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bill. Learn more

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at electronicpaymentscoalition.org. One

0:30

of the biggest threats to Joe Biden's re-election

0:32

is a viable third-party candidate. In

0:35

fact, Democratic strategist Doug Sosnick has gone

0:37

so far as to state that Trump

0:40

can't win without a third-party candidate

0:42

dividing the anti-Trump vote. It

0:45

wouldn't take much for a third party to have a

0:47

big impact. In 2020, the election

0:50

was decided by fewer than 40,000 votes

0:53

in three swing states. But

0:55

in 2024, third-party fever seems to

0:58

be on the rise. Already,

1:00

Cornel West, RFK Jr., and

1:02

Jill Stein are running. Then

1:05

there's the quixotic movement known

1:07

as No Labels, which

1:09

has cited a stream of polling data

1:11

arguing that a large majority of Americans

1:13

are crying out for an alternative to

1:16

Trump and Biden. The man

1:18

producing those polls is Mark Penn,

1:20

best known for two things. His

1:23

devotion to centrist politics and

1:25

his long-time role as the top pollster

1:28

and strategist for Bill and Hillary Clinton.

1:31

Penn's wife, Nancy Jacobson, runs No

1:33

Labels, and Penn provides the data

1:35

that she uses to support her

1:37

project. Penn reports that 64%

1:39

of voters say the country needs

1:42

another choice if it's a Biden-Trump

1:44

rematch, and that most voters would

1:47

consider a moderate, independent candidate as

1:49

an alternative to the current president and the

1:51

former president. Not surprisingly,

1:54

Mark and Nancy's work has

1:57

infuriated Democrats, who are

1:59

spending money to discredit at them,

2:01

sue no labels, thwart the group's

2:03

voter registration efforts, and pressure its

2:05

affiliates. So what does

2:07

Mark Penn think about all of this? We're

2:09

going to ask him. I'm

2:12

Ryan Lizza and this is Playbook Deep Dive.

2:18

Mark Penn ascended through politics as a

2:20

close ally of the Clinton family. He

2:22

held senior roles for Bill's 1996 re-election,

2:25

as well as Hillary's 2008 campaign, and then

2:29

had an epic falling out. Now

2:31

he runs a large marketing and communications

2:33

firm called Stagwell, and he publishes the

2:35

Harvard Caps Harris Poll, which he seems

2:38

to be using to troll both Democrats

2:40

and Republicans. He's

2:43

been asking lots of questions that either

2:45

Trump or Biden don't want to talk

2:47

about, from how the public

2:49

perceives Joe Biden's physical acuity, poorly,

2:53

to whether voters will care about a possible

2:55

criminal conviction for Trump. It depends.

2:58

Two, how strong of an appetite there actually

3:00

is for a third party challenger. Penn's

3:03

work amounts to a strategic map

3:06

for anyone who might want to

3:08

dismantle Trump or Biden's candidacy. And

3:10

conveniently, his wife Nancy just happens to have

3:13

a third party that is searching for a

3:15

nominee. To freaked out Democrats,

3:17

no labels swears it will not use

3:19

that platform to help elect Trump. Though

3:22

that looks like an empty promise to Biden

3:24

allies watching the likes of Joe

3:26

Manchin, Larry Hogan and others flirting

3:28

with the no labels opportunity. I

3:31

caught up with Penn this week while I

3:33

was on the road in New Hampshire and

3:35

he was in Miami Beach. We talked about

3:38

the GOP primary results, his controversial polls, his

3:40

real relationship with no labels, and

3:42

why he thinks that Nikki Haley may still

3:44

have a big role to play in this

3:47

year's election. Mark,

3:51

let's talk about third parties and

3:53

some of the polling on third

3:56

parties, because you have been very,

3:58

very bullish on potent. demand

4:00

for a third party out there. A

4:03

lot of people disagree with you

4:05

on this one, I think. Make the

4:07

case, what have you learned in

4:09

your polling recently about whether the

4:11

electorate is screaming out for

4:14

a third party option here? Well,

4:17

I had a question that I did maybe, I

4:19

don't know, a year and a half ago that

4:21

I started, which is just a basic question. Like,

4:24

okay, if it's Biden v. Trump, would

4:26

you consider a moderate independent? Okay,

4:29

now, I know that question really,

4:31

I did John Anderson's polling, if you

4:33

remember him, and I technically did.

4:36

1980 third party candidate. I did Ross

4:38

Perot's polling. Ross

4:42

Perot got night. I

4:44

did his benchmark, to be accurate. I did

4:46

his. So that's the first poll in the

4:48

general? The very first poll, because then he

4:51

brought in, I was with somebody, Peter Uberoff,

4:53

and we used to have

4:55

with my own partner, Doug Shone, we used to have

4:57

what we call the freelance billionaire wants to run for

4:59

president poll. And lots of

5:01

people would do it, and we'd say, thank you, it's not

5:04

your time, et cetera. So we did it,

5:06

and this time it said, you know what, you could win.

