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To people who has. Unique

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Are not and not all of them think that things

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We. Want to talk about issues that

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issues that is admitting everyone in Twenty

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Twenty Four, whether it's in the United

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States or elsewhere, Is. The

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Cost of living, The role of government,

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3:45

Inflation is going to be whether or not we

3:47

are going to be able to meet our needs

3:50

commensurate with what the price of things that we

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need. Is and what, Income

3:54

we are earning. And.

3:57

The. Other questions of like what exactly

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is this. We call economy

4:01

doing. Is one of the

4:03

great debates of our time, particularly given that most

4:05

people. Have a different personal sensibility

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about what's going on economically them with

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the data is telling us or he.

4:12

Many. People in many parts of the world

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think things are quite bad economically. And

4:16

the economic data that we use as

4:19

a gauge is telling us that things

4:21

are quite good economically. And. There

4:23

is a huge gap there that

4:25

remains unanswered and hard to explain.

4:28

So. We're going to talk to someone today who

4:30

has. Unique. Insight into

4:33

his question. Emma.

4:36

Tell. Us are in the talked to today. Such

4:38

a hammer and talk to our and

4:40

trigger She's an economist and also senior

4:42

fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Writing has

4:44

appeared lotta different places that right now

4:47

she is a calmness for Bloomberg and

4:49

also writes for a City Journal. She's

4:51

also the author of a book called

4:53

and Economists walks into a Brothel If

4:55

she's the cofounder of the Life Cycle

4:57

Finance Partners which is at risk advisory

5:00

firm sorry ready to go with Lum

5:02

Als and for her with them yes.

5:04

We are. Awesome!

5:06

Show your what a pleasure to be having this conversation

5:08

with. Your least I assume it's going to be a

5:10

pleasure to have the conversation there were about our with

5:12

you. You. Are one of the

5:15

more eclectic, unique, unusual voices talking

5:17

about all things economic. For your

5:19

calls for Bloomberg and City Journal,

5:21

you also one of the unequivocally

5:24

best or titles of the past.

5:26

Decade. Plus that I can. Remember of

5:29

an economist walks into a brothel,

5:31

which is just such a delicious

5:33

title for a book. He did

5:35

a piece recently. On.

5:37

The. Negative economic long term consequences of

5:40

kids living with their parents. Movie expand on

5:42

that one cause I thought that is a

5:44

perfect interest in of all things Allison. Ah

5:47

thank you suspend words as do the column

5:49

to Bloomberg about finance set talk and are

5:51

not surprised by a couple things about it.

5:53

One that I'm not on tic tacs, I

5:56

don't consume it often, but I was shocked

5:58

the financial advice is not terrorists. He

6:00

was actually a pretty standard personal finance advice

6:02

and in fact, Maybe more digestible. easier to

6:04

understand the normal check that your for one

6:06

second you're not on to talk because you're

6:09

against tic toc or you just down to

6:11

talk because you're not on to. Talk to

6:13

the ball. I mean, I am against it, but

6:15

I'm probably not against it. is I'm not on

6:17

it if I liked it and. Enjoyed it

6:19

as like twitter. I'd probably be like,

6:21

you know, It's not so bad but I'm

6:23

not on anyway so the to be against

6:26

it that's how I feel. I'm on to

6:28

talk and I love it. I've for personal

6:30

finance for every the he says yeah if

6:32

I was loving I'd probably rationalize everything but

6:34

because I'm not unlike is evil and is

6:36

corrupting the of but at least with Tic

6:38

tac steered me towards with as algorithms was

6:40

actually pretty reasonable. Blaze losing a shock me

6:42

about it was because talking about living at

6:44

home as a viable financial strategy or what

6:47

you are living at home this is I

6:49

do things this is a normal thing and

6:51

I'd look again and. I knew there's a

6:53

the upshot people living at home during the pandemic

6:55

but it's been trending up for a while and

6:57

it struck me it it was a tick tock

6:59

that this is a social norm now not everyone's

7:01

living at home but assault weird or a source

7:03

of shame to as opposed to what I was

7:05

in my twenties. this would have been only something

7:08

that happens at your life fall apart, you lost

7:10

your job, he got a divorce and you definitely

7:12

have had a a lot of issues on the

7:14

dating market but now assists lifestyle. financial choice that

7:16

seems totally acceptable and some ways I think about

7:18

on like I would have saved a lot of

7:20

money I guess if I didn't pay. All that

7:22

money for this terrible partners I had in

7:25

my twenties. But if you at home then

7:27

why don't you look they're perceived money. I

7:29

would have thought that was the same way.

7:31

I guess people live at home in Europe

7:33

for a long time or people blood omen

7:35

to they sort of their own families for

7:37

most of time. But it does seem to

7:40

me that striking out in your own is

7:42

an important part of adultery. Making rent know

7:44

big motivator to brush your career forward and

7:46

just general independence and risk taking. It seems

7:48

like something's being lost their or it's a

7:50

sign of people not really fully. Individuated are

7:52

being willing to take risk as at

7:54

my university board meeting and a new

7:56

theory was floated that I have No,

7:58

this is true, Because I don't like

8:01

to generalize too much as every generation has

8:03

a lot of different viewpoints and preferences that

8:05

universities get a lot of flak from investing

8:07

and really fancy dorm rooms. Because we were

8:10

in college, we lived not squalor. But it

8:12

wasn't exactly nice you at several people in a

8:14

room. easier to phone. In a bathroom and rooms

8:16

read that? Nice. They're like cinder block and kind

8:18

of dark. But. Now is like people

8:20

to live in really nice dorms or then

8:23

the apartments they can afford. You probably aren't

8:25

that great so living at home at also

8:27

be compelling because he can still live in

8:29

a nice place and the idea that you

8:31

live in a terrible partly with lots are

8:33

in it's just not a place you would

8:35

pay for. Independence is just feels not worth

8:37

it ends. There does seem like an important

8:39

cultural shift in terms of ambition and receiving,

8:41

although I guess we'll see how it plays

8:43

out what percentage of millennials his arm and

8:45

a so that it was rising but is

8:48

it as significant portion of the population. So

8:50

for men is a bow twenty

8:52

percent and burrow women is a

8:54

bow thirteen. Twelve and a half

8:56

percent is have a higher than

8:58

I was expecting mean how messy?

