55

going to publish this interview on iTunes. Also

14:57

send a direct link to all the Curzio

14:59

Research members and podcast listeners. Definitely

15:01

a must listen to. We've been involved in Uranium

15:03

and Dollar Stock Club. We have lots of good plays in there. I've

15:06

heard of one of my favorite plays, Encore Energy, which is

15:09

also at a 52-week height, Surged. Uranium

15:11

is a place to be. It's not just like, hey, it's

15:13

cyclical. Oil is good. And then when other stocks

15:15

are good, then oil is not that good. And back and forth,

15:18

I mean this is something where you have the fundamentals behind it. You

15:20

have the momentum behind it.

15:22

And

15:23

I'm not going to say that the easy gains

15:25

have not already been made.

15:29

I mean we are probably in the second to third inning of this.

15:31

We have a long way to go before we see really

15:33

this sector develop and go forward.

15:36

So that interview is really, really cool. Definitely a must

15:38

listen to. You're going to see me do a lot more interviews.

15:41

We took a break from interviews just for a little while. You know,

15:43

kept it simple. But a lot of people I just want

15:45

to copy I'm going to reach out to. Just

15:49

have a lot of CEOs reaching out, a lot

15:52

of industry specialists that I think are going to help you tremendously.

15:55

I never have like financial planners on this show, right? That

15:57

doesn't make sense. I don't have – people

16:00

that aren't going to help you. I'm

16:04

not being selfish here. I think I know my audience but my audience is... I think

16:06

you guys are kind of like me. I want to be educated. I want

16:08

to hear a different opinion. I want to have an open dialogue. If

16:11

I disagree with you, I'm not going to be an asshole to you. Seeing

16:14

some of these people that want to have interviews, I

16:16

really think that they're

16:18

going to be really good. It's going to benefit you. It's

16:21

going to educate us all. I like

16:23

having interviews where people have a different opinion than me. I

16:25

think that's where you learn the most and be respectful about

16:27

it. But really, really cool

16:29

interviews coming up and starting to book a lot of them. So

16:32

expect those through December

16:34

and into next year. So I'm very excited about

16:36

those. But I am taking off next

16:38

week. So guys, for Thanksgiving

16:41

and that... A mere

16:44

interview I'm going to publish early next week so you guys

16:46

will listen to. Definitely must listen to. So

16:49

let's get back to the markets. I

16:52

will say when I look

16:54

at the markets here, in

16:57

the past four weeks, and I

16:59

think you got to get used to this, we've seen a market go

17:02

to incredibly oversold

17:04

to now overbought. And we highlight it like a lot of the sentiment

17:06

indicators, contrarian indicators that

17:09

was saying that the market should be coming down, should

17:11

be coming down, it came down. And then we really sold

17:13

off very quickly. You got to get used to these moves because

17:16

right now we're overbought. Not

17:19

at extreme, super extreme levels. I

17:21

think we still go higher into the end of the year. But we

17:25

are getting to overbought conditions now because

17:27

we've seen massive rallies. I mean 5% rally

17:30

in the Russell alone. When

17:33

have we seen the Russell outperform? It's

17:37

outperforming the NASDAQ. Nothing outperforms NASDAQ.

17:40

So it's outperforming the NASDAQ. Even

17:42

today when you look at stocks, we're up whatever,

17:45

I mean, it's down 25% as I'm doing this in mid-day. It's

17:48

outperforming 3-1 the Russell, small

17:50

caps. Why? Because they've been down significantly.

17:53

They're still down right now 25%

17:55

from their highs. The S&P 500

17:57

is down 5% from their all-time highs. sector

18:00

that's been annihilated.

18:04

Looking into 2024, I mean,

18:07

guys, let me put it to you this way. Okay,

18:09

because if you go into 2024, when you watch

18:12

in TV, I'll go over that in a second, everyone's like, just like, Hey,

18:14

the market's going higher. It's great. It's great. It's going higher

18:16

and higher and higher.