5:13

And if I look at it, there was maybe

5:15

35% that were really interested and could go for

5:17

a third

5:21

party. And in reality, he got

5:23

up to 39% in June, right,

5:26

before he pulled out and had this crazy

5:28

thing about Bush's wedding, whatever. But

5:31

I look at the conditions today,

5:33

and about 60% say they would consider

5:35

a moderate independent. So

5:38

they're certainly, to the

5:40

extent, two thirds are

5:42

unhappy with the economy, half say their

5:44

life is getting worse, 70% say

5:47

they don't like the

5:49

choice that they have. So

5:52

is there an opportunity? There's

5:55

certainly historically, certainly

5:57

historically there's an opportunity. Whether

6:00

or not the right person comes up

6:02

and does it. I always say whether you're

6:04

a Democrat, Republican, or whatever, being president is

6:06

a low probability profession. Even

6:09

the person with the highest probability, except for

6:11

the last week of the election, has a

6:13

low probability of being in the office. When

6:16

people say it's a long shot, well, every presidential campaign

6:18

is a long shot. Sure. Wait,

6:21

so this cycle, have you done any

6:24

billionaire presidential

6:26

polls this cycle yet? I don't do

6:29

that anymore. I

6:31

don't realize that I'm not active in

6:33

the profession anymore other than I do

6:35

my part in that. Yeah,

6:38

but if someone came to you and said,

6:41

okay. Here's the thing I don't get

6:43

about the third party thing, and I

6:45

understand there's a vague demand, but basically

6:47

third parties, when they come along, they

6:50

attract attention because they are

6:52

addressing an issue that the two

6:54

major parties are ignoring. With

6:57

Ross Perot, it was deficit reduction

6:59

was his big issue and some

7:02

political reform stuff, why they call it the

7:04

reform party. Then usually,

7:06

the two parties realize

7:08

they've ignored something and

7:10

they co-opt that issue and the third

7:12

party dies. Richard

7:14

Hofstadter had a great line about this. He said third

7:17

parties are like bees. Once they have stung, they die.

7:21

That's

7:23

getting ahead of ourselves because I don't really

7:25

see what the sting is here. What is

7:28

the issue that a third party could actually

7:30

run on that Trump

7:32

and Biden aren't addressing? Well,

7:34

but the very issue of national

7:36

unity and solving problems like this,

7:39

we were talking about immigration and

7:41

comprehensive immigration reform. Well,

7:44

comprehensive immigration reform has been favored by 65% or

7:46

70% of the population for

7:49

the last 10 years. Most

7:52

issues have solutions

7:54

that in the current

7:56

polarized environment Aren't

7:58

getting implemented. So the kind

8:00

of opening here would be look for a

8:03

first for a third party to come in

8:05

and say, look, we're going to actually fix

8:07

the problems because we're gonna be divorced from

8:09

the partisanship the republicans and democrats are just

8:11

got themselves so much you know into it.

8:14

Never forget that Lincoln was in effect a

8:16

third party one with thirty nine percent. But

8:19

Alex, I'm not pushing that. A

8:21

psych. Don't be enough that he

8:23

asked me to produce is the

8:25

questions is a starkly more of

8:28

an opportunity than I ever seen.

8:30

Yes, Will somebody come along who has

8:32

the that to drive for the issues

8:34

in the right, I I I can't

8:36

tell you that nobody's there, right? But

8:40

it still is sort of of

8:42

of process argument any on. A

8:44

to lie Yeah let's bring was bring

8:47

everyone together and but sometimes I have

8:49

no less. Six Immigration: Let's do something

8:51

about education. Let's do something about our

8:53

budget and get back to a balanced

8:56

budgets. You know the number of problems

8:58

year since the Bill Clinton days that

9:00

are now routinely unresolved and are carrying

9:03

the country apart says is is a

9:05

pretty long list. Or

9:08

it suits the that as

9:10

an entity called no Labels

9:12

that seems to want to

9:14

be the vessel for this

9:16

third parties movement and jar

9:19

all as their presentations. Site

9:21

your excellent on surveys so

9:23

tell us a little bit

9:25

about ah no labels on

9:27

ends. You're. Involved into it

9:29

or non involvement in that. Price

9:32

is right there might my wife Nancy

9:34

take since. Sounded. no

9:37

labels him when i was busy

9:39

waxes with a killer campaigns and

9:41

see runs it and she makes

9:44

the decisions i have i have

9:46

no formal or informal role other

9:48

than that i occasionally look at

9:51

some polling or i have in

9:53

on any the polls i do

9:55

are kind of publicans and i

9:58

support my wife as No

10:00

labels is doing what it's doing. And she

10:02

tries to make clear that she's just getting

10:04

ballot access. And

10:07

she's just creating an opportunity if somebody

10:09

were to come along and

10:11

be the right person or

10:14

not. And

10:16

I assure you, she's

10:19

not someone who ever would even

10:21

consider voting for Trump. So somehow

10:24

the Democrats don't fully understand

10:27

that fact. But

10:31

I have a very full-time job at

10:33

the moment running a company that's got

10:35

12,000 people. People

10:38

don't quite realize that I left

10:41

all this behind gladly having spent

10:43

about 30 years in

10:46

the trenches so that

10:49

I could actually do the

10:51

commentary that is so enjoyable

10:53

and it's not as risky.