9:00

Think that's related to the general

9:02

story that we hear about owning

9:04

particularly Millennials and Jen see that

9:06

the of for an economic costs

9:08

of becoming a dollar the United

9:10

States are so high. That. It's

9:12

just not possible. Meaning the rents are

9:15

so high health so high College is

9:17

so high and it's just like Canada

9:19

Albatross around those two generations next. Well,

9:21

there's some validity to I mean first

9:23

of all, the health care costs I

9:25

don't buy because I mean you can

9:28

be. On your parents healthcare well in your twenties.

9:30

Now true, and even this student loan stuff.

9:32

I don't really buy that either. and in

9:34

this true that he will. They have much

9:36

more student loan debt than before, but I

9:39

mean, if you have a student loan that's

9:41

correlated with higher earnings so I'm not sure

9:43

that's the reason why. Also, and in obliteration

9:45

of these income based repayment plan ensure that

9:48

you can also pay rent and pay a

9:50

student loans. So I'm not entirely says it

9:52

is. It is true rents are higher and

9:54

significantly higher than they used to be, but

9:56

you have options You other than living with

9:59

your parents, you. Live with roommates are like

10:01

not live in a nice. Apartment or a move

10:03

in it's cheaper area a. Think. It's just

10:05

different norm that it wouldn't been an option for

10:07

me when I was young. Despite whenever financial situation

10:09

I was in. I just would have found a

10:11

way to live on my own because I just

10:14

would have been embarrassed. And now people are. And

10:16

again, maybe there's some advantages to that. I'm indecisive.

10:18

Be close to your parents when they do have

10:20

families. Maybe they'll be close your parents. There has

10:22

to be more involved. There's all sorts of evidence

10:24

that's a nice thing, but I think they're also

10:27

definitely. Gonna be downsized. This kind of

10:29

sideways and to another piece you wrote

10:31

recently about taking on the issue of

10:33

wages have been rising. Some was in

10:35

step with inflation going on which is

10:37

one of the push back for people

10:40

who are say hey, the economy's better

10:42

than people feel. Heroines focus on headline

10:44

inflation numbers. They don't focus as much

10:46

on the degree to which their wages

10:48

have gone up. An easterner the peace

10:50

saying it makes total sense of people

10:53

would simultaneously benefit from rising wages and

10:55

be upset about rising inflation. Some. Of

10:57

you expand a little. Been on that. He

10:59

are so I this is I

11:01

guess or what a financial economists

11:03

had called disconnect between macro and

11:05

finance a whole central premise of

11:07

financial markets. And how acid surprise

11:09

is that people are for or

11:12

don't like risk a whiskey stream

11:14

of income. All else being

11:16

equal is not as desirable as

11:18

usher stream. Of income and you will pay more

11:20

for that sir stream of income and we just sort of.

11:22

This is that of under her. It's. All financial

11:24

theory. So if you think about what it's

11:26

like when you're in a high inflation or

11:29

volatile inflation environment, Or. You just have

11:31

a big bump of inflation you don't know up

11:33

prices are going to be effectively. That turns your

11:35

income into a much. Risk your income. Though

11:37

point of income is what you can buy with it. So.

11:40

Every financial transaction or it sort of consumer

11:42

transaction you're having has a level of risk

11:44

in it. So even if you had a

11:46

real wage increase in risk adjusted terms is

11:49

what we would say it could still feel

11:51

like a decrease is. you know how all

11:53

this uncertainty like you to think the last

11:55

couple years eggs were like seven dollars and

11:57

they were three dollars in the two dollars

11:59

and is. No see as the said

12:01

a lot of volatility and sort of

12:03

consumer goods particularly around groceries. I also

12:05

wrote about how well grocery prices having

12:08

coming down quite a bit. And.

12:10

Are now like at a red blood

12:12

have fleet decent level deflation. Because.

12:14

The dining out is still high. A high

12:17

badly? Sure, it's still like five percent. And

12:19

and in. Is the new really

12:21

sooner happened the last couple decades as dining out

12:24

became a very said a big part of people's

12:26

lives of all income levels at a Good

12:28

Now accounts like fifty percent of food spending a

12:30

least going into the pandemic. So.

12:32

I mean this is also something as important

12:35

people's quality of life and things like that

12:37

are still very expensive. So I think it's

12:39

not surprising that you can have a real

12:41

wage increase that keeps and lamp inflation. but

12:43

if you're it exposed to more risk and

12:45

uncertainty, you're still gonna feel worse off. Not.

12:48

To mention that the things that matter to

12:50

your quality of life are still really expensive.

12:52

Always, you're going to make people unhappy and

12:54

I think that's understandable. Oh, it's remarkable how

12:57

fast sense yes to eating out. not as

12:59

a luxury item, but as an expected part

13:01

of everyday life happened because I am and

13:03

when I was growing up, we never ate

13:05

out. I mean, it was extremely rare. Yeah,

13:07

any thoughts on that, How quick that was?

13:10

Yeah, I mean I there. There's others. the

13:12

series like The Rise of Fast Casual is

13:14

one. and just as a said, like all

13:16

of this Liberation of sort of. Cheaper

13:18

restaurants, And you know,

13:20

maybe that wasn't good Because you know

13:23

we definitely. Got fatter and you know it's

13:25

good that already to home probably healthier. But.

13:28

You know I. I think we can deny that people find

13:30

it convenient and they like eating. Out I opened this

13:32

column or as if a Bloomberg and much

13:34

you know they indulged some taxi cab recording

13:36

which I he but I couldn't help myself

13:38

is a cannibal what city I was in.

13:41

Fenugreek. Driver: Who is this

13:43

Like Young? you know? I mean my wife and I's

13:45

always been very like secret Us that we have the

13:47

state. Eight once a week where we got like burger in a

13:49

beer. I've nothing fancy. I'm not trying

13:51

to invoke Pile Bass or David Brooks

13:53

about like ridiculous still had at a.

13:56

Or at are really isn't. This is just like

13:58

a normal guy. Who. You know

14:00

would go to help or burger in a beer with his

14:02

wife once a week in. This is very important to them

14:04

as is very. Like and their quality of life. And.

14:06

He's like it was forty dollars. now is eighty

14:09

and they still do it. but it's like kind

14:11

of the big financial strain. And.

14:13

His his address or inflation is still going up

14:15

so. You. Know before and in couple decades

14:17

ago maybe they would only do a date like

14:19

once every six months. The doing it once a week

14:21

has become like a thing for them and it's important

14:24

to them And now is feel. That a rich

14:26

or definitely bigger financial strain. So.