18:18

If we go back to March, 2022, this

18:20

is right when the Fed started raising rates. And I actually,

18:23

where do you think the markets will be today? And before

18:25

you answer that, I said, but hold up. Okay.

18:28

I told you. These are the conditions that

18:30

are going to happen. The Fed is about to raise rates from 0.25%

18:32

to 5.5%. The

18:35

highest rate in over two decades, the fastest

18:38

rate hiking cycle in the history of the Fed. I

18:41

told you that mortgage rates are more than double from 3.8% to 7.5%. That's

18:45

the highest rate since 2000. I told

18:47

you that inflation would surge to a new record and

18:49

even now still, still be twice

18:52

as high as our normal rate. Look

18:55

at the cost, 0.4%, right? Double Feds target.

18:58

And I told you over this time period

19:01

that we're going to see relatively no

19:03

growth in earnings or sales in the S&P 500 until today. Would

19:08

you say the S&P 500 would be higher or lower? Because

19:11

based on those conditions of UXB, and I was really

19:13

honest, I'd say the market has to come down at least 20%. We're

19:17

up 5% the S&P. 5% higher

19:20

than in March, 2022, when the

19:23

Fed started going crazy and

19:26

raising rates. So

19:28

think about that. What would happen if the Fed didn't raise rates? Would

19:30

it be at 7,000 on the S&P 500? I

19:32

mean, where would inflation be? It's crazy when you

19:34

think about it. What if we did nothing? Okay, inflation goes

19:37

higher. Where would the markets

19:39

be? Look at what we did. I mean, this

19:41

is significant. These are significant

19:43

moves. I mean, when you see no

19:45

interest rates, you look at credit

19:47

tightening, you're seeing the effect of interest rates

19:50

all around. People can tell you the economy is doing good. Just listen

19:52

to these calls. A lot of these companies are beating.

19:54

They're not seeing earnings growth year over year. A little

19:56

bit for the first time this year, they saw

19:58

it.

19:59

Some companies, most companies aren't. They've seen

20:02

sales decline year over year, but why their earnings

20:04

go a bit well, cost cutting and finding ways to

20:07

get rid of employees and things like that and tighten

20:09

up where margins are a little bit higher,

20:15

but man, it's crazy out

20:17

there because

20:20

I know right now, if you're watching CNBC or Fox

20:22

Business News or whatever you watch

20:24

on Bloomberg, I'm not picking on these guys, I watch all those shows and I've

20:26

been on all these shows. It's like a circle

20:29

jerk of analysts talking about how freaking

20:31

bullish they are, how the market's back,

20:34

trillions are going to start flowing back into equities from

20:36

bonds, you got to get back in it, I told you, this is

20:38

it, this is the bull market, we're going higher and higher

20:40

and higher. If you're

20:42

watching TV, that's what they're saying. Believe me, I'm watching it, it's

20:44

my job to watch this stuff. That's the status

20:46

quo, that's what I'm looking to

20:49

discredit because if I can, on the positive

20:51

or the negative, I'm going to be able to make

20:53

money on stocks and

20:55

give you guys great ideas. If the market's priced against

20:58

something, then I think they should be pricing in the right

21:00

way, I'm going to say, hey, this is what we should do. And

21:04

you do that by understanding, that's like the consensus

21:07

estimates. If you think they're going to come in light, you should be shorting

21:09

a stock. If you think, hey, these analysts are

21:12

conservative, you should be buying the stock, meaning earnings are going to

21:14

go a lot higher. Look at Target, blow out the numbers.

21:17

Earnings were conservative. If you think

21:19

that was going to happen, look at targets up 18% today. We'll

21:21

cover that in a second. So

21:24

just remember, the guys that you're watching on TV

21:27

right now, don't make fun of

21:29

me with the circle jerk, you guys know what I mean. The

21:31

guys you're watching on TV right now, just remember 30

21:34

days ago when stocks were getting crushed, these

21:36

are the same people telling you that

21:38

you should buy bonds, the market's dangerous, it's

21:40

headed lower.

21:42

The same people 30 days ago

21:45

just switched from everything is perfectly fine

21:48

to

21:50

back then where it's like, holy shit, you got to watch

21:53

out in one month. When really what has changed?