10:57

I got to push you on that a little bit because I

11:00

think you're being a little too, you know,

11:04

you don't know anything about this effort. Larry

11:06

Hogan in the fall was at this event

11:09

at the Hay Adams in Washington, D.C. and

11:11

he started to talk a little bit about

11:13

the third-party portion of his conversation. And

11:16

he said, Mark, he said, Mark and

11:18

Nancy came to talk to me about their

11:20

big third-party idea. So

11:22

I feel like you've got to take a little bit of

11:25

responsibility if you have some of these candidates running out there

11:28

citing your name as part of

11:30

these conversations. I don't actually, if

11:33

I, I maybe spoke to

11:35

him in my entire life once

11:38

for 10 minutes. So I cannot,

11:42

I didn't catch that but

11:45

if you went back to the number of times I've

11:48

actually spoken to Larry, it is not more than 10

11:50

minutes and it's not more than once. Why

11:54

are you getting the question, man? I don't remember but

11:57

I can assure you that my wife spoke

11:59

to him for a long time. for

12:01

numerous hours and she really is running this effort

12:03

and I am off running a company

12:06

that I delight in and occasionally doing

12:08

polls and podcasts. All

12:10

right, fair enough. Who else do

12:14

you think is on the list

12:16

for no labels? Anyone whose name is

12:18

not out there? That's where you're gonna have to

12:20

ask. You think Nicky? You're gonna have to ask

12:22

Nancy Jenkins because people are gonna say, first they

12:25

say, well, they have no chance. Then they say,

12:27

well, who's listening? Well, maybe that person

12:29

would really have a chance. I

12:31

don't know whether there's gonna be a person who emerges.

12:34

Who would have thought Ross Perot, who

12:36

would have thought, look, my very first poll idea. I don't

12:38

think anyone would have thought Ross Perot. You're right about that.

12:40

Right, I mean, the very first poll I did in 1976,

12:45

I came to my partner and said, we have to

12:47

stop the poll. He says, why? So

12:49

you left off one of the presidential candidates. He

12:52

says, which one? I said, well, we left off

12:54

Jimmy Carter. He says, forget about it.

12:58

So, you know, I don't

13:00

know if she's, you're gonna have to get her

13:02

on a podcast. If she'll do it. That's fair.

13:05

Or get her and see where

13:07

she's driving it because she really is, I

13:09

guarantee you, a hundred percent driving

13:11

this thing and working

13:14

with hundreds and hundreds of people on

13:17

a very ambitious but very

13:19

sensible project. And I think that people

13:22

have to realize that it

13:24

is that she is a very sensible

13:26

and strategic person who

13:29

understands what understands

13:31

where she thinks the country should not go. No

13:35

fair, I mean, a lot of Democrats, as you know, are very

13:37

mad at you guys about this. And

13:40

like I said, I always say, you know, what

13:42

they should have done is just have a stake

13:44

with her and what a mistake they've made and

13:46

how much time they've have wasted barking

13:50

up the wrong tree. What

13:52

do you mean by, what do you mean? I

13:54

think that, again, she's approached

13:57

this thing in

13:59

a very sensible way. way and she has

14:01

no intention whatsoever of being

14:03

a spoiler in any concept, in any concept.

14:05

And so I think that that's a very

14:07

important value to her and I think they've

14:09

wasted a lot of

14:11

effort not just sitting down

14:13

with her and understanding that. Do

14:16

you think the White

14:18

House is behind some of these efforts by

14:21

donors to sue no labels and

14:24

to work voter registration and pressure

14:27

the affiliates? I have

14:29

no idea. Or in other words, is that

14:31

what you're talking about when you say they should have sat

14:33

down with her? No, I've said, look,

14:35

a lot of these groups and things that

14:37

are wasting time I think

14:39

should just have sat down with

14:42

her and I think understood that

14:45

she has no interest in running a spoiler

14:47

effort. And

14:50

the final thing on this, I think, do you

14:53

think Nikki Haley would fit the profile of

14:56

what No Labels is trying to do? Given

14:59

our discussion earlier? I think to

15:02

reframe your question, is Nikki

15:05

Haley someone who's going to... I just

15:07

don't think she is going to run

15:09

an independent candidacy

15:12

for president. I don't think that's

15:14

a likely scenario on her part.

15:16

I think it's more likely that

15:18

she'll be Trump's VP pick than

15:20

that she'll break off and be

15:23

an independent vice president. I'll

15:25

go back. There's probably

15:27

a lot of people

15:29

who might... Look

15:33

somebody who's really going to be an independent

15:35

has to draw equally from both and has

15:37

to really be able to catch the imagination

15:39

of the country. I don't know,

15:41

you're just going to have to wait and see if somebody like

15:43

that emerges. But I don't

15:46

think it's going to be Nikki Haley. Thank you. We're

16:00

recording on the Wednesday after the New Hampshire primary.

16:29

Let's dig into the data

16:31

and I'm very curious to hear what

16:34

your analysis of both sides is.