14:28

I don't think it's shocking that he would still be

14:30

upset about inflation, even if you've been told all the

14:32

time. Well, In. Over prices have gone

14:35

up like why are you complaining I've

14:37

spoken a lot over the years audiences

14:39

and tried to give some sense of

14:41

you can simultaneously be Shoes were discontent.

14:44

With. Your economic system in the

14:46

presence. And recognized

14:48

how dramatically. At

14:50

least in the material terms, things have improved

14:52

over whatever the past hundred years level and

14:54

the past one. It. Like that

14:57

that present tense discontent. With.

14:59

What rewards and or the lack

15:01

of them are. And

15:04

recognize change. Everyday work on this

15:06

or of people day work on

15:08

this or people cognitively able. collectively.

15:11

Are individually to step back and go? Oh

15:13

right on. Now eating out once a week.

15:15

I used to eat out every six months.

15:18

But. My once a week of more expensive than a was.

15:20

Two years ago but I'm still doing

15:22

a more than I was twenty years

15:24

ago. Like are people susceptible to and

15:26

a good way? that kind of toggling

15:28

between the bigger picture trend and the

15:30

immediacy think so. I haven't done any

15:32

rigorous work on it so I can't

15:34

like site any research or as as

15:37

the that reddit but. Ah,

15:39

think people willing if irregardless research

15:41

where the criteria for making Profound

15:43

and Conan the same as on

15:45

podcasts and television. There.

15:47

Be a lot of. Dead. Their time.

15:49

Yeah, so I'm I'm just gonna make

15:51

stuff up anecdotally. I'll see people do

15:54

that. awareness. Of what things were like twenty years

15:56

ago. I give anything you hear people

15:58

all the time talking about how much worse

16:00

things are as is the eighties were like

16:02

some like wonderful time like people don't remember

16:05

what the ease were like. I mean I

16:07

wasn't very old them but. I don't

16:09

remember them being back re I mean he did

16:11

not have any giggled air conditioning. And

16:13

you know we did have like

16:16

fools a you know it is

16:18

a curse were that safe. You

16:34

still gotta remember to prefer your

16:36

safety belt yourselves. Could learn a

16:38

lot from a dummy for your

16:41

safety belts. I mean it it was

16:43

better than of the safety is so like we are

16:45

happy because we like progress. So this is a lot

16:47

with a retirement as people had this like golden era

16:49

of retirement in their head. Were. Allegedly

16:51

everyone had this like wonderful rich defined

16:53

benefit plan, but I bet that never

16:55

happened Like people sort of sort of

16:57

romanticize the past and don't really realize

17:00

like things weren't not every any. I

17:02

think it's hard to argue that quality

17:04

of life now is worse than it

17:06

was in the eighties for I seem

17:08

to read a team articles. Claiming.

17:10

That things are worse and every way when

17:12

they seem to be better to be in

17:14

every way and any maybe there's a reason

17:16

for that needy. you know there's something evolutionary

17:18

reason to have humans always be. Striving.

17:21

For more. I mean, as

17:23

there's one thing that's been remarkable about

17:25

humankind's, and particularly since the Industrial Revolution,

17:27

Is. The sort of dramatic increases and

17:30

quality of life that has unfolded. Even.

17:32

In our lifetime and maybe that comes from

17:34

this constant feeling of not feel like things

17:36

are good. Nothing they should be better. I

17:39

mean I I think about forget. Asking

17:41

people to be a comprehensive about what the

17:43

data was like in eighties people are and

17:45

comprehensive with a bad as like. Now now

17:48

see how he said. people I care about

17:50

data is there. I find it difficult. For.

17:52

A lot of things to like. really get a clear picture

17:55

what's going. On yeah it is. and maybe

17:57

maybe we're meant to be unsatisfied and that's

17:59

healthy. can. That pushes us or more to

18:01

the greatest. And ten that wouldn't

18:03

be good. I mean it's It's like the D

18:05

Growth Earth the you know they're just like we've

18:07

had enough growth. We. Don't need to grow

18:09

more A find that more destructive and they

18:12

sort of toxic. Then. The while

18:14

you know things. Should be better than they

18:16

are people. Are the on that the

18:18

grocer question? One there somewhere

18:20

moralistic aspect of growth as destroy

18:23

is destroying the planet, material and

18:25

climate illogically and therefore. There.

18:28

Should be d Growth because it's growth

18:30

has been harmful or it is beginning

18:32

to consume. The. Very resource that we

18:34

need to continue growing a do as at on

18:36

that is. It is a kind of of. Relevant

18:39

one for the next ten to

18:41

twenty years that in large swaths

18:43

of the world right Japan, Korea,

18:45

China of Germany, England Population the

18:47

strike and we were in of

18:49

aging population than that of declining

18:51

population Should there be economic growth.

18:54

For. Declining aging population other systemically are

18:56

normal emitting fewer people presumably consume less

18:58

than. This is a totally separate question

19:00

to the do you are others who

19:03

are same? There should not be growth

19:05

because it's bad, Morally because we're destroying

19:07

the planet. Or. Because it's

19:09

leading us into a consumer culture that

19:11

removing us from the spiritual can activity

19:14

or though larger issues of life. I'm

19:16

just asking the question of in a

19:18

system where there's fewer people with fewer

19:21

material needs, why should there be growth?

19:23

I mean we still won a improving

19:25

it like improving life, improving prosperity and

19:27

am in until the degraders if. We

19:30

wanna that the definition. Of productivity.

19:32

Is. Using our existing resources more efficiently

19:34

and we wanna set of healthy environment Growth

19:37

is and for and could become so much

19:39

more important if you have an aging. Society.

19:41

Because society is will get were if

19:44

we don't have productivity. Increases like productivity

19:46

increases can make up for a smaller

19:48

population. You can still a positive gdp

19:50

growth. Is. He become more productive.

19:52

And. We're going to neither if we have

19:55

fewer people to do stuff as is it are living.

19:57

Standards will start to really decrease if

19:59

we don't. Find a way to sort of

20:01

continue to grow in we have fewer people. It's

20:03

only good for the environment is good for our

20:05

quality. Of life. I mean especially as we're all getting

20:07

old. I mean, innovations gonna be in poor and. We're.