21:55

It's really just seasonality. This is trading.

21:59

And we live in this. this reaction every world, everyone

22:01

wants to play Monday morning quarterback.

22:04

Man, listen to Steve Leeson, said, if

22:06

I was a Fed, I would do this. And just list

22:08

the five or six different economists. You're the

22:10

Fed, I don't understand. They should do it. What don't you understand?

22:13

I mean, I've been critical of the Fed, Dale more

22:15

than me. But man, you got to give the Fed

22:17

its dues. I

22:19

mean, if you had said that the Fed's going to raise rates incredibly

22:22

the way they have, and they're going to be at this level, and

22:25

you're going to tell me it doesn't result in a market crash,

22:28

and we still have low unemployment. I

22:33

mean, what has the Fed done wrong? Don't

22:35

get me wrong. You say, well, the balances and

22:38

the debt levels and a lot of politicians

22:41

and stuff like that, again, there's millions of ways

22:43

you can criticize the Fed. But when I see economists go on and

22:45

say, this is what I would do, not one of them would

22:48

have raised rates to this level. I

22:50

mean, we were talking about, even now they're talking about, why there's

22:52

no way that they're raising anymore and they're pricing rate

22:54

cuts for later on. They're not going to be rate cuts, guys, unless

22:56

you see a market collapse, they're not cutting rates with 2%

22:59

of target. It's 4%. I

23:02

mean, they're not going to cut rates. It's crazy because the biggest

23:04

mistake the Fed ever made in the history

23:06

of that institution was

23:09

in the eighties. We know that. Massive

23:12

inflation. They thought that had a contain and they were wrong.

23:14

They can't make that mistake again. It doesn't make

23:16

sense for them to lower rates. If the economy

23:18

is doing the job by itself, just leave

23:21

it until you don't have to. Why lower rates? Why

23:23

take the chance when you're getting the result you want? You

23:26

could always lower rates whenever, but it just common

23:28

sense makes sense. And you're going to see Powell

23:31

come out and talk hawkish. That's his job.

23:33

He's going to come out and talk hawkish. He

23:37

doesn't want to say, hey, you know, everything's great. And we get the

23:39

rip your face off rally to go even further. That's

23:42

not his job. He's going to say, look, we'll get it data dependent

23:44

and we'll put the markets doing your job. You don't have to do anything

23:46

right now. Why even push that issue? Why even

23:48

there's, from a risk reward standpoint for the

23:50

Fed, one, it's a credibility issue because you say you're

23:53

going to wait till you get down to 2%. We're not even close. We're

23:56

not even close, guys. At 4%, we're still, you

23:59

know, I've explained this that if you take

24:01

out the last two years, 9% to 4% is great. It's amazing. At 4%

24:05

annual inflation, which we're on the core, CPI, for

24:07

inflation. By the way, we're a lot freaking higher than that. If you

24:09

really look at the data and some of the shit that was in the data,

24:12

and declines in oil,

24:15

heating oil, and so it's just, you know, it's

24:17

crazy. We're all paying higher prices, right? We're all paying high prices.

24:19

I didn't see the price of anything get lower, right? I'm not

24:21

going to Starbucks for the kids in the morning and seeing prices

24:23

go lower now. I'm not shopping

24:26

and seeing prices and going, holy shit, man, look how much? You're

24:28

going to win Chipotle and you're like, wow, wow, so much cheaper. Nobody

24:31

in the world is seeing that. Nobody in the world. Maybe in Japan,

24:34

that's it.

24:37

But at 4%, guys, I mean, it's still the highest

24:40

annual inflation that we've seen since 1991

24:42

if we take out the past two years. So the thing that the

24:44

Fed is actually going to stop cutting is crazy.

24:47

And they've been talking about cutting, just to let

24:49

you know. This was in October 2022.