16:36

And let's start with Haley and Trump. What

16:39

did we learn Tuesday night about the Republican

16:41

race? Well, look, I

16:43

think Haley had a credible

16:45

candidacy, really

16:47

drawing from the independent voters. And we knew

16:49

that the real feature of the primary was

16:52

that there wasn't going to be much of

16:54

a contest on the Democratic side. And

16:57

so there'd be a healthy population of independent voters

16:59

that would give her a chance. But

17:01

we really learned that Donald Trump, even in New

17:03

Hampshire, has a commanding hold

17:05

on the Republican base. And

17:09

getting 70, 75% of

17:11

registered Republicans in

17:13

New Hampshire is a pretty commanding hold

17:16

on that base. Now, most people don't

17:18

realize that there are 23 states

17:20

that take independent voters in

17:22

the Republican primary, which is

17:25

why the most conservative candidate

17:27

actually typically doesn't win. But

17:30

Donald Trump now is the conservative

17:33

candidate of the Republican base.

17:36

Nikki Haley is the independent

17:38

candidate, drawing primarily from

17:40

what would be general election

17:42

swing voters or softer Republicans.

17:45

And there were not enough of them to put her over

17:47

the top in New Hampshire. Right,

17:50

I've seen you point out that to

17:53

remind people that somewhat conservatives,

17:55

that's The sort of

17:57

sweet spot in the GOP primary, and you've noted

17:59

that. Mitt. Romney and John Mccain

18:02

you know who were not So

18:04

does for this right Candidates have

18:06

one. That was

18:08

your now says before to Hampshire A

18:10

decent Basically what you're saying is New

18:12

Hampshire shows that she's just too far.

18:14

Ah to the last. And if if

18:16

you're only one in twenty five percent

18:18

of republicans, it is. it is. But

18:20

is the data that you looked at

18:22

Tuesday night means that she's got no

18:24

past even in those twenty three or

18:27

were forty two or twenty three remaining

18:29

states, well he ignores. Have a pass

18:31

if you change voters' minds us. But

18:33

what this says if see can't get

18:35

more than twenty five percent of the

18:37

republican. Base practically speaking. even fc

18:39

run the table. she's going to

18:41

lose and she'll probably get really

18:44

murdered in the Caucasus where where

18:46

where you know that our still

18:48

to just walk away with all

18:50

the delegates soldier. So I think

18:53

that said that structurally right now.

18:55

unless he has some kind of

18:57

game changer, Ccs can seize likely

18:59

to lose. How does that mean

19:02

you should get out of the

19:04

race? Ah, you know he gotten

19:06

to the forties. You know,

19:08

the race consolidated kind of quickly.

19:11

He does have a strong faith

19:13

almost anything can happen in politics.

19:15

why not run it? Absolutely Super

19:17

Tuesday, right? And and see what

19:20

happens without Trump? You never know.

19:22

As I always say, it's Trump

19:24

against Trump And so right now,

19:26

Trump is actually a much better

19:29

Trump than I've ever seen. I

19:31

was. I was remarking that yesterday

19:33

he actually shared the podium with

19:35

other people who had previously opposes.

19:37

That's. Okay, I thought they all

19:40

Donald Trump. right? Yeah.

19:43

But do that. Either griner have heard

19:45

you say this. but and I think

19:47

I agree with you in a couple

19:49

of cases did that to victory speech

19:51

in Iowa d Town Hall with Fox

19:53

in Iowa leave but I did not

19:56

see that Trump last night despite giving

19:58

did makes his as a. Well,

20:00

swami to just torch Nikki Haley had.

20:03

To me it was it was if if

20:06

it's a divide the plastic agree with this.

20:08

If you are watching that it was an

20:10

of he still trump if you take them

20:12

off if you do something his entire political

20:15

strategy goes out the window and you just

20:17

eat. He talks about Nikki Haley the whole

20:19

time and sort of ignore instead of ignoring

20:21

her and you know correct me if I'm

20:24

wrong with this is the obvious strategy after

20:26

he when such a commanding of victory talk

20:28

about Biden in the general election. Ah

20:31

yes, that's right, there was no Trump

20:33

for like three quarters of it. and

20:35

then kind of all. Trump's car came

20:37

out on the and we used to

20:40

talk about Saturday night Clinton than Sunday

20:42

Clinton right as soon as a square

20:44

awaits like and so sorry. I'll think

20:46

of all, Trump is buried, but he

20:48

says contained a lot more generally, which

20:51

is why he's doing better frankly than

20:53

he ever has rights Against the scene

20:55

of him consolidating all his his opponents

20:57

was remarkable. In two thousand and sixteen,

20:59

the only people. He had wears his

21:02

family there was literally and nobody's

21:04

who would stand on a podium

21:06

with a guy. prove our prior

21:08

and nurse got ninety one indictments

21:10

and everybody is standing with him.

21:12

This really is really incredible in

21:14

that sense. but ah York I

21:16

thought Nikki Haley's ah you know

21:18

presence was strong but her message

21:20

was really weak known her message

21:22

was just like you know what

21:24

are some so loser and all

21:26

of take you to win And

21:28

that's not an uplifting message. She.

21:30

Had a moment there that I

21:32

thought she could have capitalized on

21:34

a vision for the country right

21:36

that she would represent and instead

21:38

see Actually I thought sailed to

21:40

take that moments of is she

21:42

time that Well she got out

21:44

there early would people were watching

21:46

and and I thought see like

21:48

I said her personal presentation good

21:50

for her message can have flat.