20:10

Gonna needs that of different ways of technology to help

20:12

take care of us to and. Hopefully.

20:14

Live even longer. And. Sort of

20:16

live events that have higher quality. Think of

20:18

like what how old's your grandparents seems like

20:20

in their seventies vs people their seventies now

20:23

but it is true and a lot away

20:25

as improving our quality of life improving. Part

20:27

of Mississippi, economic growth is our best shot. To

20:29

me Fab. On. Facts: as as a

20:32

massive ted talk turned right now that

20:34

talks about how slowly Millennials are aging

20:36

compared to their forebears. So I like

20:38

to say that it's just like words

20:40

getting healthier. Blaze you say we're living

20:42

longer lives. And of course it does

20:45

bring issues as you're bringing up the on how. Are we

20:47

going to pay for everybody? But I.

20:49

Wanted. To. Talk about like

20:51

illuminate a show mod. I have see it.

20:53

I wasn't old enough to see my advice

20:55

eclipse of It. A

20:57

fee or other with forty seven. She.

21:00

Looks so oh yeah there's a massive that

21:02

you're going around on sept often as there

21:04

right now where someone brings up the cast

21:06

of two years there were supposed to be

21:08

like thirty years old and they look like

21:10

someone even imagine Fisa years old now. Yeah,

21:13

I've been easy like or as was

21:15

I'm James Bond villain was it's like

21:17

looked like he was about seventy five

21:19

and they're like is forty two. I

21:21

mean like of with weatherspoon like fifty

21:23

and she looks great. Everybody

21:33

I'm Skyscrapers and Emery saliva through the

21:36

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22:52

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22:58

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23:01

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23:03

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those that you may think you know wealth

23:25

and is particularly adept ever leading them to

23:27

current events. Sit on this out, listen to

23:29

my history, can beat up your Paul Sex

23:31

on all platforms. The

23:38

House. I want the as you in particular

23:40

about Social Security because it's definitely in

23:42

the news right now. With a presidential

23:44

election coming up. There seems to be

23:46

this fear that it's about to combust,

23:48

but she had it. In. One of

23:50

your retirement. Mets and a call know you are

23:52

not and an hour was actually south. Towards

23:55

the good news about Social Security. Or.

23:57

I don't think it's going anywhere. I

24:00

mean, first of all, worst case scenario, we just

24:02

sort of. Let. Like don't do

24:04

anything that would be a twenty two across

24:06

the board. Benefit cause for everyone, which wouldn't

24:08

be bad. I don't think we should do that at

24:11

all that as. A lot better. Than.

24:14

So security like going bus to not

24:16

getting anything. And I don't

24:18

think l a half and I feel like when you

24:20

look at pensions. Sickly. State pensions they

24:22

somehow always get paid in a we might

24:24

like to fall on bond holders will certainly

24:27

cut services to younger people that pensions though

24:29

he somehow get paid his. Older

24:31

people have a powerful and. Know and

24:33

like see them get their pensions cut so I think we'll find

24:35

a way. The question is are we going to find a

24:37

good way to do it? And are we gonna. Do.

24:40

It in a way that like most efficient like

24:42

as the said they. Are we gonna spend

24:44

more than we need you to fix it? And I

24:46

think that's a question and I are not her and

24:48

at all by that. Political. Debates on

24:50

it now I feel a the conversations that a terrible.

24:53

But. I am optimistic that people.

24:55

Get their money is just gonna be

24:57

more expensive. And that messy ends are

25:00

unpleasant. The that cincy. So. That are

25:02

two main things going on. One is and we

25:04

talked about this would be doing our podcast and

25:06

I figured you refer to on this. Whether

25:08

you call the vibe session and the disconnect

25:10

between. A How people feel

25:12

the same we call the economy is doing

25:15

and what our data says the economy's doing.

25:17

I said there's a huge. To.

25:19

Divide their but there's also a covert

25:22

some a scrambled a lot of macro

25:24

economic assumptions about spending about what the

25:26

effects will be. You know

25:28

they're stored. Completely. Unresolved I

25:30

imagine will continue to be unresolved

25:33

debate about was there. A

25:35

tipping point of all the spending that

25:37

was.and. Twenty Twenty And Twenty Twenty One.

25:39

And in Detroit to. Was.

25:42

The massive amount of spending and twenty

25:44

twenty not inflationary but the spending of

25:46

of the use inflation reduction out which

25:48

wasn't very about inflation at all it

25:50

was about climate change. That. Was

25:52

too much. Was. The

25:55

spike in inflation? Actually transitory except the

25:57

problem using the were trying to tourists.

26:00

No. One ever defined exactly how long transitory as

26:02

I'm in. Life. As transitory, right?

26:04

everything is transitory. Some. It's. The.

26:06

Matter what, your. Your. Your time frame

26:09

is. So. In a

26:11

in a completely like big picture

26:13

way. Given. That governments that

26:15

more money and twenty twenty into twenty two

26:17

than had been spent certainly in the entirety

26:19

of whatever we call the new deal? Some

26:21

more more keynesian spending than ever Before that

26:23

a flurry lifted people out of poverty. It

26:26

had an inflationary effect, but maybe the of

26:28

I share fight was just as a result

26:30

of like a lot of money before people

26:32

could spend it on what do you make

26:34

of all this? Did it? Did it show

26:36

the government's could spend more money they're spending

26:38

and we should be worrying so much about

26:40

spending. Did it proves that governments spend too

26:42

much Or traits of ice and. I I don't

26:45

know I was. Is there? Is there ever going to be

26:47

any consensus of others? I think

26:49

there is a consensus about at least for

26:51

like credible people. Who. Know. Order

26:54

for it's it's. Complicated because inflation?

26:57

That a lot of father's. It

27:00

was. To. Some degree that kobe disruptions

27:02

and you know issues with the supply

27:04

chain that got resolved and taking the

27:06

hobby on and putting it back online.

27:08

And I think that. It was transitory

27:10

her read this. Guy. That I

27:12

think there was also a big piece of

27:14

inflation that was from government spending and inches

27:16

And Berman says as a two or three

27:19

percentage points of the eight percent inflation that

27:21

we had. Was. Due to government.

27:23

Spending so it out there. There are a lot

27:25

of different things going on at once. And

27:27

I see like honestly like a

27:29

monk. Like. A lot of economists

27:32

consensus about that. I mean, you have. You.