24:54

We were supposed to cut maybe first quarter

24:56

in 2023, the second quarter, back half. We're

24:58

going to cut pricing in 80% chance

25:00

of cuts and 70% chance of cuts and

25:03

we didn't cut once in 2023. And

25:05

we're not going to cut in 2024 unless we

25:07

have a meaningful, meaningful

25:09

correction in the markets, unless

25:12

we get inflation below 2% and we stay

25:14

at 2% for maybe 2-3 months in a row, which

25:16

I don't see happening.

25:23

So again, being reactionary and looking at things, everything

25:25

is great. We've got to get back into the market. We don't need to be concerned.

25:27

It's one month. Nothing has really changed because

25:31

I'm going to leave you with this. Right

25:34

now, we're currently cheering news

25:37

that the economy is slowing. Think

25:40

about that for a minute. A

25:42

slowing economy is not good for equities. We

25:46

have interest rates are still exceptionally high.

25:49

Credit is tightening. We're

25:51

seeing a layoff announcement still. City groups laying

25:53

off their employees. Every day we see laying off employees.

25:56

That's not the sign of a strong economy. People

25:58

are like, the economy is strong. It's resilient.

25:59

It's not strong.

26:01

We're seeing earnings grow. These companies are smart. They have

26:03

a lot of fat to trim. They've done a great

26:05

job of cutting costs. It's a reason why you're not

26:07

seeing sales grow year over year, but yet earnings

26:09

are earnings have been growing year over year, but still

26:12

they've been relatively solid at the

26:14

same levels they wore 18 months ago earnings.

26:17

And think about that. No earnings

26:20

growth in 18 months and yet markets

26:22

are 5% higher when we're used

26:24

to them growing 12% over the past three, four

26:26

years

26:27

annually.

26:31

In fact, you look at the PPI announcement today,

26:34

great number, great by showing wholesale prices

26:36

are slowing much more than expected.

26:39

So when you look at that, you may be thinking, well wholesale prices,

26:41

right? These are wholesale prices, which results

26:44

in, you know, that means that we

26:46

kept prices the same or charge a little bit more.

26:49

It could mean increased margins for retailers.

26:51

That's not the case. That doesn't happen. Okay.

26:55

Throughout history, throughout history, lower

26:57

wholesale prices and operating

26:59

margins almost always move in tandem.

27:01

They go up the same, they go down the same, but

27:04

margins were a lot higher. Even

27:07

during COVID. But

27:09

now you let, especially since 2020,

27:12

it's almost like identical. You got a 2015, 2011, go back and see it.

27:17

Low wholesale prices is not a good thing. It shows

27:19

that the economy is slowing. It shows that margins are going to

27:21

compress. That's what happens when

27:23

that's what happens. So

27:27

with sharing news that indicates

27:31

growth is slowing, what we

27:33

saw surprising today from yesterday, because

27:35

it said, hey, the rally is continuing. It's great. Well, what

27:37

happened yesterday? 10 year, 10 years

27:39

come down tremendously. But this

27:42

is really surprising to me because today, despite

27:45

that PPI, which is really, really

27:48

slow, I mean that's a big,

27:50

big number, like minus a half

27:53

percent compared to you expecting 0.1% growth.

27:59

You have a decline of 0.5%.

27:59

a big number.

28:01

But today I'm telling you, not yesterday. Today

28:04

the big slowdown in PPI, it didn't result in

28:06

interest rates declining. They're actually going

28:08

higher. The opposite is happening. Why

28:11

is that? Because that's not a good sign. You would think, okay,

28:13

now we've got more confirmation. More

28:15

confirmation of a solo economy. So rates are going to come down even

28:18

further. Why are they going higher?

28:21

I would have liked to see them go lower. That's a sign, hey, this

28:23

is going to continue maybe through December.

28:25

I don't know. But now that they're going higher on

28:27

this number. Also,

28:32

as I just mentioned, inflation at 4%, it's nothing

28:35

to cheer about. You could cheer because, hey,

28:37

with 9% we're going lower. Again, double the

28:39

Fed's target. Double

28:42

the Fed's target. And

28:45

people are calling for cuts. We're not going to cut. And

28:47

believe it or not, it's been July since we saw the

28:49

last rate hike. It seems like it was just recently rate

28:52

hiked up since July. We've had the Fed

28:54

say, hey, we're not done. We're not done. They're going to

28:56

continue to say that as long as the market's doing,

28:59

chugging along, seeing inflation

29:02

come down. Everyone's like, maybe inflation is transitory.