21:54

That. Sort of up by and will

21:57

be learned if anything from the results

21:59

was like. The same Biden is

22:01

the nominee. that's the Democratic

22:03

party's is more ah coalesced

22:05

around Biden than the Republican

22:07

party is coalesced around Trump.

22:10

Or. It's third, there's no opponent really

22:12

ah answers as and and if I

22:14

ask the voters of i look

22:16

at the percentages of fort by this

22:19

a nominee Biden has the support

22:21

of of democrats are and he has

22:23

consolidated that peter both both practically and

22:25

I think politically and even in

22:27

the polls and of course there are

22:30

doubts about out of course is zero

22:32

scattered age issue and of course

22:34

this doesn't have the best you know

22:36

job ratings and you know but

22:39

still. You know, Democrats

22:41

are not saying I want an alternative,

22:43

right? They are actually lining up behind

22:45

Biden and I think the fact that

22:47

they did that last minute right and

22:49

campaign was effective and entered forestall what

22:51

could have been really embarrassing eyes they

22:53

said, well, we didn't participate in themselves,

22:55

got a whole bunch of votes and

22:57

and as he was a smart move

23:00

in the end and it it underscored

23:02

that even as a right in he's

23:04

he's a winner. With Democrats. That's

23:07

as you see disadvantage for second debts.

23:09

I don't think that's the conventional wisdom

23:11

that Biden has a firmer grasp over

23:13

the Democratic party day Trump has over

23:16

the Republican party. You hear people quite

23:18

often make the opposite case. You're saying

23:20

that's not true? Yeah, no, I hear

23:22

people think this. and and I'm always

23:24

wondering why all the Republicans all the

23:27

time or a like picking on Biden

23:29

and trying to? They're they're trying to

23:31

like make it true that Democrats should

23:33

get rid of him. Okay, several cats

23:35

are must kids. Rid Of Him. And

23:37

I don't know that the Republican I don't

23:39

know why the republicans want democrats to get

23:42

rid of of it's none of it makes

23:44

any sense to me. I am at all

23:46

I can tell you is that if I

23:48

ran a primary question he would get a

23:50

higher percentage wrote in the primary generally than

23:52

Trump was getting. Maybe that's different now and

23:54

and practically doesn't have any opponent a than

23:57

that then they have the siri going around

23:59

that like. Oh yeah, but we

24:01

get to the convention. they're going to

24:03

put somebody else in. All the delegates

24:05

are going to be biden selected delegates,

24:07

right? They're not going anywhere. I.

24:10

Am shocked at how many people's smart

24:12

Democrats to who still believes that and

24:14

still does. two versions of this one

24:16

is like lot of well connected smart

24:18

democrats is a door biden, stock inhibit

24:20

possibly still think that then are people

24:23

who just aren't a attention and they're

24:25

like by blocking be the nominee right

24:27

fists spread of as big. As

24:29

if we can all agree is going to be the

24:31

nominee on. Let me ask you this.

24:33

There was something interesting in that in the

24:35

exit polls on how much stock we should

24:38

put in them are yet until their com.

24:40

I know the days to some waiting against

24:42

the final results and so I don't know

24:44

how good they are from last night, but

24:46

the ones that came out late last night

24:48

the latest round it showed like ten percent

24:50

on the democratic side said they won't vote

24:52

for Biden no matter what if he's the

24:54

nominee. But then it was something like a

24:56

bump. a don't have a number for me,

24:58

but who's in a thirty thirty one percentage?

25:00

Thirty one. Okay, what do you make. Of

25:03

that. Well

25:05

again. Ah, I think that

25:07

that Trump has a real

25:09

problem here where it's. It's

25:11

it's not. Somehow it's not as reflected

25:13

in the over a horse races because

25:15

even in my get in the latest

25:17

Harvard caps, Harris fired from by like

25:20

seven. But of course he's only at

25:22

like forty seven. so not getting above

25:24

your trump at forty seven. an inner

25:26

in their head to head with via.

25:29

Get our but he's not getting the in

25:31

our fifty or anything like that. So. ah

25:34

but for trump's appears to me

25:36

has a problem which is the

25:38

nikki haley voters are it's the

25:40

nikki haley voters a large percentage

25:42

of them are are that are

25:44

never trump and will they in

25:46

the and came back to trump

25:48

or does trump have a way

25:50

of consolidating of it seems to

25:52

me that trump almost have to

25:54

pick her as vice presidents he

25:56

really has no class right because

25:58

she's gonna be so there,

26:00

give her 25% of the delegates,

26:03

right? And

26:05

as a practical matter, she has all of

26:08

the votes he needs to win. Nobody else

26:10

will have put those votes or

26:13

that coalition together. On

26:15

the Democratic side, that's just not really the case.

26:17

They're all going to be by delegates.

26:19

You know, he'll just, you know, he'll

26:22

give a speech at the convention. There's

26:24

not going to be any kind of

26:26

real split that way. It seems

26:29

to me that Democrats held together

26:32

despite Biden's ratings in

26:34

the midterms and they're relatively

26:36

holding together. Only 10% won't

26:39

vote for Biden, but 30% of

26:42

these other voters on the other side won't

26:44

vote for Trump. It seems like Trump has

26:46

a bigger problem than Biden does in that

26:48

respect. That's really

26:50

interesting. I mean, that would be a case for

26:52

Nikki Haley to stay in a little bit longer

26:55

and actually rack up some delegates if

26:57

she can and prove if she can

26:59

hit into the 40s in

27:03

some of these other independent heavy states.