27:34

Know Olivier Blanchard who pandemic was a we

27:36

the spend. It's great being like you know

27:38

maybe we can and I think the spending

27:40

when a little out a control. This is

27:42

an easy. Democrats and Republicans Larry Summers. You

27:45

know it. Definitely was concerned about. This

27:47

I think a lot of economist do think it's

27:49

and I am among them was justified to do

27:51

a lot of spending. And twenty twenty I mean.

27:54

We. We shut down the economy and like

27:56

of unemployment was really high. And.

27:59

Ill eat. You do. To do something. And

28:01

financial markets where where we're freezing ends. I

28:03

even amount of to a fan but I

28:06

understand why that was done then. The.

28:08

Question is is: why are we still doing this And

28:10

Twenty Twenty One? Little on Twenty Twenty Two. And

28:12

particularly as a com is taking off while. we

28:15

were more fuel on out fire. So.

28:18

I think it gets confusing because

28:20

it's you. Can't just say inflation

28:22

was. All the government's fault it wasn't. An

28:25

easy he can't say. Inflation

28:27

of as completely transitory because it was.

28:30

It. It was a lot of different things going on

28:32

and I think what you have to do is sort of

28:34

separate them out. I think in general. People.

28:36

Get up to wake up. In a couple years

28:38

that we sort of the last ten years. So.

28:41

Lived in this world where there were no economic

28:43

trade off. And I think that's

28:45

what happens when you have effectively as your

28:47

rate environment is you don't he for rescue,

28:50

don't pay for capital. So. You

28:52

end up in a world where people think there's just no

28:54

trade off that you can spend as much as you want

28:56

and you don't have to pay for. That.

28:58

You know you should be able

29:00

to get upside without risk of

29:02

downsides. And. I think this is

29:04

became for pervasive and a lot of things.

29:06

It didn't last though I don't. Think we're

29:08

going back to zero rate environment. I see a

29:10

lot of consensus around that to be doubtful that that's

29:12

gonna happen. And if that's the

29:14

case then we do start having trade off than we

29:17

do see that. You. Know if you do

29:19

run up dead you know it does have an

29:21

impact on the economy is interest rates go up

29:23

and i can be contraction or or even if

29:25

you do wanna take you know have you know

29:27

higher wages and sort of take risk or have

29:29

higher as it returns you are going to have

29:31

to face downside risk. So. I

29:33

think people are. The vibe became

29:35

this. I sort of. So.

29:37

The idea that you know we can

29:39

do all these things and the there

29:41

was a free lunch everywhere. My my

29:43

colleague at Bloomberg just wrote a great

29:45

column I love that was called like

29:47

say it loud as a problem of

29:49

Neoliberal Usa How they this is the

29:51

non neoliberalism. The Statism is this idea

29:53

that a weekend just. Had. This

29:55

relaunch like the government can direct

29:58

resources. To. Into. The

30:00

it it lights and will have more growth. And

30:02

no downside risks to that. I said we

30:04

can stand without inflation or raising interest rates.

30:07

You can take risks and you will have

30:09

any downsides Any a new. I like Neoliberalism

30:11

he argues is always about acknowledging that there

30:13

were straight off and you know with we

30:15

have to sort of. The. Long run

30:17

be a little bit more prudent thoughtful that our

30:19

policies I think that era is coming to an

30:22

end. Not right now. we're still sort of living

30:24

in it. For. I think we definitely

30:26

see elements. That you know currently the high rate

30:28

environment that isn't going away suggest the best I can,

30:30

the sick or on forever. Thousand and One or

30:33

either tease out another piece of the economic

30:35

puzzle for me to. you're talking about how

30:37

inflation honey fathers and he can he to

30:39

tease out what caused what. Something. And

30:41

I have not been able to see you're out in

30:43

the posts coded environment and I'm not by any. Means

30:45

economics expert so it's might be

30:47

very obvious. Question is. All.

30:49

These are papers are coming out now that

30:52

wage growth sir skyrocketed between two thousand and

30:54

nineteen. and Twenty Twenty three, you know, is

30:56

used to be pretty stagnant outside. Ten Twelve

30:58

percent. What? Caused that.

31:01

Well. Again, Different fathers

31:03

I think. You. Know Twenty

31:05

nineteen, the Trump Trump era. I just

31:07

did this data thing for Bloomberg

31:09

and. But. It's from

31:12

regime. Actually it

31:14

was the only regime of all

31:16

the presidents since two thousand the

31:18

had positive wage growth for everybody.

31:20

all income levels mint not everyone

31:22

but like all income levels to

31:25

securely. Lower. Income people. Who. Hadn't

31:27

seen a lot of wage growth

31:29

in years now. I think

31:31

on the margin maybe the tax reform had

31:34

some benefit but I'm of the view that

31:36

was just together with different reasons for everything.

31:38

Most the reason was it is it a

31:40

really long time to kind of the financial

31:43

crisis. And I think trump had

31:45

some good timing. Of. Yeah.

31:47

Financial crisis. I think the economy had

31:49

finally recovered. I. Think a lot

31:51

of technology. Initially impasse id a higher

31:54

wage people. I think it started to

31:56

trickle down. Finally the lower wage people.

31:58

So I think people. The Hundred. We.

32:01

Saw just a lot about like just been timing

32:03

and I think on the margin I I think

32:05

the tax. That the tax reform to do some

32:07

nice things, but I think it was marginal

32:09

but useful. but. Really? Was just where

32:11

we were in the cycle. and then the pandemic came

32:13

and I feel like we're now and and. Into for

32:15

a very different economy. Where. Sears.

32:18

Just a real shortage of labor. Particularly low

32:20

skill labor. So. You're just making

32:22

a lot more money has there's not that many of

32:24

them and. Here's. A huge demand for

32:26

service jobs right now it I think that's why

32:29

people are putting. A lot now on immigration

32:31

sort of filling that whole, but still

32:33

not a not. The. Actually, since

32:35

the pandemic. Higher

32:37

and middle high. Earners haven't had

32:39

a huge wage increase. in fact, I think

32:42

they're sobbing Had a real reach decreased. But

32:44

we are seeing in the lower end us and

32:47

the wage. Gains Just I think discuss is a

32:49

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34:33

back to where we began to discuss of a

34:35

recent piece about. People. Can simultaneously

34:37

benefit from rising wages and

34:40

also legitimately be a discontent

34:42

with rising inflation. Nonetheless, it's.