29:04

I wouldn't say inflation is transitory. Meaning

29:07

that it's temporary. Because it hasn't been too... If

29:09

two years is your new definition of temporary

29:12

and transitory, then, okay, fine, it's transitory.

29:15

Either transitory meant a couple months. That's

29:17

what Powell thought before he

29:19

raised rates by the fastest

29:22

pace in history of the Fed. You

29:24

can't be more wrong than that. So I

29:28

don't think the Fed's cutting anytime soon.

29:30

I mean, it won't. It has too much to risk in the

29:32

credibility side. Plus, not

29:35

just credibility, what happens if inflation

29:37

really starts surging after this? It just doesn't

29:40

make sense. Especially,

29:43

again, when the market's doing its job for the Fed. So

29:47

if you look at this, this translation of what I'm saying,

29:49

and that's to be so macro and blow the hell out of you here,

29:54

the Fed is likely

29:57

to stop hiking rates. We said this a couple months ago. All

29:59

right, just leave them. But

30:02

power is going to continue to have the hawkish tone and

30:04

we're nowhere close to the Fed lowing rates, which means they're

30:06

going to stay higher for longer throughout 2024, which

30:09

is this constant drag, this massive

30:11

drag on the economy. It's going to continue.

30:13

The conditions still exist today as they did a month ago, but

30:16

we are seeing inflation come down but interest rates

30:18

are going to be relatively high. Should we be higher than

30:21

we were in March 2022 when we started

30:23

this stuff? I don't think so. So

30:26

for, you know, you to watch TV right now

30:28

and they're like, hey, the bull market's back. You don't need

30:30

bonds. Just get old. Well, I just said

30:32

all that when I say bonds, I'm saying that, you know, again, bond

30:34

prices and rates move inversely,

30:37

but people like getting those rates and higher.

30:39

So instead of being conservative

30:41

and putting it in parking that money, it might come

30:43

out and go into equities

30:46

again. I think that's crazy at this

30:48

level. Even

30:51

Goldman Sachs came out with their forecast today for 2024. I

30:53

don't know if you saw it. We have access to this. So

30:55

I like to share this stuff. We're expecting just 5% returns

30:58

over that 12-month period in 2024. So

31:01

I want you to think about that, 5% returns. And

31:04

I like to see similar gains just parking your money in

31:07

one-month treasuries or

31:09

an Apple savings account risk-free. I mean it's

31:12

over 4%. But

31:15

Goldman is expecting these paltry returns

31:17

despite it

31:20

being an election year. And

31:23

we look at past election years, we see stocks,

31:26

equities, 8, 9% gains. They're

31:29

saying, no, hold on. It's a lot

31:31

different from what I'm hearing on TV. Well, I've got to go all

31:34

in. Okay, you're only expecting 5% in the next 12

31:36

months. That's it? You mean

31:38

to tell me instead of going the ups and downs

31:41

and waking up at night and seeing everything go crazy and rates

31:43

and certain things could break and, you know, maybe

31:45

we see a global meltdown and

31:47

because higher rates are crushing a lot of countries. Maybe

31:50

we see more wars, right? Who knows what's going on?

31:53

Craziness. I could just instead of dealing with all that

31:55

bullshit, I could just take my portfolio

31:58

and throw it in something that's going to generate 4-5%. right

32:00

now risk-free and I don't have to worry about it. This

32:04

is what Goldman Sachs is saying right now. So

32:09

short-term stay the course but

32:12

longer term be careful what you wish for. And

32:14

slower growth again while helping

32:16

to low inflation is also

32:18

going to result in weaker profits for companies at a time

32:21

when analysts are projecting

32:23

the consensus estimate for next year's earnings they're

32:25

projecting to surge by 12%.