27:06

If she is willing to be Trump's vice

27:08

president, if she doesn't want to

27:10

be Trump's vice president and she just

27:12

won a president or dropped, then,

27:14

you know, she should drop. But

27:17

if she wants to forge a

27:19

coalition that might be useful in the

27:21

future and at the end of the day, she's willing

27:23

to accept that, you know, which Trump

27:25

will have to go kicking and screaming. But Trump has

27:27

no choice. He could do her or he could do

27:29

Tim Scott. Anybody else is not

27:32

going to really, I think, even be remotely

27:34

helpful. Well, I was

27:36

just going to say what wrote about

27:38

Tim Scott and like the Haley voter

27:40

doesn't strike me as an enthusiastic, yes, Nikki

27:42

Haley voter. It's just a placeholder for

27:44

not being Trump. So you could sort of

27:46

swap out Haley with, you say only,

27:48

Scott's the only person you can think of

27:51

that would have that would bring that

27:53

coalition together might conceivably. But I think that

27:55

she'll have more sway with with the

27:58

suburban women. Right. You

28:00

know, And and those suburb and

28:02

women classically vote a lot more

28:04

republican than people realize. Ah, but

28:07

but in the in the you

28:09

know, in the Trump case, you

28:11

know they're they're they're They're really

28:13

queasy about him. And and she,

28:15

she does. She's she would have

28:17

a me. The reason why she

28:19

would be such a great general

28:21

election candidate for the Republicans is

28:23

is essentially just that. She would

28:25

I think get that women's republican

28:27

vote in the suburbs overwhelmingly and

28:29

that. Would be the end of the election. Also

28:32

the little bit about Trump

28:34

and his his weaknesses and

28:36

strengths this time and. I.

28:38

Wonder if you have thoughts about what

28:41

he did right in two thousand and

28:43

sixteen? what he did wrong in two

28:45

tours in two thousand and twenty twenties,

28:47

Or the differences between those campaigns and

28:49

that he might learn from. And

28:51

twenty twenty four not ask

28:53

you to given strategic advice

28:55

to register as analyzed us

28:57

know I thought it was

29:00

night and day, I thought

29:02

two thousand and sixteen. He

29:04

staked out a of clear

29:06

issues immigration, phrase, crime to

29:08

some extent, or he flipped

29:10

democratic issues around right because

29:12

those are issues that were

29:14

mostly democratic issues and he

29:16

took working class constituencies as

29:18

a result of flipping notices.

29:20

And even though. The the two

29:22

of them hurled insults at each other

29:24

all day long. I think those issues

29:27

that estate that really determine the race.

29:30

Doesn't twenty? He didn't have a

29:32

campaign, he had no new issues.

29:34

No, no agenda. He was

29:37

flailing all over the place on it was

29:39

terrible campaign I think it was lucky to

29:41

get as many votes as he got and

29:43

and two thousand twenty his debate performances were

29:45

were kind of bizarre gaps in our south

29:48

I thought you know he had going from

29:50

was was you know had a good economy

29:52

for a couple years and that was probably

29:54

but I think it's a terrible cafe and

29:56

and I think he you know what he's

29:59

doing so far. Surprised me is

30:01

got higher numbers that he had before he

30:03

got a forty eight percent favorable. She's got

30:05

a better organization. It seems to me that

30:08

he had before his lot more formal here

30:10

it's and twenty twenty. I would have been

30:12

really surprised if he won that his campaign

30:14

so bad. As I wanted to say

30:16

those and when I did a real action. I.

30:19

Spent most of the time

30:21

planning out with president. The.

30:23

Agenda for the future. Because.

30:26

Voters. Look at it and they want to know what's

30:28

in it for them and the next four years. And.

30:31

Neither of these two candidates really seem to the

30:33

so far be rolling out much in the way

30:35

of what they're going to do in the next

30:37

four years. Yeah. How would you

30:39

assess? We had Axelrod on the podcast

30:41

recently and hurt his whole critiques of

30:44

the of the by operation which you

30:46

critiques of what they've done so far

30:48

in terms of general election strategy. I'm

30:52

in. Ah I was very unhappy

30:54

with what they did during the

30:56

summer because that summer of it's

30:58

really a good time to put

31:00

a fresh face on what you're

31:02

doing. Get around the country you

31:04

know, stake out some issues and

31:06

instead he was on the beach.

31:09

Kind. Of half close. The entire time

31:11

I thought the summer with his disaster

31:13

side and by the time everybody got

31:15

back and Labour Day and that of

31:17

his numbers really started to tank and

31:19

people under circus the summer was wasted.

31:22

Now their strategy as look. We're.

31:24

Losing the top issues. So we're gonna

31:26

draw the line with Trump. were going

31:29

to make the campaign about Trump and

31:31

not us and we're gonna we're gonna.