34:45

Almost. Impossible have significantly rising

34:47

I wages and zero inflation

34:49

to the scobey a level

34:51

of inflation. Where.

34:55

He. Kind of go. This is a good say.

34:59

An end and zero inflation probably isn't a good

35:01

thing unless you are d gross or of or

35:03

if you believe that there should be no growth

35:06

because. You yes you could continue have

35:08

lots of productivity growth and low inflation. The.

35:10

Pride can have wage growth and low inflation

35:12

rate you know, lots of productivity and known

35:14

for his. And.

35:17

You. Know we could debate whether or not the

35:19

cost of capital of kept artificially low for the

35:21

ten years prior to the pandemic, or whether. It.

35:24

Was just a product to code technology and

35:26

globalization Worth. It cause. Of capitals

35:28

low because it was actually just while many not

35:30

because central banks from manipulating and it just. There's.

35:33

A lot of capital. Other so, it was a

35:35

cap on the we Live in a Soul a largely. Capital.

35:38

Rich world even with. Butter. Four

35:40

percent interest rates are than zero. We're not talking about

35:42

the Nineteen eighties. here. we're not. I'm of the Nineteen

35:44

seventies. Or for much of the time

35:46

before that a minute just rates are still historically

35:49

on the low end. Tried that sully, not anywhere

35:51

near. Liar. So.

35:53

Maybe this whole idea of we who did get back

35:55

to two percent inflation rate which is what the Fed

35:57

and all central by as well. We're saying. Maybe.

36:00

that's the wrong number. You know, maybe it's 4%. I

36:02

don't know but why isn't that

36:04

conversation being had more actively?

36:07

Like, there's

36:09

a normative sense of inflation is high

36:11

because that number with that we decided that

36:13

inflation should be is below

36:17

what it currently is. But

36:19

we just made that number up anyway. Yeah,

36:23

we did. I think we're starting to

36:26

have that conversation. I'm starting to notice that it's

36:28

going to take a couple more inflation reports. I

36:30

think the Fed is hoping it was going back

36:32

to 2 and now it seems to be stalling

36:34

out. And I personally don't see how

36:36

it goes down lower. Like, it was

36:38

going down because we had all these deflationary

36:40

forces partially from coming back online from COVID,

36:42

but we saw a lot of goods price

36:45

deflation. And I'm

36:47

not sure I see, but we still

36:49

had high service inflation, which

36:51

again, largely driven by wages and

36:53

things like that. So now

36:56

that goods price deflation has pretty much moderated,

36:58

we still have the high service inflation. So

37:00

I'm not sure if I

37:02

see inflation then stalls out around like

37:04

2.5%, 3%.

37:06

But I think you're right. Like, there's no reason why

37:08

3 is worse than

37:11

2. In fact, even before the

37:13

pandemic, a lot of people were arguing for 4. So

37:15

I'm of the

37:17

view again, like inflation is a sign of

37:19

a healthy economy. We don't inflation it to

37:21

be zero, but we want inflation to be

37:23

as relatively low and predictable. The predictive stability

37:25

is key. We want it relatively stable and

37:28

we want it to like in theory, I

37:30

mean inflation was 5% and everyone knew

37:32

it was going to be 5% and

37:34

we could like constantly, you know, not to

37:36

worry about that. That wouldn't be a bad thing. Although higher inflation

37:38

does tend to be more volatile. So it's not a good thing.

37:41

But assuming it could be, it doesn't really

37:43

matter. It matters that it's predictable. And

37:47

it seems like the Fed can credibly has chosen

37:50

it, I guess. Although I'm starting

37:52

to rethink that I was a big fan

37:55

of inflation targeting. And Yeah, we

37:57

chose to although we the Fed's never really gotten to

37:59

2. It was my follow to announce

38:01

above to and like it's never really been

38:03

at to so how did sure the fed

38:06

has as much control room place and I

38:08

am sure to think them blaze she was

38:10

so low from two thousand on just as

38:12

we had a huge deflationary shock called trade

38:15

with China. And. Now.

38:17

That the gains in that are. Are not

38:20

so apparent going forward. So.

38:22

Inflation might just be higher. And.

38:24

Now the fed has to have this

38:27

conversation of oh well, maybe to.two maybe

38:29

three and said, and in theory, that's

38:31

fine. If. We're just say it's three and

38:33

it's see that three in the centre gets three.

38:35

Then you know there's nothing wrong with that. And. Ability

38:38

economies and pretty good shape as it really

38:40

worth taking it into a recession just so

38:42

we can go from. Three.

38:45

To Two especially the economy just naturally wants to

38:47

be a real assuming to just we can prove

38:49

the Fed can do it. So we would say

38:51

yes because I guess I credibility is important. although

38:53

I'm starting to feel like does anyone really think

38:56

the said if you look carefully when is the

38:58

Fed ever made it's inflation target and so if

39:00

they just go to three because like what we

39:02

can't make to. Then. I mean, what's

39:04

the point of inflation targeting and seems like you

39:06

can't make it so. People who are

39:09

smart people I know we're in. this are

39:11

like, well, I assume you're gonna

39:13

see them starting to massage the language. It's.

39:15

Like what we meant arrange. Like.

39:17

One hundred basis points and that's probably.

39:20

Where we're going to end up? Did we say to. I

39:22

am in the I guess we said to him

39:24

about you know week we didn't really mean to

39:26

women. Women: To as a as

39:29

can I'm I'm not a notion of

39:31

to. The. Could be three but

39:33

it could be one but it could be for my be

39:35

zero. Women between one in three with

39:37

to in the middle. Thousand.

39:41

Island as he will. marquise them are retiring

39:43

because of topic. It's really all my mind

39:46

right now. You play on

39:48

words aren't close with you Do for your better

39:50

Owners are Manila. Well, ah, I haven't

39:52

tried earlier. Tarzan's I was. Twenty.

39:54

one years old so that's a fun fact my

39:57

me but i was something else of of worry

39:59

we started recording that I recently

40:01

realized that I made an incredibly down

40:03

mistake calculating for my retirement. And

40:06

fortunately, it was in the category of oversaving

40:08

instead of undersaving. But it did bring the

40:10

question to mind for me because I started

40:12

reading a book about it, which is

40:15

what is the state of

40:17

American in terms of

40:19

retirement? Because I feel like the popular narrative

40:21

is that they're a disaster and they don't

40:23

save enough. There's

40:26

also, I mean, the rise of employer

40:28

matching, the rise of automatic enrollment into

40:31

401k. Apparently, the younger generations

40:33

are doing better with this. So I was wondering if

40:35

you have any data points to share with us about it.