32:30

Good luck with that

32:32

especially since you've done the majority of

32:34

your cost-cutting. I don't know

32:36

where they're gonna see this demand come from maybe certain pockets

32:38

it's not all companies I'm not telling you to sell the markets I'm telling

32:40

you to leave the markets. I'm telling

32:43

you better be selective with what stocks you pick.

32:46

So tomorrow's Washington Post premium podcast Dale

32:48

and I are gonna break down 13S which

32:50

just came out every quarter that's

32:53

the report money managers yeah and

32:55

hedge funds they file every quarter show

32:57

which stocks they own and are adding

32:59

to and have sold. Again

33:02

it's a little it's data that's you

33:05

know happened three months ago some of these things they might not

33:07

be in but there's investors like Warren Buffett lots

33:09

of value investors investors that have you

33:11

know that are not these high-frequency

33:13

funds going in and out of stock that they'll accumulate

33:16

positions and continue to accumulate but

33:18

you get lots of ideas and they only

33:21

cover this every single quarter. We get great ideas

33:23

not telling you to buy what these guys own but

33:26

they may decide to buy something that could fall 20% over

33:28

the next month or 15% you know

33:31

these guys are gonna come in and buy more so it gives you an opportunity

33:34

just you know put some of these stocks on your watch list

33:36

and keep an eye on them. But

33:39

a lot of names a lot of stuff to go over some

33:41

things I'm not used to saying some things that are pretty obvious

33:43

but we're gonna break them down all the hedge funds the biggest

33:45

names all the guys you could think of it's not just

33:48

Buffett what you know about an Ackman there's a lot of big

33:50

big huge funds out there

33:52

that that report file posts value

33:55

act you know

33:58

multi-billion dollar funds on the management and it's

34:00

significant, really moves the needle. So we're going to cover

34:02

that tomorrow. Also, we're going to break down Targa in more detail,

34:04

which is blow out the numbers. It's

34:07

trading 17% higher today, reported earnings

34:09

of $2.10. Expectations were

34:11

for $1.47. That's

34:15

a 42% increase or

34:18

better than what the analysts were expecting. I

34:21

mean, it's an insane beat, so much so

34:23

that with the stock up 18% today, it's

34:26

cheaper today than it was yesterday before

34:28

it reported, even though it's up. That's

34:30

how crazy that beat was, and

34:33

Target killed it. I mean, they say they're going to claim

34:35

sales fell year over year, though. Sales

34:38

have fallen for the entire S&P 500 year over year. And

34:43

the S&P 500 is up 17% year to date, while Target

34:45

was down 25% heading

34:48

into the quarter. As of yesterday, it

34:51

held the past 12 months, guys. Listen to this. The

34:53

past 12 months, Apple saw its sales and earnings

34:56

decline. Actually, I'm lying. Earnings

34:58

went up one penny. Over the past 12 months.

35:00

I think it went from $6.13 since the... So

35:03

basically, no growth in earnings and it declined

35:05

sales. Yet the company increased its

35:08

market cap this year by

35:11

nearly $1 trillion. $1 trillion.

35:16

It's trading at like 29 times forward earnings.

35:20

The 50% premium to the market when

35:22

you're not growing sales and earnings? Tesla.

35:26

You own Tesla margins, falling like a rock. They're

35:28

lowering prices like crazy. Earnings

35:30

to protect decline 25% year over year. That

35:33

number was $6 a share. It's now down to $320.

35:37

I mean, it came down to $4 and now a

35:39

little bit over $4. Now it's like $325. So

35:42

now they're projecting earnings to decline

35:45

year over year by 25% and

35:47

that stock is up 90% this year.

35:51

So please... And

35:54

people giving Target shit about, hey,

35:56

their sales are down a little bit, which by

35:58

the way, beat analyst S.

35:59

But

36:01

they're down to low single digits year over year where

36:03

most companies are the same except most companies went up

36:05

in value. But Target

36:07

was a clean beat. Earnings, margins,

36:10

inventory levels down, guidance was solid. And

36:13

Target is put in its bottom. You're not going to see

36:15

that stock ever hit the low 100s again.