31:33

We're gonna say what you want Trump

31:35

or do you want You know former

31:38

years of reasonable democratic roots and a

31:40

make that the choice And as it's

31:42

that's about strategic choice of in I'd

31:44

always like to see more issues, more

31:47

gender, more clarity. I think politics in

31:49

general is just too negative, but as

31:51

strategy now. Pay. It

31:53

it worked twice. They're hitting that strategy hard

31:56

and I do think they they do have

31:58

to deal with that. The tissue. do

32:00

have to deal with. How do they deal with the age issue?

32:03

I've yet to hear any

32:06

real brilliant way to make him

32:08

seem younger. Well, you

32:10

can't make him seem younger, but you

32:12

got to find a format that

32:15

works for him that is

32:17

comfortable. We found the town

32:19

hall format for Hillary was like that's where

32:21

she was able to shine. She wasn't the

32:23

best stump speech speaker. She wasn't

32:25

the best solo speech delivered. But she

32:28

was great in an interactive town hall

32:30

setting. So you've got to work with

32:32

the candidate and find what is that

32:34

setting with people that really kind

32:36

of works. I think they've got to

32:38

look for that because he

32:40

is a highly personable guy, really. That

32:43

was really one of his core attributes. People

32:47

want to think that, look, he may be old, but

32:49

he's a decent guy at the end of the day

32:51

who's going to make good decisions

32:53

for the country. I think

32:55

they can get there with that. I guess you're

32:57

saying that being on the beach in his bathing

32:59

suit is not that setting you're talking about. That

33:01

is not something we would have allowed, no. On

33:06

Trump, it's interesting that you think his

33:08

campaign is a lot better. It's definitely,

33:10

from a reporter's perspective, we all notice

33:12

that it is more

33:15

traditional, more professional in terms of

33:17

how they do events, the upper

33:19

advisors around Trump. It's

33:22

definitely much different than 2016 and 2020. Probably

33:26

right now because it's a smaller group. What

33:29

we didn't talk about are

33:31

the indictments. I

33:33

know you've dug into that and come

33:35

up with some surprising conclusions about the

33:37

indictments. I wonder if you could

33:39

just sort of lay out the

33:42

real political risks that you

33:45

found there. Yeah. No, I was

33:47

thinking about how to formulate questions that would show

33:49

it. I

33:52

said, well, suppose he's convicted in the

33:55

document case. Who would you vote for? care

34:00

about the documents. They

34:02

think, right? So I said, well, okay, what

34:04

if he's convicted in Georgia? They

34:07

cared somewhat about that. And

34:09

then I said, well, what if he's convicted

34:11

in the January 6th case of having, you

34:14

know, helped foment the riot at the January

34:16

6th? Then Biden won.

34:19

So if he really said to

34:21

me that, okay, Jack Smith

34:23

and the case that Jack Smith wants to

34:26

prosecute, that's the dangerous case. Now

34:28

that presupposes that he connects Trump

34:31

to the actual violence, that if you do

34:33

that and you do that legally and a

34:35

jury convicts him, at

34:38

that point Biden won by, he didn't win

34:40

overwhelmingly, won by four. Okay. But

34:43

it did move the race 10

34:45

points basically. Right? And the

34:47

document case was like, that

34:50

was just considered like, like,

34:52

they could have burned those. It doesn't really,

34:55

they don't care about that. That's

34:58

interesting. They don't care that because they figure

35:00

what, that presidents just can take

35:03

their documents. I mean, classified. Yeah,

35:05

because classified back there, he

35:07

wasn't selling, you know, he wasn't selling out

35:10

the country. He was, he

35:12

was, you know, looking through his own

35:14

documents that this, this

35:16

whole classified documents stuff and trying

35:18

to catch, you know,

35:20

vice presidents and presidents and secretary of states

35:22

with aha gotcha. The people

35:24

just see that as, as lawfare. They don't

35:26

really see that as a serious breach. Fomenting

35:29

a riot? Well, that's a serious, you know,

35:31

breach of public trust. That's different if,

35:33

if he's convicted of that. I guess

35:36

on the flip side, if they do actually have a trial before

35:38

election day, which is obviously very much up in the air, if

35:41

he's not

35:43

convicted, if a jury finds him not guilty,

35:46

that's going to be a huge boost and

35:48

he will have, I

35:52

mean, in other words, better than having not been

35:55

indicted at all, perhaps. That's some

35:57

high stakes politics. Yes. Yeah. Yes,

36:00

absolutely. I don't think there's any

36:02

question. If he was actually acquitted

36:04

by a jury on that, close

36:07

to the election, that would

36:09

give him a tremendous boost. Yeah,

36:12

I mean, it would just... I didn't poll on

36:14

that technically. I only really... That's a hard thing

36:16

to... I mean, I suppose

36:18

that's a hard thing to poll on because

36:20

the circumstances are so... are

36:23

unique and hard for voters,

36:25

I imagine, to answer a question, a theoretical

36:27

question like that. It

36:30

is, but I thought the insights are real.