40:38

Well, it's like we were saying earlier about you don't

40:40

want to romanticize the past. It's like, I

40:43

think people should have more money for retirement. They probably

40:45

don't have enough money to have the retirement they want,

40:47

but they still have way more money than anyone else

40:49

ever has had for retirement. So

40:51

things are better than before, but could

40:53

still be better. Like the old days,

40:55

I guess the defined benefit days in

40:57

the 70s and to some degree, the 80s, the

41:01

only 30, 40%, depending on your measure,

41:03

people had defined benefit plans. And

41:06

they only really were valuable if you stayed at

41:08

a company for most of your career. And even

41:10

then you had the risk. Defined

41:12

benefit plans went away because they

41:14

were very expensive and companies didn't want

41:16

to acknowledge how expensive it was to

41:18

bear that risk. Like people were finding

41:20

out what's a lot of risk to

41:23

manage your retirement. Yeah, it's

41:25

expensive and it's hard to provide a

41:27

risk-free retirement. And when companies had to

41:29

do it, they kind of were in denial of how expensive

41:31

it was. And then they kept

41:33

like you have these big blowups, people didn't get

41:35

their pension. And that's really bad. So

41:38

the government pretty much, we

41:40

did the regulation and forced companies to realize how expensive this

41:42

really was. And once they did that, they're like, oh, we

41:44

don't want to do this anymore. We're going to put

41:46

this on individuals. And the benefit

41:49

of that was that it was cheaper.

41:51

So way more people now have retirement

41:53

accounts than ever had defined benefit plans.

41:56

More people have savings than ever before. So

41:58

that's good. And that's one of the reasons I... Like, evidence does

42:00

show that retirement income is higher than it used

42:02

to be. Of course, people also live

42:04

longer. People are very reluctant to increase their

42:06

retirement age further. So they need more money

42:09

and healthcare costs are a much bigger deal

42:11

and long-term care costs are enormous and not

42:13

covered by Medicare and a lot of people

42:15

haven't really thought that through. I think all

42:17

these problems are fixable. We just aren't really

42:19

focused on it right now. But

42:22

it could be worse. It could be, you know,

42:24

before. And somehow people did get by. So

42:26

I think people will be okay. There's

42:29

more we could do to make it better. Adamus

42:59

you kind of have a way of looking at

43:01

things that is unusual and I find continually

43:04

insightful, makes me

43:06

think about what's going on

43:08

in the world in a different way. And that's of

43:11

immense value to everyone. So for whoever has

43:13

not read Alison's work, she doesn't call it

43:16

for Bloomberg as we said, she also does

43:19

some stuff for City Journal. I think the Bloomberg stuff

43:21

you probably have to pay for, which is a good

43:23

thing. Content should not always be

43:25

free even though this podcast is. I

43:28

look forward to continuing to learn from you

43:31

as I have in the past and thanks

43:33

for joining us tonight. Thanks

43:35

so much for having me. Yeah, thanks Alison.

43:38

So that was really fun conversation. I feel like

43:40

we were dipping in and out of a lot

43:42

of different topics and we kind of went around

43:44

her major topic, which is risk.

43:46

That's what her book was about. We didn't

43:48

get to ask her so much about it.

43:53

I feel like she is

43:55

a rare economist who is

43:58

interesting to listen to. She's

44:00

not a very serious person as you

44:02

mentioned in the beginning and she's fresh

44:05

and she's clear. She

44:07

explains things in a way that I think

44:10

makes sense to people who are in the

44:13

web of intellectual, economist,

44:15

whatever the heck and just

44:18

the normal people. So she can

44:20

say that while people want to eat out

44:22

more, duh, that's why they're upset about inflation.

44:26

Yeah, and this idea of risk, you know, again, as

44:28

you said, we didn't really get into

44:30

it with her because there

44:32

were much more immediate things to talk about. But

44:36

the thing is like people's attitudes

44:39

about risk and we did talk about this a little

44:41

of what a zero cost

44:43

capital environment for a decade led to.

44:47

You know, we all essentially want the

44:49

benefits of taking risks without the taking

44:52

risks. Like

44:54

we want all the things that come with

44:56

outsized risks, i.e. the outsized gains, but none

44:58

of us really want to take those risks

45:00

because we don't want outsized losses. We

45:03

all want everything but not at the cost of having

45:05

nothing. And then

45:08

we can lionize a few people who

45:10

seem to take outsized risks. I mean, whether

45:12

or not you love or hate Elon Musk,

45:14

part of what made him so enchanting

45:16

to so many people for a while is that he

45:18

did put everything on the line at one

45:21

point in time to build Tesla and

45:23

to go for SpaceX. And we think

45:25

that's cool, right? That someone's risks paid

45:27

off. Of course, we never really lionized

45:31

the gazillion numbers of people who

45:33

wanted to do that and wanted to be that and it

45:36

didn't work. Like there are lots

45:38

of unwritten books about lots of human beings

45:40

who tried and risked everything

45:43

and got nothing. There's

45:45

no book about that, oddly enough. Yeah,

45:47

I mean, I've met a decent number of

45:49

startup founders, you know? You

45:51

meet them three years later, you're like, what happened?

45:54

It's nothing. No one's going to write

45:56

any book about that. They basically

45:58

had a job that led. to nowhere.

46:00

But anyway, she writes a lot

46:03

too, which we kind of got into,

46:05

but didn't get deeply into the question

46:07

around risk and retirement. It's a fascinating

46:09

topic to me because on the one hand, you don't

46:11

want to under save, right? You don't want to be

46:13

90 years old realizing you live longer

46:15

than you meant to and that you have these enormous

46:17

healthcare bills that you can't pay for. But you also

46:20

don't want to have all this money waiting

46:22

for you and then you die when you're 75 and you

46:24

retired when you were 70. Maybe if we have her on

46:26

the phone again, she can give us some negative wisdom for

46:29

how to plan in the best way. So

46:32

shall we look at some of the news,

46:34

Dejure? Yeah, let's go. So

46:38

Zachary, I'm sure you remember that not too

46:40

long ago, there were a lot of freakouts

46:42

in the news, and with individual sort

46:45

of activists around colony

46:47

collapse that we were going to

46:50

basically lose the support of honeybees in the

46:52

United States and our agricultural systems were going

46:55

to collapse because we were running out of bees.