36:18

Ever.

36:20

And even now when you look at Target where it

36:22

is, the stock is turning

36:25

at 15 times right now after this move, 15

36:27

times forward earnings. It's a 50% discount

36:29

to Walmart and Costco who are on deck

36:31

to report earnings. And for the first time, Walmart reports

36:33

to market Costco a couple weeks.

36:37

But what do we see in the last three quarters? We've

36:42

seen Target earnings were shit and then all of

36:44

a sudden you had Walmart and Costco beat them and they're like,

36:46

wow, they're killing it. Now Walmart,

36:49

you better produce great results. You're trading at 30 times

36:51

forward earnings. Costco's trading like at 37, 40 times

36:54

forward earnings. Those guys better

36:57

report good numbers because

37:00

that's an indication that not only is Target back, they're

37:02

starting to take market share, that market share that they lost,

37:04

especially during COVID. But

37:08

really happy to see this move, especially with Curzio Research

37:10

Advisory members. Target's one of our positions in that portfolio.

37:13

Really great quarter. We're going to break it down a lot further than

37:15

that. And finally, Dan and I are also going to talk about how Target's

37:18

rip your face off rally. I love that term. Rip

37:21

your face off rally relates to small caps

37:24

because the Russell 2000 surged 5% on Tuesday, 5%.

37:29

And today, significantly outperformed the S&P and NASDAQ

37:31

I mentioned earlier. By

37:33

three to one margin, I think it's up like 1.3% as I'm

37:36

doing this where everything else is around a half

37:38

percent, 0.4%. You

37:42

know, I've been pounding the table on small caps over

37:44

the past few months and why? And

37:47

a market that I'm like, why? You have to be careful how your

37:49

industry is economy. It could slow, which

37:51

usually results in bad news in small caps. The reason

37:53

why I've been pounding the table, not the whole Russell 2000, is

37:58

this sector, I've never seen

38:00

a better opportunity by some of these

38:03

names where they've gotten annihilated, especially

38:06

into this month because

38:08

of the tax law selling. So you're looking at

38:10

a 5% and then a 1%, say 1.5% rally, and the Russell

38:12

is still

38:15

down 25% from its highs.

38:18

That's how bad it's been. Why? Because everyone

38:20

and all the money managers are

38:22

just, have rushed into the biggest names.

38:25

Well, now, if you're trying to catch up, what

38:28

are you doing right now? At the end of the year, you want

38:30

to play catch up? Buy some of those small caps that

38:32

are down tremendously. We've seen small caps, names

38:34

that are down 60%, 70%, 80% from their highs that

38:38

reported good quarters. Insiders are buying.

38:41

They're announced buybacks. They're growing

38:43

earnings. I've been doing

38:45

this for 30 years and that's the part

38:48

of the market that I love small caps because you really have to dig

38:50

deep. I mean, everybody comes to these large caps, you

38:52

know so much about them. Small caps,

38:55

that's where you see the biggest disconnects. I haven't seen disconnects

38:57

like this in decades. So much so, you guys

38:59

know I put over $200,000 into one stock, another $50,000 into it. I

39:03

mean, I'm going very heavily into some

39:06

of these names that I really, really like. And

39:09

those one members to certain services know

39:11

what stocks they are. I'm not going to give those away for free.

39:14

But those are very big positions for me. Those

39:16

are positions that I normally don't do because

39:19

this is an opportunity not to generate one X or two X

39:21

returns. These things, some

39:23

of these names are down so much. I

39:25

mean, five X returns are possible. Three X

39:28

returns are possible. Some of these names could

39:30

triple and still be 20, 30% below their, what is

39:32

it? 2021 highs.

39:38

It's just a sector that's been forgotten, annihilated.

39:41

It's trading at a discount.