36:32

The insights I got out of a series

36:34

of questions, and you can find them at

36:36

harvardharrispoll.com, along with every other

36:38

question and every other text. Let's

36:40

talk about one thing in

36:42

your last poll related to

36:45

Biden, and that is immigration

36:47

has emerged as a top tier

36:49

issue. I think

36:51

I heard you say recently that it's

36:54

the first time that you can remember in your

36:57

polling, rising

37:00

to this level. Give us

37:03

a sense of how important immigration is

37:05

right now according to the surveys you've

37:07

done. So we asked

37:09

voters, name your top three issues, and

37:11

then we sort it out.

37:14

And for the very first

37:16

time, immigration in this month's Harvard

37:18

Caps Harris poll came up as

37:20

the number one issue in the

37:22

country. Now, that

37:25

just has never been the case. I cannot

37:28

recall any time in... I'll

37:31

go back. Okay, there was once a time

37:33

when crime was the most important issue, maybe

37:36

in the 80s, early 90s,

37:38

right? Never a time

37:40

that I can recall immigration was

37:42

number one displacing the economy. And

37:46

you watched this over the last couple of years,

37:49

just build and build and build. And I always

37:51

had an interesting question, how

37:53

many people do you think are coming across the border

37:55

every month? And most people would say like 10,000. So,

37:57

so... So

38:00

the truth is, the more they learned the facts

38:02

that it was hundreds of thousands, the more

38:04

this was going to explode as an issue

38:06

if left unaddressed. And

38:10

the best thing going for Trump at the

38:12

moment is that the number one issue is

38:14

immigration, which he really kind

38:16

of put a stake in the ground

38:19

and was kind of right

38:21

at the heart of his candidacies. Do

38:24

you think, what's the implications

38:26

for Biden and his current

38:29

negotiations with Congress in

38:31

terms of the politics of the deal

38:34

he's trying to strike? The

38:36

politics are make a deal, pretend

38:39

that you're dragged kicking and screaming, and do

38:43

your best to take the issue off the table because the

38:46

better, what we used to

38:48

do was try to neutralize all of

38:50

the – you try to move your

38:52

issues forward, climate change, racial

38:57

equality, abortion, and

39:00

you move those forward, and then you're playing defense

39:02

on the Republican issues and you have to take them off

39:04

the table. This

39:07

was the 96th reelection strategy

39:09

essentially for Bill Clinton? Well,

39:12

yes, but I would say that I've deployed

39:14

that strategy probably 20 times

39:16

back in the day. It was

39:18

the same strategy I had with Tony Blair,

39:20

right? We had to take – the conservatives

39:22

had immigration. We had to take it off

39:24

the table. Once we got it off

39:26

the table, then we'd win on all the other issues. So

39:29

Biden has to – I don't think he

39:31

can take immigration off the table. I think

39:34

he waited too long for that, but he's

39:36

got to kind of neutralize it in some

39:38

way because its intensity – once

39:40

it got to the major cities and

39:43

once the major – the mayor started to complain

39:45

and once taxpayers realized that

39:47

there was enormous bill that would

39:49

go to citizens other than those

39:51

who just live in Texas, this

39:53

thing exploded beyond kind of –

39:55

and once people realized the numbers

39:57

too, which they think grossly under.

40:00

But it does. It

40:03

certainly does have—it echoes

40:06

of welfare reform in 1996, this

40:08

strategy. Well,

40:13

it does echo that if you've got

40:15

advance yours, take theirs off the table.

40:17

But just as a practical matter, he's

40:20

running for reelection. He

40:22

can't have his lowest rating, maybe

40:24

in my poll like 35%. His

40:27

lowest rating is on immigration. It's the

40:29

number one issue. That's—I

40:32

won't call it fatal, but let's call

40:34

that super difficult. Yeah.

40:38

Is there any sense in the immigration polling

40:40

that some of the concern

40:42

is from the left and it's

40:44

from not the

40:46

restrictionist right, but people who

40:48

want more open

40:51

border or comprehensive immigration

40:55

reform or from the left? I

41:00

would say that the concern of

41:02

immigration is not coming from the

41:04

left, that the people who say

41:07

that is an issue overwhelmingly vote

41:09

Republican. But I would say that

41:12

it would be a misreading to say

41:14

that Americans are not sympathetic to people

41:16

who were here, regardless of

41:18

how they got here, if

41:21

they're law-abiding. And

41:25

so they've always overwhelmingly

41:27

favored a path for

41:29

DACA recipients. Remember,

41:33

this issue has cried out

41:35

for comprehensive immigration reform or

41:37

bipartisan compromise for like a

41:39

decade. And

41:42

the fact it didn't happen now, everything is

41:44

like it's tilted it over to security. But

41:47

this is still an opportunity for Democrats

41:49

to get something out of it. Mark,

41:52

thank you very much for a

41:55

lively conversation. Learned a lot.

41:57

And we will talk to you soon. Thank

41:59

you. And

42:07

that's our show. Our producer is Kara Tabor.

42:09

Our senior producer is Alex Keeney. I'm

42:11

Ryan Lizza, host and executive producer of Deep

42:14

Dive. Our music is by

42:16

the mysterious Breakmaster Cylinder. Thank

42:18

you to Ben Shehoulian and Miami Podcast Studios

42:20

for a field production in Miami Beach this

42:22

week. I wish I had been there.

42:24

Tell us what you think about the show or who

42:27

you'd like to hear on Deep Dive. You can email

42:29

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