46:57

Do you remember that? I

46:59

do remember that. There was like the whole, oh my God, the

47:01

bees are dying. It's like the

47:04

beginning of one of those apocalyptic sci-fi

47:06

films where someone casually sees the bees

47:08

dying and thinks nothing of it. And

47:10

then the next scene, society has

47:12

collapsed utterly and we're all living in huts

47:15

in the Mojave Desert. Exactly.

47:17

So we lived through the first scene, but we

47:19

did not make it to the second scene. And

47:21

new data has come out that we actually have

47:23

a record number of honeybees in the United States.

47:26

And that is talking about

47:28

livestock bees. So honeybees, they're essentially

47:31

like cattle. Their

47:33

populations are taken care of by a vast

47:35

industry. So that data is for those honeybees,

47:38

but they also think that feral

47:40

honeybees or wild honeybees are also

47:42

populous, reaching high numbers. So long

47:45

story short, no need to worry anymore. The

47:47

honeybees have been handled. Honeybees

47:51

are here. They are more abundant now in

47:53

the world than they have ever been. There

47:56

are honeybees everywhere, including social

47:59

media. beekeeper has

48:01

racked up billions of views. With

48:03

more people picking up beekeeping as

48:05

a hobby and booming demand from

48:07

the pollinator from the almond milk

48:09

industry, honeybees are now the fastest

48:11

growing livestock segment, according to analysis

48:13

from the Washington Post. And

48:16

do we know why there has been this sudden reversal? There's

48:19

a few different reasons, one of them being agricultural

48:22

tax breaks, not such a sexy

48:24

answer, but the sexier answer and

48:26

a big reason actually has to

48:28

do with the supercharging of almond

48:30

tree farms. Oddly enough, the

48:32

American public got obsessed with putting almond

48:35

milk into everything that led

48:37

to people trying to meet the demand,

48:39

as that led to hyperpollination which led

48:41

to the health of honeybee colonies.

48:44

So there you have it. Wow. Yeah.

48:47

Wouldn't have expected that one. Huh. Yeah.

48:50

If people are interested, Washington Post has a

48:52

really interesting article on it, their Department of

48:54

Data. Because they want to read

48:57

the whole story. Well, alright. Alright.

49:00

Yeah. So honeybees are back

49:02

and flourishing. Moving on, it is

49:04

becoming readily apparent that Thailand is

49:06

going to become the first

49:09

Southeast Asian nation to legalize

49:11

same sex marriage. Their lower

49:13

house of parliament passed a

49:15

bill not too long ago

49:18

and they expect that there is not going to be any

49:20

resistance that bill passing through the

49:22

Senate and then being signed into law by the

49:24

king. So that's pretty historic. It is pretty historic.

49:27

I mean, granted the king of Thailand

49:29

is... Okay, we won't even

49:31

go into Thailand's incredibly messy

49:33

political system. But at least for the

49:35

time being, the king has

49:37

done something that we would consider to be

49:39

correct. Yes. And to be fair, Para Lind

49:41

did put it through before we got

49:45

into the king signing. Anyway,

49:47

good for human rights. We won't

49:49

get into the other governmental 40 questions

49:52

about Thailand. And

49:54

then last but not least, not sure

49:56

how far this news traveled around, but

49:58

it's very interesting. The. Census.

50:02

Bureau has updated. The

50:04

Obamas for the first time and

50:06

twenty seven years for the census.

50:09

Around the questions or how to do with race. And

50:11

ethnicity so they did

50:13

some. Policies. That

50:15

really need to be done a long time and

50:17

co like strike the word negro. From

50:19

Forums paranoid they and up without which

50:22

is wilde but also what they did

50:24

was supplied actually affect people's responses is

50:26

that you can now take multiple boxes

50:29

so they combined all of race as

50:31

as the person's into one so I

50:33

say you're black and hispanic you can

50:35

sit both say. Also added a lot

50:38

more categories for people that might be

50:40

Middle Eastern and North Africa and heritage.

50:42

Previously they were just sold to. Check

50:45

the white box, which obviously it's a little bit

50:47

of a. Overly

50:49

broad brush to paid for people

50:52

that say from Lebanon. So

50:54

now there has been a demarcation

50:56

of categories, and they. They

50:58

think that people have been much more accurately able

51:00

to say. What Is

51:02

a race? ethnicity? Yeah.

51:04

Corseted say about that is. At

51:07

the same time you have a greater value. Tosh

51:09

identify where you're from and who you are. Let.

51:12

Alone the whole June. Twenty.

51:14

Three and me effect of people now

51:16

have been. Where have. All. These

51:18

things that they were unaware of before and

51:20

simultaneous. I mean, I'd say so. Not.

51:23

Be able to use those categories

51:25

anymore because of the rollback of

51:27

affirmative action that was for some

51:29

pre racial preferences. I

51:31

don't know to make a that other than. Ever.

51:34

More sales like more information, less policy,

51:36

more policy was information around. The.

51:39

Music. I think.

51:42

Any time you have something that leads to

51:44

more comprehensive data, it's a good thing. I

51:47

just think there's like with the more that I

51:49

look into data yeah I'd say the more I'm

51:51

convinced that there is an absolute dearth of had

51:53

had a particularly on the federal level. So I

51:55

am actually just one hundred percent pro. This. Or

51:58

that. More. Dr. Debra Hixson

52:00

That's what we got for today. More data, more

52:03

data, more problems. We say no. Dr.

52:05

Gilbert So thank you all for listening. We will

52:07

be back with you next week. Please

52:09

sign up for the newsletter,

52:12

What Could Go Right? It's free, shows

52:14

up weekly, gives you a dose of things

52:16

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52:19

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52:21

fire headlines that we just discussed.

52:24

Please send us ideas, send us

52:26

critiques, send us comments about the

52:28

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52:30

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52:33

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52:35

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52:37

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52:39

as much as possible and not just a

52:41

conversation at you. So

52:43

we look forward to the feedback and

52:46

the engagement and continuing to build an

52:48

idea movement that hopefully leads to a more

52:51

constructive future rather than a worse one. So

52:54

thank you for your time and we will be

52:56

back next week. Dr. Debra Hixson Thanks, everyone.

53:00

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