39:44

We haven't seen a discount like this to large caps in 20

39:46

to 25 years. That's

39:50

going to change in 2024. There's a lot

39:52

of these names that are going to do very, very well because

39:54

they priced in recession, they're down tremendously and

39:57

these names, you're not going to see those gains where, Oh, I can

39:59

hold. long-term you've seen a lot of these names. I mean the

40:01

name I put in $200,000 is already up 100%. I've

40:04

seen a lot of names up 30-40%. These

40:06

things are going to pop.

40:08

Like Target up 18-20%. That's why we're gonna

40:10

talk about more how Target relates to these

40:12

small caps because when everyone hates you and

40:15

they're so under-owned, once

40:18

that shifts and that sentiment shifts,

40:20

that's what you're gonna see. You don't need these things to report

40:23

great numbers. You need them to go from terrible to

40:25

less than terrible and you're gonna see 30-40-50%

40:27

gains from these levels. We're gonna

40:29

break down some of those stocks, give you some names, some plays

40:31

like we did last week, get all Wall Street Unplugged

40:34

Premium, we'll go over all of that. So

40:36

look forward to that podcast tomorrow and

40:39

that's it for me. The great

40:41

stuff on deck, can we do Wall Street Unplugged Premium? If

40:44

you're not a premium member, then I will see you

40:47

again in two weeks and go on

40:49

a vacation with Thanksgiving with my family, giving

40:51

my staff the week off to do the same. And

40:54

by the way, I say the same thing every single year

40:57

at this time. Eat lots of turkey, stuffing,

40:59

if you're a vegetarian, eat freaking salad

41:01

or whatever you eat. Have some alcohol,

41:05

watch football, laugh a lot, enjoy

41:07

the family. Be thankful for everything

41:09

you have. We live in a world where I feel

41:12

like the younger generation,

41:14

I feel like we're the only country

41:17

that our schools teach our younger generation

41:20

to not like our country sometimes.

41:22

And that's really sick because that's not taught any

41:25

place or any country. And

41:28

you have to be thankful and you're thankful just

41:31

when you look what's going on around the world. You

41:33

have someone in Ukraine

41:35

that you haven't spoken to because of the war. I

41:39

mean looking at the conflict between Palestine

41:42

and Israel. It's

41:45

just, it's... You're

41:47

looking around what's going on and the things

41:49

that you have and to hang out with your family and

41:51

stuff like that and be able to watch football and laugh

41:54

and stuff like that. Guys, don't ever, ever, ever, ever

41:56

take that for granted. Seriously, don't. I'm not bullshitting.

41:58

Don't take that for granted. It's really,

42:01

really important and have fun for Thanksgiving.

42:03

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.

42:06

Love you guys. Thanks so much

42:09

for listening and go Eagles. Take care.

42:12

Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio

42:14

Research, one of the most respected financial

42:17

media companies in the industry. The

42:19

information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the

42:21

opinion of its host and guest. You

42:23

should not make your investment decisions solely on this

42:25

broadcast. Your money

42:28

and your responsibility.

42:38

Love this episode of Wall Street Unplugged?

42:40

I think you'll really love Wall Street

42:42

Unplugged Premium. The Wall Street Unplugged Premium

42:45

is my members-only podcast where I dive even

42:47

deeper into this week's events. I'll

42:50

do even more than tell you what's moving

42:52

in this market. Specifically, what

42:55

moves you can make today. This is

42:57

going to be about trading. Put

43:00

big money in your pocket right away due to the

43:02

inconsistencies I see daily in the market.

43:05

I'm talking about specific investment ideas I'm recommending

43:07

and tracking each week that I believe will be impacted

43:09

directly by everything I just

43:11

talked about today.

43:13

Plus, you're

43:14

going to get the chance to go even further

43:16

down the rabbit hole with me and my

43:19

co-hosts, Daniel Creech, as

43:21

we discuss which of these week's trends

43:24

could turn into massive windfalls. The

43:27

big trends that we see in the horizon, also the news

43:29

we're picking up from our network of insiders,

43:31

which has gotten bigger and bigger thanks to you and

43:33

so many people listening to this podcast

43:36

in over 100 countries. You'll

43:38

get a chance to talk to me directly in my special Ask Me

43:40

Anything Q&